Unfortunate News for Super Micro Computer Stock Investors | SMCI Stock Analysis
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- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
- Certain types of companies that grow at rapid rates sometimes face a constraint similar to that plaguing Super Micro Computer right now.
Fool.com contributor and finance professor Parkev Tatevosian discusses the cash flow crunch happening for Super Micro Computer currently and why it is not rare for fast-growing companies to face this challenge.
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Man, you are the best channel on YT
That was a great explanation!
Glad it was helpful!
Best analysis of Super Micro that I have heard. Why wall street punishes them for raising capital to purchase inventory that they sell for what is becoming increasing margins of profit is beyond me...
Wall street punishing them for selling more stock for the reasons he stated.
Still goin in on smci. This is a long term game. Smci has the management team to navigate these risks.
agree. My buy point to add more leaves me tons of margin of safety. Not sure we'll see it dip back down to 700 though. Cash flow is expected to get positive after 2-3 quarters which sounds like a reasonable investment as long as revenue and earnings stays in line. AI infrastructure is unlikely to stop, it would take a severe market downturn overall
Short term only. You fail to see that all the big boys are waiting on the AI hardware standards to be standardized, and SMCI is just the guinea pig. Once it's set, you'll see Dell, IBM, and HPE blow SMCI solutions out of the water. They have way higher margins, more cash, and better infrastructure than SMCI. If you know how SMCI is internally you wouldn't be as confident. Enjoy the gains now, and take the profits when you feel comfortable, but if you're thinking a long term hold, you're gonna eat it.
I’m enjoying these videos. I took profit when SMCI hit 950 and it tapered off afterwards. Waiting for a soft bottom to buy back in.
Glad you like them!
Thanks for the heads-up on SMCI.🌺
Any time!
Wish Parkev was my teacher during my time at uni.
Parkev- have you thought about doing a series of training videos…like a Masterclass in how you approach analysis of businesses? For example, the most important parts of an income statement/balance sheet etc? You have the content on this site…but I would love to see a series of videos of how you approach considering the performance of a business and its’ future prospects.
I appreciate your interest, Edward. I am developing something similar to what you are asking about here.
I think that’s a great idea. Stocks have an emotional component/mob mentality frequently of course, but I would love to learn what are some of the more reliable fundamental predictors of performance.
Parkev, Is it safe to hold SMCI for the long term?
Hello! Can we get a video on Ouster!
Lol yesterday it was great news, today its bad. I like what you have to say but these Motley Fool clickbate headlines are so annoying
emotional roller coaster
just wait for tomorrow's good news
It is essential to consider the good and bad side of every investment. Rarely is any quarter all good for any business.
That's fine, but you flipped way too soon. It's only been a day. @@parkevtatevosiancfa9544
@jamie I agree
I love the depth of your analysis videos but why are you doubling down on SMCI's cashflow all of a sudden? I thought I heard before the same concern from you after their quarterly.
I hope this works out for those of you who bought SMCI but to me they are just a system integrator.
What is it you guys see that makes them any different to the likes of Dell or HP?
thanks parkev. any SELL news for us?
Nothing new.
Let him cook! New subscriber dawg, you are doing a great fucking job. Ignore the haters and keep it moving 💪🏾
Nice view into bussiness!
Thanks!
Welcome!
Smci is just following the trend in Nvda .. wait till nvda result and book profit..
DELL should squash them. They are negative cash flow. Lower margin this year(15%) than last year (17.5%). Big compensation. Raise cash through shareholders. Big inventory and already raised cash 3 times in less than 6 months. One was raised in December. Still trying to grow market share when poor cash & huge competitors with rich cash. Spending like crazy on year over year. Not good combinations. Etc. Etc. Etc.
FINALLY somebody else with a brain. Low margin biz and negative cashflow, and zero roadmap for any high margin solutions (no software or services at all). People are too blind or are uneducated in seeing that the AI hardware landscape is not standardized yet, that's why HPE, Dell, IBM, and the big boys aren't making as big of a hoot yet..... they're letting SMCI be the guinea pigs, and once the industry standard is set, BAM, the big boys will open their much bigger wallets and release their own solutions AT SCALE with their own IP and services. SMCI needs a complete overhaul of their internal archaic management and systems, but none of that is publicized, but why else are they spending so much on operations....because they're so bad.
Play SMCI for short-term and enjoy the profits, but long-term, you'll lose.
I watch you every Day, it feels now if I am visiting a friend
Robert🤔
Good company to own around $500
In January 2023 I retired and as a hobby for the first time I bought stocks.
Half into Tesla and half into Meta .
After I tripled my money on Meta I moved all that money into Tesla.
At the end of 2023 I sold my only stock Tesla 6,300 shares.
At the end of 2023 I moved all that money into Super Micro Computer and Nvidia.
After I more than doubled my money this year on Super Micro Computer i moved all that money into now Nvidia.
The only stock I have now is Nvidia 3,175 shares.
On May 22 Nvidia will give their earnings report and I will hopefully kick ass or maybe it will be my ass that gets kicked ?
Lol
We shall see.
So far in the 17 months I have been buying stocks as my " hobby " I have been extremely lucky.
❤😂🎉
What kind of business do you own?
@@livelyuphomes
I am now retired but I previously owned car dealerships, auto body shop,Goodyear Center, Battery business and 2 race cars.
Hello sir, 21 year old student here, investing heavenly in smci and nvidia also have around 60.000 euros in microsoft stock, 2030 i want to be able to retire.
New about fortinet ?
I will have more on this industry after Palo Alto reports earnings.
I’m in it for the long haul…at least 5 years.
you will lose. Short term only. You fail to see that all the big boys are waiting on the AI hardware standards to be standardized, and SMCI is just the guinea pig. Once it's set, you'll see Dell, IBM, and HPE blow SMCI solutions out of the water. They have way higher margins, more cash, and better infrastructure than SMCI. If you know how SMCI is internally you wouldn't be as confident. Enjoy the gains now, and take the profits when you feel comfortable, but if you're thinking a long term hold, you're gonna eat it
Parkev mentions he hopes management makes changes..he clearly has no idea how the company is ran or it's internal structure. The management there is archaic and are just stitting on shares protecting their own individial interests collecting a check. If they get replaced, they take secrets or procedures with them which will send internal teams into chaos. Look at how Intel, AMD, NVidia, HPE. Dell. IBM, etc view SMCI employees.... they look at their Sr titles and view them as entry level in their orgs and wouldn't even consider hiring them to lateral positions..
Why do you think they're spending so much on operations? Becuase their internal structure is trash, and none of it is changing, no matter how much they're spending. Be smart and take profits when you can. Buy dips when you see them, and rinse and repeat accordingly. But if you just sit long-term, you'll bust. Especially once DELL, HPE, IBM open their pocket books and unleash their AI solutions once the AI hardward standards are set (currently it's all in a hot bubble). Who do you think can immediately scale with better and lower cost solutions? It's not SMCI.......
LMFAO I mentioned this in your comments for months and now you mention it. LOW MARGIN BUSINESS!!!!! They offer no high margin solutions compared to the big boys, Dell, IBM, HPE. Charles and Sarah had to sell a bunch of shares at $200 just to not be in the red at the start of the year. You also FAIL to mention what other big glaring number that appeared in their earnings ....... Their margin went down!!! In an already low margin business, that is a HUGE red flag.
Their margin will increase. Believing they will continue to have lower and lower margins forever as sales grow and grow is a mistake. They may need time to catch up with their huge price move this year but I believe they are positioning themselves for ai servers and will increase pricing power over time. Nothing like nvidia but an improvement from today.
@@iknoerleful it's hardware... there's very little they can do to increase their margins. It doesn't matter what the press says, do you really think AMD, NVidia, and Intel are passing savings to them? Those big boys have Dell, HPE, IBM, etc to move their chips too...SMCI does not. They offer no real services or software that boost margins in any form.
Yes SMCI solutions are flexible and they are leading in liquid cooling design, but LQ is not standard through the industry yet due to its high costs. This also doesn't mean Dell, HPE, etc aren't working on their own LQ either. They're just using SMCI as the guinea pig for the industry to test out. Once the hardware and cooling standards are set, you'll see them boatrace SMCI solutions again. Remember the point Parkev finally hit on for this video, cash flow!!! SMCI will always have cash flow issues compared to the Dell, HPE, etc...their pockets are way deeper and infrastructure way more established and streamlined to scale quickly when needed.
SMCI isn't a bad stock but one that people can get profits out of in the short term. Long term, it's really not there (especially if you see how they're managed internally).
SMCI is a flop stock now. I would advise people to pull their money out of it, and invest in Nvidia instead. I can see supermicro plummet even further in near future.