Coronavirus Epidemic Update 7: Global Health Emergency Declared, Viral Shedding (Rec. Jan 31, 2020)
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- Опубликовано: 26 сен 2024
- Coronavirus update by pulmonologist Dr. Seheult of www.medcram.co...
This video explains the declaration of the novel coronavirus outbreak as a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO), the quarantine at March Air Force Reserve, the recent New England Journal of Medicine article case study of coronavirus incubation period and asymptomatic spread in Germany.
PLEASE NOTE: This video was recorded on January 31, 2020. Our more recent COVID-19 updates can be accessed free at our website bit.ly/3Oo3NGJ or here on RUclips: • Coronavirus Pandemic U...
We've produced each COVID-19 video with the best information we could access at the time of recording. Naturally, some videos will contain information that has become outdated or replaced by better information or research.
That said, we believe each video contains concepts that have enduring value and reviewing how the response to COVID-19 has progressed over time may be of interest to you as well.
See our first 6 videos on the novel coronavirus:
- Coronavirus Outbreak Update 6: Asymptomatic Transmission & Incubation Period: • Coronavirus Outbreak U...
- Coronavirus Epidemic Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza: • Coronavirus Epidemic U...
- Coronavirus outbreak, transmission, and pathophysiology: • Coronavirus Outbreak -...
- Coronavirus symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment: • Coronavirus Symptoms, ...
- Coronavirus Update 3: Spread, Quarantine, Projections, & Vaccine: • Coronavirus Update 3: ...
- How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment: • How Coronavirus Kills:...
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#coronavirus #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #globalhealthemergency #MedCram
"Its voluntary, as long as you don't try to leave. Then it is mandatory"
Orwell would be proud.
These are measures that HAD to be measured.
Well excuuuse them for trying to stop a virus from spreading
That's fine if it had to be done but don't call it voluntary if you can't leave. Lol
Nessie Andrew are you going to eagerly take the voluntary/mandatory vaccination?
@@sk8n854 maybe it's like this: if you're not an irresponsible asshole you get to call yourself a volunteer and be like "I'm a good guy, I'm helping!". But if you are, you need to stay put anyway.
Can’t wait for update 18: Finding rations in the apocalypse
Kelpy yes sir!!
I found a book with some rotten apples.
Update 19: Finding unspoiled body parts.
Update 12: Ok so... it didn't go so well. How corpses reanimate.
Some of you people have a sicker sense of humor than me.... Thank goodness there's still some regular people in the world. PS. If you hold the bodies underwater they will bloat without spoiling so much (if you are a pudgy pumper) And if you use salt and heat you can dry them pretty quick and shrink them down to fit real tight.
Damn the Coronavirus left China faster than my Wish package
AustriaGame Bro new virus delivery system.
Hahaha 😂😂🤣🤣
Lmao this is too funny
That is next level dark humor xD
This is amazing
damn..you just made my day🤩
The hospitalization rate is pretty high, once the hospitals are saturated people will start dying at much higher rates.
I don't know whether they can do much in hospitals anyways.
@Liam O’Neil Where did you read that? I suspect we can learn more about the source of your information from that statement than we can about this virus...
Plus all the sick folks who need to be in the hospital, but can't get a bed because there is a nCoV patient in it already.
Hospitals in Wuhan are already “saturated”
All 5 Germans who got the virus had mild symptoms and the true number of people in China who have the virus could be 90k only 200 dead not real bad
I’m honestly scared shitless. My nephew was with a friend who just came back from China. Now his friend is sick and I’m really concerned.
Would you be scared shitless if he had the flu? The flus mortality rate is higher...
Your nephew needs to get checked
@@redRAID3R brainlet
@@redRAID3R flu= 0.2 corona =2.2
@@redRAID3R the flu mortality rate is NOT higher.
My wife and I are sitting near the 'front lines' on this in Taiwan. We have cases of this Wuhan Virus. They're doing fine. Our two biggest problems are 1) People of uncertain parentage refusing to identify themselves and self-isolate; and 2) Hysteria. It would be nice if we could get the hysteria to stop, but that will take a while.
Everyone, just be calm and rational.
how can you upload this comment to youtube if thats banned in china
Jay VFX Taiwan is not the PRC
If anything the hysteria will get worse masks are already selling out on eBay and Amazon
perhaps eating foxes and everything else that moves wasnt such a good idea
@@storm3772 you mean like escargots?
Let them loose early and maybe have clusters pop up around them afterward vs keep them long and cause people a bit of inconvenience. It seems like an obvious choice to me.
Honestly, keep them longer, keep them comfortable and pay them for their time.
Keeps it safe while minimizing the inconvenience.
Absolutely.. why is this even up for debate? If I was one of those people I would demand to be kept there for two weeks. Man some people are so selfish it's unbelievable.
3 days is useless anyway
@@vayasindios3311 Yep
Seriously? Let clusters pop up around them? Let's just spread this in a hurry.
I have a question...if you are unlucky and catch this virus but recover from it, do you gain immunity from the antibodies? Also what if it mutates? A question for both scenarios.
Yes you have, but if it mutates, you have to go it thru again to have immunity: thus the flushots every year.
@@Minunmaani
China health authorities said that those who recovered can still catch it again, but no mention of chances
@@hkchan1339 oh no, that is bad thing to hear !
You have immunity to that particular strain of the virus once you have had it. However if there is mutation you may be prone to reinfection to the new strain. Sometime mutation can make virus less infective, sometime more deadly. 2% mortality is bit more than flu virus
Thank you for the replies, can only hope this situation will improve, one thing is for sure in the near future though, dark days ahead.
Can you talk about the couple in Illinois. Where the husband shows symptoms about 13-15 days after coming in contact with his wife that came back from Wuhan Jan 13, and admitted 16th. And now on the 30th the husband complains about symptoms and tests positive. That is a long time.
Jhermayne Bundy something isn’t adding up as that couple isn’t the only case there have been other cases where people haven’t showed signs until 2 weeks later and was contagious while they weren’t showing signs.
Jhermayne Bundy very true. This is a much more complicated virus than they think.
We're f?!@$#
@@rustygun7309 calm down man. The common flu you are around everyday, several times a day is way more deadly. This outbreak is a global response drill in case we have a high mortality pandemic. 2% mortality is closer to common cold than flu. So relax and be vigilant... And avoid touching your face in public
@@uprightfossil6673 lol that 2% is false bruh. Stop spreading false rumors.
China started to burn bodies in secret.
Is anybody screaming on the inside whilst maintaining composure and calm on the outside???
Only the basic people that get scared for anything, wanna bet you got scared with the Iranian retaliation? Dis you believed 3rd WW was starting? Lol And the north Korea "nuclear war capabilities" scared you to? i bet you where screaming because of all the WOM that Saddam Hussein had...
Dont worry 2.5%KR its nothing, a real pandemic will kill hundreds of thousands in months
Yes. I'm addicted to the news on this topic... FWIW I'm not in the least bit worried about climate change.
dont be scared if you live in china wear a mask and wash your hands a lot but if you dont live in china just wash your hands a fair bit
@@StoneCoolds It was just a question! I'm aware .. educated and prepared AND at peace. I'm so far down the rabbit hole its not funny. Praying for everybody to be safe.
@@StoneCoolds you are dumb. This epedemic is just getting real. Give it time and by the end of the jear we will have milions of cases. Of course we should remain calm, but underestemating this might be dumber then taking extra safety measures
"So, whats going on in this airforce base is that 195 ppl are in voluntary quarantine except for one, cause he tried to leave" LMAO
Lol.
i know, this was gold . voluntary until u want to leave
@@hthring ikr, its hilarious. Liberty has always had limits, they just don't manifest often
Michael Bay
Since they don’t know enough how contagious they possibly can be? They need to stay 3 weeks quarantined. That would be responsible!! Should be mandatory!! Common sense.
@@LGAussie 3 weeks seems a little excessive to me. 2 weeks, like the french are doing, looks like a good compromise. We already have data on this, we aren't blind and we don't need to curtail people's liberty excessively.
But hey im from spain, 'muricans should be all about being free and stuff like that.
At least 1 week should be mandatory, then 1 more of real voluntary quarantine
MedCram is probably the best medical education channel on RUclips. Great work!
Definitely hold for two weeks wtf.
At least they do so in Germany, before they get on the plane they have to agree on quarantine for 14 days after they have been evacuated. But it might already be too late anyways, 5 cases confirmed already. I live near the area. :(
@@cube2fox good luck
@@manwalkingtheearth Thanks. I'm only 32 and relatively healthy so probably it won't kill me. It sounds harsh but I'm a bit relieved that I at least don't have to worry about my parents (who would be in their 60‘s now) because they are dead already (cancer).
it's a matter of political will. Most countries are more afraid of being called xenophobic than ensuring the utmost safety for the people.
@@kenhew4641 well the rulers/leaders of those countries are dead wrong and stupid for it.
"We would NOT Recommend any travel and trade ban on China"
Yup it was China talking via WHO's mouths
It's CHO now
They are their major funding source.
@Xeno Blast and every other fuckin thing that moves
@@Pluscelamemechose they should be, sinse almost every decade they are epicenter of a potential pandemic when people are eating everything that moves in a street food standart
I'd be happy to have him as my doctor because he explains things very well and is so calming. Lol
Yup, thats what we need ... a calming voice.
The 1 person who threatened to sue and refused quarrentine should be thrown in jail for potentially jeopardizing the lives of millions of americans.
Has anyone seen any Footage or interviews with anyone from anywhere who had the Virus and was allegedly 'cured'?
I haven't.
There is no cure, I believe there was a case in Australia where they were confirmed to have it and have recovered though
Yeah, that's true, it's suspicious not a single one recovered person stepping in front of camera and calming the world down 🤔
The immune system is pretty good at fighting viral infections, as long as you’re reasonably healthy. The reason you get sick is that there is a “lag time” where your body’s immune cells “learn” to recognize and kill virally infected cells in your body.
J Smith That is why I wonder if these deaths are due to underlying health problems and also the ages of these deaths that have occurred
@@pancakeninja445 There was a 10 yrs old kid who died, he had no health problem previously, I think. That's the worst part of it, it's like russian roulette:you make it or not.
You are phenomenal at putting the information in laymen terms! I could watch all day! Thank you!!!
Amazing the way he explains so precise and to the point .
For a doctor, your penmanship is quite legible. Kudos.
IKR? Sometimes I wonder how he ever managed to get a licence, I thought bad handwriting was mandatory for physicians. 😂
I think they should hold the passengers for at least 14 days. Observe and use them for a case study here in America. Two of the patients on the plane supposedly had vomiting blood etc. Even if they are negative after 14days, then release them, but, require follow up for additional testing? They should wear masks, goggles, gloves as well when in public?
Keep them for sure! Small inconvenience and cost compared to potential effects
The gloves and masks arent helping.
Wash your hands.
Do you have the source of the vomiting report?
Indonesia is holding passengers in incubation in a epidemiology specialist hospital for 28 days. :') Indonesians are so lucky.
@Tinky how the fk would you know if two people are vomiting blood on the plane. Share your source or stop spreading idiotic rumors. Were you on the plane? Saw a video? People can type anything on the internet. The mortality rate is 100% and people leak blood throughout every orifice and China and every single other country affected is covering it up (can you tell I'm being sarcastic). I don't deny this could be a horrible pandemic, and they should absolutely keep the passengers for 2 weeks. However, don't spread random stuff about vomiting blood.
lol. “Voluntarily, except for one.” Sounds very voluntary....
He tried to leave. You literally left out a detail to make a bad joke. Wow.
HMSBlackPrince How did you manage to confuse yourself with what I said. Just stfu
Ray Rogers It isn’t voluntary if, when someone wants to leave, they are refused the ability to leave. It’s essentially doublespeak. There is an illusion of choice with no actual options. It’s a great tool for controlling people, but it’s fundamentally wrong in my mind.
Ray Rogers It isn’t voluntary if, when someone wants to leave, they are refused the ability to leave. It’s essentially doublespeak. There is an illusion of choice with no actual options. It’s a great tool for controlling people, but it’s fundamentally wrong in my mind.
He was involuntary so he gets a locked cage.
Hell, if I were one of those people who is being held for 72 hours, and given what you just demonstrated, I would volunteer to stay quarantined for two weeks - not just for myself but for anyone I might come into contact with.
@Tman... I will advise everyone living in the US to read over your life insurance policies. They as well as automotive policies have stipulations in them concerning dying due to terroristic activities. If this is due to a genetic release, no Insurance payouts to your beneficiaries.
Your calculation of the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) appears flawed. To get the CFR one must compare the number of deaths today with the number of cases when that cohort of patients were infected. This is incredibly difficult to do accurately so early on. SARS took around 4-7 days from infection to first symptoms (range 1-14) and it took 14 to 62 days from infection to death. So, we have a numerator today of 213, but for the demoninator we must look at the number of infected 14 days ago. Assuming test results take an average of 7 days after infection to allow for testing time and sx to appear, that means we should look at confirmed case numbers 7 days ago. Infections have been rising at around 35% for the last couple of weeks, which means around 10x rise per week. That is to say, there were 1/10th as many confirmed infected a week ago as today (the actual number on 24th Jan was 878 so that calcuation is close enough). That would mean a CFR of 24%, over double that of SARS. If the average time to death is higher, then the CFR will be much higher. These are all educated guesses in view of the lack of data at this stage, indeed if the average time to death approaches 21 days then the CFR using this method rises well above 100%, which shows how vague all this is. The only way to get a CFR of 2% is if there are 10x as many cases as we currently think but who are asymptomatic or have such mild Sx that they have not contacted a physician for testing. Bear in mind that since it takes over a week to develop Sx and get a result of Ix back, we expect to have 10x as many infected today as we know about because they have no Sx or results yet. That is to say, around 10,000 infected today. The current rates of rise cannot be maintained for long, if simply because the virus will run out of people on the planet to infect in less than 2 months at this rate. Bear in mind that the Chinese have more detailed figures and are taking unparalleled steps to contain this disease. I am skeptical they would wreck their economy and quarantine cities and build hospitals in a week for a CFR of 2%. The last time they did anything approaching this the CFR was 10%. Furthermore, the current CFR is based on countries with functioning health care systems that can ventilate all the serious cases. The capacity of even the most advanced health care system to ventilate all affected patients will rapidly fail at the current rate of rise, and the CFR would then rise sharply. For example, if we are forced to decide to only ventilate people under 65 years of age due to being overwhelmed. We may have to go back to ventilating by hand in shifts, as happened with polio outbreaks in the 40s, but that relied on adults who were immune to polio ventilating children who were not. The next week or two will be critical as we look for China's astonishing response to take effect and the case rise to slow dramatically. And for whether other countries can contain their outbreaks. (Edit - apologies, this should have been posted on one of your other videos about CFRs, I have posted it there now. Robbie)
To MedCram
I just want to say thank you for your videos on this epidemic outbreak. I have learned so much from your videos about this virus. What it can do to the body, how it spreads, and so on.
I have learned more from you than i have from the main stream news channels on the telly.
So once again myself and probably everybody here who watches your videos thank you very much.
Bringing anyone from ground zero into the US is a bad idea! The least our supposed health officials could do is quarantine them for 2 weeks.
On second thought, why don’t we give them Super Bowl tickets, especially to the super spreaders and let’s see what happens to the public health? Unreal.
I think the best course of action is to put them at airport terminals, so that the plane HVAC systems can filter the viruses out. That's how HVAC filters and viruses work, right? /s
unlike SARS, for this virus EVERY infected is a super spreader with a rate of 2-3 persons per carrier.
Unreal
*Psh*
The CDC must have seen my comment here. There is now a mandatory quarantine of 14 days for each of the evacuees!
@@habibj That's great to hear, can you link me this?
Thank you so much for these updates! So many people are hitting the panic button. Real information is the antidote to that.
Good points about the mortality rate. I suspect we'll find it to be higher than 2%, but not as high as SARS or MERS.
What's more concerning is the R0, which seems to be somewhere from 2.0 to 3.0 (it could go down in 1st world nations). This indicates that if it completely escapes quarantine efforts, then whether the mortality rate is 2% or 5% (which personally I think is a more realistic figure) you're looking at an extremely large number of deaths either way. I don't advocate panic, but the WHO is under-reacting. A global several day quarantine for all goods & travelers is entirely justified.
kathrynck over 1000 is in a critically state
@@jonastrex05 If there are far more people in a critical state than there is available medical facilities, then the mortality rate could rise dramatically too. There's also the potential for permanent lung damage in survivors. This could have far reaching consequences completely aside from it's mortality rate.
Silver lining: the illegal organ trade in China is probably doing very poorly right now.
2% mortality rate is also very high compared to about 0.01% of the seasonal flu. I think the seasonal flu has a contagious rate of about 1.4 compared to 2-3 in coronavirus. So the coronavirus is significantly more contagious and much more deadly. This could easily result in millions of deaths world wide.
The danger seems extremely high but nobody seems to acknowledge it. I'm shocked.
I think when it's all said and done it'll be 5-6% and it seems to be easily transmitted...
I don't he mentioned it's airborne as well it can mean the difference if someone coughs or sneezes and lingers in the for 3minutes or 30minutes or is it even airborne at all China says it is
2019 ncov already has more deaths than mers and sars for the given time interval
This is the best site i have found so far. Keep up the good work!
lets just make a challenge, ban flight for just 30days, thats it, lets just see what will haplen?
Solomon The Great sounds great in theory. I am all for it, but you need to realise all the people who’s family are across the world from each other, they would never cut all air travel like that. I believe they should but it’s quite unlikely
Exactly, I don't get why they are still allowing Chinese people to fly. It doesn't matter whether or not they are from Wuhan cause the virus has clearly spread to other parts of China already. Airport screenings don't work since the incubation period is so long
Sandy Airport screenings don’t work! Someone can be still spread the virus before and EVEN after symptoms pass.
According to the video, the incubation period is 3 days, but that may only be in certain folks. To your point the incubation period is likely higher overall.
@@advdad1129 the world economy will collapse lol
teddy tatyo Which means people dying. Somehow most of the public fail to realise that.
You have the best insight on this topic I've found on RUclips
My question now is after recovery...at what point is a patient no longer contagious?
@ No, the virus can live on surfaces for roughly 7-9 days so we can assume that as long as a body is capable of holding the virus it will contain it. Even after the body decomposes it won't get rid of the virus, you would need to wait for the body to decompose and then wait 7-9 days after it has completed decomposing for the virus to die.
When you find no more virus in him
even after recovering from the symptoms, the patients still tested positive for the virus which means it can still spread. as there's currently no cure or vaccine available, you can assumed that once you've got the virus, the virus stays in your body indefinitely
They shouls test negative for the virus at least two times to be considered recovered from it
Who the hell knows...that's the problem, we don't know
Get your plague doctor masks ready, fellas.
That's what I thought when I watch these videos
I'll provide the "bird seed".
@@judywaddell6065 either we do this or just never go out lol
Surprisingly, those were probably effective, at least most of the time. The "beak" was stuffed with wool or similar material, which acted as a primitive respiratory filter. Not as effective as a modern one, of course, but better than nothing at all. It at least lessened the amount you were exposed to and if you were a healthy person, you had a chance of fighting off the small amount you were exposed to.
Uh, I think an N 95 respirator mask can suffice lol
If this Corona virus is so infectious, I assume the people on the plane with this Index Person especially the people sitting next to him/her have also been infected?
Hazel Dean Was thinking the same...and the hotel they stayed in, taxis they rode in, etc...
Hazel Dean yup but Governments and Health Officials: We don’t talk about that ..... it’s safe don’t think about it we have it under control 😆😖😓😪
Likely every one who breathed the cabin air since it is circulated.
My suspicion is that it is transmitted via handshake (and not washing their hands).
If the index person coughed sideways then it is possible that the passenger besides her can be infected. But I doubt it because index person didn't show symptoms (no coughing). So transmission is via hands (surface then to other people's hands or directly to other people's hands).
You are my go to when it comes to understanding this.
Thank you for addressing the mortality rate calculation. I was and continue to worry the mortality rate is much higher. Your logic makes good sense to me.
No, it's still much higher. All he said was that there's not enough info yet, and he's right. The reason why it's much higher is because there's always going to be lagging numbers until it ends. You can find out how bad it really is with a little info. For instance if they had info on the first 100 ppl that died on when they first showed syptoms to the time of death. Then you can extrapolate those numbers and find the average amount of time. Finding an exact time of contraction would be impossible. Let's say from syptom to death is just 4 days. That 4 days as far as mortality rate goes it dramatically increases, especially when you think of the amount of ppl this will effect.
@@nathanhensn8717 Yes, it seems the mortality rate will most likely be higher than what is calculated from current rates. MedCram acknowledges this while explaining that for the time being, with the information we have, calculations based on current rates is the only reasonable method. I think everyone agrees the mortality rate will likely increase in retrospect. The question is, will the increase be trivial or significant. I don't intend to wait and see how it turns out, if the numbers are honest, accurate, and complete. I am making plans and preparing for a significant increase in the mortality rate now.
Because its exponential growth the amount of people newly sick is much higher then at the late stage. That's the essence of exponential growth.
@@volkhen0 Yes the exponential growth is a factor but I think more importantly, it's comparing apples to oranges. The death happened today whereas the individual that died today contracted the illness some days prior when the total confirmed cases were fewer. That time difference between the two statistics is much greater than the difference between an exponential curve and a linear increase for example.
We're woefully ignorant of what is going on in China. We live in western countries where transparency is relatively much more in effect, and freelance media are free to operate in pursuing the truth and holding leaders to account, instead of being silenced and prosecuted, as China has been doing in the last couple of days to anyone releasing content which might contradict their narrative. There are a number of reasons why our current analysis is completely meaningless:
*The regime has been systematically covering up the numbers.*
In order to understand this you need some background in the Regime and how it operates. The Chinese communist party delegates responsibility to avoid accountability. There ought to be a scapegoat every time a disaster happens, and this is a catastrophic disaster. The mayor of Wuhan understanding his predicament tried to cover up the situation until it became too big to contain. And then in turn everyone in the pyramid does the same. The administration demands containment and those carrying it out will tend to underplay the situation one by one until we arrive at massively manipulated figures. It's very reminiscent of the chernobyl disaster, and how it was handled by the Russian communist party. There is much to say here but it demands whole books to be read on how polities like that operate.
For us it's much more important to listen to the voices of the Chinese people. You won't find anyone who agrees with the government figures. There is one thing every source agrees with, that the virus is so widespread to the whole of China that there are cases everywhere and people are beginning to panic and flee to other countries in the hopes that they will be treated better there.
*There are not enough tests to confirm the number of cases.*
Chinese medical professionals are incredibly low on equipment, from masks to testing kits. The weary professionals who have leaked information are concerned that the scale of the epidemic is unclear and they're not capable of releasing any figures. The sick who are dying of the virus and haven't been confirmed will not be included in the tally, and this accounts for a disproportionate number of cases.
*China is unprepared to take proper procedure to track down the correct figures*
Epidemiologists have procedures to track down the virus and contain it. Every time a confirmed case occurs the patient is asked who they've come into contact with, and then these people are tested. China is not prepared and doesn't have the equipment to carry out this kind of task. The Chinese people are also incredibly frightened to present to a hospital with flu like symptoms knowing that if they don't have it they would get it, and that even if they do have it the hospitals are completely full and the personnel are not capable of treating them. This has an upside and a downside. It could mean that the number of cases is much higher, but that people are recovering at home, making the mortality rate even lower. However, leaks are stating something worrisome, namely that funeral homes are completely booked and cannot fulfill all the demand. They've been carrying bodies in trucks to cremate them en masse. Alongside these leaks we've had people doing statistics, comparing the number of deaths last year relative to this year, and the results do not add up to the official narrative. If the Chinese authorities are so busy and the situation is so chaotic the present number of dead will not be known for weeks to come.
*The numerator and denominator are not compared properly*
This is explained in the video so I needn't go into detail. Suffice it to say that the mortality rate could be 3-10 times worse if calculated properly, which is the number of confirmed cases 10 days ago to the number of dead in the present.
All of these are to some extent rumors or hearsay. They're based on what some Chinese leak has said, but altogether a cumulative case can be made that the situation is much more grave than the Chinese government would have us believe. What we have to decide is which narrative is more credible, that of an analysis of the leaks, or the official narrative of one of the least transparent, most authoritarian and immoral regimes to ever exist in history. If it were a spectrum the most reasonable thing to do would be to lean on the side of the leaks, and be skeptical of the official numbers, while not elevating everything that comes out of wechat to the status of fact and panicking because of what one source has said. We need to be critical and pragmatic. The situation is not so dire right now for us living in western countries, but if measures are not taken to contain the spread like we did with ebola successfully we could have a very dangerous pandemic in our hands.
Well said.
This virus will stay among us for a long long time.
It'll be and before and after this madness.
There's nothing we can do but stay alert and increase our antisocial levels.
No
It will not survive in summer season
Why would increasing antisocial levels help?
@@rvanhees89 I think they mean do not socialise, rather than do anti-social things.
@@whatsthislifefor9844 don't bacteria spread and multiply in warm hot environment faster? Thus spring/summer is the perfect time for viruses and stuff like that to bloom
@@andrewjonas6437 why do people get sick in winter more often?
My troubled thoughts are on the fact more have died than recovered/cured.
😑 Same... But the thing is they can effect again even though they recovered once.... It is severely contagious...
@@sai9439 This virus will be around for a while, until the vaccine is discovered, people will get infected until then if drastic measures are not being taken! :(
@@raivorogoss5940 hope vaccine will be out within short time... 🙏🏻😥
@@sai9439 A vaccine will easily take a year to develop and test. Way too late.
@@cube2fox Yes, and the only thing to do is stop the spread, but how do you stop the spread if you do not have any symptoms?
Just now on BBC channel 2 confirmed cases in the UK 🇬🇧 😷
Government have no common sense what so ever
I'd like to point out that when we are talking about CCP, history shows that they would just pick the less severe cases (tends to be negative result) and test them, so to deliberately underreport the positive cases. Many cases include the fatal death toll would never get reported. In China, it's impossible for anyone outside to get a straight figure.
wrong to let those people from the base go after 72 hours ,,,
Imcubation known to be up to 14 days....ok guys 3 days are up free to go!
In Germany before they are even allowed on the plane they have to agree to stay for 14 days in quarantine after arrival. If they already show symptoms at the airport in China they are left back.
It really would be better to keep them for fourteen days as far as I can see.
"they are all there voluntarily..... apart from one who tried to leave and had to be forced" 😂
Thank you please keep us updated
It is so refreshing to see such an informative video among so many conspiracy theorists.
Thank you for your work.
Thank you for adressing this
From the various news, it seems the virus is deadly in those with weak immune Systems. Does this mean that eventually everyone could be a carrier but it can only have effects when the persons immune system is very weak?
No in a healthy person they'll begin to develop antibodies within a few days and the body will kill the virus within a couple weeks. Similar to a really bad cold.
People who are old, babies, born with weak immune systems, cancer patients, AIDS and HIV are people who are very at risk.
Most people in their teens/20s/30s will have a really bad chest cold for a week and it's gone, but they're still contagious which is why you should stay home if sick.
Cole Milton that’s very reassuring
Ohhh damn your right.
As a person who had just finished chemo, I’m kinda stressed 😄
It will be such an epic fail, to beat cancer and then immediately die from coronavirus 😄
My soul will be hella pissed
@@schmuckballs Ouh, Makes sense. Thanks for the explanation!
*Hold them for 2 weeks.* Give them everything the desire but keep them quarantined!
That's the only firewall we've got.
Odd, I thought they were staying at March Air Force Base for two weeks? Not 72 hours.
They are debating if they should release them after 72 hours.
Great work I love how you break down all these medical terms into digestible chunks us non medical people can clearly understand. 👍🏾🙏🏾
Thank you
0:50 satisfying circle
more like an ellipse
My father was so scared that he bought n95 respirators
So wear them...
Each size of mask is custom fit, you have to get tested to make sure there are no leaks. If the mask is too small it can leak and you would get exposed, it's the same if it's too big. Buying a mask without a fit test is false security
Sounds like a very smart man to me.
I'm getting a military bio mask.
Do you know that you can only wear it once
First two cases just confirmed in the Uk about 15 minutes ago on BBC News
Edit: from BBC News- “It is understood the patients were staying in a hotel in York before being taken overnight to a specialist centre in Newcastle.”
Only news I get is about Brexit...lol
where are they
Just read about this and no comment made on whereabouts the cases are
He is right. 2 are confirmed in UK, don't know where exactly, and 2 in Italy
@@Blacksheeps4929 york
Any cases in Ireland? I got bacterial pneumonia a month ago and really don't want pneumonia again especially if it's viral
@Laureta Huit TF you're having a jolly time aren't you 🤣
Draconian Just stay away from public places for time being wash hands frequently
@Laureta Huit Which guy? The guy who cleans his room?
Bus tour from Hubei was in ireland last week so most likely we have some undiagnosed cases as does most countries in the developed world
Bacterial pneumonia is far worse
I’m still nervous about this, but this explanation is calming me down a bit
Thank you for your time and updates 😊❤️
Thanks for your comment
Your voice is so calming tbh
Thank you
Thank you so much for your calm logical interpretation of the facts! Here are two questions
1. Germany. Did the Chinese woman infect everyone on the plane with her?
2. Illinois, USA. An elderly man caught it from his wife who had been to China. Did everyone on her plane get infected?
they dont want to say it and start a panic but yes most definitely
Where’s update 8!! Hey they shut down that John Hopkins real time map that was a great resource but you need a password now and I found no way of signing up only signing in
Thank you for keeping us up to date on the virus without hyping the fear.
Information dispels fear. Most other sources of information are gloom and doom.
It’s a matter of national safety They shouldn’t have a choice wether to stay two weeks or not
I read that this outbreak actually started in November. Patient zero and then became gradually worse until it exploded in January.
What I felt was strange was that I used to work at Heathrow Airport in the very same terminal where travellers came and flew back to Wuhan. I was in close proximity to them. Many were wearing masks - this was in the middle of December.
I started to develop a cold, couldn't shake it and then developed into a bad cough, I had a nasty fever and then I caught the Flu.
Now I know it is cold and Flu season but it did make me wonder. None of my family caught what I had so it was likely just the Flu.
Was the mask wearing just a recent thing in that terminal? Asking because Asians (China, Japan, Taiwan, ...) are known for wearing masks a lot even when there is no loose virus around.
@@A_Box To be honest, until I was made aware of the virus, I haven't paid a lot of attention to it.
There were a lot of Chinese wearing face masks though throughout my time in that terminal. But you're right, it is a particularly common occurrence.
Same here but still lots of liquid from lungs when i lay down. So take an allergy pill which helps somewhat.
Many thanks!
Thank you for these sane explanation videos! Very helpful in the mids of all the hysteria and overexaggerated news! :)
Thanks for the comment
"overexageration"!? The opposite is much more of a problem, many news outlets say that the seasonal flu is more dangerous, which is completely false, the new virus is more contagious and more deadly than the regular flu. Irresponsible people play the dangers down.
Trurl calm down will you, let’s just see it through and see how bad it really is once the dust has settled
Trurl Statements like yours are the reason that people panic. So you are disagreeing with the news media? Please give examples/specifics. You state that this is more deadly than the flu. Again, please give us your scientific data source. If you do not have any of those then you need to stop with comments like that because you scare people.
@@jillfeatherman5523 Here are my sources according to:
worldometers dot info slash coronavirus
The site provides primary sources.
Coronavirus transmission rate:
2.0 - 3.1
Coronavirus fatality rate
2%
Seasonal flu transmission rate:
1.3
Seasonal flu fatality rate:
0.01%
Which means the coronavirus is much, much more dangerous than the seasonal flu!
You mentioned that these 4 people are NOT in the hospital. They are still contagious even after symptoms have gone away as you stated in the video. Why aren't they in the hospital and isolated?
Also, yesterday we got our two first cases in Italy. Yay!
Same with the UK :(
@@LBEmpress But not everywhere. Lol.
Didn't they remained in boat?
@@TakZ000 no those were tested and it seemed like nobody had CoV.
These two cases are Chinese tourists and they have nothing to do with that cruise. Still they were staying in a hotel in a really crowded Street in Rome and they came in contact with the hotel staff who is now being checked for CoV
Wow, I bet the "practicalities of holding them for 72 hours vs 2 weeks" seems like a no brainer now..
2 confirmed cases reported in India too..i'm scared shitless to even go out now
Where 2 I've only seen 1 case???
That are suspected.. there hv been a lot of suspect cases
9 in Australia, I’m scared too.
Well the irrational fear narrative is working. Now how about calming down a bit and drinking a nice cup of tea. The mortality rate is 2%...not 10-25% like so many other common viruses you come in contact with. This global response is a test for when the serious viruses start to spread. Peace
2 out of the billion people? Call down dude
So... I'm an American, I'm currently living in and here in China. I am in Anhui province, bordering Hubei.
I have spent almost two years in China.
I have great issues with these facts and statistics because when people here get sick, they can go to the hospital or doctor and the doctor would literally tell them to just drink some hot water, or give some pills that are a plant extract.
There are messages to wear masks and everyone I see if I go outside is doing so, however, there has been no mention of washing your hands, or using your elbow to sneeze or cough into, or avoiding touching your face/ hair or mouth. They lack an overall knowledge of proper hygiene in general and most doctors here also lack knowledge on a western science based Foundation. So when the mortality rate is so high here and the numbers are sky rocketing for infections diagnosed. You have to understand... people don't clean public spaces with soap or bleach, no antiseptic is used in cleaning. People have not been educated to maintain a standard of hygiene by washing. hands. regularly with soap. (95% of bathrooms here don't have soap, I have been to hospitals where the bathroom don't have hand soap as well and you can see dried blood stains on the floor)
If hygiene matched that of a western society, and if people were being treated in a similar fashion to there. Given antivirals, treatment for fever etc. I'm sure both the mortality rate and the spread of the virus would be greatly qualmed.
They need to make an Outbreak 2 with Dr. Seheult casted as Dustin Hoffman's trusty sidekick...
I loved that movie
What they don't tell you is that only about 75 people have recovered.
What I would like to know is for how long we stay contagious, if we can carry the virus for months like mononucleosis...
Typhoid Mary was a carrier of typhoid although she had no symptoms. This serms like a crucial question to ask. How long will these people be infectious?
I’m fairly sure this is not the case for other coronaviruses. So why would it be for this one? And I also read that it generally cannot stay in your system for very long due to your cells forming an immunity towards it, but I could be wrong. It was in an article about the vaccine Inovio, a lab in San Diego, has made but it was just made private and now I have to pay for it which I won’t do.
I don't think this question will be answered anytime soon. Because if you find a patient, it's unethical (possibly even illegal) not to help him/her get rid of it.
@@baganatube It's a virus, not bacterial/fungal/etc. Vaccines merely train your body, we don't have weapons against active infections, only symptomatic treatments like fever-reducers.
The delay on finding out is having to wait to see it happen.
Great explanation, thank you.
I would stay 2 weeks voluntarily
Ever the calm voice in a sea of turmoil 🇨🇦 thankyou
I’m very concerned about the fact that people are A-symptomatic. I personally am coming from Shenzhen and have a pregnant wife and son. My son has been diagnosed with bronchitis as a result of the influenza bug that he had 3 weeks ago. Many of the symptoms cross over so we are quite panicked. My wife and I have showed no symptoms and have been basically quarantined for the past 7 days. That said, we also decided to leave China and are enroute to Canada by way of Hong Kong tomorrow. We have kept very close tabs on our son’s temperature as his fever has been subsiding, but to say we are concerned is an understatement. We don’t want to infect our loved ones so will be making our way to a Canadian hospital as soon as we land. That said, on the mainland we were tested at a western clinic which cleared us and diagnosed our son with bronchitis. I guess my question is how could a clinic diagnose my son with bronchitis and not Corona when all the tests I am aware of are only testing for viral load and both are viruses?
Ps. Thanks for your work and information on these videos. They are (by my estimation) the most informative videos online right now! Cheers!
John Sorensen stay safe and be quick to action good luck
John Sorensen: The best method of combating any infection to date is isolation. It surprises me that you have chosen to travel at this time. All the best for your son's well being.
Kazzana ... I agree with you, but when we made the decision it was because of my wife’s pregnancy and our desire to ensure that she does not contract this virus. Also, there is a work stoppage and our faith in the level of individual care we would receive if we were to have issues is shaken. In addition, since my son was diagnosed with bronchitis we assumed that the symptoms would subside, which they have for the most part so that has given us some relief. We are confident that we don’t have the virus, but this new information is making us wonder.
Thankyou for the update!
Is there a home remedy? I'm thinking about if this goes full tilt and the hospitals are overwhelmed.
The home remedy is stay at home. If there is no vaccine, then taking a concoction of honey and lemon won't work I suspect
@@Eoin_D
I was in line at the grocery store. The lady at the register started coughing. First a little then that real deep cough without covering up. Then Woodey Harrelson behind me shot her. He really hates zombies.
Thank you, sir.
Rather than talking about mortality rate, how about the cure rate? As of today from 9809 infected cases, 179 people survived. Does it mean the chance to survive only 1.8 %?
It's too soon to define the mortality rate.
Billy Bun that could be the case but I think it’s important to note that the recorded survival cases are of those who went to a hospital because their symptoms were bad enough to be treated. There could be many more of people who had symptoms that weren’t too bad and got over them but we don’t know because they never went to get recorded at a hospital.
Thank you for providing such important information to the rest of humanity.
We The People. Where We Go One, We Go All.
Great update! Thank you :) On March Air Force Base: Don't they PCR-test them all? Despite them being so many?
Thank you
3 questions. Why does it take such a long time to get a a vaccine going? Are they doing PCR testing at the airforce base? Could PCR miss a viral load?
Circadin they have to test and test and test BEFORE they can even test on people if they get it wrong there could be bad side effects it has to be safe to use and that takes time
Thank You!
Thank you for the comment
You keep saying that we suspect that the number of cases is way higher, so mortality rate would be way lower. But, we also suspect for deaths to be way higher than reported, so mortality rate wouldn't fall off that much. Of course we don't know either of those yet.
But honestly would you really believe China? This reminds me of Communist regime in USSR around Chernobyl disaster. Official death toll is still 31. We all know it's way pass that number.
@Louis Robertson First of all I said "reminds me". And exactly what kind of knowledge am I claiming? I'm just saying that I don't trust the official CCP numbers. If you do, that is your, honestly, problem.
There's 3 possibilities, 1: Higher infection with these deaths toll, results in lower death ratio.
2: both infection and death numbers are higher in the same proportions which makes no difference in death ratio but makes it in infection ratio.
3: Number of deaths is higher in proportion than what they telling. Results in higher death ratio
@Liam O’Neil There are a lot of rumors which you should take with a grain of salt. Though I'd still trust those rumors more than the CCP.
Very informative, thanks
Nah man, we gotta go to Greenland
Please do daily updates. At this point your report is better than any other. Also, if it's true that raising indoor humidity helps slow virus spread, notify people.
So it means that even you recovered from infections you're still contagious and you still need to stay at a separated quarantine area.
Which is very interesting, normally with viruses (especially the flu) are more contagious before you show symptoms or when you start to show symptoms, with exception to the flu only having a 24-48 incubation time. If you are indeed very infective before and after symptoms it will be intresting to see what happens.
Very good, you at least addressed the problem with trying to derive a fatality rate by using current deaths and current cases which few do. Also the first presentation of a real world scenario I have seen. Thanks.
why are there currently more death's (213) then people that recovered (187)? just a bit worried.
By recovered what do you mean? Like their immune system killed the virus ? Or they are still carrying virus but are in stable condition ?
Awesome thank you !
why not holdem for 6 days? not quite as draconian yet better than not long enuf.
But medics seem to be saying that incubation period could be 14 days, so six days is not long enough.
trust by hr 30 they will up it to full 2 weeks they are just trying to not create panic
i remember when i had the flu like 4 years ago
i couldn't even drink water without throwing up ,
it makes me wonder if i could survive getting
the corona .
The same ... When i was suffering from food poisoning
I had that same one, I thought I was going to die. I lost 8 lbs in 4 or 5 day and I'm already thin.
Had similar thing with a stomach bug, could not keep anything down including water, I was really young like 8 was the worst sickness I have ever experienced hope that ever happens again
Dope Action Big Factz boost your immune system. The very best and fastest way to do this is to limit food intake by fasting this allows your body to repair and heal bc the blood supply doesn’t have to constantly be redirected to digestion. You don’t have to fast the entire day, you can have an early dinner and skip breakfast and that would be significant for your body. You might also add juicing some fruits and veggies to help boost your immune system as well. And take extra vit C. God bless.
@Loraine Jones you are sooo lucky you didn't take that med, I took 1 and it broke me out in a rash all over, it sucked, th when I started looking it up and saw tons of pictures of babies with the same rash from it
great set of very well analyzed n-COV videos!
according to the numbers published there are more people that have died from the disease ( 213) than that have recovered form the disease ( 187)
the number of death is easy to establish, but how do they establish the number of recovered?
there have been thousands of cases for weeks, did the other 3000 or so cases just disappear?
Medcram has been on these updates like no other - the views are racking up like crazy too
First two British cases confirmed the government won't say who, where they came from, where they have been or where they are being treated.
Some stats the Government have shared.
1,466 passengers and 95 staff arrived in the UK on direct flights from Wuhan between 10 and 24 January.
162 of the passengers have already left the UK
760 are now outside of the incubation period
The patients are in Newcastle.
Why wouldn't you look at deaths vs recovered? All the cases are gonna end up as one these 2, but if you look at that, it's like a 70% mortality
Also, i saw that even the recoveries have lasting damage, scar tissue in the lungs, COPD, those people will never be the same
Because recovered would take even longer, skewing the result towards even higher mortality. But that number (70%) could be used as a roof. And the lowest (2%) as a floor. Somewhere in between is the real mortality rate. I calculated it to 28% but it was based on a single case and thus is wildly inaccurate. More info is needed.
Because that’s not accurate it can take weeks to recovery so thousands of people are likely still in process of recovering so it skews the results
cause thats the # of sever ilness 90% of infected dont get tested looking at death versus released alone doesnt show a true death rate