NFL Week 16 Best Bets 2024 | Top NFL Spread Picks

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  • Опубликовано: 29 дек 2024

Комментарии • 30

  • @TheBottomLineView
    @TheBottomLineView  10 дней назад +1

    Gronk spike da like

  • @dannyalvarado3067
    @dannyalvarado3067 10 дней назад +5

    Best bet of the week is rams -3 vs jets

  • @philibusters
    @philibusters 8 дней назад

    Some of my thoughts on the Eagles Commanders game (largely stolen from other people's thoughts)
    Commanders offense vs. Eagles defense:
    1. Jalen Carter had quick vertical penetration that really disrupted the Commanders run game the first time. Expect the Commanders to have plays to counter that. The two obvious run plays to counter that are Traps and Whams.
    2. Zach Baun and Cooper DeJean are a big what makes Fangio scheme work so well. Baun as the hook defender has arguably been the best coverage LB in the NFL this year he cover so much ground. The Commanders have to figure out how to create room underneath. I don't know how they do that, but one possible avenue is playaction if they can get them, particularly Baun to trigger downhill.
    3. How can the pass protection hold up. With Fangio's zone scheme, there will be opportunities to scheme up favorable matchups through things like motion for McLaurin. But even if it you can scheme up favortable matchups, the QB still has to have time to let the receiver win and that is not instanteous. That is what makes it a tough matchup for the Commanders offense, even if a play works exactly as it is schemed up to work, it could result in a negative play if the protection cannot hold up and the Eagles have a good pass rush.
    Prediction: Commanders are a bit better than the first game where they only had four days to gameplan and they were not ready for Jalen Carter's quick penetration that disrupted the run game, but the Eagles defense still outtalents the Commanders offense and the Commanders only have limited succss.
    Eagles offense vs. Commanders Defense:
    1. Jalen Hurts is not a bad QB. He is probably somewhere right amongst the middle in the terms of the 32 NFL starting QB's, but he may be the weakest link for an offense that has two great WR's in Brown and Smith, a great RB in Barkley, a good TE in Goedert, and probably the second best O-Line in football behind onlyt he Lions. Therefore I would try to make him beat you, so I would focus on taking away the run. As a QB, Hurts is a great runner, great out of structure, has a nice deep ball, but his limiting factor is he very meh as a pure pocket passer. When it comes to reading out the defense within the structure of the offense he is a low level starter quality QB. I kind of see him as the opposite of say a Jared Goff. Goff is not dynamic he is a pure pocket passer that cannot scare you with his running ability or do much outside of structure and struggles when the other team gets quick pressure. But if given time in a clean pocket he can execute the offense at a really high level. Thus Goff is not much of a floor raiser because on a bad team with a bad O-Line and bad receivers, his lack of running ability and ability to make plays out of structure and and lack of ability to handle quick pressure means he doesn't really raise your floor that high. He could QB a bad defense for sure. On the other hand, he is a ceiling raiser because if you put talent around him, he can operate within structure really well. Hurts is much more of a floor raiser than Goff, but not near as much of a ceiling raiser because he just not near as good as within structure. Given the amount of talent the Eagles have on offense, I don't think he is a great fit for them. He is not a bad QB, I just think he is their weakest link.
    Hurt's lack of ability as a pure pocket passer is mitigated by the fact that he plays behind a great O-Line and at 3.14 seconds to throw is tied with Lamar Jackson for the longest time to throw in the NFL, so even if hes not great at it, its a little bit on easy mode for him as he usually has time. I don't love the idea of making Hurts beat you given their receiving weapons and that O-Line but it gives you a better shot than the alternative which is playing two deep safeties and trying to defend the run against that O-Line and RB with a light box. If Hurts get hot, he can absolutely torch the Commanders defense. But there is a greater chance of variability. Maybe he drives the Eagles for two quick TD's and it looks hopeless than takes a bad sack on each of the next two possessions that allows the defense to get off the field. If you play with light boxes it just feels like even if it takes the Eagles more plays they would score on all 4 of those possessions in the hypo.
    Prediction: The Commanders do get some stops as the Eagles passing game leaves meat on the bones (open receivers not hit), but the Eagles still score like 24 or 27 points or something like that and cruise to a 24-17 or 27-17 win and cover the spread.

  • @conk8636
    @conk8636 6 дней назад

    That went well👍..

  • @sterlingferguson7234
    @sterlingferguson7234 10 дней назад +4

    Tampa will beat the Eagles again, they just match-up great with them.

    • @davontewilliams7565
      @davontewilliams7565 10 дней назад +1

      That's what I'm thinking

    • @drittzz9245
      @drittzz9245 10 дней назад +1

      Bowles has Hurts number and that run defense of the Bucs is great especially when they only have to really focus on one player.

    • @tjnetworksystemscash
      @tjnetworksystemscash 9 дней назад

      When do eagles play bucs???

  • @TheDivision94
    @TheDivision94 10 дней назад +2

    I don’t trust Texans

    • @tjnetworksystemscash
      @tjnetworksystemscash 9 дней назад +1

      But the defense should keep them in it and they have enough offense

  • @EK-uf6ko
    @EK-uf6ko 9 дней назад

    A lot of unders this weekend

  • @michaelsink6733
    @michaelsink6733 9 дней назад

    BLV Nation. Mitch you have class and style. Sound picks this week. Nice analysis. Good Luck Always. In God we trust.

  • @charwilliams2875
    @charwilliams2875 10 дней назад +1

    I wouldn't bet your money on the Texans at the Chiefs because the Houston Texans will let you down 👇

  • @johnmimeault3467
    @johnmimeault3467 10 дней назад

    OMG !!!!! I'm literally fading you on every pick...and because I'm so sure that your so wrong I am putting all 5 picks in a parlay.

  • @johnmimeault3467
    @johnmimeault3467 6 дней назад

    #1 Bucs straight up lost, #2 Eagles straight up lost, #3 Niners got blown out, #4 We will see if Packers cover, # 5 Texans got blown out and in case you were wondering it didn't go under it went over....so when i said omg I'm gonna fade you on every bet, it doesn't sound so crazy now does it? So with all the statistics in your head and the vast knowledge you have regarding individual players scrupulously, your record is abysmal. In fact, I decided to do an experiment after the Bucs game, where I had 5 total strangers and a couple friends throw darts blind folded at 10 targets representing your 5 games, and after each round the darts picked more winners than you picked without all that knowledge and Stats rolling around your pretty little (really big) head. So I can clearly say that your picks are Ipso facto bogus. Now i can tell you what you are doing wrong but I would have to charge. lol oh poor mich

  • @troymitchell1931
    @troymitchell1931 10 дней назад

    You have some great picks here, Mitch! It should be a good week