Why China Isn't Helping Russia: A Tale of Sovereignty, Geopolitical Jockeying, and Money
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
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In March 2023, Xi Jinping visited Moscow for a historic summit with Vladimir Putin. Many thought this would usher in a new era of military cooperation between the countries. Instead, Russia received no clear promises of military assistance. What happened? The answers perhaps lie in a complicated problem with Taiwan, political jockeying within their own relationship, and money. It is always the money.
0:00 China's Summit with Russia
1:32 Sovereignty, Ukraine, and Taiwan
4:39 Strengthening Russia to Hurt the West
7:32 Politically Manipulating the West
9:51 Russia-China Coalitional Conflict
11:51 China and Economic Growth
16:30 Have Sanctions Become Permanent?
20:26 Will Things Change?
21:56 Solutions to #wheresputin
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as an Iranian I feel like the alliance between European Union and the U.S.(and Japan, South Korea, etc)is so much tighter than our 'alliance' between Russia, China, North Korea, Syria, etc, because it's a completely and utterly selfish relationship, it's almost like a cold corporate deal, while they in Europe have a signed pact that says they'll all go to war even if one of them is attacked.
And for me as a South Africa, the BRICS alliance as a supposed bullwark against the west falls flat, since none of the BRICS members have anything in common. India and China are even hostile to each other.
I feel your alliance (and I mean no disrespect when I say this) is based around hate. It’s an alliance born out of necessity towards a common enemy. The NATO alliance is not only a defensive pact but the countries in that pact are bound by common ideas and values.
@@fthirtyfivemr Good point!
@@mostlynothing8130 Good point!
Tbh I don't think it's a good thing to have a hegemony. That said I think China is definitely playing the long game - Russia and many fundamentalist Islamic countries have some values in common, but China is significantly different
*Putin and Xi Jenping, in a field of flowers*
Putin: "You're going to help us out, right?"
Xi: *smiles*
Putin: "Right?"
Xi:
Ukraine is not china problem and not in china interest
@@iggy5347 The Ukraine war is definitely in China's interest.
With Russia under pressure, China can start making more demands from their 'partner'.
@@iggy5347
Au contraire. For a number of reasons:
1 - Chinese foreign policy is basically 'Respect other countries, and shut the hell up about what people do inside their country', so the human rights situation in China can not be used as a pretext to punish China. Russia and its constant invasions of other countries are a problem for that. Prior to Ukraine, China condemned each war Russia started. (thank Putin's boi Trump for antagonising China like that)
2 - Russia caused China to lose face. Chinese citizens were attacked and murdered by Russian troops, and this kept up after Beijing insisted it stopped. This lead to the famous 'Wolf Warrior tweet'. The 2nd Russian insult came by sending minister Laughrov to meet Xi Jinping, while Putin sipping champagne in his palaces. This means Russia treated China as a lesser partner, while China sees itself as elevated above Russia.
Face culture is a huge deal in China and Beijing is pissed off. Look at the body language when Putin met Xi Jinping: Putin is often quiet, submissive, like he's making up for slights. Xi Jinping is known for his anger once the cameras turn off, which was captured briefly when Trudeau was confronted over betraying confidentiality.
Xi Jinping is the guy who was thrown into a death camp by Mao Zedong so his whole family could be purged, and instead he fought his way to becoming the great leader. He came from nothing and became something, he's hardened. Putin by contrast is a sick KGB apparatchik and billionaire who's always had privilege. They are opposites on many levels.
3 - Ukraine is in the route of the New Silk Road, and a Russian-occupied Ukraine won't be allowed to deal. Beijing thinks years, decades ahead and is rigidly on Team China. Ukraine winning this benefits China in that region.
4 - Speaking about Realpolitik and being on Team China, Russia being crushed benefits China. It destroys their northern enemy that invaded China six times, and turns it into an open colony from which to extract resources. Once again, Russian defeat helps China.
5 - The only thing that mustn't happen, is Russian getting crushed so hard that Russia disintegrates and the resulting countries look to Europe and the US. Because that strengthens the US power block that complicates Chinese interests.
@Iggy That's what he said big 🧠. Winnie the pooh and piglet are a cute couple though.
China would helped Russia, if Ukraine is their enemy. But they are not, in fact, China has many investments, huge trades and good relationships with Ukraine.
Although China understands Russians action, the conflicts is no good for China.
China's involvement in international affairs is guided by its own interests and strategic considerations. While China and Russia share a strategic partnership, it does not necessarily mean that China will always provide direct assistance to Russia in every situation.
There could be various reasons why China may choose not to provide extensive assistance to Russia in a particular context. Some factors that influence China's approach include its own domestic priorities, geopolitical considerations, and the specific circumstances of the situation.
It's important to remember that international relations are complex, and decisions made by countries are shaped by a multitude of factors.
Thank you for this chatgpt comment..lol
china is not retarded.
they know that if russia falls, they are the next target of the ws.
and if china falls, then we(non-whites) are all fcked. so i hope russia prevails.
"China's involvement in international affairs is guided by its own interests and strategic considerations. While China and Russia share a strategic partnership, it does not necessarily mean that China will always provide direct assistance to Russia in every situation."
You can replace China and Russia with any other 2 countries and it would still be a truthful statement.
That's just how geopolitics works. Or at least for relations between two independent and sovereign states. Sovereign states are always guided by and pursue interests which benefit themselves, and they only cooperate when there is benefit in them doing so.
Countries that do something which benefits someone else and hurts their own interests means they are either puppet states or pressured to do so by the other side which is stronger and can hurt them even worse than they would hurt by cooperating to hwfjn with.
A good example of this is usa and it's chip ban against China. Taiwan, sk, Japan, Netherlands were all pressured/forced to act against their own interests and put usas interests over their own. Effectively losing hundreds of billions every year because usa said so. They are basically puppet protectionist states of the US.
@@ex0duzz难道他们不是吗
Direct assistance?... Ukraine just blew up the longest transportation tunnel. Thanks to you, you can expect more routes being shut off.
love your work, keep it up
Being Taiwanese, when Russia first invaded, I was worried that this might embolden China to do something "extreme". But as the war continued, I realized that China would face a lot of obstacles if they even want to attempt at doing the same thing with us
Yes but it evitable China consider Taiwan as part of China they will do take it back soon
Imagine Russia trying to do this... with a 200km moat to swim. Any troops that China lands on a Taiwanese beach has to be supported across that distance with food, water, ammunition, and replacement soldiers. The more soldiers, the more critical the supply lines become. So not only does China have to take an island, they have to make sure those supplies are not interrupted.
Meanwhile, Taiwan creates a huge fortress protecting supply-lines coming in from the Pacific. China would have to encircle all of Taiwan and blockade it. China doesn't have the naval resources to fend off the USA and the west so far outside the litoral waters.
you taiwanese hahaah brainwashed USA DEVIL haha omg. news fake taiwanese cause made American . TAIWAN Brainwashed like Hong Kong young stupid aswell
Idk. It really seems China is gearing up for something big. I hope they don’t but this all has a real WW3 feel to it.
There is no chance of China invading you guys in a successful manner. I doubt they will try - China is not Russia, and historically they never have been like them. However, China will probably try to align Taiwan with themselves. For that they do benefit from a credible military threat.
I think a huge portion of it is China is more tied to the west than it wants to admit. It has developed a lot of soft power as a trading partner. Authoritarian and nominally communist as it is, it's been engaging in a LOT of trade. It's deeply focused on opening and expanding trade.
What happens when they team up with Russia? What happens if they get hit with sanctions or just lose good will? All their economic power and progress they've made in 100 years vanishes.
I imagine they're kind of staring at Russia like: "bro... shut up... you're making us look like assholes."
Yeah, at the most extreme a trade war between the US and China (which a hot war would necessarily include) would lead to horrific inflation in the US (200%?)
And horrific starvation in China.
The Chinese GDP wouldn't so much shrink as implode, a 50% fall would be the most optimistic projection. It is a case of everyone loses but China loses the most.
Not expanding trade but expanding sales, which is slightly different. And nominally not even in the next few five year plans as they really wanted to go from a manufacturing hub to a knowledge hub and political world power.
In China, something like 1/3 of GDP comes from trade with the West and another 1/3 from building out infrastructure to better trade with the West.
On top of that, China is relatively resource poor. They have to buy the entire steel output of Australia just to barely scrape by with their steel demands.
This doesn't even count the economic devastation that would be caused if Taiwan, the largest producer of computer chips in the world, was suddenly being destroyed.
Overall, China would lose out massively if they tried to invade Taiwan and would gain almost nothing in return. And this assumes China could even take over Taiwan in the first place, which they have failed to do every time they have tried.
I think China wants to try and control Taiwan a different way, probably economic pressure, maybe some political bribery, things like that. It's not like Taiwan doesn't want to have a good relationship with China, they simply want to be respected as their own sovereign nation.
The U.S. and Canada are already looking domestically and to Mexico as a more reliable and more local manufacturing partner. The more global tension rises, the less North American businesses will want to depend on a country that may be hit with economic sanctions or worse in the coming years. Similarly though, China is looking more to Russia as an importer of its all important natural resources.
China LOVES that money. Xi will eventually die & something else will happen. Mao eventually died. v
Clear, to the point and pertinent.
It would be a blessing for everybody overcome from war any kind of war
Because when Russia goes down, with little effort, China will acquire a whole lotta land and an extended Eastern seaboard. In preparation, Russians might consider learning Mandarin.
It is possible that China is ALREADY moving on eastern and southern Russia, right now.
Instead of military invasions, China may be buying influence and allegiances in those parts of Russia, getting the local Russian leaders to switch allegiance and loyalties to Beijing.
Money and resources would flow to China, not to western Russia, and the Kremlin could do nothing except sit quietly and not make any mention of it.
China does not want land in Siberia
Much unfinished business for the Chinese in Outer Manchuria.
lmao, the absolute cope
"with little effort"
That would never happen in the coming decades.
If there is one thing that the Chinese are experts at, it is their ability to read the situation and quickly turn it to their benefit, and always their benefit.
-Common Filipino Proverb towards the Chinese People
To me it looks like China is playing Russia to maximize profit.
Just hand Russia small pieces that never are enough to make a difference but enough to look like a promise just to prolong the pain for Russia in order to weaken them even more.
I'm just waiting for China to take over Vladivostok.
They use "smile to your face, step on your shoes diplomacy
Mostly known as CCP have no honour.
@@daryldaryl913 No room for honour in politics. If you want honour you'd need a Klingon.
@@superpieman5773 其实我认为我们中国的外交都是便宜了别人亏了自己。 用我们中国人的话说就是冤大头。
Well thought-out; and, made video. 👍
I'm really happy I found your channel today. You seem to have a very good idea of what is going on, and your speech is slow and clear, that makes the absorption of the information much easier. Thank you. You have a new subscriber.
China's friendship insists on everything that is in China's favor. The Russian war against Ukraine is not. Rather, China is trying to play an extra role and seek its interests in Taiwan. Maybe the US is busy and China can conquer Taiwan.
But China certainly wants to do business with Europe and also want to have a hand in Africa.
China sees Russia's weakness as an opportunity to be strong itself.
Is there anything that Xi wants from Putin? Make the offer Russia! No free meal.
The US is never busy when it comes to Taiwan. Taiwan is vital to the global economy as it makes almost the entirety of microchips, used by militaries and consumers. The US simply can't allow China to have sovereignty over Taiwan, at least until it sets up its own microchip factories.
@@Rapunzel879 even then u think us is going to abandon Taiwan? Even after all the support going towards Ukraine?
@@somezsaltz6835 that’s true, it’s both the microchips and spreading democracy
@@somezsaltz6835 The US allowed Russia to invade Ukraine, another democracy. What's the difference between Taiwan and Ukraine? Ukraine doesn't have anything the west desperately needs. If the US can set up its microchip facilities, I doubt it will wage a war against China because of Taiwan. It's just business to these goverments.
Fun fact: China's first Aircraft Carrier was bought from Ukraine.
And unlike her sister she is still going strong without needing a tugboat on every trip
@@okoninao yeah, the pro-Russian leaders of Ukraine were horrible. Thank goodness the Ukrainian people have learned better and will never have a pro-Russian leader again.
@@okoninao So Ukraine sold a Soviet ship to communist China? Maybe these oligarchs were aiding their colleagues after their own system fell.
Or maybe because they were corrupt whitewashing Kremlin puppets? You tell me
@@okoninao To be fair they scrapped everything on that carrier before selling it to China, I mean everything, from electronics to engines, they had to dragged it with a cargo ship to China, it might as well be scrap metal.
Nope not fun at all!!! DUH
I appreciate your dry humor. Your programs are excellent William...keep it up.
Good information source,thank you.
You always have a well considered perspective that's worth taking note of. Thanks for your work, mate.
Russia is saying to China "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". China is saying "Sorry buddy, the enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more, no less."
Russia s economy is smaller than South Korea
No money no friend
As long as Russia is in conflict, China can buy cheap energy from Russia
And if Russia broke, China can take Manchuria back from Russia
nah not really
In fact, their private relationship is indeed very good. Since Russia was subjected to various sanctions, Russia's daily necessities have been imported from China, so the lives of the Russian people have not been greatly affected.
Thank you.
7:38 That Trudeau reference was slick, il give you that.
This is why aid to Ukraine is so important. It's not only weakening Russia but also deterring China, all the while strengthening ties between America and its allies. Now China will not make a move against Taiwan unless they are absolutely certain that they will win.
This isn't deterring China at all.
In fact they have witnessed how West responds in such scenarios and are now much more predictable.
China got more time for preparation and ways to make sure to cut West entirely out of options.
agree
@@ajaykumarsingh702 it's laughable you think they will ever be able to cut the west out of this situation
@@ajaykumarsingh702 this showed if anything the west is not predictable. Russia thought the west wasn’t going to support Ukraine to the extent that it has and this will make China second guessing how the west will predict if they invade Taiwan
@@ajaykumarsingh702 China’s plans for reunification relied on the same thing Russias plans to invade Ukraine- the west not responding quickly or strongly or with unity. The US and it’s Allies have shown they can very much respond quickly, strongly, and with unity.
Awesome videos! Always looking forward to them
Congrats on first comment!
Yeah, congrats 🎉🎉 on being first. v
@@virginiatyree6705 Wow did I just meet a namesake?
@@Shaman42069 , If you want me to be, sure. My sir name is Tyree.v
No, this video was pretty naive. Not only is China helping Russia, but China is the main reason why Russia invaded Ukraine. China told Russia to invade Ukraine because China wanted to threaten the people of Eastern Europe with extermination.
Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.
Excellent analysis report!,,,,
I don’t agree with everything you said, but man, this is so well put together. Definitely love this!
Thank you!
i agree with how you disagreed. that's very well put... thank YOU. :)
Hey William, Congrats 🎉🎉 🎉 on 400k! Subs. Always enjoy your analysis. There's so much "noise" out there & it's helpful to watch your videos. All the best & onward to a million subscribers.
I am a Chinese, enjoy yourself everyone if it makes you happy
Most enlightening,
Congratulations on reaching 400,000 Subscribers. This channel deserves considerably more!
THEY ARE 399K BRAIN DEAD SUBSCRIBERS
The problem with dictators are they are capable of taking unexpected decisions. A dictator cannot trust a dictator in particular.
They only care about themselves, like having narcissist friends. They only help out if they benefit out of something.
Like your Israeli daddy?
That is true. However , it was, until recently, far more true of Poutine than Chairman Xi. I think in China there may be more restraints on Xi, than Poutine faces in Russia. We'll see...jt
Our Captalist system is not working.We are out of step.With Countries like China.They have mixed Socialist with Captalist.That has been working very good for China.We have to do the same.Our system has to much corruption.
very true & they recognize that if they act up terribly they will have an accident
Extremely interesting.
I’m South African. I’m discussed with this ANC government stance on this war. Our government stinks !!!!!!! Many of our hearts are with Ukraine 🇺🇦
I'm a south African and I stand with Russia, they should not threaten its national security, I am against the west due to their lack of respect to African states.
Mark McCulloch my condolences your Government is way worse than stinks it is so far up China's ass that it is not funny.
Even tho Russian mercenaries have been active in Middle East encouraging political espionage and military aid to their favored military factions? Don’t think Russia is there because they are helping, they are only helping themselves, and they aren’t afraid to make any African country the next Middle East and start bombing them. Oh, and don’t forget Ukraine AND the west are trying to get Russia to allow Ukraine grain to make it to much needed areas in Middle East and Africa and Russia said NO, using food as a weapon and starving our African people and middle eastern as a form of blackmail/political pressure. Is that who you support? A country that would do that ti another country? By supporting this invasion, you’re telling the world Africa allows and supports conflict and invasion. This isn’t about the west, and the west isn’t against you. Most westerners support Africa and hope it returns to its former glory.
@@thatomaluleka6562 lol threaten Russia? When? Where? 😂😂😂😂 but I guess you’re from South Africa, I’m not surprised 😂😂🤡🤡🤡🤡.. fucked up ass society….y’all and the Russians have a lot in common 😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@thatomaluleka6562 Respect is EARNED not given. All you’re leaders are corrupted to the max. Do you know where them keep them money when they steal it from you guys? 😂😂😂they come to the so call “evil” West. They buy properties and invest in western countries 😂😂😂😂do you know where they send their kids for schooling? Yup you guessed it, to western countries 😂😂😂😂do you know where they travel to for medical? western countries 😂😂😂😂….so it is THEM p, you’re president you need to be against not the West. Cus I see you’re using a western platform😂😂😂😂
. Btw, where was Russia and China during apartheid? 😂😂😂😂😂the western world protested and section South Africa government, because of that. Where was Russia them? You sit there and speak about ‘respecting African countries” Where is the respect you South Africans give to other Africans living and working in your county? 😂😂😂you google the world Xenophobia, South Africa and South Africans pops up😂😂😂😂you and your ppl should be the LAST to speak on respect. Hypocrite to the max, is where you are….but carry on tho, keep on using western platforms 😂😂😂
omg. i've been craving this type of analysis for years. reminds me of public radio stuff. well-researched, free, focused on the big picture. *chef's kiss*
But the narrator is talking rubbish lol
The #wheresputin bit is pretty funny and a hilarious way to get people to re-watch the video
It definitely worked for me 0=)
I saw him spying on Biden and Trudeau at 7:40
same and same
Clever. I didn't think many people would figure that out. Well done 👏
#snoopingputin
Thank you for showing me that, now I don't have to rewatch the video myslef. I did not want to rewatch it but I was really curious where the Putin is.
11:18 has Steven Seagal sighting.
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer
thx for the ending.. absolutely epic !!😂
I don't really have much time to go back to your previous videos to play the #WheresPutin game, so I greatly appreciate you giving out the answers at the end, since it still added a nice touch of humor.
It's a pretty brilliant way to try to get your audience more involved, to kudos to you. 👏👏
it was nothing but horse shit propaganda.
@@Proxymatedok champ! Whatever you say! 🥴👍
@@dahbean2874Little boy, if you are too dumb and gullible to see this william spaniel is pushing western propaganda....then champ, maybe look at his sources, literally all his sources is US propaganda outlets who had their credibility completely destroyed by Russian and independent journalists all over the world.
One thing this war showed is that being an aggressor in a modern war is a horrible idea. Not only do you throw money away with your lost vehicles and troops, you severely damage your reputation and critically damage your own economy. In a world were countries rely so much on export from others, there's nothing worse for a country than starting a war themselves.
If it all hadn't been so tragic it had been funny how Kreml/Putin accomplish the opposite of what they tried, more countries joining NATO, accelerating de-russification of nabouring countries, western democratic countries "finding themselves" and perhaps, clarifying for everyone Russia are an aggressive nation with imperialistic ambitions, a lot of people, me included, had a pretty positive attitude to Russia and Putin, thought Kreml was a good counterweight of the west, but the military attack on Ukraine gave me a totally different attitude to Putin/Russia, the war in Ukraine changed a whole lot of things
Not even the U.S is safe from this. Billions of dollars gone to the paper shredder
Shows you do not know the reasons for the war. Russia HAS NO CHOICE.
Surprised still talking as though Russia is the aggressor when the real aggressor is Nato to destabilize Russia.
hmmm i think it depends. it's like a threshold IMO.
currently the only major country in a war is russia but were that number to increase to 3 then it would likely spawn a feeding frenzy with major powers snapping up smaller ones or knowknig their rivals down a peg
@@Brandon-yg7mwNo offense but I’m going to call BS on “record numbers of young men enlisting” you categorically cannot claim anyone is enlisting if you’ve setup a national draft/conscription not to mention that still doesn’t change the fact that tens of thousands of Russians have fled the country since this war began. Forcing people to join the army isn’t the same as voluntary service. On your second point, what can South Africa do to help Russia aside from moral support, frankly countries who are not contributing to their economy or war effort and supporting Russia “in spirit” really don’t matter in the scope of the conflict or international relations, especially when they have little to no global power.
I’d be curious to see how China utilizes this balance as a result of their discounted resources from Russia. By that I mean how much of each side China plays into.
How the turns have tabled
I super appreciate your take. Thanks for doing this
Just realised the same channel which taught me Game Theory as a kid is the one I’m watching about the Invasion nearly a decade later
This channel is pure gold, the “where’s Putin” is just hilarious
" INTERESTING ", Brother Monroe Dey El Bey (7), MOORISH EMPIRE, CHEROKEE.
Love your presentations! Very informative! Keep up the great work!
hiding Putin behind some cookies I love that one🤣🤣🤣
I don't really know if William gained or lost social credit points with this video..
Winnie the Pooh
Damn i think i just lost some
😂 we don't care!😅
Lost, for making it easier to analyze the actions and motives of the Chinese government. I think they would prefer to be inscrutable.
He viewed the chinese government as a bit pragmatic so i guess he gained a bit
IN AMERICA I BET HE HAS BAD CREDIT
Good!
VERY GOOD COMMENTARY.
Thank you for your continued good work.
Thanks for another informative video. I'm Canadian and appreciated the shot of PM Trudeu at 7:39. #wheresputin
Your prime minister is a joke on a global scale
👏🏼
JT is a disgrace.
Thanks for confirming that guy I could just make out in the background holding up the binoculars to his face at 7:39, was the suspect that I was looking for,
But what I want to know, is it really Putin, or is it one of his doppelgängers, plus how did he get past security without being arrested,
😎👍🏼
You should do a video on Canada next. You make great videos.
Bravo!!!!!
Excellent commentary; the best overview I have come across on geopolitical events
I’m not terribly good at modern political analysis, but from an historical perspective, the answer seems quite clear. They are not friends. They never have been friends. They can never be friends.
They call ally, they can smile and shake hands, they can reassure each other and the world all they like. The fact of the matter is that their culture, their politics, and their primary ideologies are incompatible.
They’re neighbours. Neighbours who both believe that they are the true and deserving rulers of the world. That’s an overarching, soft consideration. The road to that domination can take many roads, necessitate many alliances and compromises, but ultimately at the end of the day, when all other opponents lie defeated or dead, and it’s just the two of them, the smiles will vanish, the handshakes will become Death grips, and the guns will turn towards one another.
Both know this. It’s happened many times before. They know it can and probably will happen again. You can’t be friends when both know, and kind of want that.
My enemy's enemy, is my friend, I think you're correct. Apart from this conflict, they are rivals.
Only became allys because everyone else is an enemy
The world is all like this. I assure you russians have no love for east asians, and east asians have no love for russians.
@@nihluxler1890 hahaha! Telling me to cope when you’re snorting the purest Siberian copium.
And I suppose by the “most warlike nation every” you mean the US. Granted they’re hardly peaceful, and relish is shouting anything not nailed down, but I think you’re lacking that knowledge of history I mentioned. Ever heard of Assyria? Hatti? Rome? The Mongols? The Mongols literally killed enough people in the world to make a noticeable effect on the environment that we can read today.
@@nihluxler1890 is that why china hasn’t given anything to russia despite russia doing pretty poor for its projected strength
Which resolution pass anyway?
brilliant
Excellent, insightful video! I love the game theory analysis. 👍🏼I wonder if you might have any thoughts or were planning on a video about Burma? The recent news about the civilian deaths there broke my heart.
I have watched a few of his videos. The game theory stuff is what led me to finally subbing.
Thank you for these videos
China has always been reticent to become involved in other countries' problems. Something the U.S. could learn.
6:58 - Speaker tells 'Their focus is still much further east, toward Taiwan and Russia" whereas the subtitle says:"...toward Taiwan and China". This is the only 'flaw' I found about those 'cakes' that were kept as flowing arguments in this informative video.
Great stuff (as usual). Thank you.
Thanks for publishing this extremely interesting and insightful analysis
China: "Not in my house"
Yeah this aged well............
the point is that, China has had enough of being seen as the "retinue" or "servant" of USSR or russia. from Beijing's perspective, it's china and china's opinion that really matters rather than russia. putin didn't even tell Beijing he's gonna invade Ukraine and he thought he can make it without china's help. all right, fine, handle the situation by yourself. if you want help now, kneel down and beg.
Would love to hear your thoughts on China's now Russia-owned Manchuria and how it fits into all this
More importantly:
Northern China desperately needs water. There is a giant lake in Russia just north of Mongolia, China made moves to buy that water. The Russian state blocked this. Given recent droughts this could literally be a life and death issue for millions of Chinese.
If Russia is desperate enough, selling water suddenly becomes a good deal.
What are you talking about? Did russia buy Manchuria? I missed it.
@@cxzact9204 More like occupied/stole it
The usa dropped 2 nukes on japan yet they are good allies today. Germany and france have had many wars and both have lost land to each other. Today they are strong allies. This is just pure western cope
@@aaronbaker2186 More like Russia would end up agreeing to ship the water to China, with payment to be delayed to a future date.
And of course that payment would never arrive. And the Kremlin would just keep quiet about it and do nothing.
Gut
Good
not a politic or war expert here, but this type of video is hard to come by, explaning what is at stakes and all its leverages for all sides. there are many videos explaining the war mechanics (which is also insightful), but this gives a better in depth of what actually took place and why decisions were made the way they are.
We're grateful to Putin for contribution to development of great China!
after his cleansing of Russian people, Russia will be hopeful frontier for Chinese to civilize. So many people will enjoy Beautiful ski slopes and luxury resort hotels. 🤭🤭🤭🤭🤭🤭
@@MichaelMorotovoh you’re a troll lol
@@MichaelMorotovwhy did you bother to say this
Found our man looking at our Canadian friend on timestamp 7:40. #wheresputin
Good eye!
correct!
he's the one and only, Justin Turdeau
Pres Xping is a great gentleman his dies not get involved with wars and nonsense thankyou Pres Xping
What if they made it seem like this on camera but made deals behind closed doors. No one would ever know
Congrats on 400k subs, loved your book!
Thank you!
Your videos are always indepth but still very understandable and interesting. I always appreciate your comprehensive discussions and you are providing a service that isn't done by mainstream media. Thank you
I think he is very biased he only says what the western crowd wants to hear
hes dumb as rocks.
How about getting rid of all politicians the world over and starting again and any corruption no matter what you get 25 year's in prison with no exceptions and start to get the deserts to bloom and feed the world over and quite possibly the world population will naturally reduce
If young Russians don't come back from Ukraine, it'll be easer for Chinese millionaires to collect Russian beauties and to build magnificient harems in Russia!🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩
@@MichaelMorotov easy there crayon dick
China prefers making friends, not engaging in military alliances. Everyone should work together on infrastructure and do business together. The United States should learn from this, instead of always engaging in excessive military activities, which harms others as well as itself
China making friends 😆 🤣 😂 🤡 🤡
Super villains don’t help each other, it’s a trope.
Funny bit about Myanmar - at 3:29 you see they voted "for" even though they are clearly a dictatorship aligned with russia and china.
But the thing is their ambassador in UN who has the power to vote is pro-democracy. They also have democratic leadership in exile which is recognized by the West. So even though Myanmar dictators would never cast this vote interesting thing happened.
I am waiting for the day russian public would rise up against dictatorship like majority of Burmese people did. Because this is step one to move away from dictatorship. Russia haven't even done step 1.
Yes Artem. The experts call this learned helplessness. Moving this conversation away from Burma for a minute. I believe the Chinese Citizens are more driven than the Russians to put out the CCP. Although Chinese have less opportunities to throw out the CCP. Hopefully they will very soon. I feel a great country can come out from either of these ancient evils.
They never will and Putin knows that, so therefore the Russian people are the problem not putin, all he has to do is spin a yarn now and then!
There are two problems towards a 21 century Russian Revolution:
1. The Public is largely on Putin’s side: Even if approval and voting rates is inflated or party non-genuine (IE, people voting yay in opinion and voting poll out of fear of repercussions instead of real approval), all sources seem to indicate the the Russian Population generally support Putin. There are of course many opposition members within but the attention they receive in western media is disproportionate to their share of the population or ability to affect change since Russians saying “down with Putin!” is likely to receive more views and likes than Russians smiling and clapping whenever Putin takes the stage. Economic turmoil, casualties, and battlefield failures could turn potentially turn the population against Putin at some point, but for now Putin enjoys the support of his people.
2. The risks of Revolution vs doing nothing: If the Russian Public does turn against Putin, it will put him in a precarious position but that alone doesn’t mean he is done. Lukashenko and Kim Jong-Un are good examples: Both of these leaders has populations who are dissatisfied with their government but still remain in power. People are not stupid, they know that fighting the regime is risky and could end poorly for themselves, therefore they won’t risk their own skin if they don’t see success as possible. This is due to the combination of a few factors:
2A. Lack of opposition to join: People reasonably assume that if they decided to protest outside the Kremlin or storm the gates on their own, they would certainly die or be imprisoned with an effectively 0% chance of forcing Putin out of office. Now if it was 100 people, it may or may not work but people see the chances of success as more than 0% and join since the chances of success is higher and the chances of being caught or killed is lower. If there were a million people outside the Kremlin against Putin or protesting or even fighting against his Regime, then Putin could be screwed. As such Putin has been quickly to shut down any opposition leader and movement before it can snowball out of control and so far has been successful, putting anti-Putin people back at square one.
2B. Ability of the Government to crush opposition: This ties into the previous one, people are less likely not to oppose the Government if it carries a higher risk of death or imprisonment. Part of the reason why Myanmar is facing a civil war and Belarus isn’t is because Myanmar military is fighting mostly alone and rebels can flee into the jungles, while Belarus could expect Russian Support and where can Belarusian rebels hide?
2C: Is the current regime fine: This is another factor that contributes to the willingness of people to rebel. If a person is unhappy with their current regime but they can still keep their fridges full, a roof of their head and lights on, is it worth risking getting shot or imprisoned even if the new regime would be better? What about instead if the leader’s decisions has run the country into the ground and now you are in deep poverty or at serious risk of falling into poverty? Again, this alone does not determine if one will rebel such as North Korea with one of the worst standards of living in the world, but people are far more likely to risk everything, when everything is their own skin and some pocket change.
All of these factors contributes to the ability and willingness of people to launch revolutions and currently Russia has none of them. So for now, Putin need only worry that his people stay’s on his side and that he doesn’t create the conditions for revolution.
This is why a democracy goes through more Prime Ministers or Presidents than an Autocracy goes through Supreme Leaders or Dictatorsa, since the risks involved of opposing the current head of state (provided it’s a functioning democracy and you act within the limits of the law, not counting riots, insurrections or countries with weak democratic institutions like Russia) is effectively 0%.
So is Afghanistan. The Taliban are not getting any rights to vote in the UN anytime soon
The Russian people rose up against dictatorship in 1991 I think? It just didn't stick.
Solid analysis and well thought out. Subscribed.
5:45 Ukrainian trap? Textbook method of how to disable a moving armor column. The method pops up constantly in ww2 history books.
Your t enunciation is immaculate
I think the one factor that you left out in this video is that Russia currently occupies a lot of territory that Beijing would certainly consider to be just as much a part of China as they think Taiwan is. Weakening of Russia would potentially give them opportunity to re-assert their claim.
THAT'S A DISTRACTION WON'T HAPPEN
@@fidelcastro1706 yeah, China would rather turn all of Russia into a puppet state/Colony.
They just need to keep that idiot Putin throwing away all his manpower and military material in Ukraine until Russia is too weak to say no the anything China wants.
I'd say "just as much" is a wild exaggeration.
Or China just waits for Russia to drain so much money on Ukraine that a "sale" of the former Chinese lands for rock bottom prices of only tens of millions of dollars becomes necessary for Putler.
Won't happen! Their friendship has no limits remember!🤣
I really didn't understand the "Find Putin" challenge. I thought you were asking us to find out where that photo was taken (original context), rather than to find out where you hid it (new context).
Still, looks like a fun game, and perhaps I'll get a chance to play next time?
Went back thought the video, didn’t realise that there was a game to find Putin. But i found him at 7:42 #wheresputin
Open military surplus supply chains
No mention in this video of China's desire to get back the Vladivostok region, which was annexed by Russia from the Ding dynasty in the 1860's.
China would want Russia to be weak to do this.
Also, if the Siberian republics became independent, China could more easily exploit them for their natural resources.
Putin would be out of his mind to give up the Vladivostok region just for help the war in Ukraine. Vladivostok is far more important trade and economic wise than Ukrainian territory.
Didn’t know the contender for World Chess Championship has a dynasty😮🤔
@@Carl-Gauss Qing got autocorrected, I'd assume.
I think this is more the US goal, if I listen to their think tanks about breaking up Russia, not Chinas. China now has all the leverage to get all economic access to far eastern Russia they could ever want
China needs to FULLY support Russia (weapons, men and everything else) because if they don't, they'll be next.
They know they can't trust the west, and they know they can trust Russia.
China has Economy issues & the Ruble keeps Falling.
Good point, and even if Putin continues selling oil to energy-hungry China, it'll still be at cut-rate prices, and even then, a continued war of attrition means he's still facing 'diminishing returns'. BTW, kudos to William as ever, for the always insightful analysis!
With China’s economic issues getting a captive market in Russia is pretty good
Every country has economic issues
@@capadociaash8003 Sure but it’s hardly a huge market. China wants Russia’s raw materials and oil, the Russian economy is just a bonus.
China’s biggest weakness is their population, the fact that they have the one of the highest aging populations is a problem. Having almost 2:1 elderly to young in the next 20-30 years is going to contract their economy by 40% or more and there’s next to nothing that can be done.
They are liars. So, they try to protect each others' evil secrets.
These videos are good at explaining the US position
I think China, playing the long game has eyes on resource rich East Russian territory. A collapse or breakup of the Russian Federation would allow for an easy Chinese expansion.
Ukraine hold alot of lithium reserves.
@@andriandrason1318 but China can't reach Ukraine.
So much this. Russia didn't want to trade water, right now it's probably never looked easier for China to just take that nice large body of it just to her north.
@@andriandrason1318 China would rather trade
What? how about.... NATO and US will easily envade china if russia will become nato country remember nato and us are super greedy
As a Taiwanese, I really hope this Russia&China vs US&Its allies thing doesn't turn into a WW3. US has done a pretty good job so far by helping Ukraine and not directly get involved into the war. I'm very sad to see Ukrainians suffer from this uncalled for war, if you're an Ukrainian, you need to know your people is very famous in Taiwan, we even have a celebrity who's from Ukraine! Her name is Лариса Бакурова, she's very famous way before any of these things happen, and we all feel sad for her. Taiwanese are with you in East Asia, and please you guys need to win, we are all doing our parts to help you fight off the bad people. Long live Ukraine🇺🇦
We stand with Ukraine and Taiwan. ✌️😎
You keep your business in licking American boots thinking it will help under Chinese rightful invasion of your tiny homeland.
Привет Чан Кайши
The UK will stand with Taiwan as an ally as are many countries in this modern world. We have to respect democracy and cant condone land grabs based on historical nonsense by tyrants!
@@tgames6922no.australia&usa-who.were.what
Powerful nations doesn't need support.
🙄 China thinks we don’t see how they operate? Maybe Denile is not just a river in Egypt.
William uploads a geopolitical video relevant to the current world's struggles?
I click, and I absorb. Thanks again!
China profits more from remaining on the sidelines of the war always in a position where both sides are willing to negotiate away more and more to keep China out of the war, than China could ever gain by joining either side of the war.
두분멋져요
쵝오!!☆☆
8:00
Europe has also greatly been strenghtened and shaken out of it's nearly 30 decades of stagnation.
China recently changed the names of Russian cities on their maps to their former Chinese names....
Nothing noteworthy tbh its cosmetic change at best china has changed the names of lots of things..big deal...
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and a few others are an example of “if you go far enough east, then you’re in the west”
Or be buried in the Pacific Ocean
😅😅😅
@@huanluo1741 ???
He said that he wouldn't have to fire a shot.
They will invade each other, when they saw the chance. He’s my friend but also my enemy. Such a life.