Is Climate Change Slowing Down the Ocean? | Susan Lozier | TED
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 21 фев 2024
- Ocean waters are constantly on the move, traveling far distances in complex currents that regulate Earth's climate and weather patterns. How might climate change impact this critical system? Oceanographer Susan Lozier dives into the data, which suggests that ocean overturning may slow as our climate warms - and takes us on board the international effort to track these changes and set us on the right course while we still have time.
Countdown is TED's global initiative to accelerate solutions to the climate crisis. The goal: to build a better future by cutting greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, in the race to a zero-carbon world. Get involved at countdown.ted.com/sign-up
Learn more about #TEDCountdown:
Twitter: / tedcountdown
Instagram: / tedcountdown
Facebook: / ted
Website: countdown.ted.com
If you love watching TED Talks like this one, become a TED Member to support our mission of spreading ideas: ted.com/membership
Follow TED!
X: / tedtalks
Instagram: / ted
Facebook: / ted
LinkedIn: / ted-conferences
TikTok: / tedtoks
The TED Talks channel features talks, performances and original series from the world's leading thinkers and doers. Subscribe to our channel for videos on Technology, Entertainment and Design - plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. Visit TED.com to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more.
Watch more: go.ted.com/susanlozier
• Is Climate Change Slow...
TED's videos may be used for non-commercial purposes under a Creative Commons License, Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (or the CC BY - NC - ND 4.0 International) and in accordance with our TED Talks Usage Policy: www.ted.com/about/our-organiz.... For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), please submit a Media Request at media-requests.ted.com
#TED #TEDTalks 
Наука
"apocalypse lullaby" was all I thought hearing her calming voice
I don't like people saying "if our climate continues to warm", it's while our climate conitnues to warm
If😂
Are you advocating for the Ostrich Solution? Cause this talk specifically said it's continuing to warm unless we change things.
Jihn Kerry is your hero, right?
"We must work collectively" Good luck with that! The people pulling the strings are only interested in holding onto the strings.
not with that attitude
But if you make it financially attractive for them to pull the strings in the right direction ;)
We must work collectively
Also Creative Society is calling for that !
😮😊
And their megyachts
I can't even get my friends in on a collective garden. Good luck.
"OSNAP" is a very apt acronym.
She’d make a formidable A-I voice!
"We must work collectively" oh okay so then we are fucked
Creative Society
mathematical model
22 November 2022 video
'our survival is in unity'
maybe they are wrong maybe not
we'll see .... 😮😊
We are a crisis management species, which in a civilization built upon and wholly dependent on consumption of extractive resources means we will act collectively only after the situation has become so critical that it's either act or face the imminent loss of personal wealth. Governments are being destabilized and people are already being displaced and facing food shortages, which has barely registered on anyone who doesn't feel it directly impacting their bank account in real time.
The only "collective" activity we're likely to see, as usual, is the kind we're witnessing right now between the Israeli military and the civilians of Gaza. And, as for the underdogs in this "collective" activity, it's "heads you win, tails I lose". The disenfranchised almost always lose out to the privileged and powerful.
Exactly. the old fairy tale of " WE MUST" "WE ONLY" etc. when push comes to shove people don't cooperate they get more violent
more like we have been fucked, given the inertia in the system the size if a planet, we're way past the point of no return
A nice calming voice that alerts us to a pending climate disaster for late 21st century. Your children & grandchildren will hold you accountable for your beliefs & actions.
Problem is the boomers don't care "I will ne dead by them so screw next generation " that is something a bommer told me word for word
Late 21st century? I'd bet on global chaos being well underway by 2030.
This is ridiculous! As humans we chronically underestimate our ability to disrupt systems. We always think the best, we need to think the worst.
They are always to afraid to say what the actual problem is: our global capitalist economic system. An economic system designed to operate on an unlimited growth model is guaranteed to fail and collapse on a planet of finite resources.
If you achieve a nearly 100 % circular economy and gain better efficiency in resource and energy use economic growth is still possible. I´m not saying that this is what I wish for.
@@skaramanger_144 oh sure. One can also argue that once we start asteroid mining our solar system and beyond that we can continue with the "unlimited growth" model. But that's still sci-fi and we've got the present climate change catastrophe well underway so probably best that we focus on the present day for now.
I think, we should stop give bird
Every economic system eventually fails.
They are driven by people in governments.
At least capitalism lifted the global standard of living, something no other system was able to do.
Yep greed first, any problems from it? Who cares.. is a shame.
If also funny they forever changed the landscape by carving out rivers and ruining thousands of miles of natural marshland habitat, dams which killed most big fish, ironically bringing back whales/seals have harmed fish pops. We also have no clue what windmills (stopping wind flow) will have on the environment, same way we didn’t know what dams would do.
Such a great lecture--I had no idea that our instrument coverage of the ocean was so extensive! Also, what a concise and clear warning--sobering. Still, gotta love her beautiful voice!
This was recorded in July 2023. A study by Peter & Susan Ditlevsen released in the journal Nature at the end of that month estimated that the AMOC could collapse "around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions."
Thank you for that info. I had read that the climate models used for the 2100 date were faulty, but I can’t remember why. A growing consensus is more like 2050 given that our emissions are going up due to permafrost melting faster than expected.
And they always underestimate, so I interpret that as it's going to happen within the next decade. But that feels too real for the public to hear, so they use the most conservative (unrealistic) models to dampen the blow and push it off to a safer "later".
@@pcrockett5967 IIRC it was that they weren't accounting for the melting ice in the arctic diluting the circuit even further in the Northern Atlantic, where the water gets colder, and the saltier more dense water falls to the bottom. I believe all the meltwater from the arctic can interrupt that "oceanic waterfall" so to speak which is essentially the engine pushing the rest of the water along the bottom towards the places where it gets heated up and brought back to the surface. I remember reading something about that and also watching I want to say a PBS Terra video where they went to both places, where the water sinks and also a place where it comes back up to the surface full of nutrients and such.
Yep. It’s always “worse than we thought”. If you want to bet on climate, simply bet that scientists are far too conservative. You’ll win because it’s always worse than they thought.
@@Fenthule All climate models account for melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, as well as for changes in precipitation patterns and freshwater storage on land. Some (e.g., the one I use) also include additional meltwater flux from the shrinking Greenland ice sheet. While no climate modeler will say that the models are perfect, they are by far the best we have, and 'as correct as possible given our current state of knowledge'. It is worth noting that the models do not disagree in that the AMOC will weaken, just by how much. On the other hand, the statistical analysis of the Ditlevsens is highly controversial in the scientific community. It's a thought-provoking paper, but probably not much more.
“I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”
- Sultan Al Jaber, President of COP 28, also CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
Mukhtar Babayev will be the president for COP 29; he is also a former executive of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijian Republic.
Seems more and more likely, scenario SSP5-8.5 of the IPCC assessment may come to fruition (or at least the higher end of the spectrum). I say enjoy what you can, while you still can; pity the generations to come.
There is no science that can say with even the slightest confidence that the highest end of the threat will ever happen.
Technically he's not wrong. Even a complete phase-out of fossil fuels tomorrow won't stop 1.5C .... _alone_ . The problem with the statement is that it's disingenuous given the context of the speech. We need to phase out all fossil fuels *AND* do a lot more, to stop 1.5C, because we're already on it's doorstep. We've had 1.5C in 2 separate years now, but it's not sustained... yet.
@@BrentHollett There is not anything anyone can do, because it is not due to co2.
@@roberthicks5454 So what is it due to then? I doubt very much you know something that the 99.9% of climate scientists who say it most definitely is due to CO2 don't know.
@@-_James_- They do know, but the only way they get easy money is by claiming it is all co2. REAL scientist say that what they are doing is a lie. For example, a "climate scientist" with zero training in dendrochronology will claim that the rings give an accurate account of temperature changes, while a Dendrochronology will tell you that it tells you the CLIMATE, not the temperature. In addition, the "climate scientist" will not use the tree rings after 1960 because they showed a down turn that goes contrary to the narrative.
As to what it is caused by, its simple. The milankovitch cycles gives us the MAXIMUM temperature the earth can have, but there are a lot of things that can cause a much lower temperature. During the little ice age, the entire planet experience several things that caused a cooling effect, lowering the earths average temperature, causing glaciers to advance. After those ended, the glaciers began to melt, raising the average temperature of the earth slowly.
The most likely cause of the little ice age was a combination of increased volcanic activity causing increased amount of sulfuric ice clouds that reflected the suns energy away and a lack of sunspots, causing a drastic decrease in solar wind. This meant there was a major decrease in particles in the heliosphere, allowing an increase in certain types of cosmic radiation that are sun is weak in. These particles cause clouds to form lower more often, resulting in more sunlight being reflected away and more infrared being allow to escape.
Thank you for the informative content😊
Great speaker and educator!
A very good explanation of how the AMOC works, and its role in stabilizing hemispheric temperature gradients and global climate patterns.
Thank you, Dr. Lozier. That voice of yours is perfect.
Superb talk
DAY AFTER TOMORROW HERE WE COME
By my calculation, you must already have arrived. How you like tomorrow ?
Very easy to listen to hear. I wish more people are able to talk like her. Enables u to stay focused to the dot.
Madam, In your talk you provide fascinating information you also provide a realistic analysis about this fundamental issue. Thank you. Warm regards. Andre BERENYI from France.
We have too many people in place of power that only care about maintaining power and don’t think long term…only to their next election.
Yeah exactly
It's more of a structural problem. The whole setup of hierarchies that puts people in different position, filters out certain people in such a way, that only those that care about maintaining the power can get on top. So in a way, even those that get to the top are just pawns of the system that got them there. And in the off chance someone that presents even the slightest degree of threat gets in a position of power, we know what happens based on history. They just get assassinated. For much smaller changes that we have to do in the near future.
Madam, I agree with you but we as citizens should take action and defend our earth because if our earth is affected we'll sooner or later be in trouble. Warm regards Andre BERENYI
Ocean currents have been gradually deteriorating during the last few years. It's more than just environmental degredation issue. Seems like we aren't too susceptible to problems concerning natural bodies for water. We should advocate for changes. Unless there are any willing participants in each corner of the globe.
It needs just little attention to see what loss of habitat means ....
Did you miss the part where she said without the currents redistributing heat around the planet that there would be 110 degree differences between the equator and the poles? This would make the tropics too hot for people or plants to live, and going toward the poles, it would quickly get to where it would be too cold to for people or plants to survive. habitable zones for plants or animals would be limited to two bands, one in the south one in the north. This would greatly reduce arable land and we would not be able to support our current human population levels. Then in add in sea level rise, and the oceans ability or reduced ability to store carbon dioxide, and you further have a worsening situation for the survivors.
The AMOC is weakening because ice melt run off from Greenland and the Arctic forming the "cold blob" that pushed the warm northward surface current more south.
There's no one to advocate a change to. At least not in the established bodies of power , money based economies and institutions, since their whole setup only allows for what we have now, which is what caused the problems in the first place, and they will fight to preserve themselves.
We need a new start with knowledgeable people who are aware of the mounting existential crisis, scientists, people who know how to grow food, people who understand what variables affect human behavior, biologists, sociologist, engineers etc. (basically people with REAL knowledge, not politicians, bankers, businessman, lawyers, advertisers , etc.) and they have to get together and start from scratch using system's thinking and ecological thinking , to find out what kind of societal setup is possible long term if we use advanced tech, while fulfilling everyone's needs, scientifically, not politically, morally, philosophically, monetarily etc, but based on what actually works , using methods and language that refers/deals with things in reality , and interacts strictly with reality, constantly.
Great video. Thx
Flawless explanation… if someone without a scientific background gets it… surely anyone can .. Merci 🇨🇦
BRAVO! THIS is a Ted Talk!
What is the unit (Sv) used on the IPCC 2021 assessment graph please ? The only one I know is sievert ???
In oceanography, the sverdrup (symbol: Sv) is a non-SI metric unit of volumetric flow rate, with 1 Sv equal to 1 million cubic metres per second (264,172,052 US gal/s).
(Excerpt from Wikipedia.)
The major problem I have with these speeches is always the ending.
"We need to all work together"
"All hands on board."
"We're running out of time."
The average person has no _meaningful_ way to effect change in that timespan. All it does is generate a level of guilt we're not actually responsible for, because while we might want to do better, things like zero non-plastic options for food purchases, no control over the sale of EVs which are far too expensive for the average person to buy etc, mean that the only meaningful change in a 9 year timeline is industry and commercial organizations.
Yelling at bought and paid politicians isn't going to work because they're so focused on generating ideological wedge issues for reelection, so that they don't have to deal with these problems.
So I'd love a TED talk on _meaningful_ ways that the average person can effect change within 9 years, or we're just doom scrolling to the end.
I am calmed to hear of our demise
Terrible, terrifying words said in a wonderful gentle way.
Great speech and alarming for all of us. However, I want to know her workout routines more?😅
They are 'always' the same. Eat enough protein (which is around 1.2-1.6g/kg of body weight if you want to gain muscle) , perform progressive overload exercises, run, all that intense physical activity should be at least 1 hour a day, eat enough calories overall for your body weight/muscle building goals, sleep at least 7-8 hours a day, eat mostly or only whole food plant based diet, do that consistently for years and you become very fit and healthy, and keep it up for life, because one stays healthy only as long as they keep doing that which got them there. It's not a "reach and now you can stop" state of affairs. Health and fitness is a "do it or lose it" type of thing.
This is a good one! Well-written, and delivered in a pleasing voice!
Professor-Marty.
What about the weather modification programs? How are those affecting this problem???
Due to the spherical shape of the Earth 🌎, the oceanic thermo-haline circulation will never completely shutdown but rather slow down to the maximum possible extent. It's the same with the Jetstream. The differential heating caused by the Earth's spherical shape is a life saver.
I hope I live to see it actually happen.
We can only respect what nature is deemed appropriate doing... Mother nature or The Earth has its own mind and timeline ... it is a living being with its own soul and physical life subject to wear and tear. The Earth is vast but not infinite. It is subject to the physical laws of nature. Just like you and me, it will die one day. Enjoy your physical life on earth and just be a good human being. Love one another! ❤ 🙏🤗
This is pure gold for insurance companies.
I want that woman to announce each and every bad news I’m ever to receive in my life.
Such a soothing voice to listen to my god
Citizens United requires corporations to maximize profits at all costs
Heh, heh. Citizens united allows them to do that as ‘people.’ Milton Friedman gave them permission to ignore every other stakeholder on the planet.
Collectively means everyone. Everyone who create the problem and everyone else living in the problem. If we're going to work collectively, it would be great to know HOW we going to achieve that.
AMOC is slowing down, yes! AMOC meant to bring the warm water exchange with sinking cold water, true ! But this exchange is not determined by the temperature and density of the water at the North pole, meaning the dispersion of water of different temperatures and density is not the engine of AMOC. This was pointed out in 2010, an article on "Nature". The engine of ocean currents is the Southern Ocean, with strong wind and the tidal gravitational force interaction with the moon. In the Geo historical context, AMOC has been halted several times, when it happens Europe goes ice age.
Absent truthful details
The oceans are the temperature regulator so, they work together. "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."
Yes.
She didn't mention the fact that the Earth has lost 30% percent of its Magnetosphere, Pole shifting, underwater Volcanism, and how the Earth's core is responsible for the warm and cold underwater conveyor that water circulation going. In the end, everyone on the planet is along for the ride. The question is : How many will survive ?
I always enjoy seeing the charts. The years we have monitored and have data on are always smooth or nothing crazy but as soon as it gets to the future that we have to predict things go absolutely haywire 😂
2:20 wait, the temperature might change by 80°C in some parts of the world?
It was in excess of -45C this winter in Alberta and the Northwest Territories. Mars is -75 on a sunny day. Either way, hot coffee will be worth gold. I'm planning a franchise on Mars, like a Tim Horton's. I will charge whatever I damn well please.
Been saying this for ages
just continue analyzing
How much has ocean acidity changed over the last few decades?
Between 1950 and 2020, the average pH of the ocean surface fell from approximately 8.15 to 8.05. ... A change in pH by 0.1 represents a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration in the world's oceans...
- Wikipedia: Ocean acidification
If you lived by the Ocean for a while you would have noticed that the shells are much thinner and more fragile. The sea life once abundant has decreased.
@ wikilies is no serious source goofball
@@Nehner If you thinks so. You are free to look up primary sources. Let us know about your findings.
@ my no 1 and 2 source worldwide is wattsupwiththat and notrickszone and Malcolm Roberts from Australia
They all do not lie to people.
Clintelpointorg
EIKE IN germany
My sweet-corn, larded baby Geezus, her voice! 🤤
So warming will cause the overturning to slow in the future even though it isn't currently slowing down with the warming we've already experiencing. The overturning isn't just happening because of the sinking at cold places, it's a whole system which includes the warm parts pushing their way arond the globe, and the warm parts of the cycle will be much warmer and stronger.
The models don't agree on when AMOC Shutdown occurs but at least one qualified scientist indicates 30 years.
I know it is important to focus on one problem at a time however: "everything affects everything". Ocean current disruptions are just one symptom of an increase of global warming. Heat transfer disruptions through the atmosphere is also a symptom. Melting permafrost which releases more CO2 and methane in a reinforcing feedback is another. Our global climate system has been stable for thousands of years. If any system in the teleconnections of all climate systems fails it affects them all and the global climate system will become unstable and we will "not" be able to model that.
I don't think she is correct, everything happens faster than they project, they are wrong every time.
Chaos is good (for someone) but it's not (good) to spread panic
The food chain will collapse much earlier than the AMOC shut down, so we don't need to worry about that.
Just worry about not enough fish in the sea, droughts and floods that destroy arable land, and a collapse of Farming.
This will bring a severe Population "adjustment".
Previous ice ages only took years, why should now be any different?
What happens when a heat sink overflows?
It is going to be a rapid change of the over turning of ocean current. It has begun. Oceans are already affected.
Let's not assume that global warming and its putative causes are solely responsible for AMOC variations. Solar and cosmic radiation, geomagnetic forces in flux are among other possible causes. Many of us feel this catastrophic change is imminent. And yes--Hollywood has given us a scenario that has touched a nerve for all of us in the NOrthern Hemisphere. Collect wool clothing and blankets, people.
In physics when elements are heated up, the faster the molecules move.
This is why solid ice turns to liquid water when heated.
Doesn't this mean a warmer ocean current would move "faster"?
..interesting subject.
We must take necessary from nature not greed
Lets take sulfur out of fuel and blame warming oceons on CO2.
"Tides go in and tides go out, can't explain that"
stop the tides NOW or all your shorelines will be degraded
This is what The Tao De Ching meant by 'Tao' or 'The Way of the Universe.' Surfs up!
9 years
My question: why does the volume in my ice latee drop as the ice melts?
Because you keep sipping at it
Adaptability as always.
We are so screwed.
Remind you, The Day After Tomorrow is a 2004 film.
We all breathe the same air. We drink the same water. We share the same land
So climate change is probably even going to take a turn to the worse. I would rather like to be optimistic some day. 😢
Glad I’m 50
Creative society
Doesn't matter how many charter jetliners holidays, the budget a d environment will balance itself😢
brava
9 years? we are so f
Everyone in the room including her flew there in a carbon spewing jet to hear her talk about climate change. Is it irony or hypocrisy?
Well the UK will have a winter lasting a long time. Well the gas companies will put the prices up again.
Assuming natural gas is even available in the UK. That is questionable. Norway is the best ally in this scenario.
Oh SNAP!
Yes, or: Are the changing ocean currents changing the climate? When the sun is the cause of the change, coupled with the weakening of the magnetic field.
Abstract :
The energy that dominates the earth is very great, some of it is natural, like the heat of the sun and volcanoes, and some of it is human action, by cutting down trees, without replacing them and cultivating in their place...
There are five forces that control or dominate the planet...
1- The first theory (horizontal dynamic movement) and its end...
The occurrence of storms, rain, floods and snow, at unexpected times and places, is because of the expiration of this theory, which needs to be balanced...
2- The second theory (vertical dynamic movement) and its end...
This movement or force controls or dominates the earthquakes, earth cracks, drying up of rivers and lakes, earth openings, mountain collapses, and the emergence of drinking water springs on the ground...
It becomes out of control...
These phenomena increased due to the end of this theory...
The third theory: it is water that rotates the earth...
The fourth theory: the Earth's axis of rotation has tilted 2° degrees...
The fifth theory: The Earth has a new orbit...
These studies had completed and sent on July 26th 2000
YOUSIF A TOBIYA
What a lovely woman.
Currents are the effect of temperature differentials, and solar energy hits the large body at the equator ^2 more than the poles because the earth is a sphere, so currents should increase not decrease with more energy trapped in the atmosphere imho. The math doesn't follow her claims
You failed to account for ice melt. She partially explained. Ice melt decreases salinity so it's harder for ocean water to drop to the deep undercurrent back to the equator and beyond. More over, ice melt decreases white reflection surface. The Arctic warms 3x faster than global average. Which intensifies ice melt, and sweet water mixing with salt ocean water, again interfering with a drop to the deep current.
She should do voice work for video games
I do not understand why we gather info for decades but are slow to risk an engineering intervention... Can we not tap the cexcess fresh water from melting Greenland glaciers and pump it to populated points on the North American Atlantic seaboard for use by humanity. Can we not gather salinity from oceanic or continental sources and seed it in the less easily tappable areas of meltwater so as to elinate that cold spot? There is not even talk of intervention. Are we not capable of intervening without doing even greater further damage?
every human intervention has led to even worse consequences . I am speaking about the introduction of plants or animals to serve some purpose . It is best we not try to intervene as we never learn from our mistakes
Oceanography is simple to understand. The planet spins on a axis and the moons gravity pulls on the oceans. That creates the current and circulates the waters from warm to cold, cold to warm. The amount of carbon has zero impact on the currents slowing down or speeding up. Once the planet warms to a certain point it's equilibrium will kick in and the planet will start to cool. Warm weather ND more carbon dioxide is good for the planet and for humans. Sure coastlines change slightly and it will be hotter but plants will love it. More food and oxygen is a good thing.
Couldn’t it just be a new ice age?
In fact, the last Ice Age is still ongoing. Look at Antarctica! Look at Greenland!
Drill, baby, drill!
I always thought of farts as silent but deadly as a joke
As always she 'forgot' to say the amoc is cyclical 40 years warmer 40 years colder 40 years warmer. She also " forgot" to explain that a reduced amoc starts a negative feedback loop which leads to a stronger amoc.
Where did you get that from?
It looks like all those dots definitely contribute to climate change with all those ships and manufactured buoys, we all contribute even in the name of science.
militaries world wide: "all hands on deck ... sure sure, but you can't have my Co2 exhaust data, others may use it to calculate our fuel consumption and that is against national security"
Mercifully few errors.
8 months later….well, the answer is yes, and is happening 😓
Ecosystems change many times time for us now😅😅😅
Yall it’s time to stop wishing and hoping for change, get angry and demand it from the governments and elites obstructing our future.
Learning about this, I'm like: O(H )SNAP
👏👏👏
This has been predicted for many years. Not a "new" thing.
Shall I go tell the king Henny Penny. Actually they can take the carbon from the carbon capture stuff & make it into quiklime & alkalinize the ocean.
The occurrence of stoms,rains,ice, and floods at times and in unexpected places,confirms my theory the end of the (dynamic horizontal movement )which needs to balance and it sill under control to balance...
But about earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, sinkholes, tsunami, dry lakes and rivers, flow of water from the mountains and hills,explodeand of eyes water from the ground, formation of new mountains or islands, collaps of mountains ,and cracks on ground,& ,& ,&,they are out of control or balance...
Note :The earth will become like Venus...
Yousif A Tobiya