Finding Great Companies in a Challenging Macro Environment with Jeff Muhlenkamp
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- Опубликовано: 4 июн 2024
- In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp and Company. We discuss Jeff's views on inflation, the likelihood of a recession, and the possibility of another financial crisis. We also take a in depth look at his investment process, which focuses on finding good companies with strong growth, profitability, and financial strength. He also discusses the importance of understanding management incentives and how he incorporates macroeconomic factors into his investment decisions.
00:00 - Introduction
01:35 - Will inflation remain high?
04:50 - Discussing the likelihood of a recession
09:50 - Possibility of another financial crisis
14:20 - Jeff's investment process and criteria for good companies
18:40 - Importance of return on equity in Jeff's analysis
22:10 - Investing in an inflationary vs. deflationary environment
25:00 - Evaluating growth and its sustainability
29:15 - Defining financial strength
32:20 - The role of management and communicating with them
38:00 - What Jeff finds attractive in the current market
47:50 - Technology in healthcare and the future of nuclear power
50:15 - Concerns about political decisions impacting innovation and growth
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![TRASH or PASS! Eminem ( Houdini ) [REACTION!!!]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/cB1WrZcMwMc/mqdefault.jpg)
5:37 whoa whoa whoa. Hey Jeff we are putting in fiscal stimulus AS WELL AS monetary stimulus with rates above 5%!! That’s free money for people who already have money AND lending institutions can lend more knowing that they can get a nice easy profit with 5% base rate! Cmon now!
For oil, when the prices tanked in 2015 it forced companies to manage their assets better. The companies that were already managed well were able to purchase of the assets of those that were not. It was a repeat of the 1990's when oil became cheap and Exxon back acquired confirmed oil assets on wall street instead of having to explore and find brand new ones. Frackers are looking to extract lithium from the brine they pump back up from underground giving them revenue not corelated with oil prices.
if LMT can get its otec system to work using the accumulating thermal energy in the ocean to produce electricity, these system perhaps supplemented with wave power and wind generation and solar could go in H2 production for aviation and shipping. The Germans have developed a magnesium paste to store hydrogen giving energy density comparable to lithium batteries. In such a scenario, the American greenback could increasingly transition from a Petro dollar into a hydrogen dollar.
that's why now big tech just think about profitability, earning and cash flow
the reason because gold go up is that long term rate are too low. you can see it on the mortgage rate
30 year mortgage rate are too high compare to 30 year treasury
I feel sorry for you guys who think the yield curve means anything, and that higher rates create a recession. You guys are losing your and other people’s money, and I’m just taking it from you. And I’m going to take it all…
22:18 “macro doesn’t matter”… 😂🤣😂🤣😂 it’s the only thing that matters! What a goofball
If You Spend 13 Minutes A Year On Economics, You’ve Wasted 10 Minutes - Peter Lynch
@@HepCatJack Peter Lynch suffers from hindsight bias.
@@MichaeldeSousaCruz his fund returned 30% a year for 13 years. Didn't seem to hurt his returns any.
@@HepCatJackPeter Lynch invested in times where the markets were still working organically as they should, so corporate fundamentals drove price. Now a days, it is all about monetary and fiscal policies. Peter Lynch's style of trading would get obliterated in the post GFC world, let alone in the post Covid world.
@@HepCatJack that’s good! I just took in 37% last year. On track for 70% this year. And I won’t stop until I take it all
The point of Steve Jobs being a jerk in the day not necessarily meaning that Apple wouldn't be a good investment could be a proxy for Musk known for rage firing people at Tesla however Jobs wisely stayed out of politics. Musk seems to follow Henry Ford I with his politics alienating the people who usually purchased Tesla cars. Henry Ford I managed to make money from both sides of WWII but his receiving a medal from A.H damaged his reputation domestically. It remains to be seen if Musk's outing himself as being a right winger will get him more customers from that side than what those he lost as a result. Legacy car owners have negotiated a deal to use Tesla's charging standards and access to Tesla's charging booths so this may result in a stream of income unrelated to Tesla's popularity or unpopularity. Smaller EV companies are struggling, perhaps they will be acquired by the legacy players to help them catch up to BYD and Tesla.
WD Gann who looked at long term economic cycles made a table of prosperity and recessions more than 100 years ago. His extended tables predict a good year for 2024 but a recession in 2025.