Wildfire Threat Weakens / Next Heatwave Arrives August 1st (Thursday)

THE BOREL FIRE
As of this writing, the conflagration has consumed 57,198 acres and is only 5% contained. It is currently a Category 4 wildfire. That is based on the 24-hour increase in acreage burned, in this case 7,924 new acres. A Category 4 fire burns 5,000-16,000 new acres in a 24-hour period, which is very aggressive. For a time over the weekend, it was consuming more than 16,000 acres per day, which was extremely aggressive as a Cat 5. Most of the active portion of the fire is now on the northeast flank, burning through the area just north of Piute Peak and headed east toward the Kelso Valley. The winds have died down enough to end the Fire Weather Warning (Red Flag) over the Kern mountains and the Kern River Valley. Winds are forecast to be limited for the next two days. Expect much more containment through Wednesday. An eastward wind should start Thursday and may begin to push some of the smoke into the San Joaquin Valley. For now, the worst air quality is in the Lake Isabella area, Ridgecrest and the eastern Sierras.
RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW
Models show the resurgence of high pressure coming out of the Rockies, moving westward. Temperatures will go back up into the triple digits Thursday and bring back the monsoonal flow. Moisture out of the Gulf returns. We can expect thunderstorms to develop Friday and Saturday in the mountain and desert portions of Kern County. The bad news there is that dry lightning from these storms could ignite more wildfires. So, I'll be watching the progress of a tropical wave moving up from northern Mexico Thursday into Friday. At this time I don't anticipate any rain for the South Valley, but in the month of August it is always a remote possibility. Flooding rains from the monsoon should stay just to the east of Kern County.
HEAT WAVE #4
The same easterly flow will kick off our next heat wave Thursday. It should last about 10 days. It is not expected to be as long or intense as the Heatwave #3. Nonetheless, it will bring several days of extreme heat stress conditions. We are only about halfway through summer. Yesterday was the nadir (low point) of our rainy season. Now the daily probability of rainfall is ever so slightly beginning to go up until we get to January and February when those chances peak. This coming Thursday, August 1st, is also Lammas Day- the astronomical mid-point of summer. So, we are around the halfway point of this very hot summer. The month we're in right now, July 2024, will easily become the hottest month ever for Bakersfield.