Forecast Update - March 14, 2024 - Significant Severe Threat from Southern Plains to Midwest
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- Опубликовано: 13 мар 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri today with a large Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending into the Midwest. In the southern mode, convection is expected to rapidly become severe by midday with a large to giant hail threat given strong instability and weakening low-level shear. These storms are expected to congeal into a line with additional activity expected along its southeast flank with time. After dark, the low-level jet ramps up with an attendant increase in the risk for tornadoes, some perhaps strong.
Farther north from eastern Missouri into western Ohio, less clarity in the forecast exists. Ongoing convection this morning is producing outflow, and where that outflow boundary sets up later could be a focus for a more potent severe threat. Some models also continue to fire storms behind the morning activity, which could sully the environment. If discrete supercells can fire, all hazards are possible, including tornadoes and large to very large hail.
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Congrats Trey💪 That storm (after merging) and tornado near Alta Vista was awesome. I "chased" this beauty also with Reed Timmer, Connor and Max Olson live steams and structure of that storm and clear slot was simply amazing🤩 Wish you all the Best in today and all future chases. Stay safe👊
Thank you! Yeah, it was an extremely impressive storm. One of the best examples of an RFD cut/occlusion I’ve seen out in the field.
I'm happy that tornado didn't wipe out Alma or McFarland like I thought it was gonna. Just mostly tore up some fields and a few sheds 'n barns, from the sounds of it.
The cinnamon bun reflectivity. That was insane.
I wondered abt you seeing that Alta Vista storm last night! I was flipping between a few chasers’ live streams and things seemed to go from meh to !! pretty quickly.
We had some rain earlier in the St Louis area. I’ll keep an eye on things during the day. Thanks for the video!
@@dragnflei That storm went from total garbage to structured tornado producer in just a few minutes!
Looks like you had some action in the St Louis metro over the last couple hours. Hope all is ok in your area!
I typically take both the SPC and your analysis into account when I'm determining how concerned i should be about my area. I also look at the data myself, using what I've learned here before i fully write off an event. This channel has definitely helped me learn more about meteorology and is helping me overcome storm anxiety, brought on by April 27, 2011.
So thank you! Thank you for doing what you do, and please continue to educate!
Love hearing that, thank you!
Hey everybody, Trey here.....
I’m chasing in the 10% hatched. Thanks for the forecast
Be safe and good luck!
I can't wait to see your follow up video of the unexpected outbreak in IN and OH. I am curious how a 5% tor risk performed like a 15%
I’d imagine something similar to what happened on December 9, 2023, that was a 5% too
Thankyou for your time and energy for doing this. You are now my go to for the best thorough in-depth analysis of what’s coming. Or, what had been. Congrats if you was there for all the amazing weather in Kansas yesterday evening!! Beautiful tornado, was even beautiful on radar!! Never said that before!!! God bless and I’m thankful you are safe . Stay safe today!!!🙏🙏🙏
Thank you so much! I was on that tornadic supercell in Kansas last night, it was pretty awesome!
Just found your channel last night and really glad I did, especially right now living in Indiana.
Thank you!
12z NAM, HOT OFF THE PRESS! 🗣🗣🗣
Thx for taking the time to do a video for us. It feels stormy here in SW MO. Stay safe everyone!
Great video, as always excited to see the chaser footage
Thank you!
Banger update Trey! I really appreciate the details and thinking out loud bits. Looks like a battle of the models: Regular NAM vs the CAMs. Should be fun!
Thank you! I agree!
What a complicated forecast. I did not think it could destabilize quick enough behind the earlier mcs. I was mistaken. We had just bought a fire truck in Delaware county Indiana last Thursday. They told us storms always split and went around them. That was not the case obviously.
Thank You
Best of to everyone
Nice video!!! Currently in louisville (3-14, 1:56 pm) its sunny (not good) and im seeing some ominous clouds appear while im at school. Hopefully nothing bad happens in that enh risk. Stay safe everyone 🫵
Airing on the side of caution with that cape number it seems.
Things are going absolutely insane in ohio. I am definitely looking forward to your thoughts on how this event has played out
It’s where the shear is…very strong low level shear/SRH developed in that area, whereas elsewhere, there was generally weak low level shear
Thanks for putting this video out! Äm in Extreme NW ARKANSAS very helpful! ☮️
Of course! Stay safe!
Our horse has a veterinarian appointment in Wentzville today at 3pm, we will be driving from Northeast Missouri, Kirksville. Any advice? 😬
Tough to say. Probably the earlier you go the better; that way you’ll get there before the potential ramps up later
@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you. My eyes will be on the sky.
@@ConvectiveChronicles We escaped Wentzville. We left the vet clinic at 4, tornado sirens were going off, the area we were in has many trees and hills, so it felt extra vulnerable being in the area. We stayed off of 1-70 until we knew we were west of the storm. I was not about to get trapped on the interstate. We stopped in New Florence thinking we’d be able to better miss a storm cell, which I thought we were ok, then a nice big clunk hit the windshield, about a golf ball sized chunk of hail. Then about a minute later loose nickel to quarter sized hail. The trees still had most of their blooms afterwards. I REALLY APPRECIATE the information you and many other chasers put online prior to these storms, thank you for running through the different models this morning!
@@kimberlyhelbing Of course; thank you! Glad you were able to stay out of harm's way; that event really flipped the switch by late afternoon.
Hi there! I really appreciate you and your videos. Sorry for probably a very stupid question, ummmm...yesterday I really wanted to watch you do a live chase, do you chase under a different name? Thanks so much!
Thank you! I unfortunately don’t live stream when I chase; I did it in the past and it was difficult for me to focus on the storm chase and the stream at the same time.
I will have to watch this later since I'm busy at work. 10% sig severe enjoyers.
Just gonna be a very interesting day overall. We'll see if they turn this into a bi-modal set up but for now all hazards are 100% on the table for today. Still quite a surprise as I keep saying for the hatched.....though.....the Soundings coming in from Southern OK already are making me say "oh.......well.....those are not too bad hodographs already". This has all the makings of a very complicated day overall.
Oh and damn nice you saw that KS tornado yesterday. That was a stupidly good photogenic cone tornado.
The storms In Ohio are over performed i was not even expecteing a tornado today in Ohio I underestimated there's 13 tornado warnings currently
It’s where the strongest low level shear was
Wow, and now look at these much more discrete supercells near the MO/IL border while the southern mode is much more linear. Interesting evolution!
Our local news meteorologist this morning have went from no risk of tornadoes to a possibility of one or two small spin ups for early tomorrow morning. Pointing to sufficient surface base instability as being the reason. Of course I'm sure after reading and answering alot of my questions over the past year or so (Which I greatly appreciate) you know that I live here in northwest Alabama. So now I'm asking the person I've come to trust when it comes to these situations. Would the surface base instability be sufficient enough for anything of concern for where I live? Also, March seems to be slow as far as severe weather is concerned. So I'm feeling like the weather in traditional tornado alley and possibly dixie alley might not be as stingy with tornadic storms as it has been in March when Apriland May gets here. I got to see alot of video of the tornado in Kansas. Hope that you got to have a informative filled chase with those storms. Have a good one!
March can be quiet, however the past couple years have been crazy (2021 Alabama, 2022 Iowa, 2023 Rolling Fork)
@@hotdog9423 March 23, 2023 one went through my area here in Florence, Alabama. Matter of fact. I think the Rolling Fork Mississippi storm was the same outbreak that affected us. Im very interested in what April is going to bring. I have learned not to pay alot of attention to anything past 2 weeks. But there have been some agreement with models pointing at the end of March possibly the start of April, with a pretty decent system that could impact a large portion of the country. But as always, things will change lol.
I think the local meteorologists are right…could see a spin up or two later.
NOOOOO
NOTTTT RIGHT NOW ARRR
Last time there were storm chasers in the area it was a bust. People’s cars may or may not get hammered this time since people will be heading home from work/school and nobody uses their garages to store their cars. I’ll be sure to stand outside during the hail with a camera like a smart person.
Wear a hardhat and you’ll be fine
Weather extreme games large hail concussion challenge lol. No hard hats allowed, whoever gets knocked out last wins lol.
Is there severe weather for central KY later this evening?
Low end risk for all hazards
Man the models cannot figure out what to do with this setup. It's such a weird positioning of the stalled trough and no real shortwaves or anything, and like you showed we even have some height rises and ridging coming in. It seems you were right about the 10% hatched since the hatched has since been removed from the tornado area as everything is already congealing into a line in the Oklahoma regime.
There was a pretty nasty tornado along the Kentucky border at the start of the event, and looking through the video the HRRR actually had a nasty helicity streak right over the area where the tornado hit, a rare CAM precise prediction.
Overall this looks like a major hail event with some distinct tornado possibilities depending on where that outflow boundary sets up. Annoyingly, central TX is now under the gun for a 15% hatched hail tomorrow, as well, and the HRRR is showing some pretty nasty supercells. I always love when spring time weather messes up weekend plans haha.
Sounds like you had a successful chase last night, too! That incredible supercell in Kansas was just insane, though it annoyingly didn't want to fully plant to the ground until daylight was really waning, it was toying with all the chasers.
Great video, as always, Trey! Storm season getting off the ground!
Thank you! Yeah, this setup was really a weird one. Glad to have salvaged this system with last night’s event in KS.
any chance of storms in lawrence kansas today ?
No
Feel like yesterday helped warrant the 10%. Shocked to see its now sig. going to be a interesting today. Are you chasing today also congrats on seeing the tornado yesterday
Thank you; yes, I’m chasing in OK today
in ohio expectations main threat is hail and a chance of a tornado
Reality big time tornado outbreak in ohio
I’m still not sure about the tornado risk further south, the SPC are the experts though.
I agree
I might die from hail.
I do trust SPC over your analysis... BUT.... not entirely. I was just thinking yesterday the SPC should probably consider hiring you. Daily video updates on top of what they already release would be 💯 for public messaging, imho. Question for ya: Is a Dr. Greenwood in the cards?
Thank you…if there were one desk job I’d do, it would be SPC. I don’t think I’ll be going back to get my PhD, but I’m not closing that door fully.
Looks like we ended up a lot closer to the 13z HRRR solution today with a bunch of discrete supercells in the northern mode
True, although tornado potential has been a bit on the low side with those
@ConvectiveChronicles nothing like that textbook Kansas storm last night! One of the best radar presentations I can remember. Can't wait to hear what you have to say about it. Thanks for everything, Trey
@@mxb1337 It was a pretty awesome storm! Definitely a nice appetizer for the main part of the season.
Yet another 10% hatched, starting to feel like they hand it out a bit too much
I agree but I'd rather be over cautious than under. Too often makes people get used to it sure, but if they didn't and a major tornado or something rolled through all we would hear is "oh boy yall they missed this one".
I mean they kind of need to if theres a risk of a significant tornado so people are prepared
maybe
I live here in Alabama, so I watch James Spann everyday. And he agrees with the same thinking. The people who have done this for years understand that may be a bit overboard. But the channels that are more likley to sensationalize their thumbnails will take those numbers and instead of being responsible about the information they are providing, they use it to gain clicks. And I get it, they want to get the views. But be responsible and don't freak people out that aren't as educated about weather. But, there can always be surprises lol.
They took it (SIGTOR) away with the mid-day update, but then they vastly undershot the risk for Indiana, northern Kentucky, and most of Ohio.
Not sure what caused them to introduce a 10% tornado risk in an area with very little shear, but at the same time keep the areas with known low level shear at just 5%. Even after they released the MCD and then tornado watch in early-mid afternoon talking about a favorable environment for some discrete supercells, too.