Wow, I did not expect such a great honest intellect spreading such an informed perspective on any even slightly mainstream news show like Bloomberg. Thanks and good job! PS: Melkman seems like a genius alcoholic.
@Roger Clemons yeah thanks for the summary, I know what he was trying to convey, I was really impressed with the way he provided his logic and reasoning to support those thesis
Bloomberg is 100X better than CNBC. CNBC does nothing but sensationalize the news. Certain commentators on that network should be fired for their twisted commentary that has at time affected stock price movements for the wrong reasons. Bloomberg is objective and ask relevant questions. Objectivity may seem boring to some but when we're talking real money, it's valued. Far better than CNBC's donkey host during mid-day who laughs, doesn't take her job seriously, sensationalizes news and is constantly corrected by guests she interviews. There's also the football player turned options trader who never has an intelligent thing to say. He only regurgitates what "they are doing" in the options market. He has no fundamentally sound commentary to make on the network. Another idiot shows up on set early in the morning and again after market close to host is own special nutty show. In the morning he looks like a burnout afraid to make eye contact with the camera, possibly because his eyes look like he's been out drinking all night long, and in the afternoon, he sounds like he drank a pot of coffee as he yells into the camera. Generally, CNBC is a horrible network. There are a few good commentators but the bad outweigh the good because they suck all the oxygen out of the room while highlighting their stupidity.
What a genuinely brilliant interview with a genius guest. Ben is probably the most articulate voice I've heard on the mechanics of multi asset class information from an extraordinary pov. This conversation outdoes many interviews done even with guests such as Druckenmiller on Real Vision. Packed with meticulous detail and freeform thoughts in an easy and comfortable-to-listen-to 30min segment. This is an absolute rare gem.
Best insight into what the future might hold that I've heard in a long time. What I take home from this interview is that a companies PE ratio is going to mean something again. Great interview.
The markets stagnating or even giving slightly negative returns doesn't worry me at all. I don't invest in the markets, I invest in companies. Most of the companies I invest in grow and as they grow, so does their value. The markets could have dropped 50% in the last 10 years, you'd still have made 1000s of percent profit with Amazon and Netflix.
Great interview! Thanks Ben and Erik! A Japan like result of low growth and low inflation and very high debt is definitely possible for the U.S. And yes, it would be very bad. One difference from Japan is that the U.S. remains a major source of innovation from (tech) companies like Google, Amazon, Tesla, SpaceX, etc. My key takeaway is volatility increasing due to economic controls becoming less effective. Or something much worse.
Any real asset is good to own. Some real estate, certain REITs like datacenters, warehouses, timber, fine art, gold, minerals, and absolutely entrepreneurship. You are your own best asset. When there is a vaccine, urban real estate and office space may turn around. Not sure about shopping malls, which were mostly not doing well even before.
I have always been in real estate. Just luck. It was good to me through the baby boom. Very good. I am now in Peru in the middle of a baby boom. From 2006 to 2019 prices steadily increased, slowed during the so called crisis of 08 but continued until now. Lost a couple months rent and values have taken a hit with the emergency. Still good positive cash flow. Not interested in the money. All goes to education of my vecinos. I can't help but make money!!! It's wild. We also have 600,000 Venezolanos in Lima. Space is tight!!
Actually I benefited from all three. I built houses on speculation mostly. I would rent them to tourists and I would sell them only paying long term capital gains. No FICA. Which was the greatest tax I paid in life. I built one or two houses a year. There were times when you could steal land and times when it was pricey. There were times when things went crazy....so I sold!!! Any fool can see prices don't go up forever. I once zinged a big time investor. I think it was 87? Six months after I sold the property the economy tanked....that felt good...housing...food.... transportation....only housing has not been dominated by big business. Whaduiknow!!!
I enjoyed this interview. I've watched it several times. I believe the most likely area where Ben Melkman is going to miss on his predictions is Long term rates over the coming several years. The Fed will do everything in their Power to keep them Anchored below 3% and they can succeed at this thru a operation twist or Y.C.C . The environment will become more palatable for the fed to do this as early as late 2021 if Stock fall into a severe correction (w rising yields) or in a year as GDP slows from 7% in 2021 (thanks to stimulus and reopening) to much more modest rates around 3.5 in 2022 and Beyond. AS the growth rates slow there will be more political capital to Alter long Rates and keep stock valuations elevated which will help keep pension solvent ...which is basically a national security issue
This guy is way smarter and knowledgable than me but what I see is a huge amount of cash on the sidelines and 5 year CD rates at under 1%. People will want to put their money somewhere. Real estate is complicated. Gold and bitcoin are, hmm, not for the bulk of one's portfolio imo. Stocks are easy, you just make a few clicks on your keyboard and boom, you own stocks with their resultant dividends. I have three friends with a healthy amount of cash who are just waiting for another crash or heavy correction and they're putting it right into the market.
I am a futures market day trader and you hit the nail on the head. My investors have invested 2.5x more money in 2020 than ever before. People with deep pockets need to make fast cash. No way better than clicking the mouse and being liquid by market close.
We're at the cusp of some major technological innovation in AI, automation, space tech, gene tech etc. and we have a rising China. Thats what will drive development in the next 10 years.
I agree, lot of these variables are correct in how Ben delivers the narrative, but we're in a hybrid of 1960-1970s in terms of politics/fiscal spending, as he says, but we're closer to post civil war 1870-1890s in terms of business growth and economic development - the US is currently battling deflationary pressures (confused with Japanese deflation vs innovation driven deflation) with hyper-inflationary measures, interest rates are backwards now vs 1960-1970s allowing excessive spending, it's almost like we're in a monetary civil war
The deficits spending filled in for private spending that went away as a result of the lock down. We don't need to maintain this program going forward because private spending will pick up. We have had plenty of short term deficit spending programs that helps during a recession. Now monetary stimulus has been a different story since 2008. Federal reserve wasn't able to reduce its balance sheet by a significant amount. As they attempted to reduce the balance sheet in 2018, we also saw a slow down in growth.
Central Banking reform is required. Fed must sponsor UBI to hit inflation targets. Then government can cut social spending and pay down debt and debt can be inflated away and P/E ratios justified. Banking sector will also benefit from normalized interest rates. In this environment you need hard assets like commodities and real estate. Emerging market bonds (high yielding) combined with Forex volatility will create fantastic carry trade opportunities.
"if the authorities are actually successful in curing the problem that they see, that's actually what finally blows up the system to a certain extent" Wow. This is July 2021 and I came back to that interview after almost a year. 5.4% latest CPI reading. That warning is actually scary.
We've been on a 100 year bull run in the equities market. I think it's unsustainable for the equities market to keep growing at the current rate. FAANG stocks can't keep growing at the same rate for the next decade or their market caps will be bigger than the US economy. It's unrealistic. Unless America's economy grew 10-15% a year, but we can't even get it to grow 3% even with a "business-man" in the White House. I think as dollar gets weaker, and equities see flat returns for the years to come, people will invest in other things or see their savings get devalued. It's going to go to undervalued assets, gold, silver, maybe even crypto. It will be a sad decade or more for America, thanks to our policy makers.
Melkman is genius. He describes financial and social movements and we can see where other commentators latch onto one element and push it. eg buy assets but in this well developed scenario you may not see a return as fast as ofher pundits say. The curve is uncertain future civil unrest (enhanced by future unfunded pension schemes etc, contingent liabilities) is certain. Opportunities will abound but we have to see how the future unravels economicly and timewise to know where to look. In short dont grab dreams, wait and see how the wind blows.
“times are great for macro, ...by the way, I’ m a macro investor” He can be righ ( I think he is) or he could be wrong. One think is certain, he’s selling his book.
Very interesting interview. How the government plans to handle the huge deficit has been answered: rates will be zero for decades. Makes sense. I'm not so sure about the PV effect on equities. I think companies will earn good profits in the future. The net present value of these profits has got to be positive.
There already is inflation (expansion of the money/credit supply). The moment they print they create inflation. The effects are also already visible. Stock market at record highs and the increasing dollar gold price.
@Roger Clemons that makes sense to me, but why do they bother doing it then? If the digitally created dollars are not circulated/have no velocity, what good are they? Do they actually help or stimulate anything?
How can interest rates stay low in the US and Europe without some sort of financial repression? Are central banks simply the buyer of last resort or is the market going reassert itself?
Constraints-based framework. Start with the things that are certain. ZIRP. Extrapolate from there. Capital flowing out to currencies (which Wall St doesn't trade for retirees via passive vehicles) Capital flowing out from equities (as Ben mentioned -- due to "pulled forward" value and declining consumption going forward) Capital flowing out of bonds (unless safe-haven, risk-off events) Where do pension funds get their 7% hurdles in this environment? (Add in a growing demographics of deflationary, cash-holding, low spending boomers) This is very much the japanification of the US over the 2020's the X factor...will a US president acknowledge this probable outcome and bring war to the doorstep as the out (ala Roosevelt) Way to think differently Bloomberg...keep following Real Vision on the format, it'll work well with the younger demographics. :)
In those discussion I always wonder..if you talk about "people" realizing something..what part of people do you refer too? Many people have no idea about Money and how it comes about. Done by design....very very few understand what you talk about.. So how would you create a change...for the people by the people.
Yes, agreed. Most people dont have the resources to plan ahead indeed are currently burdened wifh debt and unemployed. All commentators are either wealthy enough to survive the time frame discussed or are spreading alarm and dispondency by describing a future beyond their audiences control.
Key points: volatility in FX; 60/40 portfolio may not work b/c bonds have low return and are exposed to inflation; stocks have high valuations; low interest rates will continue; covid caused structural permanent changes in economy; there’s an expanding debt profile preventing adjusting rates upward (this was a concern in 2009); 0 returns on equities; 0 interest rate; dollar 💵 is threatened; 1970s inflation could be coming. My question; where’s the inflation actually going to come from? Inflation is a rise in general prices, so what prices will rise?
Peace Meditate 60 40 is part equities part fixed income and portfolios are designed to match the clients risk, not for you to put your risk tolerance on the investor
In the options, a move to gold would seem prudent. Gold has a dense electron gas cloud around the conduction zone where these electrons can be harvested through a multiple quantum nanoparticles, via, topological Hall effect or "Berry Phase" reaction. This involves a prototype closed system that amplifies a loop of a weak initial electron production, to a final plasma field. This is an oversimplification, because the intricacies of this is extremely complex, thus for someone without a background in the quantum sciences would quickly become lost.
@@denisehill1705 I have retired several years ago and have a retirement account. What is important for me now is to bring to fruition a quantum Hall topological devise that breaks symmetry and gold nanoparticles (
@Roger Clemons are you one of my nephews that wanders off and smokes some "weed" at our family reunions, just joking. I don't claim to know everything. My reason for existing, is to present a solution to finding for a new energy source. At 72 years old, my goal in life is to formulate a plan to that end. When I worked in classical chemistry, years ago, I solved complex problem, it was very exciting and fulfilling. I always knew I could solve these problems, not as a sence of arrogance, but just as a sence of absolute knowing. With savantism this just is the way of things.
@@denisehill1705 intuitively I think you absolutely correct on everything you have stated about the financial aspects of gold. My advise to you is to fine a quiet place, clear your mind of all thoughts, and ask the questions, then listen for the answer. I have found that meditation always gives solutions, but not answer that you would always expect, but what ones you can depend on.
@Roger Clemons - Oh look, a low IQ pleb who thinks he sounds smart. Meanwhile Bitcoin has 10 years of history and more than $200 billion of value! But of course the arrogant low IQ pleb is right, ignore the facts!
Good stuff, but he is wrong on equities. Equities will go up with inflation, so will real estate. Business have the power to raise their prices, and they will. Along with wages and when they get too high, prices go up more. That is run away inflation, but if it doesn't run away, 3% or 4% inflation is not going to do anything but make real estate prices high and inflate stock prices along with it. Own both.
@@melvinthedeathless.melvint6727 Raising wages with inflation. If inflation runs away, then we get recession. Seems like Fed thinks they can control inflation above 2%
Hes talking about Forex trading. Hes saying the bond and stock market wont give returns people or need anymore. Hes saying people should learn the FX market.
@Roger Clemons how come all these big boys crunching numbers havn't figured out the Covid19 can only be cured by even more insane Bailouts.... doesnt matter if BillGates hired all the outta work Cigarette manufacturer's old doctors to vouch for him
Inflation is already here big time. I'm in Canada (where we expect to be price gouged and raped, food price wise) but mom is in LA and we both noticed it. We're not Economists; just 160 years of life experience. We remember inflation, and the last time that occurred almost all financial commentators weren't even BORN.
Yeh , he is right on the money. A real help is a universal income for the next 10 to 20 years till some recovery is achieved. The markers of recovery will include the ability of the feds to recover some of the loan/debt that was initiated during the crisis Your worst nightmare is stagnation
We do not need a universal income - except for the truly disabled. We need universal fallback jobs. This society simply cannot afford to carry 50% of the population for free.
As a rich man I can see that hes nervous a left government redistributing wealth but it's not going to happen. The FED is baking in so much pain and the plebes barely understand what's going on. A recession followed by a return to the status quo (printing( is almost guaranteed in the next few years. This leaves the rich, richer and ordinary Americans that much broker
Lets spend. Billionaires are not paying taxes and are immune to inflation. This spells disaster. Trump has been the worse thing that could possibly happen to the US economy. He just described inflation in equities real estate
But let's spend wisely and get something back from the people we support. Otherwise we turn a large portion of the population into social parasites. This would not be their fault. They need jobs, not handouts. That takes something in very short supply - leadership.
I agree with you, even large companies need help, my concern is that billionaires are allocating capital who knows where. They move globally, while saying globalism is bad. Trump is a NATIONALISTS YET HE has used several shady endeavors the make money in Scotland. RUclips has several international currency traders that broadcast from different hotels in tax havens. Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong. I think of them as tax dodging nomads.
We are entering a time of new markets and new opportunities. There are going to be a lot of all players who cannot adapt to the new world and are going to be left behind. Warren Buffett is probably exhibit a.
lol this guy uses excessive jargon for basically spouting BS. what hes trying to do is predict the future which im sorry to say, no matter how much technical jargon you try to use, nor technical models you try to use, you wont be able to do. hes basically saying he does not know. the future is uncertain thank you captain obvious.
@Roger Clemons IT SHOULD BE A PRIORITY FOR BIDEN TO TRY AND CONVICT TRUMP OF TREASON...... TO SHUT THE LOW IQ PEOPLE UP FOR GOOD. IF CONVICTED FOR TREASON THEY HAVE TO BE QUIET.... ENOUGH STUPIDITY ALREADY. i ENJOYED READING YOUR COMMENTS THANKS.
The US stock markets have had the benefit of not having any substitutes that can rival their returns for the past years. In purely return based comparison, they stood out in very obvious ways. This money that they received in the capital markets has fueled the development and growth of American industries. If you look at the BOP of the USA or any nation as a matter of fact, you will find that the flow of international wealth in capital exchange is the largest by a significant proportion. With the introduction of risk into the investment markets and the increasing money supply, there is substantial risk that unforeseen elements of the USA economy that lay dormant will reveal newly found weaknesses. This pandemic has the potential to expose the US economy.
The guys fund light sky macro only made money last year after four yrs - index funds are up more than this guy - why listen...unless it’s stuff that confirms your biases?
Peace Meditate- I couldn’t afford the ones with track records tepper druckenmiller oak tree etc the rest of these are useless a monkey could beat them - but ppl listen to their opinions 🤔
@Roger Clemons u looking for predictions? He is giving a thesis on how things might pan out.....he is kind of brilliant like Julien Brigden and lyn Alden
Very poor way to explain. Is he understanding himself what he's saying? I like how the interviewer is pretending to understand. Clearly interviewer also not getting most of it. Admit honestly.
A really educative video, it's important that we get the basic knowledge of the market before engaging. I myself have managed to remain profitable these past few months of global pandemic with the courtesy of CONS. BEN FOSTER a professional who assist me with my trades in Stocks & Forex.
Wow, I did not expect such a great honest intellect spreading such an informed perspective on any even slightly mainstream news show like Bloomberg. Thanks and good job! PS: Melkman seems like a genius alcoholic.
Definitely one of the most valuable interviews from Bloomberg. Such a valuable perspective.
@Roger Clemons yeah thanks for the summary, I know what he was trying to convey, I was really impressed with the way he provided his logic and reasoning to support those thesis
Bloomberg is 100X better than CNBC. CNBC does nothing but sensationalize the news. Certain commentators on that network should be fired for their twisted commentary that has at time affected stock price movements for the wrong reasons. Bloomberg is objective and ask relevant questions. Objectivity may seem boring to some but when we're talking real money, it's valued. Far better than CNBC's donkey host during mid-day who laughs, doesn't take her job seriously, sensationalizes news and is constantly corrected by guests she interviews. There's also the football player turned options trader who never has an intelligent thing to say. He only regurgitates what "they are doing" in the options market. He has no fundamentally sound commentary to make on the network. Another idiot shows up on set early in the morning and again after market close to host is own special nutty show. In the morning he looks like a burnout afraid to make eye contact with the camera, possibly because his eyes look like he's been out drinking all night long, and in the afternoon, he sounds like he drank a pot of coffee as he yells into the camera. Generally, CNBC is a horrible network. There are a few good commentators but the bad outweigh the good because they suck all the oxygen out of the room while highlighting their stupidity.
@Roger Clemons Seek help.
@Roger Clemons What "nice area" is your trailer park in?
Schatzker is a phenomenal financial markets interviewer. Best there is in my opinion, no one else comes close.
What a genuinely brilliant interview with a genius guest. Ben is probably the most articulate voice I've heard on the mechanics of multi asset class information from an extraordinary pov. This conversation outdoes many interviews done even with guests such as Druckenmiller on Real Vision. Packed with meticulous detail and freeform thoughts in an easy and comfortable-to-listen-to 30min segment. This is an absolute rare gem.
Best insight into what the future might hold that I've heard in a long time. What I take home from this interview is that a companies PE ratio is going to mean something again. Great interview.
I watched this three times. Thanks for this interview!
The markets stagnating or even giving slightly negative returns doesn't worry me at all. I don't invest in the markets, I invest in companies. Most of the companies I invest in grow and as they grow, so does their value. The markets could have dropped 50% in the last 10 years, you'd still have made 1000s of percent profit with Amazon and Netflix.
Great interview, very well spoken and thought out.
Great interview guys. Thank you for such in depth reporting.
when did Jack Black become a trader?
BM is a real star......Bloomberg, as always, outstanding.....
Great interview! Thanks Ben and Erik! A Japan like result of low growth and low inflation and very high debt is definitely possible for the U.S. And yes, it would be very bad.
One difference from Japan is that the U.S. remains a major source of innovation from (tech) companies like Google, Amazon, Tesla, SpaceX, etc.
My key takeaway is volatility increasing due to economic controls becoming less effective. Or something much worse.
VERY GOOD OBSERVATION.... DISRUPTIVE ETFS ARE A MUST NOW
@Jessie Marilyn Pension funds invest in tech too, but yes, pensions are a major problem.
That leaves real estate, your own skillset, and your own business as viable investments.
You forgot physical gold, and bitcoin (digital gold)
Any real asset is good to own. Some real estate, certain REITs like datacenters, warehouses, timber, fine art, gold, minerals, and absolutely entrepreneurship. You are your own best asset.
When there is a vaccine, urban real estate and office space may turn around. Not sure about shopping malls, which were mostly not doing well even before.
@@EnderViBrittania nah! Cuidate!
I have always been in real estate. Just luck. It was good to me through the baby boom. Very good. I am now in Peru in the middle of a baby boom. From 2006 to 2019 prices steadily increased, slowed during the so called crisis of 08 but continued until now. Lost a couple months rent and values have taken a hit with the emergency. Still good positive cash flow. Not interested in the money. All goes to education of my vecinos. I can't help but make money!!! It's wild. We also have 600,000 Venezolanos in Lima. Space is tight!!
Actually I benefited from all three. I built houses on speculation mostly. I would rent them to tourists and I would sell them only paying long term capital gains. No FICA. Which was the greatest tax I paid in life.
I built one or two houses a year. There were times when you could steal land and times when it was pricey. There were times when things went crazy....so I sold!!! Any fool can see prices don't go up forever. I once zinged a big time investor. I think it was 87? Six months after I sold the property the economy tanked....that felt good...housing...food.... transportation....only housing has not been dominated by big business. Whaduiknow!!!
I enjoyed this interview. I've watched it several times. I believe the most likely area where Ben Melkman is going to miss on his predictions is Long term rates over the coming several years. The Fed will do everything in their Power to keep them Anchored below 3% and they can succeed at this thru a operation twist or Y.C.C . The environment will become more palatable for the fed to do this as early as late 2021 if Stock fall into a severe correction (w rising yields) or in a year as GDP slows from 7% in 2021 (thanks to stimulus and reopening) to much more modest rates around 3.5 in 2022 and Beyond. AS the growth rates slow there will be more political capital to Alter long Rates and keep stock valuations elevated which will help keep pension solvent ...which is basically a national security issue
I think so too. The question is how high the FED will allow long-term interest rates to rise.
Super interview. Great insights. Lots of food for thought.
BEST clear mind I’ve heard for a little while!
So, was Melkman correct when he said _"...therefore your expected returns... in terms of equity market returns... are going to be _*_less"_* ? [17:25]
Haha he was so wrong!
Great interview with a great speaker. first Ive heard of Melkman, Ill have to keep up with him.
This guy is way smarter and knowledgable than me but what I see is a huge amount of cash on the sidelines and 5 year CD rates at under 1%. People will want to put their money somewhere. Real estate is complicated. Gold and bitcoin are, hmm, not for the bulk of one's portfolio imo. Stocks are easy, you just make a few clicks on your keyboard and boom, you own stocks with their resultant dividends. I have three friends with a healthy amount of cash who are just waiting for another crash or heavy correction and they're putting it right into the market.
I am a futures market day trader and you hit the nail on the head. My investors have invested 2.5x more money in 2020 than ever before. People with deep pockets need to make fast cash. No way better than clicking the mouse and being liquid by market close.
I LIKE THAT CALL
Fairly logical thinker. FX is how things play out when we are all at zero rates.
We're at the cusp of some major technological innovation in AI, automation, space tech, gene tech etc. and we have a rising China. Thats what will drive development in the next 10 years.
If I remember in 99 didn't they say similar about tech companies haha
I agree, lot of these variables are correct in how Ben delivers the narrative, but we're in a hybrid of 1960-1970s in terms of politics/fiscal spending, as he says, but we're closer to post civil war 1870-1890s in terms of business growth and economic development - the US is currently battling deflationary pressures
(confused with Japanese deflation vs innovation driven deflation) with hyper-inflationary measures, interest rates are backwards now vs 1960-1970s allowing excessive spending, it's almost like we're in a monetary civil war
@@robs2579 We're in the 1850's in politics, and maybe 1940's or 30's spending. I don''t expect meaninful growth of gdp in the future.
He is superb...crystal clear thoughts and best explanations of the current financial world...
The deficits spending filled in for private spending that went away as a result of the lock down. We don't need to maintain this program going forward because private spending will pick up. We have had plenty of short term deficit spending programs that helps during a recession. Now monetary stimulus has been a different story since 2008. Federal reserve wasn't able to reduce its balance sheet by a significant amount. As they attempted to reduce the balance sheet in 2018, we also saw a slow down in growth.
Wow, this man is smart. Re-watching in early 2022 and about to finalse position myself for what is ahead. Subscribed! Jan.
Central Banking reform is required. Fed must sponsor UBI to hit inflation targets. Then government can cut social spending and pay down debt and debt can be inflated away and P/E ratios justified. Banking sector will also benefit from normalized interest rates. In this environment you need hard assets like commodities and real estate. Emerging market bonds (high yielding) combined with Forex volatility will create fantastic carry trade opportunities.
Good ideas. I think maybe forcing livable wages would be a start before ubi tho.
It's guys like this that illuminate my ignorance.... damn him.
He must be Greek with this keen insight of economics.
Excellent content & execution, thank you
Wow surprised to learn so much from this interview!
Great interview
Very interesting views and analysis. A lot of new material for me but it all makes sense.
"if the authorities are actually successful in curing the problem that they see, that's actually what finally blows up the system to a certain extent"
Wow. This is July 2021 and I came back to that interview after almost a year. 5.4% latest CPI reading.
That warning is actually scary.
Best video on the economy ive seen so far.
We've been on a 100 year bull run in the equities market. I think it's unsustainable for the equities market to keep growing at the current rate. FAANG stocks can't keep growing at the same rate for the next decade or their market caps will be bigger than the US economy. It's unrealistic. Unless America's economy grew 10-15% a year, but we can't even get it to grow 3% even with a "business-man" in the White House. I think as dollar gets weaker, and equities see flat returns for the years to come, people will invest in other things or see their savings get devalued. It's going to go to undervalued assets, gold, silver, maybe even crypto. It will be a sad decade or more for America, thanks to our policy makers.
Melkman is genius. He describes financial and social movements and we can see where other commentators latch onto one element and push it. eg buy assets but in this well developed scenario you may not see a return as fast as ofher pundits say. The curve is uncertain future civil unrest (enhanced by future unfunded pension schemes etc, contingent liabilities) is certain. Opportunities will abound but we have to see how the future unravels economicly and timewise to know where to look. In short dont grab dreams, wait and see how the wind blows.
“times are great for macro, ...by the way, I’ m a macro investor” He can be righ ( I think he is) or he could be wrong. One think is certain, he’s selling his book.
He didn't say it, but I'm rather sure he's heavily long doughnuts
Dude
@@HiddenAgendas777 VERY FUNNY..... HE SHOULD LOOSE THE HOMELESS LOOK TOO. LOL
True. And probably is increasing his position by shorting stocks. Going long donuts and toilet paper.
He got a bit of return on investment...
Very interesting interview. How the government plans to handle the huge deficit has been answered: rates will be zero for decades. Makes sense. I'm not so sure about the PV effect on equities. I think companies will earn good profits in the future. The net present value of these profits has got to be positive.
Amazing interview! Good job
GREAT CONVO
There already is inflation (expansion of the money/credit supply). The moment they print they create inflation. The effects are also already visible. Stock market at record highs and the increasing dollar gold price.
@Roger Clemons that makes sense to me, but why do they bother doing it then? If the digitally created dollars are not circulated/have no velocity, what good are they? Do they actually help or stimulate anything?
@Roger Clemons I think you're right on. But the dam is filling and will eventually break.
Real estate too
Brilliant economic mind. On the money!
How can interest rates stay low in the US and Europe without some sort of financial repression? Are central banks simply the buyer of last resort or is the market going reassert itself?
There is inflation, we now talk trillions
GOLD - GOLD - GOLD -GOLD
Constraints-based framework. Start with the things that are certain. ZIRP. Extrapolate from there.
Capital flowing out to currencies (which Wall St doesn't trade for retirees via passive vehicles)
Capital flowing out from equities (as Ben mentioned -- due to "pulled forward" value and declining consumption going forward)
Capital flowing out of bonds (unless safe-haven, risk-off events)
Where do pension funds get their 7% hurdles in this environment?
(Add in a growing demographics of deflationary, cash-holding, low spending boomers)
This is very much the japanification of the US over the 2020's
the X factor...will a US president acknowledge this probable outcome and bring war to the doorstep as the out (ala Roosevelt)
Way to think differently Bloomberg...keep following Real Vision on the format, it'll work well with the younger demographics. :)
In those discussion I always wonder..if you talk about "people" realizing something..what part of people do you refer too?
Many people have no idea about Money and how it comes about.
Done by design....very very few understand what you talk about..
So how would you create a change...for the people by the people.
bitcoin
Yes, agreed. Most people dont have the resources to plan ahead indeed are currently burdened wifh debt and unemployed. All commentators are either wealthy enough to survive the time frame discussed or are spreading alarm and dispondency by describing a future beyond their audiences control.
@@pawkie2 thanks, there must be a middle way..something practical that the regular person can benefit from.
aged like fine wine in 2024. wow.
Ben is lit! He's been lifting the bag out of it on the rollover.
excellent interview. thanks!
Key points: volatility in FX; 60/40 portfolio may not work b/c bonds have low return and are exposed to inflation; stocks have high valuations; low interest rates will continue; covid caused structural permanent changes in economy; there’s an expanding debt profile preventing adjusting rates upward (this was a concern in 2009); 0 returns on equities; 0 interest rate; dollar 💵 is threatened; 1970s inflation could be coming.
My question; where’s the inflation actually going to come from? Inflation is a rise in general prices, so what prices will rise?
Peace Meditate 60 40 is part equities part fixed income and portfolios are designed to match the clients risk, not for you to put your risk tolerance on the investor
In the options, a move to gold would seem prudent. Gold has a dense electron gas cloud around the conduction zone where these electrons can be harvested through a multiple quantum nanoparticles, via, topological Hall effect or "Berry Phase" reaction. This involves a prototype closed system that amplifies a loop of a weak initial electron production, to a final plasma field. This is an oversimplification, because the intricacies of this is extremely complex, thus for someone without a background in the quantum sciences would quickly become lost.
@Roger Clemons I am a savant in the field of energy, and am 72 years old. I have worked in an analytical chemistry lab most of my life.
@@cerimite7674 Would you advise buying it in a mutual fund or coins ect?
@@denisehill1705 I have retired several years ago and have a retirement account. What is important for me now is to bring to fruition a quantum Hall topological devise that breaks symmetry and gold nanoparticles (
@Roger Clemons are you one of my nephews that wanders off and smokes some "weed" at our family reunions, just joking. I don't claim to know everything. My reason for existing, is to present a solution to finding for a new energy source. At 72 years old, my goal in life is to formulate a plan to that end. When I worked in classical chemistry, years ago, I solved complex problem, it was very exciting and fulfilling. I always knew I could solve these problems, not as a sence of arrogance, but just as a sence of absolute knowing. With savantism this just is the way of things.
@@denisehill1705 intuitively I think you absolutely correct on everything you have stated about the financial aspects of gold. My advise to you is to fine a quiet place, clear your mind of all thoughts, and ask the questions, then listen for the answer. I have found that meditation always gives solutions, but not answer that you would always expect, but what ones you can depend on.
"Let me rephrase the question"😂
Seems like Bitcoin fits the bill as opportunities in FX.
@Roger Clemons - Oh look, a low IQ pleb who thinks he sounds smart. Meanwhile Bitcoin has 10 years of history and more than $200 billion of value! But of course the arrogant low IQ pleb is right, ignore the facts!
@Roger Clemons - You’re the one who started this with your unintelligent jab.
Our country has too much turmoil to begin with. Agree to disagree and spread love
Good stuff, but he is wrong on equities. Equities will go up with inflation, so will real estate. Business have the power to raise their prices, and they will. Along with wages and when they get too high, prices go up more. That is run away inflation, but if it doesn't run away, 3% or 4% inflation is not going to do anything but make real estate prices high and inflate stock prices along with it. Own both.
Oh shit, this guy gets dumber as the video goes on.
What alternate universe are you from? Who would raise wages and prices in a recession/depression?
@@melvinthedeathless.melvint6727 Raising wages with inflation. If inflation runs away, then we get recession. Seems like Fed thinks they can control inflation above 2%
Negative interest rates in EU had a big impact on strengthening the US market.
Didn’t hear any market that he thought would do well?
That’s how these people are all everything will collapse and nothing will do well.
@@futureprogrammer880 while they go behind and buy the dips and sell the rise. The best investors turn off all the noise and talking heads.
Gold
Gold, silver, emerging markes, bitcoin. it was implicit. short the dollar assets.
@@jorgegomez524 Foreign stock for me, I've been at it years now. Bitcoin isn't something I'd call an investment tho.
Its fun to listen to this guy.
Brilliant. Thank you.
The US a little bit more European? Let us hope they do not start wearing speedos!
Low interest rates for WHO??? Give me 1% money and I'll own this town.
I wish he wouldn’t use all the jargon. If I had a business degree I would be able to understand him, but then I wouldn’t need him
Hes talking about Forex trading. Hes saying the bond and stock market wont give returns people or need anymore. Hes saying people should learn the FX market.
@@ross4452 so gamble basically lol
@@ross4452 thank you. That's the key that just unlocked the subtext of this video for me.
Wow, I agree with much of what is being said.
With low rates you want to be in real estate all day
wow taking advice from human Sloth... good luck with your future investments...
@Roger Clemons visual cues speak marvels for future of market
@Roger Clemons how come all these big boys crunching numbers havn't figured out the Covid19 can only be cured by even more insane Bailouts.... doesnt matter if BillGates hired all the outta work Cigarette manufacturer's old doctors to vouch for him
Inflation is already here big time. I'm in Canada (where we expect to be price gouged and raped, food price wise) but mom is in LA and we both noticed it. We're not Economists; just 160 years of life experience. We remember inflation, and the last time that occurred almost all financial commentators weren't even BORN.
any allocator that asks a hf to create a bond like return stream is way too naiive.
Those chairs look really uncomfortable.
Melkman sounds like "Dan Halen" from Squidbillies.
Yeh , he is right on the money. A real help is a universal income for the next 10 to 20 years till some recovery is achieved. The markers of recovery will include the ability of the feds to recover some of the loan/debt that was initiated during the crisis
Your worst nightmare is stagnation
We do not need a universal income - except for the truly disabled. We need universal fallback jobs. This society simply cannot afford to carry 50% of the population for free.
Like a federal jobs guarantee program??
I would suggest to everyone with good equity to buy an island.
"avec" an old stone fort and some old cannon.
You guys get commercials in the video outside the video goodness take it easy I am sure you guys ain’t that tight for cash
Very interesting stuff.
Slavoj zizek of the finance game...
As a rich man I can see that hes nervous a left government redistributing wealth but it's not going to happen. The FED is baking in so much pain and the plebes barely understand what's going on. A recession followed by a return to the status quo (printing( is almost guaranteed in the next few years. This leaves the rich, richer and ordinary Americans that much broker
Interesting talk🙂
Thank You.
what kind of accent is that? he looks like the guy i used to buy weed from when i was in U.S.
liyexiang66 Australian
Aussie who's been in the US for a long time?
@@tongchen1226 he is a undercover Australian weed tycoon who pretend to be a macro fund manager
He’s moved over to cocaine
He's from Australia.... lol Does look like a weed dealer though
Lets spend. Billionaires are not paying taxes and are immune to inflation. This spells disaster. Trump has been the worse thing that could possibly happen to the US economy. He just described inflation in equities real estate
But let's spend wisely and get something back from the people we support. Otherwise we turn a large portion of the population into social parasites. This would not be their fault. They need jobs, not handouts. That takes something in very short supply - leadership.
I agree with you, even large companies need help, my concern is that billionaires are allocating capital who knows where. They move globally, while saying globalism is bad. Trump is a NATIONALISTS YET HE has used several shady endeavors the make money in Scotland. RUclips has several international currency traders that broadcast from different hotels in tax havens. Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong. I think of them as tax dodging nomads.
We are entering a time of new markets and new opportunities. There are going to be a lot of all players who cannot adapt to the new world and are going to be left behind. Warren Buffett is probably exhibit a.
wow guy called it
lol this guy uses excessive jargon for basically spouting BS. what hes trying to do is predict the future which im sorry to say, no matter how much technical jargon you try to use, nor technical models you try to use, you wont be able to do.
hes basically saying he does not know. the future is uncertain thank you captain obvious.
not what I took away from it at all. He's advising people to learn Forex if they haven't
Hold on to your *LugNUTS* its TIIIMMMMEEE for an Overhauuuuuul!!!
That's just sad. The end of an empire.
If the united states does not lead the world, who leads?
@Roger Clemons IT SHOULD BE A PRIORITY FOR BIDEN TO TRY AND CONVICT TRUMP OF TREASON...... TO SHUT THE LOW IQ PEOPLE UP FOR GOOD. IF CONVICTED FOR TREASON THEY HAVE TO BE QUIET.... ENOUGH STUPIDITY ALREADY. i ENJOYED READING YOUR COMMENTS THANKS.
@@energyparticle China
@@energyparticle me. For 3 years then ill retire.
He called the election back in April
The US stock markets have had the benefit of not having any substitutes that can rival their returns for the past years. In purely return based comparison, they stood out in very obvious ways. This money that they received in the capital markets has fueled the development and growth of American industries. If you look at the BOP of the USA or any nation as a matter of fact, you will find that the flow of international wealth in capital exchange is the largest by a significant proportion. With the introduction of risk into the investment markets and the increasing money supply, there is substantial risk that unforeseen elements of the USA economy that lay dormant will reveal newly found weaknesses. This pandemic has the potential to expose the US economy.
There is inflation for the poor, but Billionaires are immune!
As the Africans say: “If the elephants fight, the grass suffers, if elephants make peace, the grass suffers”
0% for 20 years ? Shut up, the stupid stuff young people say. Print forever and it don't matter
All this could have been prevented. All of it! Thanks Trump!
The guys fund light sky macro only made money last year after four yrs - index funds are up more than this guy - why listen...unless it’s stuff that confirms your biases?
Peace Meditate- I couldn’t afford the ones with track records tepper druckenmiller oak tree etc the rest of these are useless a monkey could beat them - but ppl listen to their opinions 🤔
beautifull
Genius!! :)
@Roger Clemons u looking for predictions? He is giving a thesis on how things might pan out.....he is kind of brilliant like Julien Brigden and lyn Alden
unfortunately i think orange man will win, unfortunately
Glory Days
What a bunch of crap. Tulip Bulbs would make a lot of sense compared to what he is describing.
Ummm... 🤔 owe, Whoa¡ or, Woe... I don't know which. None of those are good.
Looks as if it's time to learn to profit from pain.
I thought it was no neck ed 😳
6 feet buddy!!
German central world trade bank
Sounds like financial Armageddon with no where to hide but with putting money with guys like him. Hmm..
Very poor way to explain. Is he understanding himself what he's saying? I like how the interviewer is pretending to understand. Clearly interviewer also not getting most of it. Admit honestly.
A really educative video, it's important that we get the basic knowledge of the market before engaging. I myself have managed to remain profitable these past few months of global pandemic with the courtesy of CONS. BEN FOSTER a professional who assist me with my trades in Stocks & Forex.
He's a bitcoiner
Yup. I bet he owns some gold too. Makes me think that Gold and Bitcoin will have a longer bull run this time. Ten years perhaps?
@@mfer134 depends what one considers a bull run, but yes the cycles will get longer.
Easier to keep your illicit money, illicit.
@@user-pb9ey2rh1f 2-3 year cycles. We're in the beginning of the next bull run. 200k incoming.
Z , Who trust it , One dya there will be some teenager, or Russian that has hacked Bitcoin and it is worthless.