this is my first episode ever, and yes i watched it up to @2:51 I was inspired by Ren Tech.....this is the best day of my life, because i know my purpose
I know this is a year old, but how do you NOT over-fit when creating a new Trading Strategy, the way Rob describes, by doing research? Is it expected that a person develops their own pattern from scratch for them to be profitable? Does his book go into more detail about the methodology of creating a strategy that isn't over-fit in this manner?
I think the best way it to use relatively simple rules and test it on different markets and time frames so you do end up over fitting....We have talked about this on a few episodes...perhaps you can find it by going back to listen...check out the Minute Markets in the Show notes...
One simple way to start out on the right foot is to use a portfolio based approach to testing. It's more difficult to curve fit a system against the S&P 500 or S&P 1500 for example. A good program like AmiBroker that's built for portfolio backtesting is a must. Also, keep your rules to less than 10 ideally and do robustness (sensitivity tests) on your parameters. For example, when you optimize some of your parameters they should work between a range of values and not be random. Also, test your system rules against completely different markets altogether. Just using a portfolio of stocks to test against will help a ton. Hope that helps!
One simple way to start out on the right foot is to use a portfolio based approach to testing. It's more difficult to curve fit a system against the S&P 500 or S&P 1500 for example. A good program like AmiBroker that's built for portfolio backtesting is a must. Also, keep your rules to less than 10 ideally and do robustness (sensitivity tests) on your parameters. For example, when you optimize some of your parameters they should work between a range of values and not be random. Also, test your system rules against completely different markets altogether. Just using a portfolio of stocks to test against will help a ton. Hope that helps!
After decades of writing code for testing and trading systematically, some of which was incredibly good, I actually don't believe in it. Good trading is an art and a product of broad experience, in other words it is a human endeavor, not a "computerized" one. Systematic trading is no match for really good broadly informed discretionary trading.
Your words gave me hope as I am discretion based and learning to incorporate coding to help me analyse the data better. Thank you ❤ rest time will tell. It's a worthy endeavour for me as the effort pulls my entire body and soul to commit.
@@Quantdummy Best of luck with your investments and trading. I have realized tremendous financial success resulting from many years of studies and application in trading. I would encourage you to continue to read widely about every aspect of stock market analysis, and other markets too, such as forex and commodities. I am a strong believer in technical analysis of financial charts. Diversify and keep yourself in the game by not risking too much on any given trade. With discipline and hard work you can produce real wealth!
Anyone with an actual trading system will not give it away. You have to put in the work and make your own. If they give away or sell it, you should already know it’s bad.
![[Blueprint] Create a Simple Trend Following System · Nick Radge](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EUUd2kq1Mh4/mqdefault.jpg)
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
this is my first episode ever, and yes i watched it up to @2:51 I was inspired by Ren Tech.....this is the best day of my life, because i know my purpose
Insane video guys wow! Loved it! So glad that I find your channel.
excellent content with good discussion of real world challenges to develop and stick with a systematic trading system
Gold content! Thank you.
How do you do these pencil sketches of the guests? What software do you use!
you can probably use chatGPT. Pretty simple to ask it to output this image.
Is there any audiobook available? For the book
don't think so
I know this is a year old, but how do you NOT over-fit when creating a new Trading Strategy, the way Rob describes, by doing research? Is it expected that a person develops their own pattern from scratch for them to be profitable? Does his book go into more detail about the methodology of creating a strategy that isn't over-fit in this manner?
I think the best way it to use relatively simple rules and test it on different markets and time frames so you do end up over fitting....We have talked about this on a few episodes...perhaps you can find it by going back to listen...check out the Minute Markets in the Show notes...
One simple way to start out on the right foot is to use a portfolio based approach to testing. It's more difficult to curve fit a system against the S&P 500 or S&P 1500 for example. A good program like AmiBroker that's built for portfolio backtesting is a must. Also, keep your rules to less than 10 ideally and do robustness (sensitivity tests) on your parameters. For example, when you optimize some of your parameters they should work between a range of values and not be random. Also, test your system rules against completely different markets altogether. Just using a portfolio of stocks to test against will help a ton. Hope that helps!
One simple way to start out on the right foot is to use a portfolio based approach to testing. It's more difficult to curve fit a system against the S&P 500 or S&P 1500 for example. A good program like AmiBroker that's built for portfolio backtesting is a must. Also, keep your rules to less than 10 ideally and do robustness (sensitivity tests) on your parameters. For example, when you optimize some of your parameters they should work between a range of values and not be random. Also, test your system rules against completely different markets altogether. Just using a portfolio of stocks to test against will help a ton. Hope that helps!
1) use few rules and few parameters 2) backtest on at least 100 trades 3 ) out-of-sample test 4) forward test live with paper money
Keep doing what your doing!
After decades of writing code for testing and trading systematically, some of which was incredibly good, I actually don't believe in it. Good trading is an art and a product of broad experience, in other words it is a human endeavor, not a "computerized" one. Systematic trading is no match for really good broadly informed discretionary trading.
I agree with you. I have been trading for 25 years. Those who can’t teach. Those who can do. 🙂
Tell that to Renaissance XD
25 with success?
Your words gave me hope as I am discretion based and learning to incorporate coding to help me analyse the data better. Thank you ❤ rest time will tell. It's a worthy endeavour for me as the effort pulls my entire body and soul to commit.
@@Quantdummy Best of luck with your investments and trading. I have realized tremendous financial success resulting from many years of studies and application in trading. I would encourage you to continue to read widely about every aspect of stock market analysis, and other markets too, such as forex and commodities. I am a strong believer in technical analysis of financial charts. Diversify and keep yourself in the game by not risking too much on any given trade. With discipline and hard work you can produce real wealth!
Dud would be clutching his text books in a frozen panic while a seasoned momo trader is smoking him
Is it chapGPT giving answers or is it "systematic tone" answers? 😂
So what is the trading method ? What is your trading system ?🤨
Anyone with an actual trading system will not give it away. You have to put in the work and make your own. If they give away or sell it, you should already know it’s bad.
GobbledeGook