We Are Going Into A Recession, Predictions And What To Do Now (Growing Recession Risk for 2025)

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  • Опубликовано: 3 дек 2024

Комментарии • 211

  • @Vikturneer
    @Vikturneer 18 часов назад +47

    43 here and kudos for creating this. With a good investment plan that ensures steady income without any doubts I and my wife are prepared for a well organized retirement. I started investing a year ago and so far, I’ve watched my networth grow exponentially after my first $100k. I've learned that getting a good return is very much attainable only if you know your way around it.

    • @Halllaand
      @Halllaand 14 часов назад +1

      You say it like it's easy forgetting that not everyone is as lucky as you are. I've invested for months now without any progress. How are you able to do it?

    • @Vikturneer
      @Vikturneer 14 часов назад +1

      It's totally far from luck. Sir Jonas Herman, a CFA has consistently outperformed the market ever since I got on his program. He has continued to put my $35k to good use with market driven strategies making me an optimal return of over $217k

    • @Fleneroy77
      @Fleneroy77 13 часов назад +1

      That's your view. In my experience, there is no such formula, it is nearly impossible to achieve success with investing. It’s all just gambling.

    • @Rmorales799
      @Rmorales799 13 часов назад +1

      I'm just starting out and everything looks complicated. I don't mind using help How can I get acquainted with his service?

    • @Vikturneer
      @Vikturneer 12 часов назад +1

      Hermanw jonas that’s his gmail okay

  • @CyanTeamProductions
    @CyanTeamProductions День назад +151

    Sad how the 24/7 panic channels have like 100k subs and are always wrong. Your channel seems to be accurate, relaxed, and informative. Please never sell out

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +47

      I am not overly emotional and I use data to guide my decisions so I plan on keeping it this way.

    • @GordonFreeman307
      @GordonFreeman307 День назад +8

      The entire title is about panic and recession lol what?

    • @themousery
      @themousery День назад +2

      @@GordonFreeman307 It’s not panic; it’s a data-based prediction about the future of the economy

    • @GordonFreeman307
      @GordonFreeman307 День назад +3

      @@themousery I have seen so called “ data based predictions” about the downfall of the economy for the last 4 years. If I listened to these stupid predictions I wouldn’t own my home that’s worth double since I bought it 2 years ago.

    • @michaelmalter2236
      @michaelmalter2236 День назад +1

      I did sell just before the carry trade thing. I mean, ok, in terms of opportunity cost, I probably lost some money. But still, it is not that bad. Selling too soon does not hurt that much. I have more safe-haven assets and I am reentering the market very slowly with "bearish stocks". I hate real estates but prices are falling in my country so I am keeping an eye on that.
      Better safe than sorry. I am not in my 20s anymore…

  • @edward6066
    @edward6066 2 часа назад +1

    New subscriber here. Thank you for what you do and keep it up!

  • @vladimirofsvalbard9477
    @vladimirofsvalbard9477 23 часа назад +6

    Rates cuts after long term high interest has almost always led to a recession.
    The reason is because lowering interest rates gives incentive for investors to remove money from the stock market to reinvest in physical commodities like real-estate.
    Get ready for inflation round 2 in 2026/2027

  • @joltedjon
    @joltedjon День назад +47

    I've been struggling to find a job since graduating uni in May. This is gonna be even better

    • @idontfeellikeit
      @idontfeellikeit День назад +13

      Lol I graduated in December right before the pandemic. Didn't land one til 2022. Don't stop til you find something, even if it's not exactly what you want. Good luck

    • @dev4statingx90
      @dev4statingx90 День назад +12

      First time? Laughs in 2008 grad

    • @bhatsanket
      @bhatsanket День назад +1

      Depends what u graduated in.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +10

      I graduated during the great recession and remember filling out over 200 job applications and had to keep going until finding a permeant full time position. Contact your school for help finding employment as they want you to have a job because it looks good for there metrics. They may also help with Coops and internships if you do not have experience. Having experience in the industry was the key to getting a job when competing with all the people that were recently laid off with 10+ years of experience. I started my own business to make money and pay my bills and a lot of part time work. Also consider going for a master's in STEM fields if you still cannot find work in your field.

    • @joltedjon
      @joltedjon День назад

      @@bhatsanket computer science

  • @kwerby3285
    @kwerby3285 День назад +17

    There have been people pointing at an incoming recession for a while now.
    At this point the markets have broken away from the fundamentals so I don’t think we can use the fundamentals to predict the market.

    • @GTRrocker84
      @GTRrocker84 День назад +4

      That’s even more scary

    • @milesbennet4572
      @milesbennet4572 День назад

      The fundamentals are always there, it means the market is even more over inflated than you think. It's going to explode like a nuclear bomb.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +11

      Yes, it is hard to call a recession to an exact date. Note that I have not called for a recession until the second half of 2024 and the time prior to that was in late 2019 due to similar issues. The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing). The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later.

    • @Robert-fx3ng
      @Robert-fx3ng 18 часов назад +1

      I’d call a 26% market drop and 20% unemployment in 2020 a recession. The Federal government called it one. We average a recession every 6.5 years so 2025 is a bit early but reasonable to consider.

    • @kwerby3285
      @kwerby3285 18 часов назад

      @@Robert-fx3ngmy only issue with that is it was directly caused by covid. It accelerated a lot of things in terms of whenever this next coming recession is but what shape it will take is unknown

  • @doxbin
    @doxbin День назад +23

    This is why I am subscribed! Straight to the point and very valuable info as always.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +3

      Thank you for the kind words and helping the algorithm with a comment!

  • @MaritimeSunset
    @MaritimeSunset 12 часов назад +1

    I absolutely love your channel dude. Your style is refreshing. Subbed.

  • @RD-io6sm
    @RD-io6sm День назад +10

    The most important takeaway is not to panic.
    Focus on what you can do and try not to stress the rest. If you stress the rest, you might be getting in the way of yourself. Then, you may struggle to control the things you can.
    Hold a job even if it's not ideal. No employment is perfect. As long as your safety isn't at unreasonable risk and you're paid on time every time.
    Panicking is messy and doesn't really achieve anything. That being said, it's not bad to feel it. It's how you digest it that makes the difference.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +9

      Agreed, staying calm has served me well over my life and helps to see things clearly before making any major decision.

    • @themousery
      @themousery День назад +2

      Focus on what you can control, and take action on it from a calm and optimistic mindset. Stay informed about the things you can’t control, but don’t them impact your health. Best wishes to everyone

  • @JesusLeee-i9r
    @JesusLeee-i9r 36 минут назад +3

    You cannot cut your way out of recession you've got to invest your way out of recession, the Conservative party are in the dark ages on policy they've got to think again. My primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about £170k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.

    • @winifred-k9e
      @winifred-k9e 34 минуты назад +1

      A strategy to protect against inflation is through the U.S stock market, especially the S&P500 & various ETFs. Investors must know where to put their money and how to distribute it in order to protect it against inflation while still making a profit, especially during a recession.

    • @DerraKormino
      @DerraKormino 31 минуту назад

      The truth is that people are finally waking up to the fact that our systems are breaking down in thousands of different ways all around us. Personally, the financial market seems like the only way to go with my long-term horizon (accumulated about £557,000 in earnings since May 2021), but if you don't have that time luck, it's a tough market out there down almost nowhere feels safe!

    • @JacobsErick-u8r
      @JacobsErick-u8r 31 минуту назад +1

      How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?

    • @DerraKormino
      @DerraKormino 30 минут назад

      Yes, a Fidelity financial advisor named Melissa Terri Swayne" put an end to my fears about investing, and after making more investments, I was able to reach the high six-figure mark in less than 3 years. A licensing advisor satisfies the necessary security criteria; hence, reimbursement is guaranteed if I'm dissatisfied with the service, so I'm much better off hiring one.

    • @LUCIASMITH-d1z
      @LUCIASMITH-d1z 30 минут назад +1

      This is useful information; I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.

  • @AskUser-i3f
    @AskUser-i3f День назад +17

    Very straight forward and informative video. This is what I come back for every time you upload. Keep up the great work. Question: How does consumer debt affect what was discussed in the video.. more people I know are having a harder and harder time making ends meet, yet Black Friday did not stop ANYONE from shopping. How much of a role do mortgages, auto/student loans, and credit cards have in the general macroeconomy?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      I covered the consumer debt and banking issue in the early November update here: ruclips.net/video/ruN50XuKS34/видео.html All consumer debt is increasing in delinquency except school loans. People that have mortgages are highly qualified and have built a lot of equity so even if some people could not pay they could still sell and walk away with money. People are using buy now pay later which can bite them over time. People will borrow until they max out cards or miss payments and become delinquent. I saw many people not handing out candy at Halloween this year due to high costs as one example of people cutting back which I have not seen for many years.

  • @mp22422
    @mp22422 День назад +13

    As 26 year old I must say man I love this channel and the value it provides

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +4

      Thank you, that is my goal. I wish someone told me about how to invest and what information I give here when I was in my 20's. I still built over a million net worth in my 30's but I learned from a lot of small mistakes but I could have saved myself from learning first hand.

    • @mp22422
      @mp22422 День назад +1

      @ thank you! I’m 29% away from reaching my first $100,000. As a back woman I’m ahead but striving for more. Something you mentioned in the video is working on improving skills. Currently working on that, studying for the PMP exam. Thank you for all your valuable information!

  • @flobba123
    @flobba123 День назад +11

    Dont have to worry about losing job, Since i never had one

  • @dishcleaner2
    @dishcleaner2 9 часов назад +1

    2019 it was easy to get an internship and first job in IT with about 100 applications. 2023 was very difficult to find my next role with over 500 applications. I’m seeing what’s out there just in case. I sent out 60 applications and have yet to get 1 interview even though my resume is much stronger. In other words, it’s even harder to get an interview.

  • @GTRrocker84
    @GTRrocker84 День назад +7

    Great channel. Chill vibes and lots of info

  • @Watcher-ts3ql
    @Watcher-ts3ql 18 часов назад +2

    Thanks for the heads up. I saw you called it for some times during the second half of this year. I am expecting one too. A little advice definitely helps.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  17 часов назад +2

      I still think it will start by mid 2025, unless the data changes.

    • @Watcher-ts3ql
      @Watcher-ts3ql 11 часов назад

      @@financial_freedom101 I would be very glad if you would make a video about the application of Gold during challenging times like these! I hope you read this.

  • @Circumnavigate
    @Circumnavigate День назад +2

    Excellent and well presented overview, much appreciated

  • @bvp-zi2yg
    @bvp-zi2yg 19 часов назад +2

    Excellent content! Thank you!

  • @Hoopr32
    @Hoopr32 День назад +21

    I think it’s going to be really bad. The BS gig jobs propping up unemployment are going to fade away when it starts and I think the rate will be much higher than 8%.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +6

      I expect ~90% of people to stay employed and a downturn in jobs for ~6-11 months as is typical in recessions and the stock market may see a dip which typically recovers over a few years and is followed by a bull market which is why I just keep dollar cost averaging as I will not use the money for 10+years.
      Prior performance does not guarantee future performance. All investments carry risk and can lose value.

    • @Hoopr32
      @Hoopr32 День назад

      @@financial_freedom101 Love the info, brother. You make great, informative content.

  • @byorce
    @byorce День назад +3

    The Fed hates that word do you think they’ll fudge numbers or keep lowering interest rates to avoid recession?

  • @ScootLogix
    @ScootLogix 23 часа назад +2

    Awesome report. Thank you for being honest and keeping it simple.

  • @15walkingaway
    @15walkingaway День назад +2

    I stumbled across this in my feed. Good stuff!

  • @benjaming.2218
    @benjaming.2218 21 час назад +2

    6 months of negative GDP…doesn’t look like we are headed that way. Also, keep in mind the Sahm rule was triggered off of historically low unemployment, which caused that MA to dip unusually low. Time will tell..also, don’t forget the FEDS use of QE…very powerful tool to get the economy going.

  • @yellowyunicorn
    @yellowyunicorn День назад +13

    Also can confirm that the job market in the tech sector is pretty rough. I threw out some feelers to my friends to give them referrals for my jobs and I genuinely only expected one or two but it was over 15 peoples ranging from various work experiences reaching out to me for a referral.
    Can also confirm a lot of my developer friends are going through layouts within their companies especially saas companies it seems cutting cost now.

    • @angelozilian7359
      @angelozilian7359 День назад +2

      Yeah, same problems for devs here in Europe

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +3

      The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing). The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later. 2020 and 2022 did have quarters of negative GDP. It is hard to call a recession to an exact date. Note that I have not called for a recession until the second half of 2024 and the time prior to that was in late 2019 due to similar issues.

    • @Altmer353
      @Altmer353 17 часов назад +1

      Problem with tech market is that those companies actually do not need to so many programmers. Big companies over-hired to pump up that stock price. Worst thing with all of this is that for some reason big tech companies dont care who they fire, aside from selected few. You can be a good programmer and still get randomly put into cutting cost basket. While your not so productive coworker gets lucky and stays employed. Smaller companies, where leadership actually understands importance of good IT specialist, will most likely hold on to them.

  • @squegg
    @squegg Час назад

    Following for a few months now - I've seen channels like yours blow up time and time again. Appreciate your insights and expertise.
    Would love for you to do a video on particular stocks / more technical analysis if you ever were interested.
    Cheers.

  • @ransonhall4834
    @ransonhall4834 21 час назад +2

    Solid video, nice work.

  • @sputnikgagarin6966
    @sputnikgagarin6966 День назад +2

    Thanks for your advice!

  • @lastfirst23163
    @lastfirst23163 23 часа назад +1

    Just jumped ship on a job after it was forecasted that we may need layoffs. Feeling confident in weathering the storm and have 60k emergency fund

  • @Jallal70
    @Jallal70 10 часов назад

    I appreciate how genuine your advice is. Thanks

  • @Carlos-bp1vp
    @Carlos-bp1vp День назад +4

    Thank you Tom Hardy 🙏

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      Now I see it, never realized we have similar looks especially wearing similar glasses.

    • @Feedback406
      @Feedback406 День назад

      😂😂

  • @bibaboto
    @bibaboto День назад +2

    You are one of my fav youtubers out there. calm + to the point

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +3

      Thank you for the kind words. I am so calm I used to talk my mom to sleep growing up.

  • @ccstarz19
    @ccstarz19 День назад +1

    nice video. thanks

  • @Circumnavigate
    @Circumnavigate День назад +1

    How will you know when to buy the puts? Will you let us know when you decide to?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  20 часов назад +2

      When I buy puts I will disclose it. I am leaning towards buying in late Dec or early Jan for around 1 year.

  • @kurokodivinchi4118
    @kurokodivinchi4118 День назад +3

    1st comment. This is a channel where I learn. Thank you!

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      Congratulation on being 1st. Thank you for the comment and I will continue to make economic data easy to understand.

  • @progamerblake
    @progamerblake День назад +1

    With a recession looming, do you think it'd be wise to buy some puts in the energy sector? Specifically I was looking at XLE, which seems to be topping out right now looking at previous recessions. I was thinking maybe June/July exp puts.

  • @BigErectCompany
    @BigErectCompany День назад +2

    High quality content like always.

  • @19cornholio90
    @19cornholio90 День назад +2

    You seem like a nice guy. Thanks for making this vid.

  • @hudooguru2
    @hudooguru2 День назад +1

    Excellent content. Subscribed.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      Welcome aboard! Thank you for watching and I will keep delivering economic updates as they become available. I also have practical information on starting businesses and investing.

  • @mic03311
    @mic03311 День назад +1

    Thank you for this information. Could you confirm how GDP is reported? Isn't it a KPI that typically comes with a delay? I also understand that this KPI can be subject to revisions. Given this, wouldn't it imply that we are already in a recession?

    • @downrangedave3845
      @downrangedave3845 День назад +1

      bingo!

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      Yes, all data is several months delayed and will be revised by the government several months after initial reports.

  • @wsurfn
    @wsurfn День назад +3

    These videos are so good

  • @MasterDoesMincraft
    @MasterDoesMincraft День назад +1

    Love the content! My dad and I enjoy watching your videos and talking about them together to better secure our family's financial future. Have to ask because I am curious, what did you blank out on the right hand side of the white board?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +2

      I had an error that I corrected before posting as the GDP was already in real terms with inflation subtracted out. While I was reviewing the data I noticed the error and corrected it prior to publishing the video and then added "Real" GDP for the heading to ensure accuracy. These take several hours of data collection, data analysis, filming, editing, processing, uploading, SEO, etc. so it was faster to blank it out rather then refilm and spend another 4 hours at midnight.

  • @WoodwardIntelligence
    @WoodwardIntelligence День назад +1

    Interesting. I trained a machine learning model on economic indicators from 1970 to 2024 (not on my channel), and my model predicts a time of economic relief in the next year. I guess we'll see what happens.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  18 часов назад +2

      As the economy is not the stock market are you saying a boom in manufacturing and jobs or a boom in stocks? I see continuing potential increases in stocks with inflation reigniting and pumping up asset prices while wage gains/jobs/manufacturing may not be as strong.

    • @WoodwardIntelligence
      @WoodwardIntelligence 4 часа назад

      @@financial_freedom101 I highly doubt we are going to be seeing any wage increases. The model I developed lined up different economic periods with different presidential administrations (and that was not part of its training). What I believe will happen is going to be more of a change in market sentiment as energy prices come down. More positive market sentiment will ultimately create a trend of more economic activity. As long as interest rates stay under control and Powell doesn't make the same mistakes again, we shouldn't see inflation increase rapidly. It will be similar to 2018-2019. Fortunately, the leadership we are going to have this time around are going to be stronger people who hopefully can contain their emotions. Also, I'm not sure what you mean with the stock market thing. The stock market in America is just a casino for financially illiterate people. Most of the stocks people think are going up are 10 and 20 times overpriced because they are part of a major index that people just buy regularly and the ETF's that track those indices are required to buy them as well. The stock market is no indicator of our economy at all.

  • @qq7793
    @qq7793 День назад +3

    Thanks as always

  • @itsme7026
    @itsme7026 День назад

    Thank you. Can you recommend me some books to learn about finance with no background in it. Thanks a lot 🙏🙏

  • @K_NERVe
    @K_NERVe День назад +2

    Gr8 job m8

  • @marcussurleyadventures1928
    @marcussurleyadventures1928 7 часов назад

    Yeah well, recessions are great for making money. But you’re right amass a huge cash supply so you can buy everything cheap.

  • @hyaku_my_shiki
    @hyaku_my_shiki День назад +1

    Excellent video, appreciate the explanation of the Sahm rule, never seen that before and makes a lot of sense

  • @kobanebook9888
    @kobanebook9888 День назад +2

    Awesome, just when i got a feeling to get back in to the market we get this, ill be entering in at the dip 🤑

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +3

      I do not try to time the market I just dollar cost average and it has worked out well for me over the last 15 years and hit over a million dollar net worth last year. Consistent investing was the key. Fear keeps people out of investing for too long and tend to miss some of the best days.

    • @kobanebook9888
      @kobanebook9888 День назад

      @ im not timing the dip, im not a professional, im looking at my watchlist for a 10-20% discount for example theres one stock thats like $130 if it dips to $110 or even $100 im slurping that up with haste!
      Thanks for your reply, friend

    • @daveaustin02
      @daveaustin02 День назад

      @@kobanebook9888as tom hougaard says, the stock market is not a supermarket, stop looking for discounts lol

  • @Votom3
    @Votom3 День назад +1

    What institutions did you find that are offering 5% on short term CDs? I just did a review with my financial advisor back when the yield curve uninverted a couple months back, and we had a hard time finding anything above 4% but nothing at 5% (most were 3-4). Even high yield saving at AMEX are down to 4+% APY now.
    (Also, love your channel. I thought my MBA and finance courses + reading Peter Lynch and listening to Warren Buffett were the ultimate guides to understanding the markets, but your analysis is no BS, cool headed, and simple. Been subscribed since I found you, thank you sir.)

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +2

      Thank you for the kind words. I have used Bankrate and Nerdwallet to find higher rates across hundreds of banks. I had 11 to 12 month CDs at 5% and 5.1% through Capital One which mature early in 2025 as I wanted to protect the higher rates once I saw the FED would likely start reducing rates and I would have access if the stock market dropped significantly generally several months after the rate cuts stop. Currently they have a 12 month CD at 4%. Act soon if you want CDs as they will likely go lower after Dec 18th (next FED meeting).

  • @jq2748
    @jq2748 День назад +1

    when do you think the recession will begin next year? also, when do you expect that the fed will start tapering in 2025?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      It is hard to call a recession to an exact date. The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing). The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 20 часов назад

      And if i may add... the debts are stupid high. Usually during a downturn (recession) the way out is QE of some sort (RATE cuts, bail outs, bail ins, money printing etc) the problem this go around is that the FED cut twice and the yields (cost of money) went up not down. This is not supposed to happen. But folks think the FED controls things when in fact they just follow the 2 year yield but on a lag, which is why they are always late. The more they try to do QE the more the yields climb. The bond market is not going to let the US Govt drive the dollars purchasing power to zero without a fight. If we look at what happened during the great inflation of 1968-1982 yeild when way up...the 10 year was over 12%. I think that happens again. Anything over 5% the stock market and all other markets are going to crash. And when I mean all I mean all. The only market I think that might do well will be commodities. Not gold, not crypto all of that gets cut in half too. We are getting super close to an event. Just be careful. We will know by the latest middle of next year but IMHO I think we see bad things setting in 1st quarter of 2025. If you are long.... I would recommend to use stop loss orders to protect yourself from a nasty downturn. Once we start down... the rips higher and short events. Not what folks have been spoiled with which has been buy the dips for the last 15 years. The new saying will be "short the rips" that is if you know how to properly and safely do it. If you don't just sit it out and stack cash so you can buy things up when the market gets cut in half.

  • @coolpfpbut9505
    @coolpfpbut9505 23 часа назад +1

    If you knew nothing, what's a skill or two you think would be worth investing time/money in?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  20 часов назад +1

      Think of all the problems of your neighbors and offer potential solutions in the form of a business. It depends on what you enjoy doing. If you like to work with your hands vehicle repairs or home repairs. I would go back and learn HVAC install/repairs as every home has them and the work is necessary, cannot be outsourced overseas and certifies you in HVAC/plumbing/and electrical. If you enjoy working outside start cutting grass and landscaping if you want to start a business there.

  • @philswift5340
    @philswift5340 День назад +11

    Can confirm about the job market. I’ve been looking for 9 months now

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +2

      Sorry that it has been a hard time for you to find something. I was laid off in 2009 and took up a bunch of part time work and loans until I was able to find full time work in 2010. It was not a fun time financially, but I drove to New Hampshire all the way to Florida several times and worked along the way and slept in my car on several occasions that summer. Join the discord channel if you want to talk. Discord Link discord.gg/TpcxEGVrY3

  • @shifteeninjee9641
    @shifteeninjee9641 День назад +1

    We have been in one for a while - to me the data is delayed by at least 3 to 6 months.

  • @andrewmech55
    @andrewmech55 22 часа назад

    You show two recent quarters of fairly strong real GDP growth, can you explain how that indicates a recession?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  20 часов назад +2

      We are not in a recession which is why I say 2025 recession risk not 2024.

  • @IvanGeorgiev---
    @IvanGeorgiev--- Час назад

    We never had bottom in markets prior the recession. Why don't you sell at least half of your stocks and rebuy lower? Buffet did it lol

  • @MrFrankEast
    @MrFrankEast День назад +1

    Im about to be 30 picked a very low wage career for like 5 years and now want out. Currently draft, aka engineer bitchwork. Make about 35k per year. What do boys. Whats the move for the future? Whats an actual viable career so I can make decent plz bois.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      $35k is very low for an engineer as starting in 2010 I was already at $66k annual salary in chemical engineering in an entry level position. I would suggest looking for opportunities to learn new skills at work and outside work. Also look at applying to other jobs. I would also suggest using proper grammar and spelling when communicating with others. Working in construction also typically pays over $50k with only a high school diploma.

  • @FreshMedlar
    @FreshMedlar День назад +1

    People are also quitting their jobs less and less since 2021. Can this be a signal of economic uncertainty?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      Yes, that is being picked up in the JOLTS report. There are less open jobs available per unemployed person so it is becoming more competitive to find a new job which then makes people not quite as often as there are smaller pay increases due to lower demand for labor.

  • @TRUEALARMER
    @TRUEALARMER День назад +1

    thank you

  • @budstep7361
    @budstep7361 День назад +3

    On the recession length in months, it feels like the great depression would be a good benchmark too 😂

  • @tonytacos8079
    @tonytacos8079 День назад +1

    end of 2025 buy otm Puts on qqq etc for 26 27. This market will pump into a correction. Buy the dips and hold. I like you being real with your channel.

  • @critzilla9722
    @critzilla9722 10 часов назад

    What about all that talk about a MELT-UP ? A lot of youtube talk about it.. what do you think ?

  • @SumanDas-hf3hw
    @SumanDas-hf3hw День назад +1

    4.5 - 5% on 11 month CDs? Where?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +2

      I realized the FED was going to reduce rates so I locked in the CDs with Capital One a few months back in the 5 to 5.1% range. New CDs are closer to 4% now and dropping for the 1 year CD.

    • @SumanDas-hf3hw
      @SumanDas-hf3hw День назад

      @@financial_freedom101 makes more sense. I did the same. I was just perplexed that some bank was still offering CDs that high in yield.

  • @JohnBiscuits838
    @JohnBiscuits838 17 часов назад +2

    You look exactly like Tim Robinson in that thumbnail

  • @tysmith2366
    @tysmith2366 День назад +2

    God please can we just start this recession I have been hearing about since Covid

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      Yes, it is hard to call a recession to an exact date. Note that I have not called for a recession until the second half of 2024 and the time prior to that was in late 2019 due to similar issues. The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing). The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later. 2020 and 2022 did have quarters of negative GDP.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 21 час назад

      We had to get rid of 14 trillion dollars that were injected. That is a crap ton of money. It takes some time... but we are getting very close now.

  • @rocier
    @rocier 19 часов назад +1

    If you believed this, why wouldn't you sell everything and wait ffor a large dip?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  18 часов назад +1

      The stock market and the economy are not the same thing. This is how a business can layoff a bunch of people and the stock can actually go up at the same time since the business cut costs and increased profit margins as one example. Stocks are forward looking and economic data is backward looking. The purchasing of Put Options protect from downside risk while allowing movement up. The other growing risk is large amounts of government debt and lower interest rates can result in higher inflation rates which can increase asset prices. Also think about if relief checks are given to most people what do they do with them? They buy goods which are sold by businesses (stocks). I held through 2020 when people panicked and bought $4,000 per month in more stock while selling calls on the downside and buying a triple leveraged inverse SP500 so $10 shares went to over $130 per share when I sold. The SP500 then recovered and never had to sell any of it. When you have money the number one rule is do not lose it, number two is grow it.

    • @rocier
      @rocier 18 часов назад

      @@financial_freedom101 So stocks go up during a recession? No, they don't. A hedge is a hedge. Put your money where your mouth is, sell your shit, go all in on puts. If you wanna give bland, run of the mill financial advice, just say "buy spy." but you aint doing that, you're saying theres gonna be a rescission. If you really believed that, you'd sell everything.

  • @fstinson
    @fstinson День назад +2

    These are best explanations! Thank you

  • @Sam-r1g
    @Sam-r1g День назад +1

    Been watching this guy from a while. he is a multi millionire like me, our strategies differs a lot but hes a family man!!
    I cannot predict recession tho, nobody can. The slowdown may happen but gdp may not fall negative for consecutive cycles.. The reason why recession is hard this time is we dont have a area of slide, everytime, something or other has blown down from subprime mortgage to 911 attack etc.
    This time, everything seems to be hedged, Only thing I can see is stock market pop out. There must have to happen somthing that will pop this baloon.. May be Trump could be the reason.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +1

      Yes, it is hard to call a recession to an exact date. Note that I have not called for a recession until the second half of 2024 and the time prior to that was in late 2019 due to similar issues. The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing). The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later.

  • @marvinater5881
    @marvinater5881 59 минут назад

    I am 24 and have $45k USD and a $7,000 car to my name after working and living with my parents since I turned 18. I just moved out. I have the $45k (Most of it in a savings account making 4%) despite many failed crypto investments in the past years and now I'm just looking for something safe. Is it a bad idea to put $7k in a Roth IRA and then $28k in the S&P? I know dollar cost averaging is good but I'm going to have $28k just making 4% when it could be making 10%. Advice would be appreciated! Thanks

  • @jaredstraight6934
    @jaredstraight6934 День назад +7

    We’re going to melt up. This is 100% garbage. You sound like Harry Dent the perpetual bear who still is yet to be correct.

    • @SIMSLab-c1i
      @SIMSLab-c1i День назад +3

      I recently charted yield curve uninversions vs market tops. Did you know that the 10Y-2Y uninverts on average 100 days before the market tops? We are at 96 days since then. The 10Y-3M uninverts only 14 days before the market tops. Market tops are quiet events, they don't go from all time highs straight to recession and crash. My advice is keep an eye on the 10Y-3M yield curve, which is still uninverted. When it finally does uninvert, start taking profits.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +5

      I am not a bear I am invested for the long run in SP500. The stock market is not the economy! It is hard to call a recession to an exact date. Note that I have not called for a recession until the second half of 2024 and the time prior to that was in late 2019 due to similar issues. The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing). The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later. We had a recession in 2020 and had negative GDP for 2 quarters that were then revised for 2022 which was not a recession.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 21 час назад

      @@SIMSLab-c1iI might be aggressive here.. but already shorting... 😂❤

  • @kpimp10
    @kpimp10 День назад +1

    Informative , direct and clear !! 🎉

  • @JNorth87
    @JNorth87 День назад

    not financial advice but short term CDs, if you think a recession is coming, is probably not the move. You can always sell your CDs and if rates drop then your higher yielding CDs that oyu locked in before recession become worth more. Obviously do your own research. But if you can lock in CDs at 4-5% and then rates for new debt tanks because we're going into a recession and QE begins, those higher rate CDs you hold become worth more, relatively. But everything is worth less because the new inflation that's being introduced. So its a lose anyway. LOL

  • @Benbobr
    @Benbobr День назад +4

    Nice try but predicting an hyperobject like reccession is nearly impossible, too many moving objects affect this, especially in modern times. But what do I know maybe youre right

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +2

      Yes, it is hard to call a recession to an exact date. Note that I have not called for a recession until the second half of 2024 and the time prior to that was in late 2019 due to similar issues. The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing). The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 20 часов назад

      Listen I time the market daily. What you meant to say is it is difficult but not impossible. If I can do it day trading I can certainly do it swing trading (4 hr / daily chart) and investing (monthly / weekly chart). And it is not yet time to short. On any of those time frames. Until then we stay long... but we tighten our stop losses up... because the charts and all the forward indicators are all flashing red. If you want to learn how to time, which I recommend ... just know it takes years and lots of money but once you get it you are free. The markets are like a piggy bank after that. I am not saying you will not have losing trades because of course you will that is the admission to play. Best of luck.

  • @XxChuyoxX
    @XxChuyoxX День назад +3

    Nothing reliable is pointing towards an imminent recession. Central banks all over the world are entering an easing cycle (although for no good reason) so a recession isn't that clear. Although anything is possible, predicting one in today's market is difficult.
    Staying prepared with reliable income, savings, but always staying invested is wise as well. This should be standard practice for most

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +4

      It is hard to call a recession to an exact date. Note that I have not called for a recession until the second half of 2024 and the time prior to that was in late 2019 due to similar issues. The risk is increasing and starting to effect various industries with layoffs (tech and manufacturing) and rising unemployment and fewer open jobs. The FED sees the risks and has already reduced interest rates. The government will not tell you there is a recession until 6 months or more after it already started. I think the first half of 2025 is highly likely, but you will not be told by government agencies until sometime later.

  • @DAIIIVA
    @DAIIIVA День назад +1

    tom lee says the opposite

  • @contrariandealer3466
    @contrariandealer3466 День назад +1

    Government jobs should just be counted as a negative lol.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 20 часов назад

      So when America got into trouble with the depression FDR.... what did he do? Less or more govt jobs... Just asking because I think in 2 or 3 years we are in that or even a worse situation. Don't be so quick to bash the Govt jobs you might need one to survive. Now can we be more effieicent of course. But that time has passed. We are way past saving what we call the American financial system. There is no one walking the face of the earth that saves us from what comes next. People need to start getting ready. Stack food and water... pay down all your debt as fast as you can.

  • @CristianoFénix-z4b
    @CristianoFénix-z4b День назад +5

    We've been in a depression for the last year. It's similar to Obama's last term. Gov't over spending and high, hidden unemployment have lead to negative growth. Meanwhile, gov't spending raised the GDP - through shady reporting - making the numbers look better than they are. REady for money making now.

  • @fiverolltacos
    @fiverolltacos День назад +2

    fire sale

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +2

      That is the most likely short to mid term potential. The other less likely, but potential is that inflation picks up causing quick moves of most assets to the upside due to the large government debt and money printing and low interest to stimulate the economy. We will have to wait and see.

    • @fiverolltacos
      @fiverolltacos День назад

      @ living at home this time around while im in school, (went back at 26) so going to open my margins on risk but most of my portfolio is my ira and etf’s

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 20 часов назад

      In like 3 to 5 years everything is going to be 50-75% off ❤

  • @PaulTC97
    @PaulTC97 День назад

    short on airplane companies

  • @NusoWorld
    @NusoWorld Час назад

    I dunno crypto refuses to dump and give me entry lol

  • @kpimp10
    @kpimp10 День назад +1

    THANK YOU SIRRR 💪🏾💪🏾

  • @Bloodsaber64
    @Bloodsaber64 День назад +1

    A different source of mine not only said this was coming but it is gonna get really bad all the way into 2027, I recommend having a small farm or homestead if you can, or at least a little garden. I have other investments I expect to do well but the one thing I wish I had was a farm.

    • @Iconicwedgeshape
      @Iconicwedgeshape День назад +1

      I highly reccomend getting into indoor hydroponics. The amount of food you can grow in a single room is astounding.

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +2

      I farm, garden, and grow hydroponic lettuce here is the video link on my other channel: ruclips.net/video/ALodrUIsBlY/видео.html I really enjoy having 20+ fruit trees that can produce around $10,000 of food per year.

  • @wyattc4644
    @wyattc4644 23 часа назад +1

    Is he Christian or Mormon?

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  18 часов назад +1

      Odd question, Christian and a friend to people of many different faiths and nationalities. My friends and I laughed at our wedding when we realized my groomsmen were 1 Muslim, 1 Catholic, 1 Protestant, and 1 Atheist with one being Egyptian, another Polish, and the other two American citizens because the priest was asking some questions. I also have a lot of friends that practice Hinduism. We all are good friends and find that there are a lot of overlapping core messages across most religions. For example, there is almost always some version of the "Golden Rule" of be nice to others or do unto others what you would want them to do unto you.

    • @wyattc4644
      @wyattc4644 3 часа назад

      @@financial_freedom101 I only asked bc I had the feeling you were one of the two which ig you're saying that I was right. And nice! having all those friends from different backgrounds is great and what an opportunity to share the gospel with them. Most religions do have some good about them but Jesus says that the only way to the Father is through Him!

  • @aersn4locs
    @aersn4locs День назад +2

    Didnt the fed or government adjusted their recession definition 😂😂😂 we been in a recession since the last 2 years 😅😅😅

  • @huh0123
    @huh0123 День назад +1

    I love how trump will be blamed for this too when it’s the incompetent people of current Washington setting him up for failure unfortunately.

  • @brigibb
    @brigibb День назад +3

    “There’s probably gonna be significant job loss in the government with the new administration”
    DOGE for the win!! 💪💪😂

    • @financial_freedom101
      @financial_freedom101  День назад +6

      Hopefully it is only short term pain and corrects long term waste and reduce the government debt as intended. Any layoffs from the government will likely have very long severance pay periods to reduce the impact financially to those who are effected. One unforeseen negative may be that many people take lower pay in government roles because they are considered safe and with that changing people may require higher pay in the remaining positions / departments.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 20 часов назад

      Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.