The World's Craziest Population Pyramids
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- Опубликовано: 14 окт 2024
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I wonder how accurate the population projections of 2100 will end up being. 50 years back(roughly speaking) people thought that the population would keep increasing for a long time yet now we see that it's peaked or going to peak soon for many countries. Maybe just as how those predictions were wrong, so could our projections?
It really depends on the political and socioeconomic situation in every country.
The governments could increase or decrease birth rates with something like the 3 child law or financial support to families.
African countries might become more developed and decrease birth rates with contraceptives and education
The vídeo itself is interesting but it is unlikely most of the projections will become true, just because a lot of unexpected things can happen in the next 80 years
For instance, war in Ukraine has brought a lot of supply chain issues, which brought economic crisis in many places, which in turn will likely make people reconsider having children
They are incorrect even in the short term. Many countries are now in their censuses showing way less kids have been born than the world thought. Also, it is highly likely that some countries will have very sharp drop in number of kids being born per mother quite soon. A type that the Iran and Bangladesh had.
@@blackhole3407 I think we should have a 33 child law instead and enforce forced families via A.I. matching of humans. Basically couples are chosen using a system and are forced to produce children until either one or both parties die of exhaustion. The man would also die of exhuastion because he would be forced to care for all the kids while the woman is pregnant.
You're confusing estimating with fortune telling. Science never thinks it "knows". But when estimates are presented to the public the mob tends to think the estimates are predictions. Reading the papers of actual science you'll see they are only presenting data and many alternatives. But if your business is media you want viewers so you only present some headline to the mob that excites viewers to watch. This is why the mob doesn't trust science. As far as the mob knows science always seems wrong because they watch crap media.
Russia's population pyramid is one of these you should look at. It has a lot of "waves" of people percentage in middle ages. It is echo of ww2, where a lot of young people, potential fathers were killed at the front in 1941, and not only after ~20 years, but even after ~40 years after war, number of born children was much less, than is other years
Poland has a similar situation, also because of huge WW2 losses. In general I think that it could be found in a few other countries too.
Also for the WW2 generation in Russia, there are far more females than males, reflecting the amount of men who died in WW2
Russia destroyed its population
Absolutely! It is most visible though when you look at the pyramid as it was in the early 2000's (2002, 2004 etc) since it didn't yet have the chance to flatten the curves in higher age groups.
And also what thomas mentioned, the whole male group is significantly smaller in the age groups that actually fought as soldiers in both WW1 and especially WW2
And look at Ukraine one 🇺🇦 you ll be scared to see how similar they are!
On a smaller scale I live in the capital of the province of BC in Canada, it’s called Victoria. We have the highest proportion of people over the age of 80 in the country. I can see the demand for health care and living assistance for this population. As we move more in this direction you have to wonder if everyone’s needs will really be met.
Yeah that's right it's probably because victoria has the warmest winters and most pleasant weather in all of canada, even after being an island in the Pacific, it gets less than half the rainfall than vancouver gets, so it is the elderly aged retired people who make up this large proportion of older people
@@seth_everman Definitely attracts them for all all of those reasons! The tough thing is just setting up sufficient supports when they become less independent.
@@RsSooke i agree, by the way I will be coming to Victoria University for my bachelors next year, so that I am researching alot about it🙂.Love from india
In previous times care work was done for free by female members of the extended family. Now that women's work has been monetised after the shift to the cities people are realising that they cannot afford their own care needs (or else they are forced to sell their home to pay for those needs). Just the fact that you had to ask yourself that question shows that you already know the answer.
@@ninamartin1084 My family has struggled with this as well. My mother and father took my grandmother into their home for 3 years before she moved into an assisted living facility, she’s almost 90. Luckily she has her husbands pension or she would not be able to afford long term care.
South America: Am I a joke?
Oceania: Yeah. It's rough buddy.
Him: Are there any areas I missed?
Me: Um, yeah.... a few.
It doesn't really matter anyways. I have a feeling that in 20 years or even 10 years these charts are going to look completely inaccurate because of people moving to and from regions due to climate change and/or war. Plus, there's always the possibility of a pandemic worse than Covid-19. I imagine that people in 2100 are going to look back at our predictions and laugh at how far off the mark we were.
@@AmyEugene I feel like 10 year predictions would be extremely optimistic, 100 years is just playing 'what if'
Yeah lol, always this two are forgettable
The one thing I think that would have improved this video would have been to show a sample of 5 different nations with 'typical' demographics pyramids at the start. Greenland and Antarctica would have been interesting additions, if purely because of their exceptionally low populations.
Antarctica surprisingly also has the lowest infant mortality rate of any continent - 0%; with 11 out of 11 babies born there surviving.
Antarctica is effectively the scientist continent, their interest in it is mainly the lack of any historical human activity which they painstakingly maintain wherever possible so it's questionable if humans really interact with/inhabit Antarctica or if things just sort of take place in large human vehicles reasonably near Antarctica
I really wanna see the gender % in those 2 countries too, I assume most of them will be men working in mines
I didn't even know there WERE babies born in Antarctica, like, at all.
@@DarkViperEU ahh yes all those mines in Antarctica 🇦🇶
What these graphs don't account for are wars, economic and political turmoil moving forward and migration. They just account for current trends, which one could hardly argue will continue unhindered. Take any predictions after the year 2050 with a huge grain of salt.
Of course the timing of those events is unpredictable. These charts also assume that Japan will be able to hold onto it's anti immigrant culture.
@@stevenroshni1228 Or maybe Japan's population would rebound and boom at 2200, more resources, less people = more births
He was literally talking about the effects of war in both Rwanda and Syria.
@@AudieHolland I meant future projections
I would take any prediction after 2040 with some degree of salt as economic predictions for 2040 predict a large automation paradigm change
Would be interesting to see Nigeria's population pyramid through the ages up until 2100
Niger is the fastest growing in percentage terms .. Nigeria is fastest growing in quantity
Niger would grow 7 times to 170 million .. Nigeria would grow 4 times to 800 million
@@rohanchoudhury8043 let’s hope that this population explosion, if it unfolds according to the model, doesn’t yield terrible civil wars like in Syria and Rwanda. In any case it is difficult to see how Niger will be able to feed the expected population. There will be a continued trend for emigration out of Africa, or within Africa from the poorest countries to those capable of feeding the masses.
@@albertlevert2988 ...If you closely study the Muslim Africa is growing at 4% .. Christian growing at 2.5% per annum ...
Muslims are growing all around the world with the common intention of Population Jihaad ...
This is the reason of growth rate of Niger , Mali , Senegal , Sudan , Somalia , Nigeria , Burkina Faso , Afghanistan , Iraq , Yemen ...
The poorer the nation , the birth rate should decrease coz of less resources but that's opposite in Muslim world ..
Yemen , Afghanistan , Syria are the poorest in Asia but still they are growing at 3.5%
@@rohanchoudhury8043 so we have to prepare for important migrations toward « older » parts of the world.
@@albertlevert2988 ...Yup ..
Europe will be the first victim of it
Islamic world has already planned to capture & control Europe by 2050 through migration
Sweden , Belgium , Hungary , France , Greece , Macedonia , Bulgaria are the most vulnerable ones
Once they become majority the resources & wealth of these ultra rich nations will feed the poor Islamic world in Africa & Asia
There is a far, far worse problem to consider which is the accelerating pace of industrialization. The first wave of industrializing countries took over a century for the balance in their populations to shift from rural to urban. The latest wave is going from heavily agrarian to mostly urban in a generation and to being able to sustain population increases unlikely any in human history. They are able to do this thanks to the integrated global economic system. if that collapses due to war or due to a big country like China or Russia saying that they don't like the current rules and really being willing to enforce a change in the waters they can reach the entire system could collapse. If that happens, Africa will experience the mother of all famines.
Agreed, we already seeing the beginning of the collapse. Without a massive input of fertilisers much of the third world farmland is marginal at best. These countries are currently highly dependent on imported food, fertiliser or both. With global shortages and price hikes of both fertiliser and fuel, which will affect all transport, I have the unhappy feeling we will be facing the starvation; not of millions, but of billions. Those population pyramids take no account of this. One way or another, I believe we could be facing and Africa with a lower population than it has today.
I think Africa will see some heavy losses, but there is a good chance those losses will be limited by geopolitical competition. The New Axis Powers are growing increasingly interested in sustaining Africa’s growth in exchange for its resources. We’ll try to give them some competition. Africa is simply too valuable to abandon.
Africa has no one to blame but themselves if they experience the mother of all famines. The international community has spent the last 50 years trying to stop the disastrous African population explosion by providing sex education and family planning access, but the African countries always respond with "Stop trying to force your western cultural imperialism on our traditional socieities!"
If the climate collapses and mass famine starts, the rest of the world should close off the exits. Don't let Africa export its self-destructive attitudes any more than it already has with the excuse that it's a "humanitarian emergency". If tens of millions of military age males start coming towards Europe and America on boats claiming they are 'climate refugees', treat them as the invaders they are - don't let them reach shore alive.
@@dark7element If they come over here as refugees, I’ll head on down to the ports and open the gates myself. As long as they are peaceful, they are welcome. A couple million young employees working in basic service jobs is just what this economy needs.
@@dark7element Yeah, they would be the real problem. Not the Mainland Chinese reaching Taiwan on boats. As things stand, Africa is slated for a Mayan like population collapse. Africa will be the exporters of the kind of hordes not seen since the end of the Western Roman Empire.
India, the US, and some developed nations in Europe would have been nice to see and compare with those shown in the video.
5:25 Italy
@@RoccosVideos Yes, Italy is there...but Germany, Finland, maybe even Portugal and Greece would have been nice to get an overall comparison of European countries to countries in other parts of the world.
@@samshare2146 Germany's average age is 47. Like most of the rest of Europe, their population wont recover. They are having the same problem China is having. Women once liberated from social pressure to have children, dont just start having kids again.
So basically every nation will have to go through a Venezuelan type collapse before women will start having kids again. (there are multiple reasons why that is)
look on it yourself; the search is rather easy; all those populationpyramids come from the same source
a bit the regions of the world?
western europe, scandinavia, central/eastern europe and soutern europe,
i'm not so sure how to divide up north america,
west coast, east coast, canada, 'the middle' , the usa south and mexico?
or would you put the line at the mexican border and include mexico into an latin america comparisson? :) .
You should have included Eastern Europe, India and USA. Other countries like Iran, South America and Bangladesh would have been interesting. ( because they have managed their birthrate in a short period of time).
RUclips HAS ALL THOSE OTHER COUNTRY VIDEOS
Birth rate is the biggest influence over social, political, and economical policies of a country.
And social policies influence birth rate.
Birth rate is a result of a country’s economic realities, not the other way around
Not sure either social policies or economic realities explain the very lopsided male-to-female stats represented in the Bahrain-UAE-Kuwait pyramids. I would have liked some discussion about that.
@@rachelnakasaki319 economic policy of luring people from South Asia then turning them into indentured servants?
@@52flyingbicycles that's not true at all the poorer a country the higher the birth rate regardless of economic policies. There are videos that you can watch that can demonstrate this far better than I cam write it. A birth rate of 2.7 is enough to sustain a country from r 30 years. When I'm Europe it fall below a 2 ondown to 1.7 Italia that is not substantial enough to maintain a vulture hence why European countries import population, but this did not seem to work bc of lack of assimilation and the population birth rate is sometimes above a 9. 0. Which mean for Paris and other countries they will not exist anymore culturally.
An important thing to note is that our measurement of "development" is also a measurement of how much is spent on a child in all aspects. Which isn't to say that it is cheap or easy to raise one in poorer countries. But an increasing problem in our so-called "developed world" is that the younger generations don't feel like they have the time and money to have offspring in the first place. Japan, with its work ethics that led to a term for working well beyond exhaustion being coined in the 1970s, is a very good example of this. There even are enough people that withdraw from everything for similar reasons called "hikikomori." China has seen movements of a similar vein in "lying flat" and a recent one I've forgotten the name of. If anything, all these are indicative of greater systemic and societal problems that we can't solve with our current way of thinking about work and life.
The " Let it rot" movement is the one you are thinking of. It's like lying flat but more extreme.
The male to female disproportion is always so heartbreaking. Female infanticide is despicable.
Do a video on the lancet study on the population projection of the world - their projections are even more stark and drastic with China being halved by 2050
the prediction made in 1930s were way off. and in these SCIFI movies or Dystopian movies = we see skyscrapers
but with what baby population?😁😆😅 its not from our current future.
China is not the only one. All 1st and 2nd world country is beyond replacement age.
YES, CHINAL WILL THEN BE HALF OF AMERICA POPULATION AT THAT TIME, DUE TO THEIR 1 CHILD POLICY, THEY DID NOT KNOW WHAT THEY WERE DOING AND STILL DON'T
An interesting thing to note is that there is a fertility gap between the desired amount of children and the actual birth rates in developed countries that in my opinion is linked to the cost of living for parents. Children are very expensive in the developed world with it being over 200 thousand USD over the 18 years without accounting for college or a tradeschool and with the replacement rate for the population being around 2.1 on average a parental unit needs to be able to support over 400000 thousand dollars to give their child they want and if they can't with the spread of contraception and safe sex practices they chose not to. Obviously it would be a terrible idea to ban contraception due both the moral and practical effects it would have on the spread of std's so they we can do to safe guard our population from demographic shackle of the older generations taking up an increasing share of our effort as they go into retirement is to increase child care support for parents and make sure they know how they can get support along with fixing the general cost of living crisis that is going through the western world.
It doesn't jump right from 200,000 to 400,000, because a lot of that 200k cost has to do with the initial costs of being a first-time parent.
A lot of the things that you buy end up being usable for any subsequent children you have. Also, people's spending habits tend to change drastically after the first child, and when they are raising a second child, they are able to stretch their money a lot further and do things more cost effectively.
All that being said... Yes, it's extremely expensive and cost is probably the largest factor preventing people from having children.
Which leads to the question of why the government doesn't introduce policies to make it easier for people to afford having children. There are several examples from the 20th and 21st centuries, of Western governments instituting economic changes to make it easier for people to have children and turning around a collapsing birth rate in just a few years.
So it's completely doable, and yet most Western governments choose not to do it. And instead, they rely on mass immigration to make up the population gap.
@@scottcantdance804 It's particularly frustrating when the party that makes a big deal about how supposedly bad immigration is (not that I believe that) also never address supporting parents at all and oppose it in the name of "Responsible fiscal policy" all I can think of is that they are both idiodic as well as nativist.
Edit: as for your comments on the costs do you believe it would be worth while to structure how much is covered based on if it's a couples first child since that's when they would need the most help and have an increased but lesser coverage for subsequent children. I was reading an article called "pro-natal policy works but comes with a hefty price tag" and they make the argument that while money is a good way to increase birth rates it would be an incredible increase from current incentives on the order of at least 50% to 400% of a house holds child care expenses and that there needs to be work done in other areas in the enconomy to bring costs down namely housing to truely get the benifits from a increased tax credit.
@@scottcantdance804 you answered it yourself, they can still rely on immigration - qualified immigrants at that. For example, let's think of germany and turkey. Both have declining birthrates but since germany is far more developed, turkey still has a huge young adult population that Germany can just swoop. Because the educated youth will want to live in a developed nation instead of a chaotic developing nation and since the developed countries are more strict with their migration policies now, they get cream of the crop as expats - these expats will also be able to fit in that society since they are well educated and motivated. This means the dropping birthrates won't be an issue untill developing countries run out of eligible, educated and smart young population. So they won't really do anything untill it actually becomes a problem - a.k.a. finally, using tax money on old population's healthcare gets more expensive than giving young population the incentive to repopulate.
It's not money. Child support did not exist for most of people in history, yet they had lots of kids. It's reliable birth control, which we only have since the 60s, and thats when birth rates collapsed. The areas of the world were fertility rates are still high also rarely make use of contraceptives, as much as Bill Gates wants Africans to use condoms, it seems they just won't.
YES, IT NOW IS TO COSTLY TO HAVE 3 CHILDREN, THIS WILL MEAN LESS PEOPLE TO WORK AND PAY INTO THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM FOR ALL THE RETIRED PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY
It'd be cool to see these graphs with the raw numbers instead of just percentages... I feel like it'd give a better idea of what has happened through the years
you cannot predict this.
the planet population is actually shrinking rapidly. HE IS USING OLD ASSUMPTION from the 50's and 60's just like scifi movies. Our population will drop now not in the future.
that is what is actually triggering economic troubles. NO BABIES NO CUSTOMERS
The website gives you the numbers
@@madewulf like a graph/visual of the raw numbers? That's what I'd like to find (but I guess I can look at the website)
It seems that in developed countries, population tends to stabilise (neither growing nor decreasing). As shown in those “2100” demographics, people of each age group is in equal proportions. Have Earth reached its capacity to house humans? It also appears that in the future, people will work for their entire lifespan.
I very much doubt that as we are getting more efficient all the time making less workers required. Taxes or crime will skyrocket though, each country can pick which one.
WELL, IN AMERICA, WOMEN ARE NOT HAVING ENOUGH CHILDREN TO SUPPORT ANY CULTURE, IT IS NOW 2.1 IT NEEDS TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO MAKE UP FOR BABIES DYING, CAR ACCIDENTS, DISEASE, OTHERWISE NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY CULTURE, ALREADY THERE ARE OVER 11 MILLION JOBS GOING BEGGGIN IN AMERICA
You’re wrong, populations are declining, nigh collapsing in developed countries. This is very bad.
Wow, very interesting, thank you. (I hit the subscribe button.)
As a Japanese person, our population pyramid looks like an obsidian tip on a prehistoric arrow
i wonder what it would be like to be 80-84 in Niger
Sadly you wouldn’t. Vast majority don’t live that long
Pretty much guaranteed your care needs would be met my younger female members of your extended family, so you would not be forced to sell your home to pay for your stay in a care home.
quality does not always have a full edge over quantity especially since quality is harder to replace and recover. For me, it's finished in battle when all numbers diminished, but it's finished in war when all quality is lost.
Cool video
Your video's are great good job
All this tells us that human population will reach a peak soon. Interesting to see that happening soon. The peak could come as soon at about a world population of 9 billion before the earths population starts to go down.
I don't know where you got your data from but China has already peaked and it's population will crash the coming decades down to 600-700 million not 1 billion
Would take longer than that, not all 50 year olds are going to die in 30 years, they probably could live for another 40 years before becoming an irrelevant statistic.
Ive lives in Bahrain for most of my life, and I can agree on the fact that there are much more men than women, and most of the men there are adults
I wander if south Asians will ever mutiny in Qatar
@@williamthebonquerer9181 hein .. What do you mean by sounth Asian which onr
@@aghileshemdani3144 Indians. If they had guns they could annex Qatar into India
@@williamthebonquerer9181 an overseas province of India. Bharati Bahrain.
I think there are more number of Pakistanis in Qatar than indians
How are we still holding Elon Musk up as a beacon of intelligence after everything we’ve seen to the contrary? 😂 Great video until that point
Agreed. Then the next part was the “terrifying” population growth of west Africa and the uncertain food supply. Obvious solution is to encourage families with kids to emigrate. Western women have better things to do than having lots of kids.
People aren’t having enough children in the developed world it’s not my problem that people in Africa are having too many kids both the West and Africa are unsustainable but in different ways soon in the western world there will be too many old people and not enough young people to take care of them The demand for a living assistance and medical care will be too much for the economy to handle taxpayers will simply not be able to afford this
How many children do you have, Kate?
(Rhetorical question, don't answer, we don't care.)
Elon's part of the solution, is that what's bothering you?
Where exactly he was not right Karen?
This comment has no substance 🙄🤦♂️
What is the source for the projections please?
Most concerning are the projections for the African countries. As things stand today, they are slated for famine and starvation this year. Already they are suffering 50 to 60% youth unemployment. I can't imagine them reaching China's population and having a 90% unemployment rate. How would that even work?
Even if they flee north into Europe, Europe is experiencing energy crisis too and would be lucky to make it past the next two years unscathed.
as a kenyan, i laugh when i here elon musk saying that population decline will be the worst thing........unless he's talking about a few countries like japan and some developed european nations. otherwise the problems we have in subsaharan africa, most asian countries and latin america would improve if birth rate reduced
North America would’ve been cool to see
so look for it
@@rncmv that’s not the point 🤦🏽♂️ 😑
eastern europe would be interesting. sizes can be similar to west but population is way under in some places
POLITICS and weather affects the population.
For example Korea and Japan reflects WEST population because they adopted WEST culture.
YES, THE ITALIAN POPULATION WILL BE GONE BY 2050, IN FACT ITALY IS GIVING AWAY FREE VACANT HOUSES TO PEOPLE THAT WILL MOVE THERE AND HAVE CHILDREN, AND SOME STATES ARE NOW DOING THIS, THEY WILL PAY FOR YOUR MOVE JUST TO GET YOU TO WORK IN THEIR STATE
You forgot the Cambodian demographic pyramid. 30% of the Cambodian population died during the 1970s Genocide by Pol pot. Big drop in population for those 40 and older.
Amazing how it took everybody 10 years to catch up with Peter Zeihan.
Except for his China predictions zeihan is really underrated.
@@RK-cj4oc He predicted that China would turn inwards ,seems to me that he was right on so far. Because in the long run most people won't pick totalitarism over Liberal democracy.
@@jhrusa8125 That part was wrong, cause Chinese culture and history is different. In their culture, getting politically involved isn't very important. So in reality, what happened was people didn't care as long as they were getting money.
@@HassanalBolkiahSoyjak In that case fine they can never be the world's dominant power. They won't even be the dominant power in Asia they're not innovated enough. That job will go to Japan , and the USA will have to deal with them someday just like the past.
@@jhrusa8125 I don´t see Japan as a problem, since they have to strugle more and more with their aging population.
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These would make more sense if, instead of age, the left side of the graph showed birth years.
That would make it hard to compare pyramids from different times, but it sounds like a great idea for an animation.
Yeah, I was stopping and doing that in my head. Interesting to see when the baby booms of the past occurred.
I am thinking that it is not the population pyramid that matters so much, but some calculation of the absolute number of young people combined with GDP and productivity.
Actually might be good, less young people, more elderly, elderly doesn't work, workers become valuable, young people get more salary.
@@1mol831 so the economy is that simple. They should reach to you.
You missed South Korea's inverted pyramid.
Man this video serves as a wake up call to many societies 🤔
if they need some youtube video to wake up, they are not worth to survive, coz they are too stupid
Yeah, overpopulation is killing the environment and quality of life.
WELL, PEOPLE CAN NOT AFFORD MORE CHILDREN OVER 2, THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO REPLACE THE POPULATION, GREAT PROBLESMS FOR GDP IN THE FUTURE,
@@domcizek Yes they can afford more children than two. The trick is to be a poor single mother. The more kids you have the more government money you'll get. At a certain point you won't even need to work. There was a 40 year old woman in Florida, no job, no man, and 17 kids. Government paid for her to stay in 3 or 4 motel rooms and food stamps to feed her brood.
@@tigerburn81 HAHA, YES, I KNOW, BACK IN THE 60'S I WORKED FOR 1.25 PER HOUR AND THE COMPANY I WORKED FOR HAD A WOMEN THAT MADE THE SAME MONEY BUT DROVE A NEW CADILLAC, I ASK, HOW CAN SHE AFFORD IT, THEY TOLD ME SHE HAD 10 FOSTER CHILDREN, OF ALL AGES, THE OLDEST ONES WATCHED THE YOUNGEST ONES, , BUT TO BE REAL, THERE ARE A TON OF CHILDREN JUST LOOKING FOR FOSTER PARENTS, AND THE STATE PAYES TO BE A FOSTER PARENT, MY 70 YEAR OLD SINGLE NEIGHBOR HAD TWO FORSTER CHILDREN AND IT IT PAYED HER MORTAGE FOR HER
I'd argue that the country of Niger and others with similar demographics, should be extremely concerned about their future population projections, there is no way a country like Niger could have any hope of sustaining 140 million people, and that's not to mention that the current global food baskets are near max output as it is, along with climate change and underground aquifer depletion that will make food production go on the decline. I fear for the future.
Meh, Italy had projected to get to 72 millions. We arrived at 60 and now we’re decreasing already.
@@deaththekid3998 Italy doesn't have to deal with an advancing Sahara Desert, there is also the declining water table and increasing drought risk. There is also the fact that African populations are being heavily dependent on foreign food imports, with suppliers already strained as it is with the world's current population. I find your lack of concern on this matter ironic, as Italy has recently dealt with a large drought, in the Po valley where much of your country's food supply comes from.
I think it's totally fine if the country is wealthy enough to hold the population, and rather it's more of a good thing, since more young ppl mean more productivity.. Just take a look at China, with that population it can sustain it self and actually growing fast cuz of that huge amount of workforce to contribute to society, also population declining is actually bad imho just take a look at japan, while it's very rich, in the last few years due to it's population declining their growth is not as big compare to young population country like Vetnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Philippines. As long the country is stable enough to sustain a population, more ppl is actually really not that bad tbh
@@greywolf7422 oh I am concerned about all of this. What I mean is, the data shows that when a society urbanizes, the birth rate declines faster than previously thought. It’s why almost all developed countries never reached the population forecasted in the 60’s, and why Africa will probably never reach 3 billions, much less 4 billions. So yeah, the situation is worrying and we definitely need to be proactive, but there’s no Bladerunner future ahead of us.
@@maddude6342 economic growth cannot be detached from natural resources man. “Productivity” isn’t worth shit if you don’t have food and water. An overpopulated country can only sustain itself by importing food, and now we’re seeing how unreliable the global food chain is. A country with a huge workforce, but unable to produce its own food, is like a giant with legs made of glass. Also, I would do more resource on China if I were you. They have big issues, and are probably facing a population decline as well.
I was not able to understand your pyramid charts. It was difficult to read the numbers as they were so small. I would have liked to understand your observations more. Thanks for the interesting videos that you bring us!
skill issue
The horizontal bar/x axis shows the percentage of total population in correlation to the vertical/ y axis, that shows the population age from 0 to 100 in different groups.
Blue collar is male percentage and vice versa.
@@carlmller4769 Thank you Carl, very helpful of you. I will watch it again with this in mind. 🙂
Do these charts factor improvements in health technology? Because it will make a huge difference in age populations over time
As would wars and new diseases.
No one knows the future, but, the numbers we have now in the brackets we do, and know, are reasonably calculable.
WELL, OLD PEOPLE ARE ALREADY LIVING TO LONG, AND SUCKING UP RESOURCES THAT MANY COUNTRIES DO NOT HAVE HMMM, SOYLENT GREEN COMES TO MIND
But you can't create an artificial baby no matter how much technology progress.
@@seiji-kun9488 WELL, RIGHT NOW AND HITTING THE FOOD STORES WILL BE CULTURED MEAT, LIKE CHICKEN, GROWN FROM JUST ONE CELL FROM THE CHICKEN, THIS WILL BE NEEDED ON THE MOON AND MARS WHEN WE GO THERE TO LIVE, SO, MAYBE THEY WILL BE ABLE TO CULTURE A HUMAN IN THE FUTURE, WHO KNOWS
Super interesting. Well done, sir!
Do the estimates of China’s population reflects the news that they over counted by 100 million on their most recent census? I’ve heard some estimates that by 2050 they’ll be under 1 billion, also the I’ve read the change to child policy wasn’t as effective as it was hoped to be due to the fact that Chinese couples had chosen housing for a family of three and not a family of four. When people say an a authoritarian Regime is better than a democracy because they can get everybody going in One Direction, they assume they’re going in the right direction. But when they go in the wrong direction it’s an absolute catastrophe.
In the last year of the one child policy, there were 15 million births. There were 17 million births the year after it.
Last year there were 10 million births
This was only seven years ago. It's gone from a 2016 peak of 17 million births to 10 million in 2021 in only five years.
"Wasn't as effective as it was hoped" is a mild understatement 😛
China's censor actually doesnt include all the children that were born outside of the one child policy. There are estimate of about 12-13 millions children unaccounted for. These children has no record, no birth certificates or any identifications. So who really knows the real population of China and its projection.
By the time Japan's population ends up with straight sides, the mobile robot population will likely be ten times the population, and the fixed robots in factories 50x.
Thanks for the video! This is a fascinating topic. It bothers me a little that you talk about the projections as if they were set in stone. They definitely aren't. Things change all the time, and the chances that the populations in 2100 will be as predicted are pretty slim, in my opinion.
Great video!!
"This year, Earth Overshoot Day fell on July 28" so to keep using resources as we are now, we need to half the global population. seeing how many live in poor conditions, for everyone to live a nice cozy life, we probably need to get it down to a third or even a quarter.
these projected population pyramids are nowhere near what is needed.
i see massive wars and famine within my lifetime, climate change alone wont be enough to equalize the imbalance.
The important thing is to not let primitive cultures, that obstinately refused outside offers of assistance in getting their population growth under control, externalize the problem they've created by sending wave after wave of migrants towards other countries. Seal off the exits. Set a goal for net zero outmigration from Africa over the next 30 years. The problem will solve itself. The next generation will realize how idiotic their ancestors who insisted "birth control, small families and female education are WESTERN IMPERIALISM!" were, and get with the program.
Nope we don't have to decrease the population at all to sustain the environment. The ipcc has said temperatures will peak in the 2050s at 1.5 to 2C... along with more GMOs and better tech we can easily feed 12 billion people.
The fact you think we need to decrease productivty and make people poor is hilarious.
@@ogzombieblunt4626 the fact that you think that spreading the same amount of resources over fewer people would make them poorer is even more hilarious.
@@tomduke1297
Nice zero sum mindset. Just because more people exist doesn't mean less resources per capita, especially if resources can be reused. If the economy is based on a recyclable material like batteries we can have almost no mining. And whatever mining we do have can be monitored as point source pollution. Which is orders of magnitudes better than spewing out carbon into the atmosphere.
As consumers become more wealthy they demand cleaner environments. This has become evedent as consumer interest has shifted to EVs thanks to a free market solution called tesla. Even friedman predicted that consumers would be demanding change on pollution and vote with their wallets.
The only ones that will cause massive wars and famine is the anti GMO crowd like Vandya shiva who recently proved this by destabilizing Sri Lanka with their pseudoscience. Anti-scientific people like Shiva this are the biggest threats to third world populations. If you want an overview of Shiva just lookup 'Myles Powers' on YT. Yes if we use GMOs we can absolutely increase carrying capacity.
@@ogzombieblunt4626 im sorry, im just not that much of an optimist.
feeding 12billion people while producing no pollution and providing everybody with a cosy life is not something i can see happening in the next 50 years.
what i see is a lot of famine, war, death and misery. if we are quick with all the war and death parts, we can rebuild smarter.
either way i dont have much more than 50 years left, so i wont be seeing any of the good parts, no matter which one of us is right.
Videos like this need to include a discussion about the world's/region's/nation's carrying capacity to give meaning to the numbers.
Carrying capacity is a scam
@@CountingStars333 literally what I was about to post.
The China data doesn't appear accurate. The recently published 2020 census (trickling out because it's so bad) has China's population dropping below 650 million by 2050...and shows China overcounted young women by 100 million in the previous census (regions get funding according to population so there is high incentive to inflate the numbers). China is now the fastest aging country in history and facing demographic collapse thanks to decades of the One-Child policy.
It's really amazing just how bad the Chinese situation is. From 17 million births in 2017 to 10 million last year.
They ended the one child policy in 2015 when they were at 15 million births.
If it hadn't been for that these numbers are from the global times (so the reality is certainly not better than they're saying) I would have had real problems believing it.
War has a big impact.
1. Soldiers die who then do not become fathers
2. Women have fewer children
3. The population changes drastically due to flight, expulsion and resettlement
4. Famines can also be triggered. economic difficulties can be the result
The "thing" is NOT a pyramid, but a DIAGRAM!
(Calling it a pyramid suggests that there is a NORMAL form of the population diagram - which there ISN'T!)
How could West Africa’s population reach 1.4B if the region becomes less and less habitable? If they experience climate collapse, there won’t be the human development required for population growth
Long may the birth rates across the world continue to decrease to enable the world's human population to reduce to a sustainable level - that at the beginning of the 20th centuary at most.
Economists tend to live in a make-believe world where growth is a good thing in order to fund, amongst other things, care for the elderly. However, we live on a finite planet that cannot keep on giving just because humanity has overcome nature's natural equilibrium.
We currently over-consume all metals. These are not only non-renewable, we, as a planet, do not recycle even a small proportion of all that we use.
For example; in (approx) 2009 it was estimated that humanity had extracted approximately 50m tonnes of gold (a metal with probably the highest recycling of any). Of these 50m tonnes, 25m were extracted up to 1948 and the other 25m in the following 60 years.
Urban populations are dependent on man-made infrastructure all of which uses very large amounts of metals, the usage per capita continuing to rise. This, combined with a continuing population increase brings forward the day when humanity will have to revert to primative life-styles that will have been largely forgotten.
Nature will ultimately win abck the much-changed world.
This is what I think of every time I hear "we need to grow in population to have a stable economy" Earth is not infinite space... if people could survive with no mechanical help when their population was more or less stable, how is it that we can't do that now with ALL the help we made for ourselves? I say we can, but the people at the top are greedy, and thats what we need a constant growth for.
All of these metrics assume that no one starves to death when global trade breaks down and half of the population is too old to work.
6:33 that's actually Sossusvlei, in Namibia, in Southern Africa. Very far from Western Africa.
The question of how future populations will cope is often answered with innovations. We are a lot more productive now per capita than 40 years ago, and technology has a lot to answer for that.
So when you ask how we’re going to cope with an aging population, the biggest challenge is going to be social care. It’s manual, labour instensive work, and it doesn’t pay well. It uses up a lot of human capital that would otherwise be used in more valuable economic activities.
The solution is innovation. If you can for example design houses that cater for reduced mobility, then that can mitigate the need for social care. Better designed products (e.g. kitchen, bathroom and laundry products) that address physical impairments will become more prominent. Cognitive impairments are more difficult, but I do think we’ll see innovation here too.
Respectfully, citing Elon Musk harms your credibility. The man says what he does to get a quick buck, not from a genuine source of intelligence or compassion. I think it would be better to instead cite an academic or even a research institute in the future.
Well is Musk wrong on this? I dont see the west surviving with its current low birth rate
He is a very intelligent man though, he knows how to use his popularity for his advantage.
Lol typical Elon's hater
I think Musk wants to grow so we destroy the Earth, and thus have to inhabite Mars.
spoken by an Elon hater who is obviously jealous of Elon's wisdom and success.
Awesome, my friend. 😍💕 Big like. 👍 Have a nice day.🤗✨
The age old dilemma, mortality or reproduction. The longer the average lifespan of individuals, the less likely they are going to reproduce. Vice versa.
It isn't about the lifespan, but to living standards and government support. I speak as an Italian, so the problem here is really important, I understand that women now usually have children in their 30s instead of becoming mothers at 16 (which is still happening in developing countries), so obviously there is less time to have lots of children, but the biggest pregnancy killer is the very little support of the government, the costs of raising a child are extremely high, combined with a short maternity leave makes a lot of people hesitant about starting a family. To make a comparison Sweden puts a lot of effort in reducing the costs of education, with a longer maternity leave and with a more child friendly society (a lot of offices have places to leave the kid while the mother works). The problem isn't the living standard, is the society
I’m from a developing nation and I get where you are coming from. Governments should put measures in place to “encourage” reproduction, whether it be financially or otherwise. However, individuals could still not reproduce despite the government’s efforts as their lives are comfortable as they are and may see offspring as a burden.
@@6.3westerndistrict Earth does not need more people
@@theelite8196 and it never will.
@@6.3westerndistrict good
China is among the countries with the most skewed sex ratio at birth, according to a recent Pew Research Center study of UN data. In fact, China accounted for 51% of the world’s “missing” females between 1970 and 2020, due to sex-selective abortion or neglect, according to a 2020 UN report.
While China continues to have a skewed sex ratio at birth - 112 male births per 100 female births, as of 2021 - this is down slightly from a high of 118 male births per 100 female births between 2002 and 2008. Still, as of 2021, China had a huge overall sex imbalance of around 30 million more men than women
It's absolutely remarkable how 99% of places have a 50/50 split for male/female. The 1% with far more male than female, it saddens me to believe that maybe so many were never even given a chance to live... If that isn't the case, then what is?
He said in the video that those countries are because of large migrant worker populations
On average, the natural ratio of male to female births is 104 to 100, but the male death rate is higher from infancy. In the past Asian countries skewed the ratio by female infanticide by the poor during desperate times and giving boys better care.
I had hoped to see more "world power" pyramids - USA, Russia, Europe, etc
There are too many variables to consider when predicting future populations in the various countries. Climate change being the main one. I do believe unless world population growth is checked, due to drought conditions around the world, agricultural production will be insufficient to feed everyone, and millions and millions will die of starvation. Great parts of the world will become uninhabitable, leading to massive dislocation of populations, and armed conflict will ensue, leading to the death of milllions more. Those countries with nuclear weapons will be using them, I am afraid to say.
agricultural production could be greatly expanded with enough incentive (probably enough to feed about 40 billion without technological improvement), as most of it nowadays is in the form of space and water inefficient (but manpower efficient) cattle breeding or cereal monocultures
though that would drive food prices up which would be a problem in developping countries
the main concern though is clean water, as water treatment is expensive and some of the world's most rapidly growing populations live in aridifying regions
@@yjlom On what planet do you live to think there is enough water to serve the needs of 40 billion people? And what do we need 40 billion people for? So that on any one time 10 billion are in bed fucking, doing their best to bring forth another 5 billion people into the world. We will never get to having 40 billion people flushing the toilet half a dozen times a day because the planet won't have enough water. Unless of course, in a reverse of evolution, we develop gills and return to the oceans.
How about you Do the " Real Science " facts and learn that " Climate Change " iz a big Lie.
Pleaze read up, on Patrick Moore, Lord Christopher Moncton, ( diceased ) Australian Prof Bob Carter Writings, books.
Back in 1963 , my yr 9, Our countrys Leader came to our school, and Said what the ( idiot Professors) at Englands Cambridge University Worldly quoted, ....That in the year 2000, the World will start to be in a New " ice age. LIES, that turned out to be. Those same Professors changed their tune , to Global Warming, To receive British Government Funding,and salary pay increase, grants. Calling themselves, iPCC.
more to their and " Greenies Lies iz the fact , that if you take CO2 out of the atmosphere, the Worlds trees and plant life , Will die. Our Oxygen levels will plummet, We will slowly perish, and Die too.
That REAL SCIENCE, iz part and Parcel to " Photo Synthesis".
PLEASE READ UP , THE TRUTH ,On the Climate. Ask the Sailors , Seaman of the world. They know the Weather. Lastly , the Oceans are NOT rising, thats " Techtonic platte" movement in the Earths Crust.
in the Northern Hemisphere Spring, summer, the ice Cap iz Supposed to melt. Just az you put an ice cube on yor table. The opposite happens at the South Pole. Freezing again. THE PENGUINS WILL TELL YOU.
Good luck.
@@yjlom There is always desalination, if there are less people. Say 400 million, I think we have more than enough resources to desalinate water for 400 million people relying on renewables alone.
@@1mol831
Except those 400 million people won't be able sustain the same living standards for long as the infrastructure breaks down and they are forced to pay for a billion old people.
I expect global warning will force a lot of people to move from warmer regions. We should expect 3 degrees warmer climate on average in 2100 and 6 degrees warmer in 2200. Nobody knows how long the temperatures will increase at it’s current speed.
Where did you get these from? China looks suspiciously symmetric, considering the preference for male offspring during the one child policy.
that has been propaganda
The problem with population growth projections is that...its a projection based on uncertain data that is liable to change year on year.
It seems like the demographic projections going into the future are optimistic.
Strange, my interpretation is a future with huge conflicts as hordes of poor people from Africa and part of the greater Middle East will invade the rich countries, especially Europe, with their falling populations. Europe will collapse and will return to some kind of the dark Middle Ages after the fall of Rome. This process started a few decades ago and will accelerate.
A good point of comparison would be Canada, with it's low birthrate and heavy immigration together allowing public policy to determine population growth rate.
8:22 Geography Bible raps!
"you can clearly see the huge amount of babies being born"
*Beat skips*
"Children under the age of 4"
Imagine if he did his entire vids like this
Rap is shit, know this
Some don’t look anything like pyramids but I understand where they got the name.
I was hoping to see the Soviet Union's pyramid. During WWII they lost most of their military age male population which skews their demographics to this day.
How different do you think the demographic would have been if Russia didn't lose so many in ww2?
what about Russia? it is pretty much the same as USSR in this very regard
@@nightraven2975 It would probably be slightly better because 30 million men died and those men most likely would have had multiple children and their children most likely would have had multiple children
My critique is these projections assume a pretty static society, that countries like Japan and Italy, will try to maintain the order of things, and therefore keep the column like look of their population graph. This does not predict any sort of baby boom or deurbanization that might occur that would also increase birth rates. Of course no one can really predict those sorts of things.
WELL, JAPAN DO NOT AALLOW IMMAGRATION, AND WHO WANTS TO MOVE TO CHINA, AMERICA WAS STARTED WITH IMMAGRATION AND WILL DEPEND ON IT FOR THE FUTURE, SOON GREEN CARDS TO BE GIVEN TO ALL THE BOARDER CROSSERS SO THAT THEY CAN WORK AND PAY TAXES TO SUPPORT ALL THE AMERICANS NOW RETIRING AT THE RATE OF 10 THOUSAND PER DAY
Yeah, more older people than younger people is a problem but we also can't just pop out more and more and more babies with every generation, what about overpopulation? oO
Any birth rate below 2.1 would cause demographics to shrink every generation
We can kill elders though, so at least those good people still making babies won't have to tolerate burden of ilks of you who have just contributed to their mayhem.
The most warped population pyramid was the USSR. WW2 made the pyramid look like a pear in that period.
This was super cool!
U forgor India
Really
I see that your future projections for longevity are universally increasing. And yet this population characteristic is one of the hardest to achieve. Is this just hopefulness, or are you deliberately concluding no wars, famine, or pandemics?
Everyone I know that has visited Japan recently loves it. Maybe it's not so bad to have this happing?
Nice video but I hate people quoting that from Elon Musk. He isn't educated in this area and would do well to not spread potentially harmful opinions that are not based on facts. I suppose I could say I have a reasonable knowledge of this subject having a background in biology and sustainable development and having done projects specifically on this issue, so will just throw my thoughts out there. The reality is that as a planet we are insanely overpopulated and the population is still growing, not decreasing when we take into account every country. Every single issue we face as a global society, from climate change, to resource depletion, how we're going to feed ourselves, energy, biodiversity loss and even a lack of jobs and violence, would be far easier to deal with if we had less people. The population MUST come down. We either do this willingly or nature will do it for us with disease and starvation. The demographic problems in regards how to deal with an aging population are obvious but we should be looking at ways to deal with them and make the transistion to a stable, smaller population as painless as possible, not ignoring the future consequences of billions of people on this tiny planet for short term benefits.
If we had less people in the world, individuals would have more access to their share of the world's resources, land, food, 'money', there would be more to go around and regular people would have a better quality of life. We see this after catastrophes like the black death in Europe that killed 1/3rd of the population. Life for the survivors was good, people were richer, their labour was more valued because it was a rarer commodity. This of course was not appreciated by the social elite who could no longer force competition for cheap labour and could no longer pay people pennies as the labour of the poor was now a rarer commodity and therefore more valueable. Employers had to compete for workers, not the other way around. People could pick and choose jobs, they could work less hours etc. Having a billionaire like Elon Musk claim he wants more people in the world feels quite ammusing in this context.
Population reduction is good for the planet. 🌎
How are countries like Japan suppose to not collapse?
@@baronvonjo1929 they won't they are going to collapse
Not for the west
African population reduction would be good for the planet
But we still need western engineers
@5:55 "when you look at a graphic like this, you can completely understand where he's coming from". NO. A graphic does not explain how a country/planet will adapt to changing demographics.
While I agree with Musk's view on the decreasing population, citing him is still cringe. There are so many other people who study the field that could be mentioned. Not that emerald rich, union busting, vaporware spewing guy.
I think decreasing population, for now, is a result of natural overshoot of carrying capacity. In the future it will be from falling carrying capacity due to climate change and resource depletion. In either case, the declining populations itself is not the fundamental problem. You can’t cheat your way to shoring up a population, so it’s better to dedicate those resources to other tasks. Just ask Japan.
The best thing that could happen for life on this planet would be a shrinking humanity.
I also find it fascinating how the world evolved to a point where pronoucing a world country properly is problematic, so it is rather pronounced wrong with J in the middle with French accent not to cause any controversy..
Niger is a French-speaking country, so the pronunciation with the French accent is appropriate.
Well, in todays world the graph is going to be wild^^ How do you fit 174 genders in one pyramid?^^
This is a good video but the future projections can quickly change based on changing immigration rates. Also if you look at UN population projections they keep on getting it wrong and always underestimate population growth. It hard to predict the future and if you remove assumptions and simply use the rear vision mirror, so to speak, population growth will continue well beyond the current UN projected max population level.
WELL, ASK YOUR FRIENDS, HOW MANY CHILDREN ARE YOU OR DO YOU HAVE, IF NOT THREE, THEN THE POPULATION IN THE USA WILL BE GING DOWN, SAME ALL OVER THE WORLD,
First
some of asian countries like Japan, South Korea,Singapore are struggling with population declining.
The demographic chart of Kuwait seems to also include migrant workers which explains its eschewed direction towards males in the 30s. If you remove the temporary migration workers, it should look more like a pyramid.
You can predict the end now.....
China’s birth rate
2016-1.77
2017-1.81
2018-1.55
2019-1.50
2020-1.28
The average drop is .17. If you divide 1.28 by .17 you get 7.6 years until they reach zero birth rate
I've done the Americas now and not many will make it passed 2100
No point in China figures, bec they Clearly are fabricated. 1 Child policy 1980-2018, means 0.95 AT BEST.. Their Figures are 1.3-1.5. Are We expected to believe that BS
If the end point is a tall uniform distribution, then there will be a labour shortage.
Those that work will make a lot of money, but also support thier parents and grandparents.
Can a govt provide for people, maybe..
Will families support themselves vertically, yes.
Declining population is actually good. Less people living in cities with infrastructure for many more is a great thing.
When talking about the lowest bar on the population pyramid, you should say,
"children 4 and under"
and not,
"children under the age of 4"
Alternatively, you could say,
"children under the age of 5"
We'll go from an overcrowded planet to deserted one lol
Your info concerning China is very out of date. The recent large scale leak of their census data is pointing at their pop halving by 2050 if not sooner. That would put them in 650 - 700 million range.
I (an Italian) thinking: "Damn it, I'm sorry for Japan, they're in really bad shape"
Always me 3 minutes later: "oh fuck"
What about the Americas, North America would be an interesting one, with The US, Canada and Mexico having very different demographics, because of emigration aging affecting all 3 countries in one way or another.
These projections are like taking stock market data and asking Excel to do a forecast.
5:51 This doesn't make sense, sure Italy halves in size but the next one, west-Africa, gains one billion people. That's over 17 Italy's, seems like there will be plenty of people
I'm dubious about long-term projections.
Also, we should point out the advantages of older populations and fewer people.
You're violating the license of the website providing the graphs by not attributing them.... And it's just not very nice.