US Offshore Wind Dead in the Water?
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- Опубликовано: 13 сен 2024
- The recent cancellation of two large wind projects in New Jersey are the latest in a series of setbacks for the nascent US offshore wind industry. Mark Nelson joins me to analyze whether the nuclear industry is vulnerable to the same cost drivers plaguing this sector.
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"We want to build nuclear" Love it!
“Fan favorite” HEAR HEAR !! Oblique observation here: in the years I’ve been following you, your likes, views, and comments have seen a still small, and sharp upward trend. May this continue. After listening to a number of explanations from this Renaissance Man, I now understand that he carries the credibility earned through unshakable integrity, and has earned the trust accorded to the closest family. He is careful to balance the direct topic information with the appropriate context to place the topic in a proper perspective. Extraordinary bright spot in the universe, and thank you @Decouple Media [Dr. Keefer] for providing a ready platform.
Left moustache is Otto from a Fish called Wanda, while on the right possibly have CJ Honeycutt from MASH.
A Mark Nelson nuclear power book? I’m going to put my order in right now ;-)
I hope you realize the importance of your 2015 France in German electricity chart to the change in peoples attitudes towards nuclear power and renewables . I printed that chart and follow on charts and 2‘ x 3‘ foam board. Talk about a photo equaling 1000 words, those charts are worth 10,000.
I am also looking forward to Mark Nelson's book.
wow Kudos to mustache-maestros this is best energy video I've seen.
I wonder how many young people enamored with “renewable “ energy understand how much fossil fuels are used in solar and wind energy or that in 20 years it will need to be replaced.
Very few I'm certain.
Well, the other question would be how many policymakers are actually knowledgeable about renewables, and I would say that the majority of the policymakers and people don't go beyond keywords like "green", "eco friendly", and "renewable".
@@computron5824 A great many of them go all googly-eyed about the words green and renewable. Others seem to have an absolute religious belief that only those efforts currently labeled green and renewable will save the planet.
In neither case do they appear to ever think. They become what Dietrich Bonhoeffer called stupid. And as he explained, such people are the most dangerous sort.
Thanks mark and chris for all your hard work
THE MUSTACHE TWINS ARE BACK! YES!
Thanks for the talk, was great
Excellent discussion, and many thanks for showing that pro-nuclear smart people aren’t anti-VRE, unlike the common and stupid narrative.
The only purpose of wind and solar is to create permanent-blackout. They need to be banned everywhere.
The amount of beautiful farmland that has been DESTROYED in my area, and now filled with countless ugly, inefficient solar panels is maddening.
Entire horizons that were once beautiful valley vistas of rolling hills are now just seas of hideous black glass.
I celebrate every time one of these trendy, “green” money grab projects falls through.
35:40 regarding the whales not hearing the noise, that is actually irrelevant. we can't perceive some frequencies but physically we get negative side effects
These kinds of offshore wind projects are similar to nuclear in that all of the cost is upfront while the fuel costs are free/near free. The difference of course is the quality of the product. It looks like coal will remain King (Globally) until nuclear can compete on up-front capital costs. No high-pressure/low-temperature reactor is capable of that.
ok, let's vote. Who has the best mustache?
You are missing the important point about US offshore wind: Lots of capacity was planned to be built *at the same time*, with requirements for union organized labour with local supply chain that did not exist.
These projects had been fine without the requirement of local supply chain or if the projects had been allowed to be built over a longer period.
A ridiculously expensive system when compared with Indonesia's 8×500MWe ThorCon liquid metal Thorium ion molten sodium berilium fluoride salt burner energy converters (TMSR) at a levelised pre-profit cost of less than $30 per MegaWatt.hour (
😢How about a RUclips analysis on the ThorCon TMSR?
China offer fixed price feed-in tariff for solar, wind and nuclear. It is very transparent and easy to plan for, when you invest in new generation. But it is not great rates, like you get many places in Europe and the US,
They still build like crazy,
You guys can go to the County Fair and give Mustache Rides!!!
😅😆😂🤣
Lava ridge project in Idaho is being opposed unanimously.
16:30 was it Sam Richards S/E ADVISOR to Boris Johnson, ie the one that didn't get it.... that was insisting that, more is better 😂 even when there is no source for them to rotate. 😂
Thank you for uploading and sharing?
Correct with bad karma. They are being cancelled for similar reasons to nuclear.
The twins are back!
I am a fan of wind and solar because I see them as a glide path down to a future that looks a lot more like the 17th century than star trek. All energy sources being talked about in the transition are really fossil fuel extenders. Wind, solar and nuclear are impossible without them. Im a farmer in Ireland and recently applied to plant a hectare with trees. I got back a 70 page legal document. It till take a year plus legal fees to complete it - to plant trees. The West has become weighed down and impotent from bureaucracy and is no longer capable of building infrastructure. Widespread nuclear seems impossible when we cant even plant trees. At least w&s provides a slightly softer landing spot than nothing.
I think you're onto something there. World population was estimated at 600,000 - 680,000. That's the numbers they're aiming for.
Trees. Those self-contained carbon capture units that produce oxygen at night time. The real problem with trees is they don't make from them.
Interest rates go up because of inflation, not the other way around. If interest rates going up are what it takes to “kill” irrational unreliable energy projects, be it! CO2 is not a problem, it is what plants need to grow. The problem is lack of reliable cheap energy. Nuclear and natural gas have low emissions, are reliable and ultimately are affordable.
Really surprised that Mr Nelson is so enamored with the Inflation Reduction Act. I encourage you and all to check out The Power Hungry Podcast: Travis Fisher.
Inflation reduction act….Only career politicians could come up with that name.
@@peredavi💯
Super long post but I feel this episode is factually inaccurate and sadly it makes me wonder about a lot of other topics covered in the podcast.
First of all, thank Mark to start off by calling people not to celebrate the failure of these projects. Thousands of hours have gone into these projects and it is very sad to see them canned, I would be similarly disappointed with any cancelation of any nuclear project.
Also, to provide some context, I have worked in some of these offshore wind projects that have been canned in the US as well as others around the world. However, I would like to give some information as I feel Mark’s commentary is factually inaccurate.
04:53 The Eastern Seaboard is not more difficult to build offshore wind because of high seas and currents. Currents are much stronger in Taiwan and yet we build there, sea states are way worse in the North Sea than in Mid-atlantic and pretty similar or better than on the North East Cast. The main site specific difficulties I have seen in the East Coast is deeper water depths and presence of some minerals in the soil that can impede certain types of foundations to be feasible. And to be fair, we have the same conditions in the North Sea but they have not been built yet as there are better locations yet to be utilised.
6:00 The inflation reduction act makes some projects still feasible such as Revolution Wind, as it still qualifies for the 40% tax credit. Ocean Wind qualified for a much lower tax credit, lower than 20%. All public information taken from their investors calls.
6:40 Don’t feel, look it up Mark, it is public information. Sunrise Wind signed a PPA of $110/MWh in 2019. It is asking now for a $140/MWh to make the business case viable. BP and Equinor are asking for $160/MWh and $177/MWh, as they have more complex and less mature projects.
8:50 So, Vogtle is coming at around $150-200/MWh with the cost of capital of 5-10 years ago? How much would it cost you with the current interest rates? That is the only way to make a fair comparison.
11:00 Not all the development costs are sunk costs, the lease area, permitting, components, etc are still very valuable and can be reused in the future.
12:00 A lot of nuclear power plants are completed because of the public administrations are usually knees deep committed into them directly or indirectly and stopping them would be a disaster from a political point of view. In Olkiluoto Areva accumulated losses of €5.5 billion, AREVA would be ultimately dismembered and sold off to EDF (bailed out last year) and other publicly owned French companies.
13:00 No bids were submitted in the UK this year, as the CfD price cap for offshore wind was at 44GBP/MWh. However for onshore wind it was at 55GBP/MWh which resulted in projects being awarded. The last nuclear project to get a CfD was Hinkley Point C at 92GBP/MWh, in 2016 mind you, when capital was dirt cheap. These are all 2012 prices, as the UK uses them for their to compare apples to apples. Adjust for inflation and convert them to USD if you want to compare.
13.45 The Jones Act is from the 1920s if I recall correctly, and yes, it is a major issue for getting vessels adding limiting our logistic setups greatly.
Other huge problems that add unnecessary risk particular to the US are:
1. Permitting, as in the US you need to get permitting after winning a project, unlike in Europe, where you can secure it beforehand.
2. NIMBYism and moronic concerns with lobbyists forcing us into coming up with inefficient turbine layouts.
3. Extremely high cost of labor, not matched with the competency, which explains why building infrastructure in the US has become impossibly expensive.
16:00 You are right, the industry and governments should have stopped misleading consumers that renewables will always get cheaper… but so is every other form of energy.
24:30 WTF, the snarky remark about Spanish engineering from Gamesa being inferior is way out of line and a lie. The SGRE issues are on their 4.x and 5.x platforms which have been manufactured way after the take over by Siemens and most of the suppliers of the affected parts (bearings) are Chinese, Japanese, Swiss and German. So please, a bit of more of professionalism would be appropriate here.
27:00 Offshore Wind supply chain is based in Europe mostly. Transport from APAC can be very expensive and only makes sense for some structural elements.
35:00 On the whales we will have to see, we have spent millions on active and passive monitoring systems to avoid collisions, imposed speed restriction no other vessels abide by on the Easter Seaboard. So far there is no proof of Offshore Wind causing an increase of deaths but as you say we have to err on the side of caution.
As I see it wind goes for twenty years Max before need to be replaced , nuclear last up to sixty years.
High money rates don’t fully explain this wholesale cancellation of E coast wind, given the nuclear record. WNA shows 60 reactors underway globally. They’re not all falling apart and cancelled.
Here’s what does explain it, w a little hand waiving indulgence. The US relevant US states and federal govt and connected special interests wanted existing nuclear closed, new nuclear blocked, new gas built. How to pull this off? Promise enormous offshore wind, real soon now, and play games w the price. Oh, fast and deep offshore currents, heavy seas, Atlantic hurricanes? Never heard of them, wind is cheap, real soon now.
Result: gas was build like crazy, Indian Point gone, total of 6 offshore commercial turbines in US waters.
Cmon, this is nonsense. It’s a special interest problem driven by fossil and land based RE thugs.
Is there much concern over the vulnerability of undersea interconnects after Nordstream got blown up?
Does NATO have the right to retaliate collectively if another country harms its interests/attacks it’s infrastructure? Even when it’s a NATO country attacking another NATO country??😂
Interesting to see that the speaker is seemingly unaware that Professors Happer and van Wijngaarden of Princeton Universoty have demonstrably disproven any link between carbon dioxide and ‘global warming’ (as if it has ever been responsible 😂): ruclips.net/video/CqWv26PXqz0/видео.htmlsi=aYUD20sDGWnrbyTX
Whenever he was talking about the whales, he keeps saying these beautiful animals that are so beautiful and wonderful and loving, and timid, that need protection... blaj blah blah, You can tell he has an opinion, and has experience with bullcrapping people without telling you hes bullcrapping people
$180/MWh is 3x what will fly, long term.
The UK North Sea, is Not calm or like a boating lake. It is one of the most inhospitable pieces of ocean in the world. With Force 10 Winds, and Massive waves that would toss a battleship about like a cork. Special techniques had to be developed, for Oil drilling in the North sea, precisely because it is so inhospitable. Wind Turbines are Not placed there because they would be completely inaccessible for very large swathes of the year, due to danger to life weather. Most UK Turbines are placed in relatively shallow sea water within sight of the UK coast for this very reason...ruclips.net/video/AvxFzD2rZv4/видео.html
Dogger Bank A is currently (Nov 2023) being built in the UK some of the turbines are already live and producing, the rest of the turbines are being installed as we speak
The strike price was £39.65 inflation linked. Converted to 2023 prices that wind farm is going to produce for £45.50 and by comparison the UK wholesale price this year has been £97.38
So that wind farm will be producing energy at less than half the current wholesale price
Regarding the recent Failed UK auction for offshore wind. Yes it failed becuase there was a cap of just £44/MWh which indexed to 2023 = £60.30 by comparison the UK nukes are subsidised to £127/MWh
That is a bit illogical considering current wholesale prices are £97/MWh in the UK
So the government wanted a deep discount vs Nat Gas fired energy they thought the wind industry could deliver so capped the auctions. They should have set the cap at £90 rather than £60.30 amd they would have gotten bids most likely
How much when there is no wind? If offered 3 times market price on still days can they provide juice? Or do you need a backup system on such days
@@edsteadham4085 I'm not sure what you mean. They are getting just under £40 per MWh (index linked to 2012 prices) for the production for the wind farms. If they produce nothing they get nothing
The UK is one of the best locations in the world for offshore wind power. We have multiple Seas around us
North Sea
English Channel
Celtic Sea
Atlantic
While it can be windy in all locations at once that is pretty rare
For example if you look at the wind map for today 8.40pm monday 6th Nov. You can see its very very windy in the English sector of the North Sea and not windy at all in the Scottish and Norway Sector of the North Sea. So if we had lots and lots of wind farms on a day like today we would export to Scotland and Norway. And on some other days the opposite is true
Wind power can provide 80% of our annual needs (for electricity) with imports and or Natural Gas filling in the rest
I am aware this is a very special case and most of the world doesn't have such good wind resources but for the UK it makes sense
@@edsteadham4085 The UK backup system is our existing fleet of Natural Gas Fired power stations
CCGTs are cheap enough to work fine to fill in the gaps. We don't need batteries or pumped storage on a large scale we will just accept ~10% of our eletricity will be from using gap to fill on the gaps
The world isn't dogmatic like online discussion forums. France Gas Coal Gas and Oil power stations to fill in some gaps but it's 95% Nuclear and hydro. The UK will be 90% Wind Solar Hydro and Imports of wind/solar/hydro
You can talk about system costs until the cows come home, if you don’t talk about the market and regulations such as CFD, you have a problem.
These whales have been absolutely decimated by whaling and boat traffic over the last couple centuries
And now the turbines are another problem
The most ironic part of Wind in Euorpe (and I like wind in the right locations) is the massive wind fleet in France which just curtails their nuclear fleet
That is to say 1 unit of wind in France basiclaly just curtails 1 unit of Nuclear. It is absurd. Ridiculous
What's more absurd is they don't seem to care and have plans to build even more wind and solar which will just curtail their nukes more until they become less and less economic and effective
Maybe it's intentional to displace nuclear wirh solar and wind but they'll need to build some 60 large gas fired stations if they want to do that
Nuclear have been curtailing itself in France long before renewables were a thing. Now they just need to compete with other emissions free sources.
@@dankspain If you want that type of competition you'll quickly find that the nation will have to offer a capacity market (like in the UK) and you'll find this results in paying twice
Once for the wind power
Secondly payong full price for the nuclear to fill in the gaps for when the wind isn't blowing
Install so much wind that your nuclear output is half. Fine. But you'll pay twice as much for the nuclear output for when the wind isn't blowing
You'll effectively spend €50 billion Euro (the apprpx cost of the silar and wind in France) for no net gain at all
How much has fossil fuel burn for the grid gone down vs 10 years ago in France??? None. So you spent €50 billion on solar and wind to reduce fossil fuel useae by...nothing
That €50 billion has just reduced nuclear fuel tiny amount probably less than €0.5 billion
They realized that uranium in reactor cores is the world's cheapest battery storage. 😂
@@kaya051285 If that solar and wind are replacing nuclear then you have reduced emissions because the other option left is fossil fuels.
@dankspain what?? The wind and solar fleet in France isn't displacing fossil fuels. it's displacing nuclear output
Arguably, it's increasing fossil fuel useage as fewer people will switch to electrical heating as the more expensive eletricity (from spending and building €100? billion in needless solar and wind would have resulted in electricity being more expensive as that $100 billion plus interest needs to be paid for) will mean on the margin more people keep gas-fired heating
It would have been far more wise to simply spend that €100 billion on insulating old homes and installing heat pumps
€100 billion Euro could probably have installed nearly 10 million heat pumps taking 10 million has boilers out of useage
There are ways to make North Sea offshore wind cheaper if all the stake holders work together
For example the UK built recently in 2021 a 1.4GW HVDC link to Norway. About one third of the cost of offshore wind power is the transmission costs to take that power onshore
So you could site 2 x 1.4GW offshore wind farm anywhere along that existing link and you'd basically have close to zero transmission cost as you would be using an existing link
Well not zero but let's say 25% less cost
One more links to Norway to UK are likely in the future. That means as much as 5.6GW of offshore wind could be deployed along these two links at even cheaper prices
A lot of Europe is interconnecting via HVDC links. Going forward many offshore wind farms will do as I described above reducing the cost somewhat
Wind doesn't make sense everywhere. But the North Sea is very likely going to be one of the areas on the planet which once built out produces vast vast quantities of energy for centuries to come
I wasn’t aware of any wind tech that actually lasted beyond decades, let alone centuries.
@@microburnThis is quite interesting
*****Five 550 kW WindWorld turbines, installed in 1998, off the coast of the island of Gotland, Sweden were re-commissioned in 2018, after undergoing an extensive technological and mechanical upgrade by Momentum Gruppen. The project included the replacement of nacelles, blades, and control systems using newly refurbished parts from five Vestas V47-600 kW. The towers, the foundations, and the subsea cables all passed an extensive durability test. The result was that the turbine’s lifetime was extended by 15 years, and the expected yearly output was doubled from ca. 5,000 MWh to ca. 11,000 MWh.*****
Offshore wind is going to be like nuclear with potentiality multiple life extensions that add decades and decades
Design for 30 year 'life'
The refurbish and extend for another 15
Then refurbish and extend for another 15 years
The refurbish and extend for another 15 years......
You can probably design the tower and foundations and transmission and distribution to last multi hundred years. The rest youd refurbish/repalace every 15 years at a fraction of the cost as you're only repalcing a fraction of the parts that make up the system
Offshore wind is going to be a lot like hydropower. If you have good wind resources once developed, it'll just keep on going and have a quasi infinite life imo
@@microburn apparently this one has been going for over a thousand years 😄
ruclips.net/video/3qqifEdqf5g/видео.htmlsi=xbrh33acITezo50N
I'm sure the citizens of Norway will be glad to be even more exposed to regional electricity prices so that nearby irresponsible nations that didn't plan for their energy futures will be able to drive up their electricity costs. 🙄
No way there will be one single cable more from Norway
It may end with reduced capacity in existing cables
Norwegians is ok selling our exess power, but not give it away when we need it ourself!
Big turbine fail ,due to poor design. Touch wind and omega have cheaper designs
the duo with matching crappy moustaches
Rude, it’s cool ❤
They're pretty good mustaches