Basic strategy narrows the house edge to 50.5% so playing basic strategy without counting will leave you losing in the long run. Your bet progression and other things that you mentioned do not change the basic strategy odds, but they might make it a more enjoyable game for a person, giving a false sense of control etc. If a person plays 300 hands (about 4 shoes of 6 decks) with your bet progression (or any other betting methodology) and they only rely on basic strategy and are not counting, AND if they play the basic strategy perfectly, they will enter the casino with $100 in their pocket and leave with $71 in their pocket. That is a $29 loss on average. With variance, which will happen, they will have nights that they win a lot of money and they will have nights where they loose everything. They will remember and talk about the wins and they will forget and not discuss the losses. That is what your friend that has been doing this for 3-4 years is doing - IF he plays PERFECT basic strategy. Your approach is fine if people want to play BJ for entertainment and are fine paying for it but in the long run they will lose money.
So your saying the house has an edge of .5% over a person. Id say thats a pretty good start to getting lucky and perhaps gaining an edge if luck happens. I like the 15 min cut off rule, period win or lose
To clarify, I never said avoid a hot table for the players. I said avoid a table where the DEALER is hot, making every hand, not busting, pulling 20 on every hand, etc. LISTEN! I don't know why but many times a table stays hot (for the dealer) all day long. I've seen it many times. All I know is that the longer you play, the better the house's chance of whittling you down slowly but surely, using that 2.5% advantage. Get out quick with your profit if you can. Use the basic strategy table (i.e. play by the book). You cannot play this game by hunches and win in the long run. It's a game of mathematics and probabilities. The casino has several major advantages: greed and revenge--2 emotions that plague most players. Greed---most players will not be satisfied with a small or moderate win of a few hundred dollars. If they are up $200, they try to run it up to a $500 win, $1,000 into $2,000, etc. They continue to play and ultimately walk out with nothing as the lucky streak ends. Revenge--most of use get pissed off when we lose right off the bat, say you lose your first 6 bets at a table. Instead of calling it a day and coming back tomorrow, they go to the ATM to get more $ and try to recoup that loss. But, they wind up losing more $ many times, digging a deeper hole. Have a definite limit on how much you can lose in a session and stick to it. The object of the game is not to see how many trips you can make to the ATM. Also, don't play with drunks or amateurs not using basic strategy. They will mess you up. These players are more likely to be found on the weekends.
What other players do at the table has no effect whatsoever in if you will win the hand or not. You can have the worst player in the world or the best player in the world and nothing will change. Someone could play horribly and help the dealer bust or if that someone was before you and took a high card when you needed a low card and then on your turn you got a low card when the other person was suppose to stay and took that high card and saved you from busting. And then you can play with the best players in the world but when its your turn you keep busting hands or never making your cards and the dealer never busts then what? Just bad luck? It's so easy to blame someone when something doesnt go your way if they played wrong but why not blame them too if they played right but didnt work out in your favor?
The point is that you as a player is facing the dealer. It's not a team that is facing the dealer. And it's not other player that is facing you. Blackjack is not a team game at all period. What other people do have no impact on the odds of your game at blackjack. I played with many good and bad players at the blackjack table. And TBh it doesn't really matter how they play. One time I played with a very good blackjack player at the table and I still lost all my $. But I wasn't mad at him cuz i knew that how he played had nothing to do with me.
well said on the $ desire.....sometimes i'm up $300 and it's early ish into my session...that's a good win for me...if I keep playing, it'll likely go down....even negative....i'm working on hitting my # and getting out for the day....
Great Steve! I always like it when people beat the house. One of the hardest things to do is to quit when you are up. If you are lucky enough to triple your stake or more, quit and be happy. Getting greedy and staying too long is an easy trap to fall into and will kill you.
16v10 is dependent on the count. I hit 16 vs. T as long as the pure is the pure count is around 0.5 or lower. Furthermore if you plan on staying 16 vs Ten then you are banking for the dealer to have 2-6 to have a chance of winning which is the same 5/13 odds and really 5/12 since there was no blackjack (ace) or on the irrelevancy of your play within' their blackjack.
Observation: when they switch out the cards for new decks, usually 4-5 in the morning, the dealer fans out the cards, one deck at a time, on the table, face down. They look for any defects and count the cards, but you never see them face up. How do we, the players know that there really are 128 face cards in the 8 decks? If you ask them to show the cards face up, they won't do it. How does the dealer know? There should be 16 face cards in each deck (10, Jack, Queen, King). If Indian casinos are not audited by the states and have their own gaming commissions, who is to say that they are not taking 10s out of the deck? With less face cards and more smaller value cards, the advantage goes to the dealer, since they hit more often than we do and have a better chance of making a hand and not busting. For example, they must always hit on 16, whereas sometimes we do and sometimes we don't. Obviously, this would be "illegal", but if no one is checking, the temptation is there. Any thoughts?
In the telephone betting system, your first bet at the table is 2 units? But anytime you lose during 2,1,2,3,4,5, you bet 1 unit? And if you win that 1 unit you go back to the telephone system of 2,1,2,3,4,5? So you bet 1 unit after a loss within 2,1,2,3,4,5?
This is absolutely correct, John. The same thing can be said of the mechanical shufflers too. Who is to say they are making sure that the 10 value cards are AFTER the cut card in the shoe? It's the same thing as removing them entirely, correct? Let's say that the machine shufflers put an above average number of 10-value cards in the middle of the shoe. By default, most players cut the shoe in the middle, correct? Now, the dealer places the front half of the cut to the back and puts the cut card in about a deck's worth from the end. Now, there are a higher than average amount of 10-value cards that are no longer in play - thus, giving the House a HUGE advantage! Even the removal of just a single 10-value card can make a big difference! This is why players should cut the shoe more towards the front or the back, instead of the middle. "Cut thin to win."Alternately, instead of removing high cards, adding additional low-value cards (particularly fives and sixes) can also be devastating to the player. It would make sense for a casino to take out 10-value cards and add in the low-value cards in their place. Since they aren't turning up cards when they switch out decks, they could easily count them (face down) to still show you that the right NUMBER of cards are still there, all the while still giving themselves a massive advantage by not showing WHICH cards are actually there.The rub to all of this is that when I have observed deck switchouts, they are generally unwrapping the plastic from new decks. Are these decks already void of a few 10-value cards and addition low-value cards? It's definitely possible. Anyone can wrap plastic on decks of cards. I'm sure manufacturers will do anything you ask, so long as the price is right.Hand-shuffling is good advice, so long as they are not hand DEALT (holding the decks of cards). I don't know about you, but I don't like dealers dealing me seconds. Soooooo many of them do that too.Also, if you look at the, for example, Nevada State Gaming Commission's MICS (Minimum Internal Control Standards), they have absolutely nothing in place about checking the number and types of cards. Yes, they're definitely in bed with the casinos. Let's also not forget that dealers are now being trained to count cards. When the shoe is in the player's favor a certain distance into the shoe, they are instructed to shuffle. Many, many tricks out there that the casinos use against us and has been doing this for decades! These reasons are why I stay away from Blackjack entirely. Thoughts?
John LaRosa the shuffling machine is programmed to count cards. If there is any missing card, color or number it hit up the mistake with red light flushing. So, the machine itself guaranteed there are correct amount and values of all 8/6 decks.
Robert Reno you are wrong. The casino makes so much money off of people already they literally don't need to or care to cheat anyone. Almost no one follows basic strategy to a T and with every dumb players mistakes their advantage is astronomical. I agree it's ok to be skeptical but they seriously have no reason to do this
Hi John. Your video is apsolutely worth to see for everyone whose interesting on Black Jack. Your explanations easy to undestand, clear enough. Thanks for sharing your strategies.
I tried this system for my first time doing a 8 hour online turbo session combined using a negative recoup of loss system. I made $2,000 using $5 - $10 - $15 minimum bets with a positive progression bankroll 500, 1000, 1500 - 5-10-15. Ill be using 100x minimum wager from here out for bankroll management, but only with these two systems combined
I enjoyed the video, thanks for posting. I'm a pretty experienced player myself, & agree with most of your points. Especially where you recommend to quit after you're up. Personally my target is to leave the table with between 75-80% of my highest chip total. This allows me to ride that wave you discussed until it throws me off. I also agree with the telephone strategy for the most part, as its a progressive system which I also use. I don't regress my bet after a win, though I can understand why it's done. For me I start out flat betting until I win 2 hands in a row or are up 2 units by way of dd or sp, then start pressing a little after each win, going back to my original bet after finally losing a hand. I WILL regress my bet during the middle of a run, however, if any of the tables dynamics change...dealer change (burnt card) a new player comes in or an existing one leaves, or the shoe ends. I'm not superstitious, but this is one point I strongly stand behind as a blackjack player, going against a math guy who believes that every hand is a separate random event. Streaks do occur, & sometimes it seems you can't lose & are hitting every hand, which is the pinnacle of the game for all players I'm sure. I would also like to add one caveat to my progressive strategy. Once in a while when the table is hot, the dealer is busting & everyone is winning, I will "let it ride" & double my bet. This move increased my win rate exponentially. if I'm able to win that hand, my implied odds go thru the roof, since I'm going from maybe 2 units...2...3...4...5...6...7 etc to 2,2,3,4,8,10, etc. If I lose, no big deal, start over. Regarding basic strategy, ive studied many charts that have varying levels of aggression, & would like your opinion on these hands... 11 vs vs 10/picture...dd or not? Vs an A? Some charts advise to dd on 11 no matter what the up card is, some is a 2 pt rule & dd vs
Alin Lor That's what I was thinking, It's not whether you bust or not. It's the fact that hitting a 16 vs a 10 minimizes your chances to lose in the long run. Some of the advice here is not mathematically based in anything.
Can you list your source for the house having a 2.5% edge when you play correct basic strategy? Everything I have read or studied does NOT reflect this high a house edge with standard blackjack rules. Unless they are only paying 6-5 on BJ, which everyone should avoid like the plague. And as to comment about basic strategy omitting the cards being played upon the initial 4 cards being dealt, basic strategy, the correct one, takes into account all of the cards based upon the first three you have. Your initial two v the dealer's up card.
I go up to Port Richie on the Tropical Breeze to play BJ even though the Hard Rock is only 1/2 hour away from me. $5.00 tables there unlike the Hard Rock's $25.00. They hand shuffle 8 decks.
if the dealer has 3,4,5,6 im splitting tens or face cards! is that what you wanted to say? How people play or bet doesn't bother me what they say or how they act does!
You sir have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. Right from the start I knew you didn't have a clue when you claimed the MIT team developed basic Blackjack strategy
One problem with the basic strategy chart; it assumes you are being dealt from a fresh deck or decks every time. Never is this the case. In every game there is a minimum of four cards missing, three of which you can see and one burned card.
Nevertheless, it is still the best strategy to increase your odds ever invented. Not my invention, but from the whiz math kids at MIT in the 1970s, via a computer simulation of a million hands. If there is a better system out there, please let me know. Granted, you can't play a million hands in a session, and not everyone at your table will play perfect basic strategy, but you are still much better off than playing hunches.or winging it. You should ALWAYS play basic strategy, whether you come in at the beginning of a shoe or not.
+John LaRosa I do play that way but I memorize the cards that have been played before. For instance once I see most of the aces used up out of a shoe i get up and leave. When I see most of the fives dealt i double my bets. and I much of the time DD against a dealer's ace. After they ask for insurance they admit they don't have a ten. Thanks dealer, now I know you only have a one third chance of having a high card stead of 2/3's. The chances of them having a two is as high as a nine. As long as I make twenty I can still push, all other cards a win, assuming I get my ten. Show me another bet in vegas where you get to see both your cards and the one of the dealer's BEFORE you bet. Go ahead and do the math, you'll see the edge. BTW, the basic strategy chart was done back in the 50's. MIT just used it. They didn't invent it, they had no need, they just counted cards. I do them one better I memorize them. I use a little visual aid in my head, it comes from playing Bridge, I just put all the cards up in my mind and take them down as they are dealt. Kind of like the dummy hand in Bridge. I usually do the two deck shoe at Mandalay Bay but I can do it on six deck too at the Mirage. Mandalay Bay went to the auto shuffle so your way works best playing your basic strategy. Also an auto shuffler actually increases your odds that way. I already have proven my way right, I paid my Caltech tuition by playing my way after losing my scholarship.
It's great that you have a photographic memory. Most people don't. Where I play at the Hard Rock in Tampa, they have an 8 deck shoe, with an automatic card shuffler (not continuous shuffle). I prefer the tables where they hand shuffle. They have those too. Isn't it really difficult to keep track of all the cards dealt in an 8 deck shoe?
+John LaRosa The dealt cards. Look at the two in your hand and one showing of the dealers. So yes, and the burn card is missing but you'll never know which one so it does little good to speculate. If you see no tens you are already at plus one. What most programs forget to factor in is the cards showing. You can't do the math using 52 cards. You need to start with only 47 cards, subtracting the ones already dealt. BTW, I've done the math staying on 16 and only hitting on 15, the difference is almost non existent so if you if have a hunch on that number might as well play it. Your mind may be telling you something. Ever hear of doubling your bet after every loss? It works to a point. If you keep to your rules you can beat this game.
You stated a common fallacy about always assuming the dealer has a 10 as a down card. Fact, there is only a 4 in 13 chance that is true. So in fact, you're better off assuming the dealer does NOT have a 10 as a down card. This makes you wrong about splitting 8's against a 10 or A.
Likely Ken has never played a hand of BJ in his life. And certainly is not the brightest bulb on the ol' Yule Tree concerning things mathematical and statistical
I didn't hear the entire video yet....I don't know the language used... you would always assume dealer has a 10 VALUE card undernearth.. ten, jack, queen, king.... if 2 decks...4,4,4,4 x 2= 32 cards...
About hot vs cold tables, that really depends on how the players are playing. If they do really stupid things like staying on 12-16 (with two cards) against a dealer 7+, or not hitting soft 17s and 18s against dealer 7+, or not splitting 7s and 6s against dealer 3-6, then they aren't taking enough cards out of the shoe for you to make a decent prediction for how the rest of the shoe is going to be. If you can't see at least 8 cards at any given time on a table, do not play at that table. Nearly ALL of blackjack is about being able to make solid predictions and profiting off of them. That's really what card counting is all about, same with basic strats. In order to make those predictions, you need to see tons of cards.
Hey dumbass, how other players are playing makes not one whit of differnce as too your expectations. If you are thinking about such things at a BJ table you might as well stay away. The whole thing about seeing 8 cards is pure bunk. I am proficient at CC and I would rather be entirely by myself, seeing about 3 cards at once. It does not mater how the cards come out of the shoe, it matters whether you see all those cards and process that info accurately and correctly. You have never counted cards in your life altho you likely think you do.
The insurance bet.......why do you always assume dealer has ten on other hands....but with Ace up...only 30% probability of ten down....probability is the same no matter the up card...
Never play blackjack games the have a 2.5% house advantage. Never play 6-5 blackjack. Never play against a continuous shuffle machine. It makes no difference how other other players play their cards. It makes no difference whether the table was hot or cold in the past. None of this effects the house advantage. The house is effected by the rules of the game, and the conditions of the game, and how well you play. The house advantage is effected by the number of decks used and the deck penetration.
No, altho they don't hurt anything, betting systems and moneymanagement systems cannot work to reduce the house edge in any way. You will lose over the long term. Yes, you can win at the game by cardcounting. And typically they will bar you from playing, All these things he talks about in the vid is irrationality.
Because winning more than 2 in a row is difficult. This is the system created by George Pappadopoulos, book that I read entitled: Blackjack's Hidden Secrets, Win Without Counting. It came out in 1999. Get a copy by calling 609-653-3069
+Chris: My that was pure genius! I am sure people by the hundreds are heading for the casinos as we speak to implement that wondrous strategy! Fact is, +p schmidt certainly did, I saw him there! This is likely to bring down the house!
As a former dealer, the hand shuffle is ONLY good when the table is losing. the machine shufflers shuffle in a pattern. If the table is winning, it will continue to win for a while if you keep the same people playing the same way. The only thing this guy said that I agree with is you DONT always split 8's. Split them with a 2-7 showing. No need to double bet on a bad hand. Table flow is WAY more important than any system....remember that.
16 always surrenders against dealer 8 and above, right? Even with a pair of 8s? That's what I was thinking too. But if the house doesn't have a surrender option then you split 8s, right? Also I never know what to do with 7s. 14 just as stiff a hand as 16, but do you always split 7s too?
Soul of Joelsuf Splitting 7’s isn’t the same since hitting a 14 is easier than hitting a 16. Splitting 7’s against a dealers 8 or above isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but just remember, the dealers hole card is supposed to be assumed a 10 or face card. If you assume you’ll get two face cards with your split, you just doubled your bet against a dealer 18 with your two “17’s”. I’d hit it, take the loss and look for a better hand to play. The odds may tell you differently, but then again, those odds don’t work to your favor unless you play the same amount of simulated hands they do. Also, the average winning hand is 18.5. Hard to achieve when splitting 7’s. If surrender is an option, is spose you can consider that, but why give up without a fight? Why not mail a check to the casino and avoid the traffic. Play the hand, but use your head and use the strategy that best compliments your style and play time.
+Vomit: Wow, don't you really think the inventors of those very expensive machines simply made a machine which shuffles randomly? Secondly, if it is not shuffling randomly as you insist, why do you leap to the unsupported conclusion that that situation is aiding the house?? Thirdly, there is nothing in the handling of the cards by the dealer or the player which sorts the cards anyway, so it would not make one whit of difference whether the cards were shuffled at all. They are shuffled for the sake of the player and because sooner or later if they did not, shuffle trackers could begin to take advantage Table flow? (-;. Geez, do we really need to address such an idiotic concept? Gee wiz, genius, go to a basic strat chart online and see whether and when you should split 8s, for goshsake. This is the computer age, and there are no arguments about proper basic strat anymore. All in all, a quite irrational series of comments.
Also...people playing stupid doesn't effect the odds as well. So I disagree with you on that one. However playing around drunks is a bad idea. They get angry and don't know what they are doing.
If you don't like playing around drunks because they don't know what they are doing (i.e. playing right, basic strategy), then you just contradicted yourself. You said others playing stupid doesn't matter. It does. It doesn't affect the overall odds, true, but it does interrupt a good streak for the table.
I've seen many tables stay "hot" for the dealer all day long, or at least a couple hours "bro". Just my observation. Why play there when there are many other tables to choose from. Don't know why but it does happen.
Don't depend on hot or cold tables when playing blackjack. Staying away from a cold table does jack squat to gain an edge. It happens SOMETIMES just like you can loose 20 hands in a row SOMETIMES. Thats like saying "stay away from a bank because it can get robbed." The odds don't change. Hot table, cold table...Hot tables can turn into cold tables as soon as you sit down and vice versa.
+samtastic74 Not entirely true. The odds change from hand to hand, as cards are depleted. I think what he is referring to is that when a shoe sucks ass, it tends to stay that way. Which the Seminole casinos are notorious for. I often see this happen with my own shoe at home, and what I do is take all the cards out and wash them. It has a lot to do with poor shuffling (basic strategy was written with the assumption that all cards are randomly available) I will start to see repeating hands vs repeating dealer hands etc. Losing streaks start to occur more often. Of course none of this means anything in the long run, if you're bankroll is unlimited, but I can tell you as an AP it will definitely hurt you if you're not properly funded. And by that I mean a trust fund baby.
This video is full of nonsense - right from the start. It was Edward Thorp that literally wrote the book and developed the mathematics behind basic strategy and card counting. The MIT people just applied it. I can't even comment on everything else you said because it's too dumb.
FlyLowLikeRylo Like you, I've studied the game. This guy is as knowledgeable as my brother-in-law the plumber is on stock tips. Any deviations from basic strategy should only occur when using a counting system like Hi-Lo and deviations like the Illustrious 18. All this guy is doing is giving the casinos a greater edge. "Everything you see on the internet is truthful, by law." Abraham Lincoln, 1896.
@Jeff Watson What do you mean card counting doesnt work? Work at what? Winning every hand? Not that but what card counting does work is gives you a very small percentage edge over the casino if applying perfect basic strategy with accurate card counting. This does not mean you are gonna win every hand or every session. It's the long game where this matters and where you will see the results. If you're mindset is set to win now and big then that is not what card counting is for.
there's a few things wrong with this technic.. #1: that after my 4th bet I'm no longer getting paid per hand.. making my risk on the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th potential bets.. essentially limiting myself of the obvious advantage over the individual round of wagers.. I won't iterate on the other issues..
Incorrect and full of gambler's fallacy. Basic strategy was not developed by "people at MIT." And you're gonna take basic strategy, which was developed by millions/billions of computer simulations to find the mathematically optimal plays, and DISAGREE(!) with some of the plays based on your hypotheticals? You said you don't play hunches. The computer simulations were wrong? You're correct that the house will win and grind you down over the long run. But why does your description say there IS a way to beat the house? Playing a bunch of short sessions and getting out quickly is no different from playing one long session that equals the same amount of time as all those short sessions. Playing with drunks or people who don't know how to play has NO mathematical difference on your own odds. That's a complete myth and fallacy. I'm sorry, but all the things you're saying are complete opposites to mathematically sound advice on how to play blackjack. Card counting is the ONLY way to gain an edge. All other methods will fail, whether you play short/long sessions, whether your neighbors are playing basic strategy or not. Hot/cold tables? FALLACY! "And make more money..." You said earlier that you can't, which was one of the only truthful things you said.
BOY have you got your "facts" wrong. NO basic strategy wasn't developed by MIT in the 1970s! Basic strategy was known long before that. Card counting was developed by one man in 1959-1960, and he obviously couldn't have done that if he wasn't even armed with basic strategy as a starting point prerequisite. You might as well have claimed that the principles of air flight was developed by MIT in the 1970s. You don't need to simulate millions of hands to figure it out, the calculations are simple and straightforward without monte carlo simulations. The appearance of this video is so amateurish I can't stand to watch any more, I'm at the 4 minute mark, bye.
@@bjplayertravels2777 cause the probability of the having a T or an A is much higher thant the probability if the tc is zero which the basic strategy is made of
Basic strategy narrows the house edge to 50.5% so playing basic strategy without counting will leave you losing in the long run. Your bet progression and other things that you mentioned do not change the basic strategy odds, but they might make it a more enjoyable game for a person, giving a false sense of control etc. If a person plays 300 hands (about 4 shoes of 6 decks) with your bet progression (or any other betting methodology) and they only rely on basic strategy and are not counting, AND if they play the basic strategy perfectly, they will enter the casino with $100 in their pocket and leave with $71 in their pocket. That is a $29 loss on average. With variance, which will happen, they will have nights that they win a lot of money and they will have nights where they loose everything. They will remember and talk about the wins and they will forget and not discuss the losses. That is what your friend that has been doing this for 3-4 years is doing - IF he plays PERFECT basic strategy.
Your approach is fine if people want to play BJ for entertainment and are fine paying for it but in the long run they will lose money.
So your saying the house has an edge of .5% over a person. Id say thats a pretty good start to getting lucky and perhaps gaining an edge if luck happens. I like the 15 min cut off rule, period win or lose
Thank you! I like the idea of not splitting 8s and not doubling down!
you would never double down?
Great video ! Thanks for the wisdom
To clarify, I never said avoid a hot table for the players. I said avoid a table where the DEALER is hot, making every hand, not busting, pulling 20 on every hand, etc. LISTEN! I don't know why but many times a table stays hot (for the dealer) all day long. I've seen it many times. All I know is that the longer you play, the better the house's chance of whittling you down slowly but surely, using that 2.5% advantage. Get out quick with your profit if you can. Use the basic strategy table (i.e. play by the book). You cannot play this game by hunches and win in the long run. It's a game of mathematics and probabilities. The casino has several major advantages: greed and revenge--2 emotions that plague most players. Greed---most players will not be satisfied with a small or moderate win of a few hundred dollars. If they are up $200, they try to run it up to a $500 win, $1,000 into $2,000, etc. They continue to play and ultimately walk out with nothing as the lucky streak ends. Revenge--most of use get pissed off when we lose right off the bat, say you lose your first 6 bets at a table. Instead of calling it a day and coming back tomorrow, they go to the ATM to get more $ and try to recoup that loss. But, they wind up losing more $ many times, digging a deeper hole. Have a definite limit on how much you can lose in a session and stick to it. The object of the game is not to see how many trips you can make to the ATM. Also, don't play with drunks or amateurs not using basic strategy. They will mess you up. These players are more likely to be found on the weekends.
John, it certainly appears dear ol'mama did not raise a prodigy here, altho I presume she did her best..........
What other players do at the table has no effect whatsoever in if you will win the hand or not. You can have the worst player in the world or the best player in the world and nothing will change. Someone could play horribly and help the dealer bust or if that someone was before you and took a high card when you needed a low card and then on your turn you got a low card when the other person was suppose to stay and took that high card and saved you from busting. And then you can play with the best players in the world but when its your turn you keep busting hands or never making your cards and the dealer never busts then what? Just bad luck? It's so easy to blame someone when something doesnt go your way if they played wrong but why not blame them too if they played right but didnt work out in your favor?
The point is that you as a player is facing the dealer. It's not a team that is facing the dealer. And it's not other player that is facing you. Blackjack is not a team game at all period. What other people do have no impact on the odds of your game at blackjack. I played with many good and bad players at the blackjack table. And TBh it doesn't really matter how they play. One time I played with a very good blackjack player at the table and I still lost all my $. But I wasn't mad at him cuz i knew that how he played had nothing to do with me.
believing in hot/cold tables is playing on hunches!
well said on the $ desire.....sometimes i'm up $300 and it's early ish into my session...that's a good win for me...if I keep playing, it'll likely go down....even negative....i'm working on hitting my # and getting out for the day....
thank you your video truly helped me as a new blackjack player I won 700 at the hard rock here in Florida
Great Steve! I always like it when people beat the house. One of the hardest things to do is to quit when you are up. If you are lucky enough to triple your stake or more, quit and be happy. Getting greedy and staying too long is an easy trap to fall into and will kill you.
+John LaRosa true thanks I appreciate your tips for success
that's awesome.
16v10 is dependent on the count. I hit 16 vs. T as long as the pure is the pure count is around 0.5 or lower.
Furthermore if you plan on staying 16 vs Ten then you are banking for the dealer to have 2-6 to have a chance of winning which is the same 5/13 odds and really 5/12 since there was no blackjack (ace) or on the irrelevancy of your play within' their blackjack.
Most books recommend splitting aces and eights except you
My, that "....as long as the pure is the pure count is....." stuff is sure illuminating!!!!
Observation: when they switch out the cards for new decks, usually 4-5 in the morning, the dealer fans out the cards, one deck at a time, on the table, face down. They look for any defects and count the cards, but you never see them face up. How do we, the players know that there really are 128 face cards in the 8 decks? If you ask them to show the cards face up, they won't do it. How does the dealer know? There should be 16 face cards in each deck (10, Jack, Queen, King). If Indian casinos are not audited by the states and have their own gaming commissions, who is to say that they are not taking 10s out of the deck? With less face cards and more smaller value cards, the advantage goes to the dealer, since they hit more often than we do and have a better chance of making a hand and not busting. For example, they must always hit on 16, whereas sometimes we do and sometimes we don't. Obviously, this would be "illegal", but if no one is checking, the temptation is there. Any thoughts?
I was thinking the same thing. Good question, I hope we get an answer.
In the telephone betting system, your first bet at the table is 2 units? But anytime you lose during 2,1,2,3,4,5, you bet 1 unit? And if you win that 1 unit you go back to the telephone system of 2,1,2,3,4,5? So you bet 1 unit after a loss within 2,1,2,3,4,5?
This is absolutely correct, John. The same thing can be said of the mechanical shufflers too. Who is to say they are making sure that the 10 value cards are AFTER the cut card in the shoe? It's the same thing as removing them entirely, correct? Let's say that the machine shufflers put an above average number of 10-value cards in the middle of the shoe. By default, most players cut the shoe in the middle, correct? Now, the dealer places the front half of the cut to the back and puts the cut card in about a deck's worth from the end. Now, there are a higher than average amount of 10-value cards that are no longer in play - thus, giving the House a HUGE advantage! Even the removal of just a single 10-value card can make a big difference! This is why players should cut the shoe more towards the front or the back, instead of the middle. "Cut thin to win."Alternately, instead of removing high cards, adding additional low-value cards (particularly fives and sixes) can also be devastating to the player. It would make sense for a casino to take out 10-value cards and add in the low-value cards in their place. Since they aren't turning up cards when they switch out decks, they could easily count them (face down) to still show you that the right NUMBER of cards are still there, all the while still giving themselves a massive advantage by not showing WHICH cards are actually there.The rub to all of this is that when I have observed deck switchouts, they are generally unwrapping the plastic from new decks. Are these decks already void of a few 10-value cards and addition low-value cards? It's definitely possible. Anyone can wrap plastic on decks of cards. I'm sure manufacturers will do anything you ask, so long as the price is right.Hand-shuffling is good advice, so long as they are not hand DEALT (holding the decks of cards). I don't know about you, but I don't like dealers dealing me seconds. Soooooo many of them do that too.Also, if you look at the, for example, Nevada State Gaming Commission's MICS (Minimum Internal Control Standards), they have absolutely nothing in place about checking the number and types of cards. Yes, they're definitely in bed with the casinos. Let's also not forget that dealers are now being trained to count cards. When the shoe is in the player's favor a certain distance into the shoe, they are instructed to shuffle. Many, many tricks out there that the casinos use against us and has been doing this for decades! These reasons are why I stay away from Blackjack entirely. Thoughts?
John LaRosa the shuffling machine is programmed to count cards. If there is any missing card, color or number it hit up the mistake with red light flushing. So, the machine itself guaranteed there are correct amount and values of all 8/6 decks.
Robert Reno you are wrong. The casino makes so much money off of people already they literally don't need to or care to cheat anyone. Almost no one follows basic strategy to a T and with every dumb players mistakes their advantage is astronomical. I agree it's ok to be skeptical but they seriously have no reason to do this
Thank you for sharing your knowledge
Hi John. Your video is apsolutely worth to see for everyone whose interesting on Black Jack. Your explanations easy to undestand, clear enough. Thanks for sharing your strategies.
I tried this system for my first time doing a 8 hour online turbo session combined using a negative recoup of loss system. I made $2,000 using $5 - $10 - $15 minimum bets with a positive progression bankroll 500, 1000, 1500 - 5-10-15. Ill be using 100x minimum wager from here out for bankroll management, but only with these two systems combined
Thank you for the info. I appreciate your time.
Well thank you for the info, since no one else has lol. I have a question on the telephone system. When you win on 5, do you stay at 5 or start over?
Use basic strategy. Follow that on the 16 hands.
I enjoyed the video, thanks for posting. I'm a pretty experienced player myself, & agree with most of your points. Especially where you recommend to quit after you're up.
Personally my target is to leave the table with between 75-80% of my highest chip total. This allows me to ride that wave you discussed until it throws me off.
I also agree with the telephone strategy for the most part, as its a progressive system which I also use. I don't regress my bet after a win, though I can understand why it's done.
For me I start out flat betting until I win 2 hands in a row or are up 2 units by way of dd or sp, then start pressing a little after each win, going back to my original bet after finally losing a hand.
I WILL regress my bet during the middle of a run, however, if any of the tables dynamics change...dealer change (burnt card) a new player comes in or an existing one leaves, or the shoe ends.
I'm not superstitious, but this is one point I strongly stand behind as a blackjack player, going against a math guy who believes that every hand is a separate random event. Streaks do occur, & sometimes it seems you can't lose & are hitting every hand, which is the pinnacle of the game for all players I'm sure.
I would also like to add one caveat to my progressive strategy. Once in a while when the table is hot, the dealer is busting & everyone is winning, I will "let it ride" & double my bet. This move increased my win rate exponentially. if I'm able to win that hand, my implied odds go thru the roof, since I'm going from maybe 2 units...2...3...4...5...6...7 etc to 2,2,3,4,8,10, etc. If I lose, no big deal, start over.
Regarding basic strategy, ive studied many charts that have varying levels of aggression, & would like your opinion on these hands...
11 vs vs 10/picture...dd or not? Vs an A? Some charts advise to dd on 11 no matter what the up card is, some is a 2 pt rule & dd vs
I'm from brooksville I play Tampa too
16 Vs 10 are no surrender ? (8 , 8 vs 10 split or surrender?) and the Basic Strategy Variations is the truth count are +4 ?
16 against 10 - you are already loos 78% but if you hit, it is just 61% bust. So choose....
Alin Lor That's what I was thinking, It's not whether you bust or not. It's the fact that hitting a 16 vs a 10 minimizes your chances to lose in the long run. Some of the advice here is not mathematically based in anything.
how often do you play John?
Can you list your source for the house having a 2.5% edge when you play correct basic strategy? Everything I have read or studied does NOT reflect this high a house edge with standard blackjack rules. Unless they are only paying 6-5 on BJ, which everyone should avoid like the plague. And as to comment about basic strategy omitting the cards being played upon the initial 4 cards being dealt, basic strategy, the correct one, takes into account all of the cards based upon the first three you have. Your initial two v the dealer's up card.
you say that doing the basic strategy (stand , hit, double, split) + telephone number system can be winning at blackjack ?
nitram sogrub no you will lose all your money this is literally the worst advise ever
Always split eights in the long run its the right move
I go up to Port Richie on the Tropical Breeze to play BJ even though the Hard Rock is only 1/2 hour away from me. $5.00 tables there unlike the Hard Rock's $25.00. They hand shuffle 8 decks.
Sounds good. I prefer a handle shuffle.
how have you done at Tropical breeze?
if the dealer has 3,4,5,6 im splitting tens or face cards! is that what you wanted to say?
How people play or bet doesn't bother me what they say or how they act does!
yikes...splitting 10 value on a dealer...that's scary
You sir have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. Right from the start I knew you didn't have a clue when you claimed the MIT team developed basic Blackjack strategy
i feel you lol i was MIT made the basic strategy? I must have read the wrong book lol
hello how many units should I wear to play and how many have to retire?
I leave my card and the rest of my $ at home so if I loose I can't get more lol
One problem with the basic strategy chart; it assumes you are being dealt from a fresh deck or decks every time. Never is this the case. In every game there is a minimum of four cards missing, three of which you can see and one burned card.
Nevertheless, it is still the best strategy to increase your odds ever invented. Not my invention, but from the whiz math kids at MIT in the 1970s, via a computer simulation of a million hands. If there is a better system out there, please let me know. Granted, you can't play a million hands in a session, and not everyone at your table will play perfect basic strategy, but you are still much better off than playing hunches.or winging it. You should ALWAYS play basic strategy, whether you come in at the beginning of a shoe or not.
+John LaRosa I do play that way but I memorize the cards that have been played before. For instance once I see most of the aces used up out of a shoe i get up and leave. When I see most of the fives dealt i double my bets. and I much of the time DD against a dealer's ace. After they ask for insurance they admit they don't have a ten. Thanks dealer, now I know you only have a one third chance of having a high card stead of 2/3's. The chances of them having a two is as high as a nine. As long as I make twenty I can still push, all other cards a win, assuming I get my ten.
Show me another bet in vegas where you get to see both your cards and the one of the dealer's BEFORE you bet. Go ahead and do the math, you'll see the edge.
BTW, the basic strategy chart was done back in the 50's. MIT just used it. They didn't invent it, they had no need, they just counted cards. I do them one better I memorize them. I use a little visual aid in my head, it comes from playing Bridge, I just put all the cards up in my mind and take them down as they are dealt. Kind of like the dummy hand in Bridge.
I usually do the two deck shoe at Mandalay Bay but I can do it on six deck too at the Mirage. Mandalay Bay went to the auto shuffle so your way works best playing your basic strategy. Also an auto shuffler actually increases your odds that way.
I already have proven my way right, I paid my Caltech tuition by playing my way after losing my scholarship.
It's great that you have a photographic memory. Most people don't. Where I play at the Hard Rock in Tampa, they have an 8 deck shoe, with an automatic card shuffler (not continuous shuffle). I prefer the tables where they hand shuffle. They have those too. Isn't it really difficult to keep track of all the cards dealt in an 8 deck shoe?
I get it about the burn card, but what are the other 3 that are missing?
+John LaRosa The dealt cards. Look at the two in your hand and one showing of the dealers. So yes, and the burn card is missing but you'll never know which one so it does little good to speculate. If you see no tens you are already at plus one. What most programs forget to factor in is the cards showing. You can't do the math using 52 cards. You need to start with only 47 cards, subtracting the ones already dealt.
BTW, I've done the math staying on 16 and only hitting on 15, the difference is almost non existent so if you if have a hunch on that number might as well play it. Your mind may be telling you something.
Ever hear of doubling your bet after every loss? It works to a point. If you keep to your rules you can beat this game.
You stated a common fallacy about always assuming the dealer has a 10 as a down card. Fact, there is only a 4 in 13 chance that is true. So in fact, you're better off assuming the dealer does NOT have a 10 as a down card. This makes you wrong about splitting 8's against a 10 or A.
LOL, casinos are built on wisdom like yours Ken. You moron.
Basically, you're saying, assume the gun isn't loaded.....
Vicious Vomit Hahahaha you guys served Ken
Likely Ken has never played a hand of BJ in his life. And certainly is not the brightest bulb on the ol' Yule Tree concerning things mathematical and statistical
I didn't hear the entire video yet....I don't know the language used... you would always assume dealer has a 10 VALUE card undernearth.. ten, jack, queen, king.... if 2 decks...4,4,4,4 x 2= 32 cards...
What about card counting?
have you tried that?
i'd rather trust basic strategy; it's mathematically proved
This IS the basic strategy table. No one should ever play without using basic strategy. Playing by hunches doesn't work in the long run.
ΝΈΟΣ BLACKJACK STRATEGY by ASSUS Mathematical Company
@@johnlarosa5695 But no, you said you want to deviate from basic strategy on those certain situations.
100% with you !
where is his Cards? black jack Lecture?
Why not take your winnings & invest in PowerPoint?
About hot vs cold tables, that really depends on how the players are playing. If they do really stupid things like staying on 12-16 (with two cards) against a dealer 7+, or not hitting soft 17s and 18s against dealer 7+, or not splitting 7s and 6s against dealer 3-6, then they aren't taking enough cards out of the shoe for you to make a decent prediction for how the rest of the shoe is going to be. If you can't see at least 8 cards at any given time on a table, do not play at that table.
Nearly ALL of blackjack is about being able to make solid predictions and profiting off of them. That's really what card counting is all about, same with basic strats. In order to make those predictions, you need to see tons of cards.
Hey dumbass, how other players are playing makes not one whit of differnce as too your expectations. If you are thinking about such things at a BJ table you might as well stay away.
The whole thing about seeing 8 cards is pure bunk. I am proficient at CC and I would rather be entirely by myself, seeing about 3 cards at once. It does not mater how the cards come out of the shoe, it matters whether you see all those cards and process that info accurately and correctly.
You have never counted cards in your life altho you likely think you do.
The insurance bet.......why do you always assume dealer has ten on other hands....but with Ace up...only 30% probability of ten down....probability is the same no matter the up card...
There is more than a 50% chance of busting with a hard 15 as well, why don’t you recommend not hitting on 15?
Never play blackjack games the have a 2.5% house advantage. Never play 6-5 blackjack. Never play against a continuous shuffle machine. It makes no difference how other other players play their cards. It makes no difference whether the table was hot or cold in the past. None of this effects the house advantage. The house is effected by the rules of the game, and the conditions of the game, and how well you play. The house advantage is effected by the number of decks used and the deck penetration.
you are talking to leave after winning and go to other game ...this is short term solution ...but is there way to win consitently?
No, altho they don't hurt anything, betting systems and moneymanagement systems cannot work to reduce the house edge in any way. You will lose over the long term. Yes, you can win at the game by cardcounting. And typically they will bar you from playing, All these things he talks about in the vid is irrationality.
why go back one bet on 2nd win bet??
Because winning more than 2 in a row is difficult. This is the system created by George Pappadopoulos, book that I read entitled: Blackjack's Hidden Secrets, Win Without Counting. It came out in 1999. Get a copy by calling 609-653-3069
There is no such thing as hot (or cold) table. Are you freaking kiddn me?
agreed...each shoe is different....the rest is mysticism
There is no betting system that will overcome the house advantage!!!
Yes there is, cut your bet in half after a blackjack or a two card 20. Double your bet after a double down hand.
+Chris: My that was pure genius!
I am sure people by the hundreds are heading for the casinos as we speak to implement that wondrous strategy! Fact is, +p schmidt certainly did, I saw him there!
This is likely to bring down the house!
As a former dealer, the hand shuffle is ONLY good when the table is losing. the machine shufflers shuffle in a pattern. If the table is winning, it will continue to win for a while if you keep the same people playing the same way.
The only thing this guy said that I agree with is you DONT always split 8's. Split them with a 2-7 showing. No need to double bet on a bad hand.
Table flow is WAY more important than any system....remember that.
16 always surrenders against dealer 8 and above, right? Even with a pair of 8s? That's what I was thinking too. But if the house doesn't have a surrender option then you split 8s, right?
Also I never know what to do with 7s. 14 just as stiff a hand as 16, but do you always split 7s too?
Soul of Joelsuf Splitting 7’s isn’t the same since hitting a 14 is easier than hitting a 16. Splitting 7’s against a dealers 8 or above isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but just remember, the dealers hole card is supposed to be assumed a 10 or face card. If you assume you’ll get two face cards with your split, you just doubled your bet against a dealer 18 with your two “17’s”. I’d hit it, take the loss and look for a better hand to play. The odds may tell you differently, but then again, those odds don’t work to your favor unless you play the same amount of simulated hands they do. Also, the average winning hand is 18.5. Hard to achieve when splitting 7’s.
If surrender is an option, is spose you can consider that, but why give up without a fight? Why not mail a check to the casino and avoid the traffic. Play the hand, but use your head and use the strategy that best compliments your style and play time.
How do you define "table flow"?
+Vomit: Wow, don't you really think the inventors of those very expensive machines simply made a machine which shuffles randomly?
Secondly, if it is not shuffling randomly as you insist, why do you leap to the unsupported conclusion that that situation is aiding the house??
Thirdly, there is nothing in the handling of the cards by the dealer or the player which sorts the cards anyway, so it would not make one whit of difference whether the cards were shuffled at all. They are shuffled for the sake of the player and because sooner or later if they did not, shuffle trackers could begin to take advantage
Table flow? (-;. Geez, do we really need to address such an idiotic concept?
Gee wiz, genius, go to a basic strat chart online and see whether and when you should split 8s, for goshsake. This is the computer age, and there are no arguments about proper basic strat anymore.
All in all, a quite irrational series of comments.
Hot tables...cold tables...the odds dont change bro. So I have to disagree with you there.
Also...people playing stupid doesn't effect the odds as well. So I disagree with you on that one. However playing around drunks is a bad idea. They get angry and don't know what they are doing.
If you don't like playing around drunks because they don't know what they are doing (i.e. playing right, basic strategy), then you just contradicted yourself. You said others playing stupid doesn't matter. It does. It doesn't affect the overall odds, true, but it does interrupt a good streak for the table.
I've seen many tables stay "hot" for the dealer all day long, or at least a couple hours "bro". Just my observation. Why play there when there are many other tables to choose from. Don't know why but it does happen.
Don't depend on hot or cold tables when playing blackjack. Staying away from a cold table does jack squat to gain an edge. It happens SOMETIMES just like you can loose 20 hands in a row SOMETIMES. Thats like saying "stay away from a bank because it can get robbed." The odds don't change. Hot table, cold table...Hot tables can turn into cold tables as soon as you sit down and vice versa.
+samtastic74 Not entirely true. The odds change from hand to hand, as cards are depleted. I think what he is referring to is that when a shoe sucks ass, it tends to stay that way. Which the Seminole casinos are notorious for. I often see this happen with my own shoe at home, and what I do is take all the cards out and wash them. It has a lot to do with poor shuffling (basic strategy was written with the assumption that all cards are randomly available) I will start to see repeating hands vs repeating dealer hands etc. Losing streaks start to occur more often. Of course none of this means anything in the long run, if you're bankroll is unlimited, but I can tell you as an AP it will definitely hurt you if you're not properly funded. And by that I mean a trust fund baby.
This video is full of nonsense - right from the start. It was Edward Thorp that literally wrote the book and developed the mathematics behind basic strategy and card counting. The MIT people just applied it. I can't even comment on everything else you said because it's too dumb.
FlyLowLikeRylo Like you, I've studied the game. This guy is as knowledgeable as my brother-in-law the plumber is on stock tips. Any deviations from basic strategy should only occur when using a counting system like Hi-Lo and deviations like the Illustrious 18. All this guy is doing is giving the casinos a greater edge.
"Everything you see on the internet is truthful, by law." Abraham Lincoln, 1896.
Yes, I don't agree with what he said about not splitting 8's. According to Basic Strategy, you ALWAYS split 8's and Aces.
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@Jeff Watson What do you mean card counting doesnt work? Work at what? Winning every hand? Not that but what card counting does work is gives you a very small percentage edge over the casino if applying perfect basic strategy with accurate card counting. This does not mean you are gonna win every hand or every session. It's the long game where this matters and where you will see the results. If you're mindset is set to win now and big then that is not what card counting is for.
He’s right
You sir dont know how to play black jack learn how to count cards and use basic strategy .
there's a few things wrong with this technic.. #1: that after my 4th bet I'm no longer getting paid per hand.. making my risk on the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th potential bets.. essentially limiting myself of the obvious advantage over the individual round of wagers..
I won't iterate on the other issues..
Incorrect and full of gambler's fallacy. Basic strategy was not developed by "people at MIT." And you're gonna take basic strategy, which was developed by millions/billions of computer simulations to find the mathematically optimal plays, and DISAGREE(!) with some of the plays based on your hypotheticals? You said you don't play hunches. The computer simulations were wrong? You're correct that the house will win and grind you down over the long run. But why does your description say there IS a way to beat the house? Playing a bunch of short sessions and getting out quickly is no different from playing one long session that equals the same amount of time as all those short sessions. Playing with drunks or people who don't know how to play has NO mathematical difference on your own odds. That's a complete myth and fallacy. I'm sorry, but all the things you're saying are complete opposites to mathematically sound advice on how to play blackjack. Card counting is the ONLY way to gain an edge. All other methods will fail, whether you play short/long sessions, whether your neighbors are playing basic strategy or not. Hot/cold tables? FALLACY! "And make more money..." You said earlier that you can't, which was one of the only truthful things you said.
BOY have you got your "facts" wrong. NO basic strategy wasn't developed by MIT in the 1970s! Basic strategy was known long before that. Card counting was developed by one man in 1959-1960, and he obviously couldn't have done that if he wasn't even armed with basic strategy as a starting point prerequisite. You might as well have claimed that the principles of air flight was developed by MIT in the 1970s. You don't need to simulate millions of hands to figure it out, the calculations are simple and straightforward without monte carlo simulations.
The appearance of this video is so amateurish I can't stand to watch any more, I'm at the 4 minute mark, bye.
dont play black jack sir.
Garbage, he is wasting everybody’s time
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if the tc is >3 then you split 8s if the tc is
why is that?
@@bjplayertravels2777 cause the probability of the having a T or an A is much higher thant the probability if the tc is zero which the basic strategy is made of
Basic strategy is BULLSHIT
why's that?