How Far will Interest Rates fall in 2025

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  • Опубликовано: 14 ноя 2024

Комментарии • 114

  • @economicshelp
    @economicshelp  3 месяца назад +5

    Don't forget my new global chanel. I enjoyed making this video about Venezuela.ruclips.net/video/JXgZygFQpWE/видео.html&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.economicshelp.org%2F It was very interesting, even if I did misprounce Venezuela!

  • @jamesgeorge8915
    @jamesgeorge8915 3 месяца назад +25

    What shocks me is that a nation of wage slaves has just taken a rough 25% loss to their standard of living/wealth and there is no real recognition of it, just talking heads going on about a reduction in inflation etc. as a nation we have taken a massive step down in our quality of life and it's all "keep calm and carry on" wank. The UK is entering 'developing' nation status.

    • @SailForth9
      @SailForth9 3 месяца назад +2

      A massive fall in living standards, probably more than 25%... I think everyone is yet to wake up for what's just happened. It's shocking.

    • @chrisgeorgiou46
      @chrisgeorgiou46 3 месяца назад

      The ultra wealthy are pulling the media's and government's strings, pointing at migrants and laughing as we all in-fight whilst they have had a huge wealth transfer from the middle and working class.The government has less money. We have less money. Where has it all gone? It's a story as old as time and we need to wise up and tackle this issue head on. Close those loopholes that are so heavily exploited by the ultra wealthy and add in some form of wealth tax NOW.
      And if you are going to defend these ultra wealthy people and say "they'll all leave if we tax them," ask yourself if they have ever spared one second to think about your finances.

    • @coffeebreakchat2450
      @coffeebreakchat2450 2 месяца назад

      This.
      UK salaries have been flat at the lower end for 15+ years.
      Real price inflation - not the ONS massaged version - has been rampant.
      Most average Joe's simply cannot afford anything but subsistence living now.

    • @davidtiessen7713
      @davidtiessen7713 2 месяца назад

      well said, I'm in Canada and its the same here - the policies, the effects and no one's freaking out, like WTF, the present and future are fckd and its all intentional and you're ok with this??

    • @jamesgeorge8915
      @jamesgeorge8915 2 месяца назад

      @@davidtiessen7713 the only solution I see is a steady period of wage increases

  • @DavinderPanesar23
    @DavinderPanesar23 3 месяца назад +5

    I believe the IMF found that in nearly all historical data there was no link between wage growth and inflation. Inflation occurs when Main Street issue currency. That's exactly what inflation is, the printing of currency.

  • @1lovefootball
    @1lovefootball 3 месяца назад +8

    Dont get your hopes up and risk devaluation of the £ if the UK cuts rate any further and the US fed keep rate high as we risk importing inflation due to a fall in purchasing power of the pounds

    • @Micfri300
      @Micfri300 3 месяца назад

      Did you see the us data from yesterday?

    • @John-c4r1o
      @John-c4r1o 2 месяца назад

      That's why the BOE has its interest decision the day after the FED. Generally we just follow them.

  • @austinbar
    @austinbar 3 месяца назад +9

    Sadly with each passing day we can see the impact this awful policy has had on the UK. Tied up in red tape and tariffs with lower GDP than before the pandemic whilst the others in the G7, including Italy, are above. The lower GDP means we do not have the headroom to pay our way in the world and must resort to borrowing.Whilst there are rich people in the UK; a great many of us are poor and now we are poorer still. What steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?

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      @rogerwheelers4322 3 месяца назад +6

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      @joshbarney114 3 месяца назад +6

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  • @hungo7720
    @hungo7720 3 месяца назад +2

    Despite subsiding a bit, inflation still lingers and prices haven't abated enough in the UK. The economic outlook of the UK might still be dismal in the next few years as wage rises are sluggish and miniscule.

  • @DidierWyche
    @DidierWyche 5 дней назад

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  • @theolddog5129
    @theolddog5129 3 месяца назад +12

    The ideal situation will be for interest rates to fall to 3.0% to 3.5% in the next 2 years, settle at that level for a few years and then rise slowly to 4.0% to 4.5% over a few years. Anything lower will simply lead to house price inflation once again and lack of affordability.

    • @tom.bailey
      @tom.bailey 3 месяца назад +3

      Absolutely, low interest rates has destroyed housing affordability already. Young people with no equity have been screwed over and the only people who have really benefit are property investors and estate agents.

    • @Willopo100
      @Willopo100 3 месяца назад +3

      meh, housing is fucked. Need more houses to be built. Its simple.

    • @theolddog5129
      @theolddog5129 3 месяца назад +2

      @@Willopo100 That in itself will not bring a halt to excessive house price inflation. House prices are driven largely by levels which buyers can afford and sellers' asking prices. Market forces lead to a natural alignment of the two. Interest rates are a far more effective control on house prices than the number of properties built.

    • @Willopo100
      @Willopo100 3 месяца назад +2

      @@theolddog5129 yeah, thats all true. However supply is too low. Start there and we might get somewhere. UK houses are mostly digusting anyway. I left to live in Mexico and here you can pick up 3 bed apartments for £200k in major cities with far superior safety and quality of life than UK.

    • @joesmith3590
      @joesmith3590 2 месяца назад

      @@theolddog5129that ia not true at all. Look at Texas they built homes when prices rose and now homes are declining. Most of Europe is so liberal they haven’t built anything meaningful to housing for decades so it is hard for the people their to see it works but is does. Liberal governments block housing and drive up cost.

  • @erongi233
    @erongi233 3 месяца назад +6

    A case can be made that interest rates at their "natural" rate historically around 5% have encouraged productivity and ultra low interest rates the opposite. If you have a crappy project which is not very profitable it may still go ahead if interest rates are next to zero. If interest rates are much higher the poor return project will not go ahead. Combined with zombies who only stay in business if borrowing costs are low because they are inefficient then higher interest rates maybe desirable for economic health.

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  3 месяца назад +3

      It is an interesting point, I wish I had mentioned it. I think there are good reasons to try to avoid the zero interest rates of the 2010s.

    • @Daytona2
      @Daytona2 3 месяца назад

      I wonder if that was the reason for the productivity stall 🤔

    • @erongi233
      @erongi233 3 месяца назад +1

      @@Daytona2 someone should do a PhD on that.

  • @lucacivalentin3909
    @lucacivalentin3909 2 месяца назад

    Hi...a quick question...where to you see the interest rates in 2 years time???...the actual rate that people borrow. Thx

  • @ebuka56
    @ebuka56 3 месяца назад +1

    The UK economy is composed of 80% service sector. This service sector inflation currently stands at 5.7%, but total inflation for the economy is 2%. Has somebody given primary, secondary and tertiary sectors inflation equal weighting in calculating the overall inflation figures? Can 80% of your overall economy experience inflation of 5.7% and then the overall economy inflation is 2%?

  • @andrewharris3900
    @andrewharris3900 3 месяца назад +2

    Reserve bank shouldn’t be controlling interest rates. They should only intervene in the case of an emergency and allow the market to find the natural rate.

    • @Micfri300
      @Micfri300 3 месяца назад

      What like what happened to cause the great depression?
      No thanks.
      Time and time again history has shown that a good manufacturing base economy are the most successful.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 3 месяца назад +2

    From my recollections of previous labour governments is they would take money off you every budget. Gordon Brown was very good at it. They take money from those who have worked hard and saved to enjoy a better life and give it to those who have not.

  • @graemejones9707
    @graemejones9707 3 месяца назад

    Near enough zero, I called it early in the year and I still see a fiscal liquidity event returning rates rapidly to or close to 0%

  • @danh9442
    @danh9442 3 месяца назад

    It would be nice if you separated out productivity in private sector from public as they are vastly different according to ONS data.

  • @andrewharris3900
    @andrewharris3900 3 месяца назад

    Big mistake by the BoE. High household savings rates help to drive investment, look at China and their household savings rate.
    Also why are they doing QE when the economy is still growing.

  • @drscopeify
    @drscopeify 3 месяца назад

    We in the west have made an error, when rates and inflation hit bottom in 2008 and failed to return back to normal levels, we should have issued policies to create more inflation in a beneficial away. Issue policies to boost a rise in construction, de-regulation and land usage, or issue industrial policies and tariffs to replace a few cheap imports with higher cost local manufacturing, maybe in Green energy, cars, electronics, and so on.
    By failing to do so, we have ballooned the highly inefficient value of housing that does very little to benefit the population other than raise inequality. The problem with industrial polices is that you distort the free market but this might be the future of the world we live in so might as well start small and see how it plays out.

  • @michaelchristian5089
    @michaelchristian5089 3 месяца назад

    The 2 very basic conditions for a sound economy ripe for healthy growth are fiscal balance & a balance of trade with the rest of the world.

  • @andrewtaylor6737
    @andrewtaylor6737 3 месяца назад +4

    Interest rates should be around 6% for a stable economy, why the hell they dropped so low just emphasises how screwed the economy is!
    For those who've had a mortgage for over 10 years should be laughing all the way to the bank, with all that cash saved & stashed away as long as they didn't spend it on lavish holidays & silly lease car deals!!
    Slow & steady house price declines for years to come, but many crapping themselves in the knowledge they're asset is slowly being eroded away.
    In short, a recession on its way - if not a depression.

    • @Jacky-Boy
      @Jacky-Boy 3 месяца назад

      Ask my how I know you've paid off your mortgage

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 3 месяца назад +1

      @@Jacky-Boy ?

  • @g36marksmen
    @g36marksmen 3 месяца назад

    I thought the IMF ugraded our forecast from 0.5% to 0.7% for this year?

  • @nickgreen8268
    @nickgreen8268 3 месяца назад

    You didn't answer the thumbnail question.

  • @donelson52
    @donelson52 3 месяца назад +12

    What we need is a rollback of inflation to counteract the high prices that we have now.

    • @auldfouter8661
      @auldfouter8661 3 месяца назад +9

      That would imply businesses having to drop the prices for goods and services - quite likely causing a recession. Be careful what you wish for.

    • @Toodyslexicforyou
      @Toodyslexicforyou 3 месяца назад +1

      Doesn’t really matter as long as wages rise as well.

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  3 месяца назад +16

      Unfortunately, it is pretty hard to actually reduce prices without deflating the economy and causing recession. It's more important to get real wage growth than to try to reduce actually prices

    • @Flaggyt
      @Flaggyt 3 месяца назад +1

      No we don't my 250k mortgage is getting less and less give me some extra inflation, just make sure the wages will compensate like the did here mostly.😂

    • @donelson52
      @donelson52 3 месяца назад +1

      @@Toodyslexicforyou . pensions not keeping up

  • @winthorpe2560
    @winthorpe2560 3 месяца назад

    How long can debt keep increasing before holders demand higher rates?

    • @MatthewDeacon-so5nv
      @MatthewDeacon-so5nv 3 месяца назад

      Because they live off giving new debt and selling it on in packaged mortgage bonds etc

  • @nerd_abroad
    @nerd_abroad 3 месяца назад

    What baffles me is that central banks kept interest rates near zero for so long while house prices soared. Why is it that they only raised them when CPI spiked? Housing is the biggest cost we all face. That’s the real inflation and it was CAUSED by low interest rates. If they had raised them years ago we wouldn’t be in this mess. Now we’re stuck with high house prices AND high interest rates. The worst of all possible worlds!!!

  • @ashharryman19
    @ashharryman19 3 месяца назад +2

    I love your vids!

  • @AgentGreyFox
    @AgentGreyFox 3 месяца назад

    I don't think wage growth will have a massive impact on disposable income, given the costs of rent and mortgages. By the time rates drop, settlements will be lower. What needs to happen curbing private profiteering so this money can go into public services. The banks, energy conpanies etc. have made billions! Labour needs to BUILD.

  • @turingtrading5301
    @turingtrading5301 3 месяца назад +3

    You have a greater understanding than the latest resident in Number 11..

  • @ncooper8438
    @ncooper8438 3 месяца назад

    What seems to be certain is that if rates fall to 2% say, then savers will get almost nothing because savings rates have been 1-2% below the bank rate for some years. A decade ago savings rates were slightly above the bank rate but since the bank bail outs they are below and it seems that will be the norm from now on. The boe can do what it likes it seems.

    • @Flaggyt
      @Flaggyt 3 месяца назад

      I think the problem here is that bank raise their interest rates when they need the cash.
      But after the last banking crisis the banks here had to hav bigger reserves, so they have enough cash, they don't need to get more out of the market.
      You have to be very careful if there is one bank that has significant higher rates cause those have a cashflow problem mist likely.

    • @ncooper8438
      @ncooper8438 3 месяца назад

      @@Flaggyt Banking in the uk is a level playing field, there're all pretty much the same.

    • @Flaggyt
      @Flaggyt 3 месяца назад

      @@ncooper8438 same here in the Netherlands not enough competition in the market they all follow each other.
      But that really doesn't change my point.

  • @Ned-s8r
    @Ned-s8r 3 месяца назад +3

    Nothing to do with labour or Rachel reeves

  • @edwardmiller3859
    @edwardmiller3859 3 месяца назад +7

    Will be offset with the coming tax rises. .we are screwed

    • @countycod123
      @countycod123 3 месяца назад

      The ecomony needs a boost, people need to be freed from high interest psyments otherwise many small & medium sized businesses will be screwed .
      Your opinion and blinkered attitude is one of the many reasons the country recently voted for Change.

    • @FreaksSpeaks
      @FreaksSpeaks 3 месяца назад

      ​@@countycod123if a company can not survive at neutral rate of 5% , may not be a viable business? What do no know?

    • @coolbanana165
      @coolbanana165 3 месяца назад +1

      Why do you think working people will be taxed more?

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 3 месяца назад +1

    I think 5% historically is a low rate. No more QE so we can’t go back to free money.

    • @MatthewDeacon-so5nv
      @MatthewDeacon-so5nv 3 месяца назад

      You don’t understand money if you think this is a low.

  • @andrewwalker3312
    @andrewwalker3312 3 месяца назад

    lets face it we are still reeling from the energy price hikes there's were the blame lays greedy energy company's one thing led to another

  • @AdamWebb1982
    @AdamWebb1982 3 месяца назад

    People have got to use to such stupidly low interest rates. It should have never been that low to begin with.

  • @davidtiessen7713
    @davidtiessen7713 2 месяца назад

    Both previous inflations 1933-1946 and 1969 -1980 saw 3 spikes in the money supply followed by 3 spikes in asset prices and lastly 3 spikes in CPI. In this regard, 2020 kicked off the 1st spike, expect 2 more, which means the stimulus spike #2 to get us out of the recession policy put us into will lead to inflation spike #2 = double digit inflation. When it comes to rates expect them to be rapidly cut - here in Canada we're the 1st, now at 3rd .25% cut, but unlike in the 1970's inflation where rates just kept going higher and higher this inflation period will follow the 1st inflation most probably seeing rates capped via yield curve control for the simple reason debt/GDP >100% = govs cant afford high rates and instead of growing real GDP they are inflating nominal GDP so the debt portion appears much smaller as a ratio. We'll all pay more tax on the higher price and more interest on the greater debt and remain slaves to a system designed for them not us. 2020= 1933 and 2025 =1938.... on our way to 1946

  • @GRY890
    @GRY890 3 месяца назад +1

    So if interest rates falls, does that mean the job market will get any better soon?

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  3 месяца назад +2

      I don't think it will be particularly noticeable.

    • @kevinsyd2012
      @kevinsyd2012 3 месяца назад +2

      There are over 900,000 job vacancies at the moment..!!

    • @GRY890
      @GRY890 3 месяца назад

      @@kevinsyd2012 And yet most of them are literally 'ghost job' and there's people complaining that they can't even get a basic job like a cleaner or fast-food worker.

    • @kevinsyd2012
      @kevinsyd2012 3 месяца назад +1

      @@GRY890 Nonsense. Literally anyone who really wants to work can find work. Unfortunately it's literally easy to be paid to stay at home and complain that there're literally no jobs available.

    • @GRY890
      @GRY890 3 месяца назад

      @@kevinsyd2012 How is it nonsense? try applying for jobs on companies website or jobs websites, then you will understand. Also if the job market is doing really well, then I wouldn't comment if job market is getting any better soon and the UK wouldn't have a recession???

  • @CosmosChill7649
    @CosmosChill7649 3 месяца назад

    UK will follow what the American empire tells it to do regarding rate cuts.
    It is a very important consideration at least worthy of mention

  • @FiscalWoofer
    @FiscalWoofer 3 месяца назад

    We will see a reaction low, but they will never ever go back to 0%, in our lifetime. 2020 marked a 5000 year low.

    • @marxk4rl
      @marxk4rl 3 месяца назад

      Yea, free money to borrow, never again, lol.

  • @gerhard7323
    @gerhard7323 3 месяца назад

    An old fashioned, largely discredited term but our monetary policy seems to have been forged on the basis of trickle down theory.
    Trickle down isn't entirely self serving twaddle but it works at its simplest level when a certain group of people ie rentiers aren't exclusively in a position thanks to the largesse of the state to forever buy up assets that others plainly can't afford and they can then charge ever more rent for.
    The system has been broken.
    Either by accident or design, the outcome is the same.
    Monetary policy helped the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

  • @SarahWalker-Smith
    @SarahWalker-Smith 3 месяца назад

    Do higher rates themselves contribute toward higher inflation if it causes higher prices? Thanks

  • @terryj50
    @terryj50 3 месяца назад +4

    What makes me laugh is that people think a rate fall is the answer all this will do is force house prices up more. You need to keep rates up. People need to learn to live within their means. You need to build more homes not put down rates.

  • @AhuraMazda11
    @AhuraMazda11 3 месяца назад +1

    Normal interest rate should be 2% so this will feed growth and our children can get a job when they reach their age. High interest rates makes rich more richer and poor more poorer. Also high interest rates signs of undeveloped countries.

  • @leebailey229
    @leebailey229 3 месяца назад

    All the way to 0.25% ... DO NOT INVEST IN THE UK. I travel the world and I spread this message all over. I will not stop EVER

  • @Tensquaremetreworkshop
    @Tensquaremetreworkshop 3 месяца назад

    Anyone who has examined how both 'inflation' and 'GDP' is measured knows that it is a guessing game,

  • @RS-jb1lf
    @RS-jb1lf 3 месяца назад +1

    5% is astronomically high. Many will say the 1980s had 13-20%, yes but:
    a) house prices were 2-3x wages
    b) affordability saw 25% of monthly take home paying for mortgages even at these high rates
    c) Savings enjoyed those 13-20% rates
    Right now, affordability is 8-9x wages, take home pay is 50-60% of monthly take home used for mortgage payments, savings only get sub 5%.
    Don’t say 5% is not high, it needs coming down to 2-3%.

  • @vtecgrin4503
    @vtecgrin4503 3 месяца назад +1

    Just wait for the inflation from the massive pay rises comes through. Historically shortly after cuts are made inflation kicks back in and rates need to go back up again. Also gas prices shooting back up in recent days ..all ads to inflation

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 3 месяца назад +3

    It doesn’t feel like 2% when you buy half empty packages from the supermarket at a higher price !

    • @franekspeak953
      @franekspeak953 3 месяца назад +1

      Inflation is the price GROWTH not the prices themselve. Lower inflation does not mean prices will get lower! It just means they will grow less rapidly. The massive price growth that has already occurred in recent years is irreversible. It will only be more expensive in the future, the question is not if but how quickly.

  • @philipvjones397
    @philipvjones397 3 месяца назад

    7.57 The only purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

  • @3thinking
    @3thinking 3 месяца назад

    ZIRP and QE incoming with this Labour govt in charge. They will pressure the BoE to go back to easy money, get those 100% mortgages on the go.

  • @PhilipBaker-sf4yv
    @PhilipBaker-sf4yv 3 месяца назад

    Labour does not approve of savings so rates will fall further

  • @Alexibawendi
    @Alexibawendi 3 месяца назад +1

    - [ ] I HAVE INCURRED SO MUCH LOSSES TRADING ON MY OWN...I TRADE WELL ON DEMO BUT I THINK THE REAL MARKET IS MANIPULATED... CAN ANYONE HELP ME OUT OR AT LEAST TELL ME WHAT I'M DOING WRONG ?

  • @muratdagdelen8163
    @muratdagdelen8163 3 месяца назад

    House Price Bonanza again £££ Free Money loading... £££

  • @Christmascancelled
    @Christmascancelled 3 месяца назад

    Financial markers in America about to collapse.

  • @370suzuki
    @370suzuki 3 месяца назад +2

    5% is not high interest rates

    • @MatthewDeacon-so5nv
      @MatthewDeacon-so5nv 3 месяца назад

      You do not understand money if you think this

    • @370suzuki
      @370suzuki 3 месяца назад

      @@MatthewDeacon-so5nv I think it is you who do not understand economics , you are obviously younger. Regards

  • @kubajaan
    @kubajaan 3 месяца назад

    By december will go back up again