The Damage Will Be Incalculable...
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- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
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In this video, we delve into the recent increase in initial jobless claims and the drop in the economic surprise index, leading to recession fears and market volatility since March 2024. Contrary to popular belief, the recent S&P 500 correction was due to rising interest rates, not recession concerns. We discuss how shifts in interest rate expectations impacted the market and highlight the significance of technical indicators and the OEX open interest ratio.
DISCLAIMER: This video is for entertainment purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky; best of luck!
![[HDR][4K] Entering Gibraltar via the tunnel](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Bm8CI4a0ymo/mqdefault.jpg)
Yeild curve has been inverted 697 days.
Depends on which yield curve you look at. Yes, the 10 minus 2 has been inverted longer!
Its another bubble, everything is way overvalued. Especially real estate etc.
I think the Feds balance sheet is the key. It's like the bank in monopoly.
A bounce a dice off my ballsack, if it lands above 3 I go long. If it lands below 3 I short. Up 89% since December.
I don’t believe inflation is the main focus for markets at the moment. We are stuck at 3.5% with falling confidence that the Fed will cut rates and markets keep climbing. At this point I think it will be the labor market that will force the Fed’s hand. Once that happens markets will reverse harshly. Money managers know this and must make there gains now because they know what’s coming. Ride this momentum with them and watch the labor market.
Just letting you know, sound is terrible. Thank you for the content!
Sorry about this. It seems my microphone was damaged recently.
@@GameofTrades Sorry boutcha' mic dude. Don't listen to the haters. Shit happens. We can still hear you.
I dont think any hiatorical trends can predict whats coming. We've gone from yield curve causing recession, house prices causing recession, inflation causing recession, credit card balances causing recession etc etc. We are in uncharted waters. No one knows whats coming
It won’t predict exactly what is coming, but I think it’s a good indicator. The world changes every additional time we hit a recession so the way it affects the people will always be uncharted. Yet I think we all can say that money is getting tighter for middle class and we are starting to see the effects.
The banks do not stop lending, they still make money available, but just at a higher rate than they got it from the Fed. If this goes on too long, then people cannot afford to take a loan at a higher rate which then turns into a recession. This is what the fed is considering each month, they are walking a tightrope and know that there is a good possibility that they will hold rates at these levels for too long.
Looking at the graph that you provided, there are several notable points where Fed rates > LTIR (ie. '71, '80, '98, '19) and are NOT precluding recession periods. It would appear that these MAY be turning points, however. Can we discuss the circumstances surrounding these? As these are important points that may contradict the overall theme presented here.
and by the Fed's standards, monetary policy isn't even restrictive *enough*. they're above their 2% inflation target. so no way they're likely to let up anytime soon.
Look at transportation stocks, all down, from big to small companies, from fedex to UNP + deliquencies+ M2 falling+ beggining of unemployment and bellow than 5% savings per month for the average american.
15-20% correction, here we go.
Us stock will not go in recession but will go bearish like sideways stable for next decade
I do agree that the US is heading max speed right for a cliff but all these videos for the last year have given people the idea that everything is going to crash immediately. How many people have missed out on gains waiting for it? I feel that this party will keep going for another several years minimum.
Nice!
Crazy stat 😮
We all know what's coming. PAIN
If one is in a triple leveraged bear, HODOR. The day is coming.
I doubt the market will allow for a gradual orderly entry.
So, sit in your convictions and steele against the pain.
600 days is pretty close to other lengths of things currently ticking. Interesting.
Lots of Eurodollar money flooding into the U.S equity market and it's creating a large amount of Liquidity so the Fed is keeping rates higher longer but red flags are starting to show up in commercial real estate and foreign currencies. When something eventually breaks it will be too late for a Pivot to save the global economy and many will buy in thinking the Fed will save the day and get rekt. Timing is always the most difficult part but the smart money is treading very lightly on equities. I like TLT and lots of dry powder.
I discovered this channel yesterday came back today for a new video.
Markets only go up and recessions don’t happen anymore; they are something you only read about in history books. How do I know this? Because I’ve been in this market since 2009, you know an old timer….😊
It's going to break bad.
The title a Key and Peele reference? 😂
Going up, keep hearing this bs for last 10 years… I like the content :)
The problem is we have a federal reserve
Ok, so why doesn't the fed just lower interest rates?
Great vid
I fucking love your videos so much. Short sweet and to the point. Nothing but information no fat.
We all know what’s coming. The real market leaders tell us when the tops in
Is now a terrible time to invest 50K into a 60/40?
And we never had the M2 money supply go negative since the great depression....M2 is your rebound after a recession, this is a depression imho
Different talk now. Nancy cashing out her $120 Nvidia options soon ,then rugpull
Man market anit going go down. They just going print again
Fed decisions move our so wonderful global macroeconomic environment¡¡There's too much uncertainly right now in global markets¡¡What's going on guys??
The Pain Train is coming..woo.wooo! -Jerome Powell
Talk to the average person on the ground. Graphs don’t need to tell me anything
Yeap. It's all gunna crash like a mofo now. 👍
Could be worse than the Great Depression.
Honestly they were right, not a hard landing, but a greater then greatest depression ever ever ever
They need to put down the economy so that they will start the money printer again...hyperinflation is coming with the digital economy...the classic economy will die soon..
One thing you’re not seeing though is on your financial conditions that are tight. The only time we ever have a crash is when the black is above the green line please start paying attention to your charts. Yes, you are very smart. You are very correct but it’s not ready to be overturned yet because that black line once it passes and over steps and boundary above the green line is when we have crashes right now the black line is under, the green so we have more upside to go I believe that we will see a nine reading in my opinion and when that happens, we will go down like a sinking ship
When you think you know everything about cryptocurrencies, UNIMANTIC PROTOCOL comes along and says, 'Watch how it's done, baby!
Nice report. You could have slowed down your narrative a bit unless you were in a hurry to eat supper.
Building wealth involves developing good habits like regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments. Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate the stability of the market and precisely when the change is going to happen, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that's well prepared for any eventually, that's how some folks' been averaging 150k every 7week these past 4months according to Bloomberg.
Clickbait title.
😮😮😮😮😮
second 🎉
I can't wait for all of this to be over so I can finally find a job....
Government spending will keep this circus going. If trump gets elected we will go down like a sinking ship. If Biden gets re-elected this will continue
i like men
I think we all know more or less whats coming the only real question is when?