Point of clarification: The image on screen at 7:01 of timelines is actually for the entire production process (in years) to bring the manfufacturing of these materials online. This means it doesn't match the wording, which talks about qualification in months, rather than manufacturing ramp in years. However, the wording in the video is correct: My understanding is that cathode is usually qualified more quickly than anode. Novonix has qualified anode as quickly as 11 months, but it's usually 18-24 months for anode qualification for most companies.
I’d like to clarify that Novonix has been qualifying their Puregraphite anode material with Sanyo/Panasonic for 2 yrs prior to Novonix’s ASX announcement regarding this MOU in January 2020. As such Sanyo/Panasonic have now been qualifying Novonix’s Puregraphite anode material for 2yrs and 7 months as at today. www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200128/pdf/44dk1v7y28rf3h.pdf
Are you aware of Novonix facility in Ontario and their ongoing battery development work with Jeff Dahn and Dalhousie University. The success Jeff Dahn talks about made me quite convinced that Novonix will be a very significant player. Take care
Tim Tessman Do you mean in Halifax? Yeah this is their Battery Testing division! The way Novonix has been structured as a company is not only to provide EV battery materials for the market today, but to continue to invent and rapidly test new materials for the next 10-20yrs! Very excited about this company
I would just add to that slide from VW comparing their diesel vs EV, that was 1.6L Diesel Golf vs now being replaced e-Golf, and even then, whey they published that, it was disputed, that they made diesel look nicer than is the reality. Now they are claiming that with ID.3 they are already from factory greener with ID.3 vs Diesel Golf.
While there are a lot of RUclipsrs making BEV and Tesla centric content these days, Gordon consistently puts up information that I have not seen or read anywhere else. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate your effort and expertise being applied to collecting and communicating this information out while also making it easier for all of us to follow along with and understand. By the end, I feel like I know enough to see the possibility space for myself, rather than just taking someones word for it. I hope you enjoy making these videos as much as we enjoy watching them. Thank you so much!
Another excellent video Gordan! Great job! I still believe, as Dr Burns hinted in his communication with you that Novonix will scale production of the Puregraphite anode much faster than these presentations show. I think once the Supply Agreements are signed, they will secure US Govt loans and expand much quicker than what is stated in these presentations. These timelines were used in Novonix presentations 3 yrs ago, I think they are an old Base Production Case and don’t take into account the rapidly expanding EV battery market and Tesla’s recent announcement about actually being a battery supplier to other EV OEMs...we’ll find out soon enough though!
Jordan, you’ve hit another one out of the park! For me, your presentations have gone from informative videos to full blown seminars of what we will see in the future. Holy shit man, I can’t wait until the next one!
The point of those videos was never to become a news hawk for the graphite industry. It was to show an example of how synthetic graphite can made with an advanced process compared to a natural process.
Ha, I finally made it here and watched! So, this thing is so dense (with talga and the comparison) that I need to rewatch it if I really need to understand. I'm grateful to have a source to fill in my ignorance, thanks for doing these!
@@thelimitingfactor I believe from these 3 episodes a Discovery like channel could make a full show titled: the present and future of li ion technology. I love this age. We don't need Discovery to do this anymore, we have people, like you, who takes the effort. I'll look into your patreon.
Great video... I do believe there is more behind the scenes with Tesla, connections with Dr Burns, Jeff Dahn, DAL reseach groups and the tech they now have IP for are to strong... Bring on Battery Day!!!
Good to watch thanks. Totally agree with being antifragile by sourcing locally. Self sufficiency is the long game. But governments need to encourage this behaviour too by driving down local taxes and applying tariffs when foreign nations artificially support their own state-controlled corporations with state subsidies.
Another great video Jordan! While 2020 will largely be remembered for the sadness and economic hardship the coronavirus caused for so many around the world, I believe we will also look back on it as the year that Tesla broke-out, the death of the Internal Combustion Engine was assured and a switch to a clean energy future was finally accepted by society. This will have a profound impact on all of our lives, and those of generations to come, but battery cell technology isn’t exactly straightforward or easy for your average man to understand......not least because the technology and advances in materials are happening so quickly. Whether you’re an investor or somebody who simply cares about doing the right thing for our planet (or both), it’s important we all understand the technologies driving this change. In my mind, you Gali from Hyperchange and Ivan from EV Stock are leading the way in this regard. Your knowledge, hard work and ability to explain everything in a simple and concise way are so important and I, for one, am very grateful. Thank you! 👏🏻🇬🇧
Given that Tesla is keen to vertically integrate every element of its production I think that a company like Novonix is a likely acquisition target. Jeff Dahn’s technology has the ability to rapidly screen the attributes imparted by the use of novel materials in battery components. If Novonix’s anode material shows real gains, is scaleable for manufacture and has the right price profile then it would be logical for Tesla to acquire Novonix; the earlier they did so the lower the price they would expect to pay for them.
You do an extraordinary job on these videos. I can't imagine how much research and hard work goes into them. Your diversity and depth of understanding is amazing. Can't wait for next one. JY
Another great, informative, in-depth and entertaining video Jordan, keep them coming! Also, since other Aussies are doing it too; Greetings from the Western Island :P
Great video, may be you could interview Dr Burns so he can give us an update on how production is going to meet their samsung 500 metric tons contract which is due by the end of the year.
@@thelimitingfactor Since Novonix did a 58 million capital raising from investors, may be we could get a video showing the factory where pure graphite is being produce which will help stabilise the volatility in the share price and reassure investors and that we are not just looking at graphs and charts from presentation and can actually see them put work to words. Just my little thought. Thanks bro.
@@jclv30 My view is that the share price will remain hugely volatile for the next several years. Until it's making profit, it's speculative, and speculative stocks are prone to wild fluctuations. I do like the idea of following up with Chris and getting some video of the factory! 👍👍👍 For now, I'm scripted up through battery day and this would be something to follow up on later in the year.
Huge important note: with local synthetic materials, it’s a push to environmentally friendly sustainable materials. It has better longevity and power output as well. Mining is not a long term play. Synthetic will be the future for all these reasons. All they need is to get funding to scale and prove their model.
This will become more clear in the synthetic vs natural anode video. The analysts at top firms can't even agreeon which will dominate. I think it's a moot point. Is horses for courses as far as I can tell. Each has a clear use case. Stay tuned...
The Limiting Factor China is the biggest producer of graphite currently. Rising tensions, self reliance, resources +pollution in the long term, superior performance overall.... I’ve looked into this deeply. The current anode and cathodes used will evolve over time, and I believe there will be a transition to synthetic on that side of the battery . ‘When’ will be the bigger question. Demand will outweigh supply if using raw natural resources, especially as all auto manufacturers massively increase production of EVs in years to come (and cell phone as well), so as time passes, efficiency will naturally increase using less or alternate resources over traditional means especially if trade with china or other political intentions come to pass. Adaptation will win out. Whether it’s Tesla or another major company, someone will utilize and scale the tech rather then just try to get more usable graphite from the mines currently activated.
@@jarenb2331 How did you resolve the issue of competition from the steel industry for carbonaceous byproducts of the fossil fuel industry which will be happening at the same time as reduced availability of those high carbon materials (due to reduced fossil fuel usage)? Basically, the supply bottleneck for the raw materials needed to go into synthetic anodes. I've spoken with someone who sits across both the steel and graphite industries at the executive level and this is a major concern of his for the synthetic graphite industry. Chris Burns had a partial answer for this, but no definite strategy. I'm looking to create a balance view, but that is a serious threat in the 5+ year timeframe.
The Limiting Factor thanks for the reply. I love a good discussion. I can see an argument for the bottleneck, as you call it, though I still believe synthetic will win out over raw over a 10 or so year period. I invested in Nvx after listening to numerous interviews and deep diving the research. As you said in this video, it likely won’t even be Tesla, but it doesn’t matter. Cell phones and cars alone will demand innovation to scale to demand. Starting a mine takes far too long, let alone the quality of the graphite and where it’s coming from. I’m definitely a bull on nvx. Between the patent, recycling capabilities, and unknown factors of why it performs better (interviews from Chris Burns), it seems like the next logical step. Use the same material that’s been used on that side of the battery for decades, or find a better solution that performs better that’s not dependent on China. Massive raw materials will dominate for the foreseeable future, but I can’t help but think someone will realize the value and find a way to scale even with conditions and restrictions. Maybe I’m an optimist and things won’t change.
@@jarenb2331 Thanks for the input! I'll be suggesting several possible paths to address the issue (to try and keep it balanced). I'm pretty bullish on both Novonix and Talga. Depending on what is revealed at battery day, there might be a shift in my thinking. It depends on how Maxwell technology interacts with the anode to extend battery life (I hope this question gets answered). Natural currently isn't viable for a million mile battery with a high nickel chemistry. However, without the corrosive effect of the wet slurry solvents, it might go the distance. Huge question mark.
Anyone find any real financial info on NVX that would be similar to a 10-Q (e.g P&L and BS)? Only thing I can find on their website is a cash flow sheet.
This is the only place I can think of to ask you a question at the moment. I hope it'll be worth your time. How much can any battery technology improve before said technology gets maxed out? Why is it that legacy battery chemistries like Ni-Cd, Ni-MH and lead-acid batteries can't seem to innovate or scale their way into competing with Li-ion batteries? How far off is Li-ion batteries (whether nickel-based or iron phosphate) from arriving at a seemingly similar rut?
I'm thinking at least 500wh/kg and probably upwards of 1000/kg. Some people think well beyond that. The other chemistries can't compete because they are limited by physics. Great question, but it would require an entire video and answer properly. The key factor is cost just as much as energy density... limit is probably down around $10-20 kg vs the current $100kg for Tesla.
@@thelimitingfactor Thank you for the reply. It is a very complex topic indeed. It is interesting to think about a world where Li-ion has been maxed out like the previously-mentioned legacy battery chemistries. Namely how cheap Li-ion batteries would be and what applications that might unlock.
Good stuff as usual. Battery technology is fascinating. Thanks for pointing out the distinction Maxwell battery production and upstream material production. Since Novanix is so cheap, why not own it in case it’s implied by Tesla on battery day?
QUESTION: Re-listening to this a year later after the emerging LFP battery form growing in prominence. Will the obvious emphasis on LFP going forward impact Graphite and Novonix’s business model? Thx.
Excellent video Jordan! Novonix is not going to be the 1st synthetic graphite. Graftech(EAF) is already producing synthetic graphite in North America, but their Ultra High Power Graphite anodes are used in Electeic Arc Furnace in steel industry. They also own one of the only four needle coke production facilities in the world, a company named Seadrift.
@@thelimitingfactor there are 6 Synthetic graphite UHP EAF anode manufacturers in the world outside China I think. Graftech is the one based in USA. Others are in Japan and India I think. Here is the link for Graftech www.graftech.com/about-us/default.aspx#graphite
Where does Novonix get it's "raw material"? do they have their own mines? and then have to ship the raw graphite to their US plant. Or do they "buy" raw graphite from another miner.
Yes, they are publicly traded. I bought some a few months back, but sold all my graphite stocks before I made this video series on anode 😃. The price as tripled since then. It's a spec play, but looking promising. As always, up to you how to apportion your investment (I hate disclaimers, but necessary).
One of the things I'm working on is making high content of crystalline nanocellulose and converting it into carbon (primarily for composites) and graphite (for batteries and super capacitors). I'm trying to make the process as green and low energy as possible. For example, I'm building a super solar oven to convert it into carbon (I'm waiting on an evacuated Solar tube to finish the project), and then using insulated microwave kiln to covert it into graphite. The main problem is sulfuric acid and finding better and less corrosive chemicals. Enzymes can work, but they take much longer and are more expensive. I'm going to be experimenting with whether or not different cultures like kefir, might be able to use the soft cellulose as a food source. If that works at all, it would become an extremely green process and even better and cheaper than enzymes. Anyways, point is, if I can do a lot of this at home with very simple equipment and not a lot of in depth education, then certainly industries can scale up these processes and make them much more efficient. I'm convinced that graphitized CNC holds great promise as a graphite source for batteries and super capacitors and carbon for composites. Why, because the highly crystalline nature of the base material and that it's already nanoscale (and becomes more so when graphitized). And cellulose is probably the most abundant natural resource on the planet. While I'm using a biomass source that contains high amounts of crystalline cellulose to begin with--industries are focusing on wood pulp and wood and cellulose waste products. There is A LOT of the latter. Think of all the newspaper, cardboard, jeans and other cottons based clothing, sawdust, etc, etc that gets thrown away. Rather than digging huge holes into the Earth, which is extremely energy intensive, why not focusing on converting all this cellulose biomass into CNC's and figuring out ways of low energy conversion into carbons and graphites???
Any ideas on the recent announcement concerning Harper furnaces, and the delay in production? Seems something must have gone a bit awry during initial production trials?
Hey Jordan... Have you done any research on Gilsonite or Leonardite? My understanding is that both materials are being evaluated as an additive to anodes as a charging accelerator.
So exciting to have some reasons for optimism in a time that every other metric of the Earth's ecological demise shatters records...much less hope. Thx.
Great video again thanks Jordan. Even though some say it's in layman's terms, I struggle to hold on to the chemistry. Praps that's why I gave it up at school aged 12. Anyway, let me cheekily ask you to consider doing a similar video on Nano 1 (NNOMF) ...and now that I've asked I'll go and try to look into it - and compare the two companies - harder myself. I WILL understand!
NANO ONE HAS SINGLE CRYSTAL COATING for LFP and NMC 811 go to nano home page key NEWS JUNE-4-2020,JUNE-24-2020 AND APRIL-2-2019. VOLKSWAGEN AND PULEAD ARE WORKING with NANO ONE
It's on my mind. It seems like a very promising company but may be a while before it gets its own video. Possibly a good idea to do an interview in the meantime. There needs to be a few other channels covering this stuff in depth. There is one starting up by a PHD candidate I"ve been corresponding with. I'll be interested to see what he turns up!
Like with your other videos i am utterly impressed by the rigour you tackle topics with! 💪 Do you have any plans on doing a deep dive on Nano One Materials (nno, nnomf, nno.v)?
@@thelimitingfactor got it, I guess I'll keep my $$ split between the two as it looks like NNOMF will be first and we'll see if Novonix turns out to be better later....
Love your vids Gordon, one question I haven't been able to find an answer to is what feed stock NVX pure graphite will use... Fossil fuels, natural graphite or any natural carbon source?
Fossil fuels - coal and petroleum byproducts. I mentinoned it briefly in this video, but it could have been confused with China. This will be more clear in the synthetic vs natural anode video. 😀 My concern about this is that these materials will become more scarce in the face of steel demand and a failing fossil fuel industry.
@@thelimitingfactor haha I did catch that the third time round... It would be interesting to see how adaptable the feed stock is... Plastic, tyre and any other high carbon byproduct/waste materials would be a great alternative feed and would boost the envio credentials. I have seen a few companies working on this type of thing.
Yes, they do. I think it's standard practice amongst the leading players to dope with a bit of silicon. I think this what NVX has planned. They haven't made mentioned of a 'high-loaded silicon anode' so I didn't drill down further. High loaded usually means greater than 10% Si, which would be an achievement.
Hey mate, I am very bullish on Novonix for the next years. Could you tell me where you got those analysis and pictures? I want to promote the company myself as well
Great work Jordan! I do have a question though - do you think Tesla's recent move to LFP in base model 3 and Y will start a trend for the market to move in that direction? Can LFP use single-crystal cathode or PUREgraphite?
I've discussed this with Jordan elsewhere. The issue with LiFePo4 is that even if you use new tech, it will only approach the density of the existing Tesla 2170 cells. It's difficult to cram any more between the wheels on smaller (cheaper) cars, plus the weight is an issue, and you can't get the output for the bigger/ higher performance cars. The "low" range 3 may be the sweet spot. Imo, the next Tesla cell will bring the costs down so much that it will become the standard, I think in a modular pack, with fewer cells in the box for smaller vehicles. The economy of scale will make it worthwhile..... But that's just me 😁
@@rogerstarkey5390 Thanks for the reply Roger. I agree that LFP with modified pack construction is one of the things Musk will announce on Battery day at a cost that will shock people. That will become the new standard setup for "Base" range cars ~300 miles. And the higher energy density batteries will be for more expensive models...which leaves me wondering if demand for NMC batteries will be less than the expected 10x boom over the next 10 years if the majority of batteries made for cars are now going to be LFP. That's why I want to know if Single-crystal cathode tech (DPMG) works with LFP.
The great benefit of LFP is that it's already a million miles chemistry. The cost benefit of dpmg single crystal with synthetic anode may not be worthwhile. It may happen in time. Another wild card is Maxwell tech... If it really does double cycle life Tesla may be able to get long life batteries through that path, and they'll definitely be cheaper.
@@thelimitingfactor We're back to the the accumulated benefit of the incremental improvement. I still think those "RR" cells are going to be cheaper than we think, accounting for the density increase. Also, with LFP, could they get sufficient range into a smaller car? Would they have the Honda problem? Could they end up with just one car in the middle of the pack with the LFP technology sweet spot? If "RR" cells have say 50% more density, but being built "in house" are only 30% more expensive, they can reduce the quantity by 30% and be level on cell cost..... With less weight.
@@teaisgoodforme4919 I don't think LFP *will* be the announcement. I think the modified pack will be for new construction 2170 cells. The big advantage? The could make a pack casing which fits a model 3, but reduce the cell quantity for that car making it cheaper/ lighter. They can fill that *same pack* up and achieve 100+kWh, with plenty of space to fit in the standard S/X, just alter the mounts. Plaid? Either an extended pack, or a second low volume module, next to the "standard' pack. Advantage? They only build *one* cell type, *one* pack type and likely *one* BMS..... Economy of scale, simply adjust cell quantity, it's the direction they seem to be moving, everything modular.
@@thelimitingfactor thanks a lot , do you have a video on how their graphite is made and what their synthetic graphite is made from ? I had a quick glimpse at petroleum coke but still don't understand it much. and also if you're looking at any stocks under 1 billion market cap please just say the ticker and I can go from their.
I don't think so - so many other avenues and Novonix is basically a family owned business. There would have to be a pretty big offer on the table. Worth checking out the discussion on 'The Limiting Factor 2'
This one was more of an investment video, but I tried to squeeze some insights in there about what it takes to get a product from 'for sale' into a product.
@@rogerstarkey5390 The fog of war is still pretty thick. I'm thinking that Doug's estimate of 2028 for the first solid-state gigafactory is about right. Then years of scaling from there. Roadrunner has a healthy run ahead of it. 😀
Yeah after watching Gali from hyperchange doing overview of this company I said hey this company looks interesting. Decided to get about 250 shares back then. It's a small part of my portfolio. But I guess maybe I should buy some more shares. This would be a long-term hodl. Good business prospectus similar to Hylion, Arcimoto and yes obviously Tesla. Doesn't look like a straight fraud like NKLA.
I love reasonable spec plays. I'd rather own 5 spec plays with 10x opportunities, even knowing that 1 or 2 might fail, than a whole portfolio of typical companies.
@@thelimitingfactor Just found another spec play from twitter. Gigametal. Catchy name and as Elon said, they need a whole lot of it. Need to do some digging, no pun intended into this company. 0.26 a share right now, 15 million market cap. Looks noice from surface look. Thanks for the comment, keep up the work.
Jordan thanks for another great if you have a lot of free time on your hands you should look 👀 into DeepGreen medal Inc. they are looking at picking up rocks off the ocean floor and make batteries 🔋 out of them.
"how much revenue will Novonix be capable of in 2030 at 100,000 tonnes per year?" - TLF Found this on an Aussie trading forum *. Should be helpful in answering your question above: i.ibb.co/MC71st5/NVX-11k-Sales-5k-Cost-900-000tpa-Terafactory-Contract.jpg * Not vouching for the accuracy of this information :)
Point of clarification: The image on screen at 7:01 of timelines is actually for the entire production process (in years) to bring the manfufacturing of these materials online. This means it doesn't match the wording, which talks about qualification in months, rather than manufacturing ramp in years. However, the wording in the video is correct: My understanding is that cathode is usually qualified more quickly than anode. Novonix has qualified anode as quickly as 11 months, but it's usually 18-24 months for anode qualification for most companies.
I’d like to clarify that Novonix has been qualifying their Puregraphite anode material with Sanyo/Panasonic for 2 yrs prior to Novonix’s ASX announcement regarding this MOU in January 2020. As such Sanyo/Panasonic have now been qualifying Novonix’s Puregraphite anode material for 2yrs and 7 months as at today. www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200128/pdf/44dk1v7y28rf3h.pdf
Are you aware of Novonix facility in Ontario and their ongoing battery development work with Jeff Dahn and Dalhousie University. The success Jeff Dahn talks about made me quite convinced that Novonix will be a very significant player.
Take care
Tim Tessman Do you mean in Halifax? Yeah this is their Battery Testing division! The way Novonix has been structured as a company is not only to provide EV battery materials for the market today, but to continue to invent and rapidly test new materials for the next 10-20yrs! Very excited about this company
I suppose It helps they designed their own test equipment first
I would just add to that slide from VW comparing their diesel vs EV, that was 1.6L Diesel Golf vs now being replaced e-Golf, and even then, whey they published that, it was disputed, that they made diesel look nicer than is the reality. Now they are claiming that with ID.3 they are already from factory greener with ID.3 vs Diesel Golf.
While there are a lot of RUclipsrs making BEV and Tesla centric content these days, Gordon consistently puts up information that I have not seen or read anywhere else. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate your effort and expertise being applied to collecting and communicating this information out while also making it easier for all of us to follow along with and understand. By the end, I feel like I know enough to see the possibility space for myself, rather than just taking someones word for it. I hope you enjoy making these videos as much as we enjoy watching them. Thank you so much!
Thanks Adam! That's what I'm going for...filling in the blanks for myself, and hopefully others in the process.
Yes, thank you very much Gordon
The quality of content we can now get from "amateurs" is stunning.
Heck yea! Thanks for releasing this video man!
You bet! Thanks for the motivation to clean up my SEO.
I’m glad your able to keep putting out all these videos! So informative, I love it!
🤜🤛 You are most welcome my man!
Another excellent video Gordan! Great job! I still believe, as Dr Burns hinted in his communication with you that Novonix will scale production of the Puregraphite anode much faster than these presentations show. I think once the Supply Agreements are signed, they will secure US Govt loans and expand much quicker than what is stated in these presentations. These timelines were used in Novonix presentations 3 yrs ago, I think they are an old Base Production Case and don’t take into account the rapidly expanding EV battery market and Tesla’s recent announcement about actually being a battery supplier to other EV OEMs...we’ll find out soon enough though!
Totally agree!
The political situation with China is only going to be an advantage for Novonix moving forward
Thanks from Australia. Informative and enjoyable!
Perfect timing !Just finish your solid state interview , onto the next 😁
If you are one of the lucky few that gets to attend battery day and ask questions, you should be studying all of these videos over and over again.
As always very informative. I probably need to watch at least two more times to fully understand.
Jordan, you’ve hit another one out of the park! For me, your presentations have gone from informative videos to full blown seminars of what we will see in the future. Holy shit man, I can’t wait until the next one!
The response I get from the community makes it all worthwhile 😀🙏🙏🙏
I Love this channel! There's always deep, real information and not so much speculation and rehashing of information as in most other news channels.
I think i am another step closer to my PHD! Cheers mate!
This is a company to watch. I hope you can do a follow up video in the future about this company.
Thank you soo much! You should be on the history channel!
Best Novonix video yet. Thanks!
🤜🤛 Thanks man!
If they use renewable power to complete the DPMG process (Tennessee plant) this will be HUGE for the company and ESG institutional investors !!
This aged well ! I through some coin down a year ago on this company after watching this vid; and quite happy I did.
I'll be taking a look at it. Thanks
Awesome Deep Dive Jordan! Big fan of your rationale.
Thanks dude! I appreciate the support.
Such an awesome video!! The information comes trough super clear! Thanks :)
So glad to hear that! By the time these get published, I've been through them a dozen times and it all just turns into mush in my brain, lol.
I m here cos David Quan, man you are super analyst. Loved the video.
Bought 13000 shares last week- what great timing to see this!
Lol, awesome 🤜🤛🔥
Such great information and presented so smoothly. Loving the content, and learning so much !
Sure would like to see an update on Novonix soon. They appear to be having production issues / delays.
The point of those videos was never to become a news hawk for the graphite industry.
It was to show an example of how synthetic graphite can made with an advanced process compared to a natural process.
Ha, I finally made it here and watched! So, this thing is so dense (with talga and the comparison) that I need to rewatch it if I really need to understand. I'm grateful to have a source to fill in my ignorance, thanks for doing these!
You're most welcome!
@@thelimitingfactor I believe from these 3 episodes a Discovery like channel could make a full show titled: the present and future of li ion technology. I love this age. We don't need Discovery to do this anymore, we have people, like you, who takes the effort. I'll look into your patreon.
@@Sekir80 Thanks man! Yeah, no more appealing to the least common denominator and focus groups!
@@thelimitingfactor I've never thought about that but you are very right on point! Geez!
Great video... I do believe there is more behind the scenes with Tesla, connections with Dr Burns, Jeff Dahn, DAL reseach groups and the tech they now have IP for are to strong... Bring on Battery Day!!!
I'd love it if there were deeper connections! I like it when the people I like are working together.
Thank you very much for this. 💪
My pleasure Ronaldo!
Thankyou for posting mate! Love your style, happy I found the channel :)
Thanks for the support!
This is a company to watch. I hope you can do a follow up video about this company. Very interesting!
Good to watch thanks. Totally agree with being antifragile by sourcing locally. Self sufficiency is the long game. But governments need to encourage this behaviour too by driving down local taxes and applying tariffs when foreign nations artificially support their own state-controlled corporations with state subsidies.
Great points! Thanks for stopping by!
Thank you so much, was waiting for this.
Great info. Appreciate all the knowledge. Forward to the Future..!!
Another great video Jordan! While 2020 will largely be remembered for the sadness and economic hardship the coronavirus caused for so many around the world, I believe we will also look back on it as the year that Tesla broke-out, the death of the Internal Combustion Engine was assured and a switch to a clean energy future was finally accepted by society. This will have a profound impact on all of our lives, and those of generations to come, but battery cell technology isn’t exactly straightforward or easy for your average man to understand......not least because the technology and advances in materials are happening so quickly. Whether you’re an investor or somebody who simply cares about doing the right thing for our planet (or both), it’s important we all understand the technologies driving this change. In my mind, you Gali from Hyperchange and Ivan from EV Stock are leading the way in this regard. Your knowledge, hard work and ability to explain everything in a simple and concise way are so important and I, for one, am very grateful. Thank you! 👏🏻🇬🇧
Thanks for your support!
Given that Tesla is keen to vertically integrate every element of its production I think that a company like Novonix is a likely acquisition target. Jeff Dahn’s technology has the ability to rapidly screen the attributes imparted by the use of novel materials in battery components. If Novonix’s anode material shows real gains, is scaleable for manufacture and has the right price profile then it would be logical for Tesla to acquire Novonix; the earlier they did so the lower the price they would expect to pay for them.
You do an extraordinary job on these videos. I can't imagine how much research and hard work goes into them. Your diversity and depth of understanding is amazing. Can't wait for next one.
JY
Novonix has now raised their synthetic graphite anode production target to 150,000 tonne/year in 2030.
Another great, informative, in-depth and entertaining video Jordan, keep them coming!
Also, since other Aussies are doing it too;
Greetings from the Western Island :P
LOL, greetings from that island off the coast of Australia or that sometimes doesn't even exist on maps at all.
This channel is amazing! Thanks for all your hard work
Thanks Kalen!
Great video, may be you could interview Dr Burns so he can give us an update on how production is going to meet their samsung 500 metric tons contract which is due by the end of the year.
Great idea!
@@thelimitingfactor Since Novonix did a 58 million capital raising from investors, may be we could get a video showing the factory where pure graphite is being produce which will help stabilise the volatility in the share price and reassure investors and that we are not just looking at graphs and charts from presentation and can actually see them put work to words. Just my little thought. Thanks bro.
@@jclv30 My view is that the share price will remain hugely volatile for the next several years. Until it's making profit, it's speculative, and speculative stocks are prone to wild fluctuations.
I do like the idea of following up with Chris and getting some video of the factory! 👍👍👍 For now, I'm scripted up through battery day and this would be something to follow up on later in the year.
The Limiting Factor True, keep the videos coming bud. Good job.
Huge important note: with local synthetic materials, it’s a push to environmentally friendly sustainable materials. It has better longevity and power output as well. Mining is not a long term play. Synthetic will be the future for all these reasons. All they need is to get funding to scale and prove their model.
This will become more clear in the synthetic vs natural anode video. The analysts at top firms can't even agreeon which will dominate. I think it's a moot point. Is horses for courses as far as I can tell. Each has a clear use case. Stay tuned...
The Limiting Factor China is the biggest producer of graphite currently. Rising tensions, self reliance, resources +pollution in the long term, superior performance overall.... I’ve looked into this deeply. The current anode and cathodes used will evolve over time, and I believe there will be a transition to synthetic on that side of the battery . ‘When’ will be the bigger question. Demand will outweigh supply if using raw natural resources, especially as all auto manufacturers massively increase production of EVs in years to come (and cell phone as well), so as time passes, efficiency will naturally increase using less or alternate resources over traditional means especially if trade with china or other political intentions come to pass. Adaptation will win out. Whether it’s Tesla or another major company, someone will utilize and scale the tech rather then just try to get more usable graphite from the mines currently activated.
@@jarenb2331 How did you resolve the issue of competition from the steel industry for carbonaceous byproducts of the fossil fuel industry which will be happening at the same time as reduced availability of those high carbon materials (due to reduced fossil fuel usage)? Basically, the supply bottleneck for the raw materials needed to go into synthetic anodes.
I've spoken with someone who sits across both the steel and graphite industries at the executive level and this is a major concern of his for the synthetic graphite industry.
Chris Burns had a partial answer for this, but no definite strategy. I'm looking to create a balance view, but that is a serious threat in the 5+ year timeframe.
The Limiting Factor thanks for the reply. I love a good discussion. I can see an argument for the bottleneck, as you call it, though I still believe synthetic will win out over raw over a 10 or so year period. I invested in Nvx after listening to numerous interviews and deep diving the research. As you said in this video, it likely won’t even be Tesla, but it doesn’t matter. Cell phones and cars alone will demand innovation to scale to demand. Starting a mine takes far too long, let alone the quality of the graphite and where it’s coming from. I’m definitely a bull on nvx. Between the patent, recycling capabilities, and unknown factors of why it performs better (interviews from Chris Burns), it seems like the next logical step. Use the same material that’s been used on that side of the battery for decades, or find a better solution that performs better that’s not dependent on China. Massive raw materials will dominate for the foreseeable future, but I can’t help but think someone will realize the value and find a way to scale even with conditions and restrictions. Maybe I’m an optimist and things won’t change.
@@jarenb2331 Thanks for the input! I'll be suggesting several possible paths to address the issue (to try and keep it balanced). I'm pretty bullish on both Novonix and Talga. Depending on what is revealed at battery day, there might be a shift in my thinking. It depends on how Maxwell technology interacts with the anode to extend battery life (I hope this question gets answered). Natural currently isn't viable for a million mile battery with a high nickel chemistry. However, without the corrosive effect of the wet slurry solvents, it might go the distance. Huge question mark.
Wow this is a very informative mini series. Thanks for your hard work!!!
Your most welcome!
Yay! NOVONIX!
Great video Gordan! Keep up the great reseach and content.
NVX is quite promising. Hope it goes well with Samsung
10:45 thanks for explaining
My pleasure 🤜🤛
Things to do, don't watch
Things to do, don't watch
Things to do, don't watch
Things to do, don't watch
Bugger!!
Anyone find any real financial info on NVX that would be similar to a 10-Q (e.g P&L and BS)? Only thing I can find on their website is a cash flow sheet.
Excellent summary 👌 - Thank you.
This is an absolutely excellent video. Thank you very much!
Sure thing! Thanks for watching
This is the only place I can think of to ask you a question at the moment. I hope it'll be worth your time.
How much can any battery technology improve before said technology gets maxed out? Why is it that legacy battery chemistries like Ni-Cd, Ni-MH and lead-acid batteries can't seem to innovate or scale their way into competing with Li-ion batteries? How far off is Li-ion batteries (whether nickel-based or iron phosphate) from arriving at a seemingly similar rut?
I'm thinking at least 500wh/kg and probably upwards of 1000/kg. Some people think well beyond that. The other chemistries can't compete because they are limited by physics. Great question, but it would require an entire video and answer properly. The key factor is cost just as much as energy density... limit is probably down around $10-20 kg vs the current $100kg for Tesla.
@@thelimitingfactor Thank you for the reply. It is a very complex topic indeed. It is interesting to think about a world where Li-ion has been maxed out like the previously-mentioned legacy battery chemistries. Namely how cheap Li-ion batteries would be and what applications that might unlock.
Excellent channel.
Good stuff as usual. Battery technology is fascinating. Thanks for pointing out the distinction Maxwell battery production and upstream material production. Since Novanix is so cheap, why not own it in case it’s implied by Tesla on battery day?
Would love to now more about this program.
QUESTION: Re-listening to this a year later after the emerging LFP battery form growing in prominence. Will the obvious emphasis on LFP going forward impact Graphite and Novonix’s business model? Thx.
Thanks for such detailed information.
Glad it was helpful!
Excellent video Jordan! Novonix is not going to be the 1st synthetic graphite. Graftech(EAF) is already producing synthetic graphite in North America, but their Ultra High Power Graphite anodes are used in Electeic Arc Furnace in steel industry. They also own one of the only four needle coke production facilities in the world, a company named Seadrift.
INteresting! So it's the first synthetic 'anode' then?
@@thelimitingfactor there are 6 Synthetic graphite UHP EAF anode manufacturers in the world outside China I think. Graftech is the one based in USA. Others are in Japan and India I think. Here is the link for Graftech www.graftech.com/about-us/default.aspx#graphite
Where does Novonix get it's "raw material"? do they have their own mines? and then have to ship the raw graphite to their US plant. Or do they "buy" raw graphite from another miner.
Fossil fuel cokes. My understanding is that they don't have their own mines.
Thank you
Superb
Thank you!
So, let me get this straight. It'll make A LOT OF SENSE in buying Novonix stock in the near future, as much as one can. Are they public trading?
Yes, they are publicly traded. I bought some a few months back, but sold all my graphite stocks before I made this video series on anode 😃. The price as tripled since then. It's a spec play, but looking promising. As always, up to you how to apportion your investment (I hate disclaimers, but necessary).
One of the things I'm working on is making high content of crystalline nanocellulose and converting it into carbon (primarily for composites) and graphite (for batteries and super capacitors). I'm trying to make the process as green and low energy as possible. For example, I'm building a super solar oven to convert it into carbon (I'm waiting on an evacuated Solar tube to finish the project), and then using insulated microwave kiln to covert it into graphite.
The main problem is sulfuric acid and finding better and less corrosive chemicals. Enzymes can work, but they take much longer and are more expensive. I'm going to be experimenting with whether or not different cultures like kefir, might be able to use the soft cellulose as a food source. If that works at all, it would become an extremely green process and even better and cheaper than enzymes.
Anyways, point is, if I can do a lot of this at home with very simple equipment and not a lot of in depth education, then certainly industries can scale up these processes and make them much more efficient. I'm convinced that graphitized CNC holds great promise as a graphite source for batteries and super capacitors and carbon for composites. Why, because the highly crystalline nature of the base material and that it's already nanoscale (and becomes more so when graphitized). And cellulose is probably the most abundant natural resource on the planet.
While I'm using a biomass source that contains high amounts of crystalline cellulose to begin with--industries are focusing on wood pulp and wood and cellulose waste products. There is A LOT of the latter. Think of all the newspaper, cardboard, jeans and other cottons based clothing, sawdust, etc, etc that gets thrown away. Rather than digging huge holes into the Earth, which is extremely energy intensive, why not focusing on converting all this cellulose biomass into CNC's and figuring out ways of low energy conversion into carbons and graphites???
Dude, you're a mad scientist. Very cool!
@@thelimitingfactor Lol thanks; trying to become one at least.
Any ideas on the recent announcement concerning Harper furnaces, and the delay in production? Seems something must have gone a bit awry during initial production trials?
I haven't been following that closely. It's a new process with a new company, I'd be surprised if everything goes smoothly.
Hey Jordan... Have you done any research on Gilsonite or Leonardite? My understanding is that both materials are being evaluated as an additive to anodes as a charging accelerator.
It's bunk
This is worth at least a small percentage of your portfolio
Oh man, bought 550 Shares @ 1€, its 0,645 now. I just hope soo much that it will get to 2€
Awesomeness!
Germany also pushing to become a profitable location for battery production as they see the trend so options for getting into eu market in a big way
I'm excited to see what happens in Germany now that they have fire under their butts. When that machine gets moving, it should be impressive.
So exciting to have some reasons for optimism in a time that every other metric of the Earth's ecological demise shatters records...much less hope. Thx.
Best
Awesome video!
amazing content. subscribed!
Welcome aboard! 🔥
Great video again thanks Jordan. Even though some say it's in layman's terms, I struggle to hold on to the chemistry. Praps that's why I gave it up at school aged 12. Anyway, let me cheekily ask you to consider doing a similar video on Nano 1 (NNOMF) ...and now that I've asked I'll go and try to look into it - and compare the two companies - harder myself. I WILL understand!
NANO ONE HAS SINGLE CRYSTAL COATING for LFP and NMC 811 go to nano home page key NEWS JUNE-4-2020,JUNE-24-2020 AND APRIL-2-2019. VOLKSWAGEN AND PULEAD ARE WORKING with NANO ONE
It's on my mind. It seems like a very promising company but may be a while before it gets its own video. Possibly a good idea to do an interview in the meantime. There needs to be a few other channels covering this stuff in depth. There is one starting up by a PHD candidate I"ve been corresponding with. I'll be interested to see what he turns up!
@@ray5590 Thanks,helpful to get me started
Like with your other videos i am utterly impressed by the rigour you tackle topics with! 💪
Do you have any plans on doing a deep dive on Nano One Materials (nno, nnomf, nno.v)?
It's on my mind 😀. My list is long.
@@thelimitingfactor well, you are quite busy for the next ten years, i figure! Haha
Good stuff
👍
Ganfeng Lithium OTC ticker GNENF
Do you have any insight into how this single crystal tech compares to that of Nano One Technologies tech?
Nope! All of it is trade secret. In fact, Novonix doesn't even have a product yet. It's still in development.
@@thelimitingfactor got it, I guess I'll keep my $$ split between the two as it looks like NNOMF will be first and we'll see if Novonix turns out to be better later....
Love your vids Gordon, one question I haven't been able to find an answer to is what feed stock NVX pure graphite will use... Fossil fuels, natural graphite or any natural carbon source?
Fossil fuels - coal and petroleum byproducts. I mentinoned it briefly in this video, but it could have been confused with China. This will be more clear in the synthetic vs natural anode video. 😀 My concern about this is that these materials will become more scarce in the face of steel demand and a failing fossil fuel industry.
@@thelimitingfactor haha I did catch that the third time round... It would be interesting to see how adaptable the feed stock is... Plastic, tyre and any other high carbon byproduct/waste materials would be a great alternative feed and would boost the envio credentials. I have seen a few companies working on this type of thing.
@@mickm7422 ;) I'll be making a comment to this effect at the end of the synthetic vs natural video.
@@thelimitingfactor look forward it! Thanks again, love your channel.
does anybody know why Novonix Ltd stock is up 170% today?
Osam
What about silicon anodes or silicon anode enhancement? Doesn’t Tesla already have anodes with some silicon in it?
Yes, they do. I think it's standard practice amongst the leading players to dope with a bit of silicon. I think this what NVX has planned. They haven't made mentioned of a 'high-loaded silicon anode' so I didn't drill down further. High loaded usually means greater than 10% Si, which would be an achievement.
Hey mate, I am very bullish on Novonix for the next years.
Could you tell me where you got those analysis and pictures? I want to promote the company myself as well
It depends on which one you're talking about 🤠. This was a 4 month project. I scoured hundreds of sites.
@@thelimitingfactor haha I already found some stuff myself, great work, keep it up👍
Great work Jordan! I do have a question though - do you think Tesla's recent move to LFP in base model 3 and Y will start a trend for the market to move in that direction? Can LFP use single-crystal cathode or PUREgraphite?
I've discussed this with Jordan elsewhere.
The issue with LiFePo4 is that even if you use new tech, it will only approach the density of the existing Tesla 2170 cells.
It's difficult to cram any more between the wheels on smaller (cheaper) cars, plus the weight is an issue, and you can't get the output for the bigger/ higher performance cars.
The "low" range 3 may be the sweet spot.
Imo, the next Tesla cell will bring the costs down so much that it will become the standard, I think in a modular pack, with fewer cells in the box for smaller vehicles. The economy of scale will make it worthwhile..... But that's just me 😁
@@rogerstarkey5390 Thanks for the reply Roger. I agree that LFP with modified pack construction is one of the things Musk will announce on Battery day at a cost that will shock people. That will become the new standard setup for "Base" range cars ~300 miles. And the higher energy density batteries will be for more expensive models...which leaves me wondering if demand for NMC batteries will be less than the expected 10x boom over the next 10 years if the majority of batteries made for cars are now going to be LFP. That's why I want to know if Single-crystal cathode tech (DPMG) works with LFP.
The great benefit of LFP is that it's already a million miles chemistry. The cost benefit of dpmg single crystal with synthetic anode may not be worthwhile. It may happen in time. Another wild card is Maxwell tech... If it really does double cycle life Tesla may be able to get long life batteries through that path, and they'll definitely be cheaper.
@@thelimitingfactor
We're back to the the accumulated benefit of the incremental improvement.
I still think those "RR" cells are going to be cheaper than we think, accounting for the density increase.
Also, with LFP, could they get sufficient range into a smaller car? Would they have the Honda problem?
Could they end up with just one car in the middle of the pack with the LFP technology sweet spot?
If "RR" cells have say 50% more density, but being built "in house" are only 30% more expensive, they can reduce the quantity by 30% and be level on cell cost..... With less weight.
@@teaisgoodforme4919
I don't think LFP *will* be the announcement.
I think the modified pack will be for new construction 2170 cells.
The big advantage? The could make a pack casing which fits a model 3, but reduce the cell quantity for that car making it cheaper/ lighter.
They can fill that *same pack* up and achieve 100+kWh, with plenty of space to fit in the standard S/X, just alter the mounts.
Plaid? Either an extended pack, or a second low volume module, next to the "standard' pack.
Advantage? They only build *one* cell type, *one* pack type and likely *one* BMS..... Economy of scale, simply adjust cell quantity, it's the direction they seem to be moving, everything modular.
I would like to invest small sums in Novanix and Talga. How do i do that as a Swede?
Not sure! It depends on what trading platforms are available in Sweden.
Where did you get your price per tonne at 8:46 from ? and also there production cost price?
Price per tonne was from a research paper titled 'the success stories of graphite' and the production cost was directly from Chris.
It's also worth noting that Chris reviewed the script and video.
@@thelimitingfactor thanks a lot , do you have a video on how their graphite is made and what their synthetic graphite is made from ? I had a quick glimpse at petroleum coke but still don't understand it much. and also if you're looking at any stocks under 1 billion market cap please just say the ticker and I can go from their.
@@thelimitingfactor and really love the hydro power factor, from Novonix thanks for pointing that out
@@thelimitingfactor oh an interesting adobe add came up just watching your video again ;)
The opposite of Daytrading
Might Musk buy Novonix?
I don't think so - so many other avenues and Novonix is basically a family owned business. There would have to be a pretty big offer on the table. Worth checking out the discussion on 'The Limiting Factor 2'
The Limiting Factor thank you.
@@thelimitingfactor What!? A second channel, I'm in!
@@MrVelociraptor75 😁 A channel for stream of thought
@@thelimitingfactor lol another channel, subbed!
Ok. First watch complete, as usual 🤔🤔🤔🤔
This one was more of an investment video, but I tried to squeeze some insights in there about what it takes to get a product from 'for sale' into a product.
@@thelimitingfactor
4-5 years of Roadrunner, then a perfect transition to Solid State?
@@rogerstarkey5390 The fog of war is still pretty thick. I'm thinking that Doug's estimate of 2028 for the first solid-state gigafactory is about right. Then years of scaling from there. Roadrunner has a healthy run ahead of it. 😀
@@thelimitingfactor
I'm waiting for a product from
"The Acme Battery Company"!
😁😁
@@rogerstarkey5390 LOL, I'm picking up what you're putting down.
Yeah after watching Gali from hyperchange doing overview of this company I said hey this company looks interesting. Decided to get about 250 shares back then. It's a small part of my portfolio. But I guess maybe I should buy some more shares. This would be a long-term hodl. Good business prospectus similar to Hylion, Arcimoto and yes obviously Tesla. Doesn't look like a straight fraud like NKLA.
I love reasonable spec plays. I'd rather own 5 spec plays with 10x opportunities, even knowing that 1 or 2 might fail, than a whole portfolio of typical companies.
@@thelimitingfactor Just found another spec play from twitter. Gigametal. Catchy name and as Elon said, they need a whole lot of it. Need to do some digging, no pun intended into this company. 0.26 a share right now, 15 million market cap. Looks noice from surface look. Thanks for the comment, keep up the work.
@@wadafruit Nice! Thanks for the heads up.
Solid-state batteries are coming.
Will that make novonix obsolete?
I could listen to Mr Factor read the dictionary #voicelikebutter 🤓
Lol! 🙏🧈
Public traded?
Yup
Thanks Gordon
Have stock in both NVX & TLG
Will aim to post your video on www.hotcopper.com NVX.AX
Jordan thanks for another great if you have a lot of free time on your hands you should look 👀 into DeepGreen medal Inc. they are looking at picking up rocks off the ocean floor and make batteries 🔋 out of them.
I'll check it out! Thanks for the tip.
Tomorrow
"how much revenue will Novonix be capable of in 2030 at 100,000 tonnes per year?" - TLF
Found this on an Aussie trading forum *. Should be helpful in answering your question above: i.ibb.co/MC71st5/NVX-11k-Sales-5k-Cost-900-000tpa-Terafactory-Contract.jpg
* Not vouching for the accuracy of this information :)
** this is modeled with $11,000 USD/tonne
The noxious zoology congruently measure because cord longitudinally twist along a gaping otter. quick, furry furtive thing