As Argentinian born i approve this assessment. Living in Europe i can tell you that Argentina will be better off (it made all the stupid decisions possble) buy the 2030’s than Europe if they don’t curve immigration of muslims
Hi, Argentine here (also Kiwi and english descendant): Nobody cares about Malvinas beyond the concept and pain it represents. Forever considered to be ours... and that's it. Argentina has 0 military forces. 0 ambitions of doing anything military in the region. The country is experimenting perhaps its biggest shift in history and it's too soon to see if will make it in one piece or not. The Peronism is super weak and if it continues like this, will become extinct at some point. Argentina is very good a maths btw, just not as a nation but as individual politicians (unfortunately). The country is now trying to get aligned with USA and the Western allies (after almost a century of being on the opposite side). We'll see what happens in this crazy world.
@@billpetersen298 Argentina just made the first major step toward that shift. In the past 3 weeks the new govt has launched hundreds of changes that are now being debated in Congress... and there are hundreds more to come. All aiming for a less govt regulated country. It's a massive experiment and certainly has many countries paying attention to it: if a country like Argentina (devastated, bad with numbers etc) can pull that off... then everybody else can as well.
@@JimNZ Yes, that’s what i wanted to hear. With the election of Milei. How much power does he have, how much opposition? Is he just a different kind of crazy? His policy sounds good. But pulling off big change, wont be easy. There will be pushback, when cuts happen. Interesting times.
I find these opinionated pieces to camera interesting but it is necessary to take them with a very large pinch of salt. As others have already pointed out, this latest is riddled with inaccuracies and his biases show through. He runs the risk of being perceived as more of a propagandist than a neutral analyst.
Big fan of Peter, i live in Rio Grande do Sul state of Brasil and we border Argentina, trust me we will not separate! Didnt happen in the past for sure will not happen now. We have the oldest population of Brasil
Peru, just like Argentina, has the tremendous capacity to squander its wealth and opportunities. The last few years were a perfect example. The ignorance of CIA agent Zeihan on so many subjects it's just amazing! 🙉🙈🙊
At least Peru is able to jail their corrupt politicians. Unfortunately, they continue to elect corrupt politicians. Since in-laws are Peruvians, it continues to roll downhill. And there is no stopping it.
When I lived in Argentina, I had many Argentines say to me (an American) that the worst thing they ever did was to expel the Brits in the 1800's. They said that if Argentina had stayed under Colonial rule, we would be a Canada, New Zealand or an Australia rather than a broken 3rd world country.
Possibly. I tend to think Buenos Aires dwarfing everything else in the country is probably the basic problem Argentina has to solve. Without that, being similar to Australia or New Zealand doesn’t seem that unlikely
Living in Argentina now, and have having lived all over South America and Mexico, I would hardly say that Argentina is a "broken third world country". Getting European influences out of the America's is a good thing for us and always has been imo. I may be biased cuz I'm an American myself, but with out heavy oversight. The capital-rich, resource poor Europeans when en masse tend to be vampires on this side of the world rather than supporters or participators in building it up. Allies under cover, and trying to make the best deal possible, much like with Africa and Asia. In the southeastern US we have massive factories for German auto-works, but in exchange for allowing them to be there and sell to us, those states and counties call the shots, and let them manage, make some money, but not "take advantage ". If Latin America can adopt a similar model, I think European interests have a place in South American. If they think it's like the past, and that the ppl of the western hemisphere will let Europeans take and take, giving nothin but shitty wages in return, then they can just look eastward for their resource and laboral needs, and go to war again over it all with each like at the turn of 20th century
I read an analysis that said that Canada and Argentina were very similar in 1930. Similar culture, population, climate, arable land, resources, GDP per capita, etc. Since then Canada is WAY richer. The difference is government (present government of Canada notwithstanding)
I am going to attempt the dynamics here, hope I don't sound ignorant (I'm an American never been to South America, though I wish very much to experience it) So it looks like there is a big trade off between keeping your culture, religious beliefs etc. intact BUT you have awful economic/political systems (Peru without colonialism) in EXCHANGE for losing some of your culture/beliefs to imperialism/colonialism BUT you get a much more efficient and free economic system and political structure for society thus resulting in a more prosperous economy. Countries could have it both ways if they combined the two but that is a very difficult economic/cultural balance.
Peters analysis sounds very intelligent until he lands on a topic you know something about, then you see that everything he says is actually kinda wrong.
@@Jay-vt1mw Sensible people talk with probabilities and caveats. Zeihan has come up with such ridiculous claims as shutting down oceanic trade would kill 500 million Chinese (even though they can import food from Russia) and a Russia-NATO war would see casualties 1000:1 (even though Russia is beating NATO armed Ukraine decisively). So much of what he says is blatant propaganda.
Brazilian here: my family is from the south. Just NO fucking way, they would leave Brazil and join Argentina. We do not hate each other but we do not love them either. Second, there is a language barrier (omg I can't believe it, he is supposed to know at least a bit of history and geography but we speak Portuguese, Argentinians speak Spanish or a variant). We can communicate (I visited Argentina last year and I somehow managed to communicate but it is hard).
@@Sonicderessaca we don't have provinces. We have cities and states, which, by the way, can't separate (it is in our constitution). About Spanish, I wanted to learn Spanish after visiting there but Spanish and Portuguese are so close and I am a bit lazy... so, I rather learn another completely different language than Spanish that I can make do.
And let's not forget that our constitution has a non-changeable clause stating that the nation cannot be broken down into parts. You need a whole new constitution, and for that probably a war.
@@USandGlobal because for the very same reason , if you mention Indian Provinces , they will be mightily upset. They will rectify saying States. And Provinces sound provincial , provincial. As of a lesser entity. He is supposed to know as a geopolitical analyst. Big faux pas
As an Argentinian I think Peter is underestimating British presence in the southern seas, their militar base in the Fauklands is huge and far more advance than anythink we can dream of, our military is not even operational...
@@hughjass1044 even still, it will be easier for the uk to become able to project power than it will for argentina to build up enough military force to reach the falklands.
Why do Americans (even smart ones) think Falkland Islands is an Imperialist issue? The islands have never been part of Argentina and everyone there wants to remain British. It's as clear cut as any territorial dispute gets.
It’s a messy history but the French gave it to the Spanish, however the Brits already had people on one of the Islands and which country was there first I forgot
what did you expect from someone who sees the world with mentality all about American (the U.S.) interests , and doesn't even bother having a visit to countries he makes comments about, and self-claiming he's an expert analyst and strategist on geopolitics? LOL
I completely agree! His opinion made me think about the other opnions he has made about countries he doesn't know very close, like turkey and so on. I'm brazilian and as a former military officer I do know he is completely wrong about the merger possibilty.
Yes, he does come up with some crackpot ideas at times. He really doesn’t know what he doesn’t know, and it means taking much of what he says with a grain of salt. Reminds me of a McKinsey consultant - spins a good narrative with weak analysis behind it.
@@TheMarituba the merger is only one speculative scenario he mentions. the other is "buffer states" ruclips.net/video/ilA1KpA3kog/видео.htmlsi=oIkYxP9VpytuiPpr&t=175. Regardless, these scenarios depend first on cohesion among brazilians on only then on what argentina may or may not do about it.
As an Argentinian, with 40 years I can tell you this is the first time I have hope for the future. The very first time, and we will fight for this future.
Argentina lately is even giving ME hope and i'm brazilian! I can't imagine how hopeful you guys are in there in getting some changes after all these years suffering. Good luck bro!
Just remember the US is rooting for you guys. Hopefully Argentina has a great economic boom and there is a surge of jobs and prosperity. As an American I hope you get to enjoy the same freedoms I do.
As a brazillian I am cheering for Argentina success and very hopeful about our neighbor´s future. If Argentina escapes out of Peronist trap, it can help all South America in that sense. Good luck to you!
Not everything can be explained with demographics and geography. Sometimes you have to accept you might be dealing with a political culture comparable to Homer Simpson
Thanks. Now we know that what the Brandon regime is doing is called. Peronism. I was thinking it was straight up fascist but then add in the worst parts of socialism, now makes sense. Didn’t realize it had a name. Thanks!
@@letsRegulateSociopaths I don’t think you even have to consume a news source. Just understand history, especially “unapproved” history, and current patterns of behavior.
Having been to the Falklands for six months, I can definitely say the inhabitants definitely want to remain British. It is not colonialism. Brasilia is in the southern half of Brazil, not the north. Brazilians speak portugese, the Argentinians speak spanish, so they may not want to join together. Argentina famously is the only country to go from developed to developing, where as under Trump the US did experience economic growth. Zeihan also did not mention that massive lithium deposits that are part of the 'lithium triangle'. Now that he has covered something I have have a slight bit of knowledge about, I can see plenty of mistakes. I assume the rest of his videos are the same.
Trump had growth? Only in the most minimal sense. Nowhere near that of Obama or Biden and with trillions in added debt, even though Obama had handed him an economy that was reducing the deficit.
His opinion is valued from extensive research. The agencies and corporations who pay for his analysis most certainly get other opinions and try to reach a consensus on what actions to take. It's not like he makes pronouncements from the mount and everyone obeys. He's sharp enough to make very interesting videos and capitilize on them. What he does very well is make one think about things in a new way. A far cry from a lot of the schlock we see on various platforms.
Economies are like massive cargo ships; pretty hard to turn around. Saying that the US still had economic growth under Trump is mistaking the momentum it still had for arguing that multiple Trump-like presidents couldn't get the US onto a similar path as Argentina... Which is partly true (because of the US dollar's power) but also a bit naive (for multiple administrations definitely lead to exponential distortions).
About 6 years ago, this guy gave a speech to American farmers (its available on RUclips) where he said Brazils agriculture business would be done in 5 years "The last years of competing with Brazil for American farmers he said". Well, how did that turn out
Agreed. Peter just says things that sound plausible, but as soon as you check his facts they melt under even mild scrutiny. He is a kind of geopolitical snake oil salesman just making up vaguely reasonable sounding facts to fit the narrative. Peter's experience is shallow. Out of college he worked for Stratfor and then struck out on his own after discovering that Americans pay big bucks to hear how fantastic their future is going to be once they overcome their current setbacks. In other words there is nothing there.
Yes, but let’s be honest about who does Farmer’s were, we were great association that paid peter to tickle their ears. These people not just farmers for the Chamber of Commerce in these government types all want to hear the same thing as you all the babies in a capitalist. It is going to be plenty of cheap labor in the future even with the Demographic collapse in the birth rate. And of the leftist social culture, that they so love and consider their baby is one of the biggest causes for the destruction of western civilization, and the ecology of nature and nature is, God will not allow it to continue to exist, as can be ascertained through mathematic and demographic modeling. You don’t have to tell the party girl to put an aspirin in between her knees, when the babies run out, the economy will die when the economy, dies people will go back to old methods of making a living, which tend to produce more children, more children and turn will create more consumers And workers and the economy will be getting the boom, and the process will start all over again. Wealth and New Wine take away the heart read Xenofon Cyropedia, and take a close look at his Persians, a couple of generations from Cyrus now look at your found in fathers and GenZ. See any similarities? How about the baby boomers? Getting a little too close for comfort? Don’t worry for nominal fee Peter Zeihan can take all your ears .
I expect Zeihan to take a dig at Trump anytime a country has a nationalist/populist leader. Zeihan, like all anti-Trumpers projects the Biden regime's actual fascism onto Trump.
Trump certainly has flaws but he is very far from being a socialist or a fascist. He could have brought but aggravating allies, tariff/protectionism or taking a less interventionist approach but nope Peter drinking the MSM Kool-Aid. Sad really
As a Brazilian, you clearly don’t understand the cultural differences between Brazil and Argentina. I could roughly see a separation between “north Brazil” and “south Brazil”. If Argentina ever thinks of “expanding towards Brazil” you will surly see a Brazil the world has never seen. But hopefully the only a rivalry we will continue to have with our “hermanos” is on the soccer field.
Even if PZ has gonne too far off, IMO he is right in one thing: Mercosul can be a better and more reliable alternative than the BRICS. We better go along with Argentina du to their own economical potential.
A. 45 million people. B. 200 million people. B razil wins. Personally I think everyone else in South America is probably wondering what Chile is going to do. With their Chinese puppet?
@@VolneyFaustini wtf does one thing has to do with the other? Mercosur and Brics have completely different goals. One is a trade block, the other a development bank basically.
@@farnarkleboythey were the victims of self-centered arrogant men who became dictators. I wonder what they would've been if Peron had not gotten into power
Yes, rich because of its mass of silver mines, that’s Patagonia(the land of Giants) became Argentina, which you will notice the word silver, and its name.
Argentina is lunacy, has been for decades, and Brazil is the regional power, has been for decades… Zeihan thinking things will switch in 10 years is lunacy
Indeed, or that Brazil '"isn't going to have the military or cultural power to fight back" against secessionist movements. The opposite seems more likely... with the danger being overreaction rather than simple impotence.
As we say it here, I would put my beards in water. I haven't found arguments to rebuke him on the Argetinian potential being far better off than Brasil. I have already pur my argument on the Cerrado up - so I excuse me not to repeat it here.
I know very little about your country and you are probably right, so take this with a grain of salt. 20 years ago if you describe Trump ism to me and the coalition, it is clearly creating. I would’ve laughed at you and told you that was insane but things don’t exist in a vacuum and just because we don’t understand how things really end as opposed to how we think they will end doesn’t mean we have the kind of foresight we think we do. We call these things black swans for a reason. It was a Blacks one for me other people may have predicted it I don’t know.
Just looking at the current military response to the floods in south Brazil is enough to conclude this country is completely dysfunctional and has a complete joke of a military, and it's only getting worse
I love your books Peter, but you're absolutely and completely ignorant on everything Argentina related. Which makes me question anything else you say about any other country.
Being from Argentina, the only thing I would change about what he said is that Peron and Trump are essentially similar. Although both populist, Peron was socialist, his own brand of it. Yes, he was a fascist, but that's a type of socialism. And Peron admitted to be a socialist. Trump, he is a capitalist too enloved with himself. The day Trump becomes a socialist it will be the day I'll agree with Peter.
IDK, some of his followers are socialistic. They don't claim the title, but when they hear about democrat policies for student loan forgiveness, they ask if their loans will be forgiven too or if they can get free college too. They want government to provide services, but they also want the ability to force people they don't like off those services. Basically, they're selfish, probably too selfish to be actual socialists.
Trump is neither a capitalist nor a socialist. He has no coherent ideology and is motivated only by self-aggrandizement and grievance. He’s an actor, a role player. This is what fascism looks like, why there are so many variations depending on local conditions, and how it harnesses populist movements.
Brazil is massive and is 4300km long and 8 million square miles. He is saying parts of Brazil and Argentina will have decisions to make as the economy of Brazil collapses through demographic decline. It takes 30 to 60 years to rebuild a demographic cohort.
@@Art-is-craft No, He meant like Canada's Alberta situation - in that the few net paying states would likely secede or fight for a new federal arrangement.
@@diogomm710 They will only split if the rest of the country faces massive decline. The provinces in Canada will only become US states when the world goes crazy.
Easy now Peter..... I understand the British military isn't what it was , but we defended the Falklands on our own and continue to do so , we are embarrassingly dependent on the yanks but the Falklands is our baby , saying that I love and respect argentina and hope they turn the corner for the sake of thier people! Mucho respeto!
Why though? You dont try to dominate the world like US, so you dont need an island far away from your country. And you have given up your old empire. You had given up major countries like India, so why hold on to this sort of unimportant island?
@lookintoit4537 first reason, the inhabitants are mainly British as they voted for, 2nd reason there's oil there . We are no empire anymore not even a shadow of what we once was and to be honest I'm glad , we shouldn't rule over other countries, as close as it is to Argentina the people voted to be British, hence British goverment has a duty of care , Gibraltar is different again as it provides strategic defense of our shipping , the way I see it , if you view the world as east v west they are both as bad as each other both hypocritical, you can pick a side but there's good and bad about both. Russai cares little for the people of ukraine but so does Isreal against Palestine, bloodshed over territory and resources, there is no GOOD side anymore , I would rather see people as people rather than where you were born , if you value life you too should be valued
I’ve generally enjoyed Peter’s analyses over the last few months, but I’m becoming increasingly aware that he makes lazy assumptions and is just plain wrong in several areas that I actually know about. This leads me to question assertions he’s made about areas I don’t know about. This is very disappointing. It is also increasingly clear that petty personal dislikes strongly colour his analysis. He may well be right about a lot of issues, but the amount of stuff I now know he gets wrong leads me to wonder what’s true and what is simply opinionated blather.
I think Peter's International Geopolitical Analysis is broadly accurate, but I also think his domestic US politics is shit. It's an annoying dichotomy.
Dear Peter, Brasília is not up there in the rain forest. It is located in the central-west region of Brazil with a tropical savanna climate. And as such, it contains an extensive cover of grasses with scattered trees…😊
The statement was made as if he was speaking in the person of those in the southern states that wanted to break away. I’m sure that this is what he meant by this. If you live in Brazil or anywhere else saved for Colorado then by default, you know more about the local geography than Peter does. He is a generalist, suspended belief and enjoy. a water carrier for the state department that if he showed up on the savanna with all that water, he’s carrying it would turn into a rainforest.
I feel your concern at Zeihan's casual ignorance and bombastic self confidence. If you haven't seen the "Australia" video yet, a few days after this one, then you are in for a shock. Watch it then read the comments from Australians. He mentions "sub-prime in Australia"😂😂😂😂😂😅😂😅 We could not stop laughing. The informed comments by Australians make it clear Zeihan is a US-centric noob that fails at anything south of the equator, likely Brazil too he has grossly wrong, I'll be watching for that video👁👁
@@seaneustace9838 This fact undoes his entire argument. I'm a brazilian who took him very seriously until now. But that was such a monumental slip up I can confidentally say he's pretty much full of crap.
@@Godfrey544 I agree with you Godfrey. I always thought he knew what he was on about and then I watched the Ireland one (where I am from). Couldn't believe how basic, general, and inaccurate it was. And I have been to Brazil many times. It doesn't seem like a country that will separate into different countries if international capital gets a bit tight. Quite the opposite, any perosn I met in Brazil is a committed Brazilian and the nationalism that they practise is the best form of it as expressed through sports, music, dancing, music, food, etc. Peter is speaking bollocks here.
@@MegaMd76 Thank you. I've been to Ireland as well for a month in Roscrea, one of the best moments of my life. Indeed Its easy for us to fall into Peter Zeihan's talk when its about issues we don't know. So its a good thing that he revealed to us his game by overreaching. Its a common thing with successful conmen. Pretty soon Zehein will just have American fans who love how he's spinning American decline. "No its not that the USA is a declining power, its a willing withdrawal and the enitre world will collapse without us."
As a Brit I can categorically say the minute Argentina goes anywhere near the Falklands our Navy will be ready. The Falklands war was an extremely popular political choice in the UK, no politician in their right mind would ignore that. We also have a very capable Navy independent of the US and act without them all the time. For example, we just sent a warship to Guyana to project power, something Peter said the British would not do and now in this video is apparently not capable of.
Peter is interesting to listen to, but he’s typically American and thinks the entire world revolves around the Yanks. The current “After America” series is pointless too as America will not become isolationist. It completely depends on its hegemony to survive, something it simply can not afford to lose. Britain, on the other hand, will slowly shift towards CANZUK which will enable the Brits to act far more independently of the US.
As an American who lived in the u.k. for a couple years as a politics student..I kind of thought of the UK as our 52nd state, after Canada. 🍻 Im kidding a little. A little tiny bit.
Peter is sooooo wrong about Brazilian political system: the federal government is IMMENSELY powerful since most of tax payers money goes through it. Out of the 27 states in Brazil, half of them are massively dependent on the federal government for their budgets (some have as much as 84% of their budgets paid by federal taxes redistribution) while the remaining either break even or foot the bill (about a 1/4 of states in each group) There are only 6 states in Brazil that have a surplus with the capital Brasilia: Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais and Parana. Sao Paulo (1/3 of the country’s GDP and 22% of population) has the worst deal: of each dollar collected in federal taxes in the state, 92 cents never come back, with only 8% being returned in federal investments. Ironically (or maybe by design, with minimum and maximum caps for representatives favoring smaller states) these richer states are underrepresented in both houses of congress. So even the states with larger economies and populations don’t have the necessary political power and have to stay in line with the federal government if they want any of that sweet, sweet tax payers money back… The policial system in Brazil is so centralized that almost nothing can be done on the municipal level without the help of the state government, which in turn, more often than not, has to beg the president and his ministers for cash.
The southern states are in terminal population decline and totally dependent on internal migration to keep their economies going. The demographics of places like Santa Catarina are comparable to European countries.
But, yes, it's a bad take to say Brazil has a decentralized system, specially compared to the US. The whole political structure is immensely centralized.
@@kennethkilpatrick3758 I was referring to his comment about the states having a lot autonomy and even more power than the federal government, which is patently wrong. Early this year a state legislature passed a law banning gender theory for grade students and the federal Supreme Court stroke it down unceremoniously. A city representative in Sao Paulo capital was impeached by his peers because of code of conduct violation (he took part in a church depredation) and one of the Supreme Court judges overruled the decision and reinstate his mandate. Even public safety that should be left for the states still gets a lot of meddling from judges that live thousands of miles away from the problem: the police was prohibited to chase criminals into favelas in Rio, a sentenced drug lord had his possessions (including mansion, yacht and helicopter) turned back to him, and many other cases where states go hard on crime only for the federal courts to give it a pass.
@@kennethkilpatrick3758 Brazil will never breakaway, at least not in our life times. The population is too passive, unarmed and demoralized by this point. There was some hope with Operation Car Wash and the population tried to change course peacefully but the establishment struck back with a vengeance… The last time a Brazilian state took to arms and rebelled against federal power was 91 years ago and it was squashed by the army, giving birth to a long lasting anti-gun legislation in the country. The productive sector in Brazil is being smothered by the unproductives, which seem to be the majority now, with the brain drain and low fertility rates of the most developed parts of the country. Anyone who has the knowledge to see the writing on the wall and a passport/Visa will just move to a better country. That’s what I did more than a decade ago.
About Brazil, from someone with family members in South and NorthEast, living in the economic capital of the country (São Paulo) while having family and friends in other areas of the country working in the agrobusiness: 1. Despite all our shortcomings, we build our wealth with our resources and we have our own tech developed by some very high level agriculture research centers - the best being EMBRAPA. 2. Brazil is *way* more centralized than US, Canada or any other democratic reference you got - it was less so 100 years ago. After the centralist industrialist rule of Vargas and the Military Governments, real federalism is a mere distant dream. The southermost state, Rio Grande do Sul, is broken by it's own demerits, not because his economic energy is drained to the norther states. By economic reasons alone, São Paulo is the state giving more in taxes to the Union than receiving, but it's too big and diverse state to try anything (besides being a very unpractical proposition, to say the least...). A secession of Southern States from Brazil to be, then, linked to Argentina for other reasons than economic, like cultural, is as absurd as Poland uniting with Russian for having some common cultural features. The best case cenario of voluntary union is under a common market, like Mercosul. Other than that, more of the historical normal: war, with the Brazilian South leading the way against the neighbours - Argentina, Uruguay or Paraguay - that's very unlikely, but more likely than a voluntary union as Zeihan sugests. 3. In the case of collapse of international trade, it happened before (being 1929 the most recent example), and the consequences were a regime change and *even stronger centralization* - besides industrialization boost to substitute imports. The only revolt was in São Paulo (South East, not South) in 1932, for constitutional liberal regime against autoritarianism, not for regional independence. 4. About the relationship between the neighbours and Argentina: Chile has a tradition of fierce competition and independece, would never, ever, be under anything controled by Buenos Aires - best case cenario, an equal partner. Uruguay: it's a buffer state between Brazil and Argentina, and will continue to be. As their population collapses - the worst case in South America - it could be the case for an increased presence of Brazilians, but that's it. Paraguay: up until it's infrastructure of railroads and energy was integrated with Brazil's, it was more under the influence of Argentina, today it's Brazil the main power there - and nothing seems to change that in this century. Bolivia: have stronger ties with Brazil because many Brazilian farmers have crossed the border and invested in the very productive agrobusiness, Brazilian style, there - the Argentinians didn't anything in the same magnitude. The other countries of South America could be partners of Argentina, but never be in it's "sphere of influence" or something aproximate to that. The disputes for the control of the Plata Basin are over, war between Brazil and Argetina is long a issue only for historians - like war between Denmark and Sweden. It's more probable to Brazil fight side by side with Argentina against the British (take something under the British control in the Caribbean while the Argentinians grab Falklands/Malvinas) than to fight Argentina (suicidal from Argentinian point of view, irrational from the Brazilian perspective).
It’s conveniently forgotten that in 2010 Peter predicted the collapse of China ‘within the next ten years’. That was thirteen years ago. I wouldn’t put too much thought into what this modern-day Nostradamus has got to say.
if you actually knew what is going on in China today in terms of their economy breaking down massively (watch China Update), you may have a different opinion of that...
While I think Peter's Trump comments are asinine, I will defend his China predictions. China is hurting more and more currently, and the ongoing forecasts are no better.
@@Bayard1503 He's passed over 330 reforms already, which are valid right now. And he has another 700 laws on the congress pipeline. The the main success is to cultivate a massive amount of liberals in Argentina, classic liberals not "usa liberals" he's changed culture already and during his 4 years (or 8) of presidency will entrench a new way of thinking for Latam, and its already affecting the continent's countries. Latam is not Europe or US because in the 20's Socialist thought penetrated the intelectual class deeply, and the only response was coup after coup, which decimated the region's prosperity. Now cultural liberalism is taking hold.
@@celdur4635time will tell. Europe is quite a bit more prosperous with quite a bit more socialism. In fact, Zeihan refers specifically to the most socialist countries (France and the Scandinavians) as having the smartest natalist policies. You seem to be an ideologue which is coloring your thinking. It isn’t that spending is bad, it’s that not raising revenues to pay for it is bad. That’s why he’s talking about the inability to do math.
Zeihan’s entire premise that the US will become more isolationist is wrong though. The US relies on its hegemony, without it the US will decline rapidly and lose most of their global influence. It will literally never happen, which is why they are doing everything to stop trump from returning.
The Falkland Islands offer a good anchorage and airfield sat astride the sea routes to Cape Horn and so can threaten marine traffic between Atlantic and Pacific. The USA would much rather that facility remain in the hands of a friendly, reliable UK than an unpredictable Argentina.
I was going to say, Oh you mean those busy Cape Horn sea routes? Nobody goes around Cape Horn anymore except sailors trying to prove a point. However as climate degradation continues to mess with the Panama Canal there might be a small uptick in traffic, until a new canal is poked through southern Mexico.
@@geneappeal And in a time of crisis the USA will close both of those leaving just the two cape routes open. With the cooperation of allies like Brazil the Atlantic becomes a NATO lake
As a Brazilian, Peter is high on something regarding "Buffer States."... CRAZY TALK. More relevant would be to talk about the Communist alliances in South/Central America and the potential conflicts arising from there, which is already a factor now; Guyanas. Those will likely grow as the USA retracts more and more.
Re: The Falkland Islands - you said "imperialism vs anti-imperialism". To clarify; Argentina wants to colonise the Falkland Islands against the wishes of the indigenous inhabitants. Britain opposes this Argentinian imperialism, and is perfectly capable of doing without "America's help", thank you very much! God save the King! 🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰
@@walesruels they aren't free. You know how can you tell they aren't free? tell Falklanders to briefly pretend they are switching bands to Argies and see how UK's posture changes towards them. It's all about interests. It suits the UK that the islanders 'are free people able to exercise their free will as a territory'. The same thing that Barcelona tried before and was severely scolded by Europe as 'it is illegal for a territory under an Estate to declare itself free'. (and it goes and goes and goes like a rabbit hole). Nobody cares about Falkland. If my birth country had cared, for real, they would tried to give the islanders Argie's passports instead of trying to kick them out of the island.
@@JimNZMaybe spend 5 minutes learning about the subject you’re commenting on. The Falklands were uninhabited until the Europeans settled there (the first people to actually walk on the islands were British, btw), and though the Spanish, French, and British founded earlier settlements, they all got abandoned, and it’s the second British settlement founded in 1833 that is the current population of the islands. The current people there that had settled on an abandoned, uninhabited group of islands are British on a group of islands arguably first discovered by the British and definitely the first humans to walk on the islands were British. So Argentina would be a foreign power invading (aka colonizing if they were successful) what is a British territory that is natively British first explored by the British who were the first humans to ever be there.
He is a non anglo american. They have some weird hang-up about Britiain, same is true of non Anglo Aussies, Canadians, and Kiwis. Always trying to diminish or breaknthe ties that bind so they feel less insecure. Some how a famously capable navy, 3rd in the world, which is currently building more ships, wont be able to defend the same islands it defended 40 years ago against the dame country, which currently barely has a military.
Wow, I completely missed the times where Trump used the power of his office to go after anyone who disagreed with him. Silly me, I thought it was Biden (nee Obama) this whole time.
ummm, ever heard of Michael Cohen who was literally put in jail by the Justice Department at the orders of trump for writing a book? I thought you people were all about the 1st Amendment? Not for Him?
Disagree on the Falklands point there. The British didn't have great power projection in the south when the Falklands War happened but it didn't stop them from sending a few warships down there and retaking the island without US approval or help. The Royal Navy may not be the dominant force it once was when the British Empire was a thing but British stubbornness & pride is as strong as ever. If it is attacked the British will respond regardless of the cost just the same as anyone else would.
As a Brazilian, I think Peter looks at my country with some naive understanding. Brazil is a Federation and works as a Federal Government indeed. The states have limited power compared to the Federal government, and many depend on the central government (for instance, many states depend on receiving financial remittances to function normally). So although I agree that Argentina has a bright future, it is debatable to which degree Brazil is doomed.
Brazil is very centralized bro, and also dont underestimate brazilian nationalism, as someone who lives in the state of Paraná a southern state, i would rather eat shit and live in misery than become part of Argentina.
@@peterflohr7827@peterflohr7827 First, nothing is free. You need to leave your work and move from the town to the mountains. In my case, I need to move from the tropics to a more pleasant and less dangerous environment. ; Cheers ;)
@@indysasaZeihan didn't leave his work. He's in business as a consultant (and youtuber). He moves around were he's needed and does his hiking. I admit, walking shoes aren't free...
Said the the Brits couldn’t do anything without the US during the first Falklands conflict, they managed just fine, I’ve heard conflicting reports from actual military analysts on upcoming growth of UK military and economic power, I think you are blind in an UK upcoming political and military project that’s going to change the geopolitical landscape across the world, even for the US.
How are so many commenters here getting his point about the Falklands wrong? He's not saying that Argentina will miraculously have a better navy than Britain, he's saying that Britain may eventually cease to have the interest or luxury of maintaining a naval presence that far away for that little benefit, not when they'll have more pressing concerns far closer to home. This is a matter of circumstances dramatically shifting over time, and that's a valid argument, because that's the story of human history.
That struck me too. When Peter was talking about silencing enemies of the state, the first thing that came to mind was you-know-who standing in Philadelphia on a stage decked out with sideways-hung flags and red backlight, speaking about the threat of ... MAGA and Trumpism.
Peter is like all leftist his arrogance is insufferable. He should stick to demographics when he talks American politics his biases cloud his ability to see
I had the exact same thought. Think over the last decade or so of cancel culture and it is Trump's fault? Peter doesn't understand the inner workings of culture. But that isn't surprising given he's basically in acedemia and boardrooms, not main street.
His take on Tru.pism struck me odd, as it was Trump that really kicked off reshoring of American Manufacturing before covid. Also pushed to bring on more energy. All the things the Peter said is needed to push America into another huge growth phase. Just an odd take.
You’re just saying that because the current administration stole the election in front of everyone, and then gaslighted everyone who complained and organized a false flag in the middle of their protest, and try to paint them as insurrectionists as opposed to the people who just stole the election right in front of everyone’s eyes! I’m sorry, but I think they already got away with it. The problem was King George got a white way with a lot until he didn’t. Tyrants find themselves hanging from Bridges by piano wire more often than it’s comfortable to think on. Power is sometimes too tempting for some people they often don’t realize that they are risking their lives. The problem for the elite in America is that they’ve had an attempted power grab during the pandemic attempted to start a war with Russia and another in the Middle East, and have failed miserably. Do you have veterans telling their children not to join the military and they’re afraid to implement the draft because they know that the whole population will resist them and this will publicly make America look bad, you have the bricks coalition, trying to undermine the petrodollar, safer, forcing a gold standard on the west, I don’t see the succeeding, but nonetheless, it shows that the whole world is spitting in the face of the United States in the west, and including its own citizens, so those who have captured the government know that their power is small They can use the bully pulpit, false flag flag attacks and the press to try to get people to do what they want but when it comes to actual force those prospects seem to be diminishing as the days go by. PC makes a big deal about the US Armed Forces and its navy, which is in fact impressive until you can’t get anyone to man it except foreigners who then try to take it for themselves. Pretorian and stuff.
A number of folks here are somewhat negative of Peter. Couple of thoughts. No, Peter does not have the depth of knowledge of those of you who live in the countries he speaks of. And your points may well be valid. However, he makes you think. He provides a framework to help folks understand - at least to some extent - the wider world around them. And he does it in a reasonably entertaining format. So, while far from perfect, I find his morning commentary entertaining and informative. If you don't like him, find some other commentator to watch.
As a Brazilian, i mostly disagree. First that Brazil doesn't have provinces, it has states, but the main thing I disagree is that "the states almost have more power than the federal government", that's not true, states are very powerless here in Brazil, way less powerful than in the US. There are some fringe movements for succession of the southern states but they have almost no traction and the main government wouldn't let it happen, but i can understand that Peter's point is that it would happen under extreme economic hardship, still i don't think the southern states could achieve succession.
We are fond of our Agro - but we do not know in reality the problems concerning our potential in the near future. The Cerrado needs water and fertilizer, then it needs transportation (by trucks in bad roads). Then there is the cost of waiting at the ports. I can only say that 'o brasileiro é um forte' - but we have to think ahead. And that is what PZ is pushing us to.
My understanding of what he was saying, was under different economic conditions, and a more expansionist Argentina, looking to grab territory away from Brazil, whether by proxy breakaway states or anexxation
You have to take PZ like what if history, you kind of have to suspend belief. I love these people on the Internet attacking him, I attack him all the time, and being wrong on a bunch of stuff. What do you think this guy has a DeLorean and just got back from the future? What he’s doing, which is quite interesting to me and fun guarantee he’s going to get most things wrong. I don’t really know that that’s his fault. Read the opening paragraphs from the Napoleon of Notting Hill, that’s the nature of his business. The smart people are looking for thought experiments not for a prophet.
Comical to hear him describe the US as a "non-confederated" political system. I mean I get that these things are a matter of perspective and of degree but compared to most of the rest of the world the US seems a heavily, ridiculously confederated system.
Disagree. The US could be a lot more confederated. Politics used to be local. In my lifetime I can remember it. The legacy media diminishing in influence is going to turn the tide on that for good. Other things that could help would be congress removing some of the war power the president has, and expanding the size of congress (it was supposed to expand with the size of the population). Washington wanted the constitution to limit the size of a congressional district to 31,000 iirc.
I think the United states is a borderline case but I would still say they are federal. The states doesn't have more power than the federal government. Maybe as much but not more
States in the U.S. have considerably more powers of govt than the Federal government. Most of the laws that actually impact Americans lives directly are state not Federal. But, you are right in one very important sense. The powers the Federal government does have, are the most important in the modern world thus giving the Federal government more influence over the direction of the country.@@zi326
The US is more centralized of a federation than Canada, nowadays anyway. When Canada formed as a federation over 150 years ago, it was the other way around.
@@yodorob Really? Do the canadian provinces have their own laws. What exactly is it that makes them not united. I understand why Quebec but whats for the rest
Dear Peter, I love to listen to your sometimes wild predictions, if only for mind stimulation. I am an American living in Brazil since 1998 (this time)...First Brasilia is not in a tropical area...second have to agree Southern Brasil not likely to leave Brasil...Brasil's military might have an opinion about that...😮..no Argentine Army will ever match Brasil's..but good try
About 6 years ago, this guy gave a speech to American farmers (its available on RUclips) where he said Brazils agriculture business would be done in 5 years "The last years of competing with Brazil for American farmers he said". Well, how did that turn out...
The so called separatists in southern Brazil don't amount to more than half a dozen loudmouths. Plus, much of the military manpower are conscripts and if thing really go bad, we can expect massive desertions. Politically, we are not far off the argentinians. We have our own fascist crop, which is also mixed with some weird strain of socialism.
@@finalcut302Can you provide more details about the speech? The ones I watched didn't say that. Deforestation using imported Russian fertilizer and now diesel to grow soy for China is the high inputs cost he was referring to. I'd like to see more industry in Brazil.
@@ericreed4535 The problem lies with the numbers and how things changed. Brazil is a large oil exporter now. Oil refineries are no rocket science, Russia and India just sells it cheap enough. Brazil just imports a quarter of its current diesel consumption anyway. About fertilizers and high inputs, again the numbers. How much higher? Is it higher? In tonnes of NPK, how much more? 20% more? 200% more? How much it increases the production costs? About the collapse of global trade, can we expect morroco to stop selling phosphate anytime? Russia and others will stop exporting potash? The whole assumption that without the US global trade will colapse is questionable. In resume, we have a polynomial equation here, Peter lists the variables but without the constants you can't asserts anything.
He somehow is wrong about everything he said about Brazil. We are a federation, not a confederation, the southern separatism moviment is a joke, they have very litltle to no support among the southern population, the capital (Brasilia) is literally in the middle of the country, not "way up north" as he said. Even if Argentina solves their problems ( which I hoe they do) it will take decades before they can reach Brazilian soft and hard power in South America and, as was in the 20th century, they usually agree or reach a settlement about geopolitical questions in the region. Its much more likely that our countries (ARG and BR) grow closer and prosperous rather that one take territories from the other.
Zeihan is a buffoon at times when he lets his imagination go wild and asserts things with no basis in reality. Now I see why some people call him a grifter.
Peter, to look at the military accomplishments and tradition of Great Britain over the last 200 years and to casually say that Argentina will be able to take the Falkland Islands in the 2030s and 2040s is insane.
This is true Peter, after all of the British Commonwealth only exists to keep relations going, so you can more easily implement those states back into the British empire, as is true with the French equivalent. Maybe we can get the Simpsons to do a revives British empire in the same way they did one with Lennon rising up in the Soviets coming back. That would be kind of cool maybe you can even have a queen come back from the dead Hit Charlie over the head and common nincompoop or something like that would be quite fun
England didn't have any trouble defeating Argentina without US last time And Falklands is considerably better defended now Argentinas armed forces, by contrast, have been allowed to rot since that defeat There's a squadron of eurofighters stationed on the Falklands too What is Zeihan even talking about?
They're already protesting the austerity measures in the streets. Meanwhile Milei is already overreaching as far as his mandate and wants to rule by mandate. If he makes it to 2025 without violence on the streets it will be a miracle.
There's a popular meme about certain types of new technology which are very high on the anticipation scale but equally low on the practicality scale.... We say "they're the technology of the future - and they always will be." I'm reminded of this every time someone talks about Argentina's potential and I think to myself, yes; they're the superpower of the future... and they always will be. They're like the hotshot rookie in sports who has all the skills but none of the discipline and drive necessary to convert them into success. Like much of Latin America, Argentina seems to be its own worst enemy. They've got so much going for them yet can't shake their addiction to whomever the latest and greatest political savior is who's going to rescue them from the last one. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, it's true, and at the end of Argentina's thousand miles is a fantastic, prosperous future but as a country, they can never seem to get past about the 50 mile mark.
Oh my goodness, you just explain to me what happened to my flying car and all those Nazi secret weapons after World War II. This is exactly how I felt when Adam Douglas explain to me where all those missing socks had gone!🤣
A senior Royal Navy officer recently insisted that the Royal Navy has enough warships to protect HMS Queen Elizabeth. Rear Admiral Burton, former Commander UK maritime forces, said: “We have enough frigates and destroyers to protect that task group. We will use coalition frigates and destroyers, but we have enough to deliver a sovereign task group.”
turn it around into dollars that he will steal and bring to another country (which is probably why dollarization-- no one wants Argentine Peso so stealing doesn't get you much...)
Hope the best for them for real, it would be great to have another economic power in the atmosphere not that it we can feet with the US I’m not holding my breath however, even if the guy has actual good intentions, and I don’t know it’s hard he seems at the end of the line for the money train, which is about to leave the station With the boomers retiring. Maybe if he brings in some biotech marketers and tries to sell the billionaires on life extension stuff you could use some of the scenes out of the boys from Brazil or that 1980s bad version of Kermit West reanimator by Lovecraft and splice it together to sell these rituals guys that are afraid of going to hell on eternal life within the body, it’s a pipe dream and it will never happen with these areas literally pay the freezer body parts so when they find a cure for death, they can bring them back. Meanwhile, the warehouse clubs are kicking their heads around like soccer balls. If they’re rich, I’ve never been anything it’s out of touch.
When Peter says that Britain dosnt have the power projection to intervein in the south atlantic id like to remind everyone thats exactly what the Americans, and others said in 1982 aswell.
Lol, Its crazy that you did this segment without mentioning the biggest wildcard ever. Javier Milei is the craziest most libertarian leader the world has probably ever known. Whether he succeeds or fails will probably affect policy not just in Argentina but the rest of Latin America.
Thank you for bring this up. I was about to ask Peter if he's been paying attention to current events in Argentina; the glaring absence of Milei (and what he represents) in his analysis suggests that he isn't.
@@StarFishPrimo they that's kind of my read too. It's such a wild card and he won by such a landslide that how his policies work / don't work will be hugely influence. That's even assuming he can get through all the policies through, which being blocked by his political opponents could be just as influential going forward.
First of all, I always liked objective thoughts, Argentina despite the deviation of the currency, is the 2nd Country with the best quality of life of South America; and even though our terrible Governments wanted to completely obliterate the Middle Class here, it still exists. We have everything to sustain ourselves though time and (objectively) I have always wondered: Does Brazil still maintains that it Middle Class it was formed some decades ago the Public Data says? 500 Dollars? (Because earning more than in that in Brazil you are not Middle Class, you are Upper) Here in Argentina is 1300 Dollars historically, now it's 444 Dollars (calculated) because of the current crisis we all know. (All I say is on Data)
I won't dramatize on all the problems and corruption that all countries have, but more or less Peter is right lots of advantages of "even" a Country like this.
@@theuselessdrunk when I read PZ's book and heard him saying that Argentina would be better off that Brazil I got really mad. Then going into rational mode, I got deep into his arguments. Argentina has one of the best agricultural and cattle farming lands in the World - with water and a more protected climate than Brasil. We do have the #1 soy crop in the world, but man, what a struggle to get those grains to the ports. And the land is thin, needs fertilezer and water - and a climate change will do a lot of damage. This is just one of the issues, but there is more, and I think he will get back to it.
@@VolneyFaustini The problem of such statements lies on the numbers. Brazil's land is not thin by the way and Argentina has worse droughts than Brazil. Transportation costs gets smaller every year. Argentina's main advantages comes from plain terrain and temperatures that favors organic matter and nitrogen retantion. This way it requires less fertilizers. There was a problem with iron and alluminum oxides in brazilian soils but once you properly saturate the soil with phosphate and dolomite, and keep cover crops, the maintainence consumption is much lower. That said the numbers speaks but than selves, Brazil's soy, maize and meat production are multiples times higher now. Zeihan's predictions keeps failing because he ignores the facts, the hard numbers. If you don't fit numbers in your teory the world won't fit in your teories. I'm still waiting for China and global trade collapse btw.
If anything in a post American world (But is the USA really ready to give up that power? I kinda doubt it.) I see the UK being able to hold on to the Falklands more easily. In the event of another conflict the UK would be able to take the gloves off and use its submarines. I'm pretty sure that some unrestricted submarine warfare against Argentina would bring any conflict to an end rapidly (and even force Argentina to leave the Falklands in the unlikely scenario that they took them again) without aircraft carriers or American support. Since the end of WW2 the secondary nations like the UK haven't faught an "anything goes" war where the enemies commerce, infrastructure and population are all legitimate targets and hence most people think that such a war would be impossible today. I believe that especially if the US is no longer a security guarantor that historically brutal wars will return with a vengeance. The dream of American isolationism has always been an unrealistic dream and probably an domestic political tool which Zeihan seems to have fallen for to a degree. I agree that the USA is currently in one of its navel gazing phases when it disengages somewhat, but sooner or later it will be forced to sober up and realise that it actually needs the rest of the world. The pendulum swung too far towards globalization, next it will swing too far in the opposite direction, ad infinitum. All the best.
@@farnarkleboy actually no, was interesting to see each state fighting when covid hit. Qld has the energy, nsw and vic the economy, wa has the resources. I think Australia will absolutley break apart into separate areas.
Southern Brazil separatism is not a serious argument. If Peter stopped at taking down taxation barriers to deal preferably with Argentine, he would have a point, but separatism is simply not real
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
I think Peter is underestimating Argentina's constant ability to do the wrong thing
😂😂😂
He often adds that. Maybe the New Year makes him more Rosey.
As Argentinian born i approve this assessment. Living in Europe i can tell you that Argentina will be better off (it made all the stupid decisions possble) buy the 2030’s than Europe if they don’t curve immigration of muslims
Peter is a CIA GOON. peddles propoganda and nothig else
Hahaha! Lol!
Hi, Argentine here (also Kiwi and english descendant): Nobody cares about Malvinas beyond the concept and pain it represents. Forever considered to be ours... and that's it.
Argentina has 0 military forces. 0 ambitions of doing anything military in the region.
The country is experimenting perhaps its biggest shift in history and it's too soon to see if will make it in one piece or not. The Peronism is super weak and if it continues like this, will become extinct at some point.
Argentina is very good a maths btw, just not as a nation but as individual politicians (unfortunately).
The country is now trying to get aligned with USA and the Western allies (after almost a century of being on the opposite side). We'll see what happens in this crazy world.
Interesting perspective!
Breaking off the expensive addiction of Peronism will be tough, but I wish Argentina the best in their detox.
The whole time, I was waiting to hear. If Argentina can shift politically. Into what that will look like.
Not about, what we already know.
@@billpetersen298 Argentina just made the first major step toward that shift. In the past 3 weeks the new govt has launched hundreds of changes that are now being debated in Congress... and there are hundreds more to come. All aiming for a less govt regulated country. It's a massive experiment and certainly has many countries paying attention to it: if a country like Argentina (devastated, bad with numbers etc) can pull that off... then everybody else can as well.
@@JimNZ Yes, that’s what i wanted to hear. With the election of Milei. How much power does he have, how much opposition? Is he just a different kind of crazy? His policy sounds good. But pulling off big change, wont be easy. There will be pushback, when cuts happen. Interesting times.
I find these opinionated pieces to camera interesting but it is necessary to take them with a very large pinch of salt. As others have already pointed out, this latest is riddled with inaccuracies and his biases show through. He runs the risk of being perceived as more of a propagandist than a neutral analyst.
That kinda depends on where YOU are coming from.
Big fan of Peter, i live in Rio Grande do Sul state of Brasil and we border Argentina, trust me we will not separate! Didnt happen in the past for sure will not happen now. We have the oldest population of Brasil
As a descendant of Peruvians, if Peru can turn themselves around, Argentina can too.
Peru, just like Argentina, has the tremendous capacity to squander its wealth and opportunities. The last few years were a perfect example. The ignorance of CIA agent Zeihan on so many subjects it's just amazing! 🙉🙈🙊
At least Peru is able to jail their corrupt politicians. Unfortunately, they continue to elect corrupt politicians. Since in-laws are Peruvians, it continues to roll downhill. And there is no stopping it.
History would suggest otherwise.
@JG-MV Unfortunately the story of most of South America.
It seems like Peru just didn’t stop turning though they can’t seem to keep things straight. Hopefully
When I lived in Argentina, I had many Argentines say to me (an American) that the worst thing they ever did was to expel the Brits in the 1800's. They said that if Argentina had stayed under Colonial rule, we would be a Canada, New Zealand or an Australia rather than a broken 3rd world country.
Possibly. I tend to think Buenos Aires dwarfing everything else in the country is probably the basic problem Argentina has to solve. Without that, being similar to Australia or New Zealand doesn’t seem that unlikely
Indians say the same
Living in Argentina now, and have having lived all over South America and Mexico, I would hardly say that Argentina is a "broken third world country".
Getting European influences out of the America's is a good thing for us and always has been imo. I may be biased cuz I'm an American myself, but with out heavy oversight.
The capital-rich, resource poor Europeans when en masse tend to be vampires on this side of the world rather than supporters or participators in building it up.
Allies under cover, and trying to make the best deal possible, much like with Africa and Asia.
In the southeastern US we have massive factories for German auto-works, but in exchange for allowing them to be there and sell to us, those states and counties call the shots, and let them manage, make some money, but not "take advantage ".
If Latin America can adopt a similar model, I think European interests have a place in South American.
If they think it's like the past, and that the ppl of the western hemisphere will let Europeans take and take, giving nothin but shitty wages in return, then they can just look eastward for their resource and laboral needs, and go to war again over it all with each like at the turn of 20th century
I read an analysis that said that Canada and Argentina were very similar in 1930. Similar culture, population, climate, arable land, resources, GDP per capita, etc. Since then Canada is WAY richer. The difference is government (present government of Canada notwithstanding)
I am going to attempt the dynamics here, hope I don't sound ignorant (I'm an American never been to South America, though I wish very much to experience it)
So it looks like there is a big trade off between keeping your culture, religious beliefs etc. intact BUT you have awful economic/political systems (Peru without colonialism) in EXCHANGE for losing some of your culture/beliefs to imperialism/colonialism BUT you get a much more efficient and free economic system and political structure for society thus resulting in a more prosperous economy. Countries could have it both ways if they combined the two but that is a very difficult economic/cultural balance.
Peters analysis sounds very intelligent until he lands on a topic you know something about, then you see that everything he says is actually kinda wrong.
Yes... he speaks very confidently about stuff he barely understands. And his track record of predictions is pretty dire.
Indeed
@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 He owns his wrong predictions though, literally any one who predicts anything is wrong most of the time.
Yeh, maybe, maybe not.
Sometimes, sometimes not.
Still very good source for leading issues.. gotta check him out even if you don't gotta agree.
@@Jay-vt1mw Sensible people talk with probabilities and caveats. Zeihan has come up with such ridiculous claims as shutting down oceanic trade would kill 500 million Chinese (even though they can import food from Russia) and a Russia-NATO war would see casualties 1000:1 (even though Russia is beating NATO armed Ukraine decisively). So much of what he says is blatant propaganda.
Brazilian here: my family is from the south. Just NO fucking way, they would leave Brazil and join Argentina. We do not hate each other but we do not love them either. Second, there is a language barrier (omg I can't believe it, he is supposed to know at least a bit of history and geography but we speak Portuguese, Argentinians speak Spanish or a variant). We can communicate (I visited Argentina last year and I somehow managed to communicate but it is hard).
Time to learn spanish then
LOL, he said Brazilian provinces!!!!!! PROVINCES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Brazilians are just anxious that they haven’t won a 6th World Cup yet while Argentina are the title holders!
@@Sonicderessaca we don't have provinces. We have cities and states, which, by the way, can't separate (it is in our constitution). About Spanish, I wanted to learn Spanish after visiting there but Spanish and Portuguese are so close and I am a bit lazy... so, I rather learn another completely different language than Spanish that I can make do.
And let's not forget that our constitution has a non-changeable clause stating that the nation cannot be broken down into parts. You need a whole new constitution, and for that probably a war.
The capital of Brazil is not in the north, is in the center…
Kinda of an embarrassing mistake. It’s nowhere near the rainforest. Did he mean Manaus?
@@WhatIsBacon No more embarrasing than "Brazilian provinces".
@@Sonicderessacahe uses states and provinces because they mean the same thing 😂 why are you guys so dumb?
@@USandGlobal because for the very same reason , if you mention Indian Provinces , they will be mightily upset. They will rectify saying States. And Provinces sound provincial , provincial. As of a lesser entity.
He is supposed to know as a geopolitical analyst. Big faux pas
@@Sonicderessaca Before 1889, Zeihan would have been right.
As an Argentinian I think Peter is underestimating British presence in the southern seas, their militar base in the Fauklands is huge and far more advance than anythink we can dream of, our military is not even operational...
I think he's talking about 20-30 years in the future.
@@hughjass1044 yeah I reckoned that too but I don't find reasons to anticipate the strengths relation could change much let alone turn around
You're overestimating UK's army ... not that they would need much to keep Argentina in check
@@hughjass1044 even still, it will be easier for the uk to become able to project power than it will for argentina to build up enough military force to reach the falklands.
You don't need a military, your neighbors speak almost the same language, have the same religion... You can be friends.
Why do Americans (even smart ones) think Falkland Islands is an Imperialist issue? The islands have never been part of Argentina and everyone there wants to remain British. It's as clear cut as any territorial dispute gets.
Plus theyre all English
Because it is imperialistic issue. Argentina wanted Falklands but as you wrote, islands have never been part of Argentina.
I don't know about the smart ones, but Zeihan is not one of them.
It’s a messy history but the French gave it to the Spanish, however the Brits already had people on one of the Islands and which country was there first I forgot
Because English speaking white countries are evil according to liberalism
Suggesting a Southern Brazil/Argentina merger is about the dumbest take on World politics Zeihan has ever had.
Yes
what did you expect from someone who sees the world with mentality all about American (the U.S.) interests , and doesn't even bother having a visit to countries he makes comments about, and self-claiming he's an expert analyst and strategist on geopolitics? LOL
I completely agree! His opinion made me think about the other opnions he has made about countries he doesn't know very close, like turkey and so on.
I'm brazilian and as a former military officer I do know he is completely wrong about the merger possibilty.
Yes, he does come up with some crackpot ideas at times. He really doesn’t know what he doesn’t know, and it means taking much of what he says with a grain of salt. Reminds me of a McKinsey consultant - spins a good narrative with weak analysis behind it.
@@TheMarituba the merger is only one speculative scenario he mentions. the other is "buffer states" ruclips.net/video/ilA1KpA3kog/видео.htmlsi=oIkYxP9VpytuiPpr&t=175. Regardless, these scenarios depend first on cohesion among brazilians on only then on what argentina may or may not do about it.
All of this would imply the argentinans actually learn good governance
"good governance"!!! A Very, very, very, OBSCENE word in the history!!!
Good governance, Charlie Brown!
As an Argentinian, with 40 years I can tell you this is the first time I have hope for the future. The very first time, and we will fight for this future.
You are not smart 40 year old
Because of Milei ?
Argentina lately is even giving ME hope and i'm brazilian! I can't imagine how hopeful you guys are in there in getting some changes after all these years suffering. Good luck bro!
Just remember the US is rooting for you guys. Hopefully Argentina has a great economic boom and there is a surge of jobs and prosperity. As an American I hope you get to enjoy the same freedoms I do.
As a brazillian I am cheering for Argentina success and very hopeful about our neighbor´s future. If Argentina escapes out of Peronist trap, it can help all South America in that sense. Good luck to you!
Not everything can be explained with demographics and geography. Sometimes you have to accept you might be dealing with a political culture comparable to Homer Simpson
"Peronism"
Brasilia is not 'way up north in the jungle.'
Bruh, everything you've said about why Argentina should prosper has been true for the last 100 years.
Now try a sane govnt.
When someone has no arguments, just make mimimi! Bruh! @@KLRJUNE
You entirely missed the part bout Peronism.
@@chriskola3822 says who?
@@chriskola3822 always, if someone acts like a dominant Teacher! So, YOU misst everything, whole Point wrong! 🤣🤣🤣
Arguing that Trumpism is socialist is going to piss off a lot of people, Peter. I imagine that was your goal, so congrats, mission accomplished.😏
TDS knows no bounds.
judging by the comments, he definitely triggered allot ‘em 😮
trumpism is a hate movement with fascist tendencies
Democrats are also socialist. Actually big time socialist. Basically we're in the slide to the bottom no matter what.
Interesting that people take exception to socialism part, rather than the fascism
I still believe Peter's channel is a marketing plot to promote Colorado tourism.
It’s working then, I’d never considered Colorado before seeing his trips around the state in videos.
@@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986 Peter could retire and become a guide onto those places.
When I lived in Brazil the gauchos I knew were open to independence, but none of them wanted to join with Argentina.
Right, exactly, Rio Grande do Sul wanted to be its own country, not join up with Uruguay nor certainly Argentina.
In other words, Zeihan is pulling shit out of his ass as usual.
Thanks. Now we know that what the Brandon regime is doing is called. Peronism. I was thinking it was straight up fascist but then add in the worst parts of socialism, now makes sense. Didn’t realize it had a name. Thanks!
💯
Best comment lol
perhaps question the motives of those news sources you so greedily and lustfully consume...
@@letsRegulateSociopaths I don’t think you even have to consume a news source. Just understand history, especially “unapproved” history, and current patterns of behavior.
Having been to the Falklands for six months, I can definitely say the inhabitants definitely want to remain British. It is not colonialism. Brasilia is in the southern half of Brazil, not the north. Brazilians speak portugese, the Argentinians speak spanish, so they may not want to join together. Argentina famously is the only country to go from developed to developing, where as under Trump the US did experience economic growth. Zeihan also did not mention that massive lithium deposits that are part of the 'lithium triangle'. Now that he has covered something I have have a slight bit of knowledge about, I can see plenty of mistakes. I assume the rest of his videos are the same.
He definitely has a political bias.
Trump had growth? Only in the most minimal sense. Nowhere near that of Obama or Biden and with trillions in added debt, even though Obama had handed him an economy that was reducing the deficit.
His opinion is valued from extensive research. The agencies and corporations who pay for his analysis most certainly get other opinions and try to reach a consensus on what actions to take. It's not like he makes pronouncements from the mount and everyone obeys. He's sharp enough to make very interesting videos and capitilize on them. What he does very well is make one think about things in a new way. A far cry from a lot of the schlock we see on various platforms.
Yes... he speaks very confidently about stuff he barely understands. And his track record of predictions is pretty dire.
Economies are like massive cargo ships; pretty hard to turn around.
Saying that the US still had economic growth under Trump is mistaking the momentum it still had for arguing that multiple Trump-like presidents couldn't get the US onto a similar path as Argentina...
Which is partly true (because of the US dollar's power) but also a bit naive (for multiple administrations definitely lead to exponential distortions).
Wow, a whole 6 minute presentation on Argentina without reference to newly elected Javier Milei
1) He’s talked about Milei in other videos. 2) This video was recorded prior to Milei’s election. Note the season in the video.
@@MarcosElMalo2 yes, i can see your right now, new year is still catching up with me my friend! ;-)
About 6 years ago, this guy gave a speech to American farmers (its available on RUclips) where he said Brazils agriculture business would be done in 5 years "The last years of competing with Brazil for American farmers he said". Well, how did that turn out
Yes, Peter is wrong about most everything.
Agreed. Peter just says things that sound plausible, but as soon as you check his facts they melt under even mild scrutiny. He is a kind of geopolitical snake oil salesman just making up vaguely reasonable sounding facts to fit the narrative.
Peter's experience is shallow. Out of college he worked for Stratfor and then struck out on his own after discovering that Americans pay big bucks to hear how fantastic their future is going to be once they overcome their current setbacks. In other words there is nothing there.
Yes, but let’s be honest about who does Farmer’s were, we were great association that paid peter to tickle their ears.
These people not just farmers for the Chamber of Commerce in these government types all want to hear the same thing as you all the babies in a capitalist. It is going to be plenty of cheap labor in the future even with the Demographic collapse in the birth rate. And of the leftist social culture, that they so love and consider their baby is one of the biggest causes for the destruction of western civilization, and the ecology of nature and nature is, God will not allow it to continue to exist, as can be ascertained through mathematic and demographic modeling. You don’t have to tell the party girl to put an aspirin in between her knees, when the babies run out, the economy will die when the economy, dies people will go back to old methods of making a living, which tend to produce more children, more children and turn will create more consumers And workers and the economy will be getting the boom, and the process will start all over again. Wealth and New Wine take away the heart read Xenofon Cyropedia, and take a close look at his Persians, a couple of generations from Cyrus now look at your found in fathers and GenZ. See any similarities? How about the baby boomers? Getting a little too close for comfort? Don’t worry for nominal fee Peter Zeihan can take all your ears .
While Brazilian agricultural exports keep growing. He got things really wrong with Brazil.
@@marcv2648 indeed. bought one of this oldest books. so many predictions were wrong.
Trumpism is socialist/fascistic? WOW! Someone has taken in the blue/green/purple haired definition of words as literal truth.
I expect Zeihan to take a dig at Trump anytime a country has a nationalist/populist leader.
Zeihan, like all anti-Trumpers projects the Biden regime's actual fascism onto Trump.
Trumpism is fascistic with a cult of personality layered on top.
Trump certainly has flaws but he is very far from being a socialist or a fascist. He could have brought but aggravating allies, tariff/protectionism or taking a less interventionist approach but nope Peter drinking the MSM Kool-Aid. Sad really
He had Jared Kushner stockpile PPE and sell it back to states it was meant to be given to. Your ilk has a special place in hell for that.
You’re just in denial, buddy.
As a Brazilian, you clearly don’t understand the cultural differences between Brazil and Argentina. I could roughly see a separation between “north Brazil” and “south Brazil”. If Argentina ever thinks of “expanding towards Brazil” you will surly see a Brazil the world has never seen. But hopefully the only a rivalry we will continue to have with our “hermanos” is on the soccer field.
Even if PZ has gonne too far off, IMO he is right in one thing: Mercosul can be a better and more reliable alternative than the BRICS. We better go along with Argentina du to their own economical potential.
I would think any brazilian state that breaks off would want to be independent and not be apart of Argentina
A. 45 million people.
B. 200 million people.
B razil wins.
Personally I think everyone else in South America is probably wondering what Chile is going to do. With their Chinese puppet?
@@VolneyFaustini wtf does one thing has to do with the other? Mercosur and Brics have completely different goals. One is a trade block, the other a development bank basically.
Facts
I'm surprised he didn't mention an expression that was common around 1900, "rich as an Argentine", due to their economic status
@@farnarkleboythey were the victims of self-centered arrogant men who became dictators. I wonder what they would've been if Peron had not gotten into power
Yes, rich because of its mass of silver mines, that’s Patagonia(the land of Giants) became Argentina, which you will notice the word silver, and its name.
Argentina is lunacy, has been for decades, and Brazil is the regional power, has been for decades… Zeihan thinking things will switch in 10 years is lunacy
The world is changing rapidly, I wouldn't sit on that mindset too much
Indeed, or that Brazil '"isn't going to have the military or cultural power to fight back" against secessionist movements. The opposite seems more likely... with the danger being overreaction rather than simple impotence.
As we say it here, I would put my beards in water. I haven't found arguments to rebuke him on the Argetinian potential being far better off than Brasil. I have already pur my argument on the Cerrado up - so I excuse me not to repeat it here.
I know very little about your country and you are probably right, so take this with a grain of salt. 20 years ago if you describe Trump ism to me and the coalition, it is clearly creating. I would’ve laughed at you and told you that was insane but things don’t exist in a vacuum and just because we don’t understand how things really end as opposed to how we think they will end doesn’t mean we have the kind of foresight we think we do. We call these things black swans for a reason. It was a Blacks one for me other people may have predicted it I don’t know.
Just looking at the current military response to the floods in south Brazil is enough to conclude this country is completely dysfunctional and has a complete joke of a military, and it's only getting worse
I love your books Peter, but you're absolutely and completely ignorant on everything Argentina related. Which makes me question anything else you say about any other country.
Being from Argentina, the only thing I would change about what he said is that Peron and Trump are essentially similar. Although both populist, Peron was socialist, his own brand of it. Yes, he was a fascist, but that's a type of socialism. And Peron admitted to be a socialist. Trump, he is a capitalist too enloved with himself. The day Trump becomes a socialist it will be the day I'll agree with Peter.
Great point! Trump might just be completely incapable of any genuine empathy with the poor people, thinking of them as ‘losers’.
the day trump becomes a socialist is the day he brings it up at a rally and people cheer.
IDK, some of his followers are socialistic. They don't claim the title, but when they hear about democrat policies for student loan forgiveness, they ask if their loans will be forgiven too or if they can get free college too. They want government to provide services, but they also want the ability to force people they don't like off those services. Basically, they're selfish, probably too selfish to be actual socialists.
@@letsRegulateSociopaths
And yet idiots cheer it every time Bernie Sanders brings it up at one of his rallies. #Ryan-Fkdemocratz
Trump is neither a capitalist nor a socialist. He has no coherent ideology and is motivated only by self-aggrandizement and grievance. He’s an actor, a role player. This is what fascism looks like, why there are so many variations depending on local conditions, and how it harnesses populist movements.
I don't see Brazil as less centralized than the US. The states in Brazil have got much less tools of self governance.
Brazil is massive and is 4300km long and 8 million square miles. He is saying parts of Brazil and Argentina will have decisions to make as the economy of Brazil collapses through demographic decline. It takes 30 to 60 years to rebuild a demographic cohort.
@@Art-is-craft No, He meant like Canada's Alberta situation - in that the few net paying states would likely secede or fight for a new federal arrangement.
@@diogomm710
They will only split if the rest of the country faces massive decline. The provinces in Canada will only become US states when the world goes crazy.
Easy now Peter..... I understand the British military isn't what it was , but we defended the Falklands on our own and continue to do so , we are embarrassingly dependent on the yanks but the Falklands is our baby , saying that I love and respect argentina and hope they turn the corner for the sake of thier people! Mucho respeto!
Any decent person should support the almost unanimous desire of the Falklands population to remain associated with the UK.
Why though? You dont try to dominate the world like US, so you dont need an island far away from your country. And you have given up your old empire. You had given up major countries like India, so why hold on to this sort of unimportant island?
@lookintoit4537 first reason, the inhabitants are mainly British as they voted for, 2nd reason there's oil there .
We are no empire anymore not even a shadow of what we once was and to be honest I'm glad , we shouldn't rule over other countries, as close as it is to Argentina the people voted to be British, hence British goverment has a duty of care , Gibraltar is different again as it provides strategic defense of our shipping , the way I see it , if you view the world as east v west they are both as bad as each other both hypocritical, you can pick a side but there's good and bad about both. Russai cares little for the people of ukraine but so does Isreal against Palestine, bloodshed over territory and resources, there is no GOOD side anymore , I would rather see people as people rather than where you were born , if you value life you too should be valued
As an American Gen Z, I don’t like the brits having any territory outside Europe. Monroe doctrine rahhhh
Yeah, that was a bad take on his part. Most analysts thought the UK would lose the Falklands war, too, until they won easily.
I’ve generally enjoyed Peter’s analyses over the last few months, but I’m becoming increasingly aware that he makes lazy assumptions and is just plain wrong in several areas that I actually know about. This leads me to question assertions he’s made about areas I don’t know about. This is very disappointing. It is also increasingly clear that petty personal dislikes strongly colour his analysis. He may well be right about a lot of issues, but the amount of stuff I now know he gets wrong leads me to wonder what’s true and what is simply opinionated blather.
Very well put!
Oh but he’s soooo confident 😂😂😂
What is he wrong about that some random dude (you) on the Interwebz clearly knows better. Yours was a lazy post.
I think Peter's International Geopolitical Analysis is broadly accurate, but I also think his domestic US politics is shit. It's an annoying dichotomy.
agree.
Dear Peter, Brasília is not up there in the rain forest. It is located in the central-west region of Brazil with a tropical savanna climate. And as such, it contains an extensive cover of grasses with scattered trees…😊
The statement was made as if he was speaking in the person of those in the southern states that wanted to break away. I’m sure that this is what he meant by this.
If you live in Brazil or anywhere else saved for Colorado then by default, you know more about the local geography than Peter does. He is a generalist, suspended belief and enjoy. a water carrier for the state department that if he showed up on the savanna with all that water, he’s carrying it would turn into a rainforest.
I feel your concern at Zeihan's casual ignorance and bombastic self confidence.
If you haven't seen the "Australia" video yet, a few days after this one, then you are in for a shock.
Watch it then read the comments from Australians. He mentions "sub-prime in Australia"😂😂😂😂😂😅😂😅
We could not stop laughing. The informed comments by Australians make it clear Zeihan is a US-centric noob that fails at anything south of the equator, likely Brazil too he has grossly wrong, I'll be watching for that video👁👁
@@seaneustace9838 This fact undoes his entire argument. I'm a brazilian who took him very seriously until now. But that was such a monumental slip up I can confidentally say he's pretty much full of crap.
@@Godfrey544 I agree with you Godfrey. I always thought he knew what he was on about and then I watched the Ireland one (where I am from). Couldn't believe how basic, general, and inaccurate it was. And I have been to Brazil many times. It doesn't seem like a country that will separate into different countries if international capital gets a bit tight. Quite the opposite, any perosn I met in Brazil is a committed Brazilian and the nationalism that they practise is the best form of it as expressed through sports, music, dancing, music, food, etc. Peter is speaking bollocks here.
@@MegaMd76 Thank you. I've been to Ireland as well for a month in Roscrea, one of the best moments of my life. Indeed Its easy for us to fall into Peter Zeihan's talk when its about issues we don't know. So its a good thing that he revealed to us his game by overreaching. Its a common thing with successful conmen. Pretty soon Zehein will just have American fans who love how he's spinning American decline. "No its not that the USA is a declining power, its a willing withdrawal and the enitre world will collapse without us."
As a Brit I can categorically say the minute Argentina goes anywhere near the Falklands our Navy will be ready. The Falklands war was an extremely popular political choice in the UK, no politician in their right mind would ignore that. We also have a very capable Navy independent of the US and act without them all the time. For example, we just sent a warship to Guyana to project power, something Peter said the British would not do and now in this video is apparently not capable of.
Yeah he's full of shit in the 90% of stuff he talks about which he doesn't know about.
Your attempt at character assassinating Peter failed.
Peter is interesting to listen to, but he’s typically American and thinks the entire world revolves around the Yanks. The current “After America” series is pointless too as America will not become isolationist. It completely depends on its hegemony to survive, something it simply can not afford to lose.
Britain, on the other hand, will slowly shift towards CANZUK which will enable the Brits to act far more independently of the US.
As an American who lived in the u.k. for a couple years as a politics student..I kind of thought of the UK as our 52nd state, after Canada. 🍻 Im kidding a little. A little tiny bit.
This is the guy that said the Russians blew up the German gas pipe line
I don’t think there will ever be a “post-American world” for South America
By Monroe you get it young lad!
Peter is sooooo wrong about Brazilian political system: the federal government is IMMENSELY powerful since most of tax payers money goes through it.
Out of the 27 states in Brazil, half of them are massively dependent on the federal government for their budgets (some have as much as 84% of their budgets paid by federal taxes redistribution) while the remaining either break even or foot the bill (about a 1/4 of states in each group)
There are only 6 states in Brazil that have a surplus with the capital Brasilia: Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais and Parana. Sao Paulo (1/3 of the country’s GDP and 22% of population) has the worst deal: of each dollar collected in federal taxes in the state, 92 cents never come back, with only 8% being returned in federal investments.
Ironically (or maybe by design, with minimum and maximum caps for representatives favoring smaller states) these richer states are underrepresented in both houses of congress. So even the states with larger economies and populations don’t have the necessary political power and have to stay in line with the federal government if they want any of that sweet, sweet tax payers money back…
The policial system in Brazil is so centralized that almost nothing can be done on the municipal level without the help of the state government, which in turn, more often than not, has to beg the president and his ministers for cash.
You just made his point for him. The prosperous southern states might someday break away rather than support the poor north.
The southern states are in terminal population decline and totally dependent on internal migration to keep their economies going. The demographics of places like Santa Catarina are comparable to European countries.
But, yes, it's a bad take to say Brazil has a decentralized system, specially compared to the US. The whole political structure is immensely centralized.
@@kennethkilpatrick3758 I was referring to his comment about the states having a lot autonomy and even more power than the federal government, which is patently wrong.
Early this year a state legislature passed a law banning gender theory for grade students and the federal Supreme Court stroke it down unceremoniously.
A city representative in Sao Paulo capital was impeached by his peers because of code of conduct violation (he took part in a church depredation) and one of the Supreme Court judges overruled the decision and reinstate his mandate.
Even public safety that should be left for the states still gets a lot of meddling from judges that live thousands of miles away from the problem: the police was prohibited to chase criminals into favelas in Rio, a sentenced drug lord had his possessions (including mansion, yacht and helicopter) turned back to him, and many other cases where states go hard on crime only for the federal courts to give it a pass.
@@kennethkilpatrick3758 Brazil will never breakaway, at least not in our life times. The population is too passive, unarmed and demoralized by this point. There was some hope with Operation Car Wash and the population tried to change course peacefully but the establishment struck back with a vengeance…
The last time a Brazilian state took to arms and rebelled against federal power was 91 years ago and it was squashed by the army, giving birth to a long lasting anti-gun legislation in the country.
The productive sector in Brazil is being smothered by the unproductives, which seem to be the majority now, with the brain drain and low fertility rates of the most developed parts of the country. Anyone who has the knowledge to see the writing on the wall and a passport/Visa will just move to a better country. That’s what I did more than a decade ago.
About Brazil, from someone with family members in South and NorthEast, living in the economic capital of the country (São Paulo) while having family and friends in other areas of the country working in the agrobusiness:
1. Despite all our shortcomings, we build our wealth with our resources and we have our own tech developed by some very high level agriculture research centers - the best being EMBRAPA.
2. Brazil is *way* more centralized than US, Canada or any other democratic reference you got - it was less so 100 years ago. After the centralist industrialist rule of Vargas and the Military Governments, real federalism is a mere distant dream.
The southermost state, Rio Grande do Sul, is broken by it's own demerits, not because his economic energy is drained to the norther states.
By economic reasons alone, São Paulo is the state giving more in taxes to the Union than receiving, but it's too big and diverse state to try anything (besides being a very unpractical proposition, to say the least...).
A secession of Southern States from Brazil to be, then, linked to Argentina for other reasons than economic, like cultural, is as absurd as Poland uniting with Russian for having some common cultural features.
The best case cenario of voluntary union is under a common market, like Mercosul.
Other than that, more of the historical normal: war, with the Brazilian South leading the way against the neighbours - Argentina, Uruguay or Paraguay - that's very unlikely, but more likely than a voluntary union as Zeihan sugests.
3. In the case of collapse of international trade, it happened before (being 1929 the most recent example), and the consequences were a regime change and *even stronger centralization* - besides industrialization boost to substitute imports. The only revolt was in São Paulo (South East, not South) in 1932, for constitutional liberal regime against autoritarianism, not for regional independence.
4. About the relationship between the neighbours and Argentina:
Chile has a tradition of fierce competition and independece, would never, ever, be under anything controled by Buenos Aires - best case cenario, an equal partner.
Uruguay: it's a buffer state between Brazil and Argentina, and will continue to be. As their population collapses - the worst case in South America - it could be the case for an increased presence of Brazilians, but that's it.
Paraguay: up until it's infrastructure of railroads and energy was integrated with Brazil's, it was more under the influence of Argentina, today it's Brazil the main power there - and nothing seems to change that in this century.
Bolivia: have stronger ties with Brazil because many Brazilian farmers have crossed the border and invested in the very productive agrobusiness, Brazilian style, there - the Argentinians didn't anything in the same magnitude.
The other countries of South America could be partners of Argentina, but never be in it's "sphere of influence" or something aproximate to that.
The disputes for the control of the Plata Basin are over, war between Brazil and Argetina is long a issue only for historians - like war between Denmark and Sweden.
It's more probable to Brazil fight side by side with Argentina against the British (take something under the British control in the Caribbean while the Argentinians grab Falklands/Malvinas) than to fight Argentina (suicidal from Argentinian point of view, irrational from the Brazilian perspective).
That was a pretty good analisys
Stop listening to Zeihan, and follow HoradrimBR for forecast on the Southern Cone.
Thanks for the sharp analysis.
Excelente, meu amigo! 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Ele claramente não sabe muito sobre o Brasil, no próprio vídeo acha que Brasília tá no norte kkk
It’s conveniently forgotten that in 2010 Peter predicted the collapse of China ‘within the next ten years’. That was thirteen years ago. I wouldn’t put too much thought into what this modern-day Nostradamus has got to say.
He also doesnt seem to understand much about brazil politics or geography
China definitely is on the way out though and his prediction wasn’t far off. Not the best example
and yet, here you are, every day, imbibing deeply of PZs wisdom…. 🤔
if you actually knew what is going on in China today in terms of their economy breaking down massively (watch China Update), you may have a different opinion of that...
While I think Peter's Trump comments are asinine, I will defend his China predictions. China is hurting more and more currently, and the ongoing forecasts are no better.
Brasilia is no where near the rain forest and Provinces in Brazil depend more and more on the federal gov.
Milei is a black swan for Zeihan, specially if he continues to succeed, Argentina will be a powerhouse in 10 years. Speeding up Zeihan's predictions.
Continues?? What did he succeed so far?
@@Bayard1503 1. Becoming president.
2. Actually trying something different.
@@Bayard1503 He's passed over 330 reforms already, which are valid right now.
And he has another 700 laws on the congress pipeline.
The the main success is to cultivate a massive amount of liberals in Argentina, classic liberals not "usa liberals" he's changed culture already and during his 4 years (or 8) of presidency will entrench a new way of thinking for Latam, and its already affecting the continent's countries.
Latam is not Europe or US because in the 20's Socialist thought penetrated the intelectual class deeply, and the only response was coup after coup, which decimated the region's prosperity.
Now cultural liberalism is taking hold.
@@celdur4635time will tell. Europe is quite a bit more prosperous with quite a bit more socialism. In fact, Zeihan refers specifically to the most socialist countries (France and the Scandinavians) as having the smartest natalist policies. You seem to be an ideologue which is coloring your thinking. It isn’t that spending is bad, it’s that not raising revenues to pay for it is bad. That’s why he’s talking about the inability to do math.
Zeihan’s entire premise that the US will become more isolationist is wrong though. The US relies on its hegemony, without it the US will decline rapidly and lose most of their global influence. It will literally never happen, which is why they are doing everything to stop trump from returning.
The Falkland Islands offer a good anchorage and airfield sat astride the sea routes to Cape Horn and so can threaten marine traffic between Atlantic and Pacific. The USA would much rather that facility remain in the hands of a friendly, reliable UK than an unpredictable Argentina.
I was going to say, Oh you mean those busy Cape Horn sea routes? Nobody goes around Cape Horn anymore except sailors trying to prove a point. However as climate degradation continues to mess with the Panama Canal there might be a small uptick in traffic, until a new canal is poked through southern Mexico.
@@geneappeal And in a time of crisis the USA will close both of those leaving just the two cape routes open. With the cooperation of allies like Brazil the Atlantic becomes a NATO lake
@@sitbestill8480 Name me a past crisis where the US closed the Canal?
Please
@@geneappeal If you were an Axis vessel then WW2
@@sitbestill8480 I would call WWII a bit more than a crisis. And not exactly recent.
I think the fresh air took the geography out of Peters mind…Brazil has a lot of problems but its capital city is not in the Amazon region!
As a Brazilian, Peter is high on something regarding "Buffer States."... CRAZY TALK. More relevant would be to talk about the Communist alliances in South/Central America and the potential conflicts arising from there, which is already a factor now; Guyanas. Those will likely grow as the USA retracts more and more.
I like watching him, but I think he's just too confident in what he presents and He's got a lot of BS.
@@hughjanis6439 100%! Peter to me is like... 40% real stuff, 30% Cocky BS, 30% Propaganda.
Re: The Falkland Islands - you said "imperialism vs anti-imperialism". To clarify; Argentina wants to colonise the Falkland Islands against the wishes of the indigenous inhabitants. Britain opposes this Argentinian imperialism, and is perfectly capable of doing without "America's help", thank you very much!
God save the King!
🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰
what a bunch of bs. Argentine 'imperialism"? hahaha
@@JimNZ Actually look up the history of the Falklands
@@JimNZ Change my mind.
God save the King!
Long live the free FALKLAND Islands!
🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧🇫🇰🇬🇧
@@walesruels they aren't free. You know how can you tell they aren't free? tell Falklanders to briefly pretend they are switching bands to Argies and see how UK's posture changes towards them. It's all about interests. It suits the UK that the islanders 'are free people able to exercise their free will as a territory'. The same thing that Barcelona tried before and was severely scolded by Europe as 'it is illegal for a territory under an Estate to declare itself free'.
(and it goes and goes and goes like a rabbit hole).
Nobody cares about Falkland. If my birth country had cared, for real, they would tried to give the islanders Argie's passports instead of trying to kick them out of the island.
@@JimNZMaybe spend 5 minutes learning about the subject you’re commenting on. The Falklands were uninhabited until the Europeans settled there (the first people to actually walk on the islands were British, btw), and though the Spanish, French, and British founded earlier settlements, they all got abandoned, and it’s the second British settlement founded in 1833 that is the current population of the islands. The current people there that had settled on an abandoned, uninhabited group of islands are British on a group of islands arguably first discovered by the British and definitely the first humans to walk on the islands were British. So Argentina would be a foreign power invading (aka colonizing if they were successful) what is a British territory that is natively British first explored by the British who were the first humans to ever be there.
A strange take that Britain can't do anything without the US in this region.
US didn't support Britain in the 1982 war either, which they won easily.
Zeihan always weirdly negative about Britain
He is a non anglo american. They have some weird hang-up about Britiain, same is true of non Anglo Aussies, Canadians, and Kiwis. Always trying to diminish or breaknthe ties that bind so they feel less insecure.
Some how a famously capable navy, 3rd in the world, which is currently building more ships, wont be able to defend the same islands it defended 40 years ago against the dame country, which currently barely has a military.
said nice things about pound sterling though
stunning scenery
Wow, I completely missed the times where Trump used the power of his office to go after anyone who disagreed with him. Silly me, I thought it was Biden (nee Obama) this whole time.
ummm, ever heard of Michael Cohen who was literally put in jail by the Justice Department at the orders of trump for writing a book? I thought you people were all about the 1st Amendment? Not for Him?
silly you indeed
Yeah. Peter thinks he hides his biases and then spews them like a political operative.
Trumpist detected. Opinion discarded.
@@hillaryclintondidnothingwrong I'm an independent who calls out the obvious. Just like you are a Hillary LARP'er.
Disagree on the Falklands point there.
The British didn't have great power projection in the south when the Falklands War happened but it didn't stop them from sending a few warships down there and retaking the island without US approval or help. The Royal Navy may not be the dominant force it once was when the British Empire was a thing but British stubbornness & pride is as strong as ever.
If it is attacked the British will respond regardless of the cost just the same as anyone else would.
And the Royal Navy is even less powerful now than during the Falklands War, at the end of which I was born (no, I'm not joking).
As a Brazilian, I think Peter looks at my country with some naive understanding. Brazil is a Federation and works as a Federal Government indeed. The states have limited power compared to the Federal government, and many depend on the central government (for instance, many states depend on receiving financial remittances to function normally). So although I agree that Argentina has a bright future, it is debatable to which degree Brazil is doomed.
Peter made no mention of the Argentine new leader nor the reconnect to the American dollar. That is huge, and bad and good realism.
you may have noticed the summer scene… i think this series is pre recorded
Brazil is very centralized bro, and also dont underestimate brazilian nationalism, as someone who lives in the state of Paraná a southern state, i would rather eat shit and live in misery than become part of Argentina.
I want to live like P. Zeihan, at least the hiking part
Hiking is free, what's holding you?
@@peterflohr7827@peterflohr7827 First, nothing is free. You need to leave your work and move from the town to the mountains. In my case, I need to move from the tropics to a more pleasant and less dangerous environment. ; Cheers ;)
@@indysasaZeihan didn't leave his work. He's in business as a consultant (and youtuber). He moves around were he's needed and does his hiking. I admit, walking shoes aren't free...
Said the the Brits couldn’t do anything without the US during the first Falklands conflict, they managed just fine, I’ve heard conflicting reports from actual military analysts on upcoming growth of UK military and economic power, I think you are blind in an UK upcoming political and military project that’s going to change the geopolitical landscape across the world, even for the US.
"Brits can't do anything without the US?" We didn't have the aid of our "friends" in '82.
Yeah, and now you can't even field a single of your own expeditionary divisions according to your own generals.
Not strictly true, they helped us refuel. Also it doesn't take much to beat the Argentinians.
...He's talking '23 not '82. The Britain of '23 is much different from '82.
Brits has the capacity to flatline any country on earth!
His whole point is they are fading in projection ability.
How are so many commenters here getting his point about the Falklands wrong? He's not saying that Argentina will miraculously have a better navy than Britain, he's saying that Britain may eventually cease to have the interest or luxury of maintaining a naval presence that far away for that little benefit, not when they'll have more pressing concerns far closer to home. This is a matter of circumstances dramatically shifting over time, and that's a valid argument, because that's the story of human history.
I love how people especially "intellectuals" get the whole "MAGA" movement or "Trumpism" wrong everytime.
That struck me too. When Peter was talking about silencing enemies of the state, the first thing that came to mind was you-know-who standing in Philadelphia on a stage decked out with sideways-hung flags and red backlight, speaking about the threat of ... MAGA and Trumpism.
Peter is like all leftist his arrogance is insufferable. He should stick to demographics when he talks American politics his biases cloud his ability to see
I was expecting just the opposite example. Countless legal attacks, ballot blocking, collusion conspiracies and ginned up protests.
I had the exact same thought. Think over the last decade or so of cancel culture and it is Trump's fault? Peter doesn't understand the inner workings of culture. But that isn't surprising given he's basically in acedemia and boardrooms, not main street.
His take on Tru.pism struck me odd, as it was Trump that really kicked off reshoring of American Manufacturing before covid. Also pushed to bring on more energy. All the things the Peter said is needed to push America into another huge growth phase. Just an odd take.
I like Peter but it’s outrageous to suggest that Britain is incapable of defending the Falkland Islands without the USA
I believe america's actually moving towards an oligarchal society.
You’re just saying that because the current administration stole the election in front of everyone, and then gaslighted everyone who complained and organized a false flag in the middle of their protest, and try to paint them as insurrectionists as opposed to the people who just stole the election right in front of everyone’s eyes! I’m sorry, but I think they already got away with it. The problem was King George got a white way with a lot until he didn’t. Tyrants find themselves hanging from Bridges by piano wire more often than it’s comfortable to think on. Power is sometimes too tempting for some people they often don’t realize that they are risking their lives.
The problem for the elite in America is that they’ve had an attempted power grab during the pandemic attempted to start a war with Russia and another in the Middle East, and have failed miserably. Do you have veterans telling their children not to join the military and they’re afraid to implement the draft because they know that the whole population will resist them and this will publicly make America look bad, you have the bricks coalition, trying to undermine the petrodollar, safer, forcing a gold standard on the west, I don’t see the succeeding, but nonetheless, it shows that the whole world is spitting in the face of the United States in the west, and including its own citizens, so those who have captured the government know that their power is small They can use the bully pulpit, false flag flag attacks and the press to try to get people to do what they want but when it comes to actual force those prospects seem to be diminishing as the days go by. PC makes a big deal about the US Armed Forces and its navy, which is in fact impressive until you can’t get anyone to man it except foreigners who then try to take it for themselves. Pretorian and stuff.
Brazil does not have provinces but rather states. Brasilia in not in the rain forest ….
I wonder could you do episode on Poland in this series. Would be much appreciated 😊
A number of folks here are somewhat negative of Peter. Couple of thoughts. No, Peter does not have the depth of knowledge of those of you who live in the countries he speaks of. And your points may well be valid. However, he makes you think. He provides a framework to help folks understand - at least to some extent - the wider world around them. And he does it in a reasonably entertaining format. So, while far from perfect, I find his morning commentary entertaining and informative. If you don't like him, find some other commentator to watch.
As a Brazilian, i mostly disagree. First that Brazil doesn't have provinces, it has states, but the main thing I disagree is that "the states almost have more power than the federal government", that's not true, states are very powerless here in Brazil, way less powerful than in the US. There are some fringe movements for succession of the southern states but they have almost no traction and the main government wouldn't let it happen, but i can understand that Peter's point is that it would happen under extreme economic hardship, still i don't think the southern states could achieve succession.
He is right when it comes to taxation and budget. Each state and municipality has its own system, in connection to the Federal one
We are fond of our Agro - but we do not know in reality the problems concerning our potential in the near future. The Cerrado needs water and fertilizer, then it needs transportation (by trucks in bad roads). Then there is the cost of waiting at the ports. I can only say that 'o brasileiro é um forte' - but we have to think ahead. And that is what PZ is pushing us to.
My understanding of what he was saying, was under different economic conditions, and a more expansionist Argentina, looking to grab territory away from Brazil, whether by proxy breakaway states or anexxation
You have to take PZ like what if history, you kind of have to suspend belief. I love these people on the Internet attacking him, I attack him all the time, and being wrong on a bunch of stuff. What do you think this guy has a DeLorean and just got back from the future? What he’s doing, which is quite interesting to me and fun guarantee he’s going to get most things wrong. I don’t really know that that’s his fault. Read the opening paragraphs from the Napoleon of Notting Hill, that’s the nature of his business. The smart people are looking for thought experiments not for a prophet.
Y'all look at Peter's background, this was recorded before Javier Milei arrived on the scene.
Comical to hear him describe the US as a "non-confederated" political system. I mean I get that these things are a matter of perspective and of degree but compared to most of the rest of the world the US seems a heavily, ridiculously confederated system.
Disagree. The US could be a lot more confederated. Politics used to be local. In my lifetime I can remember it.
The legacy media diminishing in influence is going to turn the tide on that for good. Other things that could help would be congress removing some of the war power the president has, and expanding the size of congress (it was supposed to expand with the size of the population). Washington wanted the constitution to limit the size of a congressional district to 31,000 iirc.
I think the United states is a borderline case but I would still say they are federal. The states doesn't have more power than the federal government. Maybe as much but not more
States in the U.S. have considerably more powers of govt than the Federal government. Most of the laws that actually impact Americans lives directly are state not Federal. But, you are right in one very important sense. The powers the Federal government does have, are the most important in the modern world thus giving the Federal government more influence over the direction of the country.@@zi326
The US is more centralized of a federation than Canada, nowadays anyway. When Canada formed as a federation over 150 years ago, it was the other way around.
@@yodorob Really? Do the canadian provinces have their own laws. What exactly is it that makes them not united. I understand why Quebec but whats for the rest
Dear Peter, I love to listen to your sometimes wild predictions, if only for mind stimulation.
I am an American living in Brazil since 1998 (this time)...First Brasilia is not in a tropical area...second have to agree Southern Brasil not likely to leave Brasil...Brasil's military might have an opinion about that...😮..no Argentine Army will ever match Brasil's..but good try
About 6 years ago, this guy gave a speech to American farmers (its available on RUclips) where he said Brazils agriculture business would be done in 5 years "The last years of competing with Brazil for American farmers he said". Well, how did that turn out...
@@finalcut302he is never right this guy. He is cia analysist
The so called separatists in southern Brazil don't amount to more than half a dozen loudmouths. Plus, much of the military manpower are conscripts and if thing really go bad, we can expect massive desertions.
Politically, we are not far off the argentinians. We have our own fascist crop, which is also mixed with some weird strain of socialism.
@@finalcut302Can you provide more details about the speech? The ones I watched didn't say that. Deforestation using imported Russian fertilizer and now diesel to grow soy for China is the high inputs cost he was referring to. I'd like to see more industry in Brazil.
@@ericreed4535 The problem lies with the numbers and how things changed. Brazil is a large oil exporter now. Oil refineries are no rocket science, Russia and India just sells it cheap enough. Brazil just imports a quarter of its current diesel consumption anyway.
About fertilizers and high inputs, again the numbers. How much higher? Is it higher? In tonnes of NPK, how much more? 20% more? 200% more? How much it increases the production costs?
About the collapse of global trade, can we expect morroco to stop selling phosphate anytime? Russia and others will stop exporting potash? The whole assumption that without the US global trade will colapse is questionable.
In resume, we have a polynomial equation here, Peter lists the variables but without the constants you can't asserts anything.
the moment a gringo speaks about latin america politics its either a well constructed argument or the most insane stuff ever.
He somehow is wrong about everything he said about Brazil. We are a federation, not a confederation, the southern separatism moviment is a joke, they have very litltle to no support among the southern population, the capital (Brasilia) is literally in the middle of the country, not "way up north" as he said. Even if Argentina solves their problems ( which I hoe they do) it will take decades before they can reach Brazilian soft and hard power in South America and, as was in the 20th century, they usually agree or reach a settlement about geopolitical questions in the region. Its much more likely that our countries (ARG and BR) grow closer and prosperous rather that one take territories from the other.
When comparing the Cerrado and Argentina's Pampa - we are way worse than our hermanos.
I would love a Peter Zeihan reading list (aside from his own books of course). Top ten and comprehensive.
Zeihan is a buffoon at times when he lets his imagination go wild and asserts things with no basis in reality. Now I see why some people call him a grifter.
Peter, to look at the military accomplishments and tradition of Great Britain over the last 200 years and to casually say that Argentina will be able to take the Falkland Islands in the 2030s and 2040s is insane.
This is true Peter, after all of the British Commonwealth only exists to keep relations going, so you can more easily implement those states back into the British empire, as is true with the French equivalent. Maybe we can get the Simpsons to do a revives British empire in the same way they did one with Lennon rising up in the Soviets coming back. That would be kind of cool maybe you can even have a queen come back from the dead Hit Charlie over the head and common nincompoop or something like that would be quite fun
England didn't have any trouble defeating Argentina without US last time
And Falklands is considerably better defended now
Argentinas armed forces, by contrast, have been allowed to rot since that defeat
There's a squadron of eurofighters stationed on the Falklands too
What is Zeihan even talking about?
Zeihan is almost always fact free. That said the carriers broken down before crossing fhe isle of whight so he is not completely wrong either.
@@kth6736 carriers? You mean 1 carrier and its been repaired and already on a foreign deployment.
The argies now are preparing to conquer Brazil by 2030, the falklands conquest will come right after
Peter always pics great spots for videos.
are you serious about the UK power projection? they bombed Falklands from 12200km away with 60s tech
as an brazilian i think peter underestimating the power and the importance of the amazon rainforest
I think this was taped a while ago, way before Argentina's presidential race.
Probably spring or summer of 2023. However, it would be interesting if it was recorded in spring or summer of 2024, would it not?
Please do Nigeria, After America || Peter Zeihan
They're already protesting the austerity measures in the streets.
Meanwhile Milei is already overreaching as far as his mandate and wants to rule by mandate.
If he makes it to 2025 without violence on the streets it will be a miracle.
I would love to hear anything you have to say on Uruguay....
There's a popular meme about certain types of new technology which are very high on the anticipation scale but equally low on the practicality scale.... We say "they're the technology of the future - and they always will be."
I'm reminded of this every time someone talks about Argentina's potential and I think to myself, yes; they're the superpower of the future... and they always will be. They're like the hotshot rookie in sports who has all the skills but none of the discipline and drive necessary to convert them into success.
Like much of Latin America, Argentina seems to be its own worst enemy. They've got so much going for them yet can't shake their addiction to whomever the latest and greatest political savior is who's going to rescue them from the last one.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, it's true, and at the end of Argentina's thousand miles is a fantastic, prosperous future but as a country, they can never seem to get past about the 50 mile mark.
Oh my goodness, you just explain to me what happened to my flying car and all those Nazi secret weapons after World War II.
This is exactly how I felt when Adam Douglas explain to me where all those missing socks had gone!🤣
Brazil will not split. There is no cultural or economical reason for that. The inequality among states decreased a lot in the last 30 years.
The moment Peter said "We'll turn into Argentina 🤪" I couldn't stop laughing for a good minute 😂
Someone needs to take him to a hospice urgently
Love your office. Thank you for the information.
A senior Royal Navy officer recently insisted that the Royal Navy has enough warships to protect HMS Queen Elizabeth. Rear Admiral Burton, former Commander UK maritime forces, said:
“We have enough frigates and destroyers to protect that task group. We will use coalition frigates and destroyers, but we have enough to deliver a sovereign task group.”
Great job. Thank You.
Thanks Peter, if only we believed in ourselfs as much as you do
great vid, thanks Peter
It will be interesting to see if this new leader can do what it takes to turn Argentina arround.
turn it around into dollars that he will steal and bring to another country (which is probably why dollarization-- no one wants Argentine Peso so stealing doesn't get you much...)
Hope the best for them for real, it would be great to have another economic power in the atmosphere not that it we can feet with the US I’m not holding my breath however, even if the guy has actual good intentions, and I don’t know it’s hard he seems at the end of the line for the money train, which is about to leave the station With the boomers retiring. Maybe if he brings in some biotech marketers and tries to sell the billionaires on life extension stuff you could use some of the scenes out of the boys from Brazil or that 1980s bad version of Kermit West reanimator by Lovecraft and splice it together to sell these rituals guys that are afraid of going to hell on eternal life within the body, it’s a pipe dream and it will never happen with these areas literally pay the freezer body parts so when they find a cure for death, they can bring them back. Meanwhile, the warehouse clubs are kicking their heads around like soccer balls. If they’re rich, I’ve never been anything it’s out of touch.
When Peter says that Britain dosnt have the power projection to intervein in the south atlantic id like to remind everyone thats exactly what the Americans, and others said in 1982 aswell.
Lol, Its crazy that you did this segment without mentioning the biggest wildcard ever. Javier Milei is the craziest most libertarian leader the world has probably ever known. Whether he succeeds or fails will probably affect policy not just in Argentina but the rest of Latin America.
Thank you for bring this up. I was about to ask Peter if he's been paying attention to current events in Argentina; the glaring absence of Milei (and what he represents) in his analysis suggests that he isn't.
@@StarFishPrimo they that's kind of my read too. It's such a wild card and he won by such a landslide that how his policies work / don't work will be hugely influence. That's even assuming he can get through all the policies through, which being blocked by his political opponents could be just as influential going forward.
Maybe, but Argentina has a government that is already slamming the brakes on all of this new thinking stuff. Peron he ain't.
Thank you
I hope there would be a series on Australia/Singapore/Indonesia
As a Singapore PR who has lived in Jakarta and Sydney, I would like to see that too. In this series it will probably on cover Australia
And New Zealand, while we're at it.
Looking forward to your Australia video
First of all, I always liked objective thoughts, Argentina despite the deviation of the currency, is the 2nd Country with the best quality of life of South America; and even though our terrible Governments wanted to completely obliterate the Middle Class here, it still exists. We have everything to sustain ourselves though time and (objectively) I have always wondered: Does Brazil still maintains that it Middle Class it was formed some decades ago the Public Data says? 500 Dollars? (Because earning more than in that in Brazil you are not Middle Class, you are Upper) Here in Argentina is 1300 Dollars historically, now it's 444 Dollars (calculated) because of the current crisis we all know. (All I say is on Data)
2nd Best quality of life? I guess the 40% of Argentinians in poverty think otherwise.
I won't dramatize on all the problems and corruption that all countries have, but more or less Peter is right lots of advantages of "even" a Country like this.
do you have a source for those numbers? argentina is behind uruguay and chile. not by far but still
@@theuselessdrunk when I read PZ's book and heard him saying that Argentina would be better off that Brazil I got really mad. Then going into rational mode, I got deep into his arguments. Argentina has one of the best agricultural and cattle farming lands in the World - with water and a more protected climate than Brasil. We do have the #1 soy crop in the world, but man, what a struggle to get those grains to the ports. And the land is thin, needs fertilezer and water - and a climate change will do a lot of damage. This is just one of the issues, but there is more, and I think he will get back to it.
@@VolneyFaustini The problem of such statements lies on the numbers. Brazil's land is not thin by the way and Argentina has worse droughts than Brazil.
Transportation costs gets smaller every year. Argentina's main advantages comes from plain terrain and temperatures that favors organic matter and nitrogen retantion. This way it requires less fertilizers. There was a problem with iron and alluminum oxides in brazilian soils but once you properly saturate the soil with phosphate and dolomite, and keep cover crops, the maintainence consumption is much lower.
That said the numbers speaks but than selves, Brazil's soy, maize and meat production are multiples times higher now.
Zeihan's predictions keeps failing because he ignores the facts, the hard numbers. If you don't fit numbers in your teory the world won't fit in your teories.
I'm still waiting for China and global trade collapse btw.
A guy from the US speaking about ‘imperialism’ - Hawaii springs to mind.
If anything in a post American world (But is the USA really ready to give up that power? I kinda doubt it.) I see the UK being able to hold on to the Falklands more easily. In the event of another conflict the UK would be able to take the gloves off and use its submarines. I'm pretty sure that some unrestricted submarine warfare against Argentina would bring any conflict to an end rapidly (and even force Argentina to leave the Falklands in the unlikely scenario that they took them again) without aircraft carriers or American support. Since the end of WW2 the secondary nations like the UK haven't faught an "anything goes" war where the enemies commerce, infrastructure and population are all legitimate targets and hence most people think that such a war would be impossible today. I believe that especially if the US is no longer a security guarantor that historically brutal wars will return with a vengeance.
The dream of American isolationism has always been an unrealistic dream and probably an domestic political tool which Zeihan seems to have fallen for to a degree. I agree that the USA is currently in one of its navel gazing phases when it disengages somewhat, but sooner or later it will be forced to sober up and realise that it actually needs the rest of the world. The pendulum swung too far towards globalization, next it will swing too far in the opposite direction, ad infinitum.
All the best.
What about milei?
Do one on Australia please!
And how the Australian states will balkanise within the country
@@farnarkleboy actually no, was interesting to see each state fighting when covid hit. Qld has the energy, nsw and vic the economy, wa has the resources. I think Australia will absolutley break apart into separate areas.
Southern Brazil separatism is not a serious argument. If Peter stopped at taking down taxation barriers to deal preferably with Argentine, he would have a point, but separatism is simply not real