When I say 'feet' I mean CFS "Cubic Feet per Second" www.paypal.me/... Theme Music: Aram Bedrosian "Weightless" • Weightless - Aram Bedr... arambedrosian....
Sounds like they are going for some sort of Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) contract for the rebuild. This is where you engage the construction contractor at an early stage in design (60%) and you develop the design to 100% with input from the contractor. They bring practical solutions, innovation, common sense and experience to the table (something that some engineers lack!). It also allows early start of the work as the contractor can start to mobilize to the site, build access roads, lay down areas and establish infrastructure like the concrete batch plant in parallel with finishing off the design.
It really shouldn't need to be said but, um; THANKS FOR BEING SANE AND SOBER! You're a refreshing breath of fresh air after wading through the hair-on-fire crowed that seems to take over RUclips and the Press on these issues. Also, good work avoiding the bloody minded arrogance of certain engineers explanations to we poor peasants (enge-splaining or spanner-speak), I got a degree in engineering too and its bloody insufferable having to smile and nod when these nit wits talk like Thurston Howell the third.
I'm an engineer too. It took Juan to explain it in a way that I could actually understand what's going on.....If you combine the graphs of the water flows on a 150 day period ( it's a long process to get there ) you can see they lost control when they FAILED to lower the lake level before the storm at the end of January. They should have watched the weather channel. ... I just watched drone footage of the new opening on another channel ( wrist slap ) and the terracing now makes a whole lot of sense. Also the spillway looks like it was originally designed to follow the contour of the ground level. Given what I've seen ( and it isn't much ) part of the route was planned around the bedrock as much as possible. People keep saying the cause is the change in slope. I'm only guessing but that change of slope had a lot to do with the rock formation and that the break occurred when the base went from bedrock to soft ground. Core drilling will confirm that. ....That spillway is 4 feet thick concrete, the same as an airport runway. 27 feet of water flowing on it has a lot of kinetic energy but the basic pressure is only about 9 PSI. That's not going to move that spillway.....To include the contractor in the design phase is a good idea. They can help to include cost and TIME savings into the design and you get a better product as a result as well. ( see my comment on time and material on the house ).....By lowering the flow rate they can get the lake to a lower level. That's the throttling Juan referred to in earlier updates.
I'll throw two examples out.......I posted this a week ago. I had to do some electrical renovations. The contractor was humming and hawing at $3,000. He knew he was high, but there were a lot of unknowns. We finally agreed on "time and material" capped at $3,500. I paid just under $2,000. .....Other example. I was at n interview with a company that made the fuel line assembly for the Chrysler minivan in the 1990's. The way Chrysler had designed it, it was going to cost $112.00 EACH. When I was at the interview they had redesigned it with Chrysler's approval to suit their production method. They were selling it for $12.35 and making a profit.......The moral of the story, it pays to involve the people doing the work in the design process.
Thanks Juan. When we next build a Dam, how about using that water to drive Barley-Sugar Twist Tubes. As are now under development for Tidal Energy, The UK Mersey Estuary is one possible location. The "Pipe" is the Turbine. High Performance Ferrite magnets are free of corrosion issues, and cost little more than steel to produce. Magneto Rotors. Each tube joint becomes a generator. To date Metrology is only at small scale.
Thanks for the feedback, Ferrite Magnets are vitreous "Ceramics" so the Iron is not available as a metal. It's a good point, and certainly needs research. Plenty of Junk ends up in the sea, Samples of old submerged Ferrite magnets from the pre 1950's required.
Juan your dedication is laudable but man you are on vacation... the news can wait, enjoy some time off and enjoy life! Hoping you will have a relaxing holiday.
Hi Juan, Thank you for taking the time to keep us up to date, while on your holiday time with your family, great reporting and explanation, twice that of the DWR, have a safe vacation, best wishes from Canada and we are continuing to keep our American friends in our prayer's.
Thanks for another great report Juan!! Don't know where you find the time to do it. Cant wait to see the re-build this summer. Keep up the great reporting!! We will be watching from Kentucky. Best to you and your family!
I appreciate your being a pilot and your attention to correct terminology and clarity. You, sir, are one of the best investigative journalists to come online in a long time. In the old school tradition: "The Facts, man, just the facts." Thanks much.
Another great video of information, thks for the answer about using the river tubes during the power plant discharge, I was wondering about that looking at the plans, Keeping up with whatever info I can hear about the rebuild and running of the Oroville Spillway. Coming to you from Evacuation Area 1A, Oroville, Ca......Great Job......
I love your style of presentation T.J., absolutely refreshing. Thank you to your family for allowing us some of their special time. We know why DWR doesn't use pictorial displays.... it would make too much sense! British say Tur byne, America says it both ways-means the same thing according to engineers or is that engyneers. Great presence of mind to shield mic in wind, loud-n-clear Cap'n. Shows your a heads up guy. cya ..too funny!
Enjoy your vacation Juan & family.. Drove through the Monterey Peninsula on a family vacation to C.A. as a teen and remember how beautiful it was & aquarium is one of the best in the world, best wishes..
I want to give my Thank You as well for all the info, I cant make it to their meetings but I have hope to see it right here on the blocinario channel. Thanks again👍😀
Thanks so much for all your conscientious work to keep us Interested Parties (like the whole State of CA and beyond) updated, especially those of us living downstream in NorCal!
Appreciate the updates, even while on you're vac'n! 👍😎 "It's gonna be a doozy!" is right, given all that's happened so far. Look forward to what you find out at the first community outreach meeting later this month. Thx again JB!
Juan, as a fellow commercial aviator, I somehow missed all your previous videos about aviation. I'm now on board. This Oroville dam reporting is fantastic. Positive rate---gear up!
Juan, that new mic is terrific given the Central Valley winds you had to holler into. You brought to mind John Cameron Swayze and Timex. Thanks for the update.
I'm no audiophile, but rather than shielding the mic, maybe concentrate more on diverting your voice into the mic. Great work BTW. Through all this work that is going to happen over the summer, it would be nice if they would let someone set up a camera and capture a time lapse of the work being completed.
been following your reports for awhile just subscribed. love the unbiased way you report your the only one i watch from michigan to get these reports.keep up the good work.
Welcome Montery! Nice to have you out here (huge fan of the channel)! If you end up at any of the brewery's or pubs let me know, I'll gladly buy you a beer.
I have been watching all your videos since the story broke. Great reporting. My question is.... if they are so concerned with the 865 level, then why did they ever let it go about 865 back in February? I do realize that the spillway was open and it was still flowing over the emergency spillway but why were they not letting it out rapidly as it inched over 865 back then in Feb?
At the time they thought the emergency spillway would function as designed, and wouldn't encounter massive head cutting towards the emergency spillway foundation.
The emergency spillway was used because they lost control of all other means to reduce reservoir levels. The severe erosion that initially occurred when the main spillway was damaged raised serious and legitimate concerns about continued erosion compromising the rest of the upper spillway and supporting base structure around that part of the dam, and flow was drastically reduced through the main spillway. The erosion also caused the Hyatt power plant to be taken offline to protect it, further reducing the controlled outflow available.
When was the last winter they had to use the spillway? It has been years of drought. Was the soil under the spillway so dried out it shrunk and generated voids under the slab that could have caused structural issues for it? They did not build on bedrock as the pictures show.
According to a DWR presser, despite the work on the Oroville spillwa and lower allocation from the reservoir, they'll still be able to deliver an 85% overall allocation to southern customers due to the extensive snow pack.
Love the updates from Northern VA! I know you are a busy man, but I am a huge aviation enthusiast and would love to see some cockpit footage of your day job! Keep up the great work.
Thank you for explaining it all. If you get the chance to go to one of those community meetings will you find out when or if they are going to put in an emergency siren system. I haven't heard anything about it. Thanks again for taking time out of your family vacation to bring us these updates.
San Louis looks pretty full! Can you fly over Shasta? The Oroville spillway has been open for about 12 hours, and the water level elevation is 865.5, so it is a slow process, (which I suspect may have to be sped up next week to outpace the coming rain/snowmelt enhanced inflows.) The press conference had me baffled about the closure of Hyatt - thanks for the explanation. Still baffled about scheduling non-emergency maintenance work during the critical flood season, but not the explanation! The CEI designation discussion was also a bit baffling. Bill made it sound as though the forensic report was never going to be closed to the public, and wasn't sure how we all had that idea. I'm pleased that several CA legislators spoke up on behalf of their constituents and strongly demanded that the information be accessible to all. We will find out soon. I'm anxious to find out about the soundness of the bedrock for both spill areas due to the high degree of weathering. I'm also concerned about the timing of the two-day on site forensic team - it rained most of the time while they were inspecting the dam and spillway - probably not the best time to find leaks. I hope they plan a return trip. This was another great report from a true celebrity in the world of California Hydrological Disasters. Thanks Juan!
Thanks for the update Juan. I have to blow my own horn for calling this spill two videos back. 35,000 CFS and a long spill! There is certainly a ton that can be done to prep for the work. So far, no mention of anchoring piles into bedrock, but hopefully it will become part of the plan. As opposed to just filling the hole with concrete and building over top, piling into bedrock would be more stable and probably faster. This approach is also well suited to a staged approach since all the piles could be placed and they can build the spillway in sections. In a worst case, if they ran out of time they could still spill around the piles without any risk of damage. This approach is basically like building an elevated highway on a slant. Yes, compressed concrete underneath, right up to the base of the spillway, but since it is sitting on piles it will not be compromised by settling or erosion. Should this approach be taken, it may be possible to start sinking pilings after this spill and before the next.
Juan, thanks for another brief. I think the root cause of this failure will come down to the destructive power of cavitation. It happened on the left spillway at Lake Powell in the 1980s. You can watch a RUclips video about that incident, too! The solution is simple engineering modifications to the new construction. Keep up the good work, sir!
This site appears to be one of the early sentinel earthworks which will be called upon to respond to an increasingly energetic hydrologic cycle as global temperature rises. Here in South Florida our experiences are rather slow and plodding. You guys are facing rather dramatic abrupt failure if the civil institutions can't keep up. We are all watching with hope to learn how to cope in our own communities. Thanks. One question you may consider at the town meeting is what water storage extremes are being considered by the Department. Could they envisage a needed future design adjustment for 20% , 40%, 60% increase in peak water inflows and cyclic loading extremes to the structure?
Another great video, thanks. Also, thanks for keeping politics out of your reporting. The politics for Oroville Damn will get nasty when it is time to pay for the repair.
Thank you Juan for taking time while on vacation...!!! How is the drive around Pacific Grove out to 17 Mile Drive?? Great to see San Luis Reservoir full..!! I used to hunt north of 152 all the way to Mount Hamilton on private ranches.
Ok, so here is my concern with all this. When the storms started back in December they brought the lake level from 725 feet to 850 feet in just 4 weeks. Then in early February when they shut down the spillway it went from 850 feet to 900 feet in roughly 10 days. If they get another series of storms that bring in a similar quantity of water, they won't be starting from 725, they will be starting from somewhere between 850 and 865. What happens if the spillway construction is at a stage where it cannot accomodate that much flow.
I know you said 60% engineering package but all I heard was cha-ching cha-ching. Contractors tend to clean up at that level of client chaos. It will be interesting to see if the contract award calls out any quantities for concrete and steel - I hope those metrics are public and tracked publicly. Great job dude - keep it up!
Wow, Juan, we are witnesses to the unfolding of a monumental happening. I was in the Oroville Earthquake. It was the last straw and I moved away. But I certainly appreciate your honest and informative videos.
Another very good report Juan... yes the DWR is 100% in CYA mode.... Kevin Dossey is the lead engineer and he has covered his butt by saying he followed the protocall... but the reality is any competent engineer would have realized a potential risk and would have investigated the subsurface conditions when they were patching cracks and saw water seeping through the backside of the slab... no different than if they saw water coming through the dam... would they just ignore it? If these guys were maintaining a bridge like the Golden Gate it would have fallen into the bay and their excuse would have been that they were following the rules... IMO passing the buck is not acceptable...
Did DWR discuss the target elevation they want for the reservoir for the start of or during construction? Still wondering if their aim is to fill Oroville or close to it or just keep it down below a certain level no matter how much runoff they get. I have a forecast model of elevation and the MSW plan now seems to keep it tracking to full or near full.
Thank you for what you do, even more so for the way you do it. I am better informed that my sister that lives near Placerville. I am curious as to why you haven't mentioned the "evidence" of explosives, and the fact that that it is the "ONLY" way for the spillway to have failed. lol I can't believe some of the stuff I have read/watched.
I used to be a power dispatcher and I'm starting to feel right at home here. The reservoir is full, the spillway is broken and the only other means of discharging water is through the power plant so lets take half of it out of service.
The upper spillway is the ace. It is what saved the whole situation. It wouldn't be prudent to demolish and rebuild any of the upper spillway until the emergency spillway renovation is complete. For example, should a 100 year or 500 year rainstorm event hit this summer.
On the off chance another hole developed like last time, they would shut it off and patch the hole before it expanded. In their presentation a week ago they said remove and replace, or, repair. Even though I think it would work with a repair for another 50 years, in terms of public safety perception, they will have to rebuild it entirely and get the money from their water customers. Will that happen this summer? We'll see.
Cause. Reaction. Solution. 60% is a good start to contract out. I'm sure they are all on 'tender hooks' to do it right having learned what they have so far. Adding to that the clock tick-tocking away the valuable time required to get the job done. Thanks.
Thanks again for your persistent coverage here. I do have a question that I hope you will eventually answer: In the diagram of the Hyatt Power Plant, the turbines each have a penstock. Turbines number 1,3, and 5 have green arrows by them, The even numbered turbines each have two-way arrows. Can you figure out why, and what it signifies? Dave in St. Louis, Mo. By the way, we here in Missouri have also had our own Electric generating reservoir disaster. You can Google Taum Sauk Mountain disaster and find out about that.
soularddave2 : 3 of the turbines can be operated in reverse as pumps to pump water back into the reservoir. The idea is that (if the reservoir water level is low enough to allow) water can be pumped up using cheap electricity and drawn down later at peak electricity demand for a quick, responsive bit of add generation capacity. It's like a potential energy battery.
I believe that the even numbered turbines can be reversed to be pumps to move water up to the reservoir, during hours when electrical demand is low. At hours of peak demand, the water comes back down to generate electricity.
Can you explain how the inlet would scour if the lake level got to low. Have any links or diagrams to help me visualize how that would happen and what that means? Thanks!
well since you commented that the floor of that spillway was just laying there, it flatly was only a matter of time before a major fail..because that is a carpet of concrete sections with a rebar mat so every time they spilled and got that pressure wave rolling that carpet and flexing that rebar well who knows how long the rebar at that bend over spot where it braced against the down slope had been flex fractured, and max flow ripped that whole panel off and it was all over. and they want to do concrete again ..
juan...as I watched Bill Coyle speak at his latest briefing...I would agree with your second point regarding 60 per cent. Sounded like the contractor would start with a 60% design concept of the spillway. Coyle made it sound like the last 40% had not been quite agreed upon by all involved.
Thanks for the power plant explanation, helps! We love you, come visit Diclosure Media Chat room any time, they loved your visit! Thanks for all you do!
It's good to see they added more shotcrete but wondering why it was such a dismal effort of only a few guys working and just one of them placing it... ? they should have had 3-5 just blasting shotcrete all over that left hillside.. all that brown color rock will erode if it is not protected. IMO addressing and preventing any further erosion under the slab is critical.. if they start to loose ground it's going to be a real mess... Look at the muddy water coming from that left side as the spillway is opened..
It's simply amazing how you develop your explanations even on your Easter vacations!! Again, for how long is it going to last the "shoofly" conection of the hydro power plant? Thanks and enjoy
If they need to use the Canyon at the end of the upper section if the needed cfs is greater than 100,000, how will the divert the water into this channel?
Jaun, you apologize for using feet as a short cut for cfs. But as you know your feet have volume it's your foot's step that is linear. So, yes, technically wrong but practically speaking you're right. Though I'm not sure how many average feet it would take to fill up a cubic foot ( but then we're probably better off using bushels. )
I like the natural spillway look. I bet if the civic engineers on this project worked together they could make the remaining spillway dove tail in nicely.
James Anderson hi. That subject came up. let me get you up to par somewhat. A few weeks back Jaun reported the need for the investigation results be used by the winning contactor to be sure to address the issue it uncovered. So yeah.
@James Anderson: There is a lot of preliminary work and set up prep to get done before the real repair plan will be ready. There are banking and financial matters to be settled before the real work can start. They have to excavate and area for a new onsite fully functional cement factory. Then they need to purchase or aquire all the cement factory equiptment and convayor belt equiptmentt. It all has to get hauled up there, go threw security, validate the working order on arrival, make sure they have all the pieces of their new erector set, install it, get it tested, validate the new cement at a 3rd party lab; so, they can "Release the New Contrete Factory !!!""KRAKEN""!!! for 24/7 or untill further notice operation. So look for the repair plan to be more fully developed about June-July. Then check on the status of the inspectors for their imput. Oh and watch out because it can all run into itself during this ca.gov/wdr.com process.
Juan, do you know if they will remove the existing concrete on the upper and lower sections of the main spillway?...thus re-doing the entire main spillway.
I still would love to know how the DWR plans to span the newly formed gorge between the upper spillway and the lower spillway. Will they try to fill the gorge? Will they try to bridge the gorge? What is the design concept here?
I will have to figure out which video you mean. The construction gang over here on the Sonoma Coast got in a big discussion on this topic this morning. We love your reporting. Everyone is talking about you!
You really do a great job of explaining things! I'm in Texas but keeping up with the Oroville Dam!
I'm in New Hampshire and agree %100 .
Tonja Ross .I am in Florida and love the dam update.
I'm in Brussels, Belgium and keeping up too! Great job!
Greetings from a faithful viewer in Illinois.
Greetings from Glasgow, Scotland!
Sounds like they are going for some sort of Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) contract for the rebuild. This is where you engage the construction contractor at an early stage in design (60%) and you develop the design to 100% with input from the contractor. They bring practical solutions, innovation, common sense and experience to the table (something that some engineers lack!). It also allows early start of the work as the contractor can start to mobilize to the site, build access roads, lay down areas and establish infrastructure like the concrete batch plant in parallel with finishing off the design.
Thank you for all your hard work Juan
thank you juan from upstate ny. truly captivating tv!
It really shouldn't need to be said but, um; THANKS FOR BEING SANE AND SOBER! You're a refreshing breath of fresh air after wading through the hair-on-fire crowed that seems to take over RUclips and the Press on these issues. Also, good work avoiding the bloody minded arrogance of certain engineers explanations to we poor peasants (enge-splaining or spanner-speak), I got a degree in engineering too and its bloody insufferable having to smile and nod when these nit wits talk like Thurston Howell the third.
+PsychoticusRex
*_Thurston Howell III_* and *_hair-on-fire_* crowd ... *_way, WAY too funny_*
I'm an engineer too. It took Juan to explain it in a way that I could actually understand what's going on.....If you combine the graphs of the water flows on a 150 day period ( it's a long process to get there ) you can see they lost control when they FAILED to lower the lake level before the storm at the end of January. They should have watched the weather channel. ... I just watched drone footage of the new opening on another channel ( wrist slap ) and the terracing now makes a whole lot of sense. Also the spillway looks like it was originally designed to follow the contour of the ground level. Given what I've seen ( and it isn't much ) part of the route was planned around the bedrock as much as possible. People keep saying the cause is the change in slope. I'm only guessing but that change of slope had a lot to do with the rock formation and that the break occurred when the base went from bedrock to soft ground. Core drilling will confirm that. ....That spillway is 4 feet thick concrete, the same as an airport runway. 27 feet of water flowing on it has a lot of kinetic energy but the basic pressure is only about 9 PSI. That's not going to move that spillway.....To include the contractor in the design phase is a good idea. They can help to include cost and TIME savings into the design and you get a better product as a result as well. ( see my comment on time and material on the house ).....By lowering the flow rate they can get the lake to a lower level. That's the throttling Juan referred to in earlier updates.
I'll throw two examples out.......I posted this a week ago. I had to do some electrical renovations. The contractor was humming and hawing at $3,000. He knew he was high, but there were a lot of unknowns. We finally agreed on "time and material" capped at $3,500. I paid just under $2,000. .....Other example. I was at n interview with a company that made the fuel line assembly for the Chrysler minivan in the 1990's. The way Chrysler had designed it, it was going to cost $112.00 EACH. When I was at the interview they had redesigned it with Chrysler's approval to suit their production method. They were selling it for $12.35 and making a profit.......The moral of the story, it pays to involve the people doing the work in the design process.
Value engineering should always be on the table...
Another top class news delivery, cheers Jaun. 👍🏼😊
Thanks Juan. When we next build a Dam, how about using that water to drive Barley-Sugar Twist Tubes. As are now under development for Tidal Energy, The UK Mersey Estuary is one possible location. The "Pipe" is the Turbine. High Performance Ferrite magnets are free of corrosion issues, and cost little more than steel to produce. Magneto Rotors. Each tube joint becomes a generator. To date Metrology is only at small scale.
Thanks for the feedback, Ferrite Magnets are vitreous "Ceramics" so the Iron is not available as a metal. It's a good point, and certainly needs research. Plenty of Junk ends up in the sea, Samples of old submerged Ferrite magnets from the pre 1950's required.
Juan your dedication is laudable but man you are on vacation... the news can wait, enjoy some time off and enjoy life! Hoping you will have a relaxing holiday.
bennett guinn I'll second that. you have certainly earned some time off enjoy your vacation
"business write-off"?
Hi Juan, Thank you for taking the time to keep us up to date, while on your holiday time with your family, great reporting and explanation, twice that of the DWR, have a safe vacation, best wishes from Canada and we are continuing to keep our American friends in our prayer's.
Thanks for another great report Juan!! Don't know where you find the time to do it. Cant wait to see the re-build this summer. Keep up the great reporting!! We will be watching from Kentucky. Best to you and your family!
I appreciate your being a pilot and your attention to correct terminology and clarity. You, sir, are one of the best investigative journalists to come online in a long time. In the old school tradition: "The Facts, man, just the facts." Thanks much.
Another great video of information, thks for the answer about using the river tubes during the power plant discharge, I was wondering about that looking at the plans, Keeping up with whatever info I can hear about the rebuild and running of the Oroville Spillway. Coming to you from Evacuation Area 1A, Oroville, Ca......Great Job......
I love your style of presentation T.J., absolutely refreshing. Thank you to your family for allowing us some of their special time. We know why DWR doesn't use pictorial displays.... it would make too much sense! British say Tur byne, America says it both ways-means the same thing according to engineers or is that engyneers. Great presence of mind to shield mic in wind, loud-n-clear Cap'n. Shows your a heads up guy. cya ..too funny!
Enjoy your vacation Juan & family.. Drove through the Monterey Peninsula on a family vacation to C.A. as a teen and remember how beautiful it was & aquarium is one of the best in the world, best wishes..
Juan, I am not sure how I came across your first video I saw, but I am hooked. Thanks fof your great reports!
That San Luis Reservoir lookout is always super windy!! ... Good to see the water level back up :)
Your the best Juan !! Thank you for all the reports.
Juan, thanks to you and your family for taking the time during your family vacation to bring us the updates!
Thank you for doing that you are a fine reporter who has well earned our respect!
You made this info so much clearer than listen in at the press briefing.
I want to give my Thank You as well for all the info, I cant make it to their meetings but I have hope to see it right here on the blocinario channel. Thanks again👍😀
Another great report Juan. Thanks. I am looking forward to the next few months. Hope your interest & reports continue. Watching from Australia.
Thanks so much for all your conscientious work to keep us Interested Parties (like the whole State of CA and beyond) updated, especially those of us living downstream in NorCal!
god bless you sir. the best reporting in years. the networks have to be ashamed of themselves. almost makes me cry.
thanks for your work!
WOW! People from all over the place glued to the best news on the Orville Resivour Dam. ORD
Appreciate the updates, even while on you're vac'n! 👍😎 "It's gonna be a doozy!" is right, given all that's happened so far. Look forward to what you find out at the first community outreach meeting later this month. Thx again JB!
Hello from PA and keep the great coverage and videos coming. Your research into the subject matter and video composition are a exquisite.
Juan, as a fellow commercial aviator, I somehow missed all your previous videos about aviation. I'm now on board. This Oroville dam reporting is fantastic. Positive rate---gear up!
Juan, that new mic is terrific given the Central Valley winds you had to holler into.
You brought to mind John Cameron Swayze and Timex.
Thanks for the update.
You mean Juan Cameron Swayze
Ah Ha!
Said the blind man who picked up his hammer and saw.
Keep up the good work, I enjoy hearing you keeping us up to date on this crisis. You're awesome Juan.
Phoenix, AZ. Haven't missed a vid...great work! Thank you!
I'm no audiophile, but rather than shielding the mic, maybe concentrate more on diverting your voice into the mic. Great work BTW. Through all this work that is going to happen over the summer, it would be nice if they would let someone set up a camera and capture a time lapse of the work being completed.
been following your reports for awhile just subscribed. love the unbiased way you report your the only one i watch from michigan to get these reports.keep up the good work.
Welcome Montery! Nice to have you out here (huge fan of the channel)! If you end up at any of the brewery's or pubs let me know, I'll gladly buy you a beer.
thanks Juan, the only source one needs to visit is this channel they get them full scope of the situation
There is a lot of misinformation out there, but you have all the important facts and up to date information. Great job everyday.
Excellent update - thank you.
I did watch the press briefing, but
am more pleased with your overview and integration.
Tell your family THANKS from us for sharing you on their 'family' vacation!
Juan. Thanks So Much For Your Time and Efforts!
Alaska
Thanks for the update Juan. Much appreciated.
I have been watching all your videos since the story broke. Great reporting. My question is.... if they are so concerned with the 865 level, then why did they ever let it go about 865 back in February? I do realize that the spillway was open and it was still flowing over the emergency spillway but why were they not letting it out rapidly as it inched over 865 back then in Feb?
Connor Ward fear of the unknowns. ..they were afraid of loosing the WHOLE spillway if they cranked it up too much.
At the time they thought the emergency spillway would function as designed, and wouldn't encounter massive head cutting towards the emergency spillway foundation.
Thank you and Michael Onines for your replies.
The emergency spillway was used because they lost control of all other means to reduce reservoir levels.
The severe erosion that initially occurred when the main spillway was damaged raised serious and legitimate concerns about continued erosion compromising the rest of the upper spillway and supporting base structure around that part of the dam, and flow was drastically reduced through the main spillway.
The erosion also caused the Hyatt power plant to be taken offline to protect it, further reducing the controlled outflow available.
When was the last winter they had to use the spillway? It has been years of drought.
Was the soil under the spillway so dried out it shrunk and generated voids under the slab that could have caused structural issues for it? They did not build on bedrock as the pictures show.
According to a DWR presser, despite the work on the Oroville spillwa and lower allocation from the reservoir, they'll still be able to deliver an 85% overall allocation to southern customers due to the extensive snow pack.
Love the updates from Northern VA! I know you are a busy man, but I am a huge aviation enthusiast and would love to see some cockpit footage of your day job! Keep up the great work.
Thanks for the update. Interesting, I'm retired but I have a construction background. I'm following along from Arkansas.
....13
Thank you for explaining it all. If you get the chance to go to one of those community meetings will you find out when or if they are going to put in an emergency siren system. I haven't heard anything about it. Thanks again for taking time out of your family vacation to bring us these updates.
San Louis looks pretty full! Can you fly over Shasta? The Oroville spillway has been open for about 12 hours, and the water level elevation is 865.5, so it is a slow process, (which I suspect may have to be sped up next week to outpace the coming rain/snowmelt enhanced inflows.) The press conference had me baffled about the closure of Hyatt - thanks for the explanation. Still baffled about scheduling non-emergency maintenance work during the critical flood season, but not the explanation! The CEI designation discussion was also a bit baffling. Bill made it sound as though the forensic report was never going to be closed to the public, and wasn't sure how we all had that idea. I'm pleased that several CA legislators spoke up on behalf of their constituents and strongly demanded that the information be accessible to all. We will find out soon. I'm anxious to find out about the soundness of the bedrock for both spill areas due to the high degree of weathering. I'm also concerned about the timing of the two-day on site forensic team - it rained most of the time while they were inspecting the dam and spillway - probably not the best time to find leaks. I hope they plan a return trip. This was another great report from a true celebrity in the world of California Hydrological Disasters. Thanks Juan!
Juan thank you. You are doing a great job. Keep up the great work!!!!!
Thank you for this update! Your understanding is perfect! Love the BREITLING hat! Want to see the watch! 🐰🐰 Happy Easter! ✈️
Tterry Hyde I'm too cheap, just got the hst!...lol
Thanks for the update Juan. I have to blow my own horn for calling this spill two videos back. 35,000 CFS and a long spill! There is certainly a ton that can be done to prep for the work.
So far, no mention of anchoring piles into bedrock, but hopefully it will become part of the plan. As opposed to just filling the hole with concrete and building over top, piling into bedrock would be more stable and probably faster. This approach is also well suited to a staged approach since all the piles could be placed and they can build the spillway in sections. In a worst case, if they ran out of time they could still spill around the piles without any risk of damage.
This approach is basically like building an elevated highway on a slant. Yes, compressed concrete underneath, right up to the base of the spillway, but since it is sitting on piles it will not be compromised by settling or erosion.
Should this approach be taken, it may be possible to start sinking pilings after this spill and before the next.
Juan, thanks for another brief. I think the root cause of this failure will come down to the destructive power of cavitation. It happened on the left spillway at Lake Powell in the 1980s. You can watch a RUclips video about that incident, too! The solution is simple engineering modifications to the new construction. Keep up the good work, sir!
Thanks, Juan! Translation deeply appreciated!
This site appears to be one of the early sentinel earthworks which will be called upon to respond to an increasingly energetic hydrologic cycle as global temperature rises. Here in South Florida our experiences are rather slow and plodding. You guys are facing rather dramatic abrupt failure if the civil institutions can't keep up. We are all watching with hope to learn how to cope in our own communities. Thanks.
One question you may consider at the town meeting is what water storage extremes are being considered by the Department. Could they envisage a needed future design adjustment for 20% , 40%, 60% increase in peak water inflows and cyclic loading extremes to the structure?
Juan knows this is a service, and his input is anticiapted by people from all over the nation. Great Work, Juan.....Capt. B. Bart, Plymouth, Michigan
Another great video, thanks. Also, thanks for keeping politics out of your reporting. The politics for Oroville Damn will get nasty when it is time to pay for the repair.
thanks for your hard work on this
The San Luis reservoir looked like a great place to go for a sail on a fast cat that day!
Hi, i'm from Montréal, Québec Canada and i'm don't missed your vidéo. Keep up your good work :-)
Thank you Juan very interesting information.
There will be plenty of CYA. I am also from Texas. Thanks far all the info.
Thank you Juan for taking time while on vacation...!!! How is the drive around Pacific Grove out to 17 Mile Drive?? Great to see San Luis Reservoir full..!! I used to hunt north of 152 all the way to Mount Hamilton on private ranches.
Very informative and easily explained update, thanks Mate!
Ok, so here is my concern with all this. When the storms started back in December they brought the lake level from 725 feet to 850 feet in just 4 weeks. Then in early February when they shut down the spillway it went from 850 feet to 900 feet in roughly 10 days. If they get another series of storms that bring in a similar quantity of water, they won't be starting from 725, they will be starting from somewhere between 850 and 865. What happens if the spillway construction is at a stage where it cannot accomodate that much flow.
Chuncle Uuck that's where we don't know how high the rest will be when the start work...
I know you said 60% engineering package but all I heard was cha-ching cha-ching. Contractors tend to clean up at that level of client chaos. It will be interesting to see if the contract award calls out any quantities for concrete and steel - I hope those metrics are public and tracked publicly. Great job dude - keep it up!
Wow, Juan, we are witnesses to the unfolding of a monumental happening. I was in the Oroville Earthquake. It was the last straw and I moved away. But I certainly appreciate your honest and informative videos.
Great job. Maybe next you can slip over to Washington DC and explain to us what's going on over there. lol
haa! "not today, tomorrow don't look good either"
Yes great job, I'm here in Ann Arbor, MI.
Another very good report Juan... yes the DWR is 100% in CYA mode.... Kevin Dossey is the lead engineer and he has covered his butt by saying he followed the protocall... but the reality is any competent engineer would have realized a potential risk and would have investigated the subsurface conditions when they were patching cracks and saw water seeping through the backside of the slab... no different than if they saw water coming through the dam... would they just ignore it? If these guys were maintaining a bridge like the Golden Gate it would have fallen into the bay and their excuse would have been that they were following the rules... IMO passing the buck is not acceptable...
Did DWR discuss the target elevation they want for the reservoir for the start of or during construction? Still wondering if their aim is to fill Oroville or close to it or just keep it down below a certain level no matter how much runoff they get. I have a forecast model of elevation and the MSW plan now seems to keep it tracking to full or near full.
Great windy news footage... Love it! And you didn't even lose your hat.
Thanks Juan!
Thank you for what you do, even more so for the way you do it. I am better informed that my sister that lives near Placerville.
I am curious as to why you haven't mentioned the "evidence" of explosives, and the fact that that it is the "ONLY" way for the spillway to have failed. lol I can't believe some of the stuff I have read/watched.
I used to be a power dispatcher and I'm starting to feel right at home here. The reservoir is full, the spillway is broken and the only other means of discharging water is through the power plant so lets take half of it out of service.
No kiddin!
howdy from Sacramento. well done report. glad to see that was a breitling hat and not a breitbart one.
Im interested. Keep up the awesome info coming. Pilots are so smart.
The upper spillway is the ace. It is what saved the whole situation. It wouldn't be prudent to demolish and rebuild any of the upper spillway until the emergency spillway renovation is complete. For example, should a 100 year or 500 year rainstorm event hit this summer.
On the off chance another hole developed like last time, they would shut it off and patch the hole before it expanded. In their presentation a week ago they said remove and replace, or, repair.
Even though I think it would work with a repair for another 50 years, in terms of public safety perception, they will have to rebuild it entirely and get the money from their water customers. Will that happen this summer? We'll see.
Cause. Reaction. Solution. 60% is a good start to contract out. I'm sure they are all on 'tender hooks' to do it right having learned what they have so far. Adding to that the clock tick-tocking away the valuable time required to get the job done. Thanks.
You certainly do good work. keep it up.
thanks again for an informative update. How can I donate?
Thanks!...www.paypal.me/juanbrowne
Thanks again for your persistent coverage here. I do have a question that I hope you will eventually answer: In the diagram of the Hyatt Power Plant, the turbines each have a penstock. Turbines number 1,3, and 5 have green arrows by them, The even numbered turbines each have two-way arrows. Can you figure out why, and what it signifies?
Dave in St. Louis, Mo.
By the way, we here in Missouri have also had our own Electric generating reservoir disaster. You can Google Taum Sauk Mountain disaster and find out about that.
soularddave2 : 3 of the turbines can be operated in reverse as pumps to pump water back into the reservoir. The idea is that (if the reservoir water level is low enough to allow) water can be pumped up using cheap electricity and drawn down later at peak electricity demand for a quick, responsive bit of add generation capacity. It's like a potential energy battery.
I believe that the even numbered turbines can be reversed to be pumps to move water up to the reservoir, during hours when electrical demand is low. At hours of peak demand, the water comes back down to generate electricity.
soularddave2 yes, generators vs generator/pumps
So why are water resources not talking about the seepage of the dam, which is well know to cause failure??
When will we see videos of the opened spill way? Thanks
rocco muriale in a day or two...
from New Brunswick Canada WOW!
Can you explain how the inlet would scour if the lake level got to low. Have any links or diagrams to help me visualize how that would happen and what that means? Thanks!
Discussed in previous updates, basically it tears up the inlet to the spillway. The inlet is not made of concrete.
I have a new update coming soon further explaining this.
well since you commented that the floor of that spillway was just laying there, it flatly was only a matter of time before a major fail..because that is a carpet of concrete sections with a rebar mat so every time they spilled and got that pressure wave rolling that carpet and flexing that rebar well who knows how long the rebar at that bend over spot where it braced against the down slope had been flex fractured, and max flow ripped that whole panel off and it was all over. and they want to do concrete again ..
throw on the total dehydration of the land even the rock dried out and shrank..stresses always get expressed somewhere.
juan...as I watched Bill Coyle speak at his latest briefing...I would agree with your second point regarding 60 per cent. Sounded like the contractor would start with a 60% design concept of the spillway. Coyle made it sound like the last 40% had not been quite agreed upon by all involved.
juan the readeau river is flowing a lot faster though smiths falls ontarion canada the it had in the last 2 years i lived in smiths falls
Thanks for the power plant explanation, helps! We love you, come visit Diclosure Media Chat room any time, they loved your visit! Thanks for all you do!
It's good to see they added more shotcrete but wondering why it was such a dismal effort of only a few guys working and just one of them placing it... ? they should have had 3-5 just blasting shotcrete all over that left hillside.. all that brown color rock will erode if it is not protected. IMO addressing and preventing any further erosion under the slab is critical.. if they start to loose ground it's going to be a real mess... Look at the muddy water coming from that left side as the spillway is opened..
thanks Juan
It's simply amazing how you develop your explanations even on your Easter vacations!! Again, for how long is it going to last the "shoofly" conection of the hydro power plant? Thanks and enjoy
By the way, I don't know how do you call it shoe fly or shoo fly, I am sorry for that but I understand the whole idea.
Thank-you Juan, I think I can see the road ahead......I think.
If they need to use the Canyon at the end of the upper section if the needed cfs is greater than 100,000, how will the divert the water into this channel?
Jaun, you apologize for using feet as a short cut for cfs. But as you know your feet have volume it's your foot's step that is linear. So, yes, technically wrong but practically speaking you're right. Though I'm not sure how many average feet it would take to fill up a cubic foot ( but then we're probably better off using bushels. )
I like the natural spillway look. I bet if the civic engineers on this project worked together they could make the remaining spillway dove tail in nicely.
Wouldn't it make a bit more sense to wait for the final report on the root cause of this failure before moving forward with a repair plan?
Thanks Steve, I didn't start following this till well after it started and am not from the area, just trying to understand the politics behind it all.
James Anderson hi. That subject came up. let me get you up to par somewhat. A few weeks back Jaun reported the need for the investigation results be used by the winning contactor to be sure to address the issue it uncovered. So
yeah.
@James Anderson: There is a lot of preliminary work and set up prep to get done before the real repair plan will be ready. There are banking and financial matters to be settled before the real work can start. They have to excavate and area for a new onsite fully functional cement factory. Then they need to purchase or aquire all the cement factory equiptment and convayor belt equiptmentt. It all has to get hauled up there, go threw security, validate the working order on arrival, make sure they have all the pieces of their new erector set, install it, get it tested, validate the new cement at a 3rd party lab; so, they can "Release the New Contrete Factory !!!""KRAKEN""!!! for 24/7 or untill further notice operation. So look for the repair plan to be more fully developed about June-July. Then check on the status of the inspectors for their imput. Oh and watch out because it can all run into itself during this ca.gov/wdr.com process.
Given the recent increase in awareness on the part of the general public I'm sure those DWR officials are involved in some serious CYA moves.
Juan, do you know if they will remove the existing concrete on the upper and lower sections of the main spillway?...thus re-doing the entire main spillway.
I still would love to know how the DWR plans to span the newly formed gorge between the upper spillway and the lower spillway. Will they try to fill the gorge? Will they try to bridge the gorge? What is the design concept here?
see the previous update...
I will have to figure out which video you mean. The construction gang over here on the Sonoma Coast got in a big discussion on this topic this morning. We love your reporting. Everyone is talking about you!