Do you fold AA? Also, check out the Advanced Suited Connector strategy that I have been using to CRUSH my opponents lately: ruclips.net/video/ATGKbIIUaFQ/видео.html
It's easy to say afterwards that folding was the right play, but when you're in the middle of the game and you suddenly wake up with American Airlines in a 3bet pot, it takes tremendous discipline to fold AA and not make that spewy call. Well played.
It takes a special type of fish to butcher a set like that when you're UTG and the preflop 3 bettor got raised by the cold caller. UTG should have gotten the button's stack. In a 3 bet pot and low aggression factors there are zero combos of JT there, so there are no draws. I'm just in amazement at how badly UTG played that.
If UTG just flats the flop raise instead of jamming what do we do? I’m guessing hero calls the flop raise since at that point we’re getting an absurdly good price. But what’s the plan on the turn/river?
I have paid buku $$$$ in losses to learn this lesson the hard way. When you 3-bet pre, c-bet flop and get raised you are almost always behind in lower stakes. If you don't have additional outs to the nuts, FOLD.
Nathan!-You're Totally-Right!-Fold Them-Pocket Rockets!&Save Some Money!-When You're Matching-Up!-To The Board!-Raymond "Mike" Hong!&(Nathan!-I'm Learning From You!-Before Another Reno, Nevada Trip-Comes!-Sometime-In The Near Future!-I Hope!-Mike!)😎👍!!!!!!!!!
AA is just a drawing hand, don't get too attached to it.. ;) Especially in multiway pots... And this particular situation was an easy fold and the hero should congratulate himself for losing so little...
I just realized that I called the guy in the UTG (under the gun) seat the big blind throughout this entire video I think haha. My apologies for any confusion!
Well played hand what else is there to say? The key thing here is the board texture, where they can not have a worse overpair, because what are we actually even getting value from then? The 1/3 pot sized C-bet was perfect and gave us all the information, we needed to get away.
Based on the action i think the most realistic scenario is that villain22 has QQ and the other one probably AK or KQ. KK, 44 or KQ are another possibilities for villain22 depending on how low his F3B stat is and his 4bet%. Having said that it's also important to consider what is the sample size for both villains and how often each one of them raises\check raises the flop. Sometimes it happens that if the sample size is like below 200 or 300 hands a player can have a low AF of 1 but decides to semi-bluff raise the flop like just one-time crazy move in multipot pot OOP with JTs or AK for the following reasons: 1. it looks so strong in multipot 2. he thinks the initial raiser's CBET is way too weak and also might think he has a lot of equity when called 3. he believes the third opp. is making a goofy mini-raise and expects to push him out of the pot. 4. he looses for long time and had never raised a single pot, so he's close to tilt and wants to fight back Off course there's a lot of speculation and guessing here but it really happens from time to time! Also I've seen multiple occassions when a reg villain after 100-150 hands has AF
At the risk of sounding like a fish myself, why don't we think villain is shoving with top pair KJ or something like that? I understand the stats factor and maybe I haven't played enough cash games (I play 95% tourneys) but it seems that AK or K10+ may shove at these stakes. Thoughts?
Thanks, Nathan! I'm amazed how easily he folded his AA in response to such sudden antics. It seems to me that his experience is already making itself felt. :D However, it is clear that there are 15 (18) combos (3KK + 3QQ + 9KQ (+ 3 x 44)) that beat the hero's Aces, the difficulty is to BELIEVE + to CONVINCE oneself that the enemies are REALLY having them. :) By the way. You wrote that the first 2 years you played without statistics. How much time did it take from you to make you get used making tough folds with premium hands after this kind of move? Mainly against jerks (according to what they show on showdowns) who tend to bluff you with any they trash with which they decide not to give up & bully you out of the pot because they (as I think they think ;)) are not weak to do so. I ask this because I'm playing on NL2 at PartyPoker. No stats, I just watch my enemies, set labels and write notes. Hardcore level. :) The thing is (feels like) that in 75%+ of the time they show 2 pair+ which are built from "lucky" hands like 83o, lol, against me, and everything lower against fish. Perhaps, that I am a kind of fish who negates to fold hands which beat 50-80% of maniacs' ranges and still gets run into coolers? What do you think? Because if I don't continue, they (leveling?) will exploit me unless they are completely eye-less.
Good analysis but I don't agree that these kind of opponents "never mess around". After all, villain 19 raised the flop and ended up folding, which means he didn't have the KQ or the set but still minraising it up there. And I've seen also passive tight regs going crazy with AK in a spot like this, especially villain 22 who plays 21/13 which is a bit on the looser side, and AK is a hand that we beat. With still two aces and three kings in the deck there are much more combinations of AK (6) than KK (3), so I'm not sure that I could make the hero fold here. It's a very tricky spot where I would probably have c-bet bigger to avoid villain 19 messing around on the button, but I agree that it also means we are in a terrible situation facing the all-in shove with only 3 bucks left to put in a 10 dollar pot which basically means that we are committed to it. Secondly, I agree also what you said about having middle pairs (JJ-88) in the blinds, hands that are usually to good to fold and not good enough to raise with. What's the best way of playing them from these positions?
Hey Left, middle pairs are really tricky hands to play from any position. It is really gonna depend on who else is at your table and how the preflop action goes.
@@BlackRain79Poker True. The preflop action is usually not the biggest problem because you can develop a strategy for that depending on position and opponent, but postflop there is often a situation where I have for example JJ on a low 632 rainbow board and I pretty soon realize that villain has an overpair too. In those cases it's difficult to find out if it's the lower (77-TT) or the higher overpair, and as a result of that it's also difficult to decide to play the hand passively or aggressively. Same goes for hands like AJ and AT on a dry ace-high board. Decent hands but usually not good enough to raise with, or to call three streets. I play 10NL full ring.
I dont think, Villain 19 was "messing around" as in bluffing with that mini-raise. I think, he probably had AK and thought, his hand was good, because Hero went so small. But when he then got check-jammed on, he reevaluated and got away. As for Villain 22, I guess, he could possibly be overplaying AK as well. But the issue is, its unlikely, they both have AK. One guy can have 6 combos of AK, but then the other can only have 2 combos. And if Villain 22 is bad enough to overplay AK like this, then he is also bad enough to call a 3-bet out of position with KQ (9 combos) and 44 (3 combos), or he could have QQ (3 combos), which is the most reasonable hand given his line. So while its not an easy fold to make, I think, it was a good one. I dont think, a bad reg is mini-raising us on the flop with a bluff hand in a 3-bet pot (fish might do that though), and I also dont think, another bad reg is turning his JJ or TT into a massive bluff trying to get two people with stupidly strong ranges to fold.
Yep, UTG just has KQ or a set (actually he probably could have all of them, not always 4-betting KK and maybe open/calling 44). Literally never saw a reg doing this with anything worse. And it's not like we're sitting with our best hand - we can easily get it in with QQ/KK and fold everything else.
This is such a gross spot. I like the pre-flop 3 bet. I really like the size as well. I even think you could go bigger. say in the .60-.70 range. My goal with premium hands pre flop is to set up easy post flop stack offs. I want an SPR as small as possible so i can get it in post flop with two pot size bets at worst. At these stakes, there are a lot of people bad enough to do it. Post flop. I like the fact that were in a pot that is SPR < 3. This is usually (key word) a spot where I'm looking to stack off. However, the nature of our opponents and the flop texture make this a little less rosy. I wouldn't advocate making a habit of folding AA in 3 bet pots because there are too many players who will over value TP or 2nd par good kicker, or just get stubborn with JJ, but this might be a good spot to abort mission. The only scenario I can come up with where hero is winning is Button went after our 1/3 pot bet bc he thought it was weak, and UTG overplayed AK? That about it... and even then it might be imaginative to think button can turn 8-8 in to a bluff
I do not agree with the fold AA the opponent may have pockets or AK or AQ or KK but 80% of the time we should win with pocket AA i will most probably bet bigger not 0.51c the worst scenario will be down with 5$
Hi, guys! Can anyone help me? I set up Poker Tracker 4 last week and everything is OK but my HUD mixs stats and shows stats from full ring tables when I play 6 max. What do I have to do? I play on PokerStars if it makes a difference.
Hey El, I already have a RUclips video explaining how to setup your PokerTracker 4 HUD in 5 minutes or less right here: ruclips.net/video/MZ_m7KL2OME/видео.html
In "edit HUD options", you can select "stats from current cash stakes only", and you can also set other filters like the numbers of players or number of weeks. Its a bit up for debate, if it makes sense to use those filters though. Often we only have a small sample, so it might be better to get all the information, we have, regardless where or when it was picked up.
What is the Hero's stats? You neglect in your analysis that Regs are incapable of exploiting the Hero. Regs many times are thinking players with many notes. More info would be helpful to say the least.
Hey Michael, Reinis did not give me any of his stats. I don't think very many regs at NL5 are going to be exploiting you though. This is especially the case with some of the weaker regs like these two.
Ya I think it was probably KQ as well. I should have mentioned this hand more in my analysis. I expect a strong reg to fold this hand versus a 3-bet preflop. But with weaker regs like this at NL5, they will definitely call with a hand like this.
I think folding here is standard against those player types... Actually I don't understand why people are so crazy with their AA? Its just a hand and if I have the feeling I am beat I fold the hand 😂 what is the problem...
For me it's not the fact that it's Aces, I fold them regularly to a lot of action in smaller pots, but in these massive 3bet pots you notice at the microstakes that even seemingly tight regs just totally lose their mind. Micro stakes players seem to decide that investing 20% of their stack means they're pot committed, or that they deserve to win because they have a good hand like AK or QQ and would rather turn them into a bluff or go crazy than accept that they have to fold. I've seen "tight" players turn their QQ into a total bluff on a AK6 board and triple barrel it so many times that I find it hard to fold top pair in these massive pots now tbh, because there's just so much random bullshit going on in them from people who can't accept when their good preflop hand has been invalidated. I've won far more money from catching these weird plays than I have from losing to a set of kings.
Do you fold AA? Also, check out the Advanced Suited Connector strategy that I have been using to CRUSH my opponents lately: ruclips.net/video/ATGKbIIUaFQ/видео.html
It's easy to say afterwards that folding was the right play, but when you're in the middle of the game and you suddenly wake up with American Airlines in a 3bet pot, it takes tremendous discipline to fold AA and not make that spewy call. Well played.
Meanwhile, hero did fold.
Hey George, great point. Poker is an easy game after the fact :)
It takes a special type of fish to butcher a set like that when you're UTG and the preflop 3 bettor got raised by the cold caller. UTG should have gotten the button's stack. In a 3 bet pot and low aggression factors there are zero combos of JT there, so there are no draws. I'm just in amazement at how badly UTG played that.
Agree! It is penny poker though.
If UTG just flats the flop raise instead of jamming what do we do?
I’m guessing hero calls the flop raise since at that point we’re getting an absurdly good price.
But what’s the plan on the turn/river?
I have paid buku $$$$ in losses to learn this lesson the hard way. When you 3-bet pre, c-bet flop and get raised you are almost always behind in lower stakes. If you don't have additional outs to the nuts, FOLD.
Nathan!-You're Totally-Right!-Fold Them-Pocket Rockets!&Save Some Money!-When You're Matching-Up!-To The Board!-Raymond "Mike" Hong!&(Nathan!-I'm Learning From You!-Before Another Reno, Nevada Trip-Comes!-Sometime-In The Near Future!-I Hope!-Mike!)😎👍!!!!!!!!!
Right on!
AA is just a drawing hand, don't get too attached to it.. ;) Especially in multiway pots... And this particular situation was an easy fold and the hero should congratulate himself for losing so little...
I just realized that I called the guy in the UTG (under the gun) seat the big blind throughout this entire video I think haha. My apologies for any confusion!
Don't usually like to call out specific hand reads, thinking in ranges is better. BUT utg has KQ I'm pretty sure.
Well QQ also makes sense here. Too scared to 4-bet with QQ, then flopped a set.
Hey Nadohs, after I reviewed this hand I agree, I think KQ is very likely. Also has the most combos compared to a hand like QQ or KK.
Well played hand what else is there to say? The key thing here is the board texture, where they can not have a worse overpair, because what are we actually even getting value from then? The 1/3 pot sized C-bet was perfect and gave us all the information, we needed to get away.
I agree, this hand was played perfectly. Good points about the board texture.
Based on the action i think the most realistic scenario is that villain22 has QQ and the other one probably AK or KQ. KK, 44 or KQ are another possibilities for villain22 depending on how low his F3B stat is and his 4bet%.
Having said that it's also important to consider what is the sample size for both villains and how often each one of them raises\check raises the flop. Sometimes it happens that if the sample size is like below 200 or 300 hands a player can have a low AF of 1 but decides to semi-bluff raise the flop like just one-time crazy move in multipot pot OOP with JTs or AK for the following reasons:
1. it looks so strong in multipot
2. he thinks the initial raiser's CBET is way too weak and also might think he has a lot of equity when called
3. he believes the third opp. is making a goofy mini-raise and expects to push him out of the pot.
4. he looses for long time and had never raised a single pot, so he's close to tilt and wants to fight back
Off course there's a lot of speculation and guessing here but it really happens from time to time!
Also I've seen multiple occassions when a reg villain after 100-150 hands has AF
Thanks for your thoughts Alexander, good point about knowing the sample size on both villains!
At the risk of sounding like a fish myself, why don't we think villain is shoving with top pair KJ or something like that? I understand the stats factor and maybe I haven't played enough cash games (I play 95% tourneys) but it seems that AK or K10+ may shove at these stakes. Thoughts?
Thanks, Nathan!
I'm amazed how easily he folded his AA in response to such sudden antics.
It seems to me that his experience is already making itself felt. :D
However, it is clear that there are 15 (18) combos (3KK + 3QQ + 9KQ (+ 3 x 44)) that beat the hero's Aces,
the difficulty is to BELIEVE + to CONVINCE oneself that the enemies are REALLY having them. :)
By the way. You wrote that the first 2 years you played without statistics.
How much time did it take from you to make you get used making tough folds with premium hands after this kind of move?
Mainly against jerks (according to what they show on showdowns) who tend to bluff you with any they trash with which they decide not to give up & bully you out of the pot because they (as I think they think ;)) are not weak to do so.
I ask this because I'm playing on NL2 at PartyPoker.
No stats, I just watch my enemies, set labels and write notes.
Hardcore level. :)
The thing is (feels like) that in 75%+ of the time they show 2 pair+ which are built from "lucky" hands like 83o, lol, against me,
and everything lower against fish.
Perhaps, that I am a kind of fish who negates to fold hands which beat 50-80% of maniacs' ranges and still gets run into coolers?
What do you think?
Because if I don't continue, they (leveling?) will exploit me unless they are completely eye-less.
Thank for watching Vladimir, glad this video helped!
Nice hand and analysis, I would have folded here too! The guy in the big blind has it.
I agree. And I just noticed I called that guy the big blind throughout this video when he is actually UTG! lol
@@BlackRain79Poker Haha I just noticed this too!
Good analysis but I don't agree that these kind of opponents "never mess around". After all, villain 19 raised the flop and ended up folding, which means he didn't have the KQ or the set but still minraising it up there. And I've seen also passive tight regs going crazy with AK in a spot like this, especially villain 22 who plays 21/13 which is a bit on the looser side, and AK is a hand that we beat. With still two aces and three kings in the deck there are much more combinations of AK (6) than KK (3), so I'm not sure that I could make the hero fold here. It's a very tricky spot where I would probably have c-bet bigger to avoid villain 19 messing around on the button, but I agree that it also means we are in a terrible situation facing the all-in shove with only 3 bucks left to put in a 10 dollar pot which basically means that we are committed to it.
Secondly, I agree also what you said about having middle pairs (JJ-88) in the blinds, hands that are usually to good to fold and not good enough to raise with. What's the best way of playing them from these positions?
Hey Left, middle pairs are really tricky hands to play from any position. It is really gonna depend on who else is at your table and how the preflop action goes.
@@BlackRain79Poker True. The preflop action is usually not the biggest problem because you can develop a strategy for that depending on position and opponent, but postflop there is often a situation where I have for example JJ on a low 632 rainbow board and I pretty soon realize that villain has an overpair too. In those cases it's difficult to find out if it's the lower (77-TT) or the higher overpair, and as a result of that it's also difficult to decide to play the hand passively or aggressively. Same goes for hands like AJ and AT on a dry ace-high board. Decent hands but usually not good enough to raise with, or to call three streets. I play 10NL full ring.
I dont think, Villain 19 was "messing around" as in bluffing with that mini-raise. I think, he probably had AK and thought, his hand was good, because Hero went so small. But when he then got check-jammed on, he reevaluated and got away. As for Villain 22, I guess, he could possibly be overplaying AK as well.
But the issue is, its unlikely, they both have AK. One guy can have 6 combos of AK, but then the other can only have 2 combos. And if Villain 22 is bad enough to overplay AK like this, then he is also bad enough to call a 3-bet out of position with KQ (9 combos) and 44 (3 combos), or he could have QQ (3 combos), which is the most reasonable hand given his line.
So while its not an easy fold to make, I think, it was a good one. I dont think, a bad reg is mini-raising us on the flop with a bluff hand in a 3-bet pot (fish might do that though), and I also dont think, another bad reg is turning his JJ or TT into a massive bluff trying to get two people with stupidly strong ranges to fold.
Great Fold by hero, it hurts with bullets, but great fold
Yep, UTG just has KQ or a set (actually he probably could have all of them, not always 4-betting KK and maybe open/calling 44).
Literally never saw a reg doing this with anything worse. And it's not like we're sitting with our best hand - we can easily get it in with QQ/KK and fold everything else.
I agree, it's so rare that they show up with something we beat here that at these stakes it actually becomes a pretty easy fold.
i would have to get it in with AA on that flop
This is such a gross spot. I like the pre-flop 3 bet. I really like the size as well. I even think you could go bigger. say in the .60-.70 range. My goal with premium hands pre flop is to set up easy post flop stack offs. I want an SPR as small as possible so i can get it in post flop with two pot size bets at worst. At these stakes, there are a lot of people bad enough to do it.
Post flop. I like the fact that were in a pot that is SPR < 3. This is usually (key word) a spot where I'm looking to stack off. However, the nature of our opponents and the flop texture make this a little less rosy. I wouldn't advocate making a habit of folding AA in 3 bet pots because there are too many players who will over value TP or 2nd par good kicker, or just get stubborn with JJ, but this might be a good spot to abort mission.
The only scenario I can come up with where hero is winning is Button went after our 1/3 pot bet bc he thought it was weak, and UTG overplayed AK? That about it... and even then it might be imaginative to think button can turn 8-8 in to a bluff
Thanks for your thoughts Dale, I agree this is a gross spot no matter how you cut it! But I think the right decision was made.
@@BlackRain79Poker I think so too. Hero isnt' winning often enough
I do not agree with the fold AA the opponent may have pockets or AK or AQ or KK but 80% of the time we should win with pocket AA i will most probably bet bigger not 0.51c the worst scenario will be down with 5$
Thanks for your thoughts Kiril!
Hi, guys! Can anyone help me? I set up Poker Tracker 4 last week and everything is OK but my HUD mixs stats and shows stats from full ring tables when I play 6 max. What do I have to do? I play on PokerStars if it makes a difference.
Hey El,
I already have a RUclips video explaining how to setup your PokerTracker 4 HUD in 5 minutes or less right here: ruclips.net/video/MZ_m7KL2OME/видео.html
@@BlackRain79Poker yeah I know it and I used your video to setup PT4 like an instruction but unfortunately something wrong and stats are mixed :(
In "edit HUD options", you can select "stats from current cash stakes only", and you can also set other filters like the numbers of players or number of weeks. Its a bit up for debate, if it makes sense to use those filters though. Often we only have a small sample, so it might be better to get all the information, we have, regardless where or when it was picked up.
@@fundiver198 thank you a lot!!
What is the Hero's stats? You neglect in your analysis that Regs are incapable of exploiting the Hero. Regs many times are thinking players with many notes. More info would be helpful to say the least.
Hey Michael, Reinis did not give me any of his stats. I don't think very many regs at NL5 are going to be exploiting you though. This is especially the case with some of the weaker regs like these two.
He could have AK and be value owning himself.
It was KQ, these bad players are predictable at these stakes.
Perhaps,but the button cold caller min raises with what;
Ya I think it was probably KQ as well. I should have mentioned this hand more in my analysis. I expect a strong reg to fold this hand versus a 3-bet preflop. But with weaker regs like this at NL5, they will definitely call with a hand like this.
@@BlackRain79Poker if his exploit is to call with dominated combos,our exploit should be to fold and never pay them
dimitrismaster Jacks or lower at best, he didn’t know what he was doing (fish).
@@timpayne1057 that or some JT i guess..
I think folding here is standard against those player types... Actually I don't understand why people are so crazy with their AA? Its just a hand and if I have the feeling I am beat I fold the hand 😂 what is the problem...
For me it's not the fact that it's Aces, I fold them regularly to a lot of action in smaller pots, but in these massive 3bet pots you notice at the microstakes that even seemingly tight regs just totally lose their mind. Micro stakes players seem to decide that investing 20% of their stack means they're pot committed, or that they deserve to win because they have a good hand like AK or QQ and would rather turn them into a bluff or go crazy than accept that they have to fold. I've seen "tight" players turn their QQ into a total bluff on a AK6 board and triple barrel it so many times that I find it hard to fold top pair in these massive pots now tbh, because there's just so much random bullshit going on in them from people who can't accept when their good preflop hand has been invalidated.
I've won far more money from catching these weird plays than I have from losing to a set of kings.