Henrik Zeberg - Market Crash Will Be Worse Than 1929!
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- Опубликовано: 3 июн 2024
- Henrik Zeberg of The Zeberg Report, gives his views on what will be a very volatile year with record highs on the S&P followed by a market crash worse than 1929!
The Zeberg Report www.thezebergreport.com/affil...
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:50 Why were you so bullish in 2023?
03:43 How do you get a target of 6100?
05:17 Business indicators he follows
06:37 Timeline on 6100 target?
07:52 What's the catalyst?
12:12 USD Index
12:56 Will Fed cut?
15:48 Summarizing Henrik's call
16:46 USD and Gold
21:19 Central Banks and Gold
22:53 Target price for oil
24:36 How are you positioning?
26:15 Where is bitcoin going?
28:05 Don't get married to a trade
29:40 What could prove your thesis wrong?
38:30 Conclusion
Waiver & Disclaimer
If you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following; This webinar is provided for information purposes only. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. All webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of January the 4th 2024, the date of this webinar/interview, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes on. Bloor Street Capital was paid a fee for this Interview.
Check out my new interview on China, Taiwan and Apple and Nvidia and the possible risk to the global markets ruclips.net/video/mxCqvnua_JE/видео.html
Although the companies in my portfolio are solid, last year was a loss. I experienced a 35% decline in overall $360k portfolio at the height. thus investing makes me anxious . I'm uncertain if I should sell everything and wait.
Refrain from selling impulsively in an attempt to time the market bottom. Such actions can resemble a gamble, compounded by potential tax consequences that may catch you off guard. Stay grounded, focus on the long-term perspective, and make decisions with a thoughtful approach.
Personally, I would say have a mentor. Not sure where you will get an experienced one, but if your knowledge of the market is limited, it seems like a good place to start
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Sharon Ann Meny is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I just googled her now and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
Crash! Inflation! Recession! It’s getting depressing. I have about $100k in emergency fund and I have been seeing good news about the stock market and would like to gain from that since I can’t let my savings be corroded by inflation. What stocks should I into as a newbie to safely grow my money.
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie its advisable you work with an investment advisor to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
Apt!! I was self managing but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary financial advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $620k portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 30%.
If you don't mind, how can I reach this advisrr? My retirement portfolio isnt doing greatly.
Vivian Carol Gioia is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find her handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
I'm not kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it Investing is a long-term game, so focus on the long run.
I can’t focus on the long run when I should be retiring in 3years, you see I’ve got good companies in my portfolio and a good amount invested, but my profit has been stalling, does it mean this recession/unstable market doesn’t provide any calculated risk opportunities to make profit?
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue wetting profit especially in a down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market experts
You are right! I’ve diversified my 350K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $730k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
I just started a few months back, I'm going for long term, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it, who’s this advisor you work with?
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
Rate cuts commence in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.
The financial market is a reliable choice. Diversify your portfolio with I-bonds, stocks (ETFs, REITs, dividend-paying stocks), and bitcoin. Given your budget, I recommend hiring a fiduciary to ensure you receive professional insights for a fee
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
Impressive can you share more info?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’CAROL VIVIAN CONSTABLE” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Just buy and invest in Gold or other reliable stock , the government has failed us and we cant keep living like this.
Yes, gold is a great investment and a good bet against the devaluating dollar, been holding some for awhile now, I’m grateful my adviser’s moment by moment changes in the market are lightening quick, cos who know how much losses I would’ve had by now.
I envy you, I’m still trying to recover from losses I incurred in 2021/2022, who is this investment adviser you work with, I’m intrigued and I could use some quality guidance
I really don't like making such recommendations, because everybody's situation is unique. But there are many freelance advisors you could check out. We have been working with Tenley Megan Amerson, and she's really, really good. If she meets your discretion, then you could go ahead with her. I endorse her.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favourable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience since the 08' crash.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
My CFA ’Melissa Maureen Ward’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find her handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
I'm considering a review of my $1million portfolio allocations, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. I'm eyeing some high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Crypto and emerging markets seem intriguing. Anyone else exploring these?
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. Patience and a long-term perspective are key. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1M in returns on investments.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
She goes by ’Marisol Cordova’. I choose to delegate my excesses to her because of her great expertise. I suggest you look her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Well the latest CPI report reinforced a potential end to the interest-rate hikes that have hurt growth for over the past year, making a soft landing scenario more likely for the US economy. Recently sold 30% of my $500k portfolio comprising of plummeting stocks, quite devastating!
In my books not your fault, the stock market seems to be more of a casino for gamblers now than a place for investors. Its your duty to properly research, buying now does not guarantee a rebound
Quite true! You don't necessarily need to be a flawless investor; all you need to do is seek advice from an expert. I began investing in 2020 and pulled a profit of roughly $900k that same year despite having no prior investment knowledge.
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Evelyn Alicia Schoenholtz' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Apparently people seem to forget about the bankruptcies report we had the most companies go out of business last year more than any other time in history
The Titanic Sank in 2 hours! The movie took longer than the actually sinking!
Thanks for the comment Joseph and for taking the time to view our content! Was it really 2 hours? Wow
Great discussion and theory! Thank you!
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content. Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
Henrik has called this quite well to date, receiving much derision in the process. Well done!
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a coach or other professional for advice.
Yes, I have been in touch with a coach ever since the outbreak. Today, investing in hot stocks is quite easy; the difficult part is deciding when to buy and sell. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my adviser chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
my 401k growth has been stagnant since the 2022. I wouldn't mind consulting the advisor who guides you, I really want to grow my retirement fund since I could retire in 2 years.
'Vivian Carol Gioia' covers things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, going over tax benefits, ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk. many things like that. Just take a look at her full name on the internet. She is well known so it shouldn't be hard to find he
'Vivian Carol Gioia' covers things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, going over tax benefits, ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk. many things like that. Just take a look at her full name on the internet. She is well known so it shouldn't be hard to find he
I find it very reinvigorating with someone who is such a firm beliver in his theory that he strggles really hard coming up with a scenario where he is wrong.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes, that was a great question but not the best answer. Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
@@BloorStreetCapital i learn all from martin armstrong , he teach me to undestand all . its a gift !
Henrik I have been following quite some time and this guy is genius and spot on!
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and taking the time to view our content! We will get him back soon.
Have been following since 1 year. He's the best
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Technically the market today is much more overvalued than the summer of '29. It's so overvalued today it makes the summer of 1929 look like the buying opportunity of the century. The U.S. stock market is the last ponzi that hasn't yet imploded other than Bitcoin. The Chinese real estate ponzi finally imploded.
It's Jimmy Connor from @BloorStreetCapital, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! The level of speculation in the last few years is insane from cryptos to NFTs to SPACs to AI. Time will tell!
When a currency dies, the asset prices go to the moon. It's the result of the currency losing purchasing power. See the Argentina stock market.
Somewhat doubtful that the market / crypto will go to crazy level...big names apple and tsla, fdx, etc looking very weak lately. If anything the upcoming earnings season will bring many of these stocks back down to earth from the recent run. BTC will not go beyond 50k after ETF gets approved and will not break 100k by year end.
THE STOCK MARKET IS BEING PROPPED UP BY THE LEGACY FINANCE CRIMINALS!! Probably by the BIS
Bingo
Interesting theory about the blow off top.. And I agree that Leading economic indicators have been going down for over a year..
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! It will be interesting to see if Henrik is correct come June.
spot on so far
Great video ❤
Thank you
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
Of all the subscriptions I have, Henrik's Zeberg Report is the only one I ever made any money on. He is really gifted, explains, shows charts, and answers your questions . I love his Sunday webinars. I never miss them.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! We are also fans of his webinars!
Could you advise where i can view Henriks Sunday webinars. thanks
What a joke.
Really?! So you believe his calls about S&P reaching 6,100 (!!!), oil crashing to $10 and gold crashing to $1200 in next few months?!
Henrik knows a lot, I've been learning a lot since I joined the Zeberg Report.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! We will get him back!
Henrik has an interesting view on the Gold prices. A perspective I never would have thought.
Henrik 🎉 Outstanding analysis 🧐
Thanks for the comment Jack and thanks for taking the time to view our content!
I’m so sick of these prognosticators. Just preserve your capital and practice risk-management.
Thanks for the comment Kevin and for taking the time to view our content! Very wise words! Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
Preserve your capital where? Its important to look at things like this so we can practice risk management. We weigh our variables.
If you feel that way, why would you watch this?
Besides what could happen in the red sea, the next issue that could reverse the market is to have a big player acknowledge that they have an issue monetizing the AI and that lambda customers are not ready to pay. Let s not forget that most companies have just started finally having a website, so AI is a long way for them, like in 10 to 20 years from now... They have no clue of what it might even be. The culture of free may also not make it easy.
this is a great iteview Henrik is amazing
Thanks for the positive comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes, he has made a great call and Bitcoin looks like it wants to keep going!
Fully invested. Let’s go 🎉 I’ll do some puts later in the second quarter to hedge. Not pulling out.
Thanks for the comment Rob! Gotta ride the wave!
Well, in January, 2024, the latest CPI report for December showed inflation started INCREASING again and rose 0.3 percent. The problem I have with the latest CPI report was inflation rose during a time when the cost of oil and energy dropped SIGNIFICANTLY. As a result, inflation should have dropped like a rock, but it actually increased. Prices are still RISING. We need deflation but it's not happening.
Thanks for the insightful comment and taking the time to view our content! I agree totally! Inflation is not pulling back in spite of what the CPI is or what the government is saying. Inflation is still out of control and if oil spikes to $100, look out!
I went to Costco yesterday and I couldn’t even find a parking spot. People are spending like crazy and buying stuff they don’t need imo
You didn’t see it because housing makes up the highest weight on CPI measurement and it was up
@@positive_man_jb It went up again in January's report. Not good.
Throughout the Great Depression, which was deflationary, gold miners went up 80% & increased dividends.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Owning some physical gold as part of an overall investment portfolio is prudent, irrespective of the environment. Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
@@BloorStreetCapital Steve Hanke!
Issenvan1050- Maybe because fascist democrat president FDR confiscated all gold from American citizens starting in 1933?
Mike Maloney or Bix Weir would be interesting from a precious metals point of view…
Great channel IMO more fear and doubt content will motivate sellers to complete their good work
That was awesome. Thankyou for the blueprint.
Thanks for the comment Mike and for taking the time to view our content!
Nice interview. I do not agree with Gold at $1200 and DXY at 120 but the way HZ puts it you got to sit up and listen, and perhaps hedge your shorts.Thanks, Regards, Liked and subscribed.
Thanks for the positive comment, the 'like' and for subscribing! We sincerely appreciate it. Who else would you like to see on our channel?
Great.
Should have asked how cbdc would change things.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I will in our next chat!
Sounds like the perfect buying opportunity. Love to get stuff on sale!
Is far back as I can see gold during a recession has a short dip before it takes off. Go look at the charts that shows it every time
No one knows when it will go up or down but always a good idea to hold some physical. Nothing better then gold in the hand!
This gives me an idea for a RUclips series comparing "expert" projections to reality over time.
That's actually a great idea but I'm not sure I could get them back once I told them the topic.
No matter what happens, these perennial bears are ALWAYS right at some point.
In the future, they ALWAYS look back and claim they predicted everything that has happened.
In better days they used to call such scammers "snake oil salesmen" with an apt punishment: "tar and feather and ride out of town on a rail."
They are incorrigible.
Great interview and his knowledge is certainly impressive but let’s see how this shakes out, it seems a little too extreme for me to latch onto.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Time will tell!
Great to see somebody bearish on Gold for a change unlike a couple of other famous market strategists on RUclips.
Thanks for the comment and thanks for taking the time to view our content! I try to bring on opposing views. If you have any other guest suggestions please let me know.
This is a crazy scenario. Oil at $10!!!!!!
Agree - at 10 no oil company would be profitable.
Oil futures were trading negative back in March 2020
@@robertbender73yes it was, I'm not sure if you remember we had a pandemic. The world stopped and you can't turn the oil tap off over night.
Henrik has called the ENTIRE rally from Oct 2023. He also called oil to decline. He’s an inductive thinker.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
I am looking forward to seeing the outcome of the prediction
Thanks for the comment Peter and for taking the time to view our content! Most definitely! We will have Henrik on again as we head into Q2.
Dont worry, WHATEVER happens, in the future he will have "predicted" literally everything that happened
When they reach extreme highs and or "if"? Speculation likely peaked in 21, and the last 3 months could of been the blow off the top rally. It was one of the if not the most vertical rally in history.
Good call! Market soared again today 👍🏼
Based on the market manipulation, the 1st half of the year should be horrible. At least a 10% drop in the S&P.
He’s onto something
Is it the bond market when the 2 year un inverts? Or the reverse repo when it goes to zero or is it the bank lending program at 147 billion and is going to end soon or is it the New York fed empire index at -.43.7 lowest since. Any of 2020
I love Henriks look at the whole picture ond his analysis. The only thing I think is there is not enough money to finish the last big push maybe a push not to those levels sine most people are in debt and dry and they are not sending help
He isn't looking at anything except his flawed models.
There is 6 trillion sat in money markets at the moment profiting from the high interest rates. Poor people are in debt and dry but poor people dont move markets.
Will be interesting to see how these predictions actually turn out. I would be very surprised if the SP500 goes to 6100 by June 2024 as he says. Reminds me of the famous saying by Yogi Berra " It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."
Thanks for the comment and thanks for taking the time to view our content! I love that quote! I might have to start using it.
Interesting.
Thanks for the comment Boris and for taking the time to view our content!
This guys good !
Hi it's Jimmy Connor from @BloorStreetCapital, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content. If you would have suggestions on other guests please let us know.
The Private credit sector will be one of the Dominos that tip the scale. Its also important to note that the S&P 500 is being help up by 7 companies. The stock market is the only indicator that isnt pointing towards a recession. Those companies are up because of their investments in AI. So theres an AI bubble aswell. Theres so many signs pointing to a crash.
It's Jimmy Connor, from @BloorStreetCapital, thanks for the comment Jared and you raise a very good point! I should try to interview someone from that sector.
Lol the stock market isnt an indicator of anything. Venezuela and argentinas stock markets have been vertical lines and those economies have been terrible for decades. A rising stock market is literally not a good thing.
Henrik sets it up as if he's right about the crash, he's right about everything else that he says follows. But that isn't necessarily correct at all: Peter Schiff certainly predicts a crash, for example, but his aftermath is wildly different from Henrik's.
Thanks for the comment Michael and for taking the time to view our content! Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
improbable!
All these things u describe as a Crisis like Oil below $10 sounds Fantastic! As a consumer not a buyer oil this wud be such a relief! You Investers seem to Love High Oil Prices? You prob don't even own a car? The rest of the world that needs to Use Oil is gasoline it is the cruelest form of crippling taxes! This forecast sounds Great for us!
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
What impresses me most about Michelle Stewart is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
Isn't that the same Mrs Michelle Stewart that my neighbours are talking about, she has to be a perfect expert for people to talk about her so well
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
There will never be a market crash with the Fed's market rigging tools
Very interesting! I do agree with Henrik.
Thanks for the comment Arnaud and for taking the time to view our content! Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
The latest ISM Services sector growth rate came in a contracting rate of 43.
100% spot on. Sell the first rate cut as they say which should be May / June time frame
March
If they cut in March his whole thesis is off because something broke@@Minneolaos
yup
Henrik is one of the most informative market guys I’ve heard in recent times. I agree on the ultimate collapse. He must have very robust models.
But do you agree with 30% rise in 6 months so what if it crashes 30% from that level will still be higher
@@superalexandre8450 First of all, you need to freshen up your math skills. Let's assume for a minute that the S&P is 100. If it were to rise by 30% then that would be 130. If it were to then lose 30% from there then that would be 91 (lower than 100). I heard Henrik say that he expects the S&P to rise to about 6,100 which would be about 30% up from here. But that we would then have a crash worse than 1929. The Dow crashed almost 90% in 1929. And so, I don't know where you came up with the up 30%, down 30% scenario? Maybe you you should re-watch the video.
He said he thinks it will be the worst crash since 1929 (he didn't say it would be as bad).
Is bit coin cash or other coins an option
Loved this interview.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
It’s amazing how opposite I see the economy. I picture the first few months of the year being scary and then catching itself
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yeh Presidential year so they will do whatever they can to keep it up.
@@BloorStreetCapital 100%. That’s my thought process as well
The economy is the worst ever in history don't follow the media telling everyone the opposite.
and that's why he's a professional and you're not
@@bannistervoid Well. . . I am a professional and have been since 1995, but plenty of people have different perspectives. Even with the same information we can see things differently.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to FEEL this or smell this coming. WE ARE BROKE !
Thanks for the comment Debora and for taking the time to view our content! The debt levels are insane but yet the economy keeps humming along. Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
Reminds me of what Harry Dent says. If there is not crash by end of year, then analyst will hang it up cuz something just isn't right. Also agree price pull back on precious metals.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Time will tell! I'm not familiar with Harry Dent. Is he a guest I should interview?
If he says that the market, including commodities, will rise substantially over the first half of the year, then it’s hard to believe some of the predictions like gold going down to $1250 from the much higher level that it gets to towards the middle of this year.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
I wrongly criticized Henrik at the beginning of 2023 for which he rightly blocked me on x, unfortunately, he is and was 100% right, just like David Hunter, soloway was completely wrong, I think 6000 s&p500 and 150 k bitcon until June are correct
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
I’ll have to order the Zeberg report in case I run out of toilet paper
This is the real deal! Thank U!
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
SP500 reaching 6K by Summer doesn't seem realistic, especially if earnings disappoint and unemployment keeps ticking up in the first half of the year. Also Henrik says recession by Summer but the stock market still keeps going up to 6K.
Agreed, the stock market is forward looking enough to see a recession coming in a few months.
His analysis is flawed the S&P won’t rise to anywhere near that level with a recession on the horizon, the S&P is forward looking as you say, and the signs are strengthening that there will be a recession and possible crash. That’s without any black swan event, which is increasingly likely too - Red Sea conflicts are increasing container pricing again, plus risks of new pandemic, increasing war likelihood in key economies, worrying times.
Stock market races to top within a few months of a recession beginnng. Happened 9/9 times
@@robertbender73 ... because recessions are 'declared' late/lagging?
He says people put money into stocks because of fomo which leads to 6k and it would crash.
Looks like we've found the only man on Earth who can see the future. If this was true, wouldn't he be the richest man in the World by now? Being able to see the future of stocks would make that happen, no?
There are plenty more like him, wealthy people got out of the market in 2023, look it up. There are tons of people who growth their wealth tremendously prior to and during recessions because they dont listen to the news and watch the real data. Its almost too easy
He's done very well financially don't worry
@@phdwinner Good for him, doesn't mean he isn't a charlatan though. Again, someone who could predict the future of the markets even somewhat accurately wouldn't be 'well off', they'd be richer than God. Literally none of the current macroeconomic or societal factors point to a repeat of 1929, end of story.
@@johnniejayMaybe he is? Who knows. Maybe he is God? I have no proof. That's what faith is believing without seeing. "Thomas, you have seen and so you believe. Blessed are those who have not seen, yet believe.".
@@phdwinner I feel like you might've missed the point of my comment. It wasn't a referendum on the existence of a monothiest diety.
James doesnt know about the Sahm Rule, recommend looking it up. Also needs to look at the unemployment chart at FRED and look at where the chart is when recessions start. Doesnt look good when you consider this, yield curve, fed funds rate, LEI, negative real GDI, and on and on.....its here, what you do with the warnings is a personal choice
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I will check out the Sahm Rule!
what is the sam rule?
i've heard of the simon rule where
simon says...
Also there is not going to be a lag or a time in between, as soon as the economy faulters the fed will print aggressively.
Thanks Lance! The one thing the Fed does well is print!
As long as the war time deficit fiscal spending spree continues, the economy and labor market are not going to implode. This is pretty much locked in until March 2025 when Biden's fiscal budget will expire. The stock market front runs the economy by generally 6 months. When/if Wall Street sniffs that the spending spree is going to be tapered back, that's when the stock market complete the topping process. You're looking at late Summer or Fall of this year at the soonest. However, we are in a fiscal dominated regime, and fiscal spending usually increases during recessions due to various entitlement programs. The risk is now and will continue to be a re-ignition of inflation. The question is what will be the dominant theme. The excessive fiscal pump or the Fed's response to the high inflation it will bring.
Great comments and thanks for taking the time to view our content!
Technical analyst:
So the 14-Year Cup & Handle in GOLD is going to break down in an environment of warmongering?
That's a bold move, Cotton...
let's see if it works out for him.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! 2024 is going to be an interesting year!
I personally can not see how the $ is now going to gain in value in a market that is struggling, if the $ does gain in value then the Export market will then slow down dramatically.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! In a land of paupers the USD is always king!
Inflation does cause the velocity of money to increase, that could be the short term catalyst.
This is the presidential election year in the US. The incumbent will do anything to avoid a recession. Without a recession, stock markets will hold to the upside, more or less. Rate cutting or stimulus will be used regardless of inflation.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! 100%!!!
Look up George Bush in 2008, election year, talking about being an optimist and not an economist. Market was down and continued to go down through election until March 2009 after Obama took office
@@lI0OIl00OO00llII
Yeah, look up. In 2008, George W Bush second term ended. He was no longer incumbent, he was a lame duck.
The election was between Obama and John McCain.
2024 election, Joe Biden is incumbent.
The Fed now has more tools than ever before. Interest rate at 5% and QT has been done for quite a long time. The Fed can lower the interest rates a few times and start QE any time to stimulate the economy.
I think Henrik is wrong about gold. Yes gold and silver will drop slightly when the markets crash, but it will be from a higher position and likely only back to where it is at today 2000, or 1600 at worst. Right now I think gold is heading up to around 2500. I do not believe things will be as bad as 1929. They will be bad but not as bad as that.
Thanks for the comment John and for taking the time to view our content! Let's hope it rips to $2500+!!!
It will be like 1937, which was worse than 1929. Debt bubble is way too high and govt cant bail it out....
I like this guy a lot. A blowoff top makes perfect sense considering the massive misunderstanding of the markets by the retail investor. People think falling rates signal a soft landing. Wrong. It's the bond market's way of warning us about the future. Dumb money drives the market up, and smart money dumps it. That's been the story for the last 120 years. Why would it change now?
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I like your expression "dumb money drives the market up...'
Thanks! @@BloorStreetCapital
Yes but did he say 6100?!? 😂
@@moneycashstocks He sure did. That does seem a bit high! but the conditions are right for a feeding frenzy. New highs bring out the herd.
In the United States has this massive debt problem and the only way to get out of it is if you monetize the debt. Which means money printing which means gold goes up
He is totally wrong about Gold. 2024 gold will shine.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Do you have any other guest suggestions we should have on to discuss gold?
Will visit this page in April to see if the 6100 SP level is reached. Hear audio at 7:13 (month or two before June) then at 15:56 where he says earlier than June.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! His time for 6100 was June. Do you have any guest suggestions we should have on?
Not June. Hear audio at 7:13 (month or two before June) then at 15:56 where he says earlier than June . So April.
@@BloorStreetCapital Hear audio at 7:13 (month or two before June) then at 15:56 where he says earlier than June.
@@sn455 thanks for this...I will clarify during our next interview.
I can't see Gold dropping from 2020 to 1250 during a recession.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I would agree. If it does we have a lot more to worry about.
On your thesis about gold you mentioned that in a deflation, liquidity will be needed and as such there will be a sell pressure on gold. Have you considered that the central banks will open the flooding gates again and flush the economy with money to prevent a deflation? The selling pressure hypothesis seems a long shot, but we will see. Good thoughts btw!
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Thomas and for taking the time to view our content! Great point about the CBs. The one thing they do well is print!
I concur 100% with Henrik's forecast for Q1, Q2 2024, fall of DXY to 90, S&P rallying to 5500/5600 levels. Then the fall in US 2Y leads the Fed to turn dovish to outright ramping up QE by end of Q4 2024.
I have a feeling that person asking questions here doesn't understand markets properly. Henrik Top as always.
Thanks for the comment/ feedback and for taking the time to view our content! What other questions do you suggest I ask?
A bit harsh.
Market is not prediction, but reaction.
Hi it's Jimmy Connor from @BloorStreetCapital, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content. I love that quote!
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
This guy is predicting $800 gold price, what nonsense
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Agreed, $800 is dramatic, but he suggested $1250 as a more realistic target. What do you think of $1250?
If DXY goes down, how will gold go down, too?
Thanks for the comments and for taking the time to view our content! This is a great question and I should have picked up on it. I will get him to clarify this during our next discussion. Do you have any guest suggestions on who we should have on the show?
@@BloorStreetCapital Steve Hanke!
@@issenvan1050 thanks will check him out!
@@BloorStreetCapital He had projected 9% peak CPI 1.5 years in advance! He is the best in business! He has been consistently accurate so far! His interview w/ Daniel Lacalle (from months ago) has been the most comprehensive one recently. I watch his every interview twice. Read his CV, too. Good luck!
To obtain USD, wouldn’t central banks sell treasuries?
yes. there will be a huge market crsh
Fear sells like hot cakes.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! So true! Why do you think that is?
Looking at the US Bureau of Statistics, under the Consumer Price Index, one can notice that in the last quarter of this year, stocks are not really doing well, especially energy stocks as they seem to be below the zero point. However, I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound as I have no clue the direction of the market. Can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve of $300k across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio.
Consult a fiduciary counsellor; these professionals are among the best in the business and offer individualized guidance to clients based on their risk tolerance. There are undesirable ones, but some with a solid track record can be excellent.
For you to grow your portfolio in today's market, you really need to be coachable and willing to get off your high horses. I for example, have managed to grow mine from $250k to 300% of my initial deposit within the past 8 months just by copying trades from a broker that has better skillset and technical know-how than me.
@@hasede-lg9hj Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
The advisor that guides me is Vivian Carol Gioia, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name. She's established.
Do I agree with Henrik he's a clever man, but there are other clever me who say it's solely the growth in M2 and nothing to do with supply. In addition food inflation was the major inflationary item in the USA and they are largely self sufficient in that and not reliant on imports and long supply chains.
What i also dont understand is how the dollwr will go up when rates still take about 6 months to go down. Doesnt the dollar move with the fed funds rate? Or will it be ahead a few months so while the fed is lowering rates the dollar will go up?
Thanks for the comment/question! The dollar will go down when the Fed starts cutting. Henrik mentioned this when he was referring to the US Dollar Index or the DXY.
Does he say this every year?
Thanks for the comment/question and for taking the time to view our content! I will ask him this during our next discussion. This is what is so great about RUclips, it's there forever!
Yes, calling for a melt up or blow off top every year until it happens. And then a credit event or market crash. Its marketing 101 to grow on social media