What the US is doing to Canada is ludicrous. If there is any country in the world which should be our ally, it is Canada. You’d think even his supporters would be uncomfortable with this.
If you see canadian polls, trump may have done the impossible, its not sure yet but there is a big chance the liberal party out of nowhere has a chance to stay in power.
I thought Trudeau’s response was level headed. I know your dislike for him (warranted) but that was great to hear even as an American! Our friendship has strengthened us for the better.
Please ignore the negative comments here Mark. THere are plenty of us who understand the financial/political/economic landscape based on these vids. Yes, we dont need to agree with evth you say, but at least you help us understand the world and let us form our own views. We really appreciate this!
Just a heads up. That 10% addition has no start date yet. It seems like the 10% addition on Canada is just to make the Can/Mex tarrifs not look so bad. Not sure that 10% even gets applied to China.
Anecdotally, I think U.S. exports of services will take a hit if Trump continues down that path. I personally cancelled Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+ after yesterday. If you go to the Canada subreddit, so many posts are about encouraging others to do so, and find alternatives, whether Canadian, Mexican, or other countries
Mark, I have been loving your videos since I found you and have retained more information from your channel than any others. I am at an important point in my life where I will be going from highschool to college and would like your recommendations from your life experiences on paths you wish you would have taken, and what you would recommend for someone who wants to have a career In the financial markets.
Question about duration outlook. If tariffs are here to stay for a while. rGDP growth takes a hit, lowering employment, demand (and inflation), leading to the Fed to cute, bringing down short term rates. I would expect this to ripple into duration as well, so I would be long TLT in this scenario in the medium term. Do you think duration will take a hit just in the short term or also the long term? I assume just in the short term since you are long TLT.
Hey Mark! I recall your brief investment in Goodyear Tires and wondered if that was a play on a turnaround story. Even so, what do you look for that shows huge potential for a successful turnaround for a company/stock that is otherwise priced for bankruptcy? Thanks.
Hey Mark - you do a great job - I personally think you're an elite mind in this industry and you're the only person I go out of my way to listen to. Quick question, could you give us your thoughts on the tariff impact when accounting for changes in currency? The firm I work for put out a piece on that where the currency up/down washes out the majority of the tariff impact (from past Trump admin) - but obviously not all - thanks.
You’ve spoken before about capital to money market inversions and how that can be a leading indicator of a recession. Is this current curve of a negative money market slope and a positive capital market slope an indicator of anything?
Hi Mark, any thoughts on AGNC’s move this week? Seems like it rallied sharply despite sluggish results, following the rally on NLY. But NLY results didn’t seem outstanding either, am I missing something?
Loves this last market outlook , it gets closer to the economic reality and that's why i like about your market outlook. Is there any chance that Mexico enters BRICS as a retaliation against the U.S ? Is there a risk to see more countries joining BRICS to avoid Trump's tariff and what could be the impact on the U.S dollar as a reserve currency ?
What do you think of Danielle Smith's (Alberta Premier) stance against the federal government and other provinces? From the January 15 news: "Smith has cautioned Ottawa against blocking energy exports to the U.S. in response to tariffs, calling it an 'empty threat' that would spark a national unity crisis." Was she implying a threat to leave Canada with her "national unity crisis" comment?
Dr. Meldrum, I don't think there's a particularly easy way to separate Trump from the markets, and in this regard you're providing the full spectrum of what inputs and outputs control the market machine. Also, this is why I look forward to the Discord so that we may further our education, collaboration, and navigation of the market together - both in the financial and psychological sense. You already do an amazing job of giving us that perspective, and I think some modest guardrails (such that you're doing) will help us not derail into some overt focus on "the political" like some of the comments have attempted to do.
Hi, Dr.Mark, Why would the initial reaction on Monday from exposure to duration not do well? The market will anticipate margin compression across companies, which means slower growth, which means more rate cuts back int the picture, which means lower yields across the spectrum! I don't see investors running away high quality cyclical IG bonds. Could you kindly clarify why rates would rise initially?
Interested in an answer to this as well. Margin compression assumes price stays constant. If prices rise, consumers feel inflation which would signal higher rates for longer as bond buyers would demand higher rates for higher inflation which would increase a given company’s WACC and lead to lower valuations. That’s my speculation.
I'm pretty sure a tariff war is going to spark concerns about inflation. And since the duration or amount of these tariffs is uncertain, there is no way the Fed can plan to cut rates when they have no clue what's going on and the fear is all toward the inflation side. As the Fed has said, it's very easy for them to cut rates fast if they are behind, but it's very hard for them to catch up if inflation gets ahead of them.
I always thought of US trade deficits would be similar to a company running a negative cash conversion cycle. Basically, you have your suppliers finance your deficit. Additionally, US is able to export some of its inflation as USD is the global reserve currency which provides a natural bid for the dollar. Usually prices would adjust downwards and import prices would increase for US citizens. To me, reducing the trade deficit through tariffs doesn’t really make sense as trade deficits for US don’t seem to be as relevant as they would be for other countries. Is there a flaw with my thinking somewhere ?
Awesome video! I was telling my wife Canada needs to tax america on the energy at the same 25% and then you said it! Hopefully tariffs force canada into finally refining our resources here and selling to other countries. Make us independent for once
1)in the applied level there is my posititons section should i watch from the new one or do i have to watch the previous ones too? IS THERE ANY BENEFIT TO IT? 2) A silly question but i am curious,you once said you never had to do a job as you started your own venture,but there is a section in applied level on how institutions trade , how did you know, like YOU TALKED WITH SOMEONE ? 3) you said you know nothing about this ai and stuff so in future if you want to do a sector analysis how will you go about it?DO YOU HAVE A SET PLAN like i will do THIS then THAT?
If i was a country leader now in mexico or canada, i start purging microsoft office first and then windows itself from goverment instituions first and then companies. On simpler strategy is to stop enforcing anti copywrite laws for american software even in big companies.
1) i have taken applied level ,i want to ask with recent ai and agi (which will have 300-400 iq) development talks ,will they take all finance jobs like analysts etc in the whole financial sector as they will be better than us? 2)i am feeling really low as ,even if i study all these sector analysis and stuff in applied level or do cfa, these things could just be done by them,so is it even worth it to spend any time on it?
What's the evidence they will have 300-400 iq? That level of IQ has no practical meaning for humans. If they achieve that level of intelligence, then we have bigger things to worry about than our finance jobs being taken away from us by AI. I wouldn't worry too much. CFA preps you for higher level thinking and how to think, which builds on your real world experience. Wouldn't worry about "AI" replacing that.
MM recommended this for that issue: ruclips.net/video/wWIA_aEZjb8/видео.htmlsi=mfBmkiN_dOpvR7kN AI will replace lowperformers/lowearners - it will only augment and improve highperformer/highearners... Which do you want to be?
I'm long on everything since last year's spring, so my silver lining in all this mess is that most likely I'm still in the green after all is said and done and bled out. And given how irrational the markets are and are doing everything in their power to ignore what's happening, and given the average attention span of a major news story is barely 2 days, I won't sound insane for expecting another quick V-shaped recovery in a week or two. Fun (not really)
1)Do people really can make money by seeing what trades the is senators have taken ? 2)Do you expect us to do financial modelling for every security we want to buy, hold or sell( if we will build personal portfolio), which I think is impossible and it has a lot of assumptions ,so why are we making it since it is based on a lot of assumptions which can be true or false?
1) No - at least not over the long-run. If you're buying when the senators are buying then you must be selling when the senators are selling. 2) The point of financial modelling isn't to get to the "correct" intrinsic value of a stock. That is unobservable. The point is to test out your assumptions, and see the sensitivity of those assumptions on the target price, and the relationship between the various assumptions.
Trying to logically step through the game theory that may unfold here. Agree that those damaged by US imposing tariffs are incentivized to act as a coalition and strike at red states. If politically savvy, then those instituting the tariffs would do so in a way that increases the value of the red state labor, or that the tariffs would generate enough federal government revenue that would then be used to economically fortify red states. Perhaps I’m oversimplifying but I would expect some new equilibrium to be reached if tariffs stick especially if deregulation can be leveraged to support the most severely impacted industries like automotive. Nothing quick, nothing painless but certainly a spectacle of volatility ahead.
Slam buy on /ES puts tonight when it opens, take profit mid-day tmr, then if IV is high enough, short 1 DTE /ES puts with strike a few hundred points OTM. If you want to gamble, buy some calls for Tues expiration.
Hi Mark, one thing that will supposedly do well is market makers, which thrieve on volatility. Most of them are private, but Virtu Financial in U.S. and Flow Traders in the Netherlands are public. I have been interested in market makers, imter-dealer brokers, and similar companies since I started my investment journey a few years ago. I would love to hear your thoughts on this sector, considering their peculiarities: low or negative beta, some have reasonably stable dividends, they are posed to benefit from increase in volumes and / or volatility in a wide range of assets, including crypto. Thanks for your videos!
Dr.Meldrum you have spoken in past podcasts that technology is deflationary. Could there be some method to the Trump madness:’ 1. AI implementations made reduce the need for labor. 2. Deportations will decrease the labour pool 3. AI will result in better allocation of resources in The US possibly reducing the need for resources imported from Canada and Mexico. 4. AI may lead to more on shoring of manufacturing in the US reducing imports from Canada and Mexico. In the short term during the economic realignment there will be inflation but I. The longer term the American economy may become more balanced as long as the debt burden is addressed. Canada in my opinion needs to get its economy in order and simply retaliating is a no win situation, the US economy is just too large to feel any long term pain from Canada retaliating with tariffs. Maybe what Trump is doing will force Canadians to finally elect people with some common enough to put forth policies that will encourage growth and reduce the burden of taxes many successful people find debilitating?
I wonder if this all turns out well for the US, if you will make a reconciliation video. You’re highly intelligent Mark, I think if you were in Tradeau’s spot, Canada would have a fighting chance along with Mexico. But you’re intelligent, inherently the reason why you are not in that position. Canada and Mexico are in trouble.
Hi Mark! Tariffs from the 1860s to 1910s were highly successful, reducing dependence on the British Empire and turning the U.S. into a manufacturing hub. Why wouldn’t bringing back tariffs today achieve the same success in rebuilding manufacturing and making the U.S. more self-sufficient? Can you explain in detail?
@@har_d_rocks9987 If you want to manufacture just for the sake of manufacturing, then why not, protectionism creates that space. But it stifles any innovation, you don't have to out-compete anyone as long as your product price remains under the price of imports. And trust me, even domestic competition won't try to innovate, there is no incentive. All you'll get is customers getting screwed over until they get fed up and buy the imported items anyway If you want examples how tariffs absolutely tanked, look at the automotive industry. Domestic brands, both cars and bikes, are miserable. Okay, that's exaggerated a bit, but even though previous administrations tried to curb the inflow of imported cars and bikes, the inability or rather unwillingness to innovate from domestic producers led to their downfall. And rather than locking tf in and trying to turn the tide in the lab, they were busy either using technology from competitors or lobbying and crying to the Congress It's so ironic how Ford and others have plants in Mexico while Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and others have plants in the US. Even with those labor costs they make better products than the domestic brands can. By far
Wonderful commentary, and great ideas on what could be driving Trump’s decisions! Note on Friday he stated in a press conference, there is no concessions these countries can make this is an economic decision. If that’s true, it helps your theory.
Trump knows real estate and real estate loves/needs low rates. One way to get the FED to cut is a big market drop...so is this his way of getting the FED to do what he wants? Unless the market thinks that tariffs will be short-lived and/or wont go through?
Really glad I moved to ~70% cash over the last few months. I've been also slowly accumulating gold. I think this is a setup for gold to blast through $3000 maybe even move to $4000 in 2025 if this type of insanity persists.
Can you please arrange to have the Market Outlooks on RUclips Music? I think you can do so via some type of RSS feed I love watching the videos but I don't have mobile data
China is 10% tariff ontop of what they have already. Does that change it? Don’t think Canada has much tariffs at all so different base level currently.
50:34 Most of the US Imports come from China, and China is also the mayor buyer of American debt, basically China pays America to consume their products. I think thats why it will be only a 10% over China, the risk to get a supply driven inflation is to much to take
This is a far from accurate commonly parroted nonsense statement. China holds less than 3% of US treasury. Japan is a larger holder and Fed, banks, governments, pensions, insurance, etc, hold most of our debt. Close to 70% is held domestically.
Good day, Dr. Mark. Have you come across or can you recommend a good read on market manipulation schemes carried out over the past century in financial markets-something like a 'dark bible of fraud'? The idea is to build awareness for the upcoming deregulated environment.
Hi Dr. Mark, is it possible Trump went lighter on China because there are more currently existing tariffs via section 301 issued under the Biden presidency on specific goods being imported from China? I believe there weren’t near as many tariffs on Canada or Mexico prior to Trump being sworn in when compared to China.
doesn't trump want to onshore supply chains and replace fed income tax with tariffs? And then also lower taxes for all companies that comply? Like you said, seems like a stretch without retaliation but HYPOTHETICALLY could his play make sense in that context?
The 10% on Candian Energy shows his weak point for the world to see. I thought he was the great negotiator. If the bloodbath comes it too late to trade but I would wait for his back tracking for the reversal. He did it all through his first administration. I would hate to think he does it on purpose!!
Any thoughts on to the idea that the extent to the tariffs on China would be a negotiation tactic to force China to buy US bonds to bring long end yields down? This would help China deal with their currency deflation spiral as well. There is a rumor that Stephan Miran proposed this.
This is outrageous, but he did promise to do so and people still backed him. Canada is our friend, I’m so embarrassed. My sincere apologies to all Canadians, you don’t deserve this.
Trade does not seem to be the big part of US GDP and growth, but the investment and incoming capital into the US is big chuck of growth and GDP. Would not it be better to concentrate on investments instead of trade war?
Not quite - Canada would be like California, with over a 50% tax - plus you now pay about $20K a year for health care coverage - and live with school shootings just being part of the culture.
Funny how you are usually against liberal policies but now against a conservative president's policy the Trumpers are complaining. Hope the courts step in, but like u said, maybe we get the correction we need to transfer the duration play back to equities. Thanks again for the great insight. Will you continue to make volatility suggestions in the future on the applied level?
Hi Mark, I think you should start a merch line and expand from hats to Stanley cups, hoodies, mugs, T-shirts, suit pins, bumper stickers etc. For those who passed level 1, the back of the shirt could show a check box checked next to the words "CFA level 1" and a buffering sign next to level 2.. only people who pass get to order it. same for level 2 pass outs and so on.
i wish i had a big tub of popcorn, but its been tariffed....how do you make a small fortune in Trumps World? Start with a large fortune- and work down.
I don't think this is a cash grab. He is almost 80 and has enough money to buy whatever he wants. I think he wanted to give them a chance to come back and negotiate. I will say that the tariffs on Canada make no sense. He should wait until that clown Trudeau is out and then work something out with Pierre.
I think it's important to keep in mind that this will hopefully end in 4 years or less, given the current President's supreme cardiovascular fitness, whereas alternatives to the U.S. may benefit our actual geopolitical adversaries. It's a real nice mess our American friends got us all into.
Mark, Trump didn’t start the EO bandwagon, he just got in the drivers seat. To call him a dictator is unnecessarily dramatic. I would expect you of all people to be more objective.
I hate to say this but as a history buff, watching this unfold is eerily similar to Germany in 1932, watching public sentiment change and fall in line with what just a couple years ago would be thought of as crazy ideas is very troubling.
It is nothing like 1932 Germany. In 1932 was Germany the most prosperous nation in the world? In 1932 was Germany's currency the reserve currency of the world? Were countries falling over themselves to invest in Germany in 1932? No. People were starving in Germany after WW1. The country was in shambles. People were desperate and unfortunately desperation leads people down dark paths. The US is nothing like that. It's mind boggling to even mention them in the same sentence.
@@w12p67go back and look at the speeches, firing up the public to rally against things, make Germany great again for lack of a better description, blaming others for their misfortune, sound similar? You know not of what you speak, go back and look it's different but the story here rhymes. The only difference is that Germany was in the doldrums from paying reparations but the rallying of public sentiment is exactly the same.
In fact, russia started World War II alongside the Nazis by occupying Poland-a well-known historical fact. They then attacked Finland, though with limited success. Meanwhile, the Nazis invaded Ukraine and Belarus. Although these countries were part of the Soviet Union at the time, they still existed and were under russian occupation.
Mark - I absolutely love your political insights and your humour! --- Fantastic work! -- Don't listen to the people who complain about it..
I was waiting for a sane opinion on this matter.thanks for taking time
What the US is doing to Canada is ludicrous. If there is any country in the world which should be our ally, it is Canada. You’d think even his supporters would be uncomfortable with this.
Suffer canuck
Right, I saw a poll saying his supporters don't even support this. Hope Mark is right that it reverses Tuesday.
If you see canadian polls, trump may have done the impossible, its not sure yet but there is a big chance the liberal party out of nowhere has a chance to stay in power.
The Canadians were booing the US national anthem in Ottawa yesterday! And these are the nicest people! It’s crazy what’s going on right now
Trump wants to see who are their true allies, at first in a nearby regional level
I thought Trudeau’s response was level headed. I know your dislike for him (warranted) but that was great to hear even as an American! Our friendship has strengthened us for the better.
Please ignore the negative comments here Mark. THere are plenty of us who understand the financial/political/economic landscape based on these vids. Yes, we dont need to agree with evth you say, but at least you help us understand the world and let us form our own views. We really appreciate this!
Brilliant session Mark! Much appreciated you sharing your thoughts on the markets and the connection to politics!
It is 10% in addition to existing tariffs, there were already tariffs on Chinese goods (although not sure if it were blanket tariffs)
Just a heads up. That 10% addition has no start date yet. It seems like the 10% addition on Canada is just to make the Can/Mex tarrifs not look so bad. Not sure that 10% even gets applied to China.
Anecdotally, I think U.S. exports of services will take a hit if Trump continues down that path. I personally cancelled Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+ after yesterday. If you go to the Canada subreddit, so many posts are about encouraging others to do so, and find alternatives, whether Canadian, Mexican, or other countries
Hold on to your butts! Shout out to the homies that went beta neutral before the weekend 🫡
Mark, I have been loving your videos since I found you and have retained more information from your channel than any others. I am at an important point in my life where I will be going from highschool to college and would like your recommendations from your life experiences on paths you wish you would have taken, and what you would recommend for someone who wants to have a career In the financial markets.
Question about duration outlook. If tariffs are here to stay for a while. rGDP growth takes a hit, lowering employment, demand (and inflation), leading to the Fed to cute, bringing down short term rates. I would expect this to ripple into duration as well, so I would be long TLT in this scenario in the medium term. Do you think duration will take a hit just in the short term or also the long term? I assume just in the short term since you are long TLT.
This is the best ‘online classes’ (its definitely feels like a classes to me) in the RUclips!
Please watch this fellow retail investors💯
Hey Mark! I recall your brief investment in Goodyear Tires and wondered if that was a play on a turnaround story. Even so, what do you look for that shows huge potential for a successful turnaround for a company/stock that is otherwise priced for bankruptcy? Thanks.
Hey Mark - you do a great job - I personally think you're an elite mind in this industry and you're the only person I go out of my way to listen to. Quick question, could you give us your thoughts on the tariff impact when accounting for changes in currency? The firm I work for put out a piece on that where the currency up/down washes out the majority of the tariff impact (from past Trump admin) - but obviously not all - thanks.
You’ve spoken before about capital to money market inversions and how that can be a leading indicator of a recession. Is this current curve of a negative money market slope and a positive capital market slope an indicator of anything?
Hi Mark, any thoughts on AGNC’s move this week? Seems like it rallied sharply despite sluggish results, following the rally on NLY. But NLY results didn’t seem outstanding either, am I missing something?
Loves this last market outlook , it gets closer to the economic reality and that's why i like about your market outlook. Is there any chance that Mexico enters BRICS as a retaliation against the U.S ? Is there a risk to see more countries joining BRICS to avoid Trump's tariff and what could be the impact on the U.S dollar as a reserve currency ?
What do you think of Danielle Smith's (Alberta Premier) stance against the federal government and other provinces?
From the January 15 news: "Smith has cautioned Ottawa against blocking energy exports to the U.S. in response to tariffs, calling it an 'empty threat' that would spark a national unity crisis."
Was she implying a threat to leave Canada with her "national unity crisis" comment?
Why wouldn't she want to block energy exports or atleast retaliate on that front? Did she give a reason?
Dr. Meldrum, I don't think there's a particularly easy way to separate Trump from the markets, and in this regard you're providing the full spectrum of what inputs and outputs control the market machine. Also, this is why I look forward to the Discord so that we may further our education, collaboration, and navigation of the market together - both in the financial and psychological sense. You already do an amazing job of giving us that perspective, and I think some modest guardrails (such that you're doing) will help us not derail into some overt focus on "the political" like some of the comments have attempted to do.
Hi, Dr.Mark, Why would the initial reaction on Monday from exposure to duration not do well? The market will anticipate margin compression across companies, which means slower growth, which means more rate cuts back int the picture, which means lower yields across the spectrum! I don't see investors running away high quality cyclical IG bonds. Could you kindly clarify why rates would rise initially?
Interested in an answer to this as well. Margin compression assumes price stays constant. If prices rise, consumers feel inflation which would signal higher rates for longer as bond buyers would demand higher rates for higher inflation which would increase a given company’s WACC and lead to lower valuations. That’s my speculation.
I'm pretty sure a tariff war is going to spark concerns about inflation. And since the duration or amount of these tariffs is uncertain, there is no way the Fed can plan to cut rates when they have no clue what's going on and the fear is all toward the inflation side. As the Fed has said, it's very easy for them to cut rates fast if they are behind, but it's very hard for them to catch up if inflation gets ahead of them.
I always thought of US trade deficits would be similar to a company running a negative cash conversion cycle. Basically, you have your suppliers finance your deficit.
Additionally, US is able to export some of its inflation as USD is the global reserve currency which provides a natural bid for the dollar. Usually prices would adjust downwards and import prices would increase for US citizens. To me, reducing the trade deficit through tariffs doesn’t really make sense as trade deficits for US don’t seem to be as relevant as they would be for other countries. Is there a flaw with my thinking somewhere ?
Great video as always!!!! Thank you
Thank you Mark
Great commentary. Thoughtful and packed with informed opinion. Thank you.
Awesome video! I was telling my wife Canada needs to tax america on the energy at the same 25% and then you said it! Hopefully tariffs force canada into finally refining our resources here and selling to other countries. Make us independent for once
Happy Sunday
1)in the applied level there is my posititons section should i watch from the new one or do i have to watch the previous ones too? IS THERE ANY BENEFIT TO IT?
2) A silly question but i am curious,you once said you never had to do a job as you started your own venture,but there is a section in applied level on how institutions trade , how did you know, like YOU TALKED WITH SOMEONE ?
3) you said you know nothing about this ai and stuff so in future if you want to do a sector analysis how will you go about it?DO YOU HAVE A SET PLAN like i will do THIS then THAT?
If i was a country leader now in mexico or canada, i start purging microsoft office first and then windows itself from goverment instituions first and then companies. On simpler strategy is to stop enforcing anti copywrite laws for american software even in big companies.
The anti copy write laws would be the biggest change and easier one. But would that even be legal?
1) i have taken applied level ,i want to ask with recent ai and agi (which will have 300-400 iq) development talks ,will they take all finance jobs like analysts etc in the whole financial sector as they will be better than us?
2)i am feeling really low as ,even if i study all these sector analysis and stuff in applied level or do cfa, these things could just be done by them,so is it even worth it to spend any time on it?
What's the evidence they will have 300-400 iq? That level of IQ has no practical meaning for humans. If they achieve that level of intelligence, then we have bigger things to worry about than our finance jobs being taken away from us by AI.
I wouldn't worry too much. CFA preps you for higher level thinking and how to think, which builds on your real world experience. Wouldn't worry about "AI" replacing that.
MM recommended this for that issue: ruclips.net/video/wWIA_aEZjb8/видео.htmlsi=mfBmkiN_dOpvR7kN
AI will replace lowperformers/lowearners - it will only augment and improve highperformer/highearners... Which do you want to be?
@@carlabosse that's cope. it will soon be smarter than anyone. there won't be any performer that can outperform ai, augmented or not
Your videos are brilliant Mark. Thanks for the time you put into them.
Value your opinion. Thanks for the info
how realistic do you think the possibility of european or asian tarrifs in response to the USA?
Inevitable.
I'm long on everything since last year's spring, so my silver lining in all this mess is that most likely I'm still in the green after all is said and done and bled out. And given how irrational the markets are and are doing everything in their power to ignore what's happening, and given the average attention span of a major news story is barely 2 days, I won't sound insane for expecting another quick V-shaped recovery in a week or two. Fun (not really)
1)Do people really can make money by seeing what trades the is senators have taken ?
2)Do you expect us to do financial modelling for every security we want to buy, hold or sell( if we will build personal portfolio), which I think is impossible and it has a lot of assumptions ,so why are we making it since it is based on a lot of assumptions which can be true or false?
1) No - at least not over the long-run. If you're buying when the senators are buying then you must be selling when the senators are selling.
2) The point of financial modelling isn't to get to the "correct" intrinsic value of a stock. That is unobservable. The point is to test out your assumptions, and see the sensitivity of those assumptions on the target price, and the relationship between the various assumptions.
Professor, after so many years I really feel like I know you personally!
And you are so happy you are short ! (at least a part of your portfolio)
I am sure this was answered before, but I haven't watched for some time - why does the 1Y UST have the lowest yield?
How about - keep your friends close and your enemies closer
Trying to logically step through the game theory that may unfold here. Agree that those damaged by US imposing tariffs are incentivized to act as a coalition and strike at red states. If politically savvy, then those instituting the tariffs would do so in a way that increases the value of the red state labor, or that the tariffs would generate enough federal government revenue that would then be used to economically fortify red states. Perhaps I’m oversimplifying but I would expect some new equilibrium to be reached if tariffs stick especially if deregulation can be leveraged to support the most severely impacted industries like automotive. Nothing quick, nothing painless but certainly a spectacle of volatility ahead.
Time to Load up on GM, Ford, and TLT Leaps ?!?!
Brave man.
Slam buy on /ES puts tonight when it opens, take profit mid-day tmr, then if IV is high enough, short 1 DTE /ES puts with strike a few hundred points OTM. If you want to gamble, buy some calls for Tues expiration.
Good video, man. Keep up the good work!
Hi Mark, one thing that will supposedly do well is market makers, which thrieve on volatility. Most of them are private, but Virtu Financial in U.S. and Flow Traders in the Netherlands are public.
I have been interested in market makers, imter-dealer brokers, and similar companies since I started my investment journey a few years ago. I would love to hear your thoughts on this sector, considering their peculiarities: low or negative beta, some have reasonably stable dividends, they are posed to benefit from increase in volumes and / or volatility in a wide range of assets, including crypto.
Thanks for your videos!
Dr.Meldrum you have spoken in past podcasts that technology is deflationary. Could there be some method to the Trump madness:’
1. AI implementations made reduce the need for labor.
2. Deportations will decrease the labour pool
3. AI will result in better allocation of resources in The US possibly reducing the need for resources imported from Canada and Mexico.
4. AI may lead to more on shoring of manufacturing in the US reducing imports from Canada and Mexico.
In the short term during the economic realignment there will be inflation but I. The longer term the American economy may become more balanced as long as the debt burden is addressed.
Canada in my opinion needs to get its economy in order and simply retaliating is a no win situation, the US economy is just too large to feel any long term pain from Canada retaliating with tariffs.
Maybe what Trump is doing will force Canadians to finally elect people with some common enough to put forth policies that will encourage growth and reduce the burden of taxes many successful people find debilitating?
I wonder if this all turns out well for the US, if you will make a reconciliation video. You’re highly intelligent Mark, I think if you were in Tradeau’s spot, Canada would have a fighting chance along with Mexico. But you’re intelligent, inherently the reason why you are not in that position. Canada and Mexico are in trouble.
is CAD headed to .5
Great video
56:55 1 vs 4 unless it's jon jones :)
How do you prefer to be addressed (by strangers, e.g. in the comments section)? Professor, Doctor, or just by your name?
How would Gold do?
Very very good.
Hi Mark! Tariffs from the 1860s to 1910s were highly successful, reducing dependence on the British Empire and turning the U.S. into a manufacturing hub. Why wouldn’t bringing back tariffs today achieve the same success in rebuilding manufacturing and making the U.S. more self-sufficient? Can you explain in detail?
@@har_d_rocks9987 If you want to manufacture just for the sake of manufacturing, then why not, protectionism creates that space. But it stifles any innovation, you don't have to out-compete anyone as long as your product price remains under the price of imports. And trust me, even domestic competition won't try to innovate, there is no incentive. All you'll get is customers getting screwed over until they get fed up and buy the imported items anyway
If you want examples how tariffs absolutely tanked, look at the automotive industry. Domestic brands, both cars and bikes, are miserable. Okay, that's exaggerated a bit, but even though previous administrations tried to curb the inflow of imported cars and bikes, the inability or rather unwillingness to innovate from domestic producers led to their downfall. And rather than locking tf in and trying to turn the tide in the lab, they were busy either using technology from competitors or lobbying and crying to the Congress
It's so ironic how Ford and others have plants in Mexico while Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and others have plants in the US. Even with those labor costs they make better products than the domestic brands can. By far
Can someone post a link to the LSEG earnings list? Is it public?
Description box
Wonderful commentary, and great ideas on what could be driving Trump’s decisions! Note on Friday he stated in a press conference, there is no concessions these countries can make this is an economic decision. If that’s true, it helps your theory.
I don't understand how does that help out marks theory?
Politics have a large part to play in the Markets and Economic policies.
Deal with the truth or live in your own lies.
2:55 bean
Trump knows real estate and real estate loves/needs low rates. One way to get the FED to cut is a big market drop...so is this his way of getting the FED to do what he wants? Unless the market thinks that tariffs will be short-lived and/or wont go through?
Really glad I moved to ~70% cash over the last few months. I've been also slowly accumulating gold. I think this is a setup for gold to blast through $3000 maybe even move to $4000 in 2025 if this type of insanity persists.
Time to start studying Mandarin
Can you please arrange to have the Market Outlooks on RUclips Music? I think you can do so via some type of RSS feed
I love watching the videos but I don't have mobile data
Is a dictatorship good for my retirement portfolio?
Could be
Mark, I believe the 10% for China is due to the existing 10% tariff that was imposed during Trump’s first term.
By the way, Canada can now begin selling to Greenland. :)
China is 10% tariff ontop of what they have already. Does that change it? Don’t think Canada has much tariffs at all so different base level currently.
50:34 Most of the US Imports come from China, and China is also the mayor buyer of American debt, basically China pays America to consume their products. I think thats why it will be only a 10% over China, the risk to get a supply driven inflation is to much to take
This is a far from accurate commonly parroted nonsense statement. China holds less than 3% of US treasury. Japan is a larger holder and Fed, banks, governments, pensions, insurance, etc, hold most of our debt. Close to 70% is held domestically.
I just hope we get out ok after all this, damn it’s a bold move though
Silver short squeeze. 60% of silver is imported from Mexico and Canada. 25% is going to really pressure short selling banks.
Doubt it markets will take it as bad as Dr. Meldrum thinks - There will always be the optionality of a new "trade deal" as in 2016
Good day, Dr. Mark. Have you come across or can you recommend a good read on market manipulation schemes carried out over the past century in financial markets-something like a 'dark bible of fraud'? The idea is to build awareness for the upcoming deregulated environment.
"Donald's is a f'ing moron."
-Rex Tillerson, Sec of State
I used to disagree, but after this...
I am shot BTC since friday..Guess whos going shopping
Why make insider trading when you can literaly create the rules...
Well fuck. My TLT is dead.
Hi Dr. Mark, is it possible Trump went lighter on China because there are more currently existing tariffs via section 301 issued under the Biden presidency on specific goods being imported from China? I believe there weren’t near as many tariffs on Canada or Mexico prior to Trump being sworn in when compared to China.
doesn't trump want to onshore supply chains and replace fed income tax with tariffs? And then also lower taxes for all companies that comply? Like you said, seems like a stretch without retaliation but HYPOTHETICALLY could his play make sense in that context?
The 10% on Candian Energy shows his weak point for the world to see. I thought he was the great negotiator. If the bloodbath comes it too late to trade but I would wait for his back tracking for the reversal. He did it all through his first administration. I would hate to think he does it on purpose!!
Hi Mark, I would love to hear your thoughts on how Canadian energy companies will fare during this time. Any insight would be appreciated, thanks!
57:31 Ooou no, I get your point, but skilled UFC fighter would one-shot KO even 10 average Joes, not 4! Ask Joe Rogan
American decline is real.
I think Canada should just take it, and survive those 4 years.
Any thoughts on to the idea that the extent to the tariffs on China would be a negotiation tactic to force China to buy US bonds to bring long end yields down? This would help China deal with their currency deflation spiral as well. There is a rumor that Stephan Miran proposed this.
This is outrageous, but he did promise to do so and people still backed him. Canada is our friend, I’m so embarrassed. My sincere apologies to all Canadians, you don’t deserve this.
Save your apologies, just get ready for pain.
lol were about to have the worst recession here in canada. i would be lucky if i can buy food soon
Keep Politics Section! I would suggest to even have a separate video on Politics. I think economics and politics cannot be separated out.
Trade does not seem to be the big part of US GDP and growth, but the investment and incoming capital into the US is big chuck of growth and GDP.
Would not it be better to concentrate on investments instead of trade war?
You may be confusing the trade balance with trade itself. Imports are over 4T. That is 13% of GDP. Exports are over 3T.
Trade war smells like stagflation - time to buy TIPS?
- Imagine, Canada becoming a part of US with heavily reduced taxes
- Professor Mark in Costa Rica : 🗿🗿🗿
Not quite - Canada would be like California, with over a 50% tax - plus you now pay about $20K a year for health care coverage - and live with school shootings just being part of the culture.
@MarkMeldrum I think in order to make US the biggest country in the world, Trump will offer and give Canada everything he can
Republicans would never allow Canada to be a state. They would be overwhelmingly Democrat and the size of California at that.
Great video! Muahahahaha
46:05 the definition of unethical behaviour …
Funny how you are usually against liberal policies but now against a conservative president's policy the Trumpers are complaining. Hope the courts step in, but like u said, maybe we get the correction we need to transfer the duration play back to equities. Thanks again for the great insight.
Will you continue to make volatility suggestions in the future on the applied level?
What languages you can speak? I assume Spanish, probably French - anything more?
Little Donald loves tariffs because he can act like a little dictator, bypassing congress. Such a little man
Hi Mark, I think you should start a merch line and expand from hats to Stanley cups, hoodies, mugs, T-shirts, suit pins, bumper stickers etc.
For those who passed level 1, the back of the shirt could show a check box checked next to the words "CFA level 1" and a buffering sign next to level 2.. only people who pass get to order it. same for level 2 pass outs and so on.
Can u adopt me
Daddy Mark
i wish i had a big tub of popcorn, but its been tariffed....how do you make a small fortune in Trumps World? Start with a large fortune- and work down.
I can't afford my caramel popcorn in India anymore either..
I don't think this is a cash grab. He is almost 80 and has enough money to buy whatever he wants. I think he wanted to give them a chance to come back and negotiate. I will say that the tariffs on Canada make no sense. He should wait until that clown Trudeau is out and then work something out with Pierre.
Do you think this could be a wake-up call for Canada? Politicians are saying we must never be this reliant on the US again.
I think it's important to keep in mind that this will hopefully end in 4 years or less, given the current President's supreme cardiovascular fitness, whereas alternatives to the U.S. may benefit our actual geopolitical adversaries. It's a real nice mess our American friends got us all into.
Mark, Trump didn’t start the EO bandwagon, he just got in the drivers seat. To call him a dictator is unnecessarily dramatic. I would expect you of all people to be more objective.
I hate to say this but as a history buff, watching this unfold is eerily similar to Germany in 1932, watching public sentiment change and fall in line with what just a couple years ago would be thought of as crazy ideas is very troubling.
It is nothing like 1932 Germany. In 1932 was Germany the most prosperous nation in the world? In 1932 was Germany's currency the reserve currency of the world? Were countries falling over themselves to invest in Germany in 1932? No. People were starving in Germany after WW1. The country was in shambles. People were desperate and unfortunately desperation leads people down dark paths. The US is nothing like that. It's mind boggling to even mention them in the same sentence.
@@w12p67go back and look at the speeches, firing up the public to rally against things, make Germany great again for lack of a better description, blaming others for their misfortune, sound similar? You know not of what you speak, go back and look it's different but the story here rhymes. The only difference is that Germany was in the doldrums from paying reparations but the rallying of public sentiment is exactly the same.
@@w12p67this country is a house of cards
Brilliant analysis, I am watching it for the third time today
In fact, russia started World War II alongside the Nazis by occupying Poland-a well-known historical fact. They then attacked Finland, though with limited success.
Meanwhile, the Nazis invaded Ukraine and Belarus. Although these countries were part of the Soviet Union at the time, they still existed and were under russian occupation.
Lol Mark. The Canadian economy is already shit, good luck with that retaliation and the subsequent depression