@@richie1589 the demand is going to significantly decrease and won't be as in demand other than high expertise, same going to apply to computer programming and other jobs, soo.. ai of our current era is going to be more important for independent users to create products, either physical, comic/animation, games, mostly areas of entertainment that can satisfy or internal desires. so fundamentally any designer/artist will have to be there own freelancer/brand name if they truly want to succeed during the advancements of ai.
Agreed. With all the previous articles, talks, etc. that have been published regarding the future of AI, this video brought absolutely nothing new to the discussion. Total fluff.
Yijuwarp Yes, because his predictions are somewhat naive extrapolations of the present and if you're bold enough to talk about the future, that's a problem. For a lot of what he says, this means nothing but maybe an adjusted time frame but I remember cringing a lot while watching that video. I'd have to watch it again to go into more detail and I'm not sure this is the right place for such an essay in the first place.
What he's really saying is that as time goes on the repetitive jobs at the bottom will be taken over by machines and even the entry-level jobs for humans will all require advanced degrees. So we're going to have to develop some kind of "Universal Basic Income" or half the population starves.
@@taylorsmith9629 Taxes. the way to pay Ubi is by limiting the costs of essentials and making luxery products expensive. say you want to go out to buy an expensive PC instead of a cheaper option that lets you do all you need to do right. The expensive PC parts would be 6-7x as expensive as right now due to Taxation that happens to fund the UBI. Besides that you'd also see larger taxes on people & company's. because everyone gets the UBI even if you earn billions you'd still get the Ubi so you can pay for all essentials. everything else you earn will be extra so this can be taxed a lot harsher then we tax currently. One of the major issues with implementing Ubi systems though is that before you can you need to have regulation laws about Energy,gas & rent/mortage prices. In that they are not allowed to exceed certain threshold so that people with UBI can still all use them. It's a system that can very well be applied in current day and age but it requires major regulation changes right now.
Education too often focuses what computers do too easily, mathematics and recall of input data. It is almost like people are trained to be replaced instead of being irreplaceable.
John O'Neill: You made a good point man. Western education started in Prussia, when they trained the working class in obedience and dumbed-down learning, to make obedient, patient drudges to work as soldiers and factory workers standing by machines. How easy it is to replace these human robots with AI robots. So this is another important reason to start teaching humans to learn to be creative, autonomous, original, and disobedient...
Nop. Educaction is focused on what is productive, and machines are made to do what is productive. If you shift the curriculum to liberal arts, then the world will become idiocracy.
@@rajinfootonchuriquen Nobody gets paid the big bucks to spell check, add a couple numbers or recall the capitol city of each state. Those things are effortlessly done by inexpensive computers and should not be the cornerstone of an education system today. In 1900 that did make sense. Creativity is way more important now if you are building homes or inventing the next wonder gizmo.
That's why free education is so important. We are wasting human capital if smart poor people aren't able to contribute their full potential due to a lack of money and connections.
The assumption that some jobs cannot be automated feels totally arbitrary. Humans are machines too, we are just biological machines. There is no reason to assume that mechanical/digital machines cannot do, what we do. It's just that CURRENT machines cannot do all the tasks. The more interesting question is: Do we want them to do all of our jobs? Especially regarding economy as well as goals like self-fulfillment.
They can but it won't happen in the near or even intermediate future. AI is a disruptor but not yet on that level. Traditional machines need humans to explicitely code their algorithms, and that works for easily describeable repetitive tasks. Like building cars in a factory. But some repetitive tasks can't be easily described, like recognizing handwritten digits. So you use a fundamentally different concept, you feed the AI with massive amounts of data and it figures out it's own algorithm. That's a revolutionairy new step that will shape the 21st century for many decades to come. To take it a step further and make AI's that can do things without being either explicitely programmed or trained with massive amounts of applicable data requires yet anothet revolutionairy advancement like the one described previously. It's not simply a logical continuation you can expect with improving training algorithms or hardware.
Uh he mentioned doctors and lawyers jobs as ones that will be impacted. Those aren’t typical blue collar jobs which means a education isn’t necessarily going to save you. I think he was alluding to humans needing to be more creative or think outside the box. Those that are gifted in that way may have a niche in the market the rest are out of luck.
Humans are not "biological machines". To this day no one knows how consciousness is actually generated in the brain because it isn't. AI may replace humans in cognitive functions but it's never going to be conscious and experience emotions.
As Anthony quoted the example of using machine learning to diagnose an eye disease, it will not be wiping out the job of an eye specialist rather it will be aiding to his diagnose process.
Yes. I can see "machine assistants" but not "machine doctors". Why? Because People will never accept a machine giving "the bad news". Also this lecture has a fundamental flaw that it doesn't see the potential for some kind of transhumanism and technological and AI singularity.
"Because People will never accept a machine giving "the bad news". " Disagree completely, in fact I prefer a machine, and predictions like this are worthless anyway, progress always impose itself whether you like it or not, adapt. "Also this lecture has a fundamental flaw that it doesn't see the potential for some kind of transhumanism and technological and AI singularity." Exactly what I was thinking, that graph was a joke. I wish I remember the name of the theory that elaborates on why humans are so bad at predicting huge paradigmatic shifts or catastrophes
Adrian Galilea Why did you attribute "people" to yourself (even tho it's plural). I can just say that I don't want a medical AI and by nature of set theory you can't disagree with my assertion, until you convince me (and others with this belief) that we should embrace an artificial doctor. Nivesh Proag Obviously no. A physician or "doctor" is an individual who practices medicine. Medicine in broad terms is a science that deals in finding the best way to cure or/and prevent diseases. This methodology involves other sciences like economics, pharmacology, sociology and psychology, physics and many more.
*All* jobs have the potential to be automated at one point, no matter how complex. It's only a matter of time before machines catch up to us in tackling "novel situations" too.
But he's right. AI and robotics is still soooooo far away from what humans can accomplish. There are so many complicated facets of our brain and composition that AI may never compete with. But he's right, for now and the foreseeable future, AI is confined to doing manual labor that can be broken up into pieces.
Indie Birdie yes but tech is moving faster then ever robots used to be unable to walk up stairs just 13 years ago now they can open doors carry coffee do your taxes drive a plane and that tech will double in the next 13 years
loool theyre getting good at making art, music, poetry, buisness strategies, marketing and a whole whost of novel creative endeavours now, I think he underestimated the machines.
I predicted this. I deserve to get famous but I'm not Edit: the comment above mine has 4 likes, and the comment below mine has 3 likes, while my comment has 0 likes 🤣🤣🤡
I dunno…. Music? No two songwriters write the same. No two composers compose the same. Computers are all built the exact same way. There will cease to be any individuality in music
Gosh, TED's community seems to become more rampant with individuals who are just plain ignorant. Instead of saying "meh" or condemning the content, add to it, give your opinion and have someone challenge it. We're here to learn, understand and adapt. Come on guys, grow up.
We need to start our transition now and intelligently. Theoretically, making things automated should be fantastic for our society, but because of how we build it, it will cause chaos.
I totally agree with you. We don’t have a plan, we’re just innovating and innovating. We’ll innovate ourself out of existence. But what this will require is cooperation. And currently companies, ceos, politicians, countries, are not willing to cooperate. They all want to use ai to benefit themselves.
It doesn't matter if we lose some jobs to machines, this has always been a feature of capitalism. Economic progress comes from the destruction of jobs, labor is then reallocated to where is is most valuable. A hundred years ago 40% of the workforce was in agricultural jobs, but as time progressed and more efficient machines were created, that figure has dropped to about 2%.
Which came as we made an upshift in many other industries - mostly shipping, manufacture, and sales. Those jobs are next to go. Our basic needs are finite as is our lifespan. As we amass information and technological sophistication, very soon we will be able to provide for every need without fail without the need for human intervention. It is a fixed point with an accelerating approach vector.
It has never been a 'feature' of capitalism because it happened and happens in all economic structures, and capitalism will die out without jobs to create capital, as the state will then have to provide capital (e.g. food) for their citizens.
1. "Has never been a feature of capitalism" - yes it is and has always, as you don't find many advances in capital equipment in socialistic countries. 2. "Capitalism will die out without jobs to create capital" What does that even mean? Are 3. "The state will then have to provide food for the citizens"' What? So capitalism "dies out" and producers are just not making anything? Or is it that producers are making stuff, but no one can buy it because of a lack of jobs? Whatever, you make no sense.
I always think about how all these jobs we see today one day will be done by machines, everything from dentists, McDonald’s cashier, to the guys who change your oil. The only jobs that humans will have will be corporate or high level position jobs that require decision making for a company. One day
This is nonsense. Progress is not going to be some gentle slope up to a nice steady plateau. AI will go from where it is now to more intelligent than us in what'll feel to us like an instant. It's on an exponential curve.
Let everyday bring you a new challenge? Really? What about people that are not very intelligent and have to rely on jobs that are easily automatable? This is terrible and terrifying, unless we restructure dramatically unemployment rates will rise drastically.
There needs to be a paradigm shift in the way we think about work. When computers displace humans, unemployed people should have all their basic needs covered.
This. But who decides what is a basic need? Food, shelter and clothing are obvious but beyond? Public transport, internet access, a mobile phone, are those basics or luxuries? And what about medical treatments? Where's the line of what is basic and what is not. Those are unanswered ethical questions and we have to sort them out. And yet I doubt we'll have to, cause in reality greed will triumph as it always does. And we will have societies divided by the insanely rich and the hopeless poor.
Nathan You can become educated as much as is possible for you personally, and I know of many people you wouldn't call conventionally intelligent that do have a rather good education. But people have limits, I'm sorry you don't see it that way. Be it genetics or circumstance, not everyone will be able to reach university degree education that requires you to use your creativity daily (which is mainly only engineering and science anyway). I am sorry but this talk is fundamentally flawed in that it lacks compassion for fellow humans. The guy delivering the talk won't have any problems in his future, because he is responsible for increasing machine intelligence.
Machines would definitely get smarter than humans over time. It can be seen from all current developments(Self Driving Cars, Neural Link etc). Unless there are regulations in place, human would be reduced to dummies in this world, with no purpose.
@@orangejuice6266 What are you going to regulate? if the technology exists, people are going to use it. Things are going to get automated, especially if it's cheaper. Companies won't want regulations giving them more expensive and less performant results (aka human work instead of machine work)
If humans already having some “leisure time” comes up with weird ideas imagine someone not working. The amount of walking psychos will not be enough :v
If the machine could use algorithm to grade essay, couldn't it be engineered to create the copy for the marketing campaign? with input of certain parameters?
What happens when you connect the machines together though something like the internet that allows them to pool knowledge and figure out how to complete new and unique task
Was trying to figure out which jobs AI won't automate. That's when he said copywriting, which I do and was looking for an alternative career. Now I understand nothing is really out of reach of AI
I feel like people don t quite get how different the world will be if so much of the population isnt working. Who are they writing advertisements to and doing the other jobs they claim will be left when no one else has jobs or could buy anything. Driving to work in a world where you are only one of the few able to, without some completely different system, would be quite a challenge considering the starving masses you would have to make it through.
POLLUTION , POLLUTION, POLLUTION!! Robots do make mistakes and break down. PLEASE FOCUS ON MAKING HEALTHIER LIFESTYLE AND BETTER EDUCATION FOR CHILDREN
Yikes, I came to think about how machine learning will move into a higher abstraction level where algorithms use already gathered machine knowledge and combine it to handle more general and novel tasks. So instead of a flattening of the exponential curve in the video it will then continue to accelerate! Just as Ray Kurzweil has predicted with his Law of Accelerating Returns. We then definitely will need something like a universal basic income pretty soon.
Think it's interesting how his graph shows the beginnings of an exponential curve but then for some reason levels off. Think he is vastly underestimating what machines will be able to do in the not so far future.
Don't expect machines to replace you anytime soon. Most people are really bad at maintaining machinery. First of all, there's really no "do-all" machine. You'd need to purchase a machine for each task, which is not cheap. Then there's maintenance, which is not going to be cheap either. Add in that they're also bad at forking up the money to replace malfunctioning parts, I wouldn't say that machinery would be more profitable than the average worker. If machinery was able to replace employees, all businesses would have done it by now. The reason they didn't is because most businesses don't want to fork over that kind of money or take that kind of risk.
Get rid of minimum wage. Get rid of welfare. Get rid of social security. Increase taxes on businesses/producers. Implement UBI. Relax as automation gradually takes over and humanity is freed to do what they please.
The automation of many governmental roles is key. The current lumbering monster that is government as we know it today won't just roll over and die though, unfortunately. (The current governments require employment of a growing proportion of the population in order to hide what would otherwise be unemployment figures) Government has a vested interest for its own survival at the expense of the general population. It will be hard for humanity to wean itself off of the present governmental model, but, eventually, worthwhile.
+Spiritus Not to mention the insane amounts of money that is wasted by governments on a daily basis. Imagine if government departments switched to open source software instead of paying ridiculous licensing costs for proprietary software. That is just one example of millions saved. Government just wastes money to help keep people in jobs when it should be the opposite approach that is needed.
Someone made an algorithm that was able to match the grades of essays given by the teachers? Well that's impressive.. especially seeing as different teachers tend to grade the same paper differently. There was an experiment in Denmark (in 2012), in which two journalist-trainees wrote an essay, that (along with essays written by highschool students) were graded by twenty different teachers. The teachers were unaware of these circumstances and the essays were graded fairly, alongside other anonymous essays handed in by students. The journalist-trainees recieved everything from the highest grade, to some of the lowest grades - all depending on the teacher who graded the essay. This sparked a debate about how these kind of tests weren't completely objective, in contrast to tests given in math, physics and other natural sciences.
Audits will never be done completely by machine, some automation of grunt work but the ability to apply critical thinking to complex issues and business models are beyond what any machine can do within the next 50 years
@@roganjoshkrishna2950 What's your source? The most I can think of is GPT-3, but that's just a language model. There's no reasoning behind it, it just knows how to create and complete coherent text
+Zebarbas the alternative is to move away from labor intensive jobs and instead focus on computationally expensive jobs, like lawyers, programmers, doctors, etc. and even creative jobs, things that computers cannot easily replace.
I think what the world governments need to do is to allocate a basic salary for all the citizens or households that can be sufficient for surviving a good life , and let the AI do most ( not all ) jobs that people are doing to earn that salary. That is the most ideal way that we can solve all the productivity and surviving problems. And the people will have more room to improve their skills and abilities in areas where they really enjoy rather than have to work to survive. ( People who have those special abilities of course will earn more money accordingly) Another benefit of this for the governments is that it would prevent the anarchy and creates more cooperative citizens)
Due to advances in ML, this content is out of date and no longer accurate. But it’s amazing to see how much has changed in such a short period of time.
How can a computer grade an essay (eg: english literature). How does a computer recognize ground-breaking creative writing? Or, innovative, outside-the-box thinking...?
I was thinking the same thing. If a computer can accurately grade essays, it should be able to handle complex tasks. That or teachers are terrible at grading and focus more on vocabulary, sentence structure, and whether or not they originally agreed with the thesis than logic.
"Humans can tackle novel situations..." Have you met humans? We ignore the growing environmental catastrophes of our world, we persist in neurotic emotional patterns, our artwork is mostly overwhelmingly derivative, and we get flustered in almost any new environment. Computers won't have to be particularly good to be better than us, or more cost-efficient.
He's saying that Robots are incapable of tackling novel challenges like humans can. We are instinctively able to see problems and solve them in our day to day life. It's instinctual. You are talking about bigger problems that are VERY hard to solve for even a collective of human beings. Novel situations means day to day....
Good point, if they have enough data to sort our the methodology /pattern of human decision making and problem solving. One day it will be able to do it, maybe in the far future but it's just a matter of time.
not if you revamp the '*world-money-societal-system*' instead of working for *profit. financial gain*, choose out of passion, enjoyment, morale enhancing, *gain fulfilment* from the *task, itself*
It's not a long step from simple repetition, to then combination of ideas and consequently creativity. Creativity isn't iherent to humans, and machines may eventualy learn creativity. The truth is we are no good in new situations eitheir, we are good in identificating patterns (in new situations) and implementing patterns (when familiarazed with the new situation).
So, the potential jobs of the future could be marketers and advertisers? Basically, continuing the consumption cycle by selling things to people with no jobs because of automation and no money because of no jobs... sounds legit.
Most of the jobs that will be "lost" to AI is absolutely miserable anyway, and huge part of those jobs don't even have a purpose. Let's be real to ourselves.
I also do agree with you and wonder why those jobs weren't automated. Instead of importing illegal immigrants, wouldn't it be better to automate the most dangerous and dirty jobs and only bring in people with a higher specialization?
Only if everyone is a mediocre like you. I, for iinstance, would focus on literature, arts, my family and spirituality. Others, would be focused on exploring, researching... the options are limitless.
@Mark Dudley I will say that there are machines that help with the surgery. I don't actually see fucking robots walking around in the hospital. There is a podcast that elon musk was on that u probably seen that could hopefully fix any issue that may arise in the future.
Machines can grade faster, but they can't teach like humans do. I don't think teaching will be automated, because learning is so much more than just classifying works/children. It's about having an open conversation with young people and inspiring them to be curious. Theres no formula in trying to get someone understand something
But the thing is most teachers do teach like robots without trying to inspire curiosity. The info is just vomited out and we have to memorize it(like robots)
In a very short time machines will probably be able to recognize and effectively react to thousands of more refined situations and scenarios than human teachers are able to react to (and as someone already pointed out, as a machine learners a new pattern, every machine will become aware of that new scenario and be able to react to it immediately). In addition, machines will be able to interact with learners on a one-on-one basis as needed. The bottom line is that machine will probably be far superior on helping humans evolve desirable human traits than humans.
kerpeleen uguu There’s many places in the world like Asia that don’t teach you to be curious. They teach everyone the concepts and expect them to know. If they don’t know, they teach them again. If the child still can’t catch up, they aren’t cut out for it and are left behind. This is the same region that produces so many high IQ people. Teaching is basic.
At this stage there is already enough material present in the form of books,PDF, videos(internet)...etc such that you won't need human guidance ever. Unless it's an emergency situation.
This is like saying everyone will die. The more important question is when. I don't want people to predict 50 years from now, nor 20 years from now. I want people to predict next year or 4 weeks from now. I've heard so many people talk hyperbole since the 1950's, yet tangible economic benefits are little.
Machines won't be able to replace human workers in the fields of artistic expression and social services. So fields in creative writing, music, or teaching cannot be mimicked as they require the human touch and intimacy.
+JJ Larson But can they illicit emotion by singing it? In a live performance humans sing with the effect in bringing out various emotions. In teaching humans can recognize and respond to human emotions to manage behavioral issues and meeting children's needs.
+Christian Gonzales Not yet but as machines continually get more advanced who knows what other "uniquely human" traits and behaviors they will be able to replicate.
Even in cases of things like marketing campaigns, most of the current work done will be done by computers and humans will simply do the final touches. Don't believe me, see the know trailer for Morgan, they had Watson do most of the leg work and just had a few people put on the final touches.
The things he cited will help create tools for those with those jobs but not replace them. There are many jobs that will be eliminated with advances in technology. Right now for manufacturing humans are still cheaper for most jobs. In the US a lot of manufactured products are made over seas. When robotic manufacturing is cheap enough the products will be made in the US again.
The more I see these videos the more I convince myself that nobody knows which jobs machines will not take from us
Leo Vega just imagine all jobs on earth right and there’s your answer
I feel exactly the same...
Concept artists are losing their jobs soon, sad life we live
@@richie1589 the demand is going to significantly decrease and won't be as in demand other than high expertise, same going to apply to computer programming and other jobs, soo.. ai of our current era is going to be more important for independent users to create products, either physical, comic/animation, games, mostly areas of entertainment that can satisfy or internal desires. so fundamentally any designer/artist will have to be there own freelancer/brand name if they truly want to succeed during the advancements of ai.
All art and information jobs
I think this talk needed to be much longer and more detailed.
Agreed. With all the previous articles, talks, etc. that have been published regarding the future of AI, this video brought absolutely nothing new to the discussion. Total fluff.
check out 'human's need not apply' by CGPgrey if you're interested in this stuff.
+Yijuwarp It's a good video but at the end of the day, Grey is not an expert and it shows.
Penny Lane
Yes, you're right, but does it matter :)
Yijuwarp Yes, because his predictions are somewhat naive extrapolations of the present and if you're bold enough to talk about the future, that's a problem. For a lot of what he says, this means nothing but maybe an adjusted time frame but I remember cringing a lot while watching that video. I'd have to watch it again to go into more detail and I'm not sure this is the right place for such an essay in the first place.
What he's really saying is that as time goes on the repetitive jobs at the bottom will be taken over by machines and even the entry-level jobs for humans will all require advanced degrees. So we're going to have to develop some kind of "Universal Basic Income" or half the population starves.
universal basic income might happen in first world countries but not in underdeveloped or poor countries so yeah, those people are dead
@Пиво и приколы Can you just google the plot?
The problem with that is who pays for UBI?
@@taylorsmith9629 Black people
@@taylorsmith9629 Taxes. the way to pay Ubi is by limiting the costs of essentials and making luxery products expensive.
say you want to go out to buy an expensive PC instead of a cheaper option that lets you do all you need to do right. The expensive PC parts would be 6-7x as expensive as right now due to Taxation that happens to fund the UBI.
Besides that you'd also see larger taxes on people & company's. because everyone gets the UBI even if you earn billions you'd still get the Ubi so you can pay for all essentials. everything else you earn will be extra so this can be taxed a lot harsher then we tax currently. One of the major issues with implementing Ubi systems though is that before you can you need to have regulation laws about Energy,gas & rent/mortage prices. In that they are not allowed to exceed certain threshold so that people with UBI can still all use them.
It's a system that can very well be applied in current day and age but it requires major regulation changes right now.
Education too often focuses what computers do too easily, mathematics and recall of input data. It is almost like people are trained to be replaced instead of being irreplaceable.
John O'Neill: You made a good point man. Western education started in Prussia, when they trained the working class in obedience and dumbed-down learning, to make obedient, patient drudges to work as soldiers and factory workers standing by machines. How easy it is to replace these human robots with AI robots. So this is another important reason to start teaching humans to learn to be creative, autonomous, original, and disobedient...
@@rossmilburn7838 you just put pure gold out there man!! Appreciate that.
Schools are robot factories.
Nop. Educaction is focused on what is productive, and machines are made to do what is productive. If you shift the curriculum to liberal arts, then the world will become idiocracy.
@@rajinfootonchuriquen Nobody gets paid the big bucks to spell check, add a couple numbers or recall the capitol city of each state. Those things are effortlessly done by inexpensive computers and should not be the cornerstone of an education system today. In 1900 that did make sense. Creativity is way more important now if you are building homes or inventing the next wonder gizmo.
So the benefit we see from machines for humans is "Keep looking for new challenges, always be in stress"
Supply and demand is the king
@@KushG420 many times demand is artificially created...just look around you...
they better pay good for the productivity gained
does a new challenge always have to mean stress? at work I often feel excited tackling a new problem and solving it, but stress is pretty rare
@@HeraldOD Creating Algorithms will someday make me a cyborg😀. Point is we now we must run but not when to rest
robots will soon be doing TED talks....oh wait, they already are
The jobs we'll lose: jobs that poor people work
The jobs we won't lose: jobs that poor people can't afford the degrees for
This guy is an embarrassment to any kind of pro-automation movement
That's why free education is so important. We are wasting human capital if smart poor people aren't able to contribute their full potential due to a lack of money and connections.
Sadly also: the jobs most mentally poor people cannot perform even with the highest amounts of effort… will likely stay another decade
If it's any consolation, it looks like white collar jobs are more under threat than the trades
Learning is to an extent democratized through youtube and such platforms, just not enough.
The assumption that some jobs cannot be automated feels totally arbitrary. Humans are machines too, we are just biological machines.
There is no reason to assume that mechanical/digital machines cannot do, what we do. It's just that CURRENT machines cannot do all the tasks.
The more interesting question is: Do we want them to do all of our jobs? Especially regarding economy as well as goals like self-fulfillment.
Unfortunately I agree 100% with you
They can but it won't happen in the near or even intermediate future. AI is a disruptor but not yet on that level.
Traditional machines need humans to explicitely code their algorithms, and that works for easily describeable repetitive tasks. Like building cars in a factory. But some repetitive tasks can't be easily described, like recognizing handwritten digits. So you use a fundamentally different concept, you feed the AI with massive amounts of data and it figures out it's own algorithm. That's a revolutionairy new step that will shape the 21st century for many decades to come.
To take it a step further and make AI's that can do things without being either explicitely programmed or trained with massive amounts of applicable data requires yet anothet revolutionairy advancement like the one described previously. It's not simply a logical continuation you can expect with improving training algorithms or hardware.
Uh he mentioned doctors and lawyers jobs as ones that will be impacted. Those aren’t typical blue collar jobs which means a education isn’t necessarily going to save you. I think he was alluding to humans needing to be more creative or think outside the box. Those that are gifted in that way may have a niche in the market the rest are out of luck.
Humans are not "biological machines". To this day no one knows how consciousness is actually generated in the brain because it isn't. AI may replace humans in cognitive functions but it's never going to be conscious and experience emotions.
If they can make the world a more fair place then go ahead and automate economics. I just don't think the people in power will let it happen
This robot is so lifelike.I look forward to more robot ted talks.
As Anthony quoted the example of using machine learning to diagnose an eye disease, it will not be wiping out the job of an eye specialist rather it will be aiding to his diagnose process.
Yes. I can see "machine assistants" but not "machine doctors".
Why?
Because People will never accept a machine giving "the bad news".
Also this lecture has a fundamental flaw that it doesn't see the potential for some kind of transhumanism and technological and AI singularity.
"Because People will never accept a machine giving "the bad news". "
Disagree completely, in fact I prefer a machine, and predictions like this are worthless anyway, progress always impose itself whether you like it or not, adapt.
"Also this lecture has a fundamental flaw that it doesn't see the potential for some kind of transhumanism and technological and AI singularity."
Exactly what I was thinking, that graph was a joke.
I wish I remember the name of the theory that elaborates on why humans are so bad at predicting huge paradigmatic shifts or catastrophes
Is the doctor a doctor if his job is just to give the bad news?
Adrian Galilea Why did you attribute "people" to yourself (even tho it's plural). I can just say that I don't want a medical AI and by nature of set theory you can't disagree with my assertion, until you convince me (and others with this belief) that we should embrace an artificial doctor.
Nivesh Proag Obviously no. A physician or "doctor" is an individual who practices medicine. Medicine in broad terms is a science that deals in finding the best way to cure or/and prevent diseases. This methodology involves other sciences like economics, pharmacology, sociology and psychology, physics and many more.
Nivesh Proag You really should work on your personal issues. Bye.
*All* jobs have the potential to be automated at one point, no matter how complex. It's only a matter of time before machines catch up to us in tackling "novel situations" too.
6 years later and art, one of the most intricate and unique aspects to the human experience is being automated.
@@NormanTiner honestly sad. I hope they ban it since it is using other artists work as information without permission
@@DONTTOUCHTHEGRASSIMALLERGIC I hope they don't ban it. You are delaying the process of human achievement
Artificial General Intelligence once innovated will render this entire Ted talk mute.
Not military, such as infantry.
Nice talk. Except the optimistic conclusion that we can still do things machines can't - is umm... rather shortsighted.
Camper Josh give some points to support your opinion, otherwise your response would come across as emotionally driven juvenile banter
But he's right. AI and robotics is still soooooo far away from what humans can accomplish. There are so many complicated facets of our brain and composition that AI may never compete with. But he's right, for now and the foreseeable future, AI is confined to doing manual labor that can be broken up into pieces.
Indie Birdie yes but tech is moving faster then ever robots used to be unable to walk up stairs just 13 years ago now they can open doors carry coffee do your taxes drive a plane and that tech will double in the next 13 years
loool theyre getting good at making art, music, poetry, buisness strategies, marketing and a whole whost of novel creative endeavours now, I think he underestimated the machines.
I was looking for this comment. We are going to be wiped out in the next ten years. It’s going to be like a sci-fi movie. Insane.
I predicted this. I deserve to get famous but I'm not
Edit: the comment above mine has 4 likes, and the comment below mine has 3 likes, while my comment has 0 likes 🤣🤣🤡
I dunno…. Music? No two songwriters write the same.
No two composers compose the same.
Computers are all built the exact same way.
There will cease to be any individuality in music
@@draguOdoT as we speak Writers Guild of America is having a strike which is an affect of A.I
Gosh, TED's community seems to become more rampant with individuals who are just plain ignorant. Instead of saying "meh" or condemning the content, add to it, give your opinion and have someone challenge it. We're here to learn, understand and adapt. Come on guys, grow up.
what is grow up?
+Legit Loser idk
We need to start our transition now and intelligently. Theoretically, making things automated should be fantastic for our society, but because of how we build it, it will cause chaos.
How are we supposed to start the transition?
I totally agree with you. We don’t have a plan, we’re just innovating and innovating. We’ll innovate ourself out of existence. But what this will require is cooperation. And currently companies, ceos, politicians, countries, are not willing to cooperate. They all want to use ai to benefit themselves.
It doesn't matter if we lose some jobs to machines, this has always been a feature of capitalism. Economic progress comes from the destruction of jobs, labor is then reallocated to where is is most valuable.
A hundred years ago 40% of the workforce was in agricultural jobs, but as time progressed and more efficient machines were created, that figure has dropped to about 2%.
Which came as we made an upshift in many other industries - mostly shipping, manufacture, and sales. Those jobs are next to go.
Our basic needs are finite as is our lifespan. As we amass information and technological sophistication, very soon we will be able to provide for every need without fail without the need for human intervention. It is a fixed point with an accelerating approach vector.
It has never been a 'feature' of capitalism because it happened and happens in all economic structures, and capitalism will die out without jobs to create capital, as the state will then have to provide capital (e.g. food) for their citizens.
1. "Has never been a feature of capitalism"
- yes it is and has always, as you don't find many advances in capital equipment in socialistic countries.
2. "Capitalism will die out without jobs to create capital"
What does that even mean? Are
3. "The state will then have to provide food for the citizens"'
What? So capitalism "dies out" and producers are just not making anything? Or is it that producers are making stuff, but no one can buy it because of a lack of jobs? Whatever, you make no sense.
+YoYoYonnY dude... You're saying automation STOPS production...
The whole point is to eliminate the need for jobs. I can't believe the idiots calling automation bad for the economy. It's literally for the economy
I always think about how all these jobs we see today one day will be done by machines, everything from dentists, McDonald’s cashier, to the guys who change your oil. The only jobs that humans will have will be corporate or high level position jobs that require decision making for a company. One day
@@SimonTmte they’re so expensive and drive over a puddle and u fry the electronic engine
This is nonsense. Progress is not going to be some gentle slope up to a nice steady plateau. AI will go from where it is now to more intelligent than us in what'll feel to us like an instant. It's on an exponential curve.
Have you seen the movie, The Matrix?
I was going to say...
💯 I don’t understand how people can’t get this!!
Let everyday bring you a new challenge? Really? What about people that are not very intelligent and have to rely on jobs that are easily automatable?
This is terrible and terrifying, unless we restructure dramatically unemployment rates will rise drastically.
There needs to be a paradigm shift in the way we think about work. When computers displace humans, unemployed people should have all their basic needs covered.
Don't stay unintelligent is the solution.
This. But who decides what is a basic need? Food, shelter and clothing are obvious but beyond? Public transport, internet access, a mobile phone, are those basics or luxuries? And what about medical treatments? Where's the line of what is basic and what is not. Those are unanswered ethical questions and we have to sort them out. And yet I doubt we'll have to, cause in reality greed will triumph as it always does. And we will have societies divided by the insanely rich and the hopeless poor.
Basic Income Guarantee. See my above post.
Nathan
You can become educated as much as is possible for you personally, and I know of many people you wouldn't call conventionally intelligent that do have a rather good education. But people have limits, I'm sorry you don't see it that way. Be it genetics or circumstance, not everyone will be able to reach university degree education that requires you to use your creativity daily (which is mainly only engineering and science anyway).
I am sorry but this talk is fundamentally flawed in that it lacks compassion for fellow humans. The guy delivering the talk won't have any problems in his future, because he is responsible for increasing machine intelligence.
Machines would definitely get smarter than humans over time. It can be seen from all current developments(Self Driving Cars, Neural Link etc). Unless there are regulations in place, human would be reduced to dummies in this world, with no purpose.
That's why we need regulations.
@@orangejuice6266 What are you going to regulate? if the technology exists, people are going to use it. Things are going to get automated, especially if it's cheaper. Companies won't want regulations giving them more expensive and less performant results (aka human work instead of machine work)
well... this didn't age well
jobs are for machines, life is for humans
You're looking at all wrong. Imagine a world with no need for employment or economics.
Life can be about creating art and enjoying it instead of jobs making others own people
If humans already having some “leisure time” comes up with weird ideas imagine someone not working. The amount of walking psychos will not be enough :v
Yep no money great
without a job you can't sustain your life :/
When singularity arises, there will be almost no limits to what machines can do. Humans will have very limited options for work.
We might cease to exist afterwards because ASI might find human useless and root cause of many problems
The first profession will also be the last.
you sure about that? haven't you seen the hyperrealistic fuckdolls?
When you can clone the girl of your dreams without her permission, whether IRL or in VR, the first profession will no longer exist.
***** What are you talking about? Just because you can grow a prostitute in a test tube doesn't make her not a prostitute. Clones are people too.
On this topic, I recommend the book “Saturn's Children” by Charlie Stross.
Allen Linnen, Jr. dude you cloning the physical part not the fkin brain 😂
If the machine could use algorithm to grade essay, couldn't it be engineered to create the copy for the marketing campaign? with input of certain parameters?
What happens when you connect the machines together though something like the internet that allows them to pool knowledge and figure out how to complete new and unique task
Was trying to figure out which jobs AI won't automate. That's when he said copywriting, which I do and was looking for an alternative career. Now I understand nothing is really out of reach of AI
All the best man, let me know if you need help in career path
Going through the same thing. I've just finished my BA in translation, and i'm starting to get demotivated due to the rise of chatgpt
This speech has, unfortunately, become obsolete. The tasks no longer have to be frequent low-volume.
"Humans can tackle novel situations"
Saw that in this covid pandemic !!!
Is this sarcastic or are you really appreciating ?😅
This did not age well at all, ChatGPT is writing marketing campaigns as we speak.
I feel like people don t quite get how different the world will be if so much of the population isnt working. Who are they writing advertisements to and doing the other jobs they claim will be left when no one else has jobs or could buy anything. Driving to work in a world where you are only one of the few able to, without some completely different system, would be quite a challenge considering the starving masses you would have to make it through.
machines should be there for us to work less harder and not for us to work less.
POLLUTION , POLLUTION, POLLUTION!!
Robots do make mistakes and break down.
PLEASE FOCUS ON MAKING HEALTHIER LIFESTYLE AND BETTER EDUCATION FOR CHILDREN
what a good talk, considering it was delivered by machine
Give jobs to machines and life to humans.
Thats the way its going to be.
Lol since when were people with money and power ever concerned about our lives? It ain't gonna be this way for sure
Bye bye to my dream to become a driver instructor.
My artist job too
Surely with enough data and aggregated learning, there comes s point where there are no novel situations.
This talk in a nutshell: "Machines currently have this limitation, so they will always have this limitation."
robots should be owned by common people not companies, that way any job that the robot performs payment will go to the owner of the robot
Alejandro Gutiérrez this ... is actually genius
First of all Yahli is so cute.
Yikes, I came to think about how machine learning will move into a higher abstraction level where algorithms use already gathered machine knowledge and combine it to handle more general and novel tasks. So instead of a flattening of the exponential curve in the video it will then continue to accelerate! Just as Ray Kurzweil has predicted with his Law of Accelerating Returns. We then definitely will need something like a universal basic income pretty soon.
Think it's interesting how his graph shows the beginnings of an exponential curve but then for some reason levels off. Think he is vastly underestimating what machines will be able to do in the not so far future.
This
Funny he mentions copywriters. ChatGPT can now replace a copywriter.
Don't expect machines to replace you anytime soon. Most people are really bad at maintaining machinery. First of all, there's really no "do-all" machine. You'd need to purchase a machine for each task, which is not cheap. Then there's maintenance, which is not going to be cheap either. Add in that they're also bad at forking up the money to replace malfunctioning parts, I wouldn't say that machinery would be more profitable than the average worker.
If machinery was able to replace employees, all businesses would have done it by now. The reason they didn't is because most businesses don't want to fork over that kind of money or take that kind of risk.
There's reasons why, but u only mentioned one. It'll happen as soon as the great reset is over
Machines can excel at frequent, high volumes tasks. For us humans, let everyday usher in a new challenging task.
Get rid of minimum wage. Get rid of welfare. Get rid of social security. Increase taxes on businesses/producers. Implement UBI. Relax as automation gradually takes over and humanity is freed to do what they please.
and cute.
Get rid of governments!
The automation of many governmental roles is key. The current lumbering monster that is government as we know it today won't just roll over and die though, unfortunately. (The current governments require employment of a growing proportion of the population in order to hide what would otherwise be unemployment figures) Government has a vested interest for its own survival at the expense of the general population. It will be hard for humanity to wean itself off of the present governmental model, but, eventually, worthwhile.
+Spiritus Not to mention the insane amounts of money that is wasted by governments on a daily basis. Imagine if government departments switched to open source software instead of paying ridiculous licensing costs for proprietary software. That is just one example of millions saved. Government just wastes money to help keep people in jobs when it should be the opposite approach that is needed.
bs. Im not gonna let myself be ruled by a computer
I find cgp grey's discussion of this topic much more informative and realistic.
Yup. "Humans need not apply" on youtube. Covers pretty much everything on it.
All these people saying they cant wait for machines to do all our jobs... ever watch the movie WALL-E?
Chatgpt brought me here
As a person who come from the future. I can confirm Ai will replace us.
Someone made an algorithm that was able to match the grades of essays given by the teachers? Well that's impressive.. especially seeing as different teachers tend to grade the same paper differently.
There was an experiment in Denmark (in 2012), in which two journalist-trainees wrote an essay, that (along with essays written by highschool students) were graded by twenty different teachers. The teachers were unaware of these circumstances and the essays were graded fairly, alongside other anonymous essays handed in by students. The journalist-trainees recieved everything from the highest grade, to some of the lowest grades - all depending on the teacher who graded the essay. This sparked a debate about how these kind of tests weren't completely objective, in contrast to tests given in math, physics and other natural sciences.
Audits will never be done completely by machine, some automation of grunt work but the ability to apply critical thinking to complex issues and business models are beyond what any machine can do within the next 50 years
Yeah, it's taken 5 years and they're already designing AI than can approach human levels of general intelligence
@@roganjoshkrishna2950 What's your source? The most I can think of is GPT-3, but that's just a language model. There's no reasoning behind it, it just knows how to create and complete coherent text
and then we had ChatGPT write us code
Yes
*I literally just watched the matrix for the first time and now i'm scared*
and there's a good chance we are already in it.
*LOL!*
Maybe someday we'll all be managers, giving directions to AIs and overseeing them.
Itll probably be the other way around, the way things r going
I love this I hope all jobs can be taken so we are all equal.
I'd liked to see a robot replace makeup artists, both beauty and special effects artists.
+Zebarbas the alternative is to move away from labor intensive jobs and instead focus on computationally expensive jobs, like lawyers, programmers, doctors, etc. and even creative jobs, things that computers cannot easily replace.
What would happen:
AI takes over > If you're unlucky you get replaced by an AI > Lose your job > In debt > Eviction > Starvation > Death
I think what the world governments need to do is to allocate a basic salary for all the citizens or households that can be sufficient for surviving a good life , and let the AI do most ( not all ) jobs that people are doing to earn that salary. That is the most ideal way that we can solve all the productivity and surviving problems. And the people will have more room to improve their skills and abilities in areas where they really enjoy rather than have to work to survive. ( People who have those special abilities of course will earn more money accordingly) Another benefit of this for the governments is that it would prevent the anarchy and creates more cooperative citizens)
Due to advances in ML, this content is out of date and no longer accurate. But it’s amazing to see how much has changed in such a short period of time.
How can a computer grade an essay (eg: english literature). How does a computer recognize ground-breaking creative writing? Or, innovative, outside-the-box thinking...?
I was thinking the same thing. If a computer can accurately grade essays, it should be able to handle complex tasks. That or teachers are terrible at grading and focus more on vocabulary, sentence structure, and whether or not they originally agreed with the thesis than logic.
All sentences should finish with the word "yet".
Things are moving so fast, I'm hesitant about anything that's more than a few months old.
"Humans can tackle novel situations..." Have you met humans? We ignore the growing environmental catastrophes of our world, we persist in neurotic emotional patterns, our artwork is mostly overwhelmingly derivative, and we get flustered in almost any new environment. Computers won't have to be particularly good to be better than us, or more cost-efficient.
He's saying that Robots are incapable of tackling novel challenges like humans can. We are instinctively able to see problems and solve them in our day to day life. It's instinctual. You are talking about bigger problems that are VERY hard to solve for even a collective of human beings. Novel situations means day to day....
Well... I guess that all just flew out the window...
This is true so long as machines don't learn to deal with novel situations. 😨
Good point, if they have enough data to sort our the methodology /pattern of human decision making and problem solving. One day it will be able to do it, maybe in the far future but it's just a matter of time.
When AI is perfected we won't have anything.
We already have reinforcement learning now for novel situations
People who argue that machines won't be able to automate task X are either lying or don't understand technology.
This is dated. In 2023, AI can already do the bulk of work for marketing campaigns.
Breaking news: a video from 2016 is dated. I repeat: the video is dated. This isn't a drill.
@@notDundi This but unironically
this will create a hunger games type society. small amount of people with everything, most people with nothing
I will be Josh. if there was someone named Josh
This is today, but I believe The Earth is slowly going to be like German, England
not if you revamp the '*world-money-societal-system*' instead of working for *profit. financial gain*, choose out of passion, enjoyment, morale enhancing, *gain fulfilment* from the *task, itself*
Sorry for being blunt but you either don't read enough or you're quite young if Hunger Games is the closest dystopia that comes to mind.
Dude. You're calling automaton bad for society.... Automation is FOR US you clueless twit
It's not a long step from simple repetition, to then combination of ideas and consequently creativity. Creativity isn't iherent to humans, and machines may eventualy learn creativity. The truth is we are no good in new situations eitheir, we are good in identificating patterns (in new situations) and implementing patterns (when familiarazed with the new situation).
Machines will give people the leisure to take psychedelics and study zen and Vedanta.
yeah quantum computers can grow arms and legs because they work by manipulating atomic structures (?)
i like working actually.
Who will afford machines? Will the government hand them out?
So, the potential jobs of the future could be marketers and advertisers? Basically, continuing the consumption cycle by selling things to people with no jobs because of automation and no money because of no jobs... sounds legit.
I`m a naval engineer. I go onboard merchand ships and do maintanaince work while sailing. Let s see a machine do that.
good point, you always need people who can fix the machines. Self repairing mechanics is a thing tho.
Most of the jobs that will be "lost" to AI is absolutely miserable anyway, and huge part of those jobs don't even have a purpose. Let's be real to ourselves.
I also do agree with you and wonder why those jobs weren't automated. Instead of importing illegal immigrants, wouldn't it be better to automate the most dangerous and dirty jobs and only bring in people with a higher specialization?
They beat starvation and forever homelessness
@@Art_Svet I’m not an illegal immigrant and all I can work is fast food
Most of us will be made redundant. Just gimme my welfare check. LOL
And there goes society........
Ace1000ks1975 we judged them and they were ahead all along hahaha
Only if everyone is a mediocre like you. I, for iinstance, would focus on literature, arts, my family and spirituality. Others, would be focused on exploring, researching... the options are limitless.
@@daryehl5910 I am not mediocre, I am a electrical engineer. Yes, I am lazy, I like to automate everything, and I will keep automating jobs away.
Well, doctor's are always needed.
Agreed. Medicine is more than diagnosis.
Doreshka What about nurses?
@Mark Dudley I will say that there are machines that help with the surgery. I don't actually see fucking robots walking around in the hospital. There is a podcast that elon musk was on that u probably seen that could hopefully fix any issue that may arise in the future.
This did not age well lol
It's going to be a hackers playground.
Humans need not apply. Thank God Grey got there first. Otherwise that video would never be made.
In other words, the gap between the rich and the poor will grow tremendously.
Machines can grade faster, but they can't teach like humans do. I don't think teaching will be automated, because learning is so much more than just classifying works/children. It's about having an open conversation with young people and inspiring them to be curious. Theres no formula in trying to get someone understand something
I mean there kinda is, but consists of reading peoples mind
But the thing is most teachers do teach like robots without trying to inspire curiosity. The info is just vomited out and we have to memorize it(like robots)
In a very short time machines will probably be able to recognize and effectively react to thousands of more refined situations and scenarios than human teachers are able to react to (and as someone already pointed out, as a machine learners a new pattern, every machine will become aware of that new scenario and be able to react to it immediately). In addition, machines will be able to interact with learners on a one-on-one basis as needed. The bottom line is that machine will probably be far superior on helping humans evolve desirable human traits than humans.
kerpeleen uguu There’s many places in the world like Asia that don’t teach you to be curious. They teach everyone the concepts and expect them to know. If they don’t know, they teach them again. If the child still can’t catch up, they aren’t cut out for it and are left behind. This is the same region that produces so many high IQ people. Teaching is basic.
At this stage there is already enough material present in the form of books,PDF, videos(internet)...etc such that you won't need human guidance ever.
Unless it's an emergency situation.
This is like saying everyone will die. The more important question is when. I don't want people to predict 50 years from now, nor 20 years from now. I want people to predict next year or 4 weeks from now. I've heard so many people talk hyperbole since the 1950's, yet tangible economic benefits are little.
Well this has aged like milk…
it actually didnt
Art will survive as it is creativity at its core
There is already AI paintings I’ve seen them
lol lmao even
Aged like milk. But I predicted this would happen, I should be famous for this
This did not age well 😂😂😂
He’s right. It can make art but it’s very formatted and doesn’t have any creativity.
so every job will be lost except marketing ones?
diva no no marketing is also lost due to automation. Automatic robots are here that do shopping for you.
A UBI will have to be implemented to tackle this problem
Wait so if robots are gonna be doing all the work, who's gonna be left to buy all the stuff that they make?
PEACE!!!
&
LOVE!!!
TO ALL!!!
Time for universal basic income!
I'm glad I've had a good life
Machines won't be able to replace human workers in the fields of artistic expression and social services. So fields in creative writing, music, or teaching cannot be mimicked as they require the human touch and intimacy.
Machines can already write music that cannot be distinguished from music written by humans.
+JJ Larson But can they illicit emotion by singing it? In a live performance humans sing with the effect in bringing out various emotions. In teaching humans can recognize and respond to human emotions to manage behavioral issues and meeting children's needs.
And social robots are on the rise!
+JJ Larson Sorry about the awful grammer my phone's autocorrect is bullshit.
+Christian Gonzales Not yet but as machines continually get more advanced who knows what other "uniquely human" traits and behaviors they will be able to replicate.
"This is my niece. Her name is Yaoi."
lolololol
Ah, TED. The Nutella of misinformation.
Please elaborate.
I also request that you elaborate.
Okay so which jobs will we be losing? I'm glad I watched this at 2x speed...
in time they wil become more advanced and there will be no job left! just in due time
we will be genetically improved, so we could do some cool stuff
Legit Loser yes be genetic improved work force for the A.I.
but robots dont have emotions, so It would be more fun if they worked for us
Legit Loser A.I..........
Even in cases of things like marketing campaigns, most of the current work done will be done by computers and humans will simply do the final touches. Don't believe me, see the know trailer for Morgan, they had Watson do most of the leg work and just had a few people put on the final touches.
And so the tale of john connor begins
The things he cited will help create tools for those with those jobs but not replace them. There are many jobs that will be eliminated with advances in technology. Right now for manufacturing humans are still cheaper for most jobs. In the US a lot of manufactured products are made over seas. When robotic manufacturing is cheap enough the products will be made in the US again.
this is unsurprisingly rather out of date now
Will software engineers be replaced by robots, even though it’s a creative highly thinking field and how do I prevent myself losing a job to a robot
Yes they will, because programming languages are more structured than anything else really. Easy for an AI to learn. You can't really prevent it.