We actually have a PRIVATIZED health system, not private. The corrupt bastards lie to dupe us, calling things "private" since they know there is public backlash against privatization. Privatization is ALWAYS corruption; it is the biggest scam EVER, and is a totally different entity than regular "private" or "for profit" business. It has been done right in front of us, cloaked in lies to keep us duped. The privatization scammers get to bill the federal government ANY AMOUNT, so they bill for massive exec salaries and do constant overbilling to reap insanely high profits. Wall Street firms invest, knowing that profits are guaranteed via federal money. That is because they know that federal money can be issued in ANY AMOUNT for anything that is physically possible. They just do not want us "peasants" to know, they need to keep us duped in order to do their scams. So they lie to us constantly about "can't afford" and fearmonger about "national debt" (NOT an actual debt) and the deficit (NOT a scary thing but federal spending should be directed to those who need it and to help the economy), etc. Many war companies, many federal prisons, the detention centers, healthcare insurance, parts of the Post Office and the VA and Medicare, and more are privatized. The sociopathic money addicts intend to privatize EVERYTHING - they are working on public education (the "charter school" push, pretending that it is "school choice", disguising the privatization reality as much as they can), infrastructure, more of the VA, etc. Knowing how the scam works explains why BOTH parties lie us into wars, vote for war money and fight AGAINST real healthcare for all while lying to us to try to keep the corruption scam of the privatized ACA. (The multimillion dollar CEO salaries and billions in quarterly profits of our healthcare insurance companies do NOT come from premiums people pay, they mainly come from federal money, while the corrupt try to tell us that what we have is "private" health insurance; part of the scam is that they lie to conflate "private" and "privatized", two TOTALLY different entities.) Related companies that supply or bill through privatized companies can also grift via massive overbilling - like drug companies, military supply companies, etc. Like the Transdyne company questioned recently about billing almost $1500 for a $32 part! And some investments could be done and kept more hidden when it comes to smaller companies not on the stock market. The politicians getting rich in office do not get rich on bribes, those usually amount to relatively little compared to the increase in net worth of many politicians in office. The real money is NOT in the bribes, it is from various scams; privatization just happens to be the biggest and most pervasive one. Privatization= CORRUPTION and we must demand an END to all privatization!
@@robertsmith-williams5255 - and the corrupt bastards know this, which is why they use "private", or "public-private partnership", or now we have the privatization of public education disguised as "charter schools" and the "school choice" talking point, etc. The sociopaths also passed the TPP recently by disguising it as USMCA and saying it was "NAFTA reworked" to dupe us all. And most of the traitors in Congress voted for it - Gabbard, Pelosi, Warren, Khanna, Wasserman-Schultz and almost all regardless of party. Disgraceful.
i do wish pundits would stop referring to elective oligarchies as 'democracies.' professionals should know better. when you refer to the distrust/contempt evinced by the peoples of those 'democracies,' merely substitute 'elective oligarchy' and the alienation is natural and clear. words matter, and double-think is alive and being practiced by people who should know better.
They are academics, until there is consensus in the Political Science field about changing the terminology as such, they will continue using the term 'democracies'.
academics are the biggest stooges and lackeys of capital, they are the current day priests who's authority reigns over that which is true and that which is not true, they shamelessly use their intellectual authority on these topics to defend the status quo, not dislodge or change it, the biggest myth in the world is that people that are higher educated become socialists or lefties when the vast majority become insufferable spoiled brats who through their connections get positions of wealth and power they should never be able to obtain which is why we're in a world that's run by shitty people's coke'd up spoiled sons and daughters and it's noticeably fragile and weak. only those who go to higher education and don't get positions of power and wealth feel betrayed and only then turn to leftism, the rest are just clueless people who have generally been duped into thinking capitalism is good because lines go up, it's why there are 2 schools of economy at universities, 1 is called economics and is basically propaganda telling you how good capitalism is without explaining how it actually works and the other is called business school and there you actually learn how capitalism works and the 2 are separated as much as possible on campus to ensure the students don't talk to each other, also because people that go to business schools generally have their education paid for them by their employers and students are much older than conventional university students. Higher education is often a networking event for the rich and a scam for the middle class that scraps together all their savings to afford their children a position of prestige that will never pay off.
@@Iandrasill good points well made. i am left, because i have empathy, and understand how capitalism functions. i naively assumed other people had the same or similar degrees of empathy. it appears money trumps empathy and indeed intelligence. what to do? become like heraclitus? epicurus?
It helps to read ideas like Chomsky's Manufacturing Consent text to have a better understanding of how to interpret politician within our corporate media framework in the US. It's a pretty simple situation here. Full-blown oligarchy. Media serves their corporate owners, so do the politicians. All goes back to large power structures that largely resist any elements of populism or democratic thinking (particularly in the workplace).
Thanks guys, great yarn up. The constant Thatcher/Regan mantra of 'hate the state sector' / 'love the private sector' has contributed mightily to our decline and incapacity of public enterprise. Austerity was the driver to ruin the public sector and social ruin is the outcome.
I love Mark I really do. He has a great analytical view and it’s refreshing plus he doesn’t hold any punches. I would like to propose a counter argument. While, it is true many of the US corporations are not responsible for the health care crisis we’re under, it is also true many of these corporations are responsible for our current economic crisis. I’m going to give the summary version. If you allow big finance and corporations to operate with little to no oversight in return they will ensure their domination in the market place. Lobbying to deregulate policies, passing policies that give little to no oversight to ensure workers have no mobility, by allowing monopolies to squeeze our real competition in the marketplace, leveraging prices at your command with no competition. Incentivizing repeated bad behavior when massive policy regulations are not followed and damage the economy immensely with little to no consequence, receiving massive tax cuts, after agreeing to stimulate the economy yet resend on that agreement only to buy back your own stocks to increase your assets furthering your own private coffers. Receiving a $500 billion bail out a $800 billion bail out only to keep wages in a perpetual stagnation. A practice here in the US since 1980’s, as they use taxpayers money to enrich and bail themselves out of Financial decay. All these instances and more have starved our resources, crippled our Financial, educational, healthcare, infrastructure‘s and ultimately weaken our government’s ability to answer and respond to real crisis or problems that normally would be designed for it to handle. There is a myth that has been perpetuating in our country, for a while now like 50 years, that says government is in adequate and so the private sector has to respond to deal with the problem since government can’t handle. Yes it would seem that way but you also have to look at how the government(people) have been also bought and sold to these corporations which allows them unnecessary movement and leverage over the economy and a Undemocratic say in policy decisions that result in a desire to ensure A massive cushion to all risk-taking and any other self interest that will benefit that company while socializing their losses. Our inability to respond to the current crisis is an exacerbation of poor lack of discernment and a lack of understanding and wisdom about labor and the people who produce that labor, and a demonization of those workers as inferior. Our insatiable desire to bond human value with avarice has crippled and atrophied our response time to this viral crisis. It’s never just a black-and-white scenario there are several factors at play here. As time goes by, just like in 2007 -2008, we will discover more of these factors. I would wager we will find out that more of our repeated practices and behaviors will have a larger impact than we suspect presently. We just don’t like to be honest especially when it comes to us making mistakes. So naturally if no one find out until later you made a mistake you’re bound to repeat it. But as Mark says, there are other ways to handle this we just lack the vision and willpower to do so. In large part, because there’s a self interest that compels one to overlook or be willfully ignorant. 😂
@Anton Shields Well as far as I know he is pro BREXIT and that is probably a dumb idea for the UK. Should say I am pro BREXIT but to get the UK out of the EU.
Yes, add in that the priorities are backwards: we need a coherent healthcare system that is not controlled by special interests - a representative democracy is supposed to form and implement intelligible policies and to have contingency plans for emergencies, like this. Instead, we are thrown into the maelstrom of science-deniers. Also, one underlying cause is air and water pollution which the right has been rolling back on regulations and controls while proliferating fossil fuels usage instead of switching to green technologies. Needless to add, exotic animals and the slaughtering of animals in public settings releases their pathogens - everyone should know better! Leave the animals alone.
BLUE DOG That wouldn’t be a bad idea but I’m studying narcissistic psychology with a special interest in algorithmic behavior modification. Which is basically looking how incremental suggestions affect our behavior which eventually affects our psychology. It goes under the radar because we’ve never had algorithms suggesting things to us in mass but they’re quite effective. Economics it’s quite fascinating. And you’re exactly right. We’ve been repeating this song and dance for quite some time and the dynamic of those who cannot satiate their desire to manipulate and control. Sadly at the end of the day, it boils down to control of others as a form of motivation. And there may be other interest but they’re probably centralized to one major focus. And that’s where the narcissistic psychology steps in. The difference now is the elite through technology have a massive amount of influence than before. We use business terminology for dating and social interactions and on the surface it’s not that big of a deal. But incrementally over time it changes your behavior. But thanks for the comment. You have me thinking now. I just dont know if I have time to do it.
Of course it can. Ideas are not finite. How much raw materials is in a song that people pay to listen to? The raw material cost of a smart phone is a fraction of its value to an economy. And software has value while being completely abstract. And this will be even more true once people make the effort to recycle things like the rare earth metals etc. The problem with our economies if that we are spending too much money on billionaires... billionaires are an extremely expensive hit for any economy to have to afford, they cost billions, each. Growth doesn't have to be exploitative... the fact that it is isn't a problem with growth, it's a problem with exploitation.
I take your point about placing value in different ways and not everything is physical. And agree that the policies deployed have been favouring the top of the financial tree, so to speak, but this is what vast money printing does, you'd have to stop the cause to stop this imbalance but they wont. I don't think recycling solves the problem, from listening to commentators, it's my understanding that you have to stop consumption. I'm not a greenie by the way but believe you need to get the world populations down to really address the problem. Every country should do what it can to balance this.
Yours is the most important question that there is! Sadly, there are so many people who have never even considered that question. They have been too thoroughly indoctrinated into believing that the growth model is the vital element of the economy. I am curious to know if Mark Blythe has ever talked about a steady state economy. Do you know if he has?
39:10 the distancing orders aren’t what prevented major breakouts in Chinese cities outside Wuhan. There was a period of a couple weeks when China restricted flights out of Wuhan to other cities in China, but allowed flights out of Wuhan to cities outside China.
Great - sorry I missed this live So the key things are 1 bail out business with Cash in exchange for an equity share in the business... plough this into a sovereign wealth fund and share the proceeds with the public in the medium to long term aka Norway and Singapore? 2 re visit and redevelop the welfare state with proper healthcare, decent free education, the Green New Deal, worthwhile social safety nets.... in the medium and longer term the bail out and these services can be paid for with the compound growth in the sovereign wealth fund? 3. achieve all of the above without increasing taxes? ..... what is there not to like
It all sounds wonderful except for the part about doing it all without raising taxes. It can't be done without raising taxes because the rich people haven't enough money to pay for it all and your share of their money amounts to about 200 dollars which most people would blow on junkfood or something.
There is everything inherently wrong with the tourist industry, the airline industry, and most especially by the tax and regulation dodging cruise ship industry, if you've noticed our ever worsening climate catastrophe. This would be an excellent time to accomplish huge emissions reductions by NOT bailing out especially the last.
I know that there have been a lot of issues with inadequate supplies of medical and PPE. What about riot gear and urban combat supplies? What do want to bet that the moneyed interests have made sure they are well stocked up on the tools of suppression?
As a pretty much self education person. I have in AA degree. I believe Mark Blythe has a better handle on what is happening in world and explain s it better than anyone else I have listened to.
Thank You Gents for this great Program. Do you expect inflation before or after the Emergency? If yes, what’s your guesstimate percentage on US inflation?
Just keep the money flowing without producing anything but food, water, energy and all basic utilities. Reduce the rest of "economic" activity to zero and keep people at home. remove the money with higher inflation AFTER two years. Jobs done! We should do this anyway, to fight CO2 emissions! We will now reach or climate goals, because of the virus. We need more pandemics!
The problem with our capitalistic system is that we need to produce and work even when there is nothing that needs to be produced. The exponentially expanding market demands it. This is of course total insanity. And the reason that we are unable to actually do something useful that could save our planet. If no work needs to be done, let people do what they want. More free time is good for peoples, health, creativity and society. And good for the enviroment.
We didn't mail checks to people, it was direct deposited to your account according to last years IRS data. What you got in the mail is the thank you letter.
I'd rather get a check I'm self employed builder in the uk got screwed in 08 now this I have a lot of money tied up in a project which was close to finishing I get 0 untill june with 0 income Im not even sure if quality for that due to period of illness to say I'm angry would be and understatement
I really do worry about how economies will recover from this. Walking through my local town in the UK, it reminded me of what the place was like before Sunday Trading Laws were introduced with practically everything shut down. Most of them are luxury/leisure shops and I wonder if they will ever reopen. Honestly, who will be thinking about spending on haircuts if pubs/bars/restaurants are closed or may also never come back? The lingering fear of a contagion returning may kill off any hopes of attempts to return to 'the norm' (if that's even possible). Not only are massive leisure industries utterly gutted due to huge numbers of unemployment and wage cuts (for those receiving wage replacement payments), but supply chains are also all over the place for the foreseeable future. All of this hits the markets which in turn impacts retirement plans etc. For the moment, we seem to be managing. Assuming these wage replacement systems are actually properly implemented and the money gets to where it's needed, hardship should be in the main, avoided. I'm no economist, I just see problems everywhere...
I would like to point out something about Sweden. I think the Swedish government makes a virtue of its failings. Sweden has no emergency laws except in war time. They are trying to sort out this in the middle of the crisis, but I will take time. Until recently (last week), there was no legal mechanism to shut down elementary schools. Sweden has been at peace for 208 years and there is no preparation at any level for systemic crisis. Their only option for now is business as usual with recommendations from the state.
Mark Blyth is wrong 2008 was not a banking crisis. It was a classic move to a rentier extraction economy due to the falling rate of profit. The falling rate of profit driven by over accumulation of wealth causing rising inequality, poverty and falling demand. When capitalists cannot make profit from the real economy due to a collapse in demand, they move to fictional capital of a finacialised economy. Vol 3 of capital essentially. 2008 was not a financial crisis, it was a crisis of the real economy due to the internal contradictions of capitalism that manefested in the financial services. This is why fixing the banks was ineffective drove continuing austerity and caused the present crisis, as for example EU austerity deprived Italian hospitals of the spare capacity it needed. This is a continuation of the 2008 economic crisis.
That is true. In the computing industry there has been a march to a subscription model. A customer no longer owns the product they purchase, only lease said product until they stop paying. Many companies that lag behind in embracing this are penalized by investors. Some example catch phrases are Software as a Service, Infrastructure as a Service, Games as a Service, etc.
@@vgernyc Has there been a business solution proposed in order to get rid of this stupid model? Linux was supposed to be the alternative to Microsoft. But nearly all opensource softwares are inferior to the paid subscription ones. Companies required Windows or Macs for some reasons. If I want to own my software with no extra update or continuing subscription, how do you do it?
@@Account.for.Comment Open Source which Linux is a core part of was marketed as a free alternative. As honest and true are the intentions of those who founded this, we don't operate in a Marxist economy. Software developers also have to make money to make a living. Corporations see this software as a opportunity to lower their R&D costs yet still charge as if they made the software themselves. I remember IBM was selling us this very expensive security software to us and when my coworker looked into what makes the software work, it was all Open Source, IBM only pieced it together. VMware was sued by the Open Source community because they directly modified the source code and did not disclose their modifications and profited from it. A court declared VMware was ok to do so despite the license agreement of the software they effectively stole.
I've come to feel that if people are motivated enough , they will figure out how to circumvent or change the rules of the game to profit from it. However too much of that is like termites eating a house. Eventually the house will fall. I think Gresham's Law measures an aspect of this. Gold, Silver and digital are not immune from this.
@@vgernyc Sound like it depend on whether the judge, lawmakers and the corporation decision makers to be able to understand how technology work to change it. Thanks for your answer.
One thing both of you neglected to mention is that both China and South Korea have a much more extensive recent history with flu epidemics. In South Korea in particular, the response to MERS was widely seen as disastrous, with the country’s most prestigious hospital helping to spread the virus through lack of quarantines. This followed on the heels of years of national embarrassments with the Park Geun Hye scandal, the Sewol disaster, and so on. Long story short, South Korea has spent the last decade or more trying to recover from a series of humiliating failures of governance. The coronavirus was a disaster for which they were uniquely prepared for, and for which there was a great deal of painful lessons learned. They remain a politically divided country (President Moon Jae In still faces harsh criticism for say, refusing to ban entry to Chinese citizens earlier on), but this is vital context to explain how their response to the coronavirus.
Am a bit disturbed by Blyth’s glib dismissal of the corporate and governmental debt problem. So long as the economy keeps growing more than the debt is increasing, we are fine. This answer obscures so much. Why have major stock markets become more connected to perma low interest rates and various ongoing forms of QE than they are to economic fundamentals? Isn’t the debt tail now wagging the growth dog? And is it healthy in any objective sense to keep kicking this can down the road?
You are absolutely correct. Economic growth depends entirely on the demand side of the supply/demand equation. This means using population growth as a means of increasing demand relative to supply and this explains the neoliberal ideology of open borders (EU). National borders are a natural firebreak against pandemics. Coronavirus spread so quickly as a direct result of the human penchant for fast international/continental travel. It is a mirror image of the sudden mass movement of troops spreading the Spanish Flu pandemic at the end of WW1 (1918-21). The subsequent closing of borders (EU) is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
Here's one of the problems with bailing out the businesses. Ignoring the fact that there operating styles are questionable it is unfair on small to medium size competitors to bail them out. These firms are not asking for bailouts yet because of the way they were run. In fact when the banks were collapsing some were actually growing because they were and did make the right moves. So what happens when you save the big companies is great there's less disruption but the small and medium businesses get destroyed, as you have just guaranteed the bigger firms. This leads to all their employees getting fired instead or the firm being bought up by the big firms further monopolising them and giving them more power. What gives you the right to say the small, medium firms staff are less important than the bigger firms staff?
It's not Mark Blyth who's saying it. It's Trump's backers who are saying it. They back him, so he does as they want, and writes the rules in their favour. Think about it. All the tax rules for example are written in a way that large companies can either avoid them, or comply at really low costs. Their economies of scale doesn't translate to medium and small enterprises who are often surviving month to month, and cannot shift their assets offshore. That was done to keep corporate backers sweet. No Ruler rules alone, and behind the throne is a queue of backers holding their hands out.
@@BigHenFor All you say maybe/probably true but it's Edward who is saying this in the video 18:55 because he only sees the people who lose there jobs as a result of no bailouts. He doesn't consider the people who will lose there jobs as a result of the bailouts or medium to large companies that would of taken there place if the corporations lost there value so these medium to large businesses could buy them up cheap and grow.
The most important thing at this stage of an epidemic is to find out who has had the virus and recovered. If the antibody test identifies a small set of people who unknowingly have been sick and recovered, these need not be quarantined and can help in nursing homes, hospitals, dealing with large queues of people, protected by antibody immunity. They can donate their antibodies to the most severe cases. If there are a sizable population of these people with antibodies, they can go back to work, and start normalizing life.
I could listen to his accent for weeks, weirdly the almost gibberish English is easy to understand, but has some kind of tone/rhythm that makes it more pleasant to listen to than more common English speakers.
Really. You don't get out much do you? Mark was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and his accent is hard for you because he speaks quickly. But, Otter.ai understands him very well.
Hi from UK. Does quantitative easing increase the asset prices for the rich? Or is this a difference between the type of UK and US quantitative easing? I read the US buys back government bonds, corporate bonds and mortgage backed securities.
Love Mark Blyth. Curious to know if his confidence that capitalists will eventually figure out there's good money to be made in battling climate change is bolstered or diminished by the response so far to this virus.
Before you fall over, stunned by the brilliance, review his past lectures and the massive blind spots to the present situation. "Plagues" have been around forever and he managed to construct a vision in his head of historical economic development that never takes such disasters in to consideration. He is "(soft) "woke" after all tho....
Mark, Interesting comment on why crypto "is not money" with the 3 required descriptors you mention. The first thought that came to mind when you laid out the traditional definitions of money was "then money is not money" in reference to global currencies/markets printing $ backed by nothing etc.
This comment I hear "printing $ backed by nothing" it is backed by guarantee of the government. Your bank deposits are guaranteed up to $250,000 per account in the United States. It used to be guaranteed up to $100,000 and during past crisis such as 2008 no one who had money in a U.S. bank account lost everything in their savings account. In fact depositors did not lose anything. I look at bitcoin like a stock. A stock can go up and you can get wealthy on it, people did get wealthy on bitcoin. You also can lose all your money on a stock which is what happened a few years ago when bitcoin crashed.
Thank you for doing these. I think one of the opportunities that is being presented is the true revival of the "essay" and open discourse of academics with the public at large due to being forced into the digital age and online class settings and easily recorded and dispersed information. it feels like the dream of democratic flow of information and knowledge is finally within reach, as is Big Brother's total strangulation of freedoms. I hope we find a good way of managing forward with humanist and empathetic ideals instead of raw brute force and coercion.
Mark's comment on Crypto.., an informed opinion. Thanks. ***** Ask Michael Hudson's advice.., if the Crypto is the ill-gotten gains of the sale of arms, drugs and fossil fuels not-on-the-books.., then is this a measure of "buried treasure" of the Pirates of the Pirate Empires?, and when the numerical value dissipates, a kind of Jubilee is achieved by default?
37:00 I get that this video is quite old now. But back then especially FHM (public health agency) didn't seem particularly upset about the government. My impression is that the FHM has been doing exactly what they want to. The only thing I've heard that suggests a problem for their ability to execute what they want is that having county level rules recommendations or rules would be legally problematic. But that was just a short comment. I haven't seen any specific ideas they've been wanting to implement and fail. Have I been mislead by their press conferences (I watch them every day) and interviews with Anders Tegnell? Doubt it. It's possible I forgot something that'd be obvious to me back in march of course.
How many people are infected now has no relevance to modeling. It appears from SK that at least the first wave of immunity resembles MERS and common cold antibodies which die off in a few weeks. There are already 50 re-infection cases and that's in as best-practice a place as SK.
There are no cruise lines that are US companies. Why in the world should the US pay so much money to foreign companies that employ few US citizens and pay nothing in taxes to the US?
"It's good to be the King". Indeed it is, and I don't think this crysis will immediately change that dynamic. But in my opinion the most interesting question is "how long can you keep being the King" and harvest its benefits? It seems to me that in a rapidly changing world where eastern countries already are a force to be reckoned with, each crysis that sees the US respond in an underperforming (or not exactly competent) manner is going to contribute to the slow erosion of that "king-being" perception that keeps investors' money flowing. So, my question for Pr. Blyth would have been: "which factors in the contemporary world can guarantee investors' trust in the US supremacy. And how solid are they?"
The only thing I disagree with Mark on is the viability of crypto and not even entirely but I think he might be a bit hasty in his analysis or that certain "illegitimate" unknowns are being unintentionally ignored. Much like fiat currency's foundational store of value being substantiated through its ability to pay taxes, I see crypto's store of value, though volatile _because_ of this, in its ability and current use in black markets. Ultimately I think Mark's characterization is a distinction without a difference, but maybe this actually was the point that I'm just misinterpreting as he seemed to give potential state-run crypto some viability.
What's to understand, Mr. Watson? Blyth quite rightly points to China's "Command & Control" mechanisms that served the 'Communist' govt. officials and it's people very well from what I understand, and yes, I DO know people who have lived and worked in China recently. The indisputably Fascist West, particularly the U.S. would do well to follow China's (and Russia's too, for that matter) example on the fine point of the comparatively well managed viral containment, competently 'managed' economies and the coming attendant gold-backed currencies.
.... really? and the total repealing of personal freedom and human rights that goes with the CCP model? No thanks, sir. The Social Credit System is a nightmare to any free-thinking citizen.
@@craigpruess5565: "any free-thinking citizen", except for the billion+ Chinese citizens, who, generally agreed to the CCP model; if not, how long do you suppose the CPC (Communist Party of China) would remain in power if there was all this Western press/media exaggerated "opposition and dissatisfaction" against this model? I'm NOT saying that it's what Western countries should do, but I am saying that 1, it's none of our business, and 2, if the Chinese general public starts to have major problems with SCS, the Chinese government officials will act/revise/dismantle accordingly if they have any hope of remaining in power Thanx for reply..
It is not state legitimacy visa-vi the willingness of people to do social distancing and shutting down businesses. It is a cultural norm of collective responsibility and in the US what we have is (what I'm calling) toxic individualism..... (can you tell I'm a constructivist?)
a question for mister Blyth, what would require you to become a finance minister in the U.S. or UK? i think the world would be a more balanced place at least financially whit you in that position.
You can't discount the effect of a possible 200,000 deaths within several weeks , will have on the population. Look, the qlobal supply nchamge for food is broken. Our farmers grow soy and corn: the largest dairy declared bankruptcy last month. I don't think anyone can know what'll happen in one week let alone the next quarter.
@@MisterWhimsy The comment was from Christopher Walken on SNL. I like those on your list. I also dig people like Anand. But Mark Blyth is the Dr. House of political econ. He even calls BS to these politicians faces.
@@Sampsonoff Picking a fight on a youtube comment section? How interesting. :/ Just maybe be at peace with reality. We are sharing a spinning ball with billions of individuals on a sliding scale of intelligence and willful ignorance. Each individual the sum of their genes and life experiences, which cannot be changed. Especially from a youtube comment. So lighten up, light up (or your drug of choice), and enjoy the ride. PS... Only people in echo chambers b!tch about other echo chambers. Live and let live, homie.
The question at about 50:00 is worth more treatment though. If rents and mortgages are paused for 6 months then somewhere down the line someone is getting no money. That someone would surely be very few people though who would otherwise be getting a lot through the system. So long as the have enough to eat and keep the lights on, which could he sorted, they should be ok though surely. I dont really see what the alternative is if people cant work to pay their debts.
it's either a bank, which gets covered, or a property owner who has no liabilities and normally sticks the money under the mattress. That property owner would just get the money as normal and do with it whatever they normally do. So long as people can pass through the money that usually circulates then theoretically the system is fine, just on hiatus from the normal economic processes. Even more so if the entire world is doing the same. That said, you know that someone somewhere is going to be getting money out of this that they wouldn't otherwise have.
We've been looking for ways to roll back climate change effects-- there's less air travel, not as many people are driving to work-- have we reduced the use of fossil fuels at all? Or is all the shipping going on making up for what's being saved by other means?
There has been NASA analysis of pollution to show huge drops. There is with out a doubt a fall in CO2 as individual vehicle transportation is a massive polluter as is the airline industry, the reduction in non essential manufacturing will also have an effect. It's also worth noting that currently 27% of CO2 emissions are generated in the home. It would seem sensible to assume this figure must go up if everyone is at home. The interesting observation will be on return to normalcy how close to pre crises levels the emissions are or if they exceed those numbers. In addition the large falls in oil price would suggest without there having been a corresponding increase in supply there has been a dramatic fall in demand.
Underlying any claim of help from any government today is one of credibility. Just because Canada has pledged a relief package in no way means it will actually happen. Governments and corporations these days have a crisis of credibility. Here in Canada there are already clear indications that very few people who need help are going to get it. Granted, it will likely be "better" than the US response, but still there will be plenty of strings that will make it much less effective than advertised.
Ed's description of Japan's response misses something important. The Japanese have less need for social distancing, as their custom is for most people to wear a mask as soon as any infection strikes. They have them at home ready for any outbreak. After SARS struck in 2003, HK's people developed a similar habit.
Wish I'd known in time to get a question in but but it looks like these Keynesian cash payments will spread the demand over a very narrow slice of the economy such as Amazon at the expense of all other retailers. Is this the end of the already suffering Big Boxes? Are malls finished? Do drive-in movies and hamburger stands make a huge comeback? Some things, like travel after 9/11, will change forever. The list of long-term winners is very small (on-line businesses, maybe motor homes and boats?) but I'd love to hear Mark's ranking of the losers and which he thinks will be permanent casualties.
Interesting questions, rjohn19. Maybe in the long term, but what about economy? What about goods and services? We also know we need to begin producing our own goods. How will that happen?
@@kkay3784 I don't see big changes there. Market forces may never change in America- we're a want-it-bigger-and-better-and-I-want-it-now kind of people. Unless robotics takes a huge leap forward, we'd never stand for the lowering of our standard of living that would be required by bringing back all the manufacturing that has gone overseas. And if you paid the workers enough to buy those new American made goods, those gains would quickly be inflated away. If we've learned anything in the last 50 years, it's that only excess demand causes inflation- not printing money.. And the only way to control inflation (which big lenders rather insist upon so they don't get repaid in Monopoly money) is to keep most people's incomes under control. Give a rich man a dollar and it just adds to his pile- no increase in demand. Give a regular Joe a dollar and he'll spend it which increases inflationary pressure. I think we're stuck with low wages and cheap Chinese goods.
As far as Europe is concerned. Is there any reason the ECB can't just take a thirty year bond worth trillions of euros to sort out the economic problems of it's members with the unspoken understanding that in twenty five years they just cancel the debt, the same way Germany's debt was just cancelled in the fifties(ironically Greece was one of it's creditors)?
At 50 mins Blyth sez, "work is exchanged for labour." He must have misspoken? On the other hand, if the state and private sector is "marketing" our data then here is another good case to be made for the state/private sector to provide a guaranteed income to we individual who's data is being "grabbed and used" without any control by us, the group of individuals.
We could, but what kind of world would be born; not one with any appetite for lending. If this was 10,000 years ago we could all return to nature, hunter gathering, nomadic lifestyle. We've gone too far for that.
I thought that redefining time for accounting purposes could be useful. Eg this year will only have 6 months in it for any return on capital. It certainly wouldn't fix everything but it might stop debt chains collapsing.
We used to, it was called jubilee. Mark Blyth talks about this in other works. This is the first time in 2500 years that we have NOT forgiven debt and instead instituted the useless austerity that Mark wrote about. It allows the unfair “ownership class” to not only dodge their rightful hit that’s owed, but also profit from such “shocks” to the system (Naomi Klein).
I recognize that a particular book in the bookshelf behind Mr. Steinfeld is "On War" by the Prussian strategist and military genius, Carl von Clausewitz. I would like to know how that book, written after the Napoleonic Wars, has been of use to him?
Awesome conversation. On the covid-19 testing: Brasil is finishing validating anti-body testing, should become available in the next week or two, if all goes well.
The Brazilian leader appears at least from the outside to have taken or at least be promoting a diametrically opposing view to most other developed countries. Although on a local or regional level I have observed similar action to the rest of the world. Is this foreign media led or the actuality on the ground in Brazil?
Wow - the question you ask at 21:21 shows how naive you are - it's called CAPITALISM - if you find a niche, you can exploit it and make money. If the niche collapses, so does your income. It doesn't matter HOW the niche collapsed - you didn't cause the exploitation in the first place, you just exploited... Win in good times, suffer in bad. It's that simple.
Let the bankruptcies begin. Starting with Boeing, Cruise Ships, Hotels and weak Airlines. If you can't make it 's over. Don't worry there's a shit load of people with money that will step in and make it work better. Remember how the Banks were " to big to fail, " no one went to jail. Bailing out big business is a bigger mistake. They have CEO's who make millions to avoid problems. I don't have politicians on the inside, helping me out.
The fact is that Americans and Brits are not lazy and it has been proved many times in both nations that when migrant workers are limited that we will take work. However Farmers want migrant workers because ithey can take advantage of them. Also it is not good for the nation's who loose their young workers. It's bad all round apart from middle class people eating cheep asparagus
Wage replacement and/or unemployment insurance is insufficient. #UBI is superior because the economic hit on average working people is from both ends, decreased income AND INCREASED COSTS. Children are home from school, that means grocery expenses are quadrupling for families. Having your wages replaced does nothing to solve that. Paying for food delivery for people who cannot safely go out is an added expense often increasing the cost of food by 20% or more, again wage replacement doesn't solve that. Etc etc. For essential workers they may have had to hire a full time nanny to the tune of thousands each month to watch children who aren't at school, so despite still working and still getting their paycheck they can't afford their mortgage now. Again wage replacement is insufficient. We need #UBI.
Countries that have public health care DO do better; it feeds a sense of trust in the population. The crisis in health care in the US was well developed before the virus. With millions without coverage, going to work when they are sick because of no sick days...you have a crisis, every day. Because it is low income people to whom this crisis is wielded against does not make it any less important.
The food market is an oxymoron. US farmers dumping milk, plowing tomatoes under and abandoning other vegetables. People in the US are hungry - some of the world is worse.
One point worth making is that there is already some preliminary data suggesting genetics may be a factor in both infection rate and severity of illness which further makes extrapolating the "Swedish model" and the Japanese model to other countries a gamble as both Sweden and Japan are very genetically homogenous societies (just a side note that from an evolutionary psychology perspective this plays a large role in the, mentioned, social trust characteristic of these societies.) Additionally there is the environmental factors both as far as climate (both cooler places) and in cultural practice (both already lean towards sterility and have a lack of large urban decay) this particularly comes to mind in view of the homelessness epidemic and attendent impossibility of voluntary social distancing in many American cities.
As a Swede who likes to read dull and boring reports I don't find the idea of Sweden being homogeneous as particularly impactful argument for social trust in Sweden, far more compelling is Swedish State individualism and the quite strict moral foundation of the Social contract.
@@henrik2518 Not sure which sorts of "reports" you mean? As to the social science, it's pretty darn definitive at this point that increasing cultural diversity erodes social cohesion, social trust and willingness to prioritize the community over the self. Homogenous societies have far higher level of all these positive characteristics and as diversity increases these characteristics drop. There is an ABUNDANCE of research on the topic, both cross sectional studies and at least one good longitudinal study. Point being, we cannot copy and paste strategies that rely on social behavior from one country (and one culture) onto an entirely different country (with entirely different culture) and expect the same results.
@@searose6192 First, let me be clear that I completly agree with you that it would be foolish to copy paste strategies, there we are in 100% agreement. However... ;D Boring, but interesting reports from: SOM Institute, Ministry of Health and Social Affairs etc. Most releevnat for this topic of social trust and homogeneous populations, is probably the SOM reports that have been published since the 80s (som.gu.se/som_institute) which show that Swedes trust in institutions remains high (The trust has slowly degraded since the record figures from the 80s but appear stable som.gu.se/digitalAssets/1655/1655881_larmar-och-g--r-sig-till.pdf) and the Swedes are resistant to influence from crisis - as in even when something terrible happens the trust is barely effected - except for banks who still haven't recovered from the crisis in the -90 (jmg.gu.se/digitalAssets/1769/1769254_nr-83-hela-rapporten.pdf). Swedes trust in each other remains more or less unchanged for the last 25 years etc etc. Given the demographic shift Sweden has gone through the last 30 years one would expect something more dramatic, therefor I would like to ask you if you could perhaps share or give me the name of the longitudinal study you mentioned, in these Corona times we live in one might as well read a bit :D
@@henrik2518 Here are a few sources. academic.oup.com/esr/article/32/1/54/2404332 Also this makes for very interesting reading, and points to Macro vs Micro exposure to outgroups and points to one of several reasons why social trust remains high in Sweden despite recent increases in diversity (though it should be noted that even with the increasing diversity you mentioned, Sweden is still over 80% Swedish....very homogenous) this study discussed the fact that social distrust increases when people are directly exposed to cultural diversity within 80 km of their hometowns, but in countries (I believe the study uses Denmark for some of it's data) where the overall exposure of the population to cultural diversity has been low (Sweden would be a good example) the macro effect at the society level is minimal, while the local micro effect is significantly greater. Here is that one: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122415577989 Happy to dig through my Google history and find more for you👍
@@henrik2518 I also would like to add that while studies paint one picture, I would very much welcome hearing your personal observations since you are actually in Sweden 😉👍
At 48:56 No sorry, that's wrong. If there is a UBI then there is no "point along the line where someone isn't getting an income" that's simply false. *UNIVERSAL* Basic income gives *EVERYONE* at *EVERY POINT* along the line an income. Does it wipe out explorative profits the banks were squeezing out of the populace? Yes, perhaps, but each individual employee of those banks still has a solid income to keep them from starving and they won't lose *their* homes either.
I have learnt a lot from Mark Blyth over the years but now much prefer Jim Rickards, who seems to have much deeper and detailed information to impart. I think some of what Mark says is spurious, for instance he seems to think we got over the 2008 crash, when the evidence suggests not. The other notion of debt not being a problem, and presents how the huge money printing didn't cause inflation in the real economy, as feared, so therefore was ok providing the economy can grow itself at a pace to outdo the debt. He cites post world war 2, and has on occasion cited earlier dates of growth post war which cancelled out terrible debt. I think you'll find what Jim Rickards says regards this tension between money printing and lack of inflation more viable. It seems Mark Blyth conforms to modern monetary theory - MMT, which I think is an error. We are not going to grow ourselves out of anything. We are a mature economy with low growth, post the industrial revolution, so can't hold so much debt. The big question was how long will Dollar hold it's world reserve status for and at what point will the whole system fail at.
Doesn't Rickards pretty much just talk about buying gold as a hedge against literally everything? He reminds me of those doomsday preachers who figured out the exact date the world will end...multiple times. I guess we'll see, if this crisis doesn't lead to hyperinflation and massive increase in the value of gold then probably nothing will. If it does then I'll stop listening to Blyth and take up the mantle of Rickards.
Rickards recommends putting only 10% of your capital into gold, it's more Peter Schiff and Lynette Zang, oh and Celente who are gold bugs. This of course relies on the hyperinflation collapse but Rickards talks about the IMF perhaps introducing their currency as the replacement, the SDR - special drawing rights as the way it might go. On the other hand the US can I am sure hold more debt, if you compare it to Japan's debt to GDP ratio. I just get irritated listening to Mark Blyth now since I am listening to so many at the moment and think he seems to gloss over so many points or just takes them as givens.
FB and other social networks need to be made into public utilities. Data cannot be sourced without the ultimate producer, the countless users. Currently that producer is not being paid for the data that they produce. Plus that producer of data, paid the taxes that allowed and encouraged the universities to develop these systems since the 60's. Heads of these corporations have been getting what is basically a free ride.
The US is experiencing the cosmic hilarity that ensues when a private health system meets a public health crisis ...
We actually have a PRIVATIZED health system, not private. The corrupt bastards lie to dupe us, calling things "private" since they know there is public backlash against privatization.
Privatization is ALWAYS corruption; it is the biggest scam EVER, and is a totally different entity than regular "private" or "for profit" business. It has been done right in front of us, cloaked in lies to keep us duped.
The privatization scammers get to bill the federal government ANY AMOUNT, so they bill for massive exec salaries and do constant overbilling to reap insanely high profits. Wall Street firms invest, knowing that profits are guaranteed via federal money. That is because they know that federal money can be issued in ANY AMOUNT for anything that is physically possible. They just do not want us "peasants" to know, they need to keep us duped in order to do their scams. So they lie to us constantly about "can't afford" and fearmonger about "national debt" (NOT an actual debt) and the deficit (NOT a scary thing but federal spending should be directed to those who need it and to help the economy), etc.
Many war companies, many federal prisons, the detention centers, healthcare insurance, parts of the Post Office and the VA and Medicare, and more are privatized. The sociopathic money addicts intend to privatize EVERYTHING - they are working on public education (the "charter school" push, pretending that it is "school choice", disguising the privatization reality as much as they can), infrastructure, more of the VA, etc.
Knowing how the scam works explains why BOTH parties lie us into wars, vote for war money and fight AGAINST real healthcare for all while lying to us to try to keep the corruption scam of the privatized ACA. (The multimillion dollar CEO salaries and billions in quarterly profits of our healthcare insurance companies do NOT come from premiums people pay, they mainly come from federal money, while the corrupt try to tell us that what we have is "private" health insurance; part of the scam is that they lie to conflate "private" and "privatized", two TOTALLY different entities.)
Related companies that supply or bill through privatized companies can also grift via massive overbilling - like drug companies, military supply companies, etc. Like the Transdyne company questioned recently about billing almost $1500 for a $32 part! And some investments could be done and kept more hidden when it comes to smaller companies not on the stock market. The politicians getting rich in office do not get rich on bribes, those usually amount to relatively little compared to the increase in net worth of many politicians in office. The real money is NOT in the bribes, it is from various scams; privatization just happens to be the biggest and most pervasive one.
Privatization= CORRUPTION and we must demand an END to all privatization!
@@debbiedogs1 The word "privatization" boils my blood.
@@robertsmith-williams5255 - and the corrupt bastards know this, which is why they use "private", or "public-private partnership", or now we have the privatization of public education disguised as "charter schools" and the "school choice" talking point, etc. The sociopaths also passed the TPP recently by disguising it as USMCA and saying it was "NAFTA reworked" to dupe us all. And most of the traitors in Congress voted for it - Gabbard, Pelosi, Warren, Khanna, Wasserman-Schultz and almost all regardless of party. Disgraceful.
what do you mean? america handled this far better than countries with socialized healthcare
@@007kingifrit lololololzzz hahah you're a joker mate. yeeesss ... US has such teh best medical. Such the most covid deaths. Such wise great leader.
"It's my pleasure"
No, it's ours! Mark is an extraordinary economist and political thinker.
i do wish pundits would stop referring to elective oligarchies as 'democracies.' professionals should know better. when you refer to the distrust/contempt evinced by the peoples of those 'democracies,' merely substitute 'elective oligarchy' and the alienation is natural and clear. words matter, and double-think is alive and being practiced by people who should know better.
They are academics, until there is consensus in the Political Science field about changing the terminology as such, they will continue using the term 'democracies'.
academics are the biggest stooges and lackeys of capital, they are the current day priests who's authority reigns over that which is true and that which is not true, they shamelessly use their intellectual authority on these topics to defend the status quo, not dislodge or change it, the biggest myth in the world is that people that are higher educated become socialists or lefties when the vast majority become insufferable spoiled brats who through their connections get positions of wealth and power they should never be able to obtain which is why we're in a world that's run by shitty people's coke'd up spoiled sons and daughters and it's noticeably fragile and weak.
only those who go to higher education and don't get positions of power and wealth feel betrayed and only then turn to leftism, the rest are just clueless people who have generally been duped into thinking capitalism is good because lines go up, it's why there are 2 schools of economy at universities, 1 is called economics and is basically propaganda telling you how good capitalism is without explaining how it actually works and the other is called business school and there you actually learn how capitalism works and the 2 are separated as much as possible on campus to ensure the students don't talk to each other, also because people that go to business schools generally have their education paid for them by their employers and students are much older than conventional university students.
Higher education is often a networking event for the rich and a scam for the middle class that scraps together all their savings to afford their children a position of prestige that will never pay off.
@@Iandrasill good points well made. i am left, because i have empathy, and understand how capitalism functions. i naively assumed other people had the same or similar degrees of empathy. it appears money trumps empathy and indeed intelligence. what to do? become like heraclitus? epicurus?
It helps to read ideas like Chomsky's Manufacturing Consent text to have a better understanding of how to interpret politician within our corporate media framework in the US. It's a pretty simple situation here. Full-blown oligarchy. Media serves their corporate owners, so do the politicians. All goes back to large power structures that largely resist any elements of populism or democratic thinking (particularly in the workplace).
@@sawtoothiandi i recommend new zealand, or australia. imperfect but there is a relief in being far from the fire.
Thanks guys, great yarn up. The constant Thatcher/Regan mantra of 'hate the state sector' / 'love the private sector' has contributed mightily to our decline and incapacity of public enterprise. Austerity was the driver to ruin the public sector and social ruin is the outcome.
Thatcher...brrr. "Being poor is because you have a lack of character." the evil hag said.
I thought it was because you had a lack of money.
I love Mark I really do. He has a great analytical view and it’s refreshing plus he doesn’t hold any punches.
I would like to propose a counter argument. While, it is true many of the US corporations are not responsible for the health care crisis we’re under, it is also true many of these corporations are responsible for our current economic crisis. I’m going to give the summary version. If you allow big finance and corporations to operate with little to no oversight in return they will ensure their domination in the market place.
Lobbying to deregulate policies, passing policies that give little to no oversight to ensure workers have no mobility, by allowing monopolies to squeeze our real competition in the marketplace, leveraging prices at your command with no competition. Incentivizing repeated bad behavior when massive policy regulations are not followed and damage the economy immensely with little to no consequence, receiving massive tax cuts, after agreeing to stimulate the economy yet resend on that agreement only to buy back your own stocks to increase your assets furthering your own private coffers. Receiving a $500 billion bail out a $800 billion bail out only to keep wages in a perpetual stagnation. A practice here in the US since 1980’s, as they use taxpayers money to enrich and bail themselves out of Financial decay.
All these instances and more have starved our resources, crippled our Financial, educational, healthcare, infrastructure‘s and ultimately weaken our government’s ability to answer and respond to real crisis or problems that normally would be designed for it to handle. There is a myth that has been perpetuating in our country, for a while now like 50 years, that says government is in adequate and so the private sector has to respond to deal with the problem since government can’t handle. Yes it would seem that way but you also have to look at how the government(people) have been also bought and sold to these corporations which allows them unnecessary movement and leverage over the economy and a Undemocratic say in policy decisions that result in a desire to ensure A massive cushion to all risk-taking and any other self interest that will benefit that company while socializing their losses.
Our inability to respond to the current crisis is an exacerbation of poor lack of discernment and a lack of understanding and wisdom about labor and the people who produce that labor, and a demonization of those workers as inferior. Our insatiable desire to bond human value with avarice has crippled and atrophied our response time to this viral crisis.
It’s never just a black-and-white scenario there are several factors at play here. As time goes by, just like in 2007 -2008, we will discover more of these factors. I would wager we will find out that more of our repeated practices and behaviors will have a larger impact than we suspect presently.
We just don’t like to be honest especially when it comes to us making mistakes. So naturally if no one find out until later you made a mistake you’re bound to repeat it. But as Mark says, there are other ways to handle this we just lack the vision and willpower to do so. In large part, because there’s a self interest that compels one to overlook or be willfully ignorant. 😂
@Anton Shields
Well as far as I know he is pro BREXIT and that is probably a dumb idea for the UK.
Should say I am pro BREXIT but to get the UK out of the EU.
You just wrote a whole bunch of nothing.
Yes, add in that the priorities are backwards: we need a coherent healthcare system that is not controlled by special interests - a representative democracy is supposed to form and implement intelligible policies and to have contingency plans for emergencies, like this. Instead, we are thrown into the maelstrom of science-deniers. Also, one underlying cause is air and water pollution which the right has been rolling back on regulations and controls while proliferating fossil fuels usage instead of switching to green technologies. Needless to add, exotic animals and the slaughtering of animals in public settings releases their pathogens - everyone should know better! Leave the animals alone.
BLUE DOG That wouldn’t be a bad idea but I’m studying narcissistic psychology with a special interest in algorithmic behavior modification. Which is basically looking how incremental suggestions affect our behavior which eventually affects our psychology. It goes under the radar because we’ve never had algorithms suggesting things to us in mass but they’re quite effective. Economics it’s quite fascinating. And you’re exactly right. We’ve been repeating this song and dance for quite some time and the dynamic of those who cannot satiate their desire to manipulate and control. Sadly at the end of the day, it boils down to control of others as a form of motivation. And there may be other interest but they’re probably centralized to one major focus. And that’s where the narcissistic psychology steps in. The difference now is the elite through technology have a massive amount of influence than before. We use business terminology for dating and social interactions and on the surface it’s not that big of a deal. But incrementally over time it changes your behavior. But thanks for the comment. You have me thinking now. I just dont know if I have time to do it.
Ha! That sign is exactly the type of sign I'd imagine Mark would have!
When you try to go to work after a night of drinking and think you can operate heavy machinery.
I will make that sign for my room
i want that screenshot with Blyth included for my twitter battles
The Scots don’t pull any punches. Believe me!
I want one.
this is basically explaining how 20th century models do not work and how we should move into the 21st century....
Or back to the people powered 19th. A century in which there was a culture of innovation.
US hasn't had a major political realignment since after WWII. We've been waiting a long time for change.
So when will we get to the point of economic balance. A Growth economy makes no sense on a finite planet.
Yes no one ever seems to address this basic contradiction. Guess all models are based on growth.
Of course it can. Ideas are not finite. How much raw materials is in a song that people pay to listen to? The raw material cost of a smart phone is a fraction of its value to an economy. And software has value while being completely abstract. And this will be even more true once people make the effort to recycle things like the rare earth metals etc. The problem with our economies if that we are spending too much money on billionaires... billionaires are an extremely expensive hit for any economy to have to afford, they cost billions, each. Growth doesn't have to be exploitative... the fact that it is isn't a problem with growth, it's a problem with exploitation.
I take your point about placing value in different ways and not everything is physical.
And agree that the policies deployed have been favouring the top of the financial tree, so to speak, but this is what vast money printing does, you'd have to stop the cause to stop this imbalance but they wont.
I don't think recycling solves the problem, from listening to commentators, it's my understanding that you have to stop consumption.
I'm not a greenie by the way but believe you need to get the world populations down to really address the problem.
Every country should do what it can to balance this.
We wont. It'll oscillate forever with war as the final safe guard
Yours is the most important question that there is! Sadly, there are so many people who have never even considered that question. They have been too thoroughly indoctrinated into believing that the growth model is the vital element of the economy. I am curious to know if Mark Blythe has ever talked about a steady state economy. Do you know if he has?
2:50 Skip the preamble
I think the breakdown of logistics is the real issue for all.
Mark is great. Love how he spreads his knowlesge through talks that go online.
39:10 the distancing orders aren’t what prevented major breakouts in Chinese cities outside Wuhan.
There was a period of a couple weeks when China restricted flights out of Wuhan to other cities in China, but allowed flights out of Wuhan to cities outside China.
Great - sorry I missed this live
So the key things are
1 bail out business with Cash in exchange for an equity share in the business... plough this into a sovereign wealth fund and share the proceeds with the public in the medium to long term aka Norway and Singapore?
2 re visit and redevelop the welfare state with proper healthcare, decent free education, the Green New Deal, worthwhile social safety nets.... in the medium and longer term the bail out and these services can be paid for with the compound growth in the sovereign wealth fund?
3. achieve all of the above without increasing taxes? ..... what is there not to like
Sure. But the rich people don't want that, so they threaten the gov, and get what they want.
It all sounds wonderful except for the part about doing it all without raising taxes. It can't be done without raising taxes because the rich people haven't enough money to pay for it all and your share of their money amounts to about 200 dollars which most people would blow on junkfood or something.
There is everything inherently wrong with the tourist industry, the airline industry, and most especially by the tax and regulation dodging cruise ship industry, if you've noticed our ever worsening climate catastrophe. This would be an excellent time to accomplish huge emissions reductions by NOT bailing out especially the last.
Outstanding as always! Thanks a lot to both of you and thanks to the Watson Institute of course.
I know that there have been a lot of issues with inadequate supplies of medical and PPE. What about riot gear and urban combat supplies? What do want to bet that the moneyed interests have made sure they are well stocked up on the tools of suppression?
Good point!
As a pretty much self education person. I have in AA degree. I believe Mark Blythe has a better handle on what is happening in world and explain s it better than anyone else I have listened to.
Corporations have a printing press too. It's called the Fed. It's function was always to bolster the power of a profligate ruling caste.
Thanks for this. Always interesting and forward looking. Stay well everyone.
I want that picture on his wall. If I take nothing else away from this, I want to take that!
I wonder if it says Austerity on the reverse side 🤔
Thank You Gents for this great Program. Do you expect inflation before or after the Emergency? If yes, what’s your guesstimate percentage on US inflation?
Like that you started with his country's traditional folksong. It's an apt way to introduce him to newbies.
Great talk and well hosted. Thanks
Just keep the money flowing without producing anything but food, water, energy and all basic utilities. Reduce the rest of "economic" activity to zero and keep people at home. remove the money with higher inflation AFTER two years. Jobs done!
We should do this anyway, to fight CO2 emissions! We will now reach or climate goals, because of the virus. We need more pandemics!
The problem with our capitalistic system is that we need to produce and work even when there is nothing that needs to be produced. The exponentially expanding market demands it.
This is of course total insanity. And the reason that we are unable to actually do something useful that could save our planet.
If no work needs to be done, let people do what they want. More free time is good for peoples, health, creativity and society. And good for the enviroment.
Mark Blyth is the best. I wish he were the U.S. Treasury secretary. I wish he were viewable on every platform. Whatever he wants.
I don't think he's the best at all. I would have to say Jim Rickards is vastly superior and has greater knowledge to impart.
We didn't mail checks to people, it was direct deposited to your account according to last years IRS data. What you got in the mail is the thank you letter.
From a UK perspective would austerity's effect on public service spending have contributed to fragility in the public health system?
I'd rather get a check I'm self employed builder in the uk got screwed in 08 now this I have a lot of money tied up in a project which was close to finishing I get 0 untill june with 0 income Im not even sure if quality for that due to period of illness to say I'm angry would be and understatement
Very good Q&A. This interviewer basically asks some of the best questions on peoples minds. A++
I really do worry about how economies will recover from this. Walking through my local town in the UK, it reminded me of what the place was like before Sunday Trading Laws were introduced with practically everything shut down. Most of them are luxury/leisure shops and I wonder if they will ever reopen. Honestly, who will be thinking about spending on haircuts if pubs/bars/restaurants are closed or may also never come back?
The lingering fear of a contagion returning may kill off any hopes of attempts to return to 'the norm' (if that's even possible). Not only are massive leisure industries utterly gutted due to huge numbers of unemployment and wage cuts (for those receiving wage replacement payments), but supply chains are also all over the place for the foreseeable future. All of this hits the markets which in turn impacts retirement plans etc.
For the moment, we seem to be managing. Assuming these wage replacement systems are actually properly implemented and the money gets to where it's needed, hardship should be in the main, avoided. I'm no economist, I just see problems everywhere...
I would like to point out something about Sweden. I think the Swedish government makes a virtue of its failings. Sweden has no emergency laws except in war time. They are trying to sort out this in the middle of the crisis, but I will take time. Until recently (last week), there was no legal mechanism to shut down elementary schools. Sweden has been at peace for 208 years and there is no preparation at any level for systemic crisis. Their only option for now is business as usual with recommendations from the state.
Mark Blyth is wrong 2008 was not a banking crisis. It was a classic move to a rentier extraction economy due to the falling rate of profit. The falling rate of profit driven by over accumulation of wealth causing rising inequality, poverty and falling demand. When capitalists cannot make profit from the real economy due to a collapse in demand, they move to fictional capital of a finacialised economy. Vol 3 of capital essentially.
2008 was not a financial crisis, it was a crisis of the real economy due to the internal contradictions of capitalism that manefested in the financial services. This is why fixing the banks was ineffective drove continuing austerity and caused the present crisis, as for example EU austerity deprived Italian hospitals of the spare capacity it needed. This is a continuation of the 2008 economic crisis.
That is true. In the computing industry there has been a march to a subscription model. A customer no longer owns the product they purchase, only lease said product until they stop paying. Many companies that lag behind in embracing this are penalized by investors. Some example catch phrases are Software as a Service, Infrastructure as a Service, Games as a Service, etc.
@@vgernyc Has there been a business solution proposed in order to get rid of this stupid model? Linux was supposed to be the alternative to Microsoft. But nearly all opensource softwares are inferior to the paid subscription ones. Companies required Windows or Macs for some reasons. If I want to own my software with no extra update or continuing subscription, how do you do it?
@@Account.for.Comment Open Source which Linux is a core part of was marketed as a free alternative. As honest and true are the intentions of those who founded this, we don't operate in a Marxist economy. Software developers also have to make money to make a living. Corporations see this software as a opportunity to lower their R&D costs yet still charge as if they made the software themselves. I remember IBM was selling us this very expensive security software to us and when my coworker looked into what makes the software work, it was all Open Source, IBM only pieced it together. VMware was sued by the Open Source community because they directly modified the source code and did not disclose their modifications and profited from it. A court declared VMware was ok to do so despite the license agreement of the software they effectively stole.
I've come to feel that if people are motivated enough , they will figure out how to circumvent or change the rules of the game to profit from it. However too much of that is like termites eating a house. Eventually the house will fall. I think Gresham's Law measures an aspect of this. Gold, Silver and digital are not immune from this.
@@vgernyc Sound like it depend on whether the judge, lawmakers and the corporation decision makers to be able to understand how technology work to change it. Thanks for your answer.
Gov' handing posting cheques like it's the 70's WTF. That's basically being obstructive on purpose!
It's always good to see Ed.
Im hoping for a scholarship to Brown! Full ride!
That my have vanished in this mess.
@@antediluvianatheist5262 True
One thing both of you neglected to mention is that both China and South Korea have a much more extensive recent history with flu epidemics. In South Korea in particular, the response to MERS was widely seen as disastrous, with the country’s most prestigious hospital helping to spread the virus through lack of quarantines. This followed on the heels of years of national embarrassments with the Park Geun Hye scandal, the Sewol disaster, and so on.
Long story short, South Korea has spent the last decade or more trying to recover from a series of humiliating failures of governance. The coronavirus was a disaster for which they were uniquely prepared for, and for which there was a great deal of painful lessons learned. They remain a politically divided country (President Moon Jae In still faces harsh criticism for say, refusing to ban entry to Chinese citizens earlier on), but this is vital context to explain how their response to the coronavirus.
Am a bit disturbed by Blyth’s glib dismissal of the corporate and governmental debt problem. So long as the economy keeps growing more than the debt is increasing, we are fine. This answer obscures so much. Why have major stock markets become more connected to perma low interest rates and various ongoing forms of QE than they are to economic fundamentals? Isn’t the debt tail now wagging the growth dog? And is it healthy in any objective sense to keep kicking this can down the road?
You are absolutely correct. Economic growth depends entirely on the demand side of the supply/demand equation. This means using population growth as a means of increasing demand relative to supply and this explains the neoliberal ideology of open borders (EU).
National borders are a natural firebreak against pandemics. Coronavirus spread so quickly as a direct result of the human penchant for fast international/continental travel. It is a mirror image of the sudden mass movement of troops spreading the Spanish Flu pandemic at the end of WW1 (1918-21). The subsequent closing of borders (EU) is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
Here's one of the problems with bailing out the businesses. Ignoring the fact that there operating styles are questionable it is unfair on small to medium size competitors to bail them out. These firms are not asking for bailouts yet because of the way they were run. In fact when the banks were collapsing some were actually growing because they were and did make the right moves.
So what happens when you save the big companies is great there's less disruption but the small and medium businesses get destroyed, as you have just guaranteed the bigger firms. This leads to all their employees getting fired instead or the firm being bought up by the big firms further monopolising them and giving them more power.
What gives you the right to say the small, medium firms staff are less important than the bigger firms staff?
It's not Mark Blyth who's saying it. It's Trump's backers who are saying it. They back him, so he does as they want, and writes the rules in their favour. Think about it. All the tax rules for example are written in a way that large companies can either avoid them, or comply at really low costs. Their economies of scale doesn't translate to medium and small enterprises who are often surviving month to month, and cannot shift their assets offshore. That was done to keep corporate backers sweet. No Ruler rules alone, and behind the throne is a queue of backers holding their hands out.
@@BigHenFor All you say maybe/probably true but it's Edward who is saying this in the video 18:55 because he only sees the people who lose there jobs as a result of no bailouts. He doesn't consider the people who will lose there jobs as a result of the bailouts or medium to large companies that would of taken there place if the corporations lost there value so these medium to large businesses could buy them up cheap and grow.
The most important thing at this stage of an epidemic is to find out who has had the virus and recovered. If the antibody test identifies a small set of people who unknowingly have been sick and recovered, these need not be quarantined and can help in nursing homes, hospitals, dealing with large queues of people, protected by antibody immunity. They can donate their antibodies to the most severe cases. If there are a sizable population of these people with antibodies, they can go back to work, and start normalizing life.
I could listen to his accent for weeks, weirdly the almost gibberish English is easy to understand, but has some kind of tone/rhythm that makes it more pleasant to listen to than more common English speakers.
it's not "almost gibberish", it's just a specific regional accent.
Really. You don't get out much do you? Mark was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and his accent is hard for you because he speaks quickly. But, Otter.ai understands him very well.
Hi from UK. Does quantitative easing increase the asset prices for the rich? Or is this a difference between the type of UK and US quantitative easing? I read the US buys back government bonds, corporate bonds and mortgage backed securities.
There's no need for sovereign governments to debt-finance economic rescue packages.
Love Mark Blyth. Curious to know if his confidence that capitalists will eventually figure out there's good money to be made in battling climate change is bolstered or diminished by the response so far to this virus.
Before you fall over, stunned by the brilliance, review his past lectures and the massive blind spots to the present situation. "Plagues" have been around forever and he managed to construct a vision in his head of historical economic development that never takes such disasters in to consideration. He is "(soft) "woke" after all tho....
48:29 Question from Nunya Buisness. Little details like always make me smile.
@12:30 closed captioning should read: 'under Cameron and Osborn'...
Exxcellent show and Supern Hosting by Steinfeld
Mark, Interesting comment on why crypto "is not money" with the 3 required descriptors you mention. The first thought that came to mind when you laid out the traditional definitions of money was "then money is not money" in reference to global currencies/markets printing $ backed by nothing etc.
This comment I hear "printing $ backed by nothing" it is backed by guarantee of the government. Your bank deposits are guaranteed up to $250,000 per account in the United States. It used to be guaranteed up to $100,000 and during past crisis such as 2008 no one who had money in a U.S. bank account lost everything in their savings account. In fact depositors did not lose anything. I look at bitcoin like a stock. A stock can go up and you can get wealthy on it, people did get wealthy on bitcoin. You also can lose all your money on a stock which is what happened a few years ago when bitcoin crashed.
Thank you for doing these. I think one of the opportunities that is being presented is the true revival of the "essay" and open discourse of academics with the public at large due to being forced into the digital age and online class settings and easily recorded and dispersed information.
it feels like the dream of democratic flow of information and knowledge is finally within reach, as is Big Brother's total strangulation of freedoms. I hope we find a good way of managing forward with humanist and empathetic ideals instead of raw brute force and coercion.
Mark's comment on Crypto.., an informed opinion. Thanks.
*****
Ask Michael Hudson's advice.., if the Crypto is the ill-gotten gains of the sale of arms, drugs and fossil fuels not-on-the-books.., then is this a measure of "buried treasure" of the Pirates of the Pirate Empires?, and when the numerical value dissipates, a kind of Jubilee is achieved by default?
37:00
I get that this video is quite old now. But back then especially FHM (public health agency) didn't seem particularly upset about the government. My impression is that the FHM has been doing exactly what they want to. The only thing I've heard that suggests a problem for their ability to execute what they want is that having county level rules recommendations or rules would be legally problematic. But that was just a short comment. I haven't seen any specific ideas they've been wanting to implement and fail.
Have I been mislead by their press conferences (I watch them every day) and interviews with Anders Tegnell? Doubt it. It's possible I forgot something that'd be obvious to me back in march of course.
Good interview with David Cross.
When did I end up in a world where it seems like everyone else read 1984 and thought that it sounded like a good idea?
Blyth is quite brilliant.
How many people are infected now has no relevance to modeling. It appears from SK that at least the first wave of immunity resembles MERS and common cold antibodies which die off in a few weeks. There are already 50 re-infection cases and that's in as best-practice a place as SK.
There are no cruise lines that are US companies. Why in the world should the US pay so much money to foreign companies that employ few US citizens and pay nothing in taxes to the US?
"It's good to be the King".
Indeed it is, and I don't think this crysis will immediately change that dynamic. But in my opinion the most interesting question is "how long can you keep being the King" and harvest its benefits?
It seems to me that in a rapidly changing world where eastern countries already are a force to be reckoned with, each crysis that sees the US respond in an underperforming (or not exactly competent) manner is going to contribute to the slow erosion of that "king-being" perception that keeps investors' money flowing.
So, my question for Pr. Blyth would have been: "which factors in the contemporary world can guarantee investors' trust in the US supremacy. And how solid are they?"
"And whats the deal with Global Trumpism?"
~Ed Seinfeld
The only thing I disagree with Mark on is the viability of crypto and not even entirely but I think he might be a bit hasty in his analysis or that certain "illegitimate" unknowns are being unintentionally ignored. Much like fiat currency's foundational store of value being substantiated through its ability to pay taxes, I see crypto's store of value, though volatile _because_ of this, in its ability and current use in black markets. Ultimately I think Mark's characterization is a distinction without a difference, but maybe this actually was the point that I'm just misinterpreting as he seemed to give potential state-run crypto some viability.
What's to understand, Mr. Watson?
Blyth quite rightly points to China's "Command & Control" mechanisms that served the 'Communist' govt. officials and it's people very well from what I understand, and yes, I DO know people who have lived and worked in China recently.
The indisputably Fascist West, particularly the U.S. would do well to follow China's (and Russia's too, for that matter) example on the fine point of the comparatively well managed viral containment, competently 'managed' economies and the coming attendant gold-backed currencies.
.... really? and the total repealing of personal freedom and human rights that goes with the CCP model? No thanks, sir. The Social Credit System is a nightmare to any free-thinking citizen.
@@craigpruess5565: "any free-thinking citizen", except for the billion+ Chinese citizens, who, generally agreed to the CCP model; if not, how long do you suppose the CPC (Communist Party of China) would remain in power if there was all this Western press/media exaggerated "opposition and dissatisfaction" against this model?
I'm NOT saying that it's what Western countries should do, but I am saying that 1, it's none of our business, and 2, if the Chinese general public starts to have major problems with SCS, the Chinese government officials will act/revise/dismantle accordingly if they have any hope of remaining in power
Thanx for reply..
It is not state legitimacy visa-vi the willingness of people to do social distancing and shutting down businesses. It is a cultural norm of collective responsibility and in the US what we have is (what I'm calling) toxic individualism..... (can you tell I'm a constructivist?)
Just another asset grab. This fight was lost a long time ago. We are all crabs in a bucket in this economy.
a question for mister Blyth, what would require you to become a finance minister in the U.S. or UK? i think the world would be a more balanced place at least financially whit you in that position.
You can't discount the effect of a possible 200,000 deaths within several weeks , will have on the population.
Look, the qlobal supply nchamge for food is broken. Our farmers grow soy and corn: the largest dairy declared bankruptcy last month.
I don't think anyone can know what'll happen in one week let alone the next quarter.
Yes! Let's beg those big questions about capitalism! Why resist forcing the discussion?
Well, Mark likes capitalism. So he assumes it.
I have a fever, and the only prescription is more Mark Blyth.
@@MisterWhimsy The comment was from Christopher Walken on SNL. I like those on your list. I also dig people like Anand. But Mark Blyth is the Dr. House of political econ. He even calls BS to these politicians faces.
Jeff Keys have you ever tried listening to different viewpoints or do you just enjoy the echo chamber too much?
@@Sampsonoff Picking a fight on a youtube comment section? How interesting. :/ Just maybe be at peace with reality. We are sharing a spinning ball with billions of individuals on a sliding scale of intelligence and willful ignorance. Each individual the sum of their genes and life experiences, which cannot be changed. Especially from a youtube comment. So lighten up, light up (or your drug of choice), and enjoy the ride.
PS... Only people in echo chambers b!tch about other echo chambers. Live and let live, homie.
The question at about 50:00 is worth more treatment though. If rents and mortgages are paused for 6 months then somewhere down the line someone is getting no money. That someone would surely be very few people though who would otherwise be getting a lot through the system. So long as the have enough to eat and keep the lights on, which could he sorted, they should be ok though surely. I dont really see what the alternative is if people cant work to pay their debts.
it's either a bank, which gets covered, or a property owner who has no liabilities and normally sticks the money under the mattress. That property owner would just get the money as normal and do with it whatever they normally do. So long as people can pass through the money that usually circulates then theoretically the system is fine, just on hiatus from the normal economic processes. Even more so if the entire world is doing the same. That said, you know that someone somewhere is going to be getting money out of this that they wouldn't otherwise have.
the market clearly doesn't think cruise lines are getting bailed out
It's a heavy mismatch between how on point Mark is and how confused the bold guy is.
*bald
and i completely agree
In the USA, we have disinvested in healthcare and international information sharing.
We've been looking for ways to roll back climate change effects-- there's less air travel, not as many people are driving to work-- have we reduced the use of fossil fuels at all? Or is all the shipping going on making up for what's being saved by other means?
There has been NASA analysis of pollution to show huge drops. There is with out a doubt a fall in CO2 as individual vehicle transportation is a massive polluter as is the airline industry, the reduction in non essential manufacturing will also have an effect. It's also worth noting that currently 27% of CO2 emissions are generated in the home. It would seem sensible to assume this figure must go up if everyone is at home. The interesting observation will be on return to normalcy how close to pre crises levels the emissions are or if they exceed those numbers. In addition the large falls in oil price would suggest without there having been a corresponding increase in supply there has been a dramatic fall in demand.
Underlying any claim of help from any government today is one of credibility. Just because Canada has pledged a relief package in no way means it will actually happen. Governments and corporations these days have a crisis of credibility. Here in Canada there are already clear indications that very few people who need help are going to get it. Granted, it will likely be "better" than the US response, but still there will be plenty of strings that will make it much less effective than advertised.
privatizing profits, socializing losses
I’d like to know what’s happening with the real estate prices
right?
blacked mirror Blyth has said multiple times that there is a bubble in several cities in the US, Canada, Australia and Europe
Ed's description of Japan's response misses something important. The Japanese have less need for social distancing, as their custom is for most people to wear a mask as soon as any infection strikes. They have them at home ready for any outbreak. After SARS struck in 2003, HK's people developed a similar habit.
Wish I'd known in time to get a question in but but it looks like these Keynesian cash payments will spread the demand over a very narrow slice of the economy such as Amazon at the expense of all other retailers. Is this the end of the already suffering Big Boxes? Are malls finished? Do drive-in movies and hamburger stands make a huge comeback?
Some things, like travel after 9/11, will change forever. The list of long-term winners is very small (on-line businesses, maybe motor homes and boats?) but I'd love to hear Mark's ranking of the losers and which he thinks will be permanent casualties.
Interesting questions, rjohn19. Maybe in the long term, but what about economy? What about goods and services? We also know we need to begin producing our own goods. How will that happen?
@@kkay3784 I don't see big changes there. Market forces may never change in America- we're a want-it-bigger-and-better-and-I-want-it-now kind of people. Unless robotics takes a huge leap forward, we'd never stand for the lowering of our standard of living that would be required by bringing back all the manufacturing that has gone overseas. And if you paid the workers enough to buy those new American made goods, those gains would quickly be inflated away.
If we've learned anything in the last 50 years, it's that only excess demand causes inflation- not printing money.. And the only way to control inflation (which big lenders rather insist upon so they don't get repaid in Monopoly money) is to keep most people's incomes under control. Give a rich man a dollar and it just adds to his pile- no increase in demand. Give a regular Joe a dollar and he'll spend it which increases inflationary pressure. I think we're stuck with low wages and cheap Chinese goods.
As far as Europe is concerned. Is there any reason the ECB can't just take a thirty year bond worth trillions of euros to sort out the economic problems of it's members with the unspoken understanding that in twenty five years they just cancel the debt, the same way Germany's debt was just cancelled in the fifties(ironically Greece was one of it's creditors)?
Its already spent billions in its futile efforts to save the European economies and has come to the end of the line and hit the buffers.
@@lawrencebrown3677 I'm talking trillions, not billions. And I'm saying avoid austerity like they have done for the last ten years.
Because Germany wants to keep issuing bonds at negative rates.
As is tradition on these long sought webs of information, I present thee: 1st
I respond humbly: 2nd
You're both wrong. Lol
Much better co-host / foil for Mark.
Carrie is a Democrat Party operative, she is constantly feeding him misinformation.
half the country can receive payment to their phones but what % have ever bothered setting up their phones to do payments? 1% maybe?
At 50 mins Blyth sez, "work is exchanged for labour." He must have misspoken? On the other hand, if the state and private sector is "marketing" our data then here is another good case to be made for the state/private sector to provide a guaranteed income to we individual who's data is being "grabbed and used" without any control by us, the group of individuals.
Why can’t we cancel all debts and start again
We could, but what kind of world would be born; not one with any appetite for lending. If this was 10,000 years ago we could all return to nature, hunter gathering, nomadic lifestyle. We've gone too far for that.
I thought that redefining time for accounting purposes could be useful. Eg this year will only have 6 months in it for any return on capital. It certainly wouldn't fix everything but it might stop debt chains collapsing.
It seems we could. There is just no political will for it.
We used to, it was called jubilee. Mark Blyth talks about this in other works. This is the first time in 2500 years that we have NOT forgiven debt and instead instituted the useless austerity that Mark wrote about. It allows the unfair “ownership class” to not only dodge their rightful hit that’s owed, but also profit from such “shocks” to the system (Naomi Klein).
@@acvanzant History suggests lenders will get over their losses and quickly go back to lending if there's a buck to be made out of it.
I recognize that a particular book in the bookshelf behind Mr. Steinfeld is "On War" by the Prussian strategist and military genius, Carl von Clausewitz. I would like to know how that book, written after the Napoleonic Wars, has been of use to him?
Mark is like the guy from Real Genius if he became an academic after the movie ended.
If you're speaking of the character played by Val Kilmer, that is spot on. Great '80s sound track also.
New Zealand?
Re potential spikes in Sweden and Japan,wouldnt this have happenend by now after this amount of time?
Awesome conversation. On the covid-19 testing: Brasil is finishing validating anti-body testing, should become available in the next week or two, if all goes well.
The Brazilian leader appears at least from the outside to have taken or at least be promoting a diametrically opposing view to most other developed countries. Although on a local or regional level I have observed similar action to the rest of the world. Is this foreign media led or the actuality on the ground in Brazil?
Anti-body testing is huge. Source? (Are you sure it's not rt-PCR?)
Wow - the question you ask at 21:21 shows how naive you are - it's called CAPITALISM - if you find a niche, you can exploit it and make money. If the niche collapses, so does your income. It doesn't matter HOW the niche collapsed - you didn't cause the exploitation in the first place, you just exploited... Win in good times, suffer in bad. It's that simple.
Let the bankruptcies begin. Starting with Boeing, Cruise Ships, Hotels and weak
Airlines. If you can't make it 's over. Don't worry
there's a shit load of people with money that will step in and make it
work better. Remember how the Banks were " to big to fail, " no one
went to jail. Bailing out big business is a bigger mistake. They have
CEO's who make millions to avoid problems. I don't have politicians on the inside, helping me out.
The fact is that Americans and Brits are not lazy and it has been proved many times in both nations that when migrant workers are limited that we will take work. However Farmers want migrant workers because ithey can take advantage of them. Also it is not good for the nation's who loose their young workers. It's bad all round apart from middle class people eating cheep asparagus
Wage replacement and/or unemployment insurance is insufficient. #UBI is superior because the economic hit on average working people is from both ends, decreased income AND INCREASED COSTS. Children are home from school, that means grocery expenses are quadrupling for families. Having your wages replaced does nothing to solve that. Paying for food delivery for people who cannot safely go out is an added expense often increasing the cost of food by 20% or more, again wage replacement doesn't solve that. Etc etc. For essential workers they may have had to hire a full time nanny to the tune of thousands each month to watch children who aren't at school, so despite still working and still getting their paycheck they can't afford their mortgage now. Again wage replacement is insufficient. We need #UBI.
In Canada, thru the EI system, is guaranteeing $500/week to workers who have lost their work because of the virus.
So, the 80 million hourly workers are basically holding up the ediface of the US economic system?
Countries that have public health care DO do better; it feeds a sense of trust in the population. The crisis in health care in the US was well developed before the virus. With millions without coverage, going to work when they are sick because of no sick days...you have a crisis, every day. Because it is low income people to whom this crisis is wielded against does not make it any less important.
The food market is an oxymoron. US farmers dumping milk, plowing tomatoes under and abandoning other vegetables. People in the US are hungry - some of the world is worse.
One point worth making is that there is already some preliminary data suggesting genetics may be a factor in both infection rate and severity of illness which further makes extrapolating the "Swedish model" and the Japanese model to other countries a gamble as both Sweden and Japan are very genetically homogenous societies (just a side note that from an evolutionary psychology perspective this plays a large role in the, mentioned, social trust characteristic of these societies.) Additionally there is the environmental factors both as far as climate (both cooler places) and in cultural practice (both already lean towards sterility and have a lack of large urban decay) this particularly comes to mind in view of the homelessness epidemic and attendent impossibility of voluntary social distancing in many American cities.
As a Swede who likes to read dull and boring reports I don't find the idea of Sweden being homogeneous as particularly impactful argument for social trust in Sweden, far more compelling is Swedish State individualism and the quite strict moral foundation of the Social contract.
@@henrik2518 Not sure which sorts of "reports" you mean?
As to the social science, it's pretty darn definitive at this point that increasing cultural diversity erodes social cohesion, social trust and willingness to prioritize the community over the self. Homogenous societies have far higher level of all these positive characteristics and as diversity increases these characteristics drop.
There is an ABUNDANCE of research on the topic, both cross sectional studies and at least one good longitudinal study. Point being, we cannot copy and paste strategies that rely on social behavior from one country (and one culture) onto an entirely different country (with entirely different culture) and expect the same results.
@@searose6192 First, let me be clear that I completly agree with you that it would be foolish to copy paste strategies, there we are in 100% agreement.
However... ;D
Boring, but interesting reports from: SOM Institute, Ministry of Health and Social Affairs etc. Most releevnat for this topic of social trust and homogeneous populations, is probably the SOM reports that have been published since the 80s (som.gu.se/som_institute) which show that Swedes trust in institutions remains high (The trust has slowly degraded since the record figures from the 80s but appear stable som.gu.se/digitalAssets/1655/1655881_larmar-och-g--r-sig-till.pdf) and the Swedes are resistant to influence from crisis - as in even when something terrible happens the trust is barely effected - except for banks who still haven't recovered from the crisis in the -90 (jmg.gu.se/digitalAssets/1769/1769254_nr-83-hela-rapporten.pdf). Swedes trust in each other remains more or less unchanged for the last 25 years etc etc. Given the demographic shift Sweden has gone through the last 30 years one would expect something more dramatic, therefor I would like to ask you if you could perhaps share or give me the name of the longitudinal study you mentioned, in these Corona times we live in one might as well read a bit :D
@@henrik2518 Here are a few sources.
academic.oup.com/esr/article/32/1/54/2404332
Also this makes for very interesting reading, and points to Macro vs Micro exposure to outgroups and points to one of several reasons why social trust remains high in Sweden despite recent increases in diversity (though it should be noted that even with the increasing diversity you mentioned, Sweden is still over 80% Swedish....very homogenous) this study discussed the fact that social distrust increases when people are directly exposed to cultural diversity within 80 km of their hometowns, but in countries (I believe the study uses Denmark for some of it's data) where the overall exposure of the population to cultural diversity has been low (Sweden would be a good example) the macro effect at the society level is minimal, while the local micro effect is significantly greater. Here is that one: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122415577989
Happy to dig through my Google history and find more for you👍
@@henrik2518 I also would like to add that while studies paint one picture, I would very much welcome hearing your personal observations since you are actually in Sweden 😉👍
At 48:56 No sorry, that's wrong. If there is a UBI then there is no "point along the line where someone isn't getting an income" that's simply false. *UNIVERSAL* Basic income gives *EVERYONE* at *EVERY POINT* along the line an income. Does it wipe out explorative profits the banks were squeezing out of the populace? Yes, perhaps, but each individual employee of those banks still has a solid income to keep them from starving and they won't lose *their* homes either.
I have learnt a lot from Mark Blyth over the years but now much prefer Jim Rickards, who seems to have much deeper and detailed information to impart.
I think some of what Mark says is spurious, for instance he seems to think we got over the 2008 crash, when the evidence suggests not.
The other notion of debt not being a problem, and presents how the huge money printing didn't cause inflation in the real economy, as feared, so therefore was ok providing the economy can grow itself at a pace to outdo the debt. He cites post world war 2, and has on occasion cited earlier dates of growth post war which cancelled out terrible debt.
I think you'll find what Jim Rickards says regards this tension between money printing and lack of inflation more viable. It seems Mark Blyth conforms to modern monetary theory - MMT, which I think is an error.
We are not going to grow ourselves out of anything. We are a mature economy with low growth, post the industrial revolution, so can't hold so much debt.
The big question was how long will Dollar hold it's world reserve status for and at what point will the whole system fail at.
Doesn't Rickards pretty much just talk about buying gold as a hedge against literally everything? He reminds me of those doomsday preachers who figured out the exact date the world will end...multiple times.
I guess we'll see, if this crisis doesn't lead to hyperinflation and massive increase in the value of gold then probably nothing will. If it does then I'll stop listening to Blyth and take up the mantle of Rickards.
Rickards recommends putting only 10% of your capital into gold, it's more Peter Schiff and Lynette Zang, oh and Celente who are gold bugs.
This of course relies on the hyperinflation collapse but Rickards talks about the IMF perhaps introducing their currency as the replacement, the SDR - special drawing rights as the way it might go.
On the other hand the US can I am sure hold more debt, if you compare it to Japan's debt to GDP ratio.
I just get irritated listening to Mark Blyth now since I am listening to so many at the moment and think he seems to gloss over so many points or just takes them as givens.
FB and other social networks need to be made into public utilities. Data cannot be sourced without the ultimate producer, the countless users. Currently that producer is not being paid for the data that they produce. Plus that producer of data, paid the taxes that allowed and encouraged the universities to develop these systems since the 60's. Heads of these corporations have been getting what is basically a free ride.
Harry Potter and Alan Dershowitz had a
Baby that grew up to talk to Mark Blyyhe
47:26 Nunya Business xD i died ahaha hadn't noticed the first time.