Stay cautious. Stay smart. Stay home. Stay clean. And share this video with everyone you can. Lives may depend on it! I'm on Twitter/Instagram: @DrJoeHanson @okaytobesmart
"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate." - Michael O. Leavitt, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, 2007. We can do this people.
In a cruel twist of irony the more we do before things get bad will end up making things not as bad, and the tragic moment afterwards is that people will comment about how we over reacted.
When it comes to any exponential disaster, I would always rather find out we overreacted than find out we reacted too slow or not enough. Pandemics in particular are not to be taken lightly.
Yeah you're right it was very interesting analogy Joe used.. I never observed a pond to do what Joe explain.. I don't know the math he did to explain this, I just nodded my head and said that makes sense even though I didn't stand it. thanks again for explaining all this to us Joe take care
@@georgeplagianos6487 I don't think Lilypads really spread that fast. But stuff like algae, now _that_ can spread fast. You think it's no big issue, then suddenly you've got to get to work getting rid of that stuff, and it feels like it happened overnight.
I was one of the people that thought it was media hype too. But that's exactly how it's supposed to feel, hence the name "paradox of pandemics." If we had all taken the overreactive measures and starved the virus, we would have thought we did all that for nothing and it was a silly overreaction, but we would also not be quarantined with 200k+ deaths in the US. On the next playthough of this game, a counter-intuitive quarantine should be the new meta.
That's why its annoying when the news reports the number of new cases a day, rather than how fast its growing. It's a lot more useful to know the growth rate (ish) when we see if the response is working.
Well if you follow it from day to day you can work out the difference pretty easily. But yeah, it would be good if they provided both. I think some do.
@Ash Z Yes, fights between politicians that have caused more millions of people to die than would have been the case had we been careful. And yes, it's like the flu, but more contagious and a little more deadly. And this is not over yet, fortunately no one has died in my family, but I do know people who have lost relatives.
& the sad thing is theres SO MANY people that still aren't taking this seriously, and probably wont until way more people die. it's too late to contain this.
@@jinxthedestroyr2405 well so far it's killing 10 people a week in the US. It'll get worse before it gets better but probably not as much as people have been manipulated into thinking The flu kills 300 a week on average. I guess we should all quarantine every flu season.
descentplayer, yeah but this is like, not necessary for everyday life. Also, this is coming from a BC Calc student so don’t attack me for saying math is not useful😂
@@gianinguillo1902 True. I graduated college, and honestly most of math classes are utterly useless, unlike other subjects like science, history, and design. Everything above basic algebra is useless for the everyday person. But history, art/design, and science actually has a far greater direct impact on everybody's day to day lives and affects how they vote, etc.
The really important skill for mathematicians is making pretty visualisations that people who don't get the math can understand. Or the skill of accessing someone who has that skill.
I live in America and our situation would have been a whole lot better if the idiot in charge had listened to reason. But I understand *that* is an unreasonable expectation. If this debacle doesn't get him kicked out of office, I don't know what the hell will!
It because this video is all hypothetical and is missing lots of outside variables. It like when the doctor gives you the worst case senario what can happen but it never does, but he has too. If the doctor doesnt give you worst case senerio he/she can be face with a lawsuit from the less 1 percent chance when a patient dies from a very rare weird anomaly like being allergic to the medication.
@@tartaru749 why do you say "nowadays", do you think it used to be different at any other point in time. People have always been lazy and lacked an attention span
A strong action in January may have helped. Once it's spread across the country, it's too late. Now, they don't expect to reduce the people who will be infected, just trying to spread it out over time in a foolish attempt to "save hospital beds/ventilators" while harming hundreds of millions.
The UK government said they would impose drastic measures when the time is right, but not too much. The people protested and now feel powerful and heard. The UK government complies and implemented exactly what it had planned all along, but now with the explicit consent, neay: demand, of the people.
Well you clicked on the video which means you are interested in learning which means you aren’t okay with the knowledge you have rn which means you are somehow smart.
Pedro Metro2017 Look, I absolutely get where you’re coming from, because loads of people in my generation are idiots. But there are idiots in every generation. I’m a young teen and I haven’t left my house or seen my friends in three weeks. I’m miserable, but I’m following the protocols and doing what I know is best for society. So please try and refrain from making judgmental generalizations, thank you. Especially considering I’m here watching this to educate myself beyond what I read on the news every day. I don’t know many other teens who read the news (and no, I didn’t only just start reading the news because of COVID-19. I’ve been reading the news since I was ten).
I'm sharing it on Twitter. Bastards have me shadowbanned though. I would suggest everybody sharing it on social media wherever you can.👍 Take care everyone and God bless.
My newsfeed in a nutshell, "it's just a flu. No big deal''. Ok, let's just say it's "a" flu that's spreading like wildfire throughout the world. Why would YOU wanna overwhelm the healthcare workers. In some countries like Italy, they're so overwhelmed that they're actually forced to choose who to save. Stay indoors, save lives. Believe me, I KNOW it's not easy. I haven't worked all month but if we as a population don't stop the spread self isolating, sooner or later, the lockdown is gonna be forced on us by our governments.
Thank you for this. Many people need to watch it. Here in Milan we’ve been in complete lock-down for almost a month, we’ve been called crazy, lazy, over-reacting, fools, etc. The reality is that the city of Bergamo didn’t have enough space and manpower to dig enough graves for the bodies last week. Please stay at home people. Also, don’t believe the “only old people get sick” narrative. Here hospitals are now filled with people in their 40s. Stay safe and stay smart everybody :)
I feel horrible for you & your people, I'm very sorry for you. Do you know why you've had such a tragically high rate of casualties there though? That doesn't seem to have happened in a lot of other places, plus it seems to be concentrated at a very high percentage in a small area of the north. Do you know why? Again, I wish the very best for you & the entire world loves & supports you!! Be strong!
chris smith - the news says Italy has a high elderly population and that there are preexisting health conditions like smoking that makes covid-19 worse. Also, the government didn’t lock stuff down quickly enough. US is likely headed in the same route. The mortality rate is high because of the lack of medical gear like respirators due to not flattening the curve fast enough. Doctors are having to choose who to save. www.wired.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard/amp I recommend the Joe Rogan podcast where he has the infections disease expert on: m.ruclips.net/video/E3URhJx0NSw/видео.html
@@umiluv ok, so Italy has a higher than normal elderly population, many of which have compromised health. Yeah, they say the US is headed the same way, but I'm actually not so sure. Surely they will have many tragic losses, but...I think there's more to this than what it seems. It doesn't make sense that..literally half of the casualties from this virus have occurred in 2 small(relatively)areas: Wuhan & Northeastern Italy. Why is that? I mean, the whole of Italy prepared the same way, right? Anyway, I feel terrible for you...please be strong
In the midst of chaos and fear, don’t forget about the humor in life. Long term stress will not help your immune system. *Laugh.* And smile, too. As you may have heard already, be alert, not anxious. We are all in this together.
Yep the long-term stress has slowed my digestive system to a near halt, and now being stuck at home has made it worse :( ... advice anyone? I've tried fiber and more water :-)
@@dopeblacktherapist Exercise indoors. Listen to pleasant music. Stop watching videos about the Coronavirus for a day or two... or watch 30 minutes and then stop! Play some video games. Eat some nuts and try not to think too much about the plan-demic. This is what they wanted.
That's basically always true, so much so that there are many sayings with that theme. "An ounce of prevention beats a pound of cure." "A stitch in time saves nine." Also, somewhat related: "Penny wise, pound foolish." Somehow though, people never learn this lesson.
what i learned from this: we need to increase the capacity in our healthcare system after this providing it with greater funding and more encouragement for people wanting to go to med. school to result in a higher spike being able to be controlled by the healthcare system resulting in a shorter amount of time for the pandemic/epidemic to last and therefore shorter amount of time for quarantining/lockdowns/isolation and to make sure our economy is still alive so we don't have to send out stimulus checks that appear out of thin air in order to get our company into more debt and to make sure that cities that thrive on economies such as tourism won't get hit so bad so that the cycle of poverty doesn't hit so many people so we can keep our people, healthcare system, and economy alive because plenty of people live paycheck to paycheck and without their job the cycle of poverty just gets worse resulting in less taxes going to the government and less money going to the healthcare system...
IMO, we don't need excess capacity for a 1 in a 100 year event. We need better prevention, better testing, better tracking and a Public Health act to ensure compliance. Also, higher standards of public education. Look at countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Australia and NZ - all back to mostly normal in July 2021. Medicare for all and sick-time-off would also help tremendously since sick people can get treated with no reservation.
@@JK-tk8cg better dont rely on vaccine,it wont be soon,at least not before the year end. Just to everything you can to protect yourself and your family.
It would kill 60 million people if somehow everyone got infected according to South Korea numbers-which are the most accurate ones with the highest number of tests. Though, if we didn't quarantine it is highly unlikely that everyone would get infected due to herd immunity; too many people would become immune for the virus to get to everyone. The only problem with the quarantine is the effect it will have on society and the economy; experts project 30% unemployment rates, i.e. worse than the Great Depression. What happens after we've flattened the curve, will more people die from the economic and social collapse or not? Will we be able to recover or not?
The sheer amount of suffering the collapse could cause is so unpredictable that we could not know if it would outweigh the virus's 0.5% mortality rate.
The best part of this video is that it jumps right into the point immediately. 20 seconds in and you have explained it better than most of the stuff out there in the news!
My aunt has coronavirus and is currently on a ventilator for it. She’s in stable condition, but she likely wouldn’t be if the healthcare system was overwhelmed. I encourage everyone to practise social distancing, because it could be the difference between life and death for countless vulnerable people, like the elderly, immune compromised, or chronically ill. We need to band together to change the course of this pandemic
@@simonclasse9435 To add without wanting to brain you, it kills healthy people too. Around 15% of everyone who gets this, young or old can barely breathe and need ventilators. We have 8 in this country per 100,000 people. In China due to lack of said ventilators it killed slightly under 1% of 1-9 year olf kids who got it too. It kills anyone and if we don't atop ot spreading as fast as it is it'll kill hundreda of thousands in a mere few months. Which wont just horrible in itself it sill smash the economy, is already weak from many lther factors. When money as a value can barely by you anything that's when a lot more will die.
I remember when SARS was being spread in 2002 and my 10th grade algebra teacher explained this in detail at that time as well. Edit: Mr. Ray of LA Unified School District I just shouted you out and unexpectedly got all these likes! Well done, #neverforgotten
i was in 2nd grade at the time so i don't remember the SARS outbreak, was there the same response as COVID19? in terms of grocery stores being wiped out events being cancelled?
I watch this video yesterday day and shred it with several members of my family. This is what I said in the email: “This is a short You Tube that explains exponential growth. It’s explained very well and easy to understand. It also contains a real example of how the measures being applied to COVID19 have worked in the past.” This is what one of my sisters said after watching the video: “This is Awesome!!! Everyone, everywhere needs to see this!! “
Thank you. I'm an Italian (and a subscriber) living in quarantine in Rome, and I can therefore testify to how important it is to provide quality information during this time of crisis. Take care and stay at home.
@d b The part with the curves. He made it seem like these were the only possibilites but he gave no reference from pandemics like the Black Plague. One possible scenario could be that it would both have a significant increase above the healthcare capacity and be under a longer time at the same time. I dont know why RUclipsrs just like him seclude such possible scenarios. Is it just to calm people down?
Basically since we see it does not just choose who to attack any, it can hit anyone anytime as we have seen so far. and they rather have u be away from anyone possible and try stay healthy washing hands and all. cause if u get then u gotta get a vaccine for it that they not got ready yet. unlike a reg cold or flu that run the course and get flushed out, this just sits inisde u it seems and waits to ruin u more till u got a med to attack and get rid of it some how.
Now we have people rallying at our state capitols to re-open and get back to work. I saw a lady being interviewed on TV at one of these rally literally saying "I ain't afraid of this, the wind is blowing the sun is shining, you can hug me or shake my hand or even sneeze on me I don't care". What is it with the arrogance of some human beings.?
Yeah, "avoid gatherings of large people".... on elf and safety grounds! I've been doing it for a couple of days now, yesterday I was Dopey, Bashful then Sleepy. This morning I was Happy, I'm now Grumpy.... but thus far not Sneezy so I don't need the Doc. 😜
I work as a teacher and I attempted to explain this "flattening the curve" principle to my pupils (in Czech) after the schools in the Czech republic were closed last week.
Well, so many people think it's absurd that we responded "drastically" when we did. If the U.S. had tried to do it as early as 1/20, NOBODY would have listened. Unfortunately...
@@AbraSings We should've isolated the patient and their contacts. We should've tested more people and isolated anyone with the disease. The economic damage from this crisis was avoidable.
I'm one of those who underestimated the threat of COVID-19 and is now guilty about it. Thanks for this informative video, I watched it until the end. Never underestimate the power of exponential growth! Stay at home and keep being safe guys.
@@Leffe123 the media sensationalizes everything. If the media had suddenly changed their attitude, and reported this in a serious professional way (like how news was presented 40 years ago). People would have would have reacted with...oh crap, this must be serious.
You say "I watched it until the end" as if it was some exceptional thing to do, maybe you have issues with attention span... but watching a video till the end is perfectly normal.
Truly enlightening. I'm embarrassed to say that I was one of those people who fell for the whole "everybody's just overreacting to the sensationalized media" mentality. This outbreak is actually pretty serious, and I'm beginning to understand why. Thanks for the informative video!
@@cyborgpunkmonk u being reckless with simplistic overreactions to complex intertwining issues... like the understanding the rate of viral spread (exponential growth of infected) .. same for scale of complexities of thought ... adding a few more contingencies and a bit more resolution makes the processing REQUIREd go up exponentially and u do not have any exponents to spare 🤣😁
Was there too when I first heard about this about a month ago... Let's be honest, it's sensationalism most of the time and lots of media outlets were spreading misinformation already, and we've gotten desensitized to bad news. What's important is that you can change opinion and act quick enough though.
I am a citizen in Seoul, Korea who's been self-isolating for the last three weeks and I've knitted one full-size sweater and a scarf during this self-quarantine because my workplace has closed for a precautionary cause. If we try to stay calm and practice social distancing, I believe we can beat this covid-19! Dr.Joe, thanks all the time for the fun informative video lectures! :)
Guy in my local ASDA supermarket in the UK told me yesterday they were 24 hours behind because of muppets panic buying.That equates to empty shelves. And we're in the early stages here. Online delivery services should now be reserved for seniors and at-risk individuals only. 7% of total grocery sales are online here. We've got the equivalent of a private sector meals-on-wheels service to keep seniors indoors if we can do it right but there's no plan.
@@nosuchthing8 If you could even fit 6 months of groceries in your car. you don't need 6 months of groceries. If you stockpile too much then someone else goes without.
@@nosuchthing8 no one needs 6 months of food, and even if one did, there isnt that much food that would last that long, people are cleaning out cheese, hotdogs, meat, hotdogs arent much for an issue, but meat in general is, there is no way meat can survive that long, its good to stock up on food but you gotta do it smart and not overly crazy to the point where no one else can get it for them as well, you cant just think about yourself, you think about others, if you just think about yourself, youre putting others in a dangerous situation of having to check the stores daily until they too can be stocked up with things they need, the chance of getting sick growing with each passing day they have to go out to the store because no one knows how to spare food for others in a panicked state of mind so really, that just helps the virus spread because people dont know how to share ._.
Thank you! My 68 year old mother that is out of breath after 1 flight of stairs on a normal day was not taking this serious enough. I've shown her this video and she is taking immediate and drastic action to quarantine herself in her house for the next 2 weeks atleast. This video may have saved my mothers life. Thank you. This video has convinced her. I can not thank you enough.
@@Hallowed_Ground The funny thing is, ever since my mother agreed to quarantine herself thanks to this video, I have been more calm. It even improved my sleep. Interesting thing that, protecting what you care about results in more piece of mind.
@@Hallowed_Ground We're living in an odd time. We all do odd things when presented with the unknown. "When you're going through hell, keep going." We're all on this same earth together.
I’ve explained this to my colleagues, friends and parents. None of them get it and are all just going on as normal. I’m so frustrated. Stay healthy smart people.
I think most of those people (including myself) are under the impression that they are not in a particularly high risk category of dying if they acquire the virus, nor do they have intimate contact with people who may be at such elevated risk. Hence, we continue about our normal business just as we have done with every other pandemic approximately every two years or so. The effects of tanking the global economy are going to have far worse implications than a few thousand people getting sick and kicking the bucket. Besides, those people aren't intentionally infecting others. I agree that we should take precautions but we shouldn't stop EVERYTHING under the sun on the possibility of getting the equivalent of an extra-virulent form of pneumonia.
This will have huge economic and political consequences no matter what happens, because of people's ignorance and contrarian logic. If the pandemic progressed as perfectly as it could be managed, people are going to react to what they see as over-reaction and the next crisis they will be far less likely to react intelligently. I don't know if it's possible to engineer a perfect storm, but we are the perfect sheep for it.
@@pawpaw2524 it's very easy to have this mentality until it's a loved one who gets infected. This isn't a normal flu, it is significantly more lethal and is forcing even young people (20s) without health conditions into hospitalization.
Just watched another RUclips on this where they said that "R" sometimes stand for "Removed" as in removed from the population of infectious people. This would include the dead.
Mine shut down over a week before any cases, we have 2 now. I think we're overreacting. I don't want to undermine the severity of Covid-19, but I do think we are acting out of panic and not at all rationally.
I feel like the truth has to be somewhere in the middle.... Stopping interacting is definitely good. But there has been lots of overreacting that has created a lot of havok.
WHO : We urge countries that has been infected already to close schools, churches, and gatherings to stop COVID-19 from spreading. People from my country : Hey schools out, want to go to the mall?
In my country, people went to the beach. The beaches were packed. Also, people went to bars and discos at night. Absolutly clueless. @Flaca Diabla He's using his single neuron as best as he can alright? :D
@@ismt9390 yesterday the mall was open and it was just full of kids off from school running around and touching everything and of course not buying anything. Now the mall is closed.
Ahhh @1:50, that piece of information was lost on other videos and explanations I watched/read. The amount of people in the 2 different curves is the same, but the time frame of how long the outbreak lasts is different. Thank you :)
Only with vaccine, but is not about beating, is about how many worst case, which required hospital we get in same time. And please do not lie, if you could have contact with virus, say it in front, because worse case is to have doctors or nurse get sick because you not tell that you may be infected. (virus spread before you get even symptoms)
The first step towards wisdom is when you realise there is much you do not know. The day you think you know it all is the day you become a fool. Welcome to the community of learners. 😀
Or where it is rightly applied... i.e. the video describes the exponential spread of a much more deadly virus than this... lack of understanding exponential growth as well as identifying important data points... those together the HALLMAKS of the dumb
Jude Hindi as a Florida man myself. I’m not laughing, I’m not laughing that every Cuban that touches soil also touches our politics. If you give Cubans full citizenship you might as well give every illegal immigrant full citizenship wtf. Now Cubans are the majority in the Florida vote, not whites not blacks not Europeans, Cubans. Florida is basically Cuba
Sorry, I need to go out, just once, once to the mall to get animal crossing, without animal crossing well I’d probably be fine, but I need it. Nobody will be at the mall anyway, I’m sorry, but this is my quest, my goal, I need animal crossing
1st curve is Leptokurtic, 2nd is Mesokurtic (which he did not show), 3rd is Platykurtic. if everything is allowed to work at a free play of nature than most probably the curve will be leptokurtic.
It's a pity that in the past our media has desensitized us, and now that there's cause for actual concern, and action, we've stopped listening, because we think it's an exaggeration. (*Note to not panic, just awareness and precautions: there is a healthy middle-ground between a false sense of security and panic.) Even now, the media is often not impartial and focused on entertainment, and saying what they believe people "want to hear about the virus," and perhaps even setting us against each other so that we don't think to look at them. I was happy to find a source of knowledge in this channel that conveyed information in an understanding and rational manner- concern, not panic. Truly noble!! Media can be used for good!
The truth about mathematics is that they are pretty commonsensical, at least up to a point (which is way way way beyond calculus). If someone is comfortable with the basic stuff (high school algebra and a lil bit of trigonometry), understanding calculus is not that hard. It shouldn't strike you as weird that you understand :)
This is phenomenal information and presented so well with the graphs. Also, great lighting especially the hair/rim light, whoever set that up, give him a high elbow!
To OP and everyone else struggling with this: this is an OCD "checking" compulsion related to anxiety. Does not necessarily mean you have OCD, but this is a very typical OCD behavior. Knowing the answers does not alleviate your anxiety, but you still seek them and keep doing the math. Find someone to talk to and avoid watching coverage of the virus. Stay safe.
Just announced here in Australia, next week will be a pupil free week. Only teachers are to go to work, and they are to try and work out how to deliver term 2 learning remotely.
at least they have their own study saying schools doesn't affect much the rate of contagion, even though the authors recognize the didn't modeled schools very well
Currently reside there and can confirm many (not all) people are still ignoring warnings, going out to bars and house parties since there's no work or school
Ikr, a few days ago while approaching the entrance to my job, a woman coughed in her bare hands and touched the revolving door! I was so tempted to say "👀 welp im calling off" lol
We had a meeting tonight at my job and even though my boss covered his mouth when he coughed, he used a packet that was meant to be used as an employee resource to do so.😖
Thank you so much for the simple pond and lilly pad explanation of exponential growth. Seeing it this way really hit home how fast things will happen. It is because of this video that my family began wearing masks and taking precautions early on and have been on guard this entire time. I shared this video with everyone I knew. If only every person could have seen this. Maybe we would have done better. Thank you.
@@Abi-gg7ry I don't think so wt the whole world in panic everything get shut down no mate you read history I been resurching weeks it's dangerous contagious do your research we wa just talking about with friends today it will get Evan worse . no vaccine until a year so how many deadth rates will be around the world simalier to this my foot you make me ugh
4:33 , at last we have reached the respectable stage where video creators are referencing other video creators explicitly! Congratulations! 5:59 , excellent analogy.
This makes so much sense. I believed the experts who said we needed to close everything down and have social distancing but I really had only a vague idea why. This video explains perfectly.
there are not that many tests to go around. and the cost/ strain on basic supplies needed to do the tests make it less of a priority/ option. but just because you cover your eyes doesn't mean its not there.
Yep, I guarantee there are probably thousands walking around with the virus and not even knowing it due to the symptoms not being severe. With the drastic changes in weather it brings on colds and allergies which some people are accustomed to so they don't think anything of it. So the numbers of cases are drastically lower than they would be if everyone was tested.
@Arduino Stein Are you saying he is right to forego testing because knowing that you're sick will cause the spread to quicken? Because the opposite has been proven to be true.
@@lauracapelete9336 damnit that ruins what I said then, sigh... nvm then I take what I said back, gawww... Why do I always attack people online am I that troubled? How pathetic is it for someone to simply attack others through comments Man I gotta re-evaluate my life But first I'm hungry
Amazing video. I love all your videos, but this one was particularly great because it is also so current and important, and applies to EVERYONE in the world during this crisis. So many daft people never seem to get this. They don't see the seriousness of the situation, and think people are overreacting and even call it a hoax - just because they don't know anyone that's sick and because they themselves are young enough to not be in the most critical risk groups. That pond analogy was brilliant, and perfectly sums up that "everything is perfect, until it isn't". The movie Contagion (2011) also said it brilliantly, something like: "We'd rather wake up tomorrow to news that we overreacted once again, and be humiliated in the media, than waking up realizing we didn't do enough".
Please, PLEASE add subtitles to other languages too. There's so much misinformation around here in Brazil. I would love to share this video with everyone I know
Young people take this virus seriously. It can still be transmitted by people that have no symptoms. In the United States we are on lockdown. Please do not hoard the toilet paper, there is plenty. Enjoy staying home and spending time with loved ones, orchids and fish you work so hard for. Everyone stay healthy and laugh.
Flower with sunglasses Not mandatory. No one will stop you, but all the nonessential businesses in my area are closed. The less physical contact with people the safer you will be.
Stay cautious. Stay smart. Stay home. Stay clean. And share this video with everyone you can. Lives may depend on it!
I'm on Twitter/Instagram: @DrJoeHanson @okaytobesmart
It's Okay To Be Smart hello first comment person
It's Okay To Be Smart I will!
Hello
Great video. But why do the people at the beginning look like they have pregnancy tests in their mouths? jk
Thank you
Well thought out and informative. Thank you for not trying to sensationalize it and just being straight forward.
This 8 minute video is more informative than 2 weeks of cable news.
ALI ISMAIL never trust the news tbh
true
You spelled "decades" wrong
perfect.
@@midohatem57 When did he'/she ever say decades?
"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate." - Michael O. Leavitt, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, 2007.
We can do this people.
In a cruel twist of irony the more we do before things get bad will end up making things not as bad, and the tragic moment afterwards is that people will comment about how we over reacted.
@@Mike__B And how insulting is that with so many grieving?
When it comes to any exponential disaster, I would always rather find out we overreacted than find out we reacted too slow or not enough. Pandemics in particular are not to be taken lightly.
hello
RUclips DIY face shields and masks
I was one of the people that thought all measures were an overreaction. Using the pond example opened my eyes thank you!
Yeah you're right it was very interesting analogy Joe used.. I never observed a pond to do what Joe explain.. I don't know the math he did to explain this, I just nodded my head and said that makes sense even though I didn't stand it. thanks again for explaining all this to us Joe take care
George Plagianos joe really knows that it is okay to be smart
See, see what i did there
No?
No?
Okay .....
How do you feel about it now?
@@georgeplagianos6487 I don't think Lilypads really spread that fast. But stuff like algae, now _that_ can spread fast. You think it's no big issue, then suddenly you've got to get to work getting rid of that stuff, and it feels like it happened overnight.
I was one of the people that thought it was media hype too. But that's exactly how it's supposed to feel, hence the name "paradox of pandemics."
If we had all taken the overreactive measures and starved the virus, we would have thought we did all that for nothing and it was a silly overreaction, but we would also not be quarantined with 200k+ deaths in the US.
On the next playthough of this game, a counter-intuitive quarantine should be the new meta.
That's why its annoying when the news reports the number of new cases a day, rather than how fast its growing. It's a lot more useful to know the growth rate (ish) when we see if the response is working.
Alex Turlais yes!! People see numbers and get petrified. This is why I love statistics
Well if you follow it from day to day you can work out the difference pretty easily. But yeah, it would be good if they provided both. I think some do.
The number of new cases IS the growth rate.
The TOTAL number of cases, that's not the growth rate.
Why can’t the news deliver it like this instead of creating mass panic
Because nobody wants to read boring "math".
Its not mass panic. Without lockdown,by now ,we could have millions of infected instead of 250k.
By definition of the word 'mass' there is mass panic as evidenced by the number of people panic-buying in shops.
TRPs/ratings
Because the media itself is a kind of virus.
When you wash your hands clean your PHONES!
Definitely! Good advice!
Good mention tho, coz no one talks about how your phones have more germs, and bacteria and possibly virus than a door knob.
What can I use? I’m unfortunately out of wipes...
alli cdrn do you have tissues and a sanitizer whose alcohol content is 70% or more
@@onelastcherry Alcohol. Or a damp washcloth with a tiny bit of soap. Be sure to avoid getting moisture in the USB opening.
Can we get here?
_Narrator: They could not._
HAHA
STTTTOOOPPPP ✋😂
Just 2 more weeks to flatten the curve
3 months later: No, we cant.
@Ash Z Yes, fights between politicians that have caused more millions of people to die than would have been the case had we been careful. And yes, it's like the flu, but more contagious and a little more deadly. And this is not over yet, fortunately no one has died in my family, but I do know people who have lost relatives.
Another 3 months: still no
@@patrickloney4426 Now, DEFINITELY NOT
@@alternateuniverse656 now, sorta yes
@@duckton440 now: ooooo delta so scary you need to lock yourself in your house again because spoooooky variants
I'm afraid that people who should watch this, won't.
@ಠ_ಠ Your profile name is in my native language "Kannada". ಠ --> we pronounce it as "Tah" ನಮ್ಮ ಕನ್ನಡ ನಮ್ಮ ಹೆಮ್ಮೆ 😊
And they're the one who will probably wind up getting it...smh ...
Mia Malone i have it 😔
It's not though. It is very misleading
Puppets
I like that expression.
Everything looks fine, until it's no longer fine.
I like the idea that the precautions look stupidly over the top precisely because they are successful.
It's called normalcy lull.
I've been following this since January, everyone started panicking way too late
& the sad thing is theres SO MANY people that still aren't taking this seriously, and probably wont until way more people die. it's too late to contain this.
@@jinxthedestroyr2405 well so far it's killing 10 people a week in the US. It'll get worse before it gets better but probably not as much as people have been manipulated into thinking
The flu kills 300 a week on average.
I guess we should all quarantine every flu season.
It makes me so sad that so many people in America don’t seem to understand this
The whole idea of "14 days to stop the spread" aged like a jug of milk on the front porch of a floridian house
Math teachers finally have an indisputable answer to "when will I ever need to know this?"
#SadlyMathActuallyWorks
descentplayer, yeah but this is like, not necessary for everyday life. Also, this is coming from a BC Calc student so don’t attack me for saying math is not useful😂
@@gianinguillo1902 True. I graduated college, and honestly most of math classes are utterly useless, unlike other subjects like science, history, and design. Everything above basic algebra is useless for the everyday person. But history, art/design, and science actually has a far greater direct impact on everybody's day to day lives and affects how they vote, etc.
It's more statistics than mathematics, but whatever.
The really important skill for mathematicians is making pretty visualisations that people who don't get the math can understand. Or the skill of accessing someone who has that skill.
such a good explanation! but there’s a voice in my head that’s saying that the ppl who need to hear it most aren’t listening
I live in America and our situation would have been a whole lot better if the idiot in charge had listened to reason.
But I understand *that* is an unreasonable expectation.
If this debacle doesn't get him kicked out of office, I don't know what the hell will!
It because this video is all hypothetical and is missing lots of outside variables. It like when the doctor gives you the worst case senario what can happen but it never does, but he has too. If the doctor doesnt give you worst case senerio he/she can be face with a lawsuit from the less 1 percent chance when a patient dies from a very rare weird anomaly like being allergic to the medication.
Doug G KeifieB both of you mess off with that nonsense right now, not helping
yes, I think someo people nowadays are lazy to watch videos like these and they have an attention span of 5 secs.
@@tartaru749 why do you say "nowadays", do you think it used to be different at any other point in time. People have always been lazy and lacked an attention span
4:27 Sigmoid means "Shaped like Sigma". And Sigma is ancient Greek for "S" ...it is not a coincidence.
Exactly ! Great video ! Our Chefs are sharing tips too ; How to Boost Your Immune System | TODAY ? ruclips.net/video/Gmpih3kEwCk/видео.html
the chances are he knows if perfectly well, but pretends not to to be relatable
Its not Ancient Greek thats how u still pronounce S right now in Greek.
@@kristiangega7806 Well I guess it's both then.
me in calculus: i'll never need to know this in real life
coronavirus: hold my calculator
WHAAA
Bravo!
make sure you're wearing gloves before you take the calculator though
Coronavirus: Let me teach you about exponential growth
God, what is it with this conversational format for 'humour' on RUclips? It's not funny or original. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
"If serious measures are made before the situacion gets worse, they will say you overreact.
If they are made after, they will say you're too late"
Unless its explained why it is not overreacting. I did overreact before, but thanks to this I nolonger do.
@@peao010109 You cannot explain to a moron. I'm from the U.K..... we have experimental evidence to back that up.
A strong action in January may have helped. Once it's spread across the country, it's too late. Now, they don't expect to reduce the people who will be infected, just trying to spread it out over time in a foolish attempt to "save hospital beds/ventilators" while harming hundreds of millions.
The UK government said they would impose drastic measures when the time is right, but not too much. The people protested and now feel powerful and heard. The UK government complies and implemented exactly what it had planned all along, but now with the explicit consent, neay: demand, of the people.
@@homewall744 Am I reading that last part right? Isn't saving hospital beds etc. the exact thing that the video is recommending?
“Hey smart people!”
Me: *looking around me in a self-quarantine*
😅
@@soulsbourne ikr, going out to the beach at this period of time... Smh
Well you clicked on the video which means you are interested in learning which means you aren’t okay with the knowledge you have rn which means you are somehow smart.
@@Ka-ws5qj Facts.
Pedro Metro2017 Look, I absolutely get where you’re coming from, because loads of people in my generation are idiots. But there are idiots in every generation. I’m a young teen and I haven’t left my house or seen my friends in three weeks. I’m miserable, but I’m following the protocols and doing what I know is best for society. So please try and refrain from making judgmental generalizations, thank you. Especially considering I’m here watching this to educate myself beyond what I read on the news every day. I don’t know many other teens who read the news (and no, I didn’t only just start reading the news because of COVID-19. I’ve been reading the news since I was ten).
We took action on time in Argentina and we might one of the few countries to flatten the curve with fewer than 50 deaths.
GET THIS TRENDING NOW. IGNORANT PEOPLE NEED TO SEE THIS
I'm sharing it on Twitter. Bastards have me shadowbanned though. I would suggest everybody sharing it on social media wherever you can.👍
Take care everyone and God bless.
The so called "civilized" west like uk got it all wrong...they'll be calling for boris' head after this.
@@mannyfernandez6860 "herd immunity" is a bullshit imo.
My newsfeed in a nutshell, "it's just a flu. No big deal''. Ok, let's just say it's "a" flu that's spreading like wildfire throughout the world. Why would YOU wanna overwhelm the healthcare workers. In some countries like Italy, they're so overwhelmed that they're actually forced to choose who to save. Stay indoors, save lives. Believe me, I KNOW it's not easy. I haven't worked all month but if we as a population don't stop the spread self isolating, sooner or later, the lockdown is gonna be forced on us by our governments.
But the ignorant people will not watch a fake news video. Their priest or pastor would look at them with angry eyes if he learn that.
Thank you for this. Many people need to watch it. Here in Milan we’ve been in complete lock-down for almost a month, we’ve been called crazy, lazy, over-reacting, fools, etc. The reality is that the city of Bergamo didn’t have enough space and manpower to dig enough graves for the bodies last week. Please stay at home people. Also, don’t believe the “only old people get sick” narrative. Here hospitals are now filled with people in their 40s. Stay safe and stay smart everybody :)
Davide C. OMG 😳 that is horrifying!!!
I feel horrible for you & your people, I'm very sorry for you. Do you know why you've had such a tragically high rate of casualties there though? That doesn't seem to have happened in a lot of other places, plus it seems to be concentrated at a very high percentage in a small area of the north. Do you know why? Again, I wish the very best for you & the entire world loves & supports you!! Be strong!
chris smith - the news says Italy has a high elderly population and that there are preexisting health conditions like smoking that makes covid-19 worse. Also, the government didn’t lock stuff down quickly enough. US is likely headed in the same route.
The mortality rate is high because of the lack of medical gear like respirators due to not flattening the curve fast enough. Doctors are having to choose who to save.
www.wired.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard/amp
I recommend the Joe Rogan podcast where he has the infections disease expert on:
m.ruclips.net/video/E3URhJx0NSw/видео.html
@@umiluv ok, so Italy has a higher than normal elderly population, many of which have compromised health. Yeah, they say the US is headed the same way, but I'm actually not so sure. Surely they will have many tragic losses, but...I think there's more to this than what it seems. It doesn't make sense that..literally half of the casualties from this virus have occurred in 2 small(relatively)areas: Wuhan & Northeastern Italy. Why is that? I mean, the whole of Italy prepared the same way, right? Anyway, I feel terrible for you...please be strong
@@umiluv I'm sorry, those things aren't your problem, just take care of yourself and loved ones
In the midst of chaos and fear, don’t forget about the humor in life. Long term stress will not help your immune system. *Laugh.* And smile, too. As you may have heard already, be alert, not anxious. We are all in this together.
Thank u friend, don't know I have such a handsome friend.
Spirits. Lifted
Yep the long-term stress has slowed my digestive system to a near halt, and now being stuck at home has made it worse :( ... advice anyone? I've tried fiber and more water :-)
@@dopeblacktherapist Exercise indoors. Listen to pleasant music. Stop watching videos about the Coronavirus for a day or two... or watch 30 minutes and then stop! Play some video games. Eat some nuts and try not to think too much about the plan-demic. This is what they wanted.
Agreed, thanks for writing this 🇦🇺
"Hey smart people. . ."
Well, I'm watchin' anyway! 😶
My sweetest memory of the 2020 pandemic was when I thought lockdown would last 15 days.... aaah, those were the days :-)
The bright side is, being clean and hygienic is now the trend.
i assumed it all ready was .
@@jayk9777 sadly, you assumed wrong. It's actually pretty disgusting just how unhygienic a LOT of people really are.
lavender fields I use Everclear. lol
And people can't stand close together, yay!
for now. we'll go back to our disgusting selves eventually.
OMG. My math teacher said: “The best way to solve a problem is to prevent it.” He was actually right!
Hydra you are deadass if you don’t know how they’re doing better with this rn. They’re doing better than before
Hydra Yes but their effort to stop it is better than any other country
@@wlos4029 I agree murdering people who are infected is a "better" effort than any other country
That's basically always true, so much so that there are many sayings with that theme. "An ounce of prevention beats a pound of cure." "A stitch in time saves nine." Also, somewhat related: "Penny wise, pound foolish."
Somehow though, people never learn this lesson.
Hydra China has lowered their cases. We should stop holding a victim mentality and focus on lowering our coronavirus cases.
what i learned from this:
we need to increase the capacity in our healthcare system after this
providing it with greater funding and more encouragement for people wanting to go to med. school
to result in a higher spike being able to be controlled by the healthcare system
resulting in a shorter amount of time for the pandemic/epidemic to last
and therefore shorter amount of time for quarantining/lockdowns/isolation
and to make sure our economy is still alive
so we don't have to send out stimulus checks
that appear out of thin air in order to get our company into more debt
and to make sure that cities that thrive on economies such as tourism
won't get hit so bad so that the cycle of poverty doesn't hit so many people
so we can keep our people, healthcare system, and economy alive
because plenty of people live paycheck to paycheck
and without their job the cycle of poverty just gets worse
resulting in less taxes going to the government
and less money going to the healthcare system...
IMO, we don't need excess capacity for a 1 in a 100 year event. We need better prevention, better testing, better tracking and a Public Health act to ensure compliance. Also, higher standards of public education. Look at countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Australia and NZ - all back to mostly normal in July 2021.
Medicare for all and sick-time-off would also help tremendously since sick people can get treated with no reservation.
REPUBLICANS disagree with you. Everyone needs to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps - Mitch McConnell.
I hope people who really need to watch this, do watch it.
Share this among as many people as possible.
It seems that 2020 is going to be a wild ride.
Take care everyone, hopefully we can get through this.
Gordon Freeman Still better than life in City 17, right doc?
It's not about hope, it's about will. We *will* get through this.
@Divinital I'm an optimist.
@Divinital stop are u kidding me
200k out of 7.5 billion infected. That's 0.002%... yeah, we'll be just fine
Epidemiology 101:
The best answer to "how bad can this get" is "how about we don't find out"
Boti Gamer - Exactly! Let’s get this cure going ASAP!
😇🌎🙏🏻
@@JK-tk8cg better dont rely on vaccine,it wont be soon,at least not before the year end. Just to everything you can to protect yourself and your family.
Boti Gamer bad enough to kill 7 billion according to Georgia guidestones
It would kill 60 million people if somehow everyone got infected according to South Korea numbers-which are the most accurate ones with the highest number of tests. Though, if we didn't quarantine it is highly unlikely that everyone would get infected due to herd immunity; too many people would become immune for the virus to get to everyone. The only problem with the quarantine is the effect it will have on society and the economy; experts project 30% unemployment rates, i.e. worse than the Great Depression. What happens after we've flattened the curve, will more people die from the economic and social collapse or not? Will we be able to recover or not?
The sheer amount of suffering the collapse could cause is so unpredictable that we could not know if it would outweigh the virus's 0.5% mortality rate.
"No such thing as a global pandemic."
- flat earth society
Debunked!!!!
Im flat earth, and i believe pandemic, lol
@@rhozq its the global part he was taking issue with XD
If the earth was flat, cat's would have pushed everything over the edge by now 🐈
If the Earth was flat, I would've tossed myself over the edge by now.
jacque berkebile 🤣🤣🤣🤣
The best part of this video is that it jumps right into the point immediately. 20 seconds in and you have explained it better than most of the stuff out there in the news!
My aunt has coronavirus and is currently on a ventilator for it. She’s in stable condition, but she likely wouldn’t be if the healthcare system was overwhelmed. I encourage everyone to practise social distancing, because it could be the difference between life and death for countless vulnerable people, like the elderly, immune compromised, or chronically ill. We need to band together to change the course of this pandemic
I Hope and Pray Your Aunt gets better
let weak people confined and let normal people keep living their lives and immune themselves
@@simonclasse9435 Idiots like you is why it spreads.
Simon Classe weak
@@simonclasse9435 To add without wanting to brain you, it kills healthy people too. Around 15% of everyone who gets this, young or old can barely breathe and need ventilators. We have 8 in this country per 100,000 people. In China due to lack of said ventilators it killed slightly under 1% of 1-9 year olf kids who got it too. It kills anyone and if we don't atop ot spreading as fast as it is it'll kill hundreda of thousands in a mere few months. Which wont just horrible in itself it sill smash the economy, is already weak from many lther factors. When money as a value can barely by you anything that's when a lot more will die.
I remember when SARS was being spread in 2002 and my 10th grade algebra teacher explained this in detail at that time as well.
Edit: Mr. Ray of LA Unified School District I just shouted you out and unexpectedly got all these likes! Well done, #neverforgotten
Now that’s a good teacher
Wow, He/She was a really great Teacher.
I wish my teachers were like that.
SARS
i was in 2nd grade at the time so i don't remember the SARS outbreak, was there the same response as COVID19? in terms of grocery stores being wiped out events being cancelled?
I watch this video yesterday day and shred it with several members of my family. This is what I said in the email: “This is a short You Tube that explains exponential growth. It’s explained very well and easy to understand. It also contains a real example of how the measures being applied to COVID19 have worked in the past.” This is what one of my sisters said after watching the video: “This is Awesome!!! Everyone, everywhere needs to see this!! “
Thank you. I'm an Italian (and a subscriber) living in quarantine in Rome, and I can therefore testify to how important it is to provide quality information during this time of crisis. Take care and stay at home.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." -George Santayana
"And he who forgets will be destined to remember." -Eddie Vedder
Vince B you can’t remember something you haven’t learned though
And you send HIV and H1N1 to the world. Mers comes from Middle East, you idiot.
@@VinnMan yuck
The Santayana guy is smart. Do you know him?
A lot of people seriously need to see this.
Can some not watch it flippantly?
L Lawliet
Sending it to my anxious friends rn
It's not though. It is very misleading
@d b The part with the curves. He made it seem like these were the only possibilites but he gave no reference from pandemics like the Black Plague. One possible scenario could be that it would both have a significant increase above the healthcare capacity and be under a longer time at the same time. I dont know why RUclipsrs just like him seclude such possible scenarios. Is it just to calm people down?
Basically since we see it does not just choose who to attack any, it can hit anyone anytime as we have seen so far. and they rather have u be away from anyone possible and try stay healthy washing hands and all. cause if u get then u gotta get a vaccine for it that they not got ready yet. unlike a reg cold or flu that run the course and get flushed out, this just sits inisde u it seems and waits to ruin u more till u got a med to attack and get rid of it some how.
Now we have people rallying at our state capitols to re-open and get back to work. I saw a lady being interviewed on TV at one of these rally literally saying "I ain't afraid of this, the wind is blowing the sun is shining, you can hug me or shake my hand or even sneeze on me I don't care". What is it with the arrogance of some human beings.?
I’m sending to everyone. Thank you for this. So well explained. It’s not “dumbed down” and it’s not over my head either.
Wow, the truth without the fear factor. Everyone in the US needs to watch this. Very informative, without the hysteria.
Start watching news broadcasts from North Korea some of the best news casts I have seen. No hysteria just basic clear information
Most likely Trumptards
There are idiots in the replies.
@brajamtho757 Thanks to people like you the nation eventually needs to take tyrannical measurements like Italy and the PRC.
James George ah you mean the Bernie bros mostly, I agree.
"Avoid gatherings of large people"
What about crowds of _tiny_ people?
lol. Thanks for that. : )
Yeah, "avoid gatherings of large people".... on elf and safety grounds! I've been doing it for a couple of days now, yesterday I was Dopey, Bashful then Sleepy. This morning I was Happy, I'm now Grumpy.... but thus far not Sneezy so I don't need the Doc. 😜
Lol 👍 Well played!
I see you must be a connoisseur of the great George Carlin
If its more that 5... Get out.. Stay 6 feet away
I work as a teacher and I attempted to explain this "flattening the curve" principle to my pupils (in Czech) after the schools in the Czech republic were closed last week.
If it’s so important to act early, we should’ve taken these measures when the first US case was recorded on 1/20.
Well, so many people think it's absurd that we responded "drastically" when we did. If the U.S. had tried to do it as early as 1/20, NOBODY would have listened. Unfortunately...
@@AbraSings We should've isolated the patient and their contacts. We should've tested more people and isolated anyone with the disease. The economic damage from this crisis was avoidable.
Basically, people are stupid but think that they’re not
The Dunning-Kruger effect
We have a name of that...arrogant
Ancients called it hubris
I'm one of those who underestimated the threat of COVID-19 and is now guilty about it. Thanks for this informative video, I watched it until the end. Never underestimate the power of exponential growth! Stay at home and keep being safe guys.
Michael Mata right?
I did to, media tend to exaggerate everything so naturally i waved it off. It seems like The media was completely right this time
@@Leffe123 the media sensationalizes everything.
If the media had suddenly changed their attitude, and reported this in a serious professional way (like how news was presented 40 years ago).
People would have would have reacted with...oh crap, this must be serious.
I’m getting more worried, we need to do more like St. Louis; less like Philadelphia!!!
You say "I watched it until the end" as if it was some exceptional thing to do, maybe you have issues with attention span... but watching a video till the end is perfectly normal.
I need to come to this channel every evening to detox from stupidity.
This short video should be played on every tv channel instead of the news.
Truly enlightening. I'm embarrassed to say that I was one of those people who fell for the whole "everybody's just overreacting to the sensationalized media" mentality. This outbreak is actually pretty serious, and I'm beginning to understand why. Thanks for the informative video!
Hope you learned your lesson
This IS AN OVER REACTION ... fyi
@@M-dv1yj possibly in a sense, but one that will save many. Better than being reckless & lots more dying.
@@cyborgpunkmonk u being reckless with simplistic overreactions to complex intertwining issues... like the understanding the rate of viral spread (exponential growth of infected) .. same for scale of complexities of thought ... adding a few more contingencies and a bit more resolution makes the processing REQUIREd go up exponentially and u do not have any exponents to spare 🤣😁
Was there too when I first heard about this about a month ago... Let's be honest, it's sensationalism most of the time and lots of media outlets were spreading misinformation already, and we've gotten desensitized to bad news. What's important is that you can change opinion and act quick enough though.
I am a citizen in Seoul, Korea who's been self-isolating for the last three weeks and I've knitted
one full-size sweater and a scarf during this self-quarantine because my workplace has closed for a precautionary cause.
If we try to stay calm and practice social distancing, I believe we can beat this covid-19!
Dr.Joe, thanks all the time for the fun informative video lectures! :)
MzSonicjinn Lucky you. A lot of us can’t pay our bills if we stay at home
MzSonicjinn hope you manage to stay healthy!
You have a very nice healthcare system compared to my country.
Well done on the knitting 😎, your country is doing well with the mass testing. Great example to us all.
I understand South Korea has had the best government response in the world. Congrats on having a government who embrace experts and science.
The 'bucket of water' analogy at 5:52 was just beautiful. 👌🏼
This is something all of us need to remember. Thank you!
see what I THINK is over-reacting is everyone bum-rushing the stores ._.
Guy in my local ASDA supermarket in the UK told me yesterday they were 24 hours behind because of muppets panic buying.That equates to empty shelves. And we're in the early stages here.
Online delivery services should now be reserved for seniors and at-risk individuals only. 7% of total grocery sales are online here. We've got the equivalent of a private sector meals-on-wheels service to keep seniors indoors if we can do it right but there's no plan.
In a sense, when the gathering limits happen, it's best to take care of the shopping early.
Yeah but what if you need 6 months of food instead of 1
@@nosuchthing8 If you could even fit 6 months of groceries in your car. you don't need 6 months of groceries. If you stockpile too much then someone else goes without.
@@nosuchthing8 no one needs 6 months of food, and even if one did, there isnt that much food that would last that long, people are cleaning out cheese, hotdogs, meat, hotdogs arent much for an issue, but meat in general is, there is no way meat can survive that long, its good to stock up on food
but you gotta do it smart and not overly crazy to the point where no one else can get it for them as well, you cant just think about yourself, you think about others, if you just think about yourself, youre putting others in a dangerous situation of having to check the stores daily until they too can be stocked up with things they need, the chance of getting sick growing with each passing day they have to go out to the store because no one knows how to spare food for others in a panicked state of mind
so really, that just helps the virus spread because people dont know how to share ._.
Thank you!
My 68 year old mother that is out of breath after 1 flight of stairs on a normal day was not taking this serious enough.
I've shown her this video and she is taking immediate and drastic action to quarantine herself in her house for the next 2 weeks atleast.
This video may have saved my mothers life. Thank you. This video has convinced her. I can not thank you enough.
Okay Bob calm down now.
@@Hallowed_Ground The funny thing is, ever since my mother agreed to quarantine herself thanks to this video, I have been more calm.
It even improved my sleep.
Interesting thing that, protecting what you care about results in more piece of mind.
@@bobhope4288 You right man. I feel you, just got annoyed by your comment. Idk why though, haha
@@Hallowed_Ground We're living in an odd time. We all do odd things when presented with the unknown. "When you're going through hell, keep going."
We're all on this same earth together.
@@bobhope4288 When you're going through hell, keep going... because eventually you'll find the people who have anal sex.
the way you made the bucket diagram was absolutely genius, my anxiety has been through the roof but seeing this video has given me some reassurance rn
The way he said "Wash your hands. We'll talk about that soon" was so ominous...
I’ve explained this to my colleagues, friends and parents. None of them get it and are all just going on as normal. I’m so frustrated. Stay healthy smart people.
I think most of those people (including myself) are under the impression that they are not in a particularly high risk category of dying if they acquire the virus, nor do they have intimate contact with people who may be at such elevated risk. Hence, we continue about our normal business just as we have done with every other pandemic approximately every two years or so.
The effects of tanking the global economy are going to have far worse implications than a few thousand people getting sick and kicking the bucket. Besides, those people aren't intentionally infecting others. I agree that we should take precautions but we shouldn't stop EVERYTHING under the sun on the possibility of getting the equivalent of an extra-virulent form of pneumonia.
Your "colleagues, friends and parents" are right.
This will have huge economic and political consequences no matter what happens, because of people's ignorance and contrarian logic. If the pandemic progressed as perfectly as it could be managed, people are going to react to what they see as over-reaction and the next crisis they will be far less likely to react intelligently. I don't know if it's possible to engineer a perfect storm, but we are the perfect sheep for it.
I'm just going on as normal. People die every year from the flu, this is no different
@@pawpaw2524 it's very easy to have this mentality until it's a loved one who gets infected. This isn't a normal flu, it is significantly more lethal and is forcing even young people (20s) without health conditions into hospitalization.
Honestly, this should be played all across the globe.
the globe doesn't exist
True. News stations should play this video in every countries
This is RUclips, available globally except where viruses can't spread.
@@Zero11s Ahh, a flat earther we have found have we?
What? This nerdy talk? It’s anyway common knowledge. So keep your hysterics and mute this man.
"Can we get here?"
10 days later: No, but maybe if we had tried
I say it's impossible and we either die or have no life left. Or both
If everyone stayed totally locked down for long enough the virus would eventually just burn out of existence.
6:23 I actually also drains into D, the dead bucket in this case clearly.
The I bucket emptying would include those dying.
Just watched another RUclips on this where they said that "R" sometimes stand for "Removed" as in removed from the population of infectious people. This would include the dead.
I'll admit I thought my city was overreacting when it shut everything down after 5 cases.... But I get it now...
Totally. As the video has showed they have actually history to pull from to prevent deaths.
@brajamtho757 your hoax is an overreaction
Mine shut down over a week before any cases, we have 2 now. I think we're overreacting.
I don't want to undermine the severity of Covid-19, but I do think we are acting out of panic and not at all rationally.
I feel like the truth has to be somewhere in the middle.... Stopping interacting is definitely good. But there has been lots of overreacting that has created a lot of havok.
I thought my city was overreacting with 1 case
WHO : We urge countries that has been infected already to close schools, churches, and gatherings to stop COVID-19 from spreading.
People from my country : Hey schools out, want to go to the mall?
We know of a parent throwing a party but asking everyone to bring their own toilet paper and food. 😒
@@flacadiabla3193 LOL 😂
In my country so few people went to the mall last week that almost all the stores in the mall are closed.
In my country, people went to the beach. The beaches were packed.
Also, people went to bars and discos at night.
Absolutly clueless.
@Flaca Diabla He's using his single neuron as best as he can alright? :D
@@ismt9390 yesterday the mall was open and it was just full of kids off from school running around and touching everything and of course not buying anything. Now the mall is closed.
Ahhh @1:50, that piece of information was lost on other videos and explanations I watched/read. The amount of people in the 2 different curves is the same, but the time frame of how long the outbreak lasts is different. Thank you :)
Well. I watched this video in March, and it's July now. I don't know what to say anymore about what happened in the past 3 months.
To everyone reading this.
Stay safe.
Wash your hands.
And be calm.
We can beat this virus.
And clean your PHONE! Thanks for the best wishes.
edge lord don’t forget to exercise and keep your immune system strong 💪🏻
I agree with everyone
Only with vaccine, but is not about beating, is about how many worst case, which required hospital we get in same time.
And please do not lie, if you could have contact with virus, say it in front, because worse case is to have doctors or nurse get sick because you not tell that you may be infected.
(virus spread before you get even symptoms)
Username does not check out.
Thank you Joe - this is really important stuff and the "hole in the bucket" analogy is super helpful. 😷
Hey Deep Look! I love your videos!
I really like the pond explanation, too.
Thank you very much for sharing that! I hope as many people as possible to watch it.
This is the most BRILLIANT video ever. It should be required watching for every human on the planet.
“Hey, smart people.”
Me: guess I’m not supposed to be here.
Your smart
Intelligence is subjective. Therefore you should probably assume that you are smart but not "all knowing". There is a healthy balance! Cheers
Anyone seeing this video is smart :)
Then use this opportunity to educate yourself and learn a thing. It's not difficult. Then, use your knowledge to educate others. Win/Win
The first step towards wisdom is when you realise there is much you do not know. The day you think you know it all is the day you become a fool. Welcome to the community of learners. 😀
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - the late Professor Al Bartlett.
Just rewatched his vid. Very prophetic
Or where it is rightly applied... i.e. the video describes the exponential spread of a much more deadly virus than this... lack of understanding exponential growth as well as identifying important data points... those together the HALLMAKS of the dumb
*laughs in nuke*
This should be broadcast on tv 24_7
I used this video with my math students! Great summary and explanation on the virus and exponential/logistic growth. Thank you!
The flat earthers will survive.. they don't believe in curves
Too funny!
@@danielbarr9795 yeah it really is
Personally, I'm waiting for the anti-vaxxers to pipe up.
😂😂😂
@@xaenon nah. They all want the vaccine now lmao.
Moral of the story: stay home don’t be dumb, disinfect your home, wash your hands, and try to not spread the virus
*LAUGHS IN FLORIDA MAN*
And vote for Bernie because without healthcare for all we are fucked.
Jude Hindi as a Florida man myself. I’m not laughing, I’m not laughing that every Cuban that touches soil also touches our politics. If you give Cubans full citizenship you might as well give every illegal immigrant full citizenship wtf. Now Cubans are the majority in the Florida vote, not whites not blacks not Europeans, Cubans. Florida is basically Cuba
Action Basterd I’m Canadian but I 100000000% agree with that statement
Sorry, I need to go out, just once, once to the mall to get animal crossing, without animal crossing well I’d probably be fine, but I need it. Nobody will be at the mall anyway, I’m sorry, but this is my quest, my goal, I need animal crossing
1st curve is Leptokurtic, 2nd is Mesokurtic (which he did not show), 3rd is Platykurtic. if everything is allowed to work at a free play of nature than most probably the curve will be leptokurtic.
It's a pity that in the past our media has desensitized us, and now that there's cause for actual concern, and action, we've stopped listening, because we think it's an exaggeration. (*Note to not panic, just awareness and precautions: there is a healthy middle-ground between a false sense of security and panic.) Even now, the media is often not impartial and focused on entertainment, and saying what they believe people "want to hear about the virus," and perhaps even setting us against each other so that we don't think to look at them. I was happy to find a source of knowledge in this channel that conveyed information in an understanding and rational manner- concern, not panic. Truly noble!! Media can be used for good!
i never thought the day would come when you talk about calculus & derivatives and i can understand
He barely talked about calculus
@@eliodecolli no derivatives
The truth about mathematics is that they are pretty commonsensical, at least up to a point (which is way way way beyond calculus). If someone is comfortable with the basic stuff (high school algebra and a lil bit of trigonometry), understanding calculus is not that hard.
It shouldn't strike you as weird that you understand :)
BUT... In my day, it was "That moment when Algebra will save your life." It hasn't come yet.
Using an analogy, a talented musician can play all the right notes but to know the theory behind it far enriches them
Damn. “Tale of two cities” drops the mic
This time, Philadelphia canceled the St.Patricks parade. Hopefully no repeat of 1918.🤔
Watched this last spring... saw it again last night... we have learned that the pond is still filling up. We have to pay attention and stay safe...
This is phenomenal information and presented so well with the graphs. Also, great lighting especially the hair/rim light, whoever set that up, give him a high elbow!
This needs to be translated into multiple languages!! It's one of the best, if not the absolute best explanation of the pandemic
True.
2010 me in math class: I'll literally never use this information in my life!
2020 me in my room: *watching this video with a calculator on hand*
Fernando alves Me too I’m constantly calculating the ‘actual’ number of infected cases with different rates and stuff and it’s hella interesting
@@pleasestopcocomelon1798 for sure, sal Khan did a phenomenal video on that too
Fernando alves underrated comment!
To OP and everyone else struggling with this: this is an OCD "checking" compulsion related to anxiety. Does not necessarily mean you have OCD, but this is a very typical OCD behavior. Knowing the answers does not alleviate your anxiety, but you still seek them and keep doing the math. Find someone to talk to and avoid watching coverage of the virus. Stay safe.
Math is the most important stuff ever, reeeee.
2:36 "A lily pad"
No, sir. That's a Pacman
"that's why schools are being closed early on"
Australia: I'm gonna pretend I'm a boomer
Easter is nearly here, reckon school will stay in until then?
Same here in Canada. We’ve practically rolled up the sidewalks....
Just announced here in Australia, next week will be a pupil free week. Only teachers are to go to work, and they are to try and work out how to deliver term 2 learning remotely.
@@iamdave84 I see
at least they have their own study saying schools doesn't affect much the rate of contagion, even though the authors recognize the didn't modeled schools very well
Philadelphia ignored the warnings...
course they did
Philadelphia is becoming the new crazy state
And every [US] city is full of people who want to ignore the warnings.
Currently reside there and can confirm many (not all) people are still ignoring warnings, going out to bars and house parties since there's no work or school
Didn’t Spanish flu do terrible damage there a century ago?
@@CerpinTxt87 why did you put US in brackets?
Also there are so many pigs out there! Not washing their hands, Not caughing into their sleeves...even during this sensitive Time!!
@@projpotat8965 i think they probably mean humans
Farmers are too busy to teach pigs good habits.
That whole lack of washed hands will earn some of those people Darwin awards.
Ikr, a few days ago while approaching the entrance to my job, a woman coughed in her bare hands and touched the revolving door! I was so tempted to say "👀 welp im calling off" lol
We had a meeting tonight at my job and even though my boss covered his mouth when he coughed, he used a packet that was meant to be used as an employee resource to do so.😖
So informative and clear. This should be presented to every single person on the planet so we can all together manage this crisis. Good job.
Thank you so much for the simple pond and lilly pad explanation of exponential growth. Seeing it this way really hit home how fast things will happen. It is because of this video that my family began wearing masks and taking precautions early on and have been on guard this entire time. I shared this video with everyone I knew. If only every person could have seen this. Maybe we would have done better. Thank you.
Everyone is complaining about quarantine, but here's me with having nothing changed. Just doing me as I always have done.
Me too, cheers!
Cheers
Exactly
When staying at home, watching tv, and masturbating, has never felt this productive.
Introvert noises in the background
I never thought I'd see a time like this!
Stay safe people!
You don't remember h1n1/ swine flu?
@@Abi-gg7ry it was nowhere near like this mate
@@faridaaali6170 wrong. It was very similar. Read your history.
@@Abi-gg7ry I don't think so wt the whole world in panic everything get shut down no mate you read history I been resurching weeks it's dangerous contagious do your research we wa just talking about with friends today it will get Evan worse . no vaccine until a year so how many deadth rates will be around the world simalier to this my foot you make me ugh
@@Abi-gg7ry don't tx me back with your rubbish OK tx me in few month then I tell you who wrong rite stupid man
Thank you Dr. Joe and thank you PBS! A month later, this is still my go-to video for helping people understand the nature of this pandemic.
4:33 , at last we have reached the respectable stage where video creators are referencing other video creators explicitly! Congratulations!
5:59 , excellent analogy.
This makes so much sense. I believed the experts who said we needed to close everything down and have social distancing but I really had only a vague idea why. This video explains perfectly.
My city isn't testing anyone, so that "zero confirmed cases" makes everyone think it's all fine and good. 0
there are not that many tests to go around. and the cost/ strain on basic supplies needed to do the tests make it less of a priority/ option.
but just because you cover your eyes doesn't mean its not there.
@@Kittsuera what i'm saying is our mayor is telling lies to the public making them think its not in our city!!
FINALLY the des moines register did an article on this.. exposing Iowa's bullshit! Now ppl are starting to listen. A lot of precious time lost, though
Yep, I guarantee there are probably thousands walking around with the virus and not even knowing it due to the symptoms not being severe. With the drastic changes in weather it brings on colds and allergies which some people are accustomed to so they don't think anything of it. So the numbers of cases are drastically lower than they would be if everyone was tested.
@Arduino Stein Are you saying he is right to forego testing because knowing that you're sick will cause the spread to quicken? Because the opposite has been proven to be true.
"hello, smart people" lol who you're talking to
Fawkin AWESOME 😆
the ones not dead
Who "you're" talking to..?.
Well not you clearly
@@sacr3 it's not even my first language
@@lauracapelete9336 damnit that ruins what I said then, sigh... nvm then I take what I said back, gawww...
Why do I always attack people online am I that troubled? How pathetic is it for someone to simply attack others through comments
Man I gotta re-evaluate my life
But first I'm hungry
Amazing video. I love all your videos, but this one was particularly great because it is also so current and important, and applies to EVERYONE in the world during this crisis.
So many daft people never seem to get this. They don't see the seriousness of the situation, and think people are overreacting and even call it a hoax - just because they don't know anyone that's sick and because they themselves are young enough to not be in the most critical risk groups. That pond analogy was brilliant, and perfectly sums up that "everything is perfect, until it isn't".
The movie Contagion (2011) also said it brilliantly, something like: "We'd rather wake up tomorrow to news that we overreacted once again, and be humiliated in the media, than waking up realizing we didn't do enough".
Please, PLEASE add subtitles to other languages too. There's so much misinformation around here in Brazil. I would love to share this video with everyone I know
Translations are enabled, so please translate captions into as many languages as you can!
@@besmart I'll try to get sometime tomorrow to do it. The sooner the better.
@@besmart I finished portuguese. Waiting for a review to go live. This video is perfect, thank you.
@@besmart are we allowed to share?
Young people take this virus seriously. It can still be transmitted by people that have no symptoms. In the United States we are on lockdown. Please do not hoard the toilet paper, there is plenty. Enjoy staying home and spending time with loved ones, orchids and fish you work so hard for. Everyone stay healthy and laugh.
“ and laugh “ best part
And laugh at memes
We aren't on lockdown. We can still go out
Most of us in the US are not in lockdown..
Flower with sunglasses Not mandatory. No one will stop you, but all the nonessential businesses in my area are closed. The less physical contact with people the safer you will be.
Thank you for this, you made so much sense and I feel like I have a better understanding of things.