I was surprised we were able to even reach 4mil sales but that blip in rates really helped. The economy is to weak for any growth without another round of massive government spending. The next two years depend on how long it takes to push another few trillion dollars of “stimulus” in the market
@@timber-rider It doesn't make sense if you don't understand economics and history. Like allowing small fires, in order to prevent a huge recession from festering. Agree. Maybe....this stuff gets complicated and uncontrollable at the same time.
After 52 years in California and 5 in Alabama, I bought a house in my first year here with no issues. The experience was far better than buying property in California, which I found over-regulated and over-taxed. I wish I had moved sooner. My friend did the same but worked with an adviser, which helped him avoid the problems I faced. I regret not taking that step myself.
Jason, this is all great content. Thank you. Can you do a short video about buying down interest rates and when that makes sense? That would be so helpful.
Like I have been saying: medium house prices will INCREASE 1-3% in 2025, 26, 27, 28, 29 & 2030. So basically flat. This gives time for those who are wise to increase their wages. Prices will NOT DECREASE because of inventory issues. New home but have not kept pace with population growth since 2010. MILLIONS SHORT. Apologies for the capitalization but someone needs to pay attention.
@ that is a logical conclusion. Prices aren’t dropping. BUT don’t expect anything lower than 5.5% over the next 5-7 years. We have enough demand. The supply will only increase with higher rates. Just as we have experienced the last four years. And ALWAYS.
@@CurtisLoew-q7q I like your take but can’t say “always” unless you have a black crystal ball. Did you foresee the pandemic affect on the housing market or the 2008 crash?
@ good catch but inventory went down during pandemic when interest rates cratered. And during 2006-2008 rates were up. At least in California. I had a second mortgage over 10% in 2007 and the first was around 7%. Inventory increased then. So my point is still valid but I concede the use of always.
Thanks for the ear to rail info again Jason. I found this info interesting if not surprising that mortgage application rejections rates are double (20%) than in 2019 (10%) with mortgage refinance rejections near an all time high (25%) and auto loan application rejections at the highest level since 2013, (11.4%). Tough sledding out there.
Interesting... where did you read that? Thank you for sharing. When looking at credit availability per the MBA, lending standards are twice as tight now compared to 2019.
I smell an inflection point for home sale statistics for the next few years, and not for the better. The road to analytical and forecast hell is paved with straight line projections. The points that carnivalgods raised should bend the curve.
I bought my house for $180k, I’ll sell it for $180k as long as my next house is willing to do the same thing or similar. I don’t want to pricegouge the average man. And I also don’t want to be price gouged as a average man lol
I bought my house for 30K more than the last owner after three years of improvements, I will take a 15K loss as it's on the market now in CA looking to move to VA or WV. I don't get how someone buys a house for 150k a year or 18 two later, zero improvements. Not only that, but I will sell it for 450K ? Dude, even Zillow, like maybe 190k. Give me a brake. I am at 4% interest. Now
That would be great. If transactions stay very low next year, we'll likely see a significant amount leaving the industry (includes loan officers and others in real estate).
All the “keep renting” clowns love this channel. Wonder what it is??!! Anyways, good open source realtor coverage on housing “outlooks!” Smart money is exiting.
10:06 they must be Trump fans and think the economy is going to do much better even with higher mortgage rates now that he's going to be in office. lol
![BLACK BAG - Official Trailer [HD] - Only in Theaters March 14](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Du0Xp8WX_7I/mqdefault.jpg)
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
Let me guess... volumes up, prices up, sentiment up, everything up!
I was surprised we were able to even reach 4mil sales but that blip in rates really helped. The economy is to weak for any growth without another round of massive government spending. The next two years depend on how long it takes to push another few trillion dollars of “stimulus” in the market
Or maybe allow a recession, the healthiest possible outcome? I know crazy.
@@timber-rider It doesn't make sense if you don't understand economics and history. Like allowing small fires, in order to prevent a huge recession from festering. Agree. Maybe....this stuff gets complicated and uncontrollable at the same time.
After 52 years in California and 5 in Alabama, I bought a house in my first year here with no issues. The experience was far better than buying property in California, which I found over-regulated and over-taxed. I wish I had moved sooner. My friend did the same but worked with an adviser, which helped him avoid the problems I faced. I regret not taking that step myself.
Jason, this is all great content. Thank you. Can you do a short video about buying down interest rates and when that makes sense? That would be so helpful.
He has and his advice is calculate the time to break even and if it’s around 18 months, it’s worth it.
6.6 is still too high to make the market move forward.
Rates need to go down for more inventory.
Like I have been saying: medium house prices will INCREASE 1-3% in 2025, 26, 27, 28, 29 & 2030. So basically flat. This gives time for those who are wise to increase their wages. Prices will NOT DECREASE because of inventory issues. New home but have not kept pace with population growth since 2010. MILLIONS SHORT. Apologies for the capitalization but someone needs to pay attention.
Hopefully rates go down encouraging people to list their homes.
@ that is a logical conclusion. Prices aren’t dropping. BUT don’t expect anything lower than 5.5% over the next 5-7 years. We have enough demand. The supply will only increase with higher rates. Just as we have experienced the last four years. And ALWAYS.
@@CurtisLoew-q7q I like your take but can’t say “always” unless you have a black crystal ball. Did you foresee the pandemic affect on the housing market or the 2008 crash?
@ good catch but inventory went down during pandemic when interest rates cratered. And during 2006-2008 rates were up. At least in California. I had a second mortgage over 10% in 2007 and the first was around 7%. Inventory increased then. So my point is still valid but I concede the use of always.
😂 look at the expert here! Get off the basement WiFi. And please, don’t attack me with all you accounts! 🤡
#1 Happy Tuesday Jason.
#LetsGetNerdy
#RealEstateIsLocal😊
#KingOfTheSpreadSheets😂
#EveryHousingMarketIsDifferent
Happy Tuesday!! :)
Thanks for the ear to rail info again Jason. I found this info interesting if not surprising that mortgage application rejections rates are double (20%) than in 2019 (10%) with mortgage refinance rejections near an all time high (25%) and auto loan application rejections at the highest level since 2013, (11.4%). Tough sledding out there.
Because rates were around 4.5% in 2019 and now 2% higher. And prices are higher. No surprise if you use math.
Interesting... where did you read that? Thank you for sharing. When looking at credit availability per the MBA, lending standards are twice as tight now compared to 2019.
Hope this goes through www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2024/11/15/mortgage-credit-availability-increased-in-october
I smell an inflection point for home sale statistics for the next few years, and not for the better. The road to analytical and forecast hell is paved with straight line projections. The points that carnivalgods raised should bend the curve.
Remember too that ratio of homes to population is a factor... if that ratio is higher now than it was in 1995 that could have an effect.
I think the 2025 to 2026 house market is going to be worse than what people think
Probably worse than Fanny Mae predictions, probably better than crash bro predictions.
I think it will be a crash. The fundamentals of the economy are beginning to crack.
Define worse please.
@@CurtisLoew-q7q it’s not important what I think.
@ worse than 2008 to 2012
I bought my house for $180k, I’ll sell it for $180k as long as my next house is willing to do the same thing or similar.
I don’t want to pricegouge the average man. And I also don’t want to be price gouged as a average man lol
That's a pipe dream, but it's a nice dream. I guess it kind of happens from time to time. Just not lately.
I bought my house for 30K more than the last owner after three years of improvements, I will take a 15K loss as it's on the market now in CA looking to move to VA or WV. I don't get how someone buys a house for 150k a year or 18 two later, zero improvements. Not only that, but I will sell it for 450K ? Dude, even Zillow, like maybe 190k. Give me a brake. I am at 4% interest. Now
lets hope it weeds out all the bad realtors
That has already happened.
That would be great. If transactions stay very low next year, we'll likely see a significant amount leaving the industry (includes loan officers and others in real estate).
Sucks to here that APRs are expected to rise again. I don't see them coming down anytime soon either.
why? I see the opposite.
Higher rates equate to more inventory.
@@JasonWalter1 He said APR, not ARM.
@@CurtisLoew-q7q oops! I deleted my comment. Apparently I need more coffee lol
@ Hopefully when I correct someone else they respond appropriately. Thank you sir! And hopefully the back and forth comments make you some cash. 💰 🏡
All the “keep renting” clowns love this channel. Wonder what it is??!! Anyways, good open source realtor coverage on housing “outlooks!” Smart money is exiting.
"Smart money" doesn't rent. 👌
@ used all the accounts on this one! 🤡 boy
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc you’re the main clown I was referring to. All the accounts you liked your own comment with too-uber clown activity! 🤣
assuming Fannie is seeing stagflation like alot of analysts are expecting
8:55 😮
For the #algorithm😊
Thank you, Steve!
Remember that this administration almost always seems to have DOWNward revisions.
"higher for longer".............. 🤮
6% until at least the end of 2026 - wild. A lot could happen in the interim though.
ww3
10:06 they must be Trump fans and think the economy is going to do much better even with higher mortgage rates now that he's going to be in office. lol
Blah blah,nobody knows what the market will do,so who cares at this point.