Are We Dumb about Intelligence? Amy Zegart on the Capabilities of American Intel Gathering
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- Опубликовано: 29 мар 2022
- Recorded on March 17, 2022
Amy Zegart is a fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of political science at Stanford University, and the author of a new book, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In this frank conversation, Zegart grades American intelligence-gathering operations, recent and historical, and compares them to their counterparts in China and Russia. Professor Zegart also discusses Silicon Valley’s crucial role in these operations and how they often conflict with the politics of the people running tech companies. Finally, Zegart discusses the crucial ability of the intelligence community to recruit the next generation of spies and analysts, some of whom may be her own students.
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Google vs CIA...; What's the difference?
All Hoover videos have helped me remain sane in the midst of deception and corruption during the last two years but Peter Robinson’s interviews hold a special place in my heart. This may be at least one of the best.
We are dumb about everything. Except worrying about all the wrong stuff.
Silicon Valley has become incredibly "woke" and culturally closed-minded.
So, intelligence successes go unnoticed because they are classified. I bet more intelligence failures are classified (and for longer periods) than intelligence successes. Thus, the lack of accountability.
When military commanders fail, they are relieved of command, often immediately. How often do intelligence officers get relieved?
21:30 "they're not spying on your phone calls with your grandma" somehow i got doubts
The US intelligence community helped create the situation in Ukraine starting as early as 2014. They had plenty of time to predict this as they set it up to happen.
As usual thanks to Peter for the great job he does. That said, his guest's response to his question about finding Bin Laden to me was troubling.
She used the excuse that Bin Laden did things differently after 9-11 than he did previously and "they all thought" he would follow his usual procedure of hiding in the mountains, away from his family.
She classifies his eventual demise as a "great success", one in which the entire intelligence community apparently had one narrow vision.
I take that to mean no one in the intelligence community took a contrarian view.
This mentality is the problem with so many "experts" today. The group think / herd mentality is one of our biggest problems, especially in this politically correct world run by bureaucrats.
Two very interesting points.
26.43 min : The tension between the tech giants and the government on issues of national security. But the pandemic showed how the tech giants voluntarily adopted the politucal narrative of the government. The tech giants colluded and censored to perpetuate the official line even without any legal mandate. But this aspect wasn't touched on.
35.05 min : The question of use and abuse of intelligence in a democracy is an old one. Perhaps the discussion needed to explore the political philosophy of power. When politics is primarily about power, and exercising power over people, then democratically elected or unelected autocrats, both share the propensity to abuse intelligence in order to try and hold on to power.
Fascinating and informative interview. Amy Zegart is clearly one of the most informed individuals in America on intel issues and operations that span the gamete from Intel accumulation to Intel warfare. Sadly, such understanding is exceedingly rare. No democracy can stand unless the electorate is informed by truth and motivated to participate rationally in the system. Preparing voters to possess such qualities begins in elementary school with Civics classes that are either non-existent now days or so diluted by political influence they are pointless. For these reasons and more (that I address in my own book, THE FALL Of American Democracy) American democracy is not only on life support now, but is in severe decline.
Very interesting, but I don't think we have anything good to look back on, we have failed so badly, Afghanistan is bad, it was change of order, we lost a lot of hardware and our efforts were an effective waste.
Ukraine is worse, our intel might be good, but we have a sovereign country invaded by a vastly superior one, if our intelligence was good prevention would and should have been a goal, we now have a supremely armed well resourced county, completely estranged from us, with us looking odd about bio labs and tattooed Azov Battalion members, we the collective west will are now picking up the bill, especially the poor.
Russia the country we needed to bring China to account is now Allied with China, all our efforts in Ukraine do now, only prolong suffering.
As for China, big tech and multi nationals have a lot to answer for, out sourcing work to a communist dictatorship, shameful, we deserve everything that comes to us, we used the poor Chinese and ordinary people missed out on ordinary good jobs, so a lucky few could get rich.
The opening/ending question is interesting. As someone who works in Silicon Valley, I would guess that one cultural element that deters graduating students from joining the government is the fear of getting stifled. In SV, generally, you can start having impact very quickly out of school. If you don't like how things are done, you go somewhere else (or start your own company). It's very fluid. My sense is that the government is much more rigid as a place to work. You don't get to change systems on the fly, or at all.
EDIT: I don't have a solution to this, and there are reasons why SV and DC work differently. I just want to offer a potential insight.
This woman could have been a great PR rep for the stasi but I believe her intentions are the right way forward
I love Peter's cordially manufactured exasperation at 3:52, moments like that really bring life to these incredible conversations.
Such great guests and content. I feel like im stealing something when I watch this for free.
I have worked for different company/organization in North America and have seen how some government agencies (such as post office, Police Department, ministry of labor etc) dealt with matters/create issues.
Bureaucracy always always causing problems. Even when companies believe that they have the best management systems in the industry with open door policy.
But bureaucracy also survived in every part of our world.
That's why we are afraid of artificial intelligence.
Wow , informative and fascinating, great interview,what a clear thinking highly intelligent Lady ,as an Australian ally it's comforting to know we have assets like her and others in five eyes protecting us .🇦🇺👏
Afghanistan is another hodabea. It was a 20 year long hodabea. In order to be politically correct and not offend Muslim people, knowledge of the facts have been refused. I remember a special I think PBS. The name may have been Tears Behind The Vale. There was a afghan woman pleading with all l her heart for America not to leave them. She practically screamed that the minute they leave, all afghan soldiers will revert right back but with far more military powers. This is consistent with hodabea
Cyber threat. This country is surprisingly vulnerable. Somebody hacked into a New Jersey school district's systems and we couldn't teach children without the internet for three days. They had to shut schools down .
Here’s some common knowledge: You care about what your boss cares about.
Hoover's videos should be required watching in all highschools and colleges. What a dangerous idea, I know -
peter robinson i admire this guy extremely professional
there was that cyber attack on the pipeline a while back and within a couple days the gas stations were empty with lines around the corner... and that's a TINY cyber attack.
Wel I would hope they had good intelligence in Ukraine considering the US has basically controlling Ukaine since 2014 .
Very good interview. Amy Zegart is one to watch on all things IC.
But not enough intelligence, to prevent the actions of Putin. That's real intelligence!
A job offer from google and the CIA. What is the difference?
For the record… Peter is a hero
INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT interview. Fantastic guest, and Peter gives great questions. This needs to go viral.
So the term limits for Congress movement needs to consider Amy's point about getting rid of term limits on the Intelligence Committee - did she mean the present limits or ANY limits? Amy or Peter, can you respond to this important question, please? And how would Amy balance Congressional term limits with Int Com service length?
Thank you Professor Zegart... Excellent interview and as always from the Hoover Institute... some sanity in the Internet Abyss
A breath of fresh air.
I could not stop listening, what a fantastic interview.
Great, a funny question pop into my mind, is US becoming more like China, or China is becoming more like US.
A truly fascinating conversation.
Great guest, so coherent in her presentation of difficult issues.
I will observe about intel regarding Putin's Ukraine Invasion 2.0: there WAS Ukraine Invasion 1.0. How could we NOT expect it?
Can you say hide "in plain sight".
Always do what your adversary ;
A. doesn't think you will do
B. doesn't think you have the capability to do.
and finally
C. doesn't think you possess the "will" to do.
Great interview! The most powerfull, and intellectual insights come from those that are living without prejudice and seeking humble acceptance from those that feel that it is their duty to advise right from wrong. A Billionaire has no more rights than a person struggling to feed their family. I loved this video. Thank you Amy Zegart and the man interviewing you. Sorry but his name wasn't made clear in the title. You both are extraordinary. Best wishes Jason from Melbourne Australia.
I watch every other video or so... but I think this show does the absolute best at finding actual experts and people with a deep knowledge base and I think that's swell
What a pleasure to listen to an intelligent, well presented lady in such an understanding way. thank you.
Trick question. Its the same job
👈👍
Illuminating! I hung on every question and answer. Thank you!
I take issue with the premise that there's a difference between Google and the CIA. 😏
Great discussion.
Fascinating interview. Amy Zegart is an inspirational person!
The best interview I’ve heard in a long time, also it wasn’t political, congratulations
this looks like a really good one Peter ! I read her book, it's a worthwhile read.
@ 41:48 remember Danny Kaye being "The Inspector General."
I think Amy’s intelligence and grasp on reality is remarkable. She’s way out of my league. What a blessing to have assets like her on our side
Ha, the Intel community missed the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, and the fall of the Soviet Union, and 911. smh
Just wondering how much cyber vulnerability is due to cyber entropy, (think genetic entropy). Rusting out like a car, little by little, not really noticeable until you can't help noticing.
Great interview! Very insightful.
Thank you.
Russia is a few months old... Kind of jumping to conclusions if you ask me... Failure in Afghanistan was 20years in the making....
US Intell predicted when Russia would go into Ukraine and then said Russia would be in the Capitol in a week maybe 2. It seems to me they grossly overestimated the ability of the Russian military
I very much dislike being “teased “ at the beginning of a program with a hint of what will come later.
I cite this woman nonstop in my PhD program. Visionary
An enlightening informative interview. Thank you!
I enjoyed it very much! Thank you.
Since intell-i-ge@nce and I-Q discussions are prohibited by RUclips I clicked on this title. The video is about government spying.
Yes, a fascinating analysis and a great interview.
Amy is such a good interview.
THANK YOU LOVE THE POD AND SUBJECT MATERS.
wouldve loved to hear her take on the spying on trump and such related matters
Too bad I'm not a college senior ... graduated too long ago ... otherwise ... 0:00 min ... doesn't sound like a bad position to be in ... it seems like having good health wouldn't be a bad thing either ...
A real delight and learning encounter. Look forward to reading her book and watching this again.
Fascinating interview!
Great show! However I'm hiding under my bed right now.:)😆
YES.
That is all.
The last part was absolutely perfect. “Serve your country and fellow man, than make your riches”.
I'm a profoundly smart IT Engineer. I earn top 1% money (much more, to be honest), and as Amy said, my job is essentially enabling people to click ads faster. It's not a fulfilling career, but this is where the money is. Which means this is what PEOPLE VALUE. With their money and time, over the health and education and lives of their loved ones.
I had (have) a really strong interest in science, medicine, teaching, and an array of things where I could do a lot of good. But nope, I'm doing silly things with computers.
I look around and I see an IMMENSE amount of brain cells being misused like mine. So many exceptionally smart people not curing disease, not coming up with new treatments, no protecting lives. It's sad. But then again, why should I sacrifice my own and my loved one's financial security for the betterment of the ungrateful others? No thanks.
fantastic as usual
That was very interesting, thanks for posting. It is good to know there are people out there that understand the big picture which is a relief after hearing from our politicians from all sides that don't seem to have a clue. The Chinese are going to be a problem in the future, to what extent remains unclear.
Great video. Amy always impresses.
Great interview!
I bet this smart, well spoken and thoughtful woman wasnt hired based on her gender, her sexual orientation or preferred pronouns.
We need more like her running the government.
Thanks both of you
More important. How good is the US at cyber??
Super.
Take neither job. Truly smart people don't consider working with the criminally insane. They end up serving me instead.
Peter, please bring this woman back - a lot
Excellent
Hard to gather intel when your adversary thinks and acts as if they live in the 14th century.
Good conversation always
I''m telling you, when Peter dies the whole world will lose something. Not just his family and friends.
Trump/Robinson 2024 😂 jk jk love your work Peter best interviewer of modern times! I so look forward to these please stay well.
Your guest oozes confidence. Great interview thanks. Would love to hear the things she knows but cannot tell.
To use intelligence you have to have intelligence ....If you have intelligence you realise when its being used....and eventually you can place a value on the intelligence...what happens if we all have intelligence and ethics....Does that mean we share power, resource, lessons, life ? or do we use it against each other to dominate the other...Whats the importance of intelligence if you find yourself burying or being buried ?...Cant wait for the time a software programme gets to share out our time on earth
Nobody can predict the future, and it's unreasonable to expect that from any intelligence forces (as in Afghanistan). The collection and interpretation of the data are different issues (as in Ukraine).
Arguably every country in 5 eyes has a similar muilticultural advantage
Uplifting.
Is it too much to ask that our students be required to dedicate a couple of years to paid internships for civic duty with a wide array of subjects to explore but that all serve the nation and serve to get a bit of everyone’s skin in game of being united as a citizen of the US with the caveat that each kid gets the very best K-12 education possible with as many choices as possible (vouchers), that we stop playing politics with the lazy, entitled and even subversive teachers Union and instead foster an environment of competition for educators which will necessitate that learning becomes more engaging for kids in order to reach targets? China, for its many faults is destroying our kids in education. Yes, the freedom in America churns out creative young people, but they lack a healthy amount of discipline and too many feel no responsibility to the country. It’s far beyond time that Democrats discontinue flirting with socialism. Don’t entertain what we can quantifiably prove doesn’t work compared to the clear successes of a free markets-based system.
Trick question. It's the same job.
👍👌 🌹
😎
China did not violate Taiwan's airspace. It is Taiwan's ADIZ, about 1/3 of which actually covers the Chinese territory and airspace.
Great discussion! One fact we need to discuss is the burden of politicians for continued fund raising! There will be a time when only rich people can run for the office...and when they do...like Mr.Trump ... would be at a greater cost to the country! Real battle is at the primary level....
I listened to you stating all these advantages we have over our enemies but you did not state our greatest advantage. We are a people who believe in God and who support his people in Israel. For that was the start of our success. But our spiritual decline as a nation over the last 40 years has the Lords judgement about to fall on us at any time.
Your thinking is too narrow. China does not outnumber us 5 or 6 to one. The largest "country" in the world id EU + US + other allies of over 1 billion people which are the richest market in the world.
This is hilarious
Soft interview
FIRST!
🥇
It appears our intelligence community has done a pretty good job with the Russo-Ukranian War.