Quant Strategy: Pairs Trading Algorithm (Mean Reversion)

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  • Опубликовано: 4 дек 2024

Комментарии • 108

  • @Goran78
    @Goran78 Год назад +8

    Hi Spencer, this is pure gold. Thank you for sharing so much knowledge with us for free :)

  • @SpencerPaoHere
    @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +9

    NOTE: at 4:20, pandas data reader has been deprecated!! So, the logic when obtaining your data will change. Thus, I have updated the Jupyter notebook here: github.com/SpencerPao/Pairs_Trading
    At 9:40 2 standard deviations are 95%. 1.25 standard deviations is ~90%

  • @Mezmathics
    @Mezmathics 3 года назад +8

    A rather complicated concept made concise and very comprehensive. Excellent!!

  • @leonardogarces7563
    @leonardogarces7563 Год назад +2

    Very well explained thanks!

  • @jawadj4798
    @jawadj4798 Год назад +2

    Should note: you can have a cointegrated pair with zero correlation.
    Correlation does not imply cointegration or rather an underlying relationship which influences the process of each time series in a distinct way.
    The relationship is what we are trading, or in other more specific terms, the statistical deviation from a cointegrated spread.

  • @michaelladen7049
    @michaelladen7049 3 года назад +4

    Great video, and with Python code too!!
    Thank you for making this clear explanation, and for making it available to your viewers

  • @rataash
    @rataash 2 года назад +1

    i think i found a rare gem, thanks for the video, keep up the good work

  • @xelhaku
    @xelhaku 2 года назад +4

    You could use the returns instead of price. And then the ratio between retturns of both assets

    • @sayonsomchanda6867
      @sayonsomchanda6867 11 месяцев назад

      Yes, people do use returns for calculating hedging ratios in real life.. but I guess the reason he used "Price" is it is easier to create visualizations using Pricing data.

  • @almelnik
    @almelnik Год назад +1

    What is your rationale for doing RUclips instead of developing a trading model? Do you view career or RUclips as a more predictable way to increase earnings or do you doubt that it's possible to develop such model? Ignore question confines if needed, any thoughts appreciated.

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  Год назад +3

      An excellent question -- I actually never really put that much thought into creating quant models; I am more into Long only trades with longer time horizons. It may be an interesting venue to explore. It essentially boils down to time -- I only have so many hours in the day, and I recently became very, very busy. There's a lot more to that story but those are the high level points.

  • @navketan1965
    @navketan1965 8 дней назад +1

    Sir, For pair trading forex say gbp/aud and gbp/nzd how do you like idea to use actual cci values mtf to decide which pair is more deflected from its average price. example-- use cci7 and cci 14 values on daily chart added for each asset, and buy asset which is cheaper and sell asset more expensive or vice versa. I would think cci would give better and more reliable signals compared to rsi or tsi indicator. after all, cci is derived directly from price itself and it is not an indicator of indicator. we seek your wisdom and thank you.

    • @danlewies7264
      @danlewies7264 4 дня назад

      Maybe the problem is me but I think you are wrong. For pair trading you don’t need an indicator. You need to form a portfolio with the two assets. The general formula for the portfolio value is : y = x1 - (b*x2).
      Where y is the portfolio, x1 and x2 the two assets, and b the hedge ratio. The edge ratio can be determined. If you’ve already done a test of cointegration on the portfolio value you can develop a strategy. You can calculate a Zscore with Z = (y - mean(y))/ std(y).
      No need for an indicator !

  • @sbqb21
    @sbqb21 Месяц назад +1

    great stuff...how your ever thought of using a ga algo to optimize the thresholds?

  • @tchintchie
    @tchintchie 3 года назад +1

    Highly underrated channel!

  • @cengizali5361
    @cengizali5361 2 года назад +1

    I would also look at cash indices, i quite like DAX vs Nasdaq. Especially as a spreadbet in which u are not exposed to CCY flutuations.

  • @Maximus18.6
    @Maximus18.6 8 месяцев назад

    Awesome video l. Thanks

  • @jessejin2027
    @jessejin2027 7 месяцев назад

    i love this video Spencer!

  • @ludmilasazonova2268
    @ludmilasazonova2268 Год назад

    Michael, your tactics are incredible Which one are you recommend for the beginners?

  • @nikolipham5952
    @nikolipham5952 3 года назад

    great work man! great work!

  • @GenoPendula
    @GenoPendula 2 года назад +1

    You are making it sound sooo easy hahah

  • @cakesama9770
    @cakesama9770 3 дня назад

    so as a quant in your day to day its your job to find unique strategies like this and execute right

  • @durchnet
    @durchnet 2 года назад +2

    Hey Spencer, thankyou so much for the video!! This is my first video on pairstrading and I finally understood the idea. However I have a few doubts especially at 8:55 , when you calculate the mean and then find your price signals. When you do that does that not cause a look ahead bias for older signals? Like we really never knew it was the mean at the beginning of the datapoint right? I'm sorry for the dumb question, but if you can clarify it, that would help me a lot! Thankyou!

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад +1

      There are no dumb questions! :)
      There are inherent assumptions when you go and utilize the pair trading algorithm. (i.e what time horizon you want to choose)
      Bias is an inherent factor with most if not all time-series particular model. There are some mays to mitigate that bias: 1) you can have normalized models in relation to the market over differing economic trends (recession, depression, growth etc..) and see how that compares. 2) Have additional features that is more representative of the data you are seeing now 3) Data augmentation etc.
      Hopefully that answered your question?

  • @mikkaruru
    @mikkaruru Год назад

    Brilliant!

  • @leilaan9344
    @leilaan9344 3 года назад +3

    Hi Spencer, this is a fantastic channel! Your explanations are some of the clearest I've seen. When you have the buying and selling signals, that's on the specific asset you declared you were going to be long or short one, correct? I would love a video on how to implement the actual buying/selling part of the strategy and backtesting if you're taking recommendations! Thanks again Spencer

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +2

      To answer your first question -- Yes indeed!
      I'm glad that you enjoyed this video. :)
      I'll dabble in the back testing / actual implementation of the algorithm via a brokerage. and see if I can make a video quality walkthrough.
      Note that the back testing is an art form; many of the testing algorithms are in house. I'm sure that there are some open source backtesting algo's to use.

    • @leilaan9344
      @leilaan9344 3 года назад +1

      @@SpencerPaoHere that would be fantastic, thank you! Thanks again for the great content - really appreciate all the effort

  • @felipemiraflores2984
    @felipemiraflores2984 6 месяцев назад

    Amazing Video!!!

  • @navketan1965
    @navketan1965 11 месяцев назад

    Sir, In pars trading can one trade spread between SP500 & Nasdq 100 based just on market sentiment of broad market/major indices.When sentiment is bullish,Nasdq100 would outperform SP 500 index.And in bearish scene vice versa.Same may be applied for pairs trading SP500 & Dow 30.In weak market Dow 30 would hold better & go down less compared to SP500/nasdq100.We seek your wisdom.Thank you.

  • @aravindhann2032
    @aravindhann2032 Год назад

    Awesome Video! How did you gain the knowledge that you have? What's the best way for an aspiring Quant Trader to gain all these knowledge from basics?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  9 месяцев назад

      I talk with others who are in the field.
      Honestly, the 'best' way to become a quant trader is to do it yourself. And, if you want to join a huge fund, you will have an edge over everyone else because you were an actual practioner. You learn by failing over and over.

  • @catjedi-mindtraining4794
    @catjedi-mindtraining4794 Год назад

    are these trading algorithms "a nice to have" or something that you would ned to properly lidentify pairs?

  • @LagartaGCB
    @LagartaGCB 2 года назад +1

    Any thoughts on rolling z-scores or z-z-scores (z-scores of z-scores when distributions may be not as mean reverting) and testing for effective lookback periods without data mining and information creep?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад +1

      You most definitley can do a rolling z-score of z scores approach. (In fact that approach can be an extension of what I did in this video.)
      In terms of back testing, that is definitley more of an artform that I am not 100% super familiar with. Many companies have their own built in backtesting. But, you can look at it from the point of view of specific time horizons in the stock exchange to judge how well your model will fare in economic upturns or dowturns. You don't have to have real time artificially generated data that represents a specific trend.
      At the end of the day, if you get good predictions, then by all means go for it! :)

  • @navketan1965
    @navketan1965 2 года назад +1

    Sir, In pair trading correlated currency pairs(say AUD/USD & NZD/USD) do you compare RSI value & sell overpriced pair & buy the weaker? OR do you compare CCI of each pair? Do you suggest using correlated cross currencies as pair trades(eg EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY)? On 4H chart sum up RSI 3, RSI 7,RSI 14, & compare added value on each pair & go. Thank you.

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад

      You can try any of those -- whichever has the best signals, go for it. Regardless of which relationships you seek, the pairs trading principle applies to any.

    • @ronaknathwani5142
      @ronaknathwani5142 Год назад

      Hi Spencer what tools do I need to run the similar test as above , I’m trading ES NQ and YM correlated pairs and like to see the stats for divergence?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  Год назад

      @@ronaknathwani5142 Hmm. Those are ticker symbols I assume? You can run any tool that you are comfortable with. (by tools do you mean software?) Check out code in C. Those are typically the fastest language in the quant world.
      If you mean which theories to use, you should test whichever one in your overall strategy to get your edge. Perhaps even use a combination of them or some other strategy that I am unfamiliar with.

    • @navketan1965
      @navketan1965 Год назад

      @@ronaknathwani5142 Sir, On one chart plot RSI 3, RSI 7, RSI 14 ( say using MT4) & write values of each & add the numbers for ES NQ & YM--and compare.Please sell overpriced & buy the underpriced. System Programs use RSI 14, but as you know RSI 3 is the best guide to price & RSI 7 is more recent than RSI 14--so we have better picture of strength/weakness mtf.You need no program--just paper & pencil.

  • @thelightings
    @thelightings 9 месяцев назад

    thank you alot

  • @oliveroz2705
    @oliveroz2705 3 года назад +1

    Rich in content

  • @arghyaghosh13
    @arghyaghosh13 Год назад +23

    Conceptually wrong. You should check if the pairs are cointegrated or not. Correlation does not imply cointegration.

  • @FaizanKhan-gg4kx
    @FaizanKhan-gg4kx 5 месяцев назад

    Sir can you help me with adftest for pair trading

  • @navketan1965
    @navketan1965 Год назад

    Sir, Have you tried pair trading forex using rsi7 ,rsi14,rsi30 (add them up for comparison) say on hourly chart & selling strong pair & buying weak pair--pairs have to be highly correlated(eg aud/usd and nzd/usd OR dow30 & sp500).One can do this on any correlating underlying stocks/commodities/futures/crypto/bonds. Trading on hourly charts there would be tons of opportunities all year around.

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  Год назад

      I have not! You can definitely find many correlations -- the trick perhaps is to find causailty.

  • @abhishekgadekar5618
    @abhishekgadekar5618 Год назад

    Hey great video Spencer. I have a doubt at the end when we get the buy and sell signals, so say the buy signal is the trigger we got, now do we buy BRK or buy MSFT? how do we decide? Also how is it a pair strategy, we are only buying or selling only one stock at a time?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  9 месяцев назад

      Mathematically and theoretically, you can go long on X and short Y. The direction of either one depends on what the model suggests.
      Also, from the pairs strategy (X,Y), you would typically standardize the pair i.e X would be buy and Y would be sell

  • @mathispaumier1670
    @mathispaumier1670 2 года назад

    Hello, just wanted to know how you calculate the spread mine is all weird. Great video

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад

      The spread (which I believe your are mentioning at 6:17) is calculated by BRK_B - MSFT which is the difference between adjusted closing prices.

  • @botsprofit
    @botsprofit Год назад

    very good video

  • @muntedme203
    @muntedme203 Год назад

    Are trading past if you have not rolled Z scores. You may have false signal with heteroskedasticity even in a pair of two non homoskedastic series.

  • @SiMonPhamphaisailam
    @SiMonPhamphaisailam Год назад

    I tried to run it but sadly, the signal is not correct. As you can see on the graph u presented, the signal is false as well. Any other way to detect peak and bottom of a graph ?

  • @SuperJg007
    @SuperJg007 11 месяцев назад

    I am curious about something, aren't we having a lookahead bias here when doing the tests to determine the pairs to trade, like say in one 1, we wont have info from the future right to tell us if this pair is cointegrated.
    How do you think we can tackle this?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  9 месяцев назад

      Bias is huge. And, I don't talk about penalization. One way to do this is through continuous backtesting and revalidating the model (reweighting and reupdating the model) OR even having a different model altogether.

  • @marekdziubinski850
    @marekdziubinski850 Год назад

    Spencer, very interesting video. Please note that there is an “overfitting” problem in your concept. You are using a prior knowledge regarding the correlation of these two instruments. In other words, the fact that these two stocks are correlated in the period of time that you are analyzing is not necessarily going to be true in the future (and you are analyzing the performance of your method only for the past signal… that was used to determine if the stocks are correlated in the first place). Take care

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  Год назад +1

      You're absolutley correct! This is an assumption that there is an inherent dependency in this method and your positions will inherently become more risky the longer you hold onto a specific position.

  • @xploit811
    @xploit811 2 года назад

    Thanks. Any good tool or means to check stock co-integration?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад +1

      It depends on your use case. If speed is not an issue, you can resort to scraping data from Yahoo Finance with Python/R. Those languages should suffice.

  • @mdaplaton
    @mdaplaton 3 года назад

    Thx for the content!
    Do you plan by any means to make a video of pair trading but with the use of kalman filter instead of moving averages?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +3

      Ah LQE? Few folks are aware of that haha.
      Estimating position(s) is actually incredibly interesting based on uncertain features.
      That would be an entirely different video altogether (and not necessarily related to Pairs Trading)
      I have thought about using Kalman filter on an ARIMA model, and after reading a paper, the filter does provide an incremental improvement.
      I might do a video on the topic but not in the near future.

  • @Mehdi_Maherzi
    @Mehdi_Maherzi Год назад

    Hi Spencer thanks for the video. why did you choose 1.25 sd ? 1 sd from the mean covers 68% of the data I agree, but If you want to cover 95% of the data, you should choose 2 sd, considering a normal distribution. Thnaks

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  Год назад +1

      Hi! Yeah me choosing 1.25 sd was arbitrary. It does make a lot of sense to do 2 sd.

    • @Mehdi_Maherzi
      @Mehdi_Maherzi Год назад

      @@SpencerPaoHere ok :) and a z-score of 1.25 is at the ~90th percentile right, not 95th, as you mentioned. Thats why I got confused.

  • @karim03347
    @karim03347 Год назад +1

    Buying what ? And selling what ??

  • @lemeslabs
    @lemeslabs 3 года назад

    Goodnight ! Do you have any video on your channel about the Pair Trading strategy but instead of long x short, does it work in the form long & long or short & short?
    Note: congratulations for the channel.

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +1

      Hello! I do not have a video on that topic. However, what you are stating is quite similar to the pair trading algorithm I discussed. Just switch the logic. I.e if asset A and asset B were to decrease (high correlation), you can spread your bets between the 2 asset classes.

  • @jlee-mp4
    @jlee-mp4 Год назад

    At 9:40, doesn't 95% of the data lie between 2 standard deviations, not 1.25?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  Год назад

      Yes. You are correct. I've updated my pinned comment and it was also asked in an earlier comment as well.

  • @sebastianwozniczka7403
    @sebastianwozniczka7403 3 года назад +1

    Hi ! I tried to use your code however there is an error. From what I understand, it can't access the data from yahoo finance correctly. Are you experiencing the same issue ?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +2

      Yes indeed! Thank you for letting me know!
      Yahoo finance has changed their backend so the functions I go over in this video are deprecated. However, I have updated my notebook to adjust for this. You can check it out on my Github here: github.com/SpencerPao/Pairs_Trading

    • @sebastianwozniczka7403
      @sebastianwozniczka7403 3 года назад

      @@SpencerPaoHere that’s great, thank you !!!

  • @jackyliaw2763
    @jackyliaw2763 2 года назад

    Any chance to have the same written for crypto In Binance API?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад

      Most likely. If you are able to query data from the Binance APi without much limit, you can do the pairs trading algorithm. It's just a matter of latency at that point.

  • @laureanoralon3880
    @laureanoralon3880 3 года назад

    Do you think this can be done using AUDUSD vs. EURAUD?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +1

      Hi! Most definitely! Although, there are a lot of other features that are associated with forex, Pairs Trading can apply to any sort of asset classes!

  • @bijothomas710
    @bijothomas710 3 года назад +1

    can get this code?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +2

      I uploaded the notebook here: github.com/SpencerPao/Pairs_Trading

  • @robnotaro8584
    @robnotaro8584 2 года назад

    Wouldnt this work better with forex pairs?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад

      Not sure. I haven't tried. Though, I bet a lot of folks may use a version of pairs trading in any type of financial market.

  • @amriksingh5003
    @amriksingh5003 2 года назад

    Hi do you have the algo system for pair trading I can use. How much it costs ?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад +1

      Algo system? Not really.
      For deployments for trading algorithms, you can look into using interactive brokers via their api. Plug in your model and stream their data.
      They are quite hefty in costs though.

    • @amriksingh5003
      @amriksingh5003 2 года назад

      @@SpencerPaoHere thanks for your prompt response. I m not programming guy.

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад +1

      @@amriksingh5003 Hmm. Well, unfortunatley everything has some elment of code. Though, you could just run my notebook locally from github and plug in your pair of public companies (for example) manually purchase/sell equity on some exchange.

  • @ricktrader3946
    @ricktrader3946 3 года назад

    Good explanation ... but you use In Sample data? Really more complex to apply in real world trading when you need to use Out Sample data.

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад

      Yes! I was essentially using the ratio between two different assets based on the historical data. And, based on the base model: rolling averages, I depend on the historical data to have a prediction in the future. (In essence, using in sample data for predictions)
      It is a basic model where the typical machine learning principles are not at play.

  • @poissongirrl
    @poissongirrl 2 года назад

    Hey, thanks for the amazing content, great video.
    I have one python-related technical question: by using pandas 1.2, the statsmodels doesn't work. I get this error when trying to import statsmodels.tsa.stattools: "module 'pandas' has no attribute 'Panel'". It seems the panel has been removed from Pandas module 0.25.0 onwards. How did you overcome this problem?
    Thanks in advance.
    Keep up the good work!

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад

      Yeah. I'd recommend setting up a separate environment for that specific version of pandas and other dependencies for this specific overview.

    • @poissongirrl
      @poissongirrl 2 года назад +1

      Update: with the latest anaconda version (released in May 2022), everything works perfectly, there was no need to install a specific pandas version.

  • @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я
    @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я 3 года назад

    hi tell me how to do it for the cryptocurrency market?

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад +1

      You could think of it in terms of replacing the assets with coins. Same process.

    • @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я
      @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я 3 года назад

      @@SpencerPaoHere I can’t load data market from binance

    • @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я
      @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я 3 года назад

      it doesn't work there

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  3 года назад

      ​@@ВиталийДягилев-ж5я ​ ooh. I think you're referring to scraping financial asset data? I have not attempted to scrape from binance, so I am not familiar with the tooling, but you can set up price scraping mechanisms on Yahoo Finance's API. I did a similar video on this topic: ruclips.net/video/GGgNM7WanK8/видео.html
      Or this video (includes Yahoo finance data): ruclips.net/video/wlaLmM_LvWg/видео.html

    • @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я
      @ВиталийДягилев-ж5я 3 года назад +1

      @@SpencerPaoHere oh thanks, I think I found it

  • @sinan_islam
    @sinan_islam 2 года назад

    Pairs Trading belongs to Mean Reversion or Statistical Arbitrage?!!!

    • @SpencerPaoHere
      @SpencerPaoHere  2 года назад

      Mean reversion.
      This is more in line with stat arb. ruclips.net/video/TNJNCJe9fDY/видео.html

  • @nihitsaxena16
    @nihitsaxena16 7 месяцев назад

    audio quality is not good

  • @GohOnLeeds
    @GohOnLeeds Год назад

    dude, you gotta get rid of this line in your code "Cointegration test: A technique used to find a potential correlation in a time series (long term)". This is *absolutely* not what it is. But you have mistaken correlation for causality the entire way through this video so I'm not surprised. Cointegration actually establishes a causal link from one time series to another" Peace bro. But please don't say the purpose of cointegration is to find correlations. Nothing is further from the truth :-)

  • @28jery
    @28jery 2 года назад

    Why so complicated ? Make money is easy .its simpl .

  • @EcoTekTermika
    @EcoTekTermika Год назад

    There's a reason you make RUclips videos instead of working in the industry. Your implementation and programming is garbarge.

  • @neuvocastezero1838
    @neuvocastezero1838 Месяц назад

    Thanks for the video, but not all of the code is visible because of the side scrolling. Is the code available elsewhere? In particular, the line:
    *_"data= pd.concat([data,pdr.get_data_yahoo(symbols= i, start= start, end= end).iloc[:,5]]),names.append(i)..."_*