TY for this video. I finally got the position sizing requirement. I will add my own wrinkles to the mix and start using the system as one component of my trading strategy. I feel like it's a great way to take advantage of trending stocks and markets.
If you take into account of Monte Carlo Fallacy, psychology is critical because despite a strategy having positive expectancy, a 8-9 losing streak would cause many traders to lose considerable confidence. Worst case, he/she would abandon the method all together.
I'm currently having this exact confidence issue. I'm more or less convinced that the 2xATR stop loss does not provide enough of a buffer against retracements which may occur shortly after a trading signal has been triggered. At 2xATR, a move of as little as 5% in the wrong direction after entering a trade can be enough to trigger stop-loss, and that can easily happen within a couple of days.
@@MrSaywutnow usually 2 x ATR is ok base on my experience. If you have sufficient data (for eg 100 trades) to prove that it doesn't, it's a good time to review your SL placement. Do take note 2 x ATR may work well for certain pairs and not for others. Good luck
@@christopherk7920can I apply this system in Forex pairs? Also, confidence can be trained by using smaller account size, say $100 even with 8-9 losing streak. After all, Richard Dennis started with $400 and grew it to $150mil.
@@MrSaywutnow using the 2xATR gives an expectation of price move over 20 days, if it breaches 2xATR price is showing you that its a oversize move in the wrong direction and there is a good chance the trend failed and would be a good idea to exit
Excelente explicación del exitoso y lengendario sistema de Richard Dennis, William Eckhardt y Las Tortugas. Un sistema con una esperanza matemática positiva, una serie de reglas muy precisas, consistencia, paciencia y disciplina son los ingredientes del éxito en el trading.
If S1 and S2 provide the same entry level, then the position size and stop-loss should be based on the risk parameters and volatility measurements of the system, with a bias towards the more conservative option (either the lower position size or the wider stop-loss). If both are exactly the same, the choice between them becomes irrelevant. Hope this helps! We wish you good luck with your trading!
The technicals are reacting to a price shift..why is the market repricing the asset? Who knows. More than likely the information is being taken advantage of by people in the know and it’s not public yet.
Turtles started at the beginning of what was the most bullish 20 years . The IDEAL environment to trendfollow so i think the results are skewed by this with SPX 82 - 92 up over 300% and 92 to 200 up about 250% for a combined 18 yr 1300% gain , any monkey made money . Maybe not so good since .
Hi wooloongabba, yes, markets have changed, and viewers should definitely note that the Turtles system may not be as profitable as it was when they were originally using it (sorry I really should have made this point in the video). However, the tenets of good trading remain the same, use a system with positive expectancy, preferably mechanical and with sensible risk, portfolio and capital management, and of course...apply that system with consistency, discipline, and patience! Thanks as always for your comments, please keep them coming! Regards, Carl @TM.
Doesnt work. Ive coded an algorithm in a very detailed very specific manner 100% accurate and it’s a loser on hundreds of stocks all of the commodities it’s just too random to sporadic to volatile.
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Amazing video! Great job!!
TY for this video. I finally got the position sizing requirement. I will add my own wrinkles to the mix and start using the system as one component of my trading strategy. I feel like it's a great way to take advantage of trending stocks and markets.
perfect explanation, i need those calculation. thank you so much sir
Great video. Mind boggling how there are so little views. Thank you
Mind blowing video, really helpful, deep insights, never seen such a complete video, you are awesome!
Glad you liked it!
Great walkthrough!
If you take into account of Monte Carlo Fallacy, psychology is critical because despite a strategy having positive expectancy, a 8-9 losing streak would cause many traders to lose considerable confidence. Worst case, he/she would abandon the method all together.
I'm currently having this exact confidence issue. I'm more or less convinced that the 2xATR stop loss does not provide enough of a buffer against retracements which may occur shortly after a trading signal has been triggered. At 2xATR, a move of as little as 5% in the wrong direction after entering a trade can be enough to trigger stop-loss, and that can easily happen within a couple of days.
@@MrSaywutnow usually 2 x ATR is ok base on my experience. If you have sufficient data (for eg 100 trades) to prove that it doesn't, it's a good time to review your SL placement. Do take note 2 x ATR may work well for certain pairs and not for others. Good luck
@@christopherk7920can I apply this system in Forex pairs? Also, confidence can be trained by using smaller account size, say $100 even with 8-9 losing streak. After all, Richard Dennis started with $400 and grew it to $150mil.
@@MrSaywutnow using the 2xATR gives an expectation of price move over 20 days, if it breaches 2xATR price is showing you that its a oversize move in the wrong direction and there is a good chance the trend failed and would be a good idea to exit
Really simple and concise explanation. ty
Very helpful and great learning. Thank you so much 😊
Thank you so much for this video. Your analysis was brilliant and it really helped me look at my system a lot closer.
Só? Are you profitable now?
Firstly, thank you for this. Secondly, thank you for this.
Thank you, we're happy to hear that you found it helpful. We wish you good luck with your trading!
Thanks really good stuff
The books says 1 N to pyramid not 0.5 and max of 4-5 units not 6-10. Curious where you got your info
Jump to 7:52 . you're welcome
thank you!
Thank you very much for this video.
Thank You, I enjoy the video, now I got to watch it again, until it second nature.
So a turtle soup is the exact opposite of that, false breakout above old high
Excellent thanks
Excelente explicación del exitoso y lengendario sistema de Richard Dennis, William Eckhardt y Las Tortugas. Un sistema con una esperanza matemática positiva, una serie de reglas muy precisas, consistencia, paciencia y disciplina son los ingredientes del éxito en el trading.
Dear Sir thank you for your videos can you share more about the position sizing requirement with stock price and examples . Thank you .
If the S1 and S2 are the same entry level do I base size and SL off s1 or s2?
If S1 and S2 provide the same entry level, then the position size and stop-loss should be based on the risk parameters and volatility measurements of the system, with a bias towards the more conservative option (either the lower position size or the wider stop-loss). If both are exactly the same, the choice between them becomes irrelevant. Hope this helps! We wish you good luck with your trading!
Comprehensive indeed
Thank you! We are glad to hear that you found the analysis helpful.
How do you get N
it's the 20 day average true range ATR(20)
21:18
two key ingredients to consider from this era: free money and coke
The technicals are reacting to a price shift..why is the market repricing the asset? Who knows. More than likely the information is being taken advantage of by people in the know and it’s not public yet.
Every great trader will die and the new era will start @raja
why 22 and 55 days??
20 days is 4 weeks depending on the market. Inspired by Donchian 4-week rule.
Turtles started at the beginning of what was the most bullish 20 years . The IDEAL environment to trendfollow so i think the results are skewed by this with SPX 82 - 92 up over 300% and 92 to 200 up about 250% for a combined 18 yr 1300% gain , any monkey made money . Maybe not so good since .
Hi wooloongabba, yes, markets have changed, and viewers should definitely note that the Turtles system may not be as profitable as it was when they were originally using it (sorry I really should have made this point in the video). However, the tenets of good trading remain the same, use a system with positive expectancy, preferably mechanical and with sensible risk, portfolio and capital management, and of course...apply that system with consistency, discipline, and patience! Thanks as always for your comments, please keep them coming! Regards, Carl @TM.
Good for the past few years.
they traded commodities, not the SPX
Doesnt work. Ive coded an algorithm in a very detailed very specific manner 100% accurate and it’s a loser on hundreds of stocks all of the commodities it’s just too random to sporadic to volatile.
Did you back test it? And only deploy for the ideal markets
Confusing AF.
I talked to Russell Sands a few years back and his results were terrible
skeptic cause you cant do it
@@TaflonDon turtle traders in right place at right time , blind luck not genius , I am a proffesional trader and YTD i am killing it