Niall Ferguson | The Most Spectacular Historical Folly
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- Опубликовано: 26 сен 2024
- In this clip, Niall Ferguson provides his perspective on the threat of China from an Australian viewpoint. He dispels the myth that China does not have imperialist intentions and argues that we are grossly unprepared for Chinese aggression, given our abundance of natural resources, sparse population, and close proximity to China.
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Our politicians would rather focus on race based policies and letting drag queens read books to kids.
Isn't that part of the 'internal destabilisation' agenda?
That's a distraction.
@@olivegrove2615 .. It’s a complete and utter waste of taxpayers’ funds that should be ensurining the security of our nation.
@@olivegrove2615 could be right, turning your country trans and weak is a sure way to lose Australia
100% correct. And I wonder how much the CCP has to do with that. Whether it’s through paying off politicians or influencing and taking advantage of our media and schools to turn our ideological Marxist buffoons that can only focus on quackery.
The battlefield is now, and has been for some time. Hybrid warfare, starting with internal destabilization operation.
Yep, and here is some destabilisation in action. As with Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Ukr.... sth America Haiti, Sudan, Russiagate, ... just follow the money to see who runs the empire (using NFs definition).
If 'imperial ambition' is to be measured by the number of times a nation involves itself in military confrontation, then China does not rate. If, on the other hand, we think of the military conflicts in Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq, we have a very clear understanding of who such an imperial power might be!
the answer is too obvious.. they who rattles and panics like the noisy stream of a river that's too shallow for its evil intentions to go unnoticed. interestingly, its the other way of seeking approval and justifications for something sinister that they are about to perform right in front of the yet uncorrupted minds of the public.
Yeah. America is far closer to being an empire than China is. France too. To the detriment of people in Africa & the Middle East
You argument has a serious fallacy. Did you forget the Korean War? what about the Sino-Indo war? And the Sino-Russian conflict in the 60s? Plus the war with Vietnam? They were quite ambitious aggressions CCP embarked on given its relative (or lack of) economic and military strength at those times.
uhmm...China involved itself in the internal affairs of Korea and Vietnam for 100s of years, including both the Korean Civil war in the 1950s and the Vietnam war of the 1960s, it even invaded both nations. Not to mention Xian Wars, The Conquest of Tibet, the 2019 Hong Kong riots, the conflicts that stem from the 9-dash line and Taiwan. I mean really even a passing interest in the history and politics of South East Asia would dissuade one of this ridiculous notion.
go read a book.
@@vmedhe2 The scope and scale of U.S. imperialism trumps China and it’s admittedly dark foreign policy history. It doesn’t even warrant comparison. You mention south east Asia. Now broaden your horizons and include the Middle East, Central America and parts of Africa and Europe. It is very difficult to compete with Uncle Sam on this index of “imperial ambition”.
To have a strong and well equipped defense force would simply imply that we are racist and not concerned enough with our invaders feelings.
Well Stated !
@@albertgrant1017
Thanks Albert 👍
Brilliantly written and to the point.
That's bs.
Defence please, you're a former UK colony, not a US colony. 🙂
Is Niall suggesting a Chinese invasion and occupation of Australia? a continental landmass separated from China by over 7,000kms of sea? That certainly would be an historic event for a nation that isn't confident it can invade and occupy a small island just over 100kms off its own coastline.
Imperial China worried of invading taiwan why usa intervention. Buffoon
Look to the medium to the long-term for such an event - but don't discount it.
Distance is almost immaterial if you begin by destroying your target from within.
its foolish to venture over 7k km to conquer a vast desert. Even the British used the land for convicts initially. China is simply not interested i am sure.
The Empire of Japan got very close. CCP China is bigger, both in terms of population, and the same goes for its navy. Taiwan is staring down the barrel of a gun.
Correction: A century ago, Qing did not take over a big chunk of Russia. Rather, Russia took over a big chunk of Qing (Treaty of Aigun, 1858). Anyways, it’s not that China never made any conquest, it’s just that it wasn’t able to during mass Western land grab when the compass of history turned against China.
Bruh, when China conquer the sea before the west, they only do trade visit.
Free Tibet
96 years before Columbus discovered the New World, Zheng He’s fleet of 100,000 people arrived in India and Africa. When they got there, they unloaded ceramics from gift ships and distributed them to the local people. They did not establish colonies, did not seize Negroes as slaves. When returning to China from Africa, only giraffes and zebras were brought back. Today Indian fishermen are still fishing with Chinese nets (they learned the technique and still call it that till today).
@@tellme8140 Tibet peacefully jointed China some 700 years ago, not even one person get killed in that matter, Mongolian wiped out 25% of world's population but not in the Tibet case. If you insist free Tibet, you should talk to Mongolian, not Han Chinese. You may want to check the map and see where Tibet was 700 years ago in the map, Just google: Yuan dynasty, wikipedia. Anyways, it has nothing to do with the CCP.
@@hanfucolorful9656 China is Han China....Tibet don't share culture with China
If Ferguson was born 200 years ago, his idea will fit right into British empire colonial mindset. Too bad, British is not what it used to be.
He has common sense, something by the sounds of it you don't have
Well, like brothers, the US is following in the British footstep.
@@davidbridge5652 Rubbish, Ferguson is an apologist for the British Empire.
@@davidbridge5652 This is not common sense. This is out of touch lunacy given a platform only because he holds a prestigious position at a top university and he is pushing what the US wants him to push. This is fearmongering with no grounding in reality. Plain and simple.
@@davidbridge5652 He supports the Western hegemonic ambitions. That's what he is proposing. It's not common sense, because the rest of the world has the right to choose and develop themselves apart from the Western world. The West although preaches about freedom, but it would only support the freedom that works in favor of their interests, once another country wants to have a freedom that goes against their interests, it will be crushed without mercy. The pretense that the West is the defender of freedom cannot be further away from the truth. It's plain obvious that's the truth. Look at the case of the Middle East and the conflict that's happening between Russia and Ukraine. Even though the Russians and the Middle Easterners are wrong, it doesn't give the West the right to bomb and sanction them to death. That offends the very principle that the West preaches that its morally superior, that freedom is above justice thus bombing and expanding its military is justifiable . That's why there are so many doubles standards and hypocrisies we see in the international relations because whatever the West does is justifiable and whatever the rest of world does is never justifiable even though it has the right to choose to align itself with the West or not.
Australia will be fine, they have Thor, wolverine, the Hulk, Zeus, Lady Galadriel, Agent Smith, and a whole bunch of other kickass action stars.
Rest easy, Harley Quinn will wipe out any Chinese attackers with a baseball bat.
Troll😊
No Barry humphreys now he would scare the sh#t outta them chinese
🤣
. . . and the criminal genes of their forebears.
With this kind of ppl with this level of understanding of China as “senior fellow” at one of the most prestigious university in the US, Chinese can rest assure they will succeed
Are you being serious or being sarcastic?
As a Chinese, we don't want what America has, r u joking me😂😂😂😂 What America has? Guns, drugs, homeless....???? We r happy we don't have what America has, we just wanted to develop and grow and earn respect, if u know our history 😂😂😂😂😂
@@What.7777 As a third person, China is just as much implerialistic as the US; they are both empires/ bullies. Tho with its autocratic nature,l it has even higher capacity to inflict heavy damage on other people/ countries.
@@What.7777 Americans are unbelievably ignorant and uninformed about the history of China.
The West is so insecure right now. I’m giddy.
I doubt the Chinese want to invade a large barren land when they can just buy the minerals and steel directly from Australia.
They already own over 15% of Australias agricultural land, most of the dairies in Tasmania, ALL the goods handling capacity at evry major Australian airport, Alinta Energy, a large proportion of the water rights to Australias rivers, and we "import" their "students" who then get preferred status to stay, so we have inexcess of 2 million Chines living in Australia too.
@@wyattfamily8997 not according to the Foreign Investment Review Board.
Sooner or later people will realize it's no joke and hasn't been for a long time .
@@wyattfamily8997 And they took all that by force...did they!?
The Chinese are Traders.
Mindless endless War is more an Anglo thing.
When a criminal tries to think like a gentleman, that’s what this guy comes up with here.
China hasn't been kicked out of 109 countries. There is a group of people that has though....
agreed!
@@dudebro3250 hmmm... this! This guy is promoting globalization, diversity, and immigration... while these topics have merit he and his Zionist masters are picking off populations that are resistant to Change... first it would be the white population. The war in Ukraine and a possible war in Russia will decimate the white population... And then he will go for Asia.
or he thinks his criminal boss is a gentlemen
@@dudebro3250 In the past, yes, because China's culture wasn't as scientifically-curious or adventurous as the others.
China's being kicked out of all sorts of places because of COVID-19 now, though, isn't it.
"Imagine China... Bla bla bla..."
Imagine if War Profiteering was illegal then we could join China in creating a peaceful world.
Stupidest comment for 2023
Yeah, just ask the Uighurs in detention and the Tibetans.
Ken out here with smoke and mirrors
@Michael Plunkett The Uighurs were being brainwashed by Madrassas installed with recycled petrodollars from Saudi. It was part of the great game to break China and Russia up into pieces. The Uighur concentration camps were much more humane than the Chechen war. Concentration camps work. Uighurs are no longer a Takfiri threat on China's flanks. Think of Uighurs as the same as Mujahadeen the CIA and MI6 employed as Takfiri mercenaries, but with Saudi funding.
Peaceful, like sending nuclear armed fighters towards Taiwan?
Australia/US pokes and antagonizes China at every chance, yet act surprised when they react.
Cemeteries are full of people China "reacted" on. 😢😢😢
@@jamesmyszka4930 Whatever aggression the Chinese may done against others in the past, pales in comparison to Western imperialism. Almost every country in the world has a story of western aggression against it.
@@hapemokenela7388 Lol. "In the past"??? And if we're going to be truthful, it's the US who ended the imperialist system. The US continues to provide naval protection to developing countries from China and other bad actors so many nations can trade globally, helping millions out of poverty. Is the US perfect? Certainly not. But people are traveling the world (including Chinese) to get in the US, not out. It's so bad, people continually risk their lives to get here.
@@jamesmyszka4930 - name a country where China created cemeteries?
@@blue-xb1cq Korea, Tibet, Mongolia, India, Russia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China itself, etc... just to name a few.
Would like to see a Niall Ferguson & John Mearsheimer debate.
Indeed Australia is a prize , to China - and not just as an holiday destination .
And New Zealand will make a nice little country club for wealthy Chinese autocrats.
@@ianjenkins5389 What rot you spout.
@@amraceway Glad you are so confident that 5 million Kiwis are going to tell the future economic and military superpower what is going to happen. In ten years time, you will do what Bejing tells you, or else. At least Australia ( belatedly ) recognizes the threat. Anyway, as a resident of Europe, we have our own problems with Russia and Iran. I couldn't care less what happens to a tiny country like NZ, just one big sheep farm and the last stopping off point for Antartic expeditions.
@@ianjenkins5389 China through its massive economic power is the largest player now on the Monopoly board. Unlike the US they will buy rather bomb to get the influence their money gives them. The Western politicians and corporations have fallen over themselves to get in on the Chinese economic miracle while completely ignoring the fact that china was building a socialist market economy to benefit the majority , not a greedy few. John Anderson while in governm,ent was part of the conservative force that thought selling Australia's northern port of Darwin to the chinese for a pittance was a smart move.I notice he doesn't bring this up in his conversation with his guest.
Thing is its buying us. The invasion is insidious.
The premise that China would invade Australia is pie in the sky... and Niall needs a geography lesson because China and Australia are as far away from each other as are China and Europe, the close proximity narrative is just not based on fact.. ...
Keep dreaming in fantasy land and live to regret later. China already owned the governments of Africa. Why not Australia?
invade Australia ? LOL ...in this era it means commit sucide. i just couldnt believe sometimes this kind of public figure take the audiences as idiot. People are lack of critical thinking but not as worse as that much.
There are many ways to take over a nation. One might be to get a permanent place for your voice to be heard in Parliament, by paying for puppet indigenous people to represent your views.
China is closer to Australia than Japan is. Are you completely ignorant of the events of 1942? Distance is not the primary issue - control of the sea & air is.
Wishful thinking on your part. The CCP is a totalitarian state cashed up and dangerous.
We can't talk about the ones causing the world's mayhem.
That would be usa and its vessels then ,the brainwashed comments are proof this lot listens to msm.
"We can't talk about the ones causing the world's mayhem."
By we, are you referring to Ferguson?
Feel free to point out who you think is the cause, but perhaps be prepared to be ridiculed if its something silly like: 'jewish banker conspiracy', etc.
A "relatively close" China is 4,628 miles away, a little closer than Hawaii. And their "probably imperial ambition" will hurt themselves more by cutting off all the trade ties. Of course, if you really want to try, you can "probably" prove their imperial ambitions by stopping trade with them and see if they act like your (definitely not imperialist) ancestors 180 years ago.
Oh, I think we know of their imperial ambitions by their disregard for UNCLOS to claim the whole of the South China Sea where they have been building installations on disputed islands. And just a little bit closer is the Chinese controlled port of Darwin.
So true!
Deal with the problem at hand not from 180 years ago. Confusous say. No I say
He takes advantage on many people's arrogant ignorance about China. "We don't have to know anything about them, they should just do what's convenient to us!" Meanwhile, their imagination runs wild with paranoia.
A misguided and derainged professor at best.
China already has full access to the commodities Australia has to offer. They just buy them on the international open market like everyone else. It's much easier, cheaper, and simpler than mounting a full-scale military invasion and perpetual occupation of the whole country, including our cities. This guy has not thought it through. The Chinese Belt and Road project is all about securing the Chinese economy's prospects for the future. And doing that for their own countries is the duty of every government. The US is very jealous of China's economic rise and is wanting to start a war, thus canceling a staggeringly huge debt to China, incurred by the US as a result of the world banking crisis of 2009-10. If successful, this war would cripple China, removing it as an economic rival, which is also what the US wants. This guy is part of the war-drive push to prepare the population for war with China. I have to admit, he came across as quite smarmy and smug too.
"The US is very jealous of China"? this isn't a high school drama. These are rationalist countries trying their best to impose their will and gain/maintain economic and military power over each other.
Demographics will destroy the Chinese economy and they don't need any help from the West to achieve that result.
China’s economic rise was created by America
So there’s that
No true why buy when you can steal for free
Niall and other experts/people in Washington will learn that hyping up a threat to an unreasonable level is just as detrimental as underestimating a threat to an unreasonable level
si vis pacem, para bellum.
So given china's constant verbal threats, harassments of ships, hostage taking of westerners on dubious grounds, stealing tech, influence campaigns in the west, and boycotting products as a form of blackmail, Niall is maybe underestimating the problem a bit.
@@Ed-bq4rp China verbal threats for past 10 years vs US actual invasions for past 50 years. China influence campaign vs CIA training insurrection armies (1959 Tibet insurrection, who funded ISIS at the start?). China boycotting product vs US forcing Japan to sign plaza accord. China harass ship vs US Monroe doctrine. C'mon, read more wiki would go a long way. Unless you are willfully ignorant
maybe if we can be more honest to ourselves we can both dissolve misunderstandings if there exists or fight more truthfully if it demands
PRC doesnt help itself in that regard.
Apathy is one of the greatest Australia atrributes. I am an Aussie by the way.
I was going to comment, but I just can't be bothered, Mate. 🇭🇲🤠👍
@@robanderson473 I love your videos mate. I am an Aussie who has lived in South America for most of the last 27 years and I despair for my sunburnt country that I love so much.
@@robanderson473 LOL!
With great effort...I agree.
@@robanderson473 😆😆
A smart Australia would be a global powerhouse with massive nuclear capabilities now. But we’re we’ve been lulled by the wowser, green mentality and it’s just seemed to go from bad to worse. In saying that I’m not sure all our allies would be happy that we were muscled up and not reliant upon them.
Australia doesn't have the people to be that and they don't really want to be either.
I am all for nuclear power and weapons for Austria by Australian's. I think the Greens are Firetrucking insane, if we could I'd ban them!
@@johnboy14 …. In GDP terms, we are in the same category as many nations that are classified as mid-level powers. We *could* make military aggression against us so expensive that paying the market price for our commodities looks cheap by comparison.
We don’t have to have a bigger military than China, just one big enough to convince them to look at other options.
And we could afford that, if we gave up luxury, vanity and feel-good spending and devoted the public purse to matters of greater priority. Heavily subsidising unreliable power in the fallacious belief that we can be a world leader, comes to mind.
Australia has the resources and the technology to become an independent nuclear power. How ever Washington would never permit that. Canberra is not independent from Washington.
"But we’re we’ve been lulled by the wowser, green mentality" -- like many western nations, but does Australia have the capacity to recover from that, or as COVID has shown, are most Australians (like most Westerners) now just fearful and easily led sheeple?
This malaise applies to Europe also.
We need to be prepared to defend ourselves and the west as a whole. We can’t depend on the Americans forever.
I think America in general is better positioned to manufacture supplies the countries on the front line, rather than necessarily having actual forces there, simply because of the distance. Simply because of the distance from those countries - it provides a safe place to make things but being further away makes providing forces a bit more challenging.
So, I think America makes an ideal secure source of supplies, but logistically it makes more sense for the fighting forces to come from those countries located on the potential conflict zones.
Not that I'm a military expert or anything
The lesson for Europe is not that it should depend less on the US. It is that it should reduce its economic dependence on China and embrace the fact that the latter is an authoritarian nation with no respect for values of liberal democracy
@@thomassanta5686 Malarkey. Europe has as many problems with the rise of the right-wingers as the US does. Europe and particularly the EU cannot stand on its own as a world power. They are too heterogeneous. In the coming cold war of the 21st century between the US and China, Europe must stand behind the US and stand behind the principles of liberal democracy
@@joaoascencao575 I think you're talking about The West. they have no respect for democracy
@Thomas Santa if you're sleepy, you should get some sleep
He has a point. Which means that Australia needs allies and could not remain neutral.
Australia is in the front line, it can't be neutral. it will be forced to choose.
You're both spot on. Australia has never been able to defend these shores alone and has zero choice but to support her friends. People talk as if it was up to us to decide . Our grandparents never wanted the first Cold War either, they knew submission was only alternative.
So, China wants the Indians and the Pakis to lead their country and the immigrants to take over their country? Another word, China wants the immigrants to turn their country into the cesspool of humanity?😂
@@oo00oo9 Why did John Anderson's political allies sell the Port of Darwin to the Chinese then?
@@b.alexanderjohnstone9774 John Anderson's political allies selling the Port of Darwin to the Chinese for next to nothing was a really smart idea don't you think?
If Niall is so against empires, why does he never criticise America?
Who says he is against empires?
@@moptopbaku6022 he is against any nations that threaten the West in any sectors... he is essentially pro dictatorship as long as the West controls the dealings of the world... which the West themselves are but a minority in the global stage.
follow the money, the answer is always there.
Because America is not an Empire, it is a hegemon.
he's an extreme white supremacist. usa empire fine
Another lesson of history is to avoid war ie the opposite of what Australia is doing now. Giving massive US weapons companies 380 billion...billion....yep, billion, dollers so the US can park its subs here to go and menace our biggest trading partner. I would call that a 💩 deal, wouldn't you. Thanks Albo🎉
Couldn't make it up. Only a cpl of years ago all ozzies would have laughed their heads off at the suggestion that there would be a transfer of wealth from Australia to the us of 400 billion !! (At minimum).
Why don't you develop your own arms industry, or have UK as a trading partner, who cannot bully you in the same way
@@Rowlph8888 heres a suggestion. How about trying peace?. And trade?
@@ike637 Unfortunately, the species prefers war, if you hadn't noticed
Funny thing is that South Korea got a sub park over there as well but it's completely free. Also, they got a whole lot of business deals from the US to manufacture stuff while we have to pay so much for 3 subs LoL.
So very well expressed! Absolutely spot on.
you dont even know history and you say spot on...monke
Spot on what? Lies spot on?
Completely ignorant of actual history
The cold war was never over.
The only people saying so were the fellow travelers.
This man makes a great living out of ' fear '.
Can you refute his claims?
@@liamrmorgans921 I will start worrying when Chinese troops are in my street, in the meantime I will get on with life.
@@freeagent8225 ok.. that’s a pretty lazy admission.
@@freeagent8225 You're clearly a Chinese bot.
@@NegativSpace-pd6czWould rather live than worry, still I do have the rice cooker on warm 24/7.
I blame the universities for all our weaknesses here in Australia
Nope. blame everyone in your country that knew what was happening for the last 40 years for not having stood up and fought it at any level that mattered because they thought it should be someone else's problem to deal with
The same problem the USA and every other country have in play right now. We are not here because the left is so strong, we are only here because good people (The gatekeepers) have stood idly by for decades while the enemy walked right in and set up camp inside everything.
I think it is universal suffrage. At beginning of democracy only men could vote, now most voters are women. This explains bias child custody, child support, employment and healthcare laws. Western democracies have a bloated welfare budget because of this, and little left over for defence. If they need defence, they have to borrow for it, because ladies want their welfare first.
Blame for what?
What he's actually saying is we can't fleece the BRICS nations anymore so we're looking at australia
Keep CCP trolling.
True statement...when you're #1 becoming #2 is a very bitter pill to take
BRICS = corrupt dysfunctional dumps. Everyone that can and has just 1 dollar to his name flees these places without hesitation.
"What he's actually saying is we can't fleece the BRICS nations anymore so we're looking at australia"
I dont get it, who's fleecing who?
Id honestly forgotten about BRICS until you mentioned it; its an odd mix and I dont think its really going anywhere in any hurry. I notice that Brazil's current leader was cozying up to Jinping, but Russia is isolated and at war, and South Africa struggles to even keep the lights on.
Seems like a pointless alliance, except as it gives the perception of getting away from the US, EU, etc.
@@lieshtmeiser5542 random alliance of corrupt impoverished nations, yes.
Theres a reason the west dominates, and that the US has the reserve currency. And BRICS as of right now hasn't even come around to realising that. Let's just say they have a long way ahead of them.
I think the Belt and Road program will be a good thing for many poor countries on its roads and ports. I think he is overthinking the issue
You let them build you a road and then they belt you with a debt?
Australia is a virtually undefended prize, from a Chinese capabilities perspective.
what will cost china more to pay autralia materials at market price or to have a war with Australia and its allies? china would not think a hot war an easy win as Trump thought a trade war with china.
You clown China in its entire 4000 years history has never fought a single war outside of its hemisphere.
Who do you think China is? Britain or the US.
Chinese don't fight wars away from their homeland.
The PLA is for the defense of the Chinese people and nation. Thst is why 99% of their military is back in China.
The US is the one with 900 military bases all. Over the world including more than 300 encircling China.
Flying near the Chinese homeland sailing across the Taiwanese straight.
China has Russia to sell it's resources to China.
If China wants something from Australia they will pay market price for it.
That’s dumb
China doesn't interest in Australia's land,
Chinese is NOT American, they don't falsely accuse others so to justify bombing them and robbing them. And certainly not like Australians who invaded Afghanistan and committed war crimes there in murdering children!
I have very little sympathy for Australia. It looked to China for their handling of covid and went complete authoritarian.
There is grain of truth in this comment, I must admit.
@@mariusztomaszewski1662 Grain? There is an industrial estate full of silos.
It wasn't Australia it was the state governments that are aligned with the CCP.
@@olivegrove2615 they certainly went A LOT further than most other countries. Maybe Canada and Austria would be the only ones that comes even close to the authoritarianism that we saw in Australia.
@@olivegrove2615 especially Victoria. with a psychopathic Manchurian candidate scumbag at the wheel.
where is the proof that China has any imperial ambitions. you have top go back to 1790 for that. Even then it was more a case of suppressing aggressive neighbouring states or rebellious provinces. Moreover the imperialism consisted of having tributary states rather than colonies. Presenting tribute involved theatrical subordination but usually not political subordination, For some groups e.g. the mongols they discovered that the gifts received from the Emperor outweighed the cost of their tribute and more than paid them for not attacking China.
Taiwan good starti g point ok buffoon
Good for him, he must be nicely paid for this nonsense he's spewing.
The minute he’s saying Qing Empire took a big chunk of Russia and he call him a historian 😂.
I think he erred when he said that. Anything pre-Mao isnt hugely relevant to what China is now.
And he kind felt proud of what he said
If we hear no evil, see no evil and speak no evil of our Asian friends what is there to worry about.... right?
Fear is the key to “defend the nation”
Manufactured fear is the ‘Key’ to get the population to support. All nations do it. Look at all the USA placards during WW-2, depicting Japanese or German behavior.
Nope. Fear is the road to War :
“Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don't want war neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship.
Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”
― Hermann Goering, Germany Reborn
What did they pay you for this Niall, now that your book sales have declined? Seriously
This guy seems to beat the drum of war instead of seeking peace.
Finger pointing at China cannot hide the facts of US aggression and European colonisation of so many countries around the world. Does Australia really have the financial strength to prepare for war against China?
I think we should listen to the recent talk by Paul Keating. To me, he is much more sensible.
We will fight
@@andymcrae4661 you will do no such thing,
You must have your head up your arse.
He said a recurring lesson of history is "to have peace, prepare for war".
He said China is expansionist (Taiwan, Hong Kong currently, Asian Russia historically), & repressive (reducing freedom of citizens, limiting political expression)
He pointed out China's intentional policies of building western dependence on China's manufacturing capacities & markets, building Chinese hegemony in Asia.
All of which is identifiable.... and your response is "but America is evil"?
Paul keating bob hawke old farts they started trade deals with China keating will never admit his big mistake
@@andymcrae4661 nukebweapons like Israel
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance but it would seem that past governments for many years have been anything but vigilant.
This guy needs to take history lessons again.
Too busy practicing his foofy British accent
China has imperial ambitions, grabbing chunks of Russia in Qin(Chin) dynasty that really lost me. My history lesson was the other way around. When US is questioning China’s ability to reunify Taiwan less than 200 miles off its coast Australians should be able to rest easy for a long while.
We welcome China's imperialism over The West's imperialism. They still have slaves today
The Sino-Russian border conflicts (1652-1689) were a series of intermittent skirmishes between the Qing dynasty of China, with assistance from the Joseon dynasty of Korea, and the Tsardom of Russia by the Cossacks in which the latter tried and failed to gain the land north of the Amur River with disputes over the Amur region. The hostilities culminated in the Qing siege of the Cossack fort of Albazin in 1686 and resulted in the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689 which gave the land to China.
Come on, almost all of the European countries and especially empires, were doing absolutely the same at that time.
@@iliyaniliev6798 That is true
One would argue that Qin is of Manchurian heritage and is not of Han heritage. They are not considered as Chinese
We have been casually strolling towards our own demise. We pay ourselves too much, we work too slowly, we are way too slack. We need intellects and analysts like a Niall, John Anderson and Greg Sheridan to wake us up! Many thanks.
If you have worked OS you will know that Aussies are workaholics. I think we are lacking a coherent national story and a commitment to a national purpose, that is, we are lacking visionary leadership. It can be built.
ruclips.net/video/tx72tAWVcoM/видео.html
USS Liberty attack shows who runs America.
The West has been degrading and China is doing what it can behind the scenes. While the West fights over illegal immigration, welfare, transgenderism, global warming, and feminism, China wants to take over the world and be the lone super power. The West needs to wake up and embrace military strength, strong work, and family values, secure borders, energy production, and love of country. China is sitting back laughing while we implode. You can be sure that they are encouraging this.
I am stunned by the lack of common sense this Ferguson guy possesses..
Regret to respond that Ferguson does not read his history of PRC and the province of Taiwan, nor the 3 communiques. A pity
A criminal that stole other person's home somehow believes a normal person would do the same to him.
Since when did Stanford University become a mouthpiece for the Amercian Industrial military complex?
Thanks John. Very concerning stuff.
In which part of Neil's history did he read that "the Qing dynasty was tearing chunks out of Russia". It was in fact the opposite, Russia expanded toward the East meeting and displacing Chinese settlers at Vladivostok, and elsewhere in Russia's far East.
He claims Australia is an attractive proposition, yet it is far from China and there are nearer territories in central Asia.
The problem with Neil's thinking here is that the West is talking itself into a war with China on the basis of suspicion and supposition. Australia, quasi-nuclear arming itself and aggressively interfering in China's problem in Taiwan and the South China Sea creates cause for necessary retaliatory action from China that hawks can use to point out and say "You see they intend to attack us".
Neil doesn't tell us that any military action against China to defend Taiwan would constitute an 'act of war' against a China diplomatically recognized as the sovereign of Taiwan under the one-China policy that underpins existing diplomatic relations between Australia and China. In short, by international law, if China attacks Taiwan it is a civil war and internal affair. However, if Australia or the US attack in retaliation it is a declaration of war.
To my mind history should record that it was the US and Australia that initiated the current aggressive narrative - which is underpinning an arms build-up, against China. The hawks want war and they'll get it but victory isn't assured and it'll create a shadow of what the world once was.
Besides, it is no longer "they want what we have", for the most part, and for a third of their inhabitants, as anyone who's been to China would attest they actually already have what we have and more.
Many thanks, both. Carry on!
Every where I shop and look at labels state Made in China. Why can't Australia make its own products!
Because if people are given the option to buy much lower priced imported goods , they will not pay the price for Australian wages and overheads.
Because the price of labor is very high in the west as well as the west destroying industries with corporate takeovers....
Because it will cost at least ten times as much.
Energy is cheaper in China so it's very cheap to manufacture. Our "leaders" keep doing whatever they can to destroy Australian maufacturing by closing Coal Fired Power Stations acheap reliable way to generate electricity. We do this to "save the world". Meanwhile China currently has 1,110 C.F.P.S. an additional 92 are under construction, with a further 148 in planning. So Australia s needs will be manufactured by CHINA, using C.F.P.S. which will operate using Australian Coal.We have idiots for "leaders".
Because the people who used to do manufacturing in the west outsourced all the jobs to China.
Wow, so many accusations and big words, no actual facts and evidence to back them up. I will be surprised if this Niall guy really believes in what he was spewing out
Niall Ferguson is a great novelist, China didn't take a chunk of Russia, it's Russia that expanded to Chinese border. John Mearsheimer too advocate for a joint Australia & US deterrence, he was more factual and truthful in his pitch. This bloke doesn't sound very credible.
China wants a common wealth worldwide that benefits all people, this has been misinterpreted by those whose immediate interests seems to be harmed and those who do not know and understand China.
He said Ching dynasty took over a big chunk of Russia ? OMG definitely didn't do his homework 😔
He's spot on! China wants want you have if Chinese were westerners!
Unfortunately, this is the same for America...based on what I've seen for almost 4 decades I lived there!
The US is the biggest war mongering nation on the planet. The fact that it commits terrorist attacks ( eg Nordstream) with apparent impunity should be an eye opener to all
His stench of entitlement is palpable
He does believe the world revolves only white people
China has no imperial ambitions. China hasn't fought a single war since 1979, over 44 years ago! How many wars has the USA fought? Dozens, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, in particular.
Ferguson cites the Qing Empire. That was over a century ago! If you want to cite century-old history, let's look at the United States:
- The US slaughtered millions of indigenous people to steal their land.
- The US fought a war with Mexico to steal their land (which became the Southwest United States).
- The US fought the Spanish-American War and colonized the Philippines.
- The US overthrew the Hawaiian monarchy and made Hawaii the 50th state.
- The American Empire stretched around the world with American Samoa, Cuba, Guam, Hawaii, Northern Marianas, Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Wake.
Let's just focus on recent history, shall we? If you look back far enough, all countries have exhibited imperial tendencies.
Ferguson is seen as a world class historian, but surprisingly when he analyzes China, he turns into a Karen.
Naill Ferguson is the epitome of Thomas Sowell's definition of "intellectuals". Knowledge gained from countless textbooks do not necessarily have real-life applications.
Murica needs more people like him. This will be the rise of humanity and hope for real peace for the rest of the world. Except murica...
@@PrimeChaosVC we do not need more ignorant liars…. We already have politicians
😄😁
Agreed 💯
I wasn’t aware China was still ruled by the Qing empire.
Incredibly well put
Niall makes up history as he goes along. Invading Australia would require defeating the US in the pacific and the cost would be astronomical. Sorry Niall, please listen to Paul Keating for a lesson on how to deal with China.
Well said.
What Paul Keating misses is that the USA has no loyalty to countries that undercut its China policies yet still want US led security. Australia would face China alone and Australia is 10X easier to invade then Taiwan. It is too large to defend by so few people.
Niall is absolutely right. The danger is real and coming sooner than expected. The Chinese imperial ambitions are massive. Their ego and tyrannical mindset is incalculably stubborn.
So what? The decline of America is inevitable judging from the unsustainable of fiscal deficit and ballooning sovereignty debt.
this guy got a ZERO in Geography and an F minus is History 🤣
you don't need an education to be a grifter
Who got a F minus in history? If you mean Niall Ferguson, I suggest you look him up.
Wise words whose wisdom will be appreciated most in hindsight.
West is just scared. Everyone choosing China out of free will. Sick and tired of the greedy West. China never conquered. The West has enslaved people, facts, The West starts quarrels between governments, facts. The West makes up lies about nuclear weapons of mass destruction to justify invasions, facts. China is just building and we welcome it. Stop the jealousy, white people. Humble yourselves
Qing dynasty was ruled by the Manchurian tribe and has been regarded by many historians to be non-Han/Chinese ancestry. This is similar to Yuan dynasty which was rule by Genghis Khan, another non-Han tribe. So yes, one would argue that the Chinese has not demonstrated imperial ambition at least over the last 300 years.
Only if you think that China is a race. It isn't. Aside from that, the idea that China is "Han" is half of China's problem and the reason it's viewed as near-genocidal against its own citizens.
Many Tibetans would disagree with you
The imperial expansion was not uncommon throughout Chinese history.
The context is based on recent history.
As a civilizational culture, China already has what it wants, but looks to extend its economic reach at which, through its peaceful world view, social and cultural values, attitudes to education, especially in science and technology, it is rapidly succeeding rapidly. In most, nay all, western democracies, there is tremendous suffering being experienced by about 40% of the population. There is no virtue in the freedom to be poor. China's stunning example of having lifted approximately 900,000,000 out of poverty over the past 30 years is wondrous to behold and is something the west should seek to emulate! They just fritter the nations' wealth instead on wars!
They did that because western companies have moved to China. Those poor people worked in factories developed and owned by western companies.
Niall is right - we are definitely vulnerable!
Thank heaven the US did come to support us in World War 2 but we cannot assume they will definitely come to help us next time a war arrives here.
The possible reopening of trade with the Chinese has the risk of Australian's becoming complacent to the risks once again.
We have all been warned with the "Wolf Warrior" very blunt diplomacy towards western nations for past few years.
The Chinese are long renown for "playing the long game".
We all know we have a wonderful country let's protect it for future generations.
This is why Australia needs to promote CANZUK!
Canada is becoming more totalitarian by the day. Trudeau loves China.
Frankly , I'm stunned by this bellicose mindset that is so common in the Anglosphere.
The Chinese have just brokered the resumption of diplomatic ties between the Saudis & Iranians.
They have built infrastructure in the ASEAN countries and in Africa.
The Chinese want to do business , plain and simple.
A basic question : how many military bases does China have around the world ?
It so happens that the US has four - hundred of them - out of their eighthundred odd - surrounding China.
Will ' Aussie ' ever look for its own interests , and stop playing ' second fiddle ' for the American Establishment , as it used to do for the British Establishment in the past ?
The arrogance is so well reflected in body and verbal language, one that think all other races do not deserve. Many can see this... world is not blind and that naive today.
What a weird statement. I am not sure if it is intentional misdirected or merely inadvertently so.
How is Niall Ferguson a historian. The Qing empire was not taking large parts of Russia instead it’s the other way around. In addition, that land that is currently part of Russia is the northern part of manchuria, the ancestral homeland of the Manchu people that ruled the Qing empire. A true example of Chinese expansion was during the Ming, when Zheng He sailed to Africa and exchanged gifts with the africans and did not colonized or enslaved anyone like the Europeans.
No, China has what YOU want. You came within 20 miles of their border in 1950 but were defeated in a series of battles that resulted in a humiliating stalemate. The Anglo-American Order then - in Vietnam - sough new opportunity to drive defense industry profits and - once again - push "democracy" to China's doorstep. Defeated in Vietnam, the Anglo-American Order now beats the drum of war in Asia again over Taiwan. The Anglo-American Order will fight to the end for Taiwan because without Taiwan as a staging area, there will be no "regime change" in China AND "regime change " in China is what the Anglo-American Order wants more than anything. The Anglo-American Order salivates over China's rare Earth minerals and other resources.
Without the Anglo/ Americans defeating the Japanese...need I go on?
Have another cone mate
@@mikemines2931 The vast majority of imperial Japans forces were in Manchuria, if anything China bore the brunt of Japanese aggression at high cost, but also stifled their expansion for the best part of 5yrs before the US got involved. And when the allied forces diverted their attention eastward after successes in Europe, the race was to comprehensively defeat Japan (by then a spent force) before the Russians and Chinese.
@@pikachus5m166 No doubt you could have beaten off Uncle Joe then, he also had eyes on Manchuria and without the two nukes going off would have taken it.
@@mikemines2931 In fact, the US were the chief suppliers of energy and materials that fed the Japanese war machine, until the ban that resulted in Pearl Harbour. As for the atomic bombings, undoubtedly warcrimes done for geopolitical purposes, consequently resulting in a 45yr long Cold War. Now the declining US have started a second one, solely for maintaining hegemony.
Being a large island with a dispersed population makes Australia hard to invade or control.
Cannot imagine China attacking Australia .
But then who could have thought and believed Pootin would attack Ukraine ??!!...
I do believe that Niall was also a visiting Prof at Tsinghua, which makes his words even more valid.
Not for several years, and all his predictions of "Chimerica" have fallen flat, his speeches during the pandemic proved false, and now he flip flops and gives out more false conclusions.
@@pikachus5m166 He still has links to and in China because of his past.
His 3 part documentary from 2010 "china triumph and turmoil" is on here, it is worth a look.
@@pikachus5m166
Well alot of people thought China would become a first world nation, and become a direct peer. Not slide back into the cold War.
It's also aways prudent to look at thr enemy and see what he CAN do not what he can't.
I am appalled by the ignorance of this guy particularly his knowledge in China Russia history.
Perhaps an issue here is, who do Australians see themselves as, Euro's in the sun, or a nation of what might be called Oceania who desire links with their closest (geographical) neighbours. Only Australians themselves can answer this question. Indeed, we must all ask ourselves that question.Who are we?
You've got a similar decision to make yourself.
Keith, or Robert?
@@gomperhooblet Hahaha hahaha.
It is Russia who had taken over a million square kms from China in the Ching Dynasty. Mostly north of the Amur River.
nearly two centuries ago Russia took land from China not the other way
there was no imperial China a century ago as well.
, this man needs to learn History. the folly here is the mans understanding of what happened.
Excellent! To me it's quite clear that, against nuclear dictatorships, there is only one cost-efficient way to prepare for war and it is to get nuclear weapons or to get into a military alliance vowing credibly to use nuclear weapons if a single member is attacked.
Doesn’t China have a no first use policy for Nuclear Weapons? I believe USA and NATO don’t have the policy
@@jamiebrake855 LOL. A policy is a sentence away from being undone in a communist dictatorship.
unlike Imperial Japan, China is not out for conquered territories - we need give up confrontational policies. War must only be defensive. Every nation live in peace and prosper together. A rational and calm mind is better at solving differences.
if this man is not a warmonger i don't know who is, he totally disregarded basic facts, only interested in provoking people with fear
I notice that most people who have an agenda rarely balance their own argument. Please note, I did not say he was wrong. You may want to understand the difference between "forcasting" using factual detail and a "developed hypothetical" which of course this presentation was, and please note, I did not say he was wrong.
What about Thucydides Trap? A historically factual argument wouldn't you say!
"forcasting" and "developed hypothetical" sound like they could be bed-partners...
What is the difference?
If you can’t present a convincing argument that he is wrong, or even that he might be wrong, what on earth are you trying to say? That predicting the future is hard?
The issue is not whether NF has a perfectly functioning crystal ball, but whether the risk is as great as he argues and whether we have paid our insurance - and we very obviously have not.
If you can’t present a convincing argument that he is wrong, or even that he might be wrong, what on earth are you trying to say? That predicting the future is hard? That he should have done what you cannot?
Try to keep in mind that this is a five-minute segment of what is normally an hour-long conversation. If you don’t know what else he said during that hour, your point falls flat.
The issue is not whether NF has a perfectly functioning crystal ball, but whether the risk is as great as he argues and whether we have paid our insurance - and we very obviously have not.
@@anthonykuster4192 Oh, sort of but even that is unclear. If you looked at China the same way you might watch a corporate takeover you might see how clearer minds think. I don't keep up with most things and don't even know who the speaker is I just understand when in a dialogue set there is a base agenda. In the speakers micro expressions he is reading a script which could mean a number of things but mostly it says he has an agenda, I heard no disclosures related to an agenda. It (his agenda) might be good bad or neutral but of all the five lies, lies of omission are the most insidious, I wouldn't have even commented if he had outlined his personal position, all I saw was a conversation that could have been more credible
'We've been in a relatively peaceful time since the Cold War' (0:00). Tell that to the Panamanians/Iraqis/Afghans/Somalis/
etc. Historical logic, indeed. There's nothing the Chinese are doing in Central Asia/Africa which the American's haven't been doing since 1776, except 400 military interventions in foreign countries, half of which have taken place since WWII, and a quarter of which have taken place since the end of the Cold War.
That is how a paranoid narcissist would feel and react when others are improving themselves.
Ferguson is right. Australia should be prepared. Take reference from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and the list goes on.
Oh, come on. AI and quantum computing being the main aspects of the "arms race" of the new Cold War is to ignore what war is. Just look at what is happening in Ukraine. You even have WWI weapons being used, effectively. AI and quantum computing are tools. Tools are important. What I get from Niall and many other pundits who throw around these terms is that they are just picking up on the buzzwords of the time.
Leasing ports and airport's too them is insanity
Who is "them" ? Why should Europeans, American and other Asians get deals that the Chinese can't ? Most of the major corporations have no true nationality at all, they are pure profit machines.
And traitorous.
The Chinese has enough money to buy Australia outright. You think they want to spend money on a war that will destroy both Australian and their own resources? That's just the shortsightedness of colonial robbers who cannot see beyond brigandry and invasion.
Fascinating
7000km away 100+ U.S. military base in between, absolutely Orwellian way to say: let us gang up for Anglo hegemony.
China will go to Taiwan first before Australia. We are literally on the other side of the world. Saying that China has the margest Navy in the world now so if anyone can do it it would be China.
It is always enlightening to see an obviously intelligent man get distracted by the faults of others and so blind to those of his own culture.
He's not talking about faults. He's talking about intentions which in this case are frightening.
@@cameronblack7984 intentions that he perceives as ‘wrong’ and therefore ‘faulty’ against the background of an emerging one party state in the US
@@davidgriffin8958 I think it's safe to say that imperial intentions are wrong.
@@cameronblack7984 Especially when they are held by people who criticise others for having them; democratic imperialists
Just another CCP stooge.
The risk assessment is appalling based on very narrow understanding of history and military interventions in last 200-300 years!
Thank you very much Dr.Ferguson for speaking up about the danger from CCP.
Yeah, Imperial Japanese Navy had their sights on Austraila as "easy pickings". Only reason they did not is they couldn't maintain the supply lines over such a distance and they wanted the troops needed for such an invasion in Manchuria to protect against a move by Russia. Australia had no defenses to speak of. Had Japan won at Midway, achieved a "Cold War" status with the US and kept their "Co-Prosperity Sphere" in Asia as planned, Australia would have been forced to submit or be crushed.
A very refreshing presentation.
A very one-dimensional presentation.
Couple of points here. He says the Qing were taking chunks of Russia. It is debatable that that land was claimed by any nation at the time. We're talking about the vast wilderness of Siberia. Not a populated place, so cannot be called "imperial" to the extent that British colonisation can.
Secondly he says that everything was "ok" when the Chinese were manufacturing all the West's stuff and underpaying their workers. But it wasn't ok for the Chinese workers.
The Professor is only happy if China serves as a vassal state of the West
Like you, I am finding the dbl standard from an intelligent man, frightening.