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Wow, those sellers in California are getting seriously greedy! After their properties doubled in value in just two years, they won't even budge on a 3% or 5% price decline. I bet a bunch of buyers bounced on the market a long time ago before them.
My 2.8 rate property cash flows +$1500 a month, rent has never gone down in my lifetime. A lot of people in the same boat those properties are never gonna hit the market unless rates drop that low again
Price’s on homes in Santa Barbara have been up up up since the mid 1970s. I know, I grew up there. My parents almost lost there house and land because of taxes tripling. Prop. 13 saved them.
I just read a post from a guy about the PPP loans really just rings. True for me. If you think about it money became so cheap. Lotta people in this country got money for nothing and when that happens, you don’t care about the price of things or at least you don’t care about over paying for things and that’s what has happened in this country.
Yep this is 2006; all over again. I bought my first house in the early 90s after the 80s banking crisis. This just keeps happening over and over again.
Indeed it is. If you look at the first beginnings of the 2008 crash, there were 3-5 cities where it began. San Fran. Seattle. Portland. Dallas. LA. They went down significantly while most everything else was declining slightly, or at a plateau. Those areas are in trouble today. In addition, if you look at the past 3 corrections, 1990, 2000, 2008 there was a brief period of 6 months on average, where prices rebounded slightly when the FED stopped raising rates…or it was clear that they were going to stop. That is the time, in all three cases, when the ‘experts’ said the correction was over. They were wrong. And in all 3 cases the serious declines began after the FED began to cut rates. In the GFC rate cuts began in late 2007. It took about a year before prices crashed hard. Low inventory. Low interest rates. Reluctant sellers. None of those things will matter once unemployment increases and more people are underwater. The increase in continuing jobless claims clocked in at 45%, the second highest on record and the highest since 1969. When continuing claims are at that kind of level a recession has always followed. And so has a steep decline in prices.
@@Pelican5077 “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care.”
Its just investors holding on white knuckle status to their precious portfolios...not going to mean anything if we dont raise the debt ceiling...china getting ready to invade Taiwan Id more trying to get in shape for WW3 than buying a house. Greed and corruption of free market has been the fall of western society. As a millennial I never experienced how great this country is just heard stories and I was born and raised in it.
I think Orange County is still strong. It hasn't really gone down in price. I use to live out there. If my house were in Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo, or RSM it would be worth over a million easy with no doubt. My salary is the same as it is in CA.
This is actually good news for home buyers. As a seller in early 2006 I was stubborn too. Relax, keep your credit good and keep stacking your cash; the catastrophe is coming.
@@straightdrive6192 The same rationalizations were used prior to the last downturn. The inventory jumped up as the economy deteriorated. The optimists always come out during the calm before the storm. By wealthy, you probably meant highly indebted.
Yep this is 2006; all over again. I bought my first house in the early 90s after the 80s banking crisis. This just keeps happening over and over again with only a hand full of the 1% and previous generation on lookers who are privy to the truth.
@@toinengwyn3935 why this is different than 2008 is because Information, Statistics is available to everyone in their hand (mobile phones) during GFC there was not even a smart phone , Problem 2 - Every crash bro including you think that they know more than others. Every person buyer or seller knows that economic downturn means and most people are well prepared including corporate America because of lessons learned from GFC. I seriously think people, sellers especially are aware of these facts and will be hold on to their 3% mortgage and their homes and crush the buyers after couple of years. Home prices are bound to increase with FED reducing rates. Same can be told about stock market and all other assets.
Thank you Jason! I saw the split of affordable and luxury home and per sq ft price added. I think that's a very good info. With the material and labor price didn't drop down yet, so do employment rste, plus home owner hold the historical low interest rste, hard to see a drop per square ft
I have a low interest rate therefore I can never move. Just like a jail cell. But I have good rate and that is all that matters. I don't care if I get a new job offer making more money because my rate is more important. I was thinking about early retirement but now that is not possible because I can't afford to lose my rate. My son was thinking about moving closer to us but he can't do that because he has a great rate too.
That is to be expected as the economy gets worse the only people's remaining in the housing market are people with much more solid financials. As layoffs increase and credit criteria tightens the median will skew upwards because blue collar workers can no longer participate to the same degree.
As I predicted houses will continue to go up because of extremely low in supply. Usually this time of the year we have 3-6 months of supply because people wants to move but it ain’t happening. Like I said homeowners have less than 3% aren’t selling. It makes Zero sense to trade less than 3 to higher rate. Once the fed pivot to lower rate bidding wars is all over the place again.
@@House_hacker_619 A fed pivot doesn't work that way. The Fed will only reverse rates once an economic calamity occurs. At that time, nobody will want to lend or borrow due to fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Asset prices (including real estate) will continue to nose dive consequently. Prices did not bottom out for many years after rates were cut during the GFC. To re-iterate, economic hardship (e.g. job losses and reduced incomes) trump low rates. People can hold out for a while like they did during the GFC. However, economics eventually catch up. When this happens, supply will catch up as well. This time, the specter of high inflation presents an even greater challenge. As THX1138 pointed out, the upward skewing of median sales prices is caused by an extremely low sales volume and the composition of sales. Deteriorating economic conditions negatively impact the lower end of income earners first. This is similar to what happened during the initial stages of the last major crash.
@@House_hacker_619 I’ll settle for quarters on the dollar any day over your permanently high plateau pie in the sky delusions. This time, it’s still not different.
@@toinengwyn3935 first of all you’re not going to get rid of the demand. I’m giving you example like myself. I bought my 2nd house in San Diego last August with interest rate of 4.375. One of the best decisions I’ve ever made. I have to be realistic we have extremely low on supplies and I had to find ways how to combat inflation which is house hacking and job stability. The house came with 2 ADU and I’m already making 3500 a month which covers my monthly mortgage. Im charging 500 less than rental market and it only took me 2 hours to find renters. Before I switched to long term rental I was doing Airbnb on one of ADU a private studio and 50% of my tenants are looking to buy. Only reason I switched to long term because of me and my wife work schedules. Now I’m saving all that money and I’m looking to buy in 2 years because my 1st house in San Diego will be paid off. You can add me on demand listings. I’ll have over 100k in savings and looking to invest in different states like Vegas or phoenix. I’m not just buying one I’m buying 2.
“Home prices in the US just posted their first annual decline - by a minuscule 0.2% - in more than a decade. Some bearish pundits and real-estate investors are taking it as a sign of more dire drops to come, predicting a bubble burst or even a crash. But don't expect home prices to drop much farther in most areas, Skylar Olsen, the chief economist at the real-estate marketplace Zillow, told Insider reporters in a roundtable discussion. It boils down to a lack of inventory, she added: The number of homes for sale is still too low.”
The fact that home sellers are quitting is great news . The home prices well exceed the livable wages in many areas . Values doubled and people with zero financial understanding got greedy . What they don’t understand is if they don’t sell now , this time next year they will wish they had reduced 3% . We saw this before . Houses went to $750,000 in 2007 and by 2011 that same house dropped to $345,000 . That recession was also caused by tech and financial industries. Tech boomed and financial institutions gave crazy loans . Sound familiar? The last 12 years we have had the biggest tech boom country wide , expanded even more due to work remote trends . At the end of the day this can sustain due to now physically making anything . These companies don’t produce they only sell . When you have a situation like this prices rise till they can’t anymore then boom , everything drops off a cliff . Judging by where we are currently in 2023 . Look for the cliff to be here a lot sooner than most are predicting . Everything is happening much fast than 2008 .
Appreciate your own analysis. I can't follow your reports while multitasking on anything else, but when actually sitting down and watching the graphs and spreadsheets while you explain your thought process, it is very helpful. Thanks!
The decrease in home sales at the higher end it what is decreasing the median sales price. Prices aren't actually going down much we're just selling more houses in the lower range of the market thereby pushing the median sold price down.
Thank you Jason! In southern Los Angeles homes in the 1M+ price have been cutting prices. Do you think as rates stay high for longer there will be less buyers for the expensive homes? The only people who can qualify to borrow 1M+ are the 1%. It will cost about 8k per month to finance 1M with property tax, insurance. So they have to make at least 20k per month to qualify and that's if they have 0 debt...
California is a special case because there is an artificial scarcity of single-family homes. Lots of barriers to construction and sales. But the rates of change are telling, anyone looking at that data and not seeing growing softness is not thinking clearly.
I said it a year ago and I am saying now, when the interest rate rises the prices of homes goes down, however unless you must sell, people will not, I am now selling inventory far away from home that I do not want to deal with, and purchasing cash, or owner finance. Seniors are most likely to finance, they like the monthly income, specially if the home you want is their spare or vacation home.
“CHICAGO (NewsNation) - As part of the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s push for affordable housing, homebuyers with good credit will soon have to pay higher mortgage rates and fees to subsidize people with riskier credit ratings, according to a report by The Washington Times.”
This time is alway different. But it never is. All the people who say they’ll never sell will be falling over themselves to sell if they hit an unexpected life challenge. If unemployment goes up, watch out below.
All reports out there to scare buyers . Let’s remember when the the crash happened before a lot of sellers bought them homes for a lot of money and for whatever reasons sold these homes for dirt cheap .. keep watching the cycle until the end .
Thankfully we bought at a great price and at a great interest rate with zero money down, NON VA, We paid for appraisal, it came in on point, We paid for inspection, The seller paid for repairs/replacements the inspection found that thankfully weren't major, they paid for closing costs, We overpay the principal ever since our first payment was due in early summer 2021, , already knocked over 5 years off the life of the mortgage since our first mortgage payment was due, We have the double homestead exemption. Starting in 2024, we will save around 140 a year on property taxes then once we hit 65 in 7 years property tax STOPS. There ARE great deals out there, will be out there! Biden did deal home buyers a terrible blow by literally penalizing buyers with great credit, has the down payment funds available. According to that clown's new rules, starting in May, Someone who buys say a 400k home WILL be paying 40 MORE PER MONTH. FYI, USDA You can get in zero money down, The PMI is FAR LESS than with other types of financing. For example, ours is only 18 a month. They WILL COVER acreage, They WILL COVER man homes and they WILL COVER the set up. USDA covers areas that are like 35k and less in population.
Thank you for your analysis. This quick rise is clearly because of the free money from Calfha. People rushed to get the money, and the low inventory increased the prices. California prices should continue to go down like Arizona. It always takes time for individuals to accept reality, once they realize , they will all compete with each other to sell. According to Dallas Fed Report , the government can not let the price left up and distant from real value. The patient is the key for buyers. Last year, fake news was loud and ignored any drop in the price.
The CA high end of the market is getting hammered - the rich are fleeing for numerous reasons, and money isn't as easy as it was. Looks like a recession is brewing already in California. When it hits the rest of the country, who knows, but CA leads the nation. And this is based on the data, not on any animus to CA, which has enough problems these days.
@@Needglory23 Unemployment is a lagging indicator and is always lowest when the recession hits - and then it soars quickly. Relying on that as a safety blanket will get you nowhere, you are looking in the rear-view mirror with rose-colored glasses on.
I think, post plandemic, the impulse for private single family residences is still strong. Sellers don't want to sell unless they're leaving an area and can find accommodations in the new community. Buyers are still willing to overpay. No one wants to be without a house when the next plandemic is released.
@@youprobdontevenowncrocs3191 foreclosures are at all time low . Slight uptick is fine , no big deal . Its a bet that prices will be back to say 2022 levels but will not breach lesser than that .
Thank you Jason. You do realize that California is a big state right? How valuable is it to mention the decrease in sales for the whole state when different areas of the state are so different. Might as well just mention the whole US, or even the whole world. Heck, why stop there. How are real estate prices in the milky way galaxy year over year?
Most people selling in CA move within the state. Looking at the entire state actually smooths out regional issues that distort the numbers, if you sell here, you move there, but it's all accounted for. Jason is awesome at doing regional looks within CA, too, but looking at the entire state gives the best overall look at housing changes.
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Remember if something is down 7% year over year, that is actually at least 13% down in real terms. Half of this downturn is "silent".
Love the analysis! Though, it's discouraging to hear about the rising home prices, but I appreciate the heads up and will keep an eye on the market.
Wow, those sellers in California are getting seriously greedy! After their properties doubled in value in just two years, they won't even budge on a 3% or 5% price decline. I bet a bunch of buyers bounced on the market a long time ago before them.
Lol, I was one of em. Never selling my 2.8 interest rate, good luck.
@@gravity-zero2917 You might not, but others will. Job losses trump rates.
@@gravity-zero2917 Nah man, we don't wanna do it, but the situation is making us.
My 2.8 rate property cash flows +$1500 a month, rent has never gone down in my lifetime. A lot of people in the same boat those properties are never gonna hit the market unless rates drop that low again
@@lyricalmaven Agreed. Either rates have to go down or appreciation has to be so high that its worth selling.
Santa Barbara has been up up up----no inventory multiple offers
Price’s on homes in Santa Barbara have been up up up since the mid 1970s. I know, I grew up there. My parents almost lost there house and land because of taxes tripling. Prop. 13 saved them.
Great data stats
Definitely appreciate the analysis- this is a substantial difference maker
Thank you kindly
Houses in california are still wildly overpriced
Things have gone up by hundreds of percents mostly in few years and it drop by few percentage points? Get outta here
Thank you for the video!
My pleasure! Good morning
Yep low supply in central coast area makes current homes sell for full asking which means high prices. I hope patience will pay off
Thanks for all the work you put into these videos Jason!
I just read a post from a guy about the PPP loans really just rings. True for me. If you think about it money became so cheap. Lotta people in this country got money for nothing and when that happens, you don’t care about the price of things or at least you don’t care about over paying for things and that’s what has happened in this country.
Yep this is 2006; all over again. I bought my first house in the early 90s after the 80s banking crisis. This just keeps happening over and over again.
😂🤣
Indeed it is. If you look at the first beginnings of the 2008 crash, there were 3-5 cities where it began. San Fran. Seattle. Portland. Dallas. LA. They went down significantly while most everything else was declining slightly, or at a plateau. Those areas are in trouble today.
In addition, if you look at the past 3 corrections, 1990, 2000, 2008 there was a brief period of 6 months on average, where prices rebounded slightly when the FED stopped raising rates…or it was clear that they were going to stop. That is the time, in all three cases, when the ‘experts’ said the correction was over. They were wrong.
And in all 3 cases the serious declines began after the FED began to cut rates. In the GFC rate cuts began in late 2007. It took about a year before prices crashed hard.
Low inventory. Low interest rates. Reluctant sellers. None of those things will matter once unemployment increases and more people are underwater.
The increase in continuing jobless claims clocked in at 45%, the second highest on record and the highest since 1969. When continuing claims are at that kind of level a recession has always followed. And so has a steep decline in prices.
@@Pelican5077
1980 recession home price increased +6.1%
1991 recession home prices decreased -1.9%
2001 recession home prices increased +7.6%
2008 recession home prices decreased -19.7%
2020 recession home prices increased +6%
@@Pelican5077
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care.”
@@Pelican5077 Boom! 100% truth.
Definitely enjoy the in depth analysis.
Its just investors holding on white knuckle status to their precious portfolios...not going to mean anything if we dont raise the debt ceiling...china getting ready to invade Taiwan Id more trying to get in shape for WW3 than buying a house. Greed and corruption of free market has been the fall of western society. As a millennial I never experienced how great this country is just heard stories and I was born and raised in it.
Thank you so much Jason!!
Really appreciate you!
Thank you Matt! Have an awesome day
I think Orange County is still strong. It hasn't really gone down in price. I use to live out there. If my house were in Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo, or RSM it would be worth over a million easy with no doubt. My salary is the same as it is in CA.
This is actually good news for home buyers. As a seller in early 2006 I was stubborn too. Relax, keep your credit good and keep stacking your cash; the catastrophe is coming.
That's right another 2008 crash, here we go! But even worse! Buyers it'll be our time soon enough
Nope it’s not , keep waiting 😂 too few inventory , extremely wealthy and well of sellers , lowest foreclosures in record .
@@straightdrive6192 The same rationalizations were used prior to the last downturn. The inventory jumped up as the economy deteriorated. The optimists always come out during the calm before the storm. By wealthy, you probably meant highly indebted.
Yep this is 2006; all over again. I bought my first house in the early 90s after the 80s banking crisis. This just keeps happening over and over again with only a hand full of the 1% and previous generation on lookers who are privy to the truth.
@@toinengwyn3935 why this is different than 2008 is because Information, Statistics is available to everyone in their hand (mobile phones) during GFC there was not even a smart phone , Problem 2 - Every crash bro including you think that they know more than others. Every person buyer or seller knows that economic downturn means and most people are well prepared including corporate America because of lessons learned from GFC.
I seriously think people, sellers especially are aware of these facts and will be hold on to their 3% mortgage and their homes and crush the buyers after couple of years. Home prices are bound to increase with FED reducing rates. Same can be told about stock market and all other assets.
Great analysis
Why are Arizona builders building so many houses now?
Thank you Jason! I saw the split of affordable and luxury home and per sq ft price added. I think that's a very good info. With the material and labor price didn't drop down yet, so do employment rste, plus home owner hold the historical low interest rste, hard to see a drop per square ft
Wow, inventory decreases and prices have decreased. That’s backwards.
Demand leads prices. Demand is plummeting faster than inventory is.
I have a low interest rate therefore I can never move. Just like a jail cell. But I have good rate and that is all that matters. I don't care if I get a new job offer making more money because my rate is more important. I was thinking about early retirement but now that is not possible because I can't afford to lose my rate. My son was thinking about moving closer to us but he can't do that because he has a great rate too.
It really helps people understand the true deltas instead of just exaggerated headlines
That is to be expected as the economy gets worse the only people's remaining in the housing market are people with much more solid financials. As layoffs increase and credit criteria tightens the median will skew upwards because blue collar workers can no longer participate to the same degree.
As I predicted houses will continue to go up because of extremely low in supply. Usually this time of the year we have 3-6 months of supply because people wants to move but it ain’t happening. Like I said homeowners have less than 3% aren’t selling. It makes Zero sense to trade less than 3 to higher rate. Once the fed pivot to lower rate bidding wars is all over the place again.
@@House_hacker_619 A fed pivot doesn't work that way. The Fed will only reverse rates once an economic calamity occurs. At that time, nobody will want to lend or borrow due to fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Asset prices (including real estate) will continue to nose dive consequently. Prices did not bottom out for many years after rates were cut during the GFC.
To re-iterate, economic hardship (e.g. job losses and reduced incomes) trump low rates. People can hold out for a while like they did during the GFC. However, economics eventually catch up. When this happens, supply will catch up as well. This time, the specter of high inflation presents an even greater challenge.
As THX1138 pointed out, the upward skewing of median sales prices is caused by an extremely low sales volume and the composition of sales. Deteriorating economic conditions negatively impact the lower end of income earners first. This is similar to what happened during the initial stages of the last major crash.
@@toinengwyn3935 whatever you say bro. If you’re still expecting pennies on dollar good luck.
@@House_hacker_619 I’ll settle for quarters on the dollar any day over your permanently high plateau pie in the sky delusions. This time, it’s still not different.
@@toinengwyn3935 first of all you’re not going to get rid of the demand. I’m giving you example like myself. I bought my 2nd house in San Diego last August with interest rate of 4.375. One of the best decisions I’ve ever made. I have to be realistic we have extremely low on supplies and I had to find ways how to combat inflation which is house hacking and job stability. The house came with 2 ADU and I’m already making 3500 a month which covers my monthly mortgage. Im charging 500 less than rental market and it only took me 2 hours to find renters. Before I switched to long term rental I was doing Airbnb on one of ADU a private studio and 50% of my tenants are looking to buy. Only reason I switched to long term because of me and my wife work schedules. Now I’m saving all that money and I’m looking to buy in 2 years because my 1st house in San Diego will be paid off. You can add me on demand listings. I’ll have over 100k in savings and looking to invest in different states like Vegas or phoenix. I’m not just buying one I’m buying 2.
Like the extra analysis would love to see for Houston TX
“Home prices in the US just posted their first annual decline - by a minuscule 0.2% - in more than a decade. Some bearish pundits and real-estate investors are taking it as a sign of more dire drops to come, predicting a bubble burst or even a crash.
But don't expect home prices to drop much farther in most areas, Skylar Olsen, the chief economist at the real-estate marketplace Zillow, told Insider reporters in a roundtable discussion.
It boils down to a lack of inventory, she added: The number of homes for sale is still too low.”
And we should trust Zillow and the real estate industry because?
Inventory will open up as the Boomers retire, downsize, go into assisted living, or flat out die.
Great analysis, hope you do this more often
The fact that home sellers are quitting is great news . The home prices well exceed the livable wages in many areas . Values doubled and people with zero financial understanding got greedy . What they don’t understand is if they don’t sell now , this time next year they will wish they had reduced 3% . We saw this before . Houses went to $750,000 in 2007 and by 2011 that same house dropped to $345,000 . That recession was also caused by tech and financial industries. Tech boomed and financial institutions gave crazy loans . Sound familiar? The last 12 years we have had the biggest tech boom country wide , expanded even more due to work remote trends . At the end of the day this can sustain due to now physically making anything . These companies don’t produce they only sell . When you have a situation like this prices rise till they can’t anymore then boom , everything drops off a cliff . Judging by where we are currently in 2023 . Look for the cliff to be here a lot sooner than most are predicting . Everything is happening much fast than 2008 .
Appreciate your own analysis. I can't follow your reports while multitasking on anything else, but when actually sitting down and watching the graphs and spreadsheets while you explain your thought process, it is very helpful. Thanks!
This such great information
The decrease in home sales at the higher end it what is decreasing the median sales price. Prices aren't actually going down much we're just selling more houses in the lower range of the market thereby pushing the median sold price down.
You would be correct⭐️
Yep funds were gone in 2 weeks in Cali
Thank you Jason! In southern Los Angeles homes in the 1M+ price have been cutting prices. Do you think as rates stay high for longer there will be less buyers for the expensive homes? The only people who can qualify to borrow 1M+ are the 1%. It will cost about 8k per month to finance 1M with property tax, insurance. So they have to make at least 20k per month to qualify and that's if they have 0 debt...
Looks like the lower priced homes are selling while the higher priced ones are seeing price reductions
California is a special case because there is an artificial scarcity of single-family homes. Lots of barriers to construction and sales. But the rates of change are telling, anyone looking at that data and not seeing growing softness is not thinking clearly.
Saturday morning nerd out, with Jason Walter. Let’s pray we get his excel sheet 👍 and let’s hit the like button 👍
Haha! Nothing like a good Excel spreadsheet to start your day 😊 Happy Saturday!
@@JasonWalter1 HaHa I'm was a little Hard to Deal with before the 0930 Brake at work.But that was 16 years ago..🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@JasonWalter1 yes it is nice - making spreadsheets is a good skill no doubt acquired from the accounting days
@@drmahidhar1876 yep!
March is a ridiculously crazy month!!!
So if we want to beat the curve we need to buy in January…. Only now do I know!
I said it a year ago and I am saying now, when the interest rate rises the prices of homes goes down, however unless you must sell, people will not, I am now selling inventory far away from home that I do not want to deal with, and purchasing cash, or owner finance. Seniors are most likely to finance, they like the monthly income, specially if the home you want is their spare or vacation home.
Huh?
You mean “seniors are more likely to do owner based financing on a secondary property that they are trying to unload?”
Now my head hurts😫
@@drmahidhar1876 Yes.
Can’t wait for video two, looking to by a home in San Diego county within the next 3 months.
this is great inside, can you please also use price/sqft in your analysis to find it's correlation with other factors, and the trend of price/sqft
Wonder if the new tax on high value homes pushed sales?
“CHICAGO (NewsNation) - As part of the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s push for affordable housing, homebuyers with good credit will soon have to pay higher mortgage rates and fees to subsidize people with riskier credit ratings, according to a report by The Washington Times.”
I know 3 friends looking to get of their rentals for cheeper ones can't afford the ones that they have now
Top end sales dropping - represents a bit of change since start of the year
This time is alway different. But it never is. All the people who say they’ll never sell will be falling over themselves to sell if they hit an unexpected life challenge. If unemployment goes up, watch out below.
Absolutely terrible😢😢😢
What’s terrible?
Hold the line! Stop buying!
😂 if only. People will do what they think is best for them.
All reports out there to scare buyers . Let’s remember when the the crash happened before a lot of sellers bought them homes for a lot of money and for whatever reasons sold these homes for dirt cheap .. keep watching the cycle until the end .
Thankfully we bought at a great price and at a great interest rate with zero money down, NON VA, We paid for appraisal, it came in on point, We paid for inspection, The seller paid for repairs/replacements the inspection found that thankfully weren't major, they paid for closing costs, We overpay the principal ever since our first payment was due in early summer 2021, , already knocked over 5 years off the life of the mortgage since our first mortgage payment was due, We have the double homestead exemption. Starting in 2024, we will save around 140 a year on property taxes then once we hit 65 in 7 years property tax STOPS. There ARE great deals out there, will be out there! Biden did deal home buyers a terrible blow by literally penalizing buyers with great credit, has the down payment funds available. According to that clown's new rules, starting in May, Someone who buys say a 400k home WILL be paying 40 MORE PER MONTH.
FYI, USDA You can get in zero money down, The PMI is FAR LESS than with other types of financing. For example, ours is only 18 a month. They WILL COVER acreage, They WILL COVER man homes and they WILL COVER the set up. USDA covers areas that are like 35k and less in population.
Thank you for your analysis. This quick rise is clearly because of the free money from Calfha.
People rushed to get the money, and the low inventory increased the prices.
California prices should continue to go down like Arizona.
It always takes time for individuals to accept reality, once they realize , they will all compete with each other to sell.
According to Dallas Fed Report , the government can not let the price left up and distant from real value.
The patient is the key for buyers. Last year, fake news was loud and ignored any drop in the price.
The CA high end of the market is getting hammered - the rich are fleeing for numerous reasons, and money isn't as easy as it was. Looks like a recession is brewing already in California. When it hits the rest of the country, who knows, but CA leads the nation. And this is based on the data, not on any animus to CA, which has enough problems these days.
Unemployment rates dropped back down to near record low of 3.5% last month.
@@Needglory23 Unemployment is a lagging indicator and is always lowest when the recession hits - and then it soars quickly. Relying on that as a safety blanket will get you nowhere, you are looking in the rear-view mirror with rose-colored glasses on.
I think, post plandemic, the impulse for private single family residences is still strong. Sellers don't want to sell unless they're leaving an area and can find accommodations in the new community. Buyers are still willing to overpay. No one wants to be without a house when the next plandemic is released.
plandemic? Misspelling or ebonics word mean _____?
1
Good morning, Steve!
@@JasonWalter1 Great morning Jason!😊
I was right for past 6 months , been screaming there is no crash 😂, in fact I expect it to go above 10-20% by next year
I'll take that bet
You were right? Do you not see the huge pirce cuts and foreclosures happening at acceleration across the country. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@youprobdontevenowncrocs3191 foreclosures are at all time low . Slight uptick is fine , no big deal . Its a bet that prices will be back to say 2022 levels but will not breach lesser than that .
Why do you think there is no crash? Just wondering?
@@mickekaybautista3967 No crash in many Bay Area zip codes, Very low inventory , very low foreclosures.
😁😁😁😁😁😁
Good morning! 🏡
28th
Very informative. Thank you!
Who is buying in California? Most are fleeing that sinking ship.
housing prices...
Bubble n Bubble.
Thank you Jason. You do realize that California is a big state right? How valuable is it to mention the decrease in sales for the whole state when different areas of the state are so different. Might as well just mention the whole US, or even the whole world. Heck, why stop there. How are real estate prices in the milky way galaxy year over year?
Most people selling in CA move within the state. Looking at the entire state actually smooths out regional issues that distort the numbers, if you sell here, you move there, but it's all accounted for. Jason is awesome at doing regional looks within CA, too, but looking at the entire state gives the best overall look at housing changes.