He argues inflation is an economic equalizer , but thats only for those with a certain financial profile of being in debt to creditors. For the rest, The wages won’t rise fast enough to keep up with rising cost of needs.
Maybe directly. But indirectly, debt creates new small businesses, which create new products, which creates new competition, which creates higher wages. So indirectly equalizes wealth as well.
@@robyhartland852 That is the myth perpetuated to enable the endless black hole of government spending. People create new small businesses, not debt. For a small business, debt is just another bill to pay.
@@robyhartland852 I think that idea has pretty much been debunked because the middle class in America has been steadily shrinking with each “bust” cycle. Big money has first access to the bailouts and easy credit while the middle class is left to austerity and the perverse result is that as all the malinvestment creates huge bubbles it inevitably leads to larger and larger collapses and with each cycle the middle class gets wiped out and greater and greater percentages of the wealth flow to the largest banks, large cap stocks and hedge funds that reap the benefits of artificially low interest rates and Fed bailouts while the middle class is wiped out and their market share is absorbed by corporate interests. You bet your ass if I try and get a loan I won’t have a .25% interest rate and if my company goes under I won’t get a bailout. It’s the opposite of a free market it’s corporatism and at its heart is the boom bust cycle created by artificially low interest rates (near zero or even negative) on government debt and collateral, which creates an environment that favors political insiders with access to all the benefits of governmental largesse and bailouts, and the malivestment and inefficient allocation of capital brought about by this cheap credit has become so bad I believe it is systemic and it will ultimately unwind in a GREATER DEPRESSION wiping out much of the remnants of the middle class and also much of the corporate world including many of the most exposed hedge funds. End the Fed and bring back sound money that is determined in the marketplace (not by corrupt governments) so that markets can function fairly and freely once again and these dramatic boom and bust cycles will become less severe and will be contained to certain sectors of the economy instead of being systemic! Only then will opportunity come back and the economy and middle class will be healed. Unfortunately it will take severe deflationary collapse before any real change comes to the central bank, fractional reserve lending system that has essentially financialized the whole economy and this fact is seen in that valuations in the stock market have become so malinvested and stretched beyond all rationality (because of this flood of newly created cash and huge amounts of leverage) that corporations like Apple are trading 300x their actual year to date earnings. That ^^ is malinvestment created by over 300 trillion (Counting debt derivatives in the shadow banking system that number could be much higher as much as 900 trillion dollars) in private, corporate and governmental debt, a bailout/insider trading culture and suppressed interest rates! Think of how overvalued all the large indexes are and how much debt all the nations of the world have accumulated in just a few years. And interest rates on the short end of bonds are zero or negative? With inflation raging at 5.5% even by government metrics such as the CPI? The interest rate should be 6% minimum on the short end in a free market. But central banks buy up all the bonds to keep those rates down with central bank notes. We no longer have free markets people need to understand this. That is why the middle class has been shrinking since the first major collapse post 2000. It all really began when the dollar lost its status as the singular gold standard currency in my opinion. But that is a whole other topic and personally I have begun to believe that what money is should be determined by the marketplace and never by government, because governments inevitably corrupt money through fraud so that they can finance huge spending deficits in order to wage wars and this also allows governments to grow far larger than they ever could if they had to actually tax the populace directly for everything they wanted to spend. That’s also another reason for a flat tax, or an equal tax rate for every citizen, because it actually makes government more politically accountable for their waste as they can’t play politics with the tax rate and cater to one group over another. A flat tax also usually leads to a lower tax rate overall and less governmental spending.
5:09 "Fiscal policy will be unable to neutralize" this is a powerful statement and it is true. They have exhausted all of their options and nature will take its course. As my mother used to say "there is a high eventual cost to easy solutions" and this country has been living on easy solutions for a long time.
1656302716467.png 532 kb pngtap on a clip to paste it in the text box.1656302716467.png 532 kb pngtouch and hold a clip to pin it. unpinned clips will be deleted after 1 hour.touch and hold a clip to pin it. unp"6_4inned clips will be deleted after 1 hour.yv 556 ,tt t🐶😊🦘🦘🥑🥶,ew,sg,sF4_"2&
@@pyroboobysmith359 Could be like post 1989 Japan and no line soup happened . Anyway i doubt parents of millennials ( the boomers / gen x ? ) would let them down ? I dont not think the generations we speak off in the 1890/1900 were as rich as those of today ….
@@sivi9741 Yes, but that generation could own a home and keep it. Now there’s so many taxes, expenses, insurance, and burdens to kill ownership so you constantly work for paying bills. Millenials will own almost nothing, not even the phone on their pocket.
Agree with most of what Neil is saying, but he’s wrong on inflation helping the middle class. Inflation helps those who have assets not the average wage slave.
Eh i think the point hes making is as long as inflation isnt insane the rise in standard of living due to inflation would still outweigh the inflation for most people
@@retvrn777 How exactly does you standard of living rise when the price of bare essentials (food, petrol, gas& elec) is going through the roof due to not only inflation but also climate change hoax taxes designed to turn the populous into serfs?
@@danielmccarthy3095 Don’t forget rise in real estate/rent and loss of power in pensions/fixed income. The poor are becoming poorer, the rich are using this printed funny money to buy up assets like never before.
The point he's making is that inflation = bad for creditors, good for debtors. Most middle class people are heavily in debt (this obviously excludes some of the poorest Americans, who may never had access to credit). School debt, car debt, credit card debt, etc. Once inflation surpasses debt interest rates -- people's incomes increases will quickly surpasses compounding interest, making debt easier to pay down.
@@iraqiimmigrant2908 In the long term inflation might be okay but they'll use the pandemic(bioweapon) to justify the inflation. They just can't stand to level with honestly.
"Takes away from creditors and gives to debtors", seems to me that creditors in this context are people who work for a fixed wage or have savings denominated in dollars, and debtors are wild speculators of price appreciation and decadent spenders. I am not so sure I see the upside to all of that.
@14:50 a more plausible explanation for the gains and improvements seen in the 40, 50 and 60 is during that time, we had relatively sound money as in a gold standard. Contrary to what was claimed, inflation accelerates wealth inequality as the recipients of new money benefit disproportionately from the poor who earn it after inflation. This phenomenon was noted by economists in the 1700s and again with the accelerating wealth inequality today.
It is wonderful to have such an insightful person still here with us to share his ideas. I have followed Howe since the late 90s and found his theory to be spot on! While I don’t have an opinion on inflation I do wonder if we can maintain our country socially or even from outside threats (adversaries). Virtually all 4th turnings involve conflict. Think about the last three (out of the six identified in the book): WWII, Civil War and Revolution. Will we dodge that bullet this time around? I’m not so sure we will. Inflation may be the least of our problems!
Adam,, love your interviewing style. You are fantastic and get along so well with all your guests and treat them all with respect. Thanks for the great shows!
My Zoomer children seem to react to the Millennial's. They like YT and watching content. None are interested in social media otherwise. The are very private in that sense. It's cycle not a straight line.
The only way to regain a sense of privacy again is to either isolate yourself from the panopticon or dismantle the techno-industrial system. Choose wisely.
I think their is a flaw in his perception that inflation is a solution for inequality of wealth. Rich people don't invest in treasuries. The Fed does. Rich buy farmland and commodities right now. They will sell the public what they need to survive and get even richer.
Not necessarily. Expecting inflation eventually (even if there is deflation first). Older people people are the savers so will lose wealth. Younger people with mortgages/debt will see it inflated away. That's wealth transfer. Not saying I like the debt mentality, just that that's the way it is.
@@Ruth-wu3vf Nonsense. There has been plenty of inflation so far and wages have not kept up. the generation that is working through hyper inflation will essentially do so for little to no reward. Never has inflation benefited the working class.... Ever. Enjoy starvation
@@pistilliproductions2930 Absolutely right! My father, who was born in 1913, used to tell about his childhood in Germany during hyperinflation. They ate sawdust bread. At first the sawdust was used to dust the pans. But as conditions got worse they mixed sawdust into the flour to stretch it. When my grandfather got paid, one kid would leave school and go spend every last Mark on whatever was available because the money became worthless the next day. I’m so sorry I lost it over time, but I used to have a billion Mark note from that era. This isn’t going to go well.
@@pistilliproductions2930 We are not in hyperinflation. All I'm saying is from what I remember of the 1970s anyone with debt (usually younger people) saw it inflated away, whereas older people (who disliked debt) found their savings decimated. Inflation was much higher than it is now. I prefer a lower debt non-inflationary environment myself. The reality is many small business employers cannot afford to pay higher wages.
Great interview, thank you. Neil Howe and William Strauss work is remarkable and beneficial. In terms of the Kondratieff Wave and the 18.6 year real estate cycle, if history does continue to repeat our research shows that after 2026 is when US land prices will start their downward trend, then the rest of the investment markets are likely to collapse from around 2027, for at least 4 years. It's like multiple cycles peak or topping at the same time, and then collapsing at the same time. Thank you again.
GenX has been slow to advance in corporate leadership because the boomers refuse to retire!!! The only way GenX has a chance is to leave the big corporations and move to smaller startups.
Why do you think they won’t retire? The politicians aren’t going to retire until after their funeral. I was ready to retire YESTERDAY! What’s their hold up?! They can’t take the money with them.
@@jessicamai7783 I think it's a mix of power and more money. The boomers at the top of large companies are pretty much selfish, which is pretty characteristic of the generation. Take take take and never give anything. They are the cicadas of the business world. Of course this is a generalization, but fairly consistent behavior. They invented scorched earth policies. They grew up hardened and angry coming out of WWII, which was the origin of their "every man for himself" attitude. Nasty in business and will stab you in the back while smiling to your face. The ancient politicians are the epitome of this behavior.
@@jimmichels7844 Sorry if I gave you the impression I was entitled. I've done ok by myself and can't really complain. My comment is just a generalized view on the topic..GenXers have a lot of experience and when they're looking at boomers in their early 70's not moving into retirement, I think there's an argument the boomers won't leave and have stayed past their welcome. There are a lot of crusty old boomers not willing to let go...perhaps I hit a nerve? I would generally agree the millennials are more entitled than other generations. Many I've hired think they're ready to sit in the C-suite right out of school with zero practical experience.
This is one of the best versions of the 4th turning talks you have done. Nice the evidence is so clear now. Five, six years ago it was not as clear. Crisis seemed averted, but here we are now, crisis returns to something even worse. Thanks for getting us prepared so long ago.
It is difficult to see the positive in inflation, when it eats away the value of your pension. The kids of rich boomers will be rich by inheritance, the unequal distribution of wealth is less a generational problem than an individual problem. Trying to pitch the young against the old is just a divide and conquer game of the billionaires.
the most malevolent boomer cannot plan to spend the last dime before the day of his death. Where i live heirs are entiteled to half of the heritage, irrespective of any tetament. Even if the relationship between parents and kids is really bad, the kids will get something, and this is in my opinion a personal thing and not a group thing.@@gauloise6442
I completely disagree with the idea that the price of anything going up by crazy amounts is great......its great for the top 1% but it's a huge tax and burden on the rest of usmiddle class or what's left of the middle class . These huge wage I creases he's talking about don't even cover 1/4 of the cost increases we have to pay now because of inflation . 100k a year job does not get you the same quality of life like it did right before the scamdemic. Food , housing , cars all the largest portions of our spending has gone up 15% or more in the past year and wages going up 3,4% don't cover it . Inflation is a tax on the middle class prepare yourselves for whats about to happen
I believe his point is simply that as long as the standard of living increases faster than inflation its still a net benefit ecspecially for the middle class, i dont think you realize how far we are living beyond our means rn, we produce nothing as a country, at best we come outta this looking like japan at worst mexico
High progressive income and inheritance tax rates in the post-WW II years were the chief tool of financial repression that limited US wealth inequality and paid down wartime debt -- not inflation; throughout the late Forties, Fifties, and into the mid-Sixties, the US was on a gold standard until the Guns and Butter policies of the 1960s forced the country (in 1971) into the full fiat "petro-dollar" era still operating today.
LeLocle Vietnam was such a uneducated blunder, made with ignorant fear. Vietnam was a FRIEND during ww2, then we and the French STABED them in the BACK! 😡
Regarding Neil's comment that we can inflate our way out of this mess... point made BUT due to the fact that we're FAR deeper in debt than any prior generation of Americans (or any nation since the rise of civilization) the risk of hyperinflation is far greater than at any time in the past and that will create social disruption on a scale we've never seen in our nation. Look to the Weimar republic to learn what resulted from hyperinflation there.
Good interview! Very interesting, but I think wealthy individuals, will fair much better in high inflation then the middle class, and poor. Fuel prices, and rent will just about wipe out the poor. Look what's happening in California, and I believe it's going to get much worse.
Did the poor fare well in the Weimar Republic during hyperinflation? Only the people with gold. Do the poor fare well in Venezuela and Cuba with high inflation ? Nope
Absolutely agree. What’s going to happen to all the renters in California when they get too old to work and don’t have a retirement account to subsidize their small social security check? If you think the homeless problem is bad now, just wait.
That's a prediction that probably has no basis and based only on a subjective "feeling"... That the national economy in 2 1/2 years will suffer a moment of inflation followed by a long term downturn.
I am seeing us going back into history--the 1890's big business and destruction of small businesses, the stock market being fed by the FED reminds me of the gilded age and the separation of the red and blue states can devolve into a Civil War. Will these issues be discussed in your next book, Neil. I would love to hear your ideas about what I am seeing.
The Fourth Turning is amazing, and Mr. Howe is a pioneer in generational theory. Great interview. I was intrigued by the interview, but noticed one inconsistency when predetermined events are mentioned. It is odd that someone who based their life's work on generational cycles at regular intervals doesn't believe everything is predetermined.
Most intelligent comment on this thread. Young gen-xers/millennials + were sacrificed for the older generations. We'll be cleaning up their crap for the rest of our lives.
During the depression, middle class debtors were no longer able to make their payments for business or farm loans. Consequently, their bankers seized the assets, the farms or commercial property. Poor were jobless as well and went hungry. Just like today, an over expansion of cheap credit can ruin debtors when jobs are lost and cars and homes are repossessed.
Interest rates can't rise as much as they went down in the last 40 years. Not even 10% as much, else the debt time bomb explodes and brings down all financial markets with it.
I like Mike's assessment. Wrt the 4th turning, look on the bright side. If the 2008 crash led to a decade (2010s) similar to the 1930s (80 years ago) then we have been through half the winter already. But, if the 2020s mirrors the 1940s then we are in a war of sorts (with China challenging USA etc), but curiously the unity you would normally expect to 'fight back' doesn't seem to be there. I can't see any alternative to more inflation eventually because I don't think they can raise interest rates, just like 80 years ago. That means any govt response, has to be fiscal but the money has to be spent wisely on directly productive activity, not welfare.
Ruth, I can see a black swan event. China invade Taiwan for the power of chips making, the necessity for the supremacy of China. I cannot predict the reaction of United States.
@@Kukaboora Neither can I, but the US is taking steps to onshore chip making. The plants are expensive to set up. I hope Taiwan and Japan are safe, but also at risk are countries surrounding the South China Sea; this is the second largest naval trade route world-wide (possibly the largest now) and has resources; that's why China wants control of it.
Interesting interview, Adam, but I wish you had spent more time asking Neil to give his forecast of changes in the financial markets over the next few years. Are we heading for a deflationary financial collapse (1929-1932 style) or something else? Perhaps Neil isn't the right guy for that question, but his response would have been quite interesting. I agree with others commenting earlier that "inflationism" (orchestrated by the US Government, the Federal Reserve, & the TBTF Commercial Banks) has been very destructive to our nation - and only benefits the richest 1% at the expense of the lower and middle classes. It needs to end.
I was worried when he mentioned war and very encouraged by his ultimately optimistic expectations even with the promised agitations of the next few years.
Is Argentina back? I haven't seen that one yet. Thought only the financial district is prosperous and funtional and the remainder of society travels for money, barters and rations. I'd love to see updated documentaries if anyone can pass them on!
100%. Taking no account of demographic change and the war being waged against the middle class, working class and white people. He sounds like a Hoover institution speaker.. There is no spring coming guys
@@niciassmith1204 How is the attack made on middle class and by who ? Which side of politic spectrum ? Hint: lowest tax since ww2 for corporations and the rich ….. Check the numbers how high it was. That period , they didn’t even have a FED put , today’s the market have a FED put and it’s free on top of it ( lowest tax toward society in 60 years while bailing them out with debts and inflation) .
I have listened to thousands of podcasts and this is the first one that I have heard Inflation being a good thing or Equalizer - I have read his book but his view on inflation a little strange - We all know our debt situation world wide with derivatives never before seen at this level - Just don't see how this ends well - God help us if the Kings decide to go to War
I question Howe’s cycles (turnings). He starts the narrative more or less with the American Revolution (yeah, he mentioned the Glorious Revolution in passing), then the Civil War, them WW2, and then now as crisis points. What happened to WW1? Possibly nothing changed the world as much as WW1, but he never mentions it. The Vietnam War upended America in ways that we’re still dealing with. He says that 9/11 had no lasting effect. What? The Patriot Act and the ensuing diminishment of freedoms is “no lasting effect”? i think he cherry picks historical pivot points to fit his story. Also, America is not the whole world. Russia and China have had completely different crisis timelines. How does that all play into the “turnings” paradigm? Never mentioned.
Exactly! Only those losers are in total control and will not give up their corrupt grip easily. Lest we never forget, many wars were fought/contrived for them THEM to get there..💪😡
I love this channel and this was probably the best interview I've watched. Ive never heard of this theory but I'll definitely be looking into this more. Wow, great stuff.
It’s interesting to hear his newer points of his book and perspectives. I think people use his book ( or just the title) to doom and gloom of revolutions. I wonder what Neil thinks of the surveillance coins by Central banks. It seems Neil is more optimistic in person which is a relief. My kids also will be their 20’s in the 2030’s so it’s another relief. We all need hope.
2022, the year of jubilee = the Great Reset = the Great Tribulation = the terrorism + the famine ( stock crash)+ the vaccine death ( the Revelation 6)?
When you drink to excess there is a hangover. This nation has pushed near everything to excess so what kind of hangover could that be? I hate to be so gloomy but it is the way of the world and repeated though human history.
If we know there are 25 year micro cycles and 100 year meso cycles could there be a 400 macro cycle? 400 seems to be maximum an empire lasts before it fundamentally changes into something different
I think its wild to go threw all that history, Finance, inflation and not speak one time about hard money and what happened when we went on a full fiat standard.
Of the last three fourth turnings one had economical disaster with a foreign war the other two had fighting on American soil with city's under artillery fire.
What Mr. Howe doesn't consider is that in 1945 the US had 23,000 metric tons of gold - 1/4th of the gold held by ALL the world's central banks. I can't see them getting away with creating enough "money" to buy up all the bonds institutions will be dumping today. Also, while inflation reduces the real value of debt it also causes wage gains to lag price increases. It's not the working stiffs who will do well, it's the holders of real assets, like real estate, stocks of oil & gas producers, gold & silver, etc.
You get to sacrifice just like your grandpappy. All so the elite don't get to bite the bullet. And people still believe Covid "accidently" leaked from a lab. LOL
15:00-yes about the 50s and 60s being pretty good, but inflation only took off at the very end of those good times, and was a big part of why the 70s were so difficult. Inflation was part of what killed the good times
Demographics. The largest generation has or is entering retirement and this group is on a fixed income. Inflation is in no way helping anyone already on a fixed income and experiencing the largest medical bills of their life.
On the benign side of Inflation, Mr. Howe is right, however, this time there are a couple of differences that could deny that "inflate the debt away" classical cop-out. First, free flow of Capital. It was easy to corral Capital in the 1940's, at some point, Roosevelt got away with forbiding the possession of Gold, but that's not going to fly in the era of offshore accounting and free circulation of Capital . And the other thing, Crypto. So, i'm not sure if Creditors are going to just lay down in the fetal position and take it, like before. "Brave New World " is still the most likely scenario, with Social Media playing the role of Soma, but there's still a chance it won't be as bad as that.
It is people, who make the system work - not history. It boils down to having a functioning moral compass to hold things together. Societies, throughout history, who went the way of greed, self-serving interests , "me first" and "as long as I have mine, to hell with everyone else" attitudes will bring the entire system down, to its knees. No matter what the powers that be attempt in their efforts to hold things together, unless a good, moral compass is paramount within people's lives, Society will fall apart.
I think what happens in each generation relies on economics. I hope you address this issue in your next book. The greatest generation were financially rewarded for fighting WWII and the country was manufacturing during the Great Depression and the baby boomers benefitted financially from this. However the younger generations were not financially so rewarded!
Speaking as an older Gen-Xer, the reason we are behind in everything including politics, is because we’ve been ignored since day one. Our mothers were taken out of the home in large numbers (first Gen for that) and put in the work force permanently. We were alone most of the time figuring out the world, solving our problems, and raising ourselves. We don’t have time for everybody else’s bullshit. We survived and made our own way and have no patience for whining and demanding that’s overtaking our world right now. We honestly feel as though we have no value to anyone. We’ve gone from listening to Boomers to listening to millennials. I don’t think anyone would like it if we started taking over because we’d put your house key on a chain around your neck and tell you to deal with it.
Think big about our future he says.....like what guy? A house I own? A non broke government? How about we start with hiking trails you don't have to pay to park at?
Wow someone else knows this movie fom the 70s! Michel York and Farrah Fawcett. Another relevant 70s movies is Soylent Green about overpopulated NYC with not enough to eat. Charlton Heston, Chuck Conners & Edward G Robinson.
Yes I forgot this movie that may come true...Running Man. Arnold S, Richard Dawson and Jesse Ventura as Capt Freedom. We may also be heading for Mad Max. Mel Gibson.
Beind a little kid in 50s was great. Lots of optimism, lots of neighbor kids in the new housing tracts, everybody was poor but we had houses, great pyblic education, lots of cheap gas so we poor kids got lots of vacations in new national parks, uncrowded highways. Parents kept getting better jobs. People were getting funded retirements. We had IGY, science was funded, smart poor kids got all kinds of special programs. Heck, everybody was still poor, it was not a stigma, so WE kids didnt know we were poor. We got great educations.
Why can’t we have people as informed and familiar with the mechanics of finance as Neil Howe for appointees to the Fed Reserve? Apparently the appointees have their tickets punched for them. That is a shame, if that is the case.
I always hear this argument. There has been technological advances throughout time just not the same ones we see today. The difference in monetary policy means that people actually saw that deflation and benefited from it in the 1800s where we don’t today
A lot of people I see are getting worked up over his inflation discussion. However if you listen to Lyn Alden's theory about this decade being like the 1940s, she'll explain it a lot more technically sound than Neil.
I feel like the statement he made about helping the debtors actually helps the top more than the bottom because the bottom doesn't have the credit and all the debt is concentrated at places like Blackrock
wage inequality started with brenton woods--i think he missed something in there--the answer is not more Fed Reserve as that is the problem. good Interview
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
He argues inflation is an economic equalizer , but thats only for those with a certain financial profile of being in debt to creditors. For the rest, The wages won’t rise fast enough to keep up with rising cost of needs.
Maybe directly. But indirectly, debt creates new small businesses, which create new products, which creates new competition, which creates higher wages. So indirectly equalizes wealth as well.
@@robyhartland852 That is the myth perpetuated to enable the endless black hole of government spending. People create new small businesses, not debt. For a small business, debt is just another bill to pay.
@@robyhartland852 I think that idea has pretty much been debunked because the middle class in America has been steadily shrinking with each “bust” cycle. Big money has first access to the bailouts and easy credit while the middle class is left to austerity and the perverse result is that as all the malinvestment creates huge bubbles it inevitably leads to larger and larger collapses and with each cycle the middle class gets wiped out and greater and greater percentages of the wealth flow to the largest banks, large cap stocks and hedge funds that reap the benefits of artificially low interest rates and Fed bailouts while the middle class is wiped out and their market share is absorbed by corporate interests.
You bet your ass if I try and get a loan I won’t have a .25% interest rate and if my company goes under I won’t get a bailout. It’s the opposite of a free market it’s corporatism and at its heart is the boom bust cycle created by artificially low interest rates (near zero or even negative) on government debt and collateral, which creates an environment that favors political insiders with access to all the benefits of governmental largesse and bailouts, and the malivestment and inefficient allocation of capital brought about by this cheap credit has become so bad I believe it is systemic and it will ultimately unwind in a GREATER DEPRESSION wiping out much of the remnants of the middle class and also much of the corporate world including many of the most exposed hedge funds.
End the Fed and bring back sound money that is determined in the marketplace (not by corrupt governments) so that markets can function fairly and freely once again and these dramatic boom and bust cycles will become less severe and will be contained to certain sectors of the economy instead of being systemic! Only then will opportunity come back and the economy and middle class will be healed.
Unfortunately it will take severe deflationary collapse before any real change comes to the central bank, fractional reserve lending system that has essentially financialized the whole economy and this fact is seen in that valuations in the stock market have become so malinvested and stretched beyond all rationality (because of this flood of newly created cash and huge amounts of leverage) that corporations like Apple are trading 300x their actual year to date earnings.
That ^^ is malinvestment created by over 300 trillion (Counting debt derivatives in the shadow banking system that number could be much higher as much as 900 trillion dollars) in private, corporate and governmental debt, a bailout/insider trading culture and suppressed interest rates!
Think of how overvalued all the large indexes are and how much debt all the nations of the world have accumulated in just a few years. And interest rates on the short end of bonds are zero or negative? With inflation raging at 5.5% even by government metrics such as the CPI? The interest rate should be 6% minimum on the short end in a free market. But central banks buy up all the bonds to keep those rates down with central bank notes.
We no longer have free markets people need to understand this. That is why the middle class has been shrinking since the first major collapse post 2000.
It all really began when the dollar lost its status as the singular gold standard currency in my opinion. But that is a whole other topic and personally I have begun to believe that what money is should be determined by the marketplace and never by government, because governments inevitably corrupt money through fraud so that they can finance huge spending deficits in order to wage wars and this also allows governments to grow far larger than they ever could if they had to actually tax the populace directly for everything they wanted to spend.
That’s also another reason for a flat tax, or an equal tax rate for every citizen, because it actually makes government more politically accountable for their waste as they can’t play politics with the tax rate and cater to one group over another. A flat tax also usually leads to a lower tax rate overall and less governmental spending.
Exactly. Debtors whose debt was used to purchase assets
also assets that the middle class buy with debt may be apreciating in nominal but will depreciate in real terms.
5:09 "Fiscal policy will be unable to neutralize" this is a powerful statement and it is true. They have exhausted all of their options and nature will take its course. As my mother used to say "there is a high eventual cost to easy solutions" and this country has been living on easy solutions for a long time.
You nailed it.
1656302716467.png
532 kb pngtap on a clip to paste it in the text box.1656302716467.png
532 kb pngtouch and hold a clip to pin it. unpinned clips will be deleted after 1 hour.touch and hold a clip to pin it. unp"6_4inned clips will be deleted after 1 hour.yv 556 ,tt t🐶😊🦘🦘🥑🥶,ew,sg,sF4_"2&
So true. Their decisions flag that the Fed is either ignorant or arrogant, maybe both.
There's no way we'll get off this debt bubble that easy. We have to go through the deflationary depression to morally change the fabric of society.
Blockade the cities. Don't let them out.
Imagine a Millennial standing in a soup lineup.
@@pyroboobysmith359
Could be like post 1989 Japan and no line soup happened .
Anyway i doubt parents of millennials ( the boomers / gen x ? ) would let them down ?
I dont not think the generations we speak off in the 1890/1900 were as rich as those of today ….
@@sivi9741 Yes, but that generation could own a home and keep it. Now there’s so many taxes, expenses, insurance, and burdens to kill ownership so you constantly work for paying bills. Millenials will own almost nothing, not even the phone on their pocket.
@@pyroboobysmith359 😲 Where have YOU been! ? I've seen millennials at the soup kitchen!
I don't see how taking away from savers and giving to borrowers helps Main Street. Inflation is nothing more than a stealth tax.
Agree with most of what Neil is saying, but he’s wrong on inflation helping the middle class. Inflation helps those who have assets not the average wage slave.
Eh i think the point hes making is as long as inflation isnt insane the rise in standard of living due to inflation would still outweigh the inflation for most people
@@retvrn777 How exactly does you standard of living rise when the price of bare essentials (food, petrol, gas& elec) is going through the roof due to not only inflation but also climate change hoax taxes designed to turn the populous into serfs?
@@danielmccarthy3095 Don’t forget rise in real estate/rent and loss of power in pensions/fixed income. The poor are becoming poorer, the rich are using this printed funny money to buy up assets like never before.
The point he's making is that inflation = bad for creditors, good for debtors. Most middle class people are heavily in debt (this obviously excludes some of the poorest Americans, who may never had access to credit). School debt, car debt, credit card debt, etc. Once inflation surpasses debt interest rates -- people's incomes increases will quickly surpasses compounding interest, making debt easier to pay down.
@@iraqiimmigrant2908 In the long term inflation might be okay but they'll use the pandemic(bioweapon) to justify the inflation. They just can't stand to level with honestly.
"Takes away from creditors and gives to debtors", seems to me that creditors in this context are people who work for a fixed wage or have savings denominated in dollars, and debtors are wild speculators of price appreciation and decadent spenders. I am not so sure I see the upside to all of that.
There is no upside to it.
I am neither.
There is never an upside for the average man.
@@lancobear8894 Never! has inflation been a benefit for the average person and wages for them never keep pace with it.
He sounds like the FED inflation is good, paying more is good, a lot of silly BS talk. HE thinks this helps with inequality?
@14:50 a more plausible explanation for the gains and improvements seen in the 40, 50 and 60 is during that time, we had relatively sound money as in a gold standard. Contrary to what was claimed, inflation accelerates wealth inequality as the recipients of new money benefit disproportionately from the poor who earn it after inflation. This phenomenon was noted by economists in the 1700s and again with the accelerating wealth inequality today.
It is wonderful to have such an insightful person still here with us to share his ideas. I have followed Howe since the late 90s and found his theory to be spot on! While I don’t have an opinion on inflation I do wonder if we can maintain our country socially or even from outside threats (adversaries). Virtually all 4th turnings involve conflict. Think about the last three (out of the six identified in the book): WWII, Civil War and Revolution. Will we dodge that bullet this time around? I’m not so sure we will. Inflation may be the least of our problems!
The ability to see the use of Capital as the illusion that it has become, is a first step.....
Adam,, love your interviewing style. You are fantastic and get along so well with all your guests and treat them all with respect. Thanks for the great shows!
Very interesting discussion. Adam is one of the finest interviewers out there!
That's extremely kind of you to say, John. Not sure if it's deserved, but many thanks for it!!
I would really like it if privacy was valued by the younger generations. Gen X remembers privacy, but millennials don't seem to care much about it.
My Zoomer children seem to react to the Millennial's. They like YT and watching content. None are interested in social media otherwise. The are very private in that sense. It's cycle not a straight line.
The only way to regain a sense of privacy again is to either isolate yourself from the panopticon or dismantle the techno-industrial system. Choose wisely.
Gen X and Zoomers have a lot in common. Neither understand skinny jeans nor instagram
Gen x and millenials need to value freedom more, we shouldnt give anyone the power to spy on us
@@retvrn777 Freedom has been conflated with greed and corruption. Because tyrants will always survive free times.
I think their is a flaw in his perception that inflation is a solution for inequality of wealth. Rich people don't invest in treasuries. The Fed does. Rich buy farmland and commodities right now. They will sell the public what they need to survive and get even richer.
Exactly......what garbage. Only one way to fix this.
Not necessarily. Expecting inflation eventually (even if there is deflation first). Older people people are the savers so will lose wealth. Younger people with mortgages/debt will see it inflated away. That's wealth transfer. Not saying I like the debt mentality, just that that's the way it is.
@@Ruth-wu3vf Nonsense. There has been plenty of inflation so far and wages have not kept up. the generation that is working through hyper inflation will essentially do so for little to no reward. Never has inflation benefited the working class.... Ever.
Enjoy starvation
@@pistilliproductions2930 Absolutely right! My father, who was born in 1913, used to tell about his childhood in Germany during hyperinflation. They ate sawdust bread. At first the sawdust was used to dust the pans. But as conditions got worse they mixed sawdust into the flour to stretch it. When my grandfather got paid, one kid would leave school and go spend every last Mark on whatever was available because the money became worthless the next day. I’m so sorry I lost it over time, but I used to have a billion Mark note from that era.
This isn’t going to go well.
@@pistilliproductions2930 We are not in hyperinflation. All I'm saying is from what I remember of the 1970s anyone with debt (usually younger people) saw it inflated away, whereas older people (who disliked debt) found their savings decimated. Inflation was much higher than it is now. I prefer a lower debt non-inflationary environment myself. The reality is many small business employers cannot afford to pay higher wages.
Fantastic work Adam. You are being an excellent leader in this time where we need them the most. Thanks for all your efforts
Great interview, thank you. Neil Howe and William Strauss work is remarkable and beneficial. In terms of the Kondratieff Wave and the 18.6 year real estate cycle, if history does continue to repeat our research shows that after 2026 is when US land prices will start their downward trend, then the rest of the investment markets are likely to collapse from around 2027, for at least 4 years. It's like multiple cycles peak or topping at the same time, and then collapsing at the same time. Thank you again.
GenX has been slow to advance in corporate leadership because the boomers refuse to retire!!! The only way GenX has a chance is to leave the big corporations and move to smaller startups.
YES 🙌
Why do you think they won’t retire?
The politicians aren’t going to retire until after their funeral.
I was ready to retire YESTERDAY! What’s their hold up?! They can’t take the money with them.
@@jessicamai7783 I think it's a mix of power and more money. The boomers at the top of large companies are pretty much selfish, which is pretty characteristic of the generation. Take take take and never give anything. They are the cicadas of the business world. Of course this is a generalization, but fairly consistent behavior. They invented scorched earth policies. They grew up hardened and angry coming out of WWII, which was the origin of their "every man for himself" attitude. Nasty in business and will stab you in the back while smiling to your face. The ancient politicians are the epitome of this behavior.
Such entitlement.
Work for what you want.
Boomers don't retire because they have no competitent successors. This is on you.
@@jimmichels7844 Sorry if I gave you the impression I was entitled. I've done ok by myself and can't really complain. My comment is just a generalized view on the topic..GenXers have a lot of experience and when they're looking at boomers in their early 70's not moving into retirement, I think there's an argument the boomers won't leave and have stayed past their welcome.
There are a lot of crusty old boomers not willing to let go...perhaps I hit a nerve?
I would generally agree the millennials are more entitled than other generations. Many I've hired think they're ready to sit in the C-suite right out of school with zero practical experience.
This is one of the best versions of the 4th turning talks you have done. Nice the evidence is so clear now. Five, six years ago it was not as clear. Crisis seemed averted, but here we are now, crisis returns to something even worse. Thanks for getting us prepared so long ago.
How have you prepared?
It is difficult to see the positive in inflation, when it eats away the value of your pension. The kids of rich boomers will be rich by inheritance, the unequal distribution of wealth is less a generational problem than an individual problem. Trying to pitch the young against the old is just a divide and conquer game of the billionaires.
Dont underestimate the Boomer's ability to not leave anything to their offspring.
the most malevolent boomer cannot plan to spend the last dime before the day of his death. Where i live heirs are entiteled to half of the heritage, irrespective of any tetament. Even if the relationship between parents and kids is really bad, the kids will get something, and this is in my opinion a personal thing and not a group thing.@@gauloise6442
Adam, you are an excellent interviewer (in general). Thank you!
This is the best show out there! Thanks!
I completely disagree with the idea that the price of anything going up by crazy amounts is great......its great for the top 1% but it's a huge tax and burden on the rest of usmiddle class or what's left of the middle class . These huge wage I creases he's talking about don't even cover 1/4 of the cost increases we have to pay now because of inflation . 100k a year job does not get you the same quality of life like it did right before the scamdemic. Food , housing , cars all the largest portions of our spending has gone up 15% or more in the past year and wages going up 3,4% don't cover it . Inflation is a tax on the middle class prepare yourselves for whats about to happen
How is hyperinflation great for the 1%? Its bad for everybody who was a saver and good for everybody who is in debt.
The answer is to get rid of the central-banking system and replace it with honest money - gold and silver (and, perhaps, a true cryptocurrency).
I believe his point is simply that as long as the standard of living increases faster than inflation its still a net benefit ecspecially for the middle class, i dont think you realize how far we are living beyond our means rn, we produce nothing as a country, at best we come outta this looking like japan at worst mexico
@@retvrn777 The standard of living in the USA has been declining since 2001.
Thanks so much Adam! You're a great host!
This is a turning point in our history. And one we have to navigate slowly. Rather than being in a hurry. Which would only add to the catastrophe.
"There will be growth in the Spring" - C. Gardner
"buy call of the crocodile" - F. Gardner
listen to this man carefully between 10-12min! Such a miracle man
We should all thank mr. Powel and Our fantastic politicians for all this “ wonderful inflation” 🤡🥸🤣
Insanity lol
"everything is fine..." 🤣
What about inflations destructivness on savers? I would like to know his response
High progressive income and inheritance tax rates in the post-WW II years were the chief tool of financial repression that limited US wealth inequality and paid down wartime debt -- not inflation; throughout the late Forties, Fifties, and into the mid-Sixties, the US was on a gold standard until the Guns and Butter policies of the 1960s forced the country (in 1971) into the full fiat "petro-dollar" era still operating today.
LeLocle Vietnam was such a uneducated blunder, made with ignorant fear. Vietnam was a FRIEND during ww2, then we and the French STABED them in the BACK! 😡
How about bail ins and currency reform ?
Officials are lying all day long
Regarding Neil's comment that we can inflate our way out of this mess... point made BUT due to the fact that we're FAR deeper in debt than any prior generation of Americans (or any nation since the rise of civilization) the risk of hyperinflation is far greater than at any time in the past and that will create social disruption on a scale we've never seen in our nation. Look to the Weimar republic to learn what resulted from hyperinflation there.
Good interview! Very interesting, but I think wealthy individuals, will fair much better in high inflation then the middle class, and poor. Fuel prices, and rent will just about wipe out the poor. Look what's happening in California, and I believe it's going to get much worse.
Did the poor fare well in the Weimar Republic during hyperinflation? Only the people with gold. Do the poor fare well in Venezuela and Cuba with high inflation ? Nope
Absolutely agree. What’s going to happen to all the renters in California when they get too old to work and don’t have a retirement account to subsidize their small social security check? If you think the homeless problem is bad now, just wait.
Agree
@@ld4122 They won't retire. This is one of the reasons none of the younger generations, including GenX, are moving up.
That's a prediction that probably has no basis and based only on a subjective "feeling"...
That the national economy in 2 1/2 years will suffer a moment of inflation followed by a long term downturn.
I am seeing us going back into history--the 1890's big business and destruction of small businesses, the stock market being fed by the FED reminds me of the gilded age and the separation of the red and blue states can devolve into a Civil War. Will these issues be discussed in your next book, Neil. I would love to hear your ideas about what I am seeing.
A case of whistling past the graveyard.
The Fourth Turning is amazing, and Mr. Howe is a pioneer in generational theory.
Great interview.
I was intrigued by the interview, but noticed one inconsistency when predetermined events are mentioned.
It is odd that someone who based their life's work on generational cycles at regular intervals doesn't believe everything is predetermined.
Most intelligent comment on this thread. Young gen-xers/millennials + were sacrificed for the older generations. We'll be cleaning up their crap for the rest of our lives.
inflation makes saving impossible. it damns you to a lifetime of servitude
During the depression, middle class debtors were no longer able to make their payments for business or farm loans. Consequently, their bankers seized the assets, the farms or commercial property. Poor were jobless as well and went hungry. Just like today, an over expansion of cheap credit can ruin debtors when jobs are lost and cars and homes are repossessed.
Interest rates can't rise as much as they went down in the last 40 years. Not even 10% as much, else the debt time bomb explodes and brings down all financial markets with it.
I like Mike's assessment. Wrt the 4th turning, look on the bright side. If the 2008 crash led to a decade (2010s) similar to the 1930s (80 years ago) then we have been through half the winter already. But, if the 2020s mirrors the 1940s then we are in a war of sorts (with China challenging USA etc), but curiously the unity you would normally expect to 'fight back' doesn't seem to be there. I can't see any alternative to more inflation eventually because I don't think they can raise interest rates, just like 80 years ago. That means any govt response, has to be fiscal but the money has to be spent wisely on directly productive activity, not welfare.
Ruth,
I can see a black swan event. China invade Taiwan for the power of chips making, the necessity for the supremacy of China. I cannot predict the reaction of United States.
@@Kukaboora Neither can I, but the US is taking steps to onshore chip making. The plants are expensive to set up. I hope Taiwan and Japan are safe, but also at risk are countries surrounding the South China Sea; this is the second largest naval trade route world-wide (possibly the largest now) and has resources; that's why China wants control of it.
The unity will be there. It will emerge quickly once American understand the threat.
Interesting interview, Adam, but I wish you had spent more time asking Neil to give his forecast of changes in the financial markets over the next few years. Are we heading for a deflationary financial collapse (1929-1932 style) or something else? Perhaps Neil isn't the right guy for that question, but his response would have been quite interesting. I agree with others commenting earlier that "inflationism" (orchestrated by the US Government, the Federal Reserve, & the TBTF Commercial Banks) has been very destructive to our nation - and only benefits the richest 1% at the expense of the lower and middle classes. It needs to end.
I was worried when he mentioned war and very encouraged by his ultimately optimistic expectations even with the promised agitations of the next few years.
The other turnings did not end so well so why should this one be different?
Is Argentina back? I haven't seen that one yet. Thought only the financial district is prosperous and funtional and the remainder of society travels for money, barters and rations. I'd love to see updated documentaries if anyone can pass them on!
He's really got some unbelievable blind spots.
100%. Taking no account of demographic change and the war being waged against the middle class, working class and white people. He sounds like a Hoover institution speaker..
There is no spring coming guys
Agreed. He's pretty off IMO
@@niciassmith1204
How is the attack made on middle class and by who ?
Which side of politic spectrum ?
Hint: lowest tax since ww2 for corporations and the rich …..
Check the numbers how high it was.
That period , they didn’t even have a FED put , today’s the market have a FED put and it’s free on top of it ( lowest tax toward society in 60 years while bailing them out with debts and inflation) .
We forget culture changes. We r not in the 1970s more like Rome. When societies degenerates in all good social aspect that it collapses.
An assumption appears to be that all destruction is 'creative'. It would seem to me that some distruction is a slide towards, and into, the abyss.
This guy makes me love demography. It's hilarious. He's my favorite demographer cos he's the only one I know, but I Always Click Everything Howe.
I have listened to thousands of podcasts and this is the first one that I have heard Inflation being a good thing or Equalizer - I have read his book but his view on inflation a little strange - We all know our debt situation world wide with derivatives never before seen at this level - Just don't see how this ends well - God help us if the Kings decide to go to War
I question Howe’s cycles (turnings). He starts the narrative more or less with the American Revolution (yeah, he mentioned the Glorious Revolution in passing), then the Civil War, them WW2, and then now as crisis points. What happened to WW1? Possibly nothing changed the world as much as WW1, but he never mentions it. The Vietnam War upended America in ways that we’re still dealing with. He says that 9/11 had no lasting effect. What? The Patriot Act and the ensuing diminishment of freedoms is “no lasting effect”? i think he cherry picks historical pivot points to fit his story. Also, America is not the whole world. Russia and China have had completely different crisis timelines. How does that all play into the “turnings” paradigm? Never mentioned.
Exactly! Only those losers are in total control and will not give up their corrupt grip easily. Lest we never forget, many wars were fought/contrived for them THEM to get there..💪😡
I love this channel and this was probably the best interview I've watched. Ive never heard of this theory but I'll definitely be looking into this more. Wow, great stuff.
Oh good, I've been waiting for this one.
It’s interesting to hear his newer points of his book and perspectives. I think people use his book ( or just the title) to doom and gloom of revolutions.
I wonder what Neil thinks of the surveillance coins by Central banks. It seems Neil is more optimistic in person which is a relief.
My kids also will be their 20’s in the 2030’s so it’s another relief. We all need hope.
2022, the year of jubilee = the Great Reset = the Great Tribulation = the terrorism + the famine ( stock crash)+ the vaccine death ( the Revelation 6)?
When you drink to excess there is a hangover. This nation has pushed near everything to excess so what kind of hangover could that be? I hate to be so gloomy but it is the way of the world and repeated though human history.
Hoping rhymes with doping, same outcome.
He seems slightly out of touch with reality...
I think he's a paid fed promoter.
Great video. Neil was a great guest. Thanks.
If we know there are 25 year micro cycles and 100 year meso cycles could there be a 400 macro cycle? 400 seems to be maximum an empire lasts before it fundamentally changes into something different
Very interesting points, the world is now a very competitive place and the US won’t be “coming back” that’s my only point of contention.
I think its wild to go threw all that history, Finance, inflation and not speak one time about hard money and what happened when we went on a full fiat standard.
*through
Of the last three fourth turnings one had economical disaster with a foreign war the other two had fighting on American soil with city's under artillery fire.
Amazing interview 👏 👌 🙌 👍
I liked him until 15:16. Why is the financial welfare of "minorities" more worthy than the relative financial welfare of Whites?
What I miss in this video is the present demographic situation which is different from the last forth turning.
What Mr. Howe doesn't consider is that in 1945 the US had 23,000 metric tons of gold - 1/4th of the gold held by ALL the world's central banks. I can't see them getting away with creating enough "money" to buy up all the bonds institutions will be dumping today. Also, while inflation reduces the real value of debt it also causes wage gains to lag price increases. It's not the working stiffs who will do well, it's the holders of real assets, like real estate, stocks of oil & gas producers, gold & silver, etc.
You get to sacrifice just like your grandpappy. All so the elite don't get to bite the bullet. And people still believe Covid "accidently" leaked from a lab. LOL
Yea inflation is great when you don't produce anything but dollars... He's smoking that good stuff.
We need him to come back.
any comments on the Morgan Stanley buyout of E-trade? Thanks
Yea can we lose the 75- 83 year old politicians?
TERM LIMITS
15:00-yes about the 50s and 60s being pretty good, but inflation only took off at the very end of those good times, and was a big part of why the 70s were so difficult. Inflation was part of what killed the good times
The difference this time is a world that is too people-y, an elite that knows it, and who has unimaginable technology for control.
Demographics. The largest generation has or is entering retirement and this group is on a fixed income. Inflation is in no way helping anyone already on a fixed income and experiencing the largest medical bills of their life.
On the benign side of Inflation, Mr. Howe is right, however, this time there are a couple of differences that could deny that "inflate the debt away" classical cop-out. First, free flow of Capital. It was easy to corral Capital in the 1940's, at some point, Roosevelt got away with forbiding the possession of Gold, but that's not going to fly in the era of offshore accounting and free circulation of Capital . And the other thing, Crypto. So, i'm not sure if Creditors are going to just lay down in the fetal position and take it, like before. "Brave New World " is still the most likely scenario, with Social Media playing the role of Soma, but there's still a chance it won't be as bad as that.
This is the best channel out there always an interesting guest with new ideas! To help us with these trying times
After this perfect storm is that when they strait a war.?
What a great episode I took a lot from this thank you
It is people, who make the system work - not history. It boils down to having a functioning moral compass to hold things together. Societies, throughout history, who went the way of greed, self-serving interests , "me first" and "as long as I have mine, to hell with everyone else" attitudes will bring the entire system down, to its knees. No matter what the powers that be attempt in their efforts to hold things together, unless a good, moral compass is paramount within people's lives, Society will fall apart.
Step one to shatter and cleanse the establishment and society at large: END THE FED!!!
You can only do that through force.
I think what happens in each generation relies on economics. I hope you address this issue in your next book. The greatest generation were financially rewarded for fighting WWII and the country was manufacturing during the Great Depression and the baby boomers benefitted financially from this. However the younger generations were not financially so rewarded!
It is interesting how 4T thinking resonates with Peter Turchin's Structural Demographic Theory.
Speaking as an older Gen-Xer, the reason we are behind in everything including politics, is because we’ve been ignored since day one. Our mothers were taken out of the home in large numbers (first Gen for that) and put in the work force permanently. We were alone most of the time figuring out the world, solving our problems, and raising ourselves. We don’t have time for everybody else’s bullshit. We survived and made our own way and have no patience for whining and demanding that’s overtaking our world right now. We honestly feel as though we have no value to anyone. We’ve gone from listening to Boomers to listening to millennials. I don’t think anyone would like it if we started taking over because we’d put your house key on a chain around your neck and tell you to deal with it.
I feel like GenX has dealt with the BS of two entitled generations and just want to be left alone in their private oasis of sanity.
How about price controls on gasoline?
Is this an infomercial for Wealthion?
Think big about our future he says.....like what guy? A house I own? A non broke government? How about we start with hiking trails you don't have to pay to park at?
I think we missed the War or Revolution part coming
This guy makes me feel like a 30 year old in Logan's Run that he is trying to persuade to enter Carousel.
Wow someone else knows this movie fom the 70s! Michel York and Farrah Fawcett.
Another relevant 70s movies is Soylent Green about overpopulated NYC with not enough to eat. Charlton Heston, Chuck Conners & Edward G Robinson.
we got a runner....
Yes I forgot this movie that may come true...Running Man. Arnold S, Richard Dawson and Jesse Ventura as Capt Freedom.
We may also be heading for Mad Max. Mel Gibson.
I wonder if Neil's scheme relates to markets, also? Are we coming out of the 4th Turning in the precious metals and resources? Hmmmm...
Something BIG is gonna BREAK!
Useful theory but I think his personal observations are filtered through a liberal bias, much like everything else
Beind a little kid in 50s was great. Lots of optimism, lots of neighbor kids in the new housing tracts, everybody was poor but we had houses, great pyblic education, lots of cheap gas so we poor kids got lots of vacations in new national parks, uncrowded highways. Parents kept getting better jobs. People were getting funded retirements. We had IGY, science was funded, smart poor kids got all kinds of special programs. Heck, everybody was still poor, it was not a stigma, so WE kids didnt know we were poor. We got great educations.
Theories, theories, and more theories. We'll see how it goes. I don't know of anyone with a working crystal ball.
Howe is an extremely terrifying individual. His views on monetary policy are insane.
And the outcome if wage hikes do not eventuate in an inflationary era?
There is a severe shortage of people who want to work.
Why can’t we have people as informed and familiar with the mechanics of finance as Neil Howe for appointees to the Fed Reserve? Apparently the appointees have their tickets punched for them. That is a shame, if that is the case.
Don't hear an assessment of continuing technical automation and improvement - inherently deflationary?
I always hear this argument. There has been technological advances throughout time just not the same ones we see today. The difference in monetary policy means that people actually saw that deflation and benefited from it in the 1800s where we don’t today
Thanks
A lot of people I see are getting worked up over his inflation discussion. However if you listen to Lyn Alden's theory about this decade being like the 1940s, she'll explain it a lot more technically sound than Neil.
And if you listen to Peter Schiff you will know what is really going on. Lyn is soft selling what is coming at us.
Fascinating.
great, thank you.
reduce risk? so crazyass out of the money TESLA call options all round?? YOLO.........,
Shaggy has aged well!
I feel like the statement he made about helping the debtors actually helps the top more than the bottom because the bottom doesn't have the credit and all the debt is concentrated at places like Blackrock
wage inequality started with brenton woods--i think he missed something in there--the answer is not more Fed Reserve as that is the problem. good Interview
Inflation is good to wipe out the debt....Sounds good on the surface!
In 1928 everyone presented put your money in the stock market, you'll make money then black Friday crash. Sounds familiar!