The Biggest LIE in Dynasty Fantasy Football (4 Ways to Win More)
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- Опубликовано: 16 июн 2024
- Let's take a break from player takes and get into some good old-fashioned dynasty strategy.
Follow Adeiko on Twitter: x.com/Adeiko_FF
"Don't Let Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good" - jakobsanderson.substack.com/p...
Twitter: / paulpattersonff
Dynasty Podcast: tinyurl.com/potentialpod
0:00 - Intro
0:18 - Winning Is the Goal
1:03 - Window-Based Approach
2:31 - The Lie
3:59 - The Ocean's Eleven of Fantasy Teams
5:35 - Win Probability From Real Leagues
7:30 - Only Rebuild If You Have To
8:00 - Stop Going "All In"
8:28 - Advantage of Bye Weeks
9:00 - Make the Playoffs
9:28 - Outro 
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What dynasty strategy topics should I cover in the future?
I thought based on the thumbnail that you were going to say something about over or undervaluing picks. I think a video about how picks are better used as currency is a good idea. People have it in their mind that rookie picks mean a guaranteed productive asset when in reality, it only means a VALUABLE asset until that player either produces or goes down in value.
I’ve seen multiple people go into a season expecting to get WR1-2 production from guys like JSN, QJ, Nabers, Rome, MHJ, etc. But that just isn’t realistic. Until the last five years, it was unheard of for a rookie receiver to be a fantasy WR1-2 because the third year breakout was well-known. Now it’s like we expect them to produce immediately, and if they don’t, we write them off like QJ. The same can be said about QB’s and expecting early production like Stroud but writing guys off like Young because of one bad season
@@brendonbuffaloe8830 I really like that idea. I’ll have to file it away.
Honestly one of the most insightful dynasty videos I’ve seen in a long time. Keep going man, well done
Thank you 🫡
I feel this. I had undefeated team, first place by a mile. Eliminated in second round to a flacco stack. I had Allen/stafford cmc/etienne tyreek/chase/dhop and kelce
You hate to see it
Really enjoyed this video. You did a great job of taking a valuable set of data and drawing some very cogent and compelling points from it. Would love to see more strategy vids at any scale. Subbed!
Thank you 🫡
this is the best dynasty advice ive seen on youtube. nice work
Thanks a lot!
I can relate to this one. Undefeated last year, outscored closest team by over 500 pts, lost in the 1st round. Lost Herbert, Allen, Tyreek. Then would have won every remaining playoff games by 100 plus.
You hate to see it
@@PurePotentialFF I had a similar redraft super team that outscored the next closest team by over 300 points in a ESPN standard PPR league, and yet I barely made playoffs (I needed 3 different results to go my way in the last week). I did make it to the finals and put up a crazy high score (I think it was 180) but the other team had their highest game of the season that week. On the flipside I had a 6th seed dynasty team win it all, while the super team in that league lost in the Semifinals.
I was second going into playoffs in one league with the most points scored...lost in the first round and would've won out
@@Mattshuckphoto I've learned this lesson... you just need to make it to the playoffs.
My strategy for dynasty: Construct my team to contend for the next 2+ seasons. Never be rebuilding, always be reloading.
Prioritize proven consistent reliable production at starting WR and QB, (where you can 'set and forget' players like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Kirk Cousins, and get consistent production for several years)
Prioritize volume and depth at starting RB. (More opportunities = better. More opportunities from more RBs = best)
Try to score 10 pts per week from the TE slot. (How you do it isn't important. But if you can average 10 pts per week, you will be doing better than most of your leaguemates)
Prioritize youth, talent, and potential upside for bench players.
And draft rookies based on what my team is most likely going to need 1-2 years in the future (when my current starters might be declining).
I won two leagues at 6th and 8th seeds (14 teams on that) last year... I was very lucky.... both from the last playoff seed...
Congrats! It's never over till it's over.
A 14 team league where 8 teams make the playoffs?
Kinda defeats the challenge of a 14 team league if you can have a losing record and still make the playoffs imo.
But congrats though.
Hey man
I’m new to your stuff
I follow fantasy stock exchange and dynasty domain in the fantasy flock grouping.
And you’re one of the first guys I’ve seen that puts out thought provoking interesting content that I’ve seen besides them.
Really appreciate you and hope the best for you. You got a subscribe from me and I’ll get a couple dozen more coming your way.
Excellent work.
Dude, thank you so much! I really appreciate the support and kind words!
His content is so good and unique. This video is extremely informative. With data to support his claims, and funny references thrown in. S tier video and channel
Good takeaways! One of our guys boosted himself into playoffs and won as the 5th seed beat the superstar team last year thanks to Joe Flacco feeding Njoku and Breece Hall going Nuclear lol
This was great info! You should definitely make more videos!
Thank you! I definitely will, so stay tuned!
I like this guy's information and delivery. I agree about getting a buy to increase your chances the most. I also agree with never going "all-in". My approach is to always try to win and at the same time stay young to build for the future, even if that means being in the middle of the standings, which most will tell you to be either really good or really bad. I agree with that if my team is old, but if you're trying to win and stay young, that changes the approach IMO. Sure, if you're a middle of the pack team and old, sell off those old assets to get younger and at the same time it will make your draft picks higher, but at the end of the day I always want to win and stay young
Glad you enjoyed!
We have a transaction fee of $2 per add/drop that goes to the highest point scorer at the end of the regular season. So the best team is rewarded. Totals usually hit $350-$500. The transaction fee winner has won the chip less than 30% I would say since we started in the early 2000 teens. Lol
To add to your point: in the first three seasons of my dynasty superflex league, I have made it to the championship all three years and won it once. The first two years my team went .500 in the regular season and snuck in as the 6th seed.
Refreshing, even-handed, and well-communicated. Well done.
Thank you 🫡
Absolute truth. In a 3WR, 2 Flex redraft Work league last year. I fleeced my way into having J.Hurts, CMC, Jacob’s, Ekeler, Chase, Diggs, Aiyuk, D.Smith, Kelce and hockenson.
Smoked the league in points scored and even had the least amount of points against in the league, but I lost 1st round to a damn worker when he had Bijan go for negative points and a Ty Chandler going off.
Injuries played a bad factor here for me as well.
This goes to show you, fantasy football sucks and that’s why I love it
We play a cruel and unforgiving game
I would like to see the strategy of trading older players that helped you win before the second half of the season due to injury risk increasing.
Over 3 years I’m 36-6 and dominate weekly. I have 0 championships to my name. Always finish 2nd. On some randomness.
You hate to see it :/
Love the Oceans Eleven reference, might be a new team name 😂
I won my league last year with no depth. I had breece, Jefferson, Chase and lamb. Had no picks until 27. Traded away Breece for Monty, rhamondre, and zamir white and a late first. Traded away lamb for odunze, Coleman and the almost assured 1.01 next year. Still have top 2 dynasty receivers plus depth and a top pick next year. Feeling good about not hoarding my elite guys and actually having draft capital plus depth for next season.
Yeah, it's tough to balance the impact of true studs vs the importance of depth. Might need a video on that...
I’ve been spending my time in this league slowly building up the team with young depth. I guess I’m in win now, but I think I only put myself there by trading Javonte, Kyler, Tank Dell and a 2026 second for Jalen Hurts and Saquon. I think I’m more of a win for years to come team. In a 1QB league This is my current roster:
QBs: Dak and Hurts
RBs: Saquon, Gibbs, Benson, Moss, Brian Robinson, Tracy
WRs: Puka, Pittman, Tee, Flowers, Reed, BTJ, AD, McMillan, Legette, Roman, Brendan Rice, Javon Baker
TE: McBride
I think my team is dangerous. If people actually read this please give your thoughts!!! It’s a 10 team league as well.
Great content. Especially regarding the rebuilding/tank season. This should almost never happen
Thanks!
Im "All In" this year, just based on the strategies of the other members of my league. We are going into year 2 and a few guys started a "rebuild" last year (which is hilarious to me). But my idea of "all in" is to get proven pieces for some of my draft picks, while still obtaining later picks. So i traded away my 1st and 2nd round picks, but i gained 2 thirds and 2 forths which i plan on nailing and letting those guys development on my bench or taxi. So im basically top heavy and loaded up potential talent on the back end.
You can’t plan to “nail” your 3rd and 4th round picks lol. That’s arrogance at its finest bro
@brendonbuffaloe8830 in that case having confidence in any prospect is "arrogance". I'm just saying I'm going to try my best to find some solid picks later in the rookie draft is all. And it's called confidence, don't conflate the two.
@@venod3134 It’s very different with early picks. If it drafting Malik Nabers at the 1.04, I absolutely expect to “nail” that pick. I’m investing that value into what I see as a cornerstone asset. I understand what you’re saying about taking some fliers on guys late, I just thought you were saying you were gonna get starters from those picks.
Going into our 4th yr, I won the first 2 championships and finished 2nd in yr 3, still got a team that should push for at least 3 yrs I figure..... 💪
Need some advice. 10 team full ppr dynasty sf . I traded stroud for the 1.01 and breece hall . My qbs are Murray and cousins . Should I draft MHJ over Caleb ? My wrs are Jefferson , hill, London , tank dell , shaheed, Amari cooper. I have the 2.01 and 2.03. And should I move hill for this years class or next ? I want a top 5 pick for him
That’s a great trade! I’d still take Caleb at 1.01, personally.
If you can get a top 5 pick for Hill, I would take it. You probably aren’t getting that next year when he’s another year older.
New to your channel, this advice is GOOD! Pura vida from Costa Rica 🇨🇷 🤙🏽
Thank you!
As someone with a superteam how can I best take advantage of other teams deciding to rebuild in May? I have depth and star power all all positions and can realistically withstand a typical amount of injuries.
If you have tons of extra value, just try to keep upgrading your starting lineup to the best possible combination of young superstars.
And then I’d try to store the remaining value in future 1sts to ensure that window stays open.
I think the biggest threat to dynasty owners is boredom and time. We get bored during the offseason, and that’s when we make the dumb decisions.
This is definitely true
Dude love the strategy focused video!
Thanks!
In my league over the past 2 years 1 guy has won and he was the 5th and 6th seeds those years with a terrible team. That really taught me just about anyone can win these
I just subscribed. Loved this video
Thank you 🫡
What do you think of Josh Downs in dynasty? Is he worth a 2025 or 2026 2nd?
Yeah, I'd definitely send a 2 for him
Great video
Like to see some options on how leagues can setup playoffs to make less random ie 2-week playoff finals. Paying out for best record provides some insulation….
Yeah, I'm definitely on board with a payout for best record or most points. However, I do think the game needs *some* level of randomness to truly be fun.
That's kind of the problem with older stars. They might have their playtime limited when it matters most i.e. Keenan Allen last season.
Well presented! Subbed!
definitely did the opposite of this and spent 4 years to make a superstar team. Good news is now I have a superstar team and multiple 1sts/2nds in the next three years to hopefully give myself that 30% chance of winning each year for the next 10 years or so.
Hope you can secure some titles!
My league keeps 4 players each year I really like this set up
I don’t think I’ve been using poor strategy trying to build an unbeatable team because I’m doing it with players who will good for several years. Current team:
QB- Mahomes
SF- Richardson
RB- Barkley
RB- White
WR- Hill
WR- Chase
WR- St Brown
TE- Engram
Flex- Puka
Flex- London
Flex- Evans
This league does have K and D/ST, which can add randomness, but I have McPherson and the Browns, Texans, and Patriots defenses so I’m still good there
That looks like an awesome team!
The biggest mistake I see is people tanking for multiple seasons to build up a team like this.
@@PurePotentialFF I tanked last year, but this league is free, so I didn’t lose any money
this randomness is exactly why traditional head to head and playoffs are flawed in FFL...years ago we left this behind and reward yead long performance....(note we did leave traditional playoffs in as a chance for all teams to get their entry fee back...) but play season long reward teams for where they finish every week against everyone else.....
What I’m hearing is, if you’re fringe top 4-6. Go all in you have a better shot than you think
Never go all in
Try League of median best way to go nowadays for the regular season playoffs are a whole different ball game for sure
I'm a fan of the league median
@@PurePotentialFF 😃👍🏻🏈
Subbed - great stuff!!
Thanks!
The tough part about #3 is that buying players at the beginning of the season with draft capital is way harder (way more expensive) since everyone’s 0-0. Once it’s week 10 and 4-5 league mates know they’re out and already thinking about next season, you’re way more likely secure one of those point scoring asset to win now
That’s definitely true! Honestly, the best time to buy vets is early in the offseason when you can capitalize on rookie fever.
But I don’t have any issue with buying players later in the season IF you’re getting them at fair market value. The biggest mistake is overpaying for a CMC-type player at the last minute only for him to have no real impact on the outcome.
Vets are more expensive then bc they are more valuable then…
@@walterburden3725 vets are less valuable at the end of the season. It’s a common misconception because people overestimate how much one player can actually swing the outcome of a game.
@@PurePotentialFF I guess I disagree somewhat. You don’t wanna go give up 2 1sts to get CMAC but if you’re one of the better teams already and then you sacrifice a little hit more than market value to get a guy that can win you $ without mortgaging your entire future you do it. A top 3 team adding a CMAC come playoff time? I’ll sacrifice a little more than market value
@@matthewthomas970 we’ve all got different strategies. From the data I’ve seen, an add like that really only shifts your odds of winning a few % - if I have an incredibly high-value team, maybe, but otherwise I don’t want to risk shortening my contending window
Love the data backed insights
Glad to hear it!
Another way to look at that chart, the 1 seed seems to only win their first playoff match 56.71% of the time. And then if they do make it to the final they again only win about 55% of those matchups. The real edge comes from getting the bye week.
I'm a poker player and there are a lot of parallels to fantasy. The simplest one is what you've highlighted here, the best player/team doesn't just win. The best poker players don't just win every hand or somehow know how to avoid being unlucky. Instead, over a large enough sample size, if they make constantly good decisions they will come out ahead. Unfortunately for fantasy football, we can only win once per league per season, so it takes years to build up even a modest sample size.
Also, gotta pat myself on the back. Last season I had a 6th seed team and I remember telling somebody I thought I had about an 8% chance of winning. According to the chart that's dead on accurate, ha.
Nailed it!
thats fantasy man! i dont know how many times ive been in the championship and fucking got crushed lol
12 team start 12 PPR won it all last year …traded Lamb for Higgins/JSN/Pickens…thoughts?
That return is a little light for Lamb, in my opinion. You're really putting a lot of pressure on at least one of those WRs to make a huge leap into WR1 territory.
Led my league in points last year and finished 9th out of 12 teams. Anything can happen
Fantasy football is a cruel mistress
Unstoppable? 12 team. Back to back chips and 3 outta 4. Allen, hurts. Rb- bijan , Gibbs, JT, Breece hall, James cook. WR- JJ, lamb, waddle, tank and MHJ. TE- hockenson and Goedert .
Your leaguemates are buffoons. Congrats on the W’s
Good video man
Thanks a lot!
It is random to a point but I am going to say I think I have it with this one. .5ppr super flex dynasty…
QB Allen
RB CMC
RB Hall
WR JJ
WR Tyreek
WR AJ Brown
TE Andrews
Flex Taylor
Flex Gibbs
Sflex Hurts
This team is the outlier 😂
Your leaguemates should be ashamed for allowing this to happen
@@PurePotentialFF it’s crazy man I lost so many trades along the way to building this team. (Kyren Williams for Isaiah likely straight up lol)The league is actually very competitive and active. I just kept finding gems off of the waiver and packaged them up.
@@PurePotentialFF I also have some depth with Tee and aiyuk and McBride lol. I also have 10 rookies on my team including Maye.
Here's what I think I've been doing fantasy football and most of the analysts have been alive. And I think you all over analyze you take the fun out of it. Make trades and keep your team relevant. Because you can have the best team in the league for 7 years in a row and you still mad at me I ever win a championship. It only takes one loss at the wrong week. Don't overanalyze take who you like and have fun.
good content
Thanks!
That’s why you only trade your firsts for young studs
10K 🤯
My head is exploding
preppy paul !
is two of the points really, "do good in the season"? make playoffs and get a bye? Is that new dynamic information? I am so lost. Perhaps i did not listen well
Well, in the context of the entire video it’s
- prioritize making the playoffs when you can over tanking in an effort to build a “super team”
- make impact trades early in the season to help you get a bye as that does more for your win probability than acquiring studs specifically for playoff matchups
@@PurePotentialFF I can definitely agree with those 💯🔥💪🤠🦅
I disagree with some of this video. I’ve created a team so young and dominant that I’m unstoppable.
Make sure to come back here in three years to let us know how many championships you've won!
@@PurePotentialFF 2 in a row so far