I would say this guy is the godfather of the modern era of systems and information analysis. If you don't know anything about systems dynamics, you will be stumbling around until the end of your career ... ANY career ...
I really never use youtube for this kind of thing.. I really felt grateful, that I can felt to sit in a world class lecturer seiries.. Which this won't happen before the advancement of tech.. Thank you for sharing. God Bless.
the question is what are the strengths and weaknesses of those models the strengths lie in the tremendous amount of information available, the weakness arises from our inabiliy to manipulate high order non-linear dynamic systems in our heads. we often take information that is valid and produce with it results which are inconsistent with the assumptions we are making
his early history reveals he is amazingly influential on the pioneering of many aspects of computer systems and RAM memory etc, the introductory speech missed out some of this.. but it's kind of good to listen to the introduction to get a glimpse of what he means to the world and the fact he was given an award in this video
i agree.. it's very worrying that the end of the lecture is maybe lost does anyone know if anyone has a transcript/notes of what was said in the whole lecture (with the missing ending)
i think this lecture was intended by Mr Forrester to be his MASTERCLASS.. but it's so tragic that the ending cuts off does the ending exist or was it lost when recorded??? :(
Forrester, J. (1988). Lecture: The Common Foundation Underlying Physical and Social Systems; Applications of System Dynamics. MIT James R. Killian, Jr. Lecture Series.
So I'm learning about systems dynamics through these lectures and I keep asking myself , How is it that this type of thinking and modeling hasn't resulted in better models? I'm thinking of big issues like economists never seeing recessions and booms and bust cycles in a timely manner. They have not picked up resource use and predict shortages especially about petroleum and natural gas. Environmental predictions are bad, (remember we thought we'd have an ice free arctic by 2012?) political predictions bad, disease transmission etc of Covid prediction is bad. Maybe systems dynamics deludes people into thinking that they have a big picture of things when they don't. I guess it works on little things like computer questions and uncomplicated things.
Perhaps people are not using it these days for much beyond computer apps or engineering. There aren't many current books applying it to other things like social problems or organizations etc. There are other modelling techniques, so maybe SD died out in interest beyond engineering or technology with Meadows and Forrester passing, I don't know of course this is just a speculation.
The conant-ashby theorem states that a regulator is only as good as the model of regulation it contains, pretty evident. Now ask yourself, do the models we hold in our social and economic institutions adequate enough to regulate society and the economy? Of course not The biggest flaws we have at a global level are time delayed information, void based scientific analysis (which means it does not include the environment), an economic system that sections off based on companies and states for the benefit of those companies and states, and lastly a growth goal based economy. The solutions would be, respectively... -A real-time communication information system with integrated computer analysis, managing Earth's resources (look into the VenusProject) -Systems thinking integrated into science (which includes economics) -Allowing people to enable work among themselves for themselves (democratic workplaces), teaching systems science to management, and having a proper meta-language that intergrates all human firms (look into the Viable System Model) -Having a goal of homeostasis with our Earth The most important indicator for course correction is the goal we seek. If our goal is to rape and kill the environment then we are damn well succeeding. If instead it were to be in equilibrium we shall see we have strayed much too far.
Well, i would say that precise and powerful models are computing demanding. In these days, they were discoverying digital computation, and took many years of development in computation architecture and hardware, but i would say that artificial intelligence systems like alphafold 2 are a demonstration of what we will see in terms of models of the reality, what will exponentially increase as it develops.
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
I would say this guy is the godfather of the modern era of systems and information analysis. If you don't know anything about systems dynamics, you will be stumbling around until the end of your career ... ANY career ...
Damn this is true
I really never use youtube for this kind of thing.. I really felt grateful, that I can felt to sit in a world class lecturer seiries.. Which this won't happen before the advancement of tech.. Thank you for sharing. God Bless.
bless him.. that was very respectful what he did and asked for in this
If anyone knows any other videos of the gentleman speaking at the beginning let me know , love listening to this guy speak
One of my favorite talks, awesome!!
Our teacher presented this to us. Thank you for this informative video!
the question is what are the strengths and weaknesses of those models
the strengths lie in the tremendous amount of information available, the weakness arises from our inabiliy to manipulate high order non-linear dynamic systems in our heads. we often take information that is valid and produce with it results which are inconsistent with the assumptions we are making
oh please oh please i hope the full lecture is available to watch. does anyone have a link to it there is a version with the ending on it?
42:00 policy v decision
47:00 markets respond to companies
Jay Forrester takes the podium @ 4:21
thanks!
his early history reveals he is amazingly influential on the pioneering of many aspects of computer systems and RAM memory etc, the introductory speech missed out some of this.. but it's kind of good to listen to the introduction to get a glimpse of what he means to the world and the fact he was given an award in this video
Is the complete version some where? Towards the end it starts some really interesting reasoning and it gets cut :(
i agree.. it's very worrying that the end of the lecture is maybe lost
does anyone know if anyone has a transcript/notes of what was said in the whole lecture (with the missing ending)
i think this lecture was intended by Mr Forrester to be his MASTERCLASS.. but it's so tragic that the ending cuts off
does the ending exist or was it lost when recorded??? :(
35:50 multidimensional equation
wonderful
Does anyone know all the citation information for this lecture? I don't see a date anywhere...
Forrester, J. (1988). Lecture: The Common Foundation Underlying Physical and Social Systems; Applications of System Dynamics. MIT James R. Killian, Jr. Lecture Series.
When was this lecture, please?
1988
41:46
7:45 endogenity and self causing
So I'm learning about systems dynamics through these lectures and I keep asking myself , How is it that this type of thinking and modeling hasn't resulted in better models? I'm thinking of big issues like economists never seeing recessions and booms and bust cycles in a timely manner. They have not picked up resource use and predict shortages especially about petroleum and natural gas.
Environmental predictions are bad, (remember we thought we'd have an ice free arctic by 2012?) political predictions bad, disease transmission etc of Covid prediction is bad. Maybe systems dynamics deludes people into thinking that they have a big picture of things when they don't. I guess it works on little things like computer questions and uncomplicated things.
Perhaps people are not using it these days for much beyond computer apps or engineering. There aren't many current books applying it to other things like social problems or organizations etc.
There are other modelling techniques, so maybe SD died out in interest beyond engineering or technology with Meadows and Forrester passing, I don't know of course this is just a speculation.
The conant-ashby theorem states that a regulator is only as good as the model of regulation it contains, pretty evident. Now ask yourself, do the models we hold in our social and economic institutions adequate enough to regulate society and the economy? Of course not
The biggest flaws we have at a global level are time delayed information, void based scientific analysis (which means it does not include the environment), an economic system that sections off based on companies and states for the benefit of those companies and states, and lastly a growth goal based economy.
The solutions would be, respectively...
-A real-time communication information system with integrated computer analysis, managing Earth's resources (look into the VenusProject)
-Systems thinking integrated into science (which includes economics)
-Allowing people to enable work among themselves for themselves (democratic workplaces), teaching systems science to management, and having a proper meta-language that intergrates all human firms (look into the Viable System Model)
-Having a goal of homeostasis with our Earth
The most important indicator for course correction is the goal we seek. If our goal is to rape and kill the environment then we are damn well succeeding. If instead it were to be in equilibrium we shall see we have strayed much too far.
Well, i would say that precise and powerful models are computing demanding. In these days, they were discoverying digital computation, and took many years of development in computation architecture and hardware, but i would say that artificial intelligence systems like alphafold 2 are a demonstration of what we will see in terms of models of the reality, what will exponentially increase as it develops.
This is really about control!! 😉
Theory is observation. You observe what already happened. It's a feedback loop. We need to break the loop. This is magic.
This is History.
When you get so good at engineering that you try to fix the world and actually make real progress.
why isn't this absolutely mandatory education for everyone?
7:38
amaze
Sadly truncated
I don't like it when an academic uses "one" as a pronoun a lot
you mean.. "one does not like it"
:)
and he's old school and talking formally due to the occasion maybe..