Really? Do you know that much about plumbing? I get that AGI will have infinite intelligence, but there is very real physical and practical considerations to factor. I think a millennia of humans doing plumbing is reaching the peak. And yes, I have done plumbing.
This is fast becoming one of the best AI channels on RUclips. You and AI Explained are probably the only two channels I really trust to not succumb to, or partake in, hype about AI. Just plain, straightforward reporting and commentary, which is what we need. Thank you!
It’s apparent that we could be in real trouble when so many leaders and researchers in the field of Ai, as well as the answers of Chat GPT 4.o and Claude 3 Opus that we are heading towards a cliff without a driver nor breaks. Seems that Claude thinks we have a 50-70% chance of extinction within 2 years of AGI. It’s not only Claude, it’s the lead Safety researchers who have been tasked to protect us.
Leopold Aschenbrenner is 21...that's worrisome. Some of the central people training this stuff are very young, when mortality is still just a concept, and the idea of tons of people suffering due to massive upheaval might even feel kind of cool in an emotional sense. The way Leopold and Dwarkesh Patel, another man who is max. 25, were discussing WW3, they seemed almost giddy at the prospect.
Thanks for your video! I'm an avid reader of the newsletter - a question if you don't mind: would making your own models still be useful in the future given the AGI systems / other advancements in AI do you think?
Probably a matter of timing? I think a lot of the OpenAI bet (and people I've talked to at Microsoft) say that in the far future the general model will be able to handle everything. Until then, fine-tuning your own model will still be productive
@@theneuronai Unlikely they will be able to replace the accuracy of custom trained models, e.g. your own neural net or other regression/classification algo etc
As soon as you mentioned the words, "hedge fund", all the atmosphere of gloomy predictions sucked the logic out of the room. We will watch a movie about this guy one day after he takes his $2-billion fund and disappears. I'm sure his sales prospectus will talk first about curing hunger, as that is the latest cult tactic. Maybe he could prove useful instead and chart the total time-window of danger posed by slowing down AI vs advancing it as fast as possible. But that would involve real intelligence and not just greed.
It’s a bit misleading to say that these current LLMs like chat gpt4 can be compared to a highschooler, especially after watching people like Francois Chollet talk about how they aren’t able to reason for anything outside of what they were able to memorize from the input data. Meaning the “intelligence” of current AGI is more comparable to a toddler. Similar to your autopilot not doing math, current AGI can’t solve simple puzzles that a 5 year old can.
Great to hear about this wizzkid and the debate playing out. I know this is more of a roundup channel but, as someone whose opinion I deeply respect, I’d love to hear your opinion on this matter. Not so much a prediction but rather what your general feeling is about whether AI will reach the levels of power (and danger) forecast by some
You proved 2 points: 1. As AI advances, it juat becomes software. 2. I personally dont believe there will be a singularity but simply a gradual increase in abilities and intelligence until we get to what we may call AGI or ASI but I still think even when we get there, we will be so used to it, we will just call it software.
Chat-gpt types of AI (Autoregressive Large Language Models) are still very narrow AI. Which is contrary to the core assumption of this argument. e.g. they cannot solve problems with exponentially large problem spaces like chess. They cannot really plan and don't have any plasticity other than the input context. This current path won't lead to AGI, let alone ASI.
I wish you explained how LLM work . We need to debunk what AI is, so people can understand that It’s actually a predictive algorithm that can imitate human intelligence pretty well but the intelligence is not intrinsic to it,It’s being programmed by people. It’s clear with the autonomous driving that has been promised for some years. More data doesn’t mean more intelligence . It really doesn’t understand how the world works and can be fooled easily… enough with all the sky-net doom talking..it’s pretty had to see how LLM can really understand the world . The technology just isn’t built that way.
Hey guys, what are the potential situations that lead to mass extinction of humans because of an Agi and asi? I guess I just can’t really wrap my head around it. Obvi I get the economic part of it. The rich get richer and the poor likely get poorer. But I don’t see how asi could eliminate us besides like a terminator or iRobot type of thang
I'm sorry but this was an inadequate discussion on the likelihood of ai continuing at an exponential pace or not. "We just don't know" while technically true, is not sufficient. Discuss the history of compute power, what makes this different from s curve technology, etc. because this is the central issue. This comes off as lazy.
@@BitBlink I admit it, he is. I get were you're coming from, but I did mean my original reaction to speak about you yourself getting and being fit and stuff. realize, you can live and be your potential. you can, actually, live. you don't have to aspire but keep watching other people doing it actually. change that thought and he's a example of how your life could look like if you were fit and in your potential. healthy, happy and fit.
Let me come back and comment here 2 years from now. I will have a better understanding where AI is heading. Until then, your guess is as good as mine. "WE DO NOT KNOW!"
We actually have some pretty good and reliable heuristics, in the form of various scaling laws that have proven pretty accurate thus far and don’t show any signs of starting to break down any time soon. Screaming “ WE DO NOT KNOW!” at the top of your lungs is definitely overkill.
let's be real, you really don't have to explain AGI to anyone in deep enough to know about this channel. i'd be surprised if a single viewer found that useful
This is fast becoming one of the best AI channels on RUclips. You and AI Explained are probably the only two channels I really trust to not succumb to, or partake in, hype about AI. Just plain, straightforward reporting and commentary, which is what we need. Thank you!
This host obviously has no problems with the anti-China fanaticism of the "free world". This host is himself Chinese, which makes this host a fine specimen of the Model Race, the malleable turncoats who have so transparently excised their own consciousness. I do wonder how he would explain himself to salvage whatever is left of his integrity and dignity. Perhaps the excuse would involve America's born-again anti-communism. Maybe he'll invoke a struggle between a "dictatorship" and a "free world". Whatever he may try, I'm afraid his reputation and fate is sealed as a coward in the face of lazy American propaganda, so cheap as to constitute comic relief rather than libel or slander. (Btw, I must make this disclaimer: I'm Chinese and NOT american. No fellow Chinese who happen upon this comment should mistake my reply as evidence of free thought in the "free world".)
![I.N "HALLUCINATION" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n5B5q1Hwt_U/mqdefault.jpg)
11:29 a super intelligent ASI could rethink plumbing altogether. We really aren't prepared for the utility of superintelligence if it's friendly.
Really? Do you know that much about plumbing? I get that AGI will have infinite intelligence, but there is very real physical and practical considerations to factor. I think a millennia of humans doing plumbing is reaching the peak. And yes, I have done plumbing.
@@kjetilknyttnev3702 if you was a monkey, thought you knew all there was to know about bananas and I invented a banana milkshake...
What is timeline for AGI?
You said "Let's take a breath for second" when I literally started to take a deep breath after hearing the information)
Great video! I was searching for this particular topic and now I also found a high minded channel on AI!
This is fast becoming one of the best AI channels on RUclips. You and AI Explained are probably the only two channels I really trust to not succumb to, or partake in, hype about AI. Just plain, straightforward reporting and commentary, which is what we need. Thank you!
It’s apparent that we could be in real trouble when so many leaders and researchers in the field of Ai, as well as the answers of Chat GPT 4.o and Claude 3 Opus that we are heading towards a cliff without a driver nor breaks. Seems that Claude thinks we have a 50-70% chance of extinction within 2 years of AGI. It’s not only Claude, it’s the lead Safety researchers who have been tasked to protect us.
Leopold Aschenbrenner is 21...that's worrisome. Some of the central people training this stuff are very young, when mortality is still just a concept, and the idea of tons of people suffering due to massive upheaval might even feel kind of cool in an emotional sense. The way Leopold and Dwarkesh Patel, another man who is max. 25, were discussing WW3, they seemed almost giddy at the prospect.
When will agi be achieved?
Keep going Pete! Your videos are world class
Thanks for your video! I'm an avid reader of the newsletter - a question if you don't mind: would making your own models still be useful in the future given the AGI systems / other advancements in AI do you think?
Probably a matter of timing? I think a lot of the OpenAI bet (and people I've talked to at Microsoft) say that in the far future the general model will be able to handle everything. Until then, fine-tuning your own model will still be productive
@@theneuronai Unlikely they will be able to replace the accuracy of custom trained models, e.g. your own neural net or other regression/classification algo etc
Thanks for teams’s insights, keep it up 😊
Excellent presentation of a weighty topic. Good job.
As soon as you mentioned the words, "hedge fund", all the atmosphere of gloomy predictions sucked the logic out of the room. We will watch a movie about this guy one day after he takes his $2-billion fund and disappears. I'm sure his sales prospectus will talk first about curing hunger, as that is the latest cult tactic. Maybe he could prove useful instead and chart the total time-window of danger posed by slowing down AI vs advancing it as fast as possible. But that would involve real intelligence and not just greed.
Phenomenal presentation in every way, great work brother❤
It’s a bit misleading to say that these current LLMs like chat gpt4 can be compared to a highschooler, especially after watching people like Francois Chollet talk about how they aren’t able to reason for anything outside of what they were able to memorize from the input data. Meaning the “intelligence” of current AGI is more comparable to a toddler. Similar to your autopilot not doing math, current AGI can’t solve simple puzzles that a 5 year old can.
Great to hear about this wizzkid and the debate playing out. I know this is more of a roundup channel but, as someone whose opinion I deeply respect, I’d love to hear your opinion on this matter. Not so much a prediction but rather what your general feeling is about whether AI will reach the levels of power (and danger) forecast by some
You proved 2 points: 1. As AI advances, it juat becomes software. 2. I personally dont believe there will be a singularity but simply a gradual increase in abilities and intelligence until we get to what we may call AGI or ASI but I still think even when we get there, we will be so used to it, we will just call it software.
Insightful! Refreshing. Good job.
Chat-gpt types of AI (Autoregressive Large Language Models) are still very narrow AI. Which is contrary to the core assumption of this argument. e.g. they cannot solve problems with exponentially large problem spaces like chess. They cannot really plan and don't have any plasticity other than the input context. This current path won't lead to AGI, let alone ASI.
I wish you explained how LLM work . We need to debunk what AI is, so people can understand that It’s actually a predictive algorithm that can imitate human intelligence pretty well but the intelligence is not intrinsic to it,It’s being programmed by people. It’s clear with the autonomous driving that has been promised for some years. More data doesn’t mean more intelligence . It really doesn’t understand how the world works and can be fooled easily… enough with all the sky-net doom talking..it’s pretty had to see how LLM can really understand the world . The technology just isn’t built that way.
Nice video!
I've been hearing AGI is coming every week since chatGPT was released
Congrats
@@tracy419 you too! 👏👏👏
Congratulations so proud
Hey guys, what are the potential situations that lead to mass extinction of humans because of an Agi and asi? I guess I just can’t really wrap my head around it. Obvi I get the economic part of it. The rich get richer and the poor likely get poorer. But I don’t see how asi could eliminate us besides like a terminator or iRobot type of thang
I like your videos, amazing presenting skills
You lost me at “hedge fund” 😂
You are amazing
Aw shucks 🥺
Anyone ever hear of Malthus? Or a myriad of other alarmists shown to be drastically misguided?
Will AI end the world?
You mean the world were people fight inside Walmart and pick their nose while driving?
Probably.
I got a bad feeling about is
I'm sorry but this was an inadequate discussion on the likelihood of ai continuing at an exponential pace or not. "We just don't know" while technically true, is not sufficient. Discuss the history of compute power, what makes this different from s curve technology, etc. because this is the central issue. This comes off as lazy.
your biceps, slim build and energy, really motivate me.
He’s handsome. Admit it!
@@BitBlink I admit it, he is. I get were you're coming from, but I did mean my original reaction to speak about you yourself getting and being fit and stuff. realize, you can live and be your potential. you can, actually, live. you don't have to aspire but keep watching other people doing it actually. change that thought and he's a example of how your life could look like if you were fit and in your potential. healthy, happy and fit.
It going to branch off somewhere
Nice vid, slow down with ya words sometimes
He doesn't speak fast 🤔
Let me come back and comment here 2 years from now. I will have a better understanding where AI is heading. Until then, your guess is as good as mine. "WE DO NOT KNOW!"
We actually have some pretty good and reliable heuristics, in the form of various scaling laws that have proven pretty accurate thus far and don’t show any signs of starting to break down any time soon. Screaming “ WE DO NOT KNOW!” at the top of your lungs is definitely overkill.
nah we dont know you dont know either
Asian hero ❤
Great stuff 👍 insta sub
In a word. No.
do you pay people to say youre beautiful?
Handsome*
I mean, definitely!
let's be real, you really don't have to explain AGI to anyone in deep enough to know about this channel. i'd be surprised if a single viewer found that useful
I did!
This is fast becoming one of the best AI channels on RUclips. You and AI Explained are probably the only two channels I really trust to not succumb to, or partake in, hype about AI. Just plain, straightforward reporting and commentary, which is what we need. Thank you!
I agree. I could listen to Pete all day
This host obviously has no problems with the anti-China fanaticism of the "free world". This host is himself Chinese, which makes this host a fine specimen of the Model Race, the malleable turncoats who have so transparently excised their own consciousness. I do wonder how he would explain himself to salvage whatever is left of his integrity and dignity. Perhaps the excuse would involve America's born-again anti-communism. Maybe he'll invoke a struggle between a "dictatorship" and a "free world". Whatever he may try, I'm afraid his reputation and fate is sealed as a coward in the face of lazy American propaganda, so cheap as to constitute comic relief rather than libel or slander. (Btw, I must make this disclaimer: I'm Chinese and NOT american. No fellow Chinese who happen upon this comment should mistake my reply as evidence of free thought in the "free world".)