The Yield Curve & Recessions
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- Опубликовано: 4 окт 2023
- The yield curve remains inverted, but the spread between the 10 yr. and 3 mo. treasuries has narrowed. However, the reason for this is has been due to a bear steepener as opposed to a bull steepener. In this video, we talk about these ideas and how it impacts the yield curve. We also discuss the implications of an inverted yield curve on recessions.
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☝️🤩-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and RUclips verified☑️
Hey Ben. Do I need the pro plan to look at these charts in the vid or does standard plan have them? Thanks
@@troybabzHere’s a link to the breakdown of the different plans/tiers: help.intothecryptoverse.com/support/solutions/articles/69000833996-what-charts-tools-are-offered-in-each-tier
Hi Ben. An advice: you should probably set a fix scale for the y-axis so the movements of the curve are comparable. Also including the y=0 is typically a good practice, otherwise very marginal moves can look huge. I know you are aware of all this, just a reminder. Edit: just saw you have that feature available, maybe you just wanna emphasize the monotony of the curve, not by how much it moves. If so, I take it back :)
standard has them@@troybabz
I was thinking all day. “Man I wish Ben would do a video on the yield curve”. Thanks for all you do bro.
Sounds like an interesting day!
I might have issues but I was thinking the same.
Plus, he rocked it, and here we are. Thinking a little bit more clearly now.
Me too!
How is it possible that I learn more from watching Ben on youtube for free than I do from going to finance lectures on my college paying 10k usd a year?
Most colleges pay there football coaches more than their leading professors that are educating... filling seats in a stadium and getting clicks drives economy and here at RUclips, Google is learning from what each of us post and then resells it back as AI information to Microsoft, Oracle, Apple and Open AI.
You're a great teacher!
Ben, your coverage of this topic is phenomenal. You went above and beyond! Thank you so much!!! ❤
Thank you for the comprehensive analysis Ben!
thanks for educating, i was waiting for someone explaining me these bonds yield curves again better.
This is the best analysis, and the only one that makes sense. The next little while will be volatile ... batten down the hatches. We all need to be circumspect and respect the larger macro structures. Thanks Ben.
Thank you, Love the charts and tools. This is probably the best economical analysis/data comparisons, I have ever seen.
Ben I'm learning a great deal from your content, thank you for your efforts.
As an option for future discussions please consider shedding light on what happens to markets during a global currency reset.. ie when a new type of currency will become the global currency.
Not sure what info is available on this too look back on ... bit it'll be a good perspective to consider.
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan. Get access to Ben’s Premium Videos, *Weekly AMA Livestream,* Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnDecisions✔️
Bull/Bear steepener very helpful, thank you Ben
Happy to help!
Impressed you put together a play through of that with your team... nicely done...
Excellent content Ben. Thank you.
Thank you so much for all the insights Ben, really appreciate it!
Brilliant analysis thanks Ben 😊😊
My greatest regret is that in 2006 I was in first grade learning my abc’s rather than buying a house or stocks 😢
Every new generation thinks the previous generation had it easier. There is opportunity to make money everywhere.
Don't worry . You will have same opportunity again to miss.
2006 you would’ve been wrecked. 2009 was the time to buy
Thanks Ben. Great video.
One of the best videos Benji !!! Congrats !!! 🎉🎉🎉
Thanks professor Ben.
Thank you Ben!
Great video Ben, very informative! Keep up the great work. I’m starting to be curious about your premium subscription..
Most fascinating….lots to ponder
Thank you Benjamin
I was there for the 08 recession but I was chasing girls
This is epic ben thank you!
Great concepts, man! Tysm Benj
Superb Analysis. Recession as early as the summer of 2024 or somewhere in the first quarter of 2025 is my expectation.
Love the macroverse videos
Agreed!!
Ben, it’s called a Bull steepener because bonds go up when yields go down. Therefore, it’s bullish bonds
thanks Ben
God bless you and your family my teacher 😍😍😍😍
Thanks Ben!
Ben u woke me again today. Txs
Literally thought ab the yield curve the other day
Só much alfa in this vid!!! Tks
Dang, 2 mins ago! Time to get some more info. Pity it's not about dominance tho...
How do you feel the treasury yield spreads reflect macro economically on Bitcoin specifically?
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan. Get access to Ben’s Premium Videos, *Weekly AMA Livestream,* Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnDecisions✔️
When would you advice DCAing into alts? Are you personally just waiting for btc dominance to hit 60% or have you been accumulating just in case that doesn’t happen? Thanks.
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan. Get access to Ben’s Premium Videos, *Weekly AMA Livestream,* Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnDecisions✔️
Just a random guy here but I would say after ETH bottoms against BTC. I'm curious about other people's thoughts.
I wish there was like100x button for your videos
😊
Ben if you notice this comment, can you do a video on TLTs? Why higher for longer makes them sink? Aren't rising rates supposed to be good for TLT bond market as returns are higher from buying bonds? And you also said in this video something across the lines of Falling Money supply this cycle which wasn't case previous cycles. Weren't QT and rising rates previous cycles equivalent to cuts in money supply too? A video that can contrast out implications of both would be Great! And ThankYou for this Content you give us for free, without Ads! ❤️
Ben shows us that we need more actual doctorates teaching in college rather than graduate students trying to learn to teach.
It tells you the the expected future rates will decrease due to a reaction to a potential future recession, leading to lower long term rates compounding spot and a lower forward/future
Really gotta pay close attention to the Y-Axis i this one
Do you teach the stuff you talk about??? I would love to learn!
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan. Get access to Ben’s Premium Videos, *Weekly AMA Livestream,* Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnDecisions✔️
I think Ben just broke the internet! LOL
❤❤
Hi ben,
There is a recession coming. That looks obvious. But the recession will not look deep when measered in fiat. If we're going to measure all data in big macs then it's much worse. This is due to the amount of money created the last 5 years..
Very informative, thank you. Perhaps the economic programs of the Biden administration have softened the impact so far of higher interest rates on jobs/manufacturing.
Yo
Overlay smash and grabs ROI rate
Long live the Bear steepener.
Inverted yield curve just means that the bond market is signaling weakness in the economy and that it's vulnerable so if things start to get bad that shit can get bad soon
My prediction......every crypto youtubers going to be talking about steepeners 😂😂
Alt coin rip around the corner?
Sad that you have to explain why longer term notes should yield more. What a world we live in….
The different between this era and the previous ones is now central banks are ready to print trillions without the need to consult government first. They only needs hours or max days to decide we need to print. 2008 is the last bear that last years. After that period, each bear market can only last few months at best.
He said central banks, and they do, via quantitative easing.@@asdasdasdqwe123
@@asdasdasdqwe123 Lol, they totally do, that's where most of the money comes from. Depending on country, government money amounts to ~25% of the total supply.
This morning I found I was un-subscribed to your channel…I did not un-subscribe. I wonder what that means?
It probably means you clicked unsubscribe on your phone by accident without realising it.
So the stock market is fucked is what you’re saying 😅
First
Ben, I have been a premium subscriber for three years. These videos to the public cross the line. I understand there's more value to the premium channel than the videos and charts, but why am I paying for your content when you show this value to the public? I love your content, but please reconsider how you share content with the public, especially in the next bull run when interest comes back.
Thank you Sir for your relentless work! I’ve been learning so much from you over the past couple years. Even though you might not be right at all times, watching your perspective and way of thinking, has been really helpful for development of my own approach analysing the markets. I’m really grateful for the opportunity to be learning from you! Appreciate your efforts and immense respect to you! 🫡
🪑✌️somethings on me. I cant see dominance.