The Anthony Bourdain/Keith Richard’s/ Hunter S Thompson Of Finance. Thank you Hugh for sharing your knowledge and your journey through acid capitalism!
Hi Hugh, loved this interview! I have a similar fantasia regarding the current macro situation, but for me it is a possible downturn in the U.S. economy after the rate cuts happen. I think lower interest rates will spur a series of events that will cause a decline in stock market values in a series of dominos dropping. Here’s my thinking: rates get cut, U.S. homeowners put their houses up for sale en masse as the lower rates persuade them to make a change. The huge increase in volume on the real estate market puts downward pressure on prices, which cause homeowners and real estate owners to panic and sell at larger and larger discounts. As people see their equity dry up, this constricts their spending and their perception of personal wealth. You used your home in St. Barts as an example of how people imagine their wealth. When that perception changes substantially, participation in the stock market would have to decline, but this would be only the last in a long series of events precipitated by lower rates. What do you think? Does that perspective have value? Love your interviews, by the way 😊
I follow but they get it hopelessly wrong as much as equities, see 2009 to 2011 bull market. So much real capital invested in new production off the back of a market mis-signal that cost many a mining chief their reputation
It's gotta be something like trend follow when prices and reality correlate, and pay close attention to get out go in big when prices and reality diverge. No clue how to quantify and measure that as an odd lot retail Joe Blow. 🤷♂
@@HughHendryOfficial Rick Rule (another great interview) has noted that during the 2000-2011 gold market, gold miners somehow managed to produce less annualized free cash flow as the price of their product went up 7x. It was refreshing to hear such a veteran in commodities admit that the mining equities have earned the scorn of general equity strategists and asset allocators.
People in Central Bank dress expensive and boring. Even the president. Hugh is having fun in his hotel Hotel of St Barns. Enterpreneur is free. Central bankers - tne ceiling of creativity is taking bribes. Ilmars Rimsevics. The former president of Central bank of Latvia.
Hugh you said 1/2 of 500K to 'equities' but also said 10% of the left over 250K to 'equities' in the shape of the 'big 7'. What is the first 250K hypothetically invested in S&P?
Hugh is probably some kind of genius... probably... but the thick Scottish accent poured over the complicated pile of pasta that is financial banter, topped with a cracked egg that is your brain on drugs... man, it's just tough to follow
Some interesting insights, but a lot of rambling from one little history lesson to another. Starts off exclaiming over shocking low of the Yen, but then wanders off to other pastures, not returning to the subject for 20 minutes and then without a focussed analysis. I got tired of waiting for the denouement around 25 minutes in and swtcihed to George Gammon who is razor sharp on focused argument.
@@HughHendryOfficialHugh as an American I hope I am wrong but America vis a via the Federal Reserve has abused the privilege of a Global Reserve Currency. We are clearly at the end of the 3rd privately owned central bank . The Federal Reserve currency will go bye bye to be replaced with a US Treasury note and it will be a global standard of soundness among many other nations equally sound currencies. Should my SPY puts and TLT calls pan out I will have to come to St Barts to say hello… Jimmy Larkin
@@jimlarkin7859 Disagree with end of King Dollar. Agree with long TLT at cheap premiums with long duration. RESPECT for posting your name and being reasonable. 👏
@@Stashley78 Rudolph imo the USD still remains very very powerful among a global basket of very powerful currencies. It just isn’t king any more that is what I am tryin to convey..again imo USD will be repudiated and it will be quick in the transition from Federal Reserve note to US Treasury note.. also the new USD will be backed by actual verified assets ie the TLT ( per Hugh’s account will do moonshot then drop like an anvil into dust bin of history) bumpy yes very much end of world NO. I remain optimistic..
Hugh goes off the rails when he makes two erroneous claims: 1. current massive US deficit spending is “wise” (Lacy Hunt can straighten him out) 2. tax cuts don’t generate economic growth (where was he from 1982 to 2000?)
"People will only stop committing atrocities when they stop believing absurdities." - Voltaire And you might just believe that GDP is useful metric of economic growth. Lol
Even if he's right, he seems to believe that US / Western "fiscal conservatism" was an innocent mistake. Anyone without rose tinted glasses on would see that it was a very deliberate sellout of the citizens by the financiers and politicians. But Hugh has batty eyed admiration for the US and doesn't believe that they are capable of widespread corruption. Other than that it was a great podcast and Hugh is always interesting to listn to.
it's too much, too late...that's all...should have spent BIG in the years 2000 to 2007 and we wouldn't have had that housing bubble jacked up by foreign money seeking risk free $ paper
Er... No. The population wanted luxuries, like white goods, silk dresses, and more electronics that you could shake a stick at. And guess what? Many of those things could not be sourced and produced in the US at a price that was economic when it was possible. I mean how many silk farms, or rare earth mines are there in the US? Not enough to meet demand from the US population. (Why do you think the US and Europe have has their fingers in Africa's dish since the end of Word War II?) And that reason contributed to the US having to come off the Gold Standard. Why? On the Gold Standard, the US would have to find gold to pay for all it's imports. The Timing was more acute because the Vietnam War pushed up US imports as they produced the materiel needed to fight it, on top of that the boom in consumetism fuelled even more inflation. Paying for those imports - which far exceeded the value of US exports - increased inflation, and would have emptied the US' gold reserves before long even though USD was the global reserve currency. So Nixon tapped out of the Gold Standard, and the US has never looked back. The US' major expert is it's government debt. They fell into the same problems the British Empire did when Stirling was the global reserve currency. Not only did being so push up domestic inflation, it's also forced the UK and the US to produce enough currency to meet the needs of global trade. That's the other side of the Faustian Bargain any country that wants to dominate the global financial system and enjoy cheaper borrowing by being the global reserve currency has to make. Having to provide everybody else with their currency to pay for their US imports meant the US government couldn't do it, and control inflation at home. Keynes at the Bretton Wood Conference argued that there should no longer be a single currency used as international money because of this poisoned chalice of being the global reserve currency. He argued for an averaging of the major global currencies proving the valuation of a virtual international currency - the Bancor - to be used solely to settle international trade transactions. If Keynes had been listened to, the American economy would not have been forced to provide USD and cash equivalent assets as liquidity for the whole planet, and find themselves close to defaulting under Nixon. A position the US is still in. Now, the only way off the hamster wheel from hell is for the American consumer to either lose their taste for consumerism, or the US to relinquish it's status as global reserve currency, neither which is attractive to those running the show in the US. So, eventually the chickens in the form of inflation linked to supply shocks, geopolitical tensions, and the demands placed on the US monetary system was inevitable. The Triffin Dilemma and the Cantillon Effect are interlinked in the present as the consequences of those choices made in the 20th century. But not only by government, but the American public too. And nobody dare tell them that the bill for Post-WWII economic dominance is coming due in the form of economic stagnation and declining living standards in the middle and lower classes, whilst the upper class as middlemen for all the financial interdependence and the asset wealthy gets even richer.
Fun entertaining but utterly valueless in terms of actionable investment advice , 99 percent of the population should buy 50 percent global equity etf and 50 percent global bonds etf and forget about it buy a house and have two years cash and that’s your investment advice you wil be very happy if you follow it but you probably won’t 😂
@@briancrowley1287 well he only did well for a few years and the rest of his performance is totally average like most hedge funds that rarely beat the index for more than 5 years
That’s the best part about Hugh. He ISN’T flexing in his rented lambo professing how easy it is to day trade options and make 5% every day. He provokes the imagination in financial markets and shares contentious and contrarian ideas. He is a provocateur of financial dogma. He has laid out fictitious wealth management ideas, but that’s the boring stuff. I like hearing his thoughts when he hit a big one or missed a big one. That gives me ideas to craft my own trades. Be weary of charlatans promising you easy avenues to wealth, especially if these avenues help Ken griffin buy more mansions
You shouldn’t be looking for investment advice. It is extremely valuable to see how he thinks and how he creates his own thesis from many years of experience.
Hugh, every time I listen to you it re-energizes me as to what fun investing can be and elevates me above the grind.
There’s more info and wisdom in this one video than 1000 “finance” videos on YT. Thanks for sharing your knowledge Hugh 🙏
The Anthony Bourdain/Keith Richard’s/ Hunter S Thompson Of Finance. Thank you Hugh for sharing your knowledge and your journey through acid capitalism!
Yeh they are exactly the kinda of guys I would listen to about finance 😂
Entertainment and Factual. Excellent content
Great Podcast, Something I can listen to over and over again.... Kudos!
You the man, HH!! A bona fide money manager with a counter-culture vibe. Love it. EDIT: those hats are bad @ss, BTW.
Great show Hugh. Always educational and appreciated.
Hi Hugh, loved this interview! I have a similar fantasia regarding the current macro situation, but for me it is a possible downturn in the U.S. economy after the rate cuts happen. I think lower interest rates will spur a series of events that will cause a decline in stock market values in a series of dominos dropping. Here’s my thinking: rates get cut, U.S. homeowners put their houses up for sale en masse as the lower rates persuade them to make a change. The huge increase in volume on the real estate market puts downward pressure on prices, which cause homeowners and real estate owners to panic and sell at larger and larger discounts. As people see their equity dry up, this constricts their spending and their perception of personal wealth. You used your home in St. Barts as an example of how people imagine their wealth. When that perception changes substantially, participation in the stock market would have to decline, but this would be only the last in a long series of events precipitated by lower rates. What do you think? Does that perspective have value? Love your interviews, by the way 😊
Incredible. If I understand 80% with 100% confidence, I'd likely be able to macro-trade even with new events never discussed
I'd love it if you had a chat with Michael Howell, pretty please
I should do that...
I second this
This guy has an amazing gift to sound somewhat intelligent and yet not say anything in a full hour.
Hugh do you follow the prices of commodities or are they interrelated with equities, bonds and capital to the point it's irrelevant?
I follow but they get it hopelessly wrong as much as equities, see 2009 to 2011 bull market. So much real capital invested in new production off the back of a market mis-signal that cost many a mining chief their reputation
It's gotta be something like trend follow when prices and reality correlate, and pay close attention to get out go in big when prices and reality diverge. No clue how to quantify and measure that as an odd lot retail Joe Blow. 🤷♂
@@HughHendryOfficial Rick Rule (another great interview) has noted that during the 2000-2011 gold market, gold miners somehow managed to produce less annualized free cash flow as the price of their product went up 7x. It was refreshing to hear such a veteran in commodities admit that the mining equities have earned the scorn of general equity strategists and asset allocators.
The oil trader joke made my day!
This guy is smarter than he dresses.
People in Central Bank dress expensive and boring. Even the president.
Hugh is having fun in his hotel Hotel of St Barns.
Enterpreneur is free. Central bankers - tne ceiling of creativity is taking bribes. Ilmars Rimsevics. The former president of Central bank of Latvia.
Hugh you said 1/2 of 500K to 'equities' but also said 10% of the left over 250K to 'equities' in the shape of the 'big 7'. What is the first 250K hypothetically invested in S&P?
Very accurate, no one cares because things are going up.
Well said Hugh. 👍
Great session
Captions engaged---
Legendary
Absolutely priceless 👍🏼👏🏼🍉🍿
What happened to Patreon?
If you only invest 10% if your net worth where do you park the rest of your money?
Great discussion but net worth beyond the $500K of $4.5M is in real estate. I gather no concerns there, Hugh ??
Divorce. Lifestyle choice. Irreplaceable real estate best store of value known to postmodern man.
❤❤❤✝️✝️✝️
Levered against the equity of the real estate?
Please I wanna see you speak to Peter schiff
Just stay away from EuroPac... you'll def lose money.
Nice antidote to the well known goldminefund pusher.
Hugh is probably some kind of genius... probably... but the thick Scottish accent poured over the complicated pile of pasta that is financial banter, topped with a cracked egg that is your brain on drugs... man, it's just tough to follow
Hugh looking a bit ropy. Think he makes his living now renting out hol properties in the Caribbean.
I cannot see big growth happening in the USA.
Any growth in the USA is government spending.
Some interesting insights, but a lot of rambling from one little history lesson to another. Starts off exclaiming over shocking low of the Yen, but then wanders off to other pastures, not returning to the subject for 20 minutes and then without a focussed analysis. I got tired of waiting for the denouement around 25 minutes in and swtcihed to George Gammon who is razor sharp on focused argument.
Hugh if anything the rest of the world will repudiate king dollar ( occurring now)
absolutely not, just cause you keep saying it, it's not gonna happen. Repudiation will come from the US. You watch 😘
@@HughHendryOfficialHugh as an American I hope I am wrong but America vis a via the Federal Reserve has abused the privilege of a Global Reserve Currency. We are clearly at the end of the 3rd privately owned central bank . The Federal Reserve currency will go bye bye to be replaced with a US Treasury note and it will be a global standard of soundness among many other nations equally sound currencies. Should my SPY puts and TLT calls pan out I will have to come to St Barts to say hello…
Jimmy Larkin
@@jimlarkin7859 Disagree with end of King Dollar. Agree with long TLT at cheap premiums with long duration. RESPECT for posting your name and being reasonable. 👏
@@Stashley78 Rudolph imo the USD still remains very very powerful among a global basket of very powerful currencies. It just isn’t king any more that is what I am tryin to convey..again imo USD will be repudiated and it will be quick in the transition from Federal Reserve note to US Treasury note.. also the new USD will be backed by actual verified assets ie the TLT ( per Hugh’s account will do moonshot then drop like an anvil into dust bin of history) bumpy yes very much end of world NO. I remain optimistic..
Hugh goes off the rails when he makes two erroneous claims: 1. current massive US deficit spending is “wise” (Lacy Hunt can straighten him out) 2. tax cuts don’t generate economic growth (where was he from 1982 to 2000?)
"People will only stop committing atrocities when they stop believing absurdities." - Voltaire
And you might just believe that GDP is useful metric of economic growth. Lol
Even if he's right, he seems to believe that US / Western "fiscal conservatism" was an innocent mistake. Anyone without rose tinted glasses on would see that it was a very deliberate sellout of the citizens by the financiers and politicians. But Hugh has batty eyed admiration for the US and doesn't believe that they are capable of widespread corruption.
Other than that it was a great podcast and Hugh is always interesting to listn to.
it's too much, too late...that's all...should have spent BIG in the years 2000 to 2007 and we wouldn't have had that housing bubble jacked up by foreign money seeking risk free $ paper
Er... No. The population wanted luxuries, like white goods, silk dresses, and more electronics that you could shake a stick at. And guess what? Many of those things could not be sourced and produced in the US at a price that was economic when it was possible. I mean how many silk farms, or rare earth mines are there in the US? Not enough to meet demand from the US population. (Why do you think the US and Europe have has their fingers in Africa's dish since the end of Word War II?) And that reason contributed to the US having to come off the Gold Standard. Why? On the Gold Standard, the US would have to find gold to pay for all it's imports. The Timing was more acute because the Vietnam War pushed up US imports as they produced the materiel needed to fight it, on top of that the boom in consumetism fuelled even more inflation. Paying for those imports - which far exceeded the value of US exports - increased inflation, and would have emptied the US' gold reserves before long even though USD was the global reserve currency. So Nixon tapped out of the Gold Standard, and the US has never looked back. The US' major expert is it's government debt. They fell into the same problems the British Empire did when Stirling was the global reserve currency. Not only did being so push up domestic inflation, it's also forced the UK and the US to produce enough currency to meet the needs of global trade. That's the other side of the Faustian Bargain any country that wants to dominate the global financial system and enjoy cheaper borrowing by being the global reserve currency has to make. Having to provide everybody else with their currency to pay for their US imports meant the US government couldn't do it, and control inflation at home. Keynes at the Bretton Wood Conference argued that there should no longer be a single currency used as international money because of this poisoned chalice of being the global reserve currency. He argued for an averaging of the major global currencies proving the valuation of a virtual international currency - the Bancor - to be used solely to settle international trade transactions. If Keynes had been listened to, the American economy would not have been forced to provide USD and cash equivalent assets as liquidity for the whole planet, and find themselves close to defaulting under Nixon. A position the US is still in. Now, the only way off the hamster wheel from hell is for the American consumer to either lose their taste for consumerism, or the US to relinquish it's status as global reserve currency, neither which is attractive to those running the show in the US. So, eventually the chickens in the form of inflation linked to supply shocks, geopolitical tensions, and the demands placed on the US monetary system was inevitable. The Triffin Dilemma and the Cantillon Effect are interlinked in the present as the consequences of those choices made in the 20th century. But not only by government, but the American public too. And nobody dare tell them that the bill for Post-WWII economic dominance is coming due in the form of economic stagnation and declining living standards in the middle and lower classes, whilst the upper class as middlemen for all the financial interdependence and the asset wealthy gets even richer.
@@HughHendryOfficial Housing Bubble? What about the Sugar Sweet Ponzi scheme Bitcoin Bubble that you promote?
A bucking bronco 😂
Fun entertaining but utterly valueless in terms of actionable investment advice , 99 percent of the population should buy 50 percent global equity etf and 50 percent global bonds etf and forget about it buy a house and have two years cash and that’s your investment advice you wil be very happy if you follow it but you probably won’t 😂
@@briancrowley1287 well he only did well for a few years and the rest of his performance is totally average like most hedge funds that rarely beat the index for more than 5 years
I'm not your investment advisor. Find actionable ideas from your imagination.
That’s the best part about Hugh. He ISN’T flexing in his rented lambo professing how easy it is to day trade options and make 5% every day. He provokes the imagination in financial markets and shares contentious and contrarian ideas. He is a provocateur of financial dogma. He has laid out fictitious wealth management ideas, but that’s the boring stuff. I like hearing his thoughts when he hit a big one or missed a big one. That gives me ideas to craft my own trades. Be weary of charlatans promising you easy avenues to wealth, especially if these avenues help Ken griffin buy more mansions
5 min in already got one. Cough Yen cough treasury and yields.
You shouldn’t be looking for investment advice. It is extremely valuable to see how he thinks and how he creates his own thesis from many years of experience.
Glitchy graphics FX screams inexperienced editor trying to impress by overusing stuff. Comes off looking amateur.
Homeless Capital !!!! Cool !