2025: Out of the cyclical storm and into the policy fog

Despite uncertainty at the onset, 2024 is shaping up to be yet another impressive year for the economy and markets. A resilient consumer has put the U.S. on pace for another year of above-trend growth, and the S&P 500 has rallied over 25% so far, breaching $6,000 for the first time in history. That said, with a new year comes new opportunities as well as challenges. As the cyclical imbalances exacerbated by the pandemic and tight monetary policy continue to improve, economic conditions should normalize further in 2025, although a new element of policy uncertainty introduced by the incoming Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress threatens to cloud the outlook. While new policies might hurt prospects in some asset classes, they should benefit others, and investors have plenty to be excited about heading into the new year.
To dive deeper into our 2025 outlook, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Chief Strategist for the Americas here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.