'CISCO OF 1999': Will Nvidia repeat Cisco's fate?
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- Опубликовано: 23 май 2024
- The Bahnsen Group managing partner and CIO David Bahnesn joins 'Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street' to discuss JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's 'bearish' market perspective and Nvidia's valuation.
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To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing. Winning and losing are just part of the game. Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
Anyone who think Nvidia and Cisco are comparable should be laughed at.
The people who say "the only ones making money on AI are chip companies":
1) obviously aren't using AI themselves
2) shouldn't be analyzing AI companies
why attack the player? just give a counter example woudn't that prove your point better? or you can't?
Jamie is a clown. The guy was wrong ALL of 2023.
clown and also a hypocrite.
Nvidia is not at all like Cisco
Well said
Many of Cisco's customer's weren't making money. All of Nvidia's customer's are printing money! Big difference. I think this gentleman underestimates the impact AI will have on the world. Military applications, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, you name it. It's not data, it's intelligence. You fall behind, you lose!
@@apophisxo4480 agree 👍
the comparison is warranted, its about sustainability. NVDA is selling 100-200bln dollars per in GPUs, how long can this continue? That is the real question. In order to prevent the stock from crashing, they need to establish software moats and services as additional revenue streams
@@briantep458 Crash? Crash to where? Down 50%? We're all still up!!! Post split you're saying the stock of the most dominant company in the most dominant industry in the most dominant country will be trading at $50???? For how long? Not only would that be the buying opportunity of a life time, but dip buyers would flood in. This company deserves it's multiple. If anything the influence of AI is vastly underestimated. Forget tech companies, which global military will be skimping on their AI budget? The first nation to win the race to AGI wins...forever! Are you kidding?
Nvidia is growing into its valuation, whole Cisco was not. At its peak, it was nearly at 200 PE. Nvidia is at 61 right now.
Will big tech keep spending same amount of money or more indefintely on nvidia chips though?
@@o__sama all signs are pointing to 'yes', at least up through 2030. Difficult to predict much farther than that. Who knows what will change by then.
@@Zach-rw6jf That's impossible, ALL cloud rproviders evenue in 2023 was 80 billion, nvidia revenue is 120 billion 2024, you're saying nvidia revenue will be higher than all cloud providers for 6 years ?
Want to improve the economy/inflation? "Drill-Baby-Drill!"
Nope the solution is simple it’s called “budget” create a surplus pay back the debt. As the debt is paid off less yearly interest payments.
Trump made a global deal to CUT oil output in 2020, which was hugely inflationary.
Currently, the U.S. is producing oil at all-time highs under Biden. The U.S. is the world's number one producer.
What’s oil gonna do for housing?
You cannot compare Cisco to Nvidia's innovation and its justification for its stock price. NVIDIA market cap is almost of Apple. Invest in Nvidia and be wealthier !!!
Intel is a much better comparison. I worked at Intel for 17 years. Intel x86 architecture dominated for 20+ years. Back in 2007, Nvidia launched CUDA to transition workloads from CPU to GPU. There are huge barriers to entry in this business. An Nvidia has a constant first mover advantage. I got into the Nvidia “bubble” at 250 a share in 2018. Since then, the stock split 4:1 and it’s about to split 10:1. My original $17K -> $255K over 6yrs.
Will Nvidia peak and decline? Yes, but AI is driving a huge upgrade cycle or data centers and clients. I believe Nvidia has 2 to 5 years before a possible pullback. Nvidia has by far been my best stock pick.
My best pick ever also. Got in 1/19/2016 at $24 , after the 10-1 split I’ll have a cost basis of .60 per share(obv including the 4-1 split also) $4800 into over 850k !
Well said. The revenue they make from their datacenters is insane and constant growth.
I agree that Intel is the better comparison. For years I have been referring to Nvidia as the next Intel. In fact, I now think of them as the next Wintel, due to the CUDA operating system. As long as Huang’s Law in GPUs remains relevant, I don’t see them turning into CSCO. In Cisco’s case, advancements in networking technology slowed dramatically. When Moore’s Law came to an end, INTC stopped growing. I believe as long as GPUs keep advancing, NVDA will continue growing.
Cisco was about 4 times the price that NVDA is now based on earnings in 1999. In addition this news clip makes it seem like it is the responsibility of one co. To pull the market up…Most stocks that move rapidly up get overbought at some point. That point is not yet here
Sorry for the guy missed out the Nvidia rally. Cisco in 1999 to 2021 annual revenue growth rate was 43%, 55%, 18% and the gross margin was about 50%, with forward PE of over 100. Nvidia just released quarter result revenue growth rate was 262% ( EPS growth was over 650%), gross margin at 78% (i.e total dominance with its AI solutions), the forward PE is 58. Nvidia PEG is significantly lower than most other tech giants such as Apple, Tesla etc.
NVDA valuation in low, not high. Us millionaire shareholders will be laughing all the way to the bank at this CSCO comparison.
The difference is CSCO sold a sub $100 router. While NVDA sells the top technology in the country, 50k a chip to the top companies/countries in the world.
People are really misunderstanding and confusing eras, technologies and companies. Cisco who what? When a company is solid and innovative it will last and last for decades. AI is basically run ONLY by one company as a monopoly. That company’s name is NVIDIA.
I can't see any similarities between the two!! Nvidia has risen 372 fold in a decade, is still outperforming expectations and posting results a company 10000 times smaller would be proud of! What keeps N VIDIA growth high is their ability to be 1 step ahead of their competitors and by keep innovating. Their business strategy isn't too dissimilar to that of Microsoft.
Over the past 2+ years, SO MANY (even seasoned traders) have, and continue to say, often arrogantly and condescendingly, how unwise we obviously are for having invested in Nvidia, because, it is a definite humongous "bubble" ready to explode. (You know - the farcical comparisons to Cisco, for example.)
These people are blinded by events/circumstances in the past which had very distinct differences to those behind Nvidia's rocketing - but for any of a plethora of possible reasons, these folks lacked the ability to SEE that Nvidia was Godzilla-like, and rocking Wall Street, not due to a bubble, or hype - but rather, because of great product demand, huge, compounding-revenue-increases, and profit margins beyond that of perhaps any other predominately hardware firm, ever.
The differences between Nvidia, and Cisco's situation, weren't at all nuanced, but rather, clear and distinct - yet these people still were unable to see beyond their (historical) prejudices.
They were, I think, ignorant of reality because of their inability to see the "plain-as-day" differences.
The guy is comparing with a company from 1999 🤦🏻♂️
Dude knows nothing about Nvidia. He's mad he missed the boat.
Either that or he has a short position.
Bubble is a technical term for a rising market in which you are not (yet) invested.
If you compare it to Cisco, can you tell me ciscos revenue and cogs vs Nvidia revenue/cogs?
0:49 and how many times has JPMorgan been bailed out again??? YEAH THOUGHT SO
AMD Qualcomm and IBM. ARN. And most are the service center that will run this. That's the money .The storage company
He does NOT understand that the reasons Nvidia is doing well: 1. It is like they have inveted and are selling oxygen at the beginning of life on earth, many life froms need oxygen to survive and grow; same with Nvidia chips, many companies need them to survive and grow; 2. Rapid and continuous innovation, Nvidia, unlike Cisco, invents all of its own products. NVIDIA creates continuous demand by selling better functionig "oxygen" (chips), that companies need to survive.
Totally agree and u nailed it man. Next week I m going to buy more and more NVIDIA stocks
NVDA is not the "anything of the anything", Sir. Preaching good market trading practices learned over time should always be a staple of one's investment strategy. But applying it to NVDA is simply misguided...but fear not! If I'm wrong, I'll get to feel the pain x10 in a couple of weeks.
AI is great as a free novelty. But if AI replaces jobs, that's one fewer paycheck and consumer, one fewer homeowner, and one fewer taxpayer for each job replaced. All tech has a double-edged sword quality. Where will the displaced workers go for incomes? Where will the companies go for customers? Can AI synthesize customer purchases? Using synthesized cash it earned day-trading crypto currency?
One less job equals one less taxpayer 🥶
The Fed bought stocks during the pandemic that helped prop up the stock market. Not clear if the stock was ever sold back to the public. If it was not sold the stock should be soold back, so the market can come to its true level. If that Fed held stock has not been sold back to the market than policy markers are benifiting from a falsly elevated stock market, while the working class suffers.
I think what is happening is that the younger generation of investors are speculative investors who aren’t following the economics. They follow trends instead of research. That is why the market is defying common sense. It will implode. We just don’t know when.
if you wanna use Cisco as a parallel and decide to talk about valuation, you should probably mention cisco's valuation rather than just what their stock price was
Not yet
END THE STOCK MARKET
Tech stock is never a good indicator of the real economy. Algorithms come&go. Steel and wood are solid pillars of real people.
Copper too
Jerome Powell destroying the country. And we can’t even blame Biden because trump appointed him so technically both trump and Biden are to blame for this!
How do I get rich fast?wish I had a very large bunch of wheat fields growing.
China will stop buying us wheat and buy from russia and South America, US farmers are in for a rough ride.
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Sonia campbell
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situatio
She's recognized as 'Mrs sonia . One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
I even thought I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of forex trading.....
Ugg, if you use The Bahnsen Group, I'll change because you might be missing out big time on $$$ with folks like this in that company. You pretty much know this guy is clueless as soon as he started to compare NVDA to CISCO. In addition too, for a growth stock why is he using P/E and not Future P/E. It's GROWTH Bro, and NVDA is growing very well. The only thing I agree to this guy is yes, eventually NVDA price will have a major correction, but the odds of that in 2024 or even 2025 is reduced a lot after everything Jensen stated in earning report. So make a lot of money on NVDA, and then evaluate NVDA based on earning reports in the future. Look if you listen to folks like this, please just stick to target funds and forget growth stocks. What a waste of my time watching this video with this guy. Total waste...
This is to scare you
When he compares Nvidia to Cisco, you know he has no business talking about technology.
There is no comparison at all.. perhaps AMD is closer candidate
Jamie diamond, do as I say not as I do! He likes to give out advice he doesn’t follow! Chase is Long several Thousand equities and ETFs
No🎯💯
Nvda is current day Blockbuster 🔙 in the day.
CEO thinks he Arturo Fonzarelli... hahaha 🤣🤣🤣
Nvidia has a lot of revenue just from 4 customers. All of those customers have a habit of building their own chips to lower the datacenter cost. So what might look rosy right now will be a bloodshed in 3-4 years. Nvidia has to reinvent itself within that timeline. Nvidia has the momentum that Tesla has 4 years back so it can deflate later.
haha. Fox.
Are u sure it is just 4, think some more reading needed!
To anyone reading this, please do not take this bozos opinion seriously.
I think the conclusion of his talk was very solid...
Nvidia should have moved to graphene semiconductors instead of AI.
Nvidia is the new cisco. Why? Most ai startup will fail and most gpu become useless
Not really, meta, amazon, tesla, and a handfull of others use up most of the chips
My job is just to write the wave and make money. Up or down.
This is a clown, and has no expertise. He can only talk about the chart. Cisco crashed because it cannot compete with Huawei. Does he k ow anything g?
I like how there's more pessimism on the Fox financial channel... for some strange reason
That will change after the elections if Trump wins. Whether you agree with them or no, it's clear that "news" stations are more concerned about politics and moving an agenda than your financial health. Everyone is trying to sell you something! Why did this guy even come on the show. Why not talk about the value of Bitcoin or Doge coin. What about AMC and Mr. Kennedy? Is this really the best example of froth in this market? What's his angle???
Bear bear and bear …