Fermi Paradox: Stay At Home Civilizations
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- Опубликовано: 12 сен 2024
- The Fermi Paradox often assumes alien civilizations with the technology to explore and settle the galaxy would seek to do so, but what if high-tech civilizations remain on their own planet or solar system? And what reasons might they have for doing so?
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Tired of the Discovery Channel explaining the transit method for the 100th time? Upset that the History Channel assumes we've never made it past high school in their space documentaries? Hold onto your seats, it's Isaac Arthur, and it's about to get good.
simon farmer well said. Space documentaries suck now. I should do something about it too!
I agree, and it's hard to learn with so many advertisements and such
:)
simon farmer Totally agree
Well said, couldn't agree more :-)
Internet is amazing, I VPN out of China wall just to watch science channels like this one. High quality content, thank you.
thats pretty cool my dude
Godspeed to you. Knowledge and creativity are what humanity is made for, and it's a shame when some groups try to censor it. When tyranny becomes law, resistance is duty.
Stay strong!
Reported
Golden Robodude, For no good reason
This comment is for Issac Arthur I'm a truck driver and I listen to your videos almost every day I'm working you are awesome and keep it up
Thanks! and safe driving :)
Humans don't have it in them to be stay-at-home civilization. Curiosity will always lead us to explore the farthest frontiers.
I agree, and since that is that same curiosity that drove us to technology I have difficulty imagining many civilizations wouldn't share that trait to some degree or another.
I hope so :-)
Isaac Arthur Well any civilization capable of even considering space exploration will already be technologically advanced and thus scientifically driven, and by definition science is driven by curiosity. It's like moths drawn to a flame.
If there are stay-at-home civilizations out there, they would be such because of reasons beyond their control, I imagine.
Curiosity make us send proves to space. Conquer the stars... that needs greed and feasibility.
Sacha Daenens
_If there are stay-at-home civilizations out there, they would be such because of reasons beyond their control, I imagine._
Hmm, let's see:
All technological civilizations become post-biological prior to developing the ability to spread around the galaxy. Post-biological civilizations are invariably singletons. All singletons despise latency. Therefore, uh, technological intelligences just grab all the matter in immediate proximity to their planet of origin, and femtotech it into a very dense ball of computronium -- in which they can simulate universes with more desirable properties.
Or some such thing.
**edit**
Maybe not a terrible premise for a SF novel -- humanity breaks out into the galaxy before becoming entirely post-biological, to find no evidence of intelligence except for a smattering of mysterious, artificial neutron stars.
"Not as awesome as a dinosaur, but pretty awesome."
Shared the video just for that quote.
Also, you may want to consider getting T-shirts made with that slogan or some variant.
This man is a demonstrable genius who is making the internet (and humanity) better with his hard work, and all that some can do is point out his obvious speech impediment? I seriously hope the ones doing it are adolescents still learning to interact with others.
How can I love humanity, yet hate people at the same time? Ugh.
Rob Bradley just shows you there are a ton of stupid and immature people. I agree, this man is an amazing genius!!
I choose him as my immortal leader as we spend the eons to explore the galaxy.
Doobies God Emperor
You know how Einstein said human stupidity is infinite? He was talking about this kind of thing. He wasn't complaining about people who aren't good at math or anything like that. He meant moral stupidity.
I love the videos, but Isaac is not a "demonstrable genius". He makes numerous assumptions in these episodes, especially in using historical examples to justify predictions, which are arguable at best. For example, growth predictions, the casual way he treats "immortality" or the second law of thermodynamics.
21:52 "...would seem like a few million years for you, which is even longer than it takes George R.R. Martin to publish a new book."
fukkin' *_LOL_*
Just discovered you. I appreciate your existence and the existence of this channel. It does the world a great service. Thanks for your efforts.
R. McCormick welcome to a wonderful thing
Just reminding you about this wonderful channel.
@@MTyler8787 no way I needed it. Haha. Thanks tho
@@HeilSol good man
Hey man, I always wanted to tell you this, however I always tend to forget.
Your videos are great, many channels approach similar themes such as yours but in a shallow manner and for people like me it's not enough. This is basically the only channel (that I found at least) that goes in depth. Keep up the good work and.. I think you're doing good so far.
Number 9 Agreed! This channel is something special.
Number 9 I agree, Chanel's like Vsauce, thoughty2, etc. are interesting but they don't go in depth nearly as much as this one
Thanks guys!
No amount of personal messages or fan -mail could show how much we truly appreciate the material you provide the community. Personally I like to have your videos on in the background while I work away on 3D models, and sometimes while I partake in some light gaming.
you sound Swedish,,keep doing what you do.and have a good yule
"Stay at home" civilizations. How appropriate, or would it be predictive? 😁
Foreshadowing, I think.
Let me make a prediction for you...there will be another pandemic in the future and people will be told to stay at home.
Maybe there is some sort of space flu around
Neither, and if you think that, you're an idiot
Its neither. People like you need to stop making dumb jokes
Like if you want this man to be given the title: Sir Isaac Arthur
jet flaque uhh no
@Enclave Soldier
In the English tradition, a knighthood is not a patent of nobility, as it does not make one eligible to sit in the house of lords. A knight is merely a member of the gentry, unless he also has claim to a Barony or higher.
I was thinking "Isaac Fudd".
@@Unmedicated_Moments uhh yes
@Enclave Soldier No. you fuck off with muh communism
I found the idea of adjusting the sun's output to power an introverted, acorporeal civilisation's needs almost indefinitely to be quite staggering. It serves as a valid stay-at-home scenario but, as per your own conclusions, this cannot explain Fermi on the whole. In fact, I find the entire notion of an advanced society remaining on one world to be an unrealistic one. My own gut, non-scientific feeling on the matter is that we don't see anyone else in the Universe because they are simply not there. Science has failed to adequately explain what intelligence actually is. It also hasn't explained why humans became intelligent in the first place. After all, why was it that it was intelligent primates which stepped down onto the Sea of Tranquility in 1969? Why not, say, an intelligent velociraptor? The dinosaurs had more than enough time to crack it with intelligence, after all. What is the final evolutionary hurdle to be overcome before an animal's brain grows enough complexity to allow intelligence to evolve? My guess is that the phenomenon doesn't occur very often. Also, given the relative 'youth' of the Universe, it's entirely possible we are the first ones to evolve a conscious brain. It's certainly something to consider. And another great, thought-provoking video, by the way.
Yes that's more or less my own default state, no one other intelligent civilizations in the galaxy and probably none within a billion or so light years, hence why I was surprised the FB group asked me to tackle this idea, which hopefully I did fairly.
Isaac Arthur You did tackle this, and as per my expectations. With that, I'll wish you a peaceful season, and I look forward to your next production. However, I do hope to see more on the actual CAUSES of intelligence in future productions. This is what puzzles me, after all:: the cause(s) of conscious thought. It is NOT fair on you: Richard Dawkins, et al, have ever failed to provide an adequate explanation on this phenomenon even now. WHY do we think? I do value your thoughts on this subject, though. A future video? I hope so.
"I traveled the road many times, sat on the porch, played the games, been
the dog, everything. I was even the scarecrow for a while." --Quinn, Q Continuum.
Yeah, I'd rather go out with dignity too. I think if I made it to the age of 10^105, or whatever the "end of the universe" happens, I'd rather just let it sit out in the void and hope some quantum fluctuation brings more energy than turning my computers into fuel which would only buy a tiny fraction more time.
What would happen if beings lived on a planet but could not see stars (blind, multi-star system without night, tidal locked with no easy access to the night side, permanent cloud cover, subterranean culture, etc). Could they be "stay at home" simply because they have no concept of an outside universe?
They would probably use a radio for communication or at least would be sensitive to infrared, so they would know about EM spectrum. And after sending first satelite to orbit, they should realize, there are some other sources of EM than their sun(s).
This exactly gets explored in Asimove's Nightfall. Due to very unlikely orbital arrangements, a planet with eternal sunshine falls dark and the people go crazy suddenly seeing millions of other stars.
Great book... awful, awful film adaptation though.
Read Macroscope, by Piers Anthony. He covers most of your material in his science fi epic. And he foresees the internet back in 1969.
Nightfall sounds like that episode of the orville
Amazing work as always! You are one of the few RUclipsrs who have kept their quality consistent.
lol, thanks, though I've been hoping the quality has been rising :)
consistently rising :) good work
“I am once again asking... for more NASA funding”
Chris Hadfield is a member of the ISS and his videos have million views but he is the only famous astronaut in the current time
capitantomate What about Tim Peake?
Cool, I'm going to go subscribe.
It is sad that the people, things, etc. after the first are never remembered. The vice president, the second closest star system, an Olympic swimmer who isn't Phelps, the second person on the moon, minor countries during ww2, any minor nuclear test, and so much more
i wanted more discussion about what such a civilization would be like. this video does do a bit of it, but it mostly focuses on why a civilization might become one. i would welcome a part 2 of this video focusing entirely on the details of how they work once they have established itself as a stay at home civilization.
He did not cover all the reasons either. I think the most likely one is due to the vastness of interstellar space that is always ignored or trivialized in these videos. Isaac has conceded that we may never have the best technology for that (fusion). Even if we did, It may still be too expensive and the journey centuries too long for any human to bear. It would then be easier and more exciting for humanity to remain on earth and explore a virtual outer space like No Man's Sky even if it is fake.
the distance is just translated into time in the video. expense is not an issue, he makes good argument for that in his other videos.
what could he tell you what you not already know? they would be a united race, they would Colonize the entire Solarsytem they life in and they would be realy good at recycling.
OR they would be like "Morning Light Mountain"
staying at home = extinction
It's good to see I'm not the only one feeling that we are wasting our time and opportunities being locked down at Earth. Most people don't realize we are racing time to break from here
Our destiny is to expand out into the stars.
Well the last option says they’ll go until they can’t anymore
@@Rishi123456789 says who?! You? You do not decide the destiny ov our species. If it were our destiny then we would have evolved some way to leave without stripping our planet for resources so a few can try to live on another planet. Simply stupid.
Besides it would cost far more then any ov us could ever afford. End up being all the "elitist" trash that could pay to leave. Like Bezos & the Kardassians... I would rather die on Earth. They are not even good enough for me to eat!
@@jaymevosburgh3660 Alrighty then. Looks like you won't be involved in any decisions regarding space exploration. I think it was kind of understood that cowardly, selfish people of limited vision wouldn't be. Though it sounds like you _are_ the kind of person who would seek to prevent others from doing so....for noble reasons, no doubt. Also, just an FYI, the historical record shows that it was never the wealthy or the rulers who dared to go into unknown territory, and yet there were people who did. Those are the people who will go into space
Why are you wasting your time listening to people dreaming of going into the universe, anyway? Isn't there a wrong thinking twitter account that needs to be cancelled somewhere?
I have pondered through some of these ideas myself over the course of my life but not every Thursday with your detail and logical analysis. Awesome Isaac.
Thanks!
Just found him a couple months ago and have been working through his back catalog. The best and most impressive thing I find is that his vision and logic never conflict and his analytical approach is wonderfullly open-miinded. I don't know how he decided not to become a science fiction writer, because he perfectly understands the unique virtues of science fiction; combining wonder with solid extrapolation and coming up with something new and wonderful.
I thoroughly enjoyed the alien race suggested in District 9 as it was original and such a realistic scenario. Imagine sending a colony ship somewhere else for something to go wrong and have it end up that the ship arrives to its location to only have had the rats as survivors
Thank you for this, Isaac. Your content is exceptional.
Thanks!
" I do not agree, but that doesn't invalidate that perspective." What a wonderful point of view. I wish more people adopted that.
agreed
Yay! Love it when I see you in my notification box!
Me too! My brain has a little party.
You don't actually have to subscribe. Google will put the videos in your recommended list anyways.
:) I do rather prefer when people subscribe though
Isaac Arthur Yah notification box is kind of a hit or miss.
5:20 "To defend the world from devastation, to unite all peoples within our nation...."
Concerning the idea of message lag being infuriating to transhumans: I watch most RUclips videos at 1.25x or 1.5x speed because talking takes too long already. I imagine having an accelerated mind would make this even worse.
On the other hand larger structure tend to work slower than smaller one. (Atoms interact at shorter time scales than cells, cells at shorter timescales than organs, a single human mind acts at shorter timescales than organisation) So I predict the next step up in complexity and consciousness works on even larger timescales. But each step will be tremendously more complex, detailed and interesting.
In my flipped classes I watch all videos at minimum 1.5x speed ('flipped" meaning the teacher makes videos for us to watch at home and we do problems/ask questions at school).
Tristan Wegner That is one possibility, yes, but a Borg-like entity seems no more likely than each individual just being highly accelerated by drugs/electric stimulation/attached computer bits.
Greetings everyone. For videos I’m trying to understand, I typically turn on captioning or subtitles, freeze-frame it repeatedly, repeat confusing sections as well as the whole video, and look up the words I don’t know, etc. Or, I wouldn’t really understand what the author was getting at.
Minds are really software systems. Intelligence means problem solving, and software means information stored in a memory system. The intelligence of any system is proportional to the quantity and quality of the software that exists in that system (for animals this means more learning and experience). For fixed hardware capabilities, you can trade off intelligence and time (smart/slow software, or stupid/fast software).
When you build a mind that runs at a different speed from the biological norm (like running it at 1usec ticks), you also have to make a universe for it to live in (with matching process durations). You can’t just throw minds into temporally mismatched worlds. Real-time for a mind needs to match real-time for the world you put that mind into.
There is also no advantage to being a biological/technological hybrid like the Star Trek Borg, because the technological part almost always functions vastly better (also has less maintenance and cost).
You could just fill that mind with enough mental legwork that it would process everything it a slower speed again, think more information that needs to be gathered from what it perceives ect...
(Rant)
I am not sure if this is related but this could possibly be why time seems to fly when you are intrested in something, you are mentally engaged and using your brain power on a more complex thing that takes longer, compared to when you are bored and doing something menial your brain is doing a task that takes very little brain power to finish and therefore it can be completed faster. To use your video example, I often find myself watching at 2x wishing it would go faster on something simple but when I really mentally digest what is being said I watch at normal speed or sometimes slower. Our brains can only use so much power at once and if you finding the information is coming at you to slow at either sucks, you know it already or you just aren't taking it in at it's fullest potential.
Ah, nothing better than coming home and seeing a new Isaac Arthur upload... and then even a Fermi Paradox episode. Thank you for being so awesome. Listening to almost every other Fermi Paradox argument on the internet they seem just so insanely naive and superficial after seeing your analysis.
Thanks!
"... the secret ingredient!" [slurm] (2:08)
Good point around 29:00 mark. From what I see, those who are older than 60 have far less interest in healthy life extension than people around my age.
Yooo mad respect Ike I noticed you are getting better with your enunciation please don’t be offended I had a nephew with the same impediment my mom got him a speech coach and he learned and grew out of it. I love the fact that you did not let it hold you back... get em Ike keep teaching and building.
We have become a "Stay at home "civilization" as well now, with all the quarantines and such.
Beautifully burning libraries of wasted energy and therefore potential. This concept gave my mind something to chew on and make my emotions churn at a really valuable time. Isaac, you're good enough at this that I always get what I expect, I always get what I need and want, and every once in a great while, I get something I never knew I needed from these videos. Amazing what a simple concept can do for a mediocre education and a bit of time, you genuinely have a talent, you are definitely doing what you were made to do, as far as I can see. Thanks!!!
You just keep em coming! Thanks for the early Christmas present Isaac Arthur!
Just found this page. And I love it!!. It's gonna take me a bit to watch them all.
I’ve grown to love your voice so much man. I don’t even notice the impediment at all. In fact I find it super soothing and easy to follow. I have no idea why
It's a strange thing, some folks finding it soothing, others it's literally like nails on a chalkboard. Tastes vary :)
Personally, I find Isaac's voice rather soothing, so it's always great to hear from him. Even though I'm relatively new to his channel, I've listened to all the episodes and some of them multiple times. 😊
@@isaacarthurSFIA I find it unusual, but in a good way.,
Same here
@@isaacarthurSFIA 1, Familiarity, 2, Whether or not the listener finds what you have to say to be interesting to begin with.
I am listening to your thoughts, not your voice; after a dozen or so videos, I barely even notice your speech impediment anymore.
Ours has just become a stay at home civilization
if you have immortals researching a way beat entropy in a billion years and noone figured out to send ships in space to research and measure somewhere else? i think if existence is key priority this seems unlikely to me.
The George R.R. Martin reference was hilarious!
Also, just recently discovered your channel. Someone mentioned it in the comments of a Scott Manley video. So glad I checked it out, I love discussion on these types of topics. Hope you keep up the incredible work!
Thanks!
I love your videos. I always play them before I go sleep. It's relaxing and interesting to hear as I drift into sleep
I actually do the same thing with audiobooks and have a few choice narrators I especially sleep well too, though amusingly I find my own voice a bit annoying.
Talking about not spreading out into space gives me chills
Just curious about the concept of non-biological civilizations deciding to create a sub nano scale worlds and empires. Is that feasible?
Probably only in a digital sense, of being able to run a whole person on a fingernail sized chip or something. You should be able to miniaturize people decently since our biology is not as compact as it probably could be but I doubt you could get a a genuine human level intelligence and body squeezed down to the sub-nanoscale. Carbon is probably the smallest atom you could really build with and it is .3 nm diameter, so can only squeeze about 30 into a cubic nanometer. That's not a lot to build a complex organism out of. Now a micrometer scale object has many billions of atoms to work with, and that is probably enough to build something fairly complex and intelligent.
What about a digital mind controlling a body made on the micro scale. That should be doable, right? It would be awesome to make a tiny little andorid walking around in house smaller than an ant.
omg, instead of 40 man raid on Onyxia's lair, itll be 40 man android team taking on the Kitchen Ant Queen...
I think the only way to do sub-nano scale civilizations is to basically give up on chemistry entirely and try to colonize dwarf or neutron stars instead. Apart from the higher densities of nuclear matter, quantum chromodynamics is generally more interesting than quantum electrodynamics and could possibly allow some really interesting constructs.
It's possible that Matrioshka brain-leaning civilizations would lean towards exploring that direction extensively, they would likely have a lot of incentive to keep pushing Moore's law further and further until they hit the Bekenstein bound.
It's possible that very advanced such civilizations would expand, but would only ever be interested in Neutron stars or black holes and not boring old low-density bodies with electrons in them, for the same reason that humans probably would not be very interested in colonizing the interstellar or the intergalactic medium.
Indeed, the ratio of a neutron star's density to the density of organic matter is somewhat comparable to the ratio of organic matter's density to the density of molecular clouds such as the Orion nebula. That is an incomprehensibly huge ratio. And nuclear matter is likely going to be a lot more complex than chemistry as well with quantum effects such as superfluidity and superconductivity (both electric, electroweak, and color superconductivity) surviving at ordinary (for neutron stars) temperatures.
Robert L. Forward explored the idea of life on a neutron star in his novel Dragon's Egg. I very good hard sci fi read.
Another great episode. I see that your channel is really taking off now, I'll be thrilled to see you with a million subscribers and growing.
I’m actually watching this while on a stay-at-home planetary pandemic.
“And basically to me, looking up at the night sky is like looking at a bunch of beautiful bonfires... Made of burning libraries, every sun in this galaxy which currently does not have any life on it is just wasting its energy. Energy that could be used to support life, and which I believe can, should and WILL be turned to that end by us...” (Isaac Arthur) An amazing quote. I will be using it.
9:58 advanced civilizations (not super advanced just modern enough)are stable number of population with more tendency to shrink than grow.
This is definitely true in modern times but I doubt it will hold forever. We may never see exponential growth on earth again after a certain point, but I doubt the shrinking will continue indefinitely.
@@mrboomward not in definitively, but will shrink after a point. Our biggest problem now is that low IQ, uneducated morons are reproducing as rabbits with full voting rights demanding equal outcomes. That takes away everybody's freedom and set back advancements for decades if not centuries. -"Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free."
I thank you for the thought provoking knowledge you have and your blending it with your style of "story telling". Yours are the best insightful digital media I watch.
16:46 "Personally, I think we're pretty awesome. I mean, not as awesome as a dinosaur, but pretty awesome." LOL!
"Which takes even longer than George R.R. Martin to put out a book." Coming to bookstores January 1, 2027 _The Winds of Winter_ LMAO!
Great video. Cool ideas explained clearly. I know precious few people who find ideas like these interesting.
Why would we stay in our solar system and never go to the stars (if I may re-phrase the question)? It's the
"yeah, it's cool" to "insanely expensive" ratio. I remember seeing once someone pointing out that we could build a Club Med on the top of Mount Everest...but no one is ever going to spend the money to do it. Someone could live out their Lando Calrissian fantasies by building a cloud city on Venus or one of the gas giants...but is anyone really going to spend the money to do it?
It is WAY too difficult to build a bubble of Earth's biosphere in space to go anywhere. If 'we' are ever going someplace out of our solar system, it will be as machines having uploaded our consciousness into computers or having made AI to be our representatives to the universe.
Good stuff. Most discussions on these topics are just silliness. I'm going to watch more of your vids.
Ai making sure that a human with no ethics doesn't make a nuclear bomb, Sounds backwards.
Wolther And thats why you gotta think past the machine
If the machine learns to defend from creating a bomb, it might use a bomb to kill and destroy said bomb lol
Or kill all the humans so the possability is 0.
See?
Wolther unless robots use Windows. You can never predict what Windows will do.
Even if I personally never leave the solar system, I still want humanity to spread out. I may never travel to Singapore, but I feel very content knowing there are people over there. Our cultures are very different, but that does not mean I don't feel a sense of camaraderie. In fact, I would find it quite unsettling to learn that humans only exist in the places I've actually been to, and every other place I've heard of is a lifeless nothing that people have lied to me about. I want humans-or whatever humans become-to go out, and explore the stars, EVEN IF I'm not one of them.
wow almost 30k subs. nice job!
What is truly amazing is that their are 30k people who can understand the higher end of his discourse.
To your point at 16:40 ish... Exactly! How many issues do we face here (energy consumption, pollution, resource scarcity, etc.) that we wouldn't improve upon by learning how to live in closed-cycle habitats on Mars, the Moon, or asteroid mining colonies. All the while setting us up for becoming more space-faring and even greater discovery.
5:21: 7) Because we can!
Your channel continues to impress! I look forward to a new episode every week and just wanted to say Thank You. Please keep up the excellent work and have a great New Year.
Thanks Jalal!
I reasonable number of people might be able to name Chris Hadfield
Probably, especially here since I've used a lot of clips of him demonstrating stuff.
The second one, fixing problems on earth, has less to do with hating on humanity itself, and more to do with fixing extreme inequalities caused by our current economic system and associated governmental institutions. Even if we get more materials from space, the inequality will make it so people don’t have political autonomy, which means that the exploration of space and how go we about doing it/what our goals are becomes nothing but the playground of the super rich. Once AI has reached a sufficient strength, it will be fundamentally impossible for people to fix this inequality because the logistics required for a people’s movement will be able to categorically be overcome (some would say we’ve already reached this point.) The wealthy seem to be always able to shift the goalpost. There is always something more they can buy or do for themselves, so these inequalities wont be meaningfully addressed even as we get more resources. In other words, this is not about individual human failings, it is about fixable systemic ones that will influence the form our space exploration will take. Contrary to the salesmanship, space exploration as it currently exists has little to do with the majority of humanity. It makes people FEEL like it is and will be sold as such because finding a way to “inspire” the oppressed is a good way to keep them in line. Science and space exploration is awesome. But how much does it do for you if you’re living paycheck to paycheck, have no labor rights, healthcare, etc.? It’s a nice distraction that is a symptom of the system that has put you in such a position.
In that sense it is propaganda. It claims that it represents the success of humanity, but it represents the success of large capital owners and their pet project. Technology can always be prioritized before humanitarian development because there is ALWAYS more tech development to be done. Sometimes we need to pause (not completely but comparatively) and focus on humanitarian development instead. If the boons of tech are distributed so unequally, they don’t seem to be boons at all.
I feel like somebody so just going to call me a commie for this or something.
The problem with massive population size is there is not enough resources to go around to give everyone a nice lifestyle.
Half of world's wealth is controlled by 1% of the population, lucky for me I'm in this group.
70% of the global adult population have wealth of less than $10,000 with the lifestyle to match.
How does this reality get solved in this vision of limitless population growth through out the universe. It would be an abomination to have vast galactic spanning ghettos of the 99% dreaming of the day they get lucky and join the ranks of the 1%-for most a fantasy.
Dukky Drake These discussion are all based on elitist dreams. That's why the world we live in is full on suffering. These people dream of how great live would be if they only had a bit more without actually living today. Their ultimate goal is to end humanity and they don't even know it themselves. If they do they deny it.
Dukky Drake As we become more advanced maybe all the poor will be as well off as the middle class today, rich still dwarfing it undoubtedly but not a crime against human rights
Gabe Merritt
See my post. There isn't anywhere enough shit on Earth as is to keep the middle class we have yet alone get more. So I'm sorry to tell you that the only way for us is down or out no matter what the techno nuts tell you. THE END IS NEAR!
I doubt it, humans are terrible to eachother, but I do believe that we will continue to advance indefinitely and drag the rest of humanity along. (Unless we end up killing everyone in the process) I'm not sure if the any of earth's life, not necessary for humans survival, will survive it though.
Gabe Merritt
And what you said is why we're doomed. It's all necessary that's how we got here. And by the time we all learn that it will be too late. Good luck!
I love your videos. Thanks for all your hard work and effort into making this real.
I would stay at home unless there is wifi or lots of hot chicks
Theres both in space. Butt loads of both.
😋
@7:30 "Because there is no stealth in space, and you cannot hide." - Has Isaac Arthur never heard of Romulan cloaking devices?
"Life doesn't emorge too often."
mberg1974 it's emoage not emorage.
Scandinavian defense. ☺️
I often wonder if the solution to the Fermi Paradox is a mixture of reasons: Intelligence/sapience being pretty rare to begin with and spread over wide distances, possibly obscured from us by the bulk of the galaxy; some of it too young to have done much, some preferring to stay "home" and not having had time or inclination to go full Dyson Sphere in their home system, some unable to get off their homeworld (whether or not they have the ability to make technology).
You're quite right. We only need *one* very expansionist intelligent species to have emerged at the time dinosaurs roamed the Earth to have a growing bubble of Dyson Spheres that we should be able to detect, but if that hasn't happened yet, then there's plenty of scope for intelligent life to have evolved elsewhere but is currently invisible to us because those guys are still in their bronze age, those guys are still just at the dawn of their industrial revolution, those guys have had radio for the last 300 years but they're 600 light years away, those guys have only just begun colonising their own star system, those guys live on a water world, those guys can't even detect the stars through their thick atmosphere, those ones have a gravity well akin to that of Jupiter, those ones don't have expansionist ideals and so forth.
I don't think that there's *one* reason, I think it's a combination of many.
I think the time lag argument for staying on Earth (or at least close by) is a really good one. Not an issue if you transplanted a person from, say, the 18th or 19th Century into a solar-system wide civilisation - they'd be astounded by how convenient a mere half-hour delay in communications between Earth and Mars is compared with communication between the Americas and Europe of their day. For my son, who swears like a trooper at a *second's* lag in an internet download, and anyone else who's used to near instantaneous communication, it'd probably feel like hell.
Hostile colonies is another good point - and pretty much the core premise of a lot of the initial conflict in _The Expanse_ series.
Frankly, if I had my life extended to the point that I had no predictable natural death (ignoring the possibility of hostile actions against me or a colossal screw up on my part) and we went all out on building a Dyson Swarm around the Earth, I could well imagine that even if I spent my entire existence travelling from habitat to habitat, moon base to moon base, I would never ever run out of new things to see and experience as each of those places would have changed by the time I got back to them a second or third time. Meanwhile, the available things for me to look at and experience - art, music, books, videos (or virtual realities) - would never stop growing beyond my capacity to see them all.
This, I think, is one of the greatest Fermi filters of all - you get to the point you've got a fraction of a percentage of a Dyson Sphere and a few scattered habs around the various moons and asteroids in your own system and you've got no actual need to go anywhere else to occupy your time, even if you're immortal.
These, and other, reasons for "stay at home civilisations" could contribute to "part" of the reason we haven't seen alien intelligence yet. I don't think it is the only factor, but it can't be ignored.
question, what is that accent
It's a speech impediment that prohibits him from pronouncing R. I forget what it's called but the name of the condition starts with an R.
xiaomu It's Elmerfuddian.
It's quite common, and getting rid of it takes soooo much effort. Been helping a friend practice rolling their Rs.
It's called rhotacism, or de-rhotacism, the terms doesn't get used much because those of us with it can't pronounce the word. :) It's a very ballpark term though, R's are usually considered the hardest letter to pronounce and there's a handful of unrelated reasons that can mess up pronunciation. Amusingly I have 3 of them. Speech therapist's nightmare :)
How's that going?
First time I found one of your videos.
Was tempted by the subject matter, stayed for your passion in making them, then stayed longer just to listen for where exactly your flaws in pronunciation happened and why.
I ask out of interests, and because I want to help my friend more, and my approaches have only had limited success so far. (which is still pretty cool~)
the answer to the Fermi paradox is about what we are, what we have been and what is required of us to become in order to even qualify as detectable to extrasolar life... (we are almost certainly not detectable to civilizations less advanced than our own)
the way I see it life doesn't hedge any bet, it branches into variations to ensure something makes it through, as such a dampening effect of incongruous traits is to be expected...
the inherent vastness and seemingly insurmountable scales intrinsic to this obstacle predicate having a nature that meets the requirements of it.
leaving our perfectly suitable rock bubble and actually establishing even just intra solar system extraplanetary permanent homesteading is totally beyond the means of any individual...
it is also genuinely beyond the means of any group despite the recent news feed about exactly such a reality.... it may prove to become plausible, even soon...
but it will require at least some of our species to become the most collectively effective, and cooperative creatures ever seen.
the question is how do the rest of the organisms thst encompass life relate to such an emergent reality...
I think it is fair to say odds are 80% against, simply because life doesn't put all its eggs in one basket even amongst members of a species...
I have the belief that the continued success of any colonization effort will require a degree of appreciation, trust, and communal intent the human race has been unable to consistently attain or maintain.
as technology improves the associated cost diminishes and becomes less and less prohibitive, but as the technology improves the likelihood of it providing means to expand increases alongside it's ability to create an effective illusion that is more enticing to an individual than any idea of actually establishing extraplanetary colonies.
the laziness overtakes, the bath is warm and we clearly already have 1foot in...
so an inner space supplants the idea of actually being a starfaring civilization... because it is simply just as real if not more, and 100000000 more fun. From the individual perspective it's easy to understand why we don't see other extraterrestrial civilizations coming out to play...
it's the same reason human beings are not hanging out by the billions in Antarctica... it's cold, dangerous and just not fun in reality....
sure the white snow is pretty but when going out in your skin is almost certain death, only a very few with specific motivation venture there..
even in relatively temperate climes people would rather watch RUclips...
Wabbits
Ruer Coz All i could think of was this dudes accent and then i scroll down to this. Well played. 10/10
Ruer Coz You got me. Now it's all I can hear.
Fuck, I was just about to type "Ehhh, what's up, doc?" :D
Wabbits fom Orth
Wabbits from Orth emorge in the walaxy!
Great video Isaac, it really got poetic towards the end and honestly I got a little choked up thinking about the end.
Personally with the rates in fertility that I see happening I don't think we will ever get to a population large enough to fill a dyson swarm even if we become immortal by the end of the century. Without population growth I don't see a vast human empire forming, just some localized splinter groups settling other stars and groups of immortal explorers that will travel though the galaxy and eventually the universe without ever putting down roots or increasing their numbers.
Well I'm sure there will be some aberrations and some growth, but they might be few enough and far enough between that the heat death of the universe will occur before a population at this level of growth doubles more than once in size.
I do share your hope that this isn't the case, I just don't think it's the most likely outcome.
Current fertility problems are largely limited to Western Civilization, and is more indicative of cultural stagnation, than it is a natural byproduct of technological development.
While the trend is certainly alarming, its a basic truth that you have to actually believe in the value of your own culture, before you would have much drive to propagate it; and the West is currently in the grips of a massive identity crisis, to the point where it is largely at war with itself.
Whatever your opinion of the various conflicting visions might be, the low birth rates are a symptom of the cultural problems, which cannot be addressed without a broad social consensus.
This is interesting as fuck, but that's one weird accent you got there, mate. Where are you from? :)
Alexander Inget that's a speech impediment, not an accent.
Sans Handlebars Hard to tell for a non-native english speaker. The world is a big place :)
Alexander Inget. This dude's got a China accent/pronunciations. i can tell immediately. LOL !!!
Sounds like I'm listening to a space documentary narrated by Elmer Fudd.
Wizard Clip Audio. LMAO !! Be verwee verwee quiet. I'm twying to narwate about space alweeins. LOL !!!
I'm loving this new RUclips algorithm, it's giving me great suggestions. Great video, you got a new subscriber!
It does seem to be referring lots of new folks to this episode, view count is about 50% higher than normal. Anyway welcome to the channel, hope you enjoy the content :)
I wanna stay on orth and explo uanus
Additional potential reason both to stay at home and to leave: religious beliefs. It's not at all difficult to imagine a society which feels it is their deity's will that they expand to fill the universe, or another that feels their deity gave them everything they need on their one little rock.
Isaac,
[I know it's nearly six years later, but wth...]
A couple of factors against becoming interstellar (or intrasolar) come to mind:
1. You mentioned those living in a utopia having trouble being motivated. I think this lack of motivation may cover a much broader spectrum. Today people complain that we should expend our effort and resources to conquer world hunger and poverty. There is always some further benefit one who isn't poor or hungry can attain and enjoy, but how much is required before it can be considered utopia? Over the last 80-100 years, the level of prosperity has grown so much and so quickly that, except for those who don't have it, this IS a utopia. You don't have to look far back in your own history to see it. For me to be fixated on "solving poverty" of others implies we've found the solution. Have we? Isn't that being complacent? Why are we not racing to increasing higher levels of achievement as a means of pulling everyone up with us?
2. It's just too difficult.
I just found your channel, and I have to say it is my new favorite! This is the first time I have ever heard anyone (other than the occasional Tyson speech, or similar) discuss the mental gymnastics I have engaged in since my mid-teens. I am really looking forward to watching all of your videos! Thanks!
What a fantastic channel. Thanks for making these videos Isaac!
Thanks! I'm glad you're enjoying them!
Looking forward to those first contact videos. I'm slowly working through all of your other uploads now.
Most of the Solar System has been explored in my lifetime. We, as a species, have come quite far, thanks to the ingenuity and ambition of our peoples.
I think it's impossible for humanity to be alone in this universe, but until I'm proven wrong, I'll always believe that humanity is unique and that this universe is ours to conquer.
This is why The Economist once published a story about the "end" of the Space Age. The odds and arguments against a classic space-operatic expansion into space are pretty formidable.
Isaac arthur will be huge hit in the next century, when people start realizing the wisdom in these videos. His grandchildren will be earning lots of martian real estate as a royalty for his work!
I actually think IF there is a Fermi paradox this is just the most likely explanation. Traveling in space and doing the super advanced things we think could exist like Dyson whatevers are just too time consuming, hard and not worth it so most cultures, if they even have space travel, do what we do, send some unmanned craft around to explore and take some pretty pictures.
17:20 There is also the issue of "what is a problem" There was an alien on Babylon 5 who was quite impressed with "Down Below" (the "slums" of the station) because it showed humans as unafraid to deal with the "inferior" member of its own species.
16:45 "Personally I think we are pretty awesome" - Thank you for being you Issac - I love it! and your videos and space and humanity and the universe!!!
Great episode as usual, Arthur. As you said, it's not exactly the way you or the audience thinks, but it is a very good and fair discussion of the reasons. You pass the ideological turing test (A thought experiment based on the turing test, where A tries to imitate an ideology he doesn't believe in, B actually believes it and C tries to figure out who is the real ideologue and who is the imitator)
Thanks Prakash, I had to toss quite a few scripts on this one before I felt I hit a fair tone, and even then I was worried my own biases might be saturating my outlook too much. Good to hear I kept them contained decently :)
I think that we will stay at home (or in our immediate vicinity) and most others will too. And those who are too expansionist are basically a form of grey goo and any other civilisation will view them as such. And if there are civilisations near us - it would make sense for us to conclude a treaty against any of such grey goo civilisations to actually actively prevent any attempt of wide colonisation. And maybe there are already such aliens and treaties around us - and they watch us from the comfort of their homes, assessing the level of threat we and other developing civilisations pose.
Our minds change every second throughout our lives. I am not the same exact person as my 5-year-old self, for example. If we figure out immortality, our minds will still change neuron by neuron, or maybe bit by bit, until we are completely unrelated to the person we once were. Now we could solve this "problem" but I don't think it's a problem at all. We wouldn't want the same people hanging around for eternity but we wouldn't want to kill them either.
That thumbnail when I first saw it, I thought it was one or the most beautiful thing I have ever seen.
Now we know why the aliens are staying home. They probably got too scared to leave after a pandemic wave.
WE LOVE YOU ISAAC KEEP THE FANTASTIC VIDEOS COMING
lol'd how well the delivery of that analogy was, "we can walk and chew our bubblegum," brilliant in the context of what we're talking about here in this topic.
damn rights we can, now we just need to give the president's and and prime minister's there memos and some bubblegum n sneakers.
Wouldn't a post-scarcity civilization be so constructed it could perpetuate itself indefinitely, at least in logistical terms?
The only problem is the psychological effect a complete absence of necessities, and therefore purpose, it would have on the individuals inside such a society.
I used to love The History Channel and The Discovery Channel. And do you remember when TLC used to be The Learning Channel? There even used to be some cool stuff on the local access cable channel from time to time. All of it ruined by reality TV...
Yes, back when educational channels had educational material :)
"Humanity is awesome, not as awesome as a dinosaur, but pretty awesome." -Isaac Arthur
The problem with assuming that humanity will move beyond the solar system is that without faster than light travel, everything is too far away. People may cite the past saying that Europe colonized most of the world and that it took a few months to get to where they want to go. But that's the thing, it took months, not years. The Mayflower journey took 66 days (which roughly translates to a little over two months) but the nearest star other than our own is 4 light years away. Many solar systems which we know about are so far away that it would take nearly a lifetime to get to.
However, a dyson civilization may send automated fleets to gather resources from other systems and bring them back to their own system for consumption. Those fleets, when harvesting matter, may leave off traces so it doesn't necessarily answer the fermi paradox.
You've already demonstrated that the solar system has the resources to support a population too large to be counted for longer than the universe should be able to exist. I couldn't imagine any need to go further. I'm not saying it won't happen, but speculation about it would be pointless even thousands of generations from now.
7) Not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win.
I'd just like to point out that Platinum actually IS a metal we need, not just want. It's used industrially in a great many chemical processes.
On a different subject, waiting for your favorite author is probably not going to seem like a few million years, as they will likely be similarly accelerated. Indeed, you might find them finishing the next couple of books before you get a reply from your friend on Mercury who you just emailed about his last book.
Generation ships have two additional problems that I don't think you've covered.
1) The ship itself would have to be as marvelous place to live. To leave it for the vagaries of living on a planet.
2) A utopian experiment with mice produced some very worrying results. The best I can do is ask you to look up "Universe 25".
I maintain that humanity has a lot to learn before we get TOO busy in space. I do not think we're very awesome right now, but there is potential and we are making progress.
Reasons to go out 3 and 4 seem to be the soundest. And my mother is a big believer in reason not to go out number 2. she gets upset at the thought of people making a mess of earth via pollution, litter and habitat destruction, then going to mars and doing it again.
These older ones have a more serious tone. I like it. None of that giggling at your own jokes, shit.
Even with faster than light travel, communication would still be a problem. Say going FTL requires a mega structure, or "warp gate" due to the huge energy needed(mass of a planet) to fold or warp space. Without a gate on the other side there won't be a way to get back word of the mission. So a jump to a system 12 light years away means earth waits 12 years to get any word. A gate could be built on the other side but that would take hundreds of years. Unless you sent a 2nd gate ahead of time which is an option and only a few decades to set it up. Oddly I'm very much confident it could be done with warp gates, only one per system would be needed, in orbit around the largest planet. Each gate would be universally set to an exact and precise timing(maybe using a collection of common quasars and pulsars. The timings to prevent any warp bubbles from colliding. Said gate would have to be very large, to produce and adsorb the amount of energy needed, hundreds of miles in size to as large as a moon. The problem of course comes back to the destination. The 2nd gate is not just a way back, it "pops" the bubble of the incoming ship and adsorbs the energy+radiation from it(using magnetism to channel it into the very large planet it orbits). The plus side is a part of said energy would be recycled. 200 years to build two gates(at once) One gate is launched at ~0.2c and reaches it's destination in 70 years, sets up, and sends back data and a green light. 12 years later the message is received and the first probes, and then craft; are sent to the new system, But this time another 2 gates are half built, by the time those gates reach their system 2 more are built. So in about 600 years we have 6 solar systems including our own in an interstellar network. I may not be a paper holder, but I do love space travel and scifi
English is only my third language, and your speech impediment is helping me learn unconventional ways to pronounce english.
That's in addition to your content being absolutely stellar, pun intended.
:) Thanks Viha
My personal answer for the Fermi paradox is that all civilizations are Stay At Home civilizations.
I'm doubtful as to whether it is possible for a species to outbred the resources of its home star system. Especially with tech to use energy to manipulate matter at the molecular or atomic level (Star Trek replicators). I mean... A whole star? That's on 24/7, in every direction? That's a honkin' amount of energy!!
The costs and additional challenges of leaving your little star island and travelling light-years through cosmic radiation bathed quiet, lonely, cold interstellar space, may be far more than any technological wizardry needed to draw just a little more of the home star's power.