What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen? | Vernor Vinge
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- Опубликовано: 21 окт 2024
- Technology acceleration is like what happens approaching the singularity in the center of a black hole--- everything is transformed utterly and unpredictably. That metaphor was invented by science fiction writer Vernor Vinge in 1980s and has entered standard usage as a way of thinking about the near future. In this talk Vinge challenges his own idea, investigating scenarios of "a human-scaled world with long time horizons," and how that might play out over ten or twenty thousand years.
"What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?" was given on February 15, 02007 as part of Long Now's Seminar series. The series was started in 02003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking from some of the world's leading thinkers. The Seminars take place in San Francisco and are curated and hosted by Stewart Brand. To follow the talks, you can:
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Wonderful lecture. Vinge saw further and earlier than most. Watching this shortly after his passing.
thank you for making this available on youtube
31:22 "a better imitation of freedom than has ever existed" is fascinating
does anyone have any idea if Vinge is working on a 4th Zones of thought book? i would certainly love a conclusion to his story
We humans do not wish a conclusion from Vinge's work, we will not be pleased with the result.
Before Singularity, fetch water, chop wood. After Singularity, fetch water, chop wood.
Before Singularity, stop the Singularity. After, fetch water, chop wood.
Such an underrated comment
idk if that's a reference that I don't get, but... it strikes me as true, regardless. 2 years closer.
The necessity for the authorities to provide the people with the "illusion of freedom". ~31:30
32:10. if world "net good intention" could be plotted, a scenario where something caused it to start increasing could become exponentially increasing. Imagine us in the room full of dynamite with nothing to focus on but thinking about how it could detonate and proactively preventing it. The only thing preventing this is "evil" motives like greed, absence of love, etc.? But aren't those relative?
One man’s villain is another man’s hero… this is the automation of “might makes right”
Perhaps the Singularity is already long past, and the cosmic microwave background is its echo.
You are partially correct. The Singularity exists both in the past, the very beginning of the universe, and in the distant future, there very end of the universe. Which means whatever reality it is right now in between is merely a simulation generated by the Singularity.
We jump into the singularity to end the current simulation to be whatever we want in the next.
An n-way crash. Reminds me of finding bullet collisions from our American civil war. Many bullet collisions of two men firing at one another where the men fire at exactly the same time where both men are saved by the bullet's collisions at mid field where if no collision both men die by a slight collisionless timing of firing slightly before and after where both men go down to death. The n-collision where another man fires at the same target and all three bullets meet mid field saving both firing parties by bullet collisions. Just shows the amount of lead in the air at one time and the amount of dead when two groups meet with arms fully primed to shoot to death the opponent. Mad (mutually assured destruction), is so ridiculous as to make the very component of initiating firing the bullet a non-starter because both parties die just like the two men would die in the civil war where both men have the capability to kill the opponent. With the abomination of desecration available to both parties no one starts because everything fails at the same time it is unleashed. The time will come when the singularity might grasp the capability by two different parties to produce at the same time super human logical thought that fights against each other beyond human scope. Doubtful but possible. More likely one unit becomes superior and the singularity happens with one vector.
Ive boght your book but life happened... i just wanna listen now in my dark time. Deepness in the sky. That was the won. On par with egan and brin. Amazing stuff
Man that's my favourite sf novel. Even inspired my major choice and thesis subject.
I'm beginning to favour data storage and retrieval being more important than energy generated/consumed, as a mark of advanced civilisation.
Changed humanity forever cant go back, or at least unwilling to go back
Recorded Feb 02007
Vernor, you are a brilliant man, but I think maybe the anti-Tony-Robbins also.
I spit out my drink....
severe burn
@@mk3ferret great! and sorry. lol
0:25 Whats 02007?
015 years ago.
58:57 whats framing ham?
I think he's referring to a Framingham Risk Score applied to civilization issues as opposed to just cardiovascular risk where it's applied in humans.
no cell phones are not as positive if we all had privacy and control of our data then it would be net good its being abused by every corporation
The singularity already happened I think, it was the internet
Then you don't understand what the technological singularity actually means.
@@pervyboy69 explain it to me
@@sterlingsinclair5327 When ai intelligence is greater than mans it can then improve itself and there will be an exponential explosion of the ai's advancement and of the new technological discoveries made. That hasn't happened yet, A super intelligent ai will be man's last invention as the ai will be better than man at inventing new technologies.
@@pervyboy69 oooohhh I see what your saying, AI that builds things we never could. That sounds like a recipie for disaster though 🤔 that would make us obsolete
@@sterlingsinclair5327 I know, its very scary....once the ai has exceeded man in intelligence we are at its mercy.
If you just listen,( no graphic )
Who else can't help seeing Brains from The Thunderbirds.
What if a Singularity happened and no one noticed?
IOW maybe it already did! ;*[}
By definition, it's what has been happening since the Industrial Revolution; it's, like everything, a gradual process...
The Singularity existed already, because it transcends time itself. In fact the current reality is a simulation from the singularity.
@@Kenny-tl7ir Got any evidence for this bizarre claim?
@@black_eagle Conformal Cyclic Cosmology by Sir Roger Penrose, one of the founders of Black Hole information theory. The universe in the distant future is identical to the Universe in the distant past. Which means whatever it is that we are Engineering ourselves into existed at the beginning of this universe. It makes sense because when consciousness is uploaded, we lose our physical bodies and turn into pure digital information, effectively exchanging mass for energy, which in its purest form are Photons with zero mass. Zero mass particles travel at the speed of light and thus do not experience time in line with General Relativity thus such particles or quanta exist in the very same moment in the Big Bang as well as the distant end of this universe. If the singularity happens this century, then the end of this current universe will only be a moment away from when we uploaded ourselves.
Closet malthusian
Would we get a refund for all the suffering?
Yes, instant death for all organic intelligence
Interesting, but in 2023 well out of date.
This guy ego is so intense that he is so proud that psychopaths are following his fictional book, they all have lost what makes humans different from machines!
They're very easily manipulated
Just think of all the so called modern geniuses that were played like fiddles by Epstein
It's only a what if question. Don't make too much out of it. Don't be so serious.
How do you know if it’s his ego or your own that you are talking about ?