Thank you for the very informative video. The unemployment for both US and Canada confirmed a surge back upwards starting 2023 November. These surges along with inflation look strong and is very concerning. Usually this causes S&P to pullback downwards. Because of the scale of S&P cycle we are currently in, it is going to look big for most people. There's a couple instances in the past that was similar to what's happening now. The two closest ones are 1972 May and 1976 May where even though unemployment surged very high it only caused S&P to stabilize on a good sized pullback sideways then went on another bullrun. S&P is essentially composed of the same strength pattern formations/algorithms/behavior that occur over and over again. From time to time, these mathematical based candle formation replicas occur. This allows an entity or person to be able to anticipate market direction and future economic/candle formations. If it doesn't confirm a collapse by January next year, then it's a lesser risk to ride it back upwards for another year before a bigger pullback occurs.
Thanks for the insights. It sounds like you've looked a lot into this current pattern that's forming from a historical perspective. High unemployment and high inflation can lead to stagflation but even then stocks may not drop much. I think when in doubt, don't bet against the market.
You should look into mortgage delinquencies and credit card delinquencies, I've see the tabulated data but I'd love to look at some charts. PS - Immigration lowered GDP per capita, and effectively lowered the quality of life for everyone.
Both mortgage and credit card delinquencies have been on the rise in recent months. I wouldn't worry about it yet. Both are still relatively low by historical measures. But definitely need to keep an eye on things in case they get much worse.
A lot of people thought it would happen last year. But because of higher than normal levels of immigration the numbers got skewed. But it just delays the inevitable because the underlying issue of quickly raising interest rates by 5% after a decade of record low rates have not been addressed by the economy.
Thanks Liquid !!!!.......I really do hope Canada brings back its manufacturing industry. We cant just rely on a service economy going forward.
Me too. There is more value in manufacturing than in services, especially considering the potential to sell what we make globally.
Thank you for the very informative video.
The unemployment for both US and Canada confirmed a surge back upwards starting 2023 November.
These surges along with inflation look strong and is very concerning. Usually this causes S&P to pullback downwards. Because of the scale of S&P cycle we are currently in, it is going to look big for most people. There's a couple instances in the past that was similar to what's happening now. The two closest ones are 1972 May and 1976 May where even though unemployment surged very high it only caused S&P to stabilize on a good sized pullback sideways then went on another bullrun.
S&P is essentially composed of the same strength pattern formations/algorithms/behavior that occur over and over again. From time to time, these mathematical based candle formation replicas occur.
This allows an entity or person to be able to anticipate market direction and future economic/candle formations. If it doesn't confirm a collapse by January next year, then it's a lesser risk to ride it back upwards for another year before a bigger pullback occurs.
Thanks for the insights. It sounds like you've looked a lot into this current pattern that's forming from a historical perspective. High unemployment and high inflation can lead to stagflation but even then stocks may not drop much. I think when in doubt, don't bet against the market.
Great video liquid! Thank you for sharing the unemployment data and your analysis
My pleasure. :) Thanks for watching.
You should look into mortgage delinquencies and credit card delinquencies, I've see the tabulated data but I'd love to look at some charts.
PS - Immigration lowered GDP per capita, and effectively lowered the quality of life for everyone.
Both mortgage and credit card delinquencies have been on the rise in recent months. I wouldn't worry about it yet. Both are still relatively low by historical measures. But definitely need to keep an eye on things in case they get much worse.
Sahm said last year she thinks it'll trigger but we'll not get the recession
A lot of people thought it would happen last year. But because of higher than normal levels of immigration the numbers got skewed. But it just delays the inevitable because the underlying issue of quickly raising interest rates by 5% after a decade of record low rates have not been addressed by the economy.
Lol bro we have been in a recession since 2020
That's how a lot of people feel.
Recession needed to tame inflation unfortunately. Seems like they're steering things that way on purpose.
I wonder how deep they want the recession to be. I wouldn't be surprised to see 7% unemployment in a few months.