A crash? A long slow decline. Over the last 15 years since the financial crisis, house building has been 90% of 3/4 bedroom family homes. Leaving a glut of large family homes, and not enough single or non family homes. Couple this with a demographic surge in older people seeking to downsize. The rise in prices over the last 10 years can be mostly blamed on inflation. The houses haven't gone up in value, the money has been watered down with money printing and thus pushing prices for everything up. Houses aren't becoming more valuable, they are just more expensive.
I'm in property and have been hearing about this crash since 2015. Like you, a slowing but no crash. We still have far too few houses and far too few being built.
I've been saying for ages that predictions of housing price crash are utter nonsense. Of course nothing goes up in a straight line but as long as demand vastly outstrips supply, which with our current population crisis, it does and will for the foreseeable future, prices will continue to rise.
This is the same type of person who would have said in 2008 that there will be no housing crash because the situation is different then the last crash… data is king.
I saw the Skipton 100% mortgage add on a RUclips video and now just saw a NatWest 95% and. Now tell me this isn't the final hurrah before the bubble bursts and the banks own it all.
It's high earners who are applying for unemployment. Yeah! They won't have a problem paying their mortgages on unemployment. It appears to be a white collar recession. It's hard to find good jobs during a recession. It could take years to get back to the income they had....if ever.
With a shortage of housing and less homes being put on the market (as home owners are sticking not twisting) even if interest rates go up further the market will just stall. Lets not forget that with more people working from home countryside properties may be able to sustain high prices as city workers may move to the country. This might help town\city prices to drop slightly
Hey man ,hope the day is going well. Great video as always, I wanted to flag something though . When you do a "this video" and point to link another video,nothing appears. This could very well be due to my phone and not impact anyone else... Not a major thing but it's stopping me from bingeing your stuff !
Oh, don't know what's happening there, just checked here and it seems to be working on my phone and browser. Here's the video I meant ruclips.net/video/Sjq2gLnHYJE/видео.html
I think houses will move from landlords hands into lowner occupiers hands esorcially if the latest ( again ) trend of 100% mortgages catches on. This is a good thing imho, prices will akways go up in the long run but we might be in for a small correction or at least stability in the prices. Investors will need to look elsewhere, msybe stocks and shares which will help stcks crashing too so win win. Interest rates increasing and tax changes are forcing this situation as intended.
@@ThatFinanceShow yep, I had one which was my old home, lived in it for 20 years and rented it out for 10,mortgage paid off and was nice to have that steady income but eventually I got fed up with bad tenants wrecking it all the time so sold up. Guy up the road from me has 60 odd all mortgaged to the hilt , he never seems very happy though tbh, might have money coming in but a lot of stress and imho is taking away kids chances of owning their own.
Let the unemployment spike mate.. that is when the real fun will begin.. People are in debt up to the brim.. And the kind of people who are more likely to loose jobs are the high earners.. we have seen nothing yet. If you think there won't be any repercussions of raising base rate by over 400% in such a short span of time, think again.. People who are buying right now are the ones who have a short memory and only seen last 12-14 years of quantitative easing, thinking house prices can only go up or maybe can have a small dip..
You basically just argued against a strawman by redefining what you you think they think a "crash" is. I havent heard anyone say the decline will reverse prices 10 years. In my mind 20% decreases in average house prices is a crash. House prices dont "crash" like that stock market. Prices move slowly
When liquidity is being squeezed out of all markets interesting things happen. The dominoes are starting to fall starting with the banks. Investors fall next. 25 percent of Florida is investor owned or perhaps more. I assume the recession will be after that. This is what history shows us for the past 100 years
What do you think? Is a crash coming?
A crash? A long slow decline.
Over the last 15 years since the financial crisis, house building has been 90% of 3/4 bedroom family homes.
Leaving a glut of large family homes, and not enough single or non family homes.
Couple this with a demographic surge in older people seeking to downsize.
The rise in prices over the last 10 years can be mostly blamed on inflation.
The houses haven't gone up in value, the money has been watered down with money printing and thus pushing prices for everything up.
Houses aren't becoming more valuable, they are just more expensive.
Hi TFS - could you define what you mean by a house price crash? That way we’ll be able to determine whether there has been one - thanks!
It's already underway. Prices have fallen in 7 of the last 8 months....
I'm in property and have been hearing about this crash since 2015. Like you, a slowing but no crash. We still have far too few houses and far too few being built.
I've been saying for ages that predictions of housing price crash are utter nonsense. Of course nothing goes up in a straight line but as long as demand vastly outstrips supply, which with our current population crisis, it does and will for the foreseeable future, prices will continue to rise.
This is the same type of person who would have said in 2008 that there will be no housing crash because the situation is different then the last crash… data is king.
So you think it will crash?
I saw the Skipton 100% mortgage add on a RUclips video and now just saw a NatWest 95% and. Now tell me this isn't the final hurrah before the bubble bursts and the banks own it all.
Yeah interesting isn’t it, seems we have short term memory on these things
Great channel. Keep up the good work!
Thanks Diego
more of my friends than ever are trying to buy homes even with higher interest. people just cant see the point in rent
It's high earners who are applying for unemployment. Yeah! They won't have a problem paying their mortgages on unemployment.
It appears to be a white collar recession. It's hard to find good jobs during a recession. It could take years to get back to the income they had....if ever.
Very good, Tom. Nobody is making any more land. I'm with you, I don't see any pending disaster, but what do I know. Production is niiiice, btw 👍
Thanks David!
He's back! Great video, hope all is well :)
All good Jay, hope you’re good too my friend
Hair
😂
With a shortage of housing and less homes being put on the market (as home owners are sticking not twisting) even if interest rates go up further the market will just stall. Lets not forget that with more people working from home countryside properties may be able to sustain high prices as city workers may move to the country. This might help town\city prices to drop slightly
Yep lot of sense in this Robbie
We’re getting done up the Gary
Who’s Gary? 😂
He is back
Feels good!
Love this guy 🎉🎉🎉🎉
And he loves you.
Hey man ,hope the day is going well.
Great video as always, I wanted to flag something though . When you do a "this video" and point to link another video,nothing appears. This could very well be due to my phone and not impact anyone else... Not a major thing but it's stopping me from bingeing your stuff !
Oh, don't know what's happening there, just checked here and it seems to be working on my phone and browser. Here's the video I meant ruclips.net/video/Sjq2gLnHYJE/видео.html
Did u ever proceed with that holiday rental you talked about ?
Yes but it all went a bit pear shaped. I’ll be doing videos on it all soon!
I think houses will move from landlords hands into lowner occupiers hands esorcially if the latest ( again ) trend of 100% mortgages catches on.
This is a good thing imho, prices will akways go up in the long run but we might be in for a small correction or at least stability in the prices.
Investors will need to look elsewhere, msybe stocks and shares which will help stcks crashing too so win win.
Interest rates increasing and tax changes are forcing this situation as intended.
Hope you’re right Nigel, I don’t mind property investing but I do struggle when people have vast portfolios of them
@@ThatFinanceShow yep, I had one which was my old home, lived in it for 20 years and rented it out for 10,mortgage paid off and was nice to have that steady income but eventually I got fed up with bad tenants wrecking it all the time so sold up.
Guy up the road from me has 60 odd all mortgaged to the hilt , he never seems very happy though tbh, might have money coming in but a lot of stress and imho is taking away kids chances of owning their own.
Let the unemployment spike mate.. that is when the real fun will begin.. People are in debt up to the brim.. And the kind of people who are more likely to loose jobs are the high earners.. we have seen nothing yet. If you think there won't be any repercussions of raising base rate by over 400% in such a short span of time, think again.. People who are buying right now are the ones who have a short memory and only seen last 12-14 years of quantitative easing, thinking house prices can only go up or maybe can have a small dip..
You basically just argued against a strawman by redefining what you you think they think a "crash" is. I havent heard anyone say the decline will reverse prices 10 years. In my mind 20% decreases in average house prices is a crash. House prices dont "crash" like that stock market. Prices move slowly
I don’t know, some people have been suggesting a complete collapse, a lost decade I’ve seen it called.
House prices only go up.
Ermmm....I wish.
It will keep going up forever. Let’s all buy now!
I think short term could be a struggle but long term yep, houses will be worth more in 20 years than today
When liquidity is being squeezed out of all markets interesting things happen. The dominoes are starting to fall starting with the banks. Investors fall next. 25 percent of Florida is investor owned or perhaps more. I assume the recession will be after that. This is what history shows us for the past 100 years
The macroeconomic environment that we’re currently in continue to support increasing prices and appreciation in the housing market. It’s not possible.
So you think it will crash?