I think if you asked most Americans wouldn’t know the US military plays in Syria various places in Africa South America ect. Obviously no one cares till it affects themselves.
@Birdsaregovspys6969 thats a tad different than the largest land war in europe since ww2 that russia started. Thats like Americans not knowing we invaded mexico
@@MrAndrethegiant420 Russia has blocked RUclips due to RUclips's policy of arbitrarily banning Russian channels, from official news outlets to even artists. An inevitable result of such a policy by RUclips, it must be noted.
German mechanized vehicles and weapons being deploying inside of Russia (Kursk no less) was absolutely unthinkable to the German (and other European) public at the outset of this war. I guess watching children's hospitals get glide bombed for a year or so changes people's minds.
I was brought up in Vancouver in the 1960s and one of my best friends, son of Ukrainian parents, educated me about the occupation of Ukraine before I was even ten years old. Thanks to him I was supporting Ukraine in 1969 when I was just nine.
Why have we not seen an outpouring of patriotic fervor on the part of the Russian population? Mother Russia was invaded by a foreign army and nothing. From Mosco to St. Petersburg all we get is defining silence.
Remember, when Wagner did their little march toward Moscow to "have words with" Shoigu and Putin, not a single dissenter was found. The videos show citizens lining up to meet Prigozin and his group with cheers. Should tell you how they really feel.
@matthewobrien7326 just so you know Peter talked about the importance of Belgorod at least a year ago, iirc in a talk about Russian highway and railroad logistics around Moscow
Railway to Belgorod is blocked, nobody needs to talk much just watch how Orkistan implodes with limited reserves and deficit budget and high interest rates AND inflation with Turkish bypass of sanctions closed and Chinese not willing to trade over official banks 😂
If Russia hasn't used a nuclear weapon, it has nothing to do with optics. It is because they understand that using a nuclear weapon won't help them win.
I suspect that very early on, the US government made 2 things clear to Russia: 1) Mutually Assured Destruction is still a thing 2) because of the above, they will allow Russia to achieve a technical victory in this war, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory: i.e. the territory they mange to take from Ukraine will be very small compared to the effort and cost (and casualties) they pay for this war. Ukraine has no territorial claims against Russia, and it's clear that the goal of the Kursk incursion is to achieve short-term tactical advantage and perhaps to use the territory as a bargaining chip in an eventual armistice negotiation.
I wonder if what was made VERY clear to Russia was that THEIR complete and utter destruction was very much a "thing". As to whether they would be able to inflict "Assured Destruction", we seem to be discovering throughout this "special military operation" that Russia always comes up short.
If they can neutralize the railroad then they can cripple the Russian army feeding into the occupied Ukrainian land. Peter's point about Belgorod makes perfect sense to me but I wonder if it's even simpler to say it's the supply lines and that mainly means rail. Additionally, they can fortify their own internationally recognized border now that they have established a buffer zone. Slava Ukraine!
@@DuelScreen I think the invasion is also meant to call out the bullshit of Western politicians withholding aid/prohibiting Ukraine to use provided long range missiles inside Russia on the basis of fear of escalation.
The problem with your thinking is there is no Pyrrhic victory in Ukraine. If Russia maintains logged on left bank of Dnieper and doesnt control the right one - it cant tap the water for crimea and Donbas. Ukraine has economically killed Donbas by closing the tap water from Zaporozhi dam in 2014. There is no economy left. Irrigation systems of southern Ukraine were destroyed with Kachovka. Crimea has drained its soviet "WW3" reservoirs in autumn 2021. It cant exist without the dam being rebuilt, it will turn into semi desert. (consider this one of the first actual Water wars) For the reservoir to be rebuilt (and making ZNPP operational) its a DECADE of rebuilding the dam and refilling the reservoir. Noone will do that on a river that would be a border. And equally - if Ukraine doesnt control the river fully it cant use it for trade (essentialy getting to same harmstrung problem Moldova, Northern romania and Western Ukraine are facing with Transnistrian occupation and blockade of Dniester) In Essence- Ukraine - at any price - must get back full control of Kherson and Zaporozhi regions. Without them its absolutely unsustainable as state. But without those regions- Crimea is dead for Russia- utterly unsustainable to hold. Equally -there is no natural border within Ukraine. (Dnieper is not one now when the reservoir is gone) - there is no economicaly and politicaly sustainable line dividing ukraine which wasnt tried in last 1000 years. And any attempt of division of Ukraine has ended in war. There will be no working armistice coming for decades. how to put it bluntly- Unless russia takes over 2/3 of Ukraine - literaly- anything it holds will be more detremental to it then useful. There has been no geopolitical solution to Ukraine for last 1000 years... you either have to occupy it all... or you are better off not having any piece of it. Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Turks... Everyone learned hard way. But for everyone else its technicaly expendable territory they dont need. Russians need it all for "security" but also as Peter already once pointed out- its nowhere close enough for Russian security. And Ukrainians loathe Russians in principle- the "armistice" would include Ukrainian demands like Russian language to remain banned, Russian church to remained banned, abolishing of all citizenship Russia issued ot ukrainians, cancelling adoptions of all ukrainian children in Russia, their removal from Russian families and return to Ukraine... with same "derussification" imposed on them as "degermanization" was done on kids abducted by nazi Lebensborn post 1945 (yes - Germans were literaly mandated by allies to remove children they stole from families, and restore their national identity - literaly Germans were obligated to tell those children - "Yes, we have been genocidal mass murdering monsters, yes we have attempted to destroy your national identity, we have attempted to impose on you ours, and for that your addoptive parents warcriminals were hanged... you are to learn the language and culture of the nation we stole you from and be that one." Degermanification - undoing of attempted genocide. Derussification after this war must be the same.
1) It is the US empire working to seize territory from Russia (NATO=US territory). 2) The Russian government, including Putin personally, had to make it clear to the increasingly aggressive Americans that M.A.D. is still a thing - saying "it is not a bluff" like talking to a child, yet here we are, still marching forward to doom. This war was never about territory, and we are getting uncomfortably close to finding out. Ukraine mistreating their Russian population was a pretext. There is only one real reason for the war - breaking NATO aggression. After 2008 NATO "invitations" to Ukraine and Georgia, the Russians first attacked their smaller neighbour then put the big one on notice. Despite all warnings and smouldering Ukrainian civil war, the Americans pushed "regime change" in Kyiv and kept invading the Russian zone of influence. Yes, there is a Russian counterpart to the American Monroe doctrine and as outdated as both empires seem to be in 2024, they both still have a giant fully functional nuclear arsenal to enforce such a doctrine.
@@jebes909090 Not so. The prisoners of war being taken are also the children of the powerful within Moscow. Ukraine is creating a dilemma for Putin, sowing the seeds of dissent within his own bureaucracy. Taking Kursk was an excellent long term strategy, giving Kyiv a bargaining chip they lacked previously.
It's like movie for you? Really great and brave people are dying every day while westerns are afraid of everything, limiting support, do not allow to use their weapon in russia, etc. And instead requesting - entertain, surprise us!
What is the measurement in both European square "kilometers" and Imperial square "miles" of the territory that stretches from #Kaliningrad to #Belgorod? 😊 0:02
When Peter used the phrase "tip of the spear" I couldn't help but think of Bill Paxton and the character he played in Edge of Tomorrow. Sergeant Farrell, "tip of the spear edge of the sword"
The Russian people have developed a sense of borderlessness. Kherson wasn’t Russia, then it was, then it wasn’t. Same with Kharkiv. The Russian people have grown indifferent to the empire growing or shrinking.
Indifference and apathy are actually VIRTUES in russian culture. Everybody who cared and was brave enough to voice their concerns was brutally removed from the system. And the official propaganda is quiet on the topic except for maybe "Due to recent events in the Kursk region trains to Belgorod may be delayed and/or cancelled. This is completely normal and nothing out of the ordinary!"
really. While I cheer for Ukraine and will celebrate their parade through red square as much as anyone I am not a naieve fool, like some. What has been shocking and might be the cleverest move of the war is that putin hasn't let the invasion of his border province divert quality troops from the Donbas. The kremlin is confident that Ukraine won't and can't stay in russia - but they intend to stay in the Donbas. I am both astonished by the cynicism and self control of the kremlin and depressed by the lack of clear thinking of so many commentators.
If Russia uses a nuke it opens pandoras box for future conflicts. Also Ukraine isn't a nuclear power, while it's really frowned upon to use a nuke in general, using a nuke against a non-nuclear power would be seen in even worse light. But let's all remember, the loudest guy in the room is usually the weakest.
Using a nuke against a non nuclear nation. There’s only one nation that dropped a nuke and it was against another that didn’t have one so where did you get context for this assumption? NATO and its allies are definitely the loudest in the room. You can’t even see/hear what the Russians are saying first hand as it’s been censored
With the issues they have been having with equipment functionality, is it possible they have fear that even the nukes will just fall on their own people?
Possible, but also the treat was against nato, not against Ukraine that needed to be liberated/rescued. Now Ukraine is crossing the border into Russia, not nato and throwing a nuke on Kiev would go against the propaganda of liberating Ukraine ...
Two points 1) the Russians were told everything is going to plan. So kind of a wake up call. Like the Tet offensive. Even in Russia, don’t underestimate the impact of super bad unscripted information. 2) building a platoon badge takes men, machines and material and it’s easily seen. The combat engineers are actually harder to replace.
Ha ha. No. That's magical thinking buddy. The Russians already knew of the planned incursion. Hence the failure of Ukraine to reach its objective the nuclear plant. And now withdrawing from the sliver of kursk region they entered is an immediate death sentence. Unfortunately western media does not deal in reality anymore so we have to go to media of more neutral or non aligned countries. And its quite clear what the current situation is. Thank God for internet.
You should check out Ward Carroll on the F-16s then. Like, Ward is okay, but the real gem is his recurring guest, Justin Bronk. Also, anything you can find of Fiona Hill (on Russia at least, I cannot speak about other topics) is absolutely amazing. Mark Galeotti's In Moscow's Shadows is also worth giving a try (but he's more musing/wandering in his speech, and getting solid data out of Russia to test his ideas has become hard since the breaking of ties etc - so your mileage may vary, style/preferences wise) And the channel Beau of the Fifth Column has _a lot_ of wisdom when it comes to foreign policy and boots on the grounds practicalities.
@@CM-gj6ut They wouldn’t have been able to launch their special military operation to liberate the Kursk Ukrainian People’s Republic from the yoke of Russian Fascism.
@@CM-gj6ut It was not a peace deal - it was Russian request for Ukraine's unconditional surrender. One of conditions was that in case Russia attacks Ukraine again, signatories and Ukraine safety guarantors (e.g. EU, USA) were supposed to consult first with Russia and get Russia's go-ahead before helping Ukraine to repel Russians. Yes, you read it right :) Then recently, Russians sent some fractional documents from that deal to some media people and these useful-you-know-who built a sandcastle out of it. Read more about it. Do not be useful-you-know-who too....
if Russia used nukes, China and India would buy no more from Russia. Who would Russia sell too? Where would they get food? answer: you should have thought of that beforehand
'..that has the full support of every western country' Forgot to mention that eastern countries might want a piece too, like China? Or, more importantly, separatists previously oppressed/ suppressed by might decide to rise up and join.. ..as many Russian soldiers have not only been captured, not only surrendered in such quantities as to have slowed Ukraine's 'special military operations' but actually asked to join Ukraine in them. The reserv'ed'ness and caution here was surprisingly so. Didn't expect a cheerleaders skirt & pom poms with a enthusiastically supportive cheer, but.. it ended on an up note vs how it started I s'pose. 👏 👏 👏 Viva La Revolucíon! No, but seriously, someone kicks in your front door, how you gonna go? That they haven't done this already given how unbelievably much ass they've kicked up to this point surprises me. Hopefully the rest of the EurAsian Economic Community takes note and grows even more of a pair. The nuclear blackmail Europe & Co have lived under for 2z3 generations at this point is as bullshit as nuclear blackmail is and then some.
I live in Bulgaria which was part of the Eastern block back in the day. As a result we had to learn to speak Russian and can watch their side of the story. In the Western part of the internet English speaking people like yourself see it as some major victory and a humiliation to Russia. In the Russian speaking world this seen as a distraction and a last ditch attempt of a losing enemy. Perception is a big thing.
@@cowboybeboop9420 fortunately, most of us here aren't brainwashed zombies that the russkis are, so it doesn't really matter what they say on their TV.
@@cowboybeboop9420 thanj you for your comment, this differance of perspectives is very intresting - could you comment on whether the eastern-russian speaking world perspective is influenced (and if yes to what extent) by the official russian media?
The Russians are in a real dilemma now. I kind of expect them to use at least tactical nukes. If they don't they have a real political problem on their hands, they look weak, and Russians hate looking weak.
This guy is and unabashedly russophobic. Doesn’t even pretend to be impartial…which he ought to be. Of course you have the usual cheerleaders in the comments section regardless. Does V.Putin strike anyone as a coward? No he does not and I look forward to seeing a response to the “defensive alliance Nato’s” trained and supported Ukrainian incursion….
@@johnoconnell3842 Russophobic? That's a pretty cringe worthy term. Of course Peter is biased against Russia, he is heavily involved with their enemies... And many times he underestimates Russia. That said the term Russophobic is stupid and should disappear forever.
It's just ridiculous to actually belive they'll use nukes unless the state's existence or Putin himself is seriously threatened. And the more people say things like we can do x thing or they'll use nukes.
@@tepesvoda464 it's a joke reference. It's a movie trope where the main characters are on a journey in search of treasure, and thoughout the story, the main characters will meet people that will assist them in the journey, where they through hardship along the way will learn about eachother and become friends. The story will often end with the treasure being lost or a dissapointment, the group will be sad, until one member says "maybe the real treasure was the friends we made along the way" to hint that the journey wasn't all for nothing. You might also have heard the saying once: "it's not about the destination, it's about the journey"
From what I know about the reality of Russia and Putin, I'd say the real 'red lines' are a whole lot closer to Moscow and St. Petersburg. Everything beyond those two areas are sacrificial.
Didn't Ukraine retire the Abrahams from the front line because they were losing them too fast? What's the point of modern equipment if you're not allowed to use it?
Welcome back from your backpacking trip Peter! I'm glad you are safe and I hope it went well enough. Thank you for your analysis as always, you are much appreciated.
Russia's resources aren't endless. They are starting to run low on equipment, and they will run out of people who are willing to go to war in a Scobey do van.
in st petersburg city 20.000 dolllars to enlist for 6 months , for poorest russian asian minority 2.000 dollars , they will never run out of people , russian value human life , in ww2 1941 russian population 170 millions germany 70 , 23 millions russian die 8 millions german , in ukraine under 600.000 russian 164.000 ukrainian, russian population 1945- 143 millions 2024 -144 , german 62 in 2024 -83 millions , in 79 years grew 1 million german21 usa 196 millions, 25 percent russian men die before 55 , on potato cabbage vodka daiet , mortality 2022-68 in2024-66 , german 78 , russian economy is 3rd world on life support , g.d.p. 30 military 3 civill domestic , infrastructure absolute junk from soviet era , russia is winning destroying ther economy population.
The invasion of Ukraine and the following sanctions of the western economic system have completely upended Russian trade with the West, which forced them to completely shift to the Chinese dominated land based Asian trading system. Xi doesn’t like the war (probably because it’s taking too long), but he decided to give Putin an almost free hand in Ukraine in exchange for what can be summarised as beneficiary trade relations. This allows the Chinese to somewhat reduce their dependence on ocean going trade and therefore American non-interference, which is great for them as they are still planning to „unify“ large parts of the South China Sea. Now if Putin decides to use a nuclear weapon during an offensive war, many of the adjacent smaller nations will most likely try to get their own nukes, which inevitably will nullify all military options the Chinese ever had and probably ever will have to achieve their goals. Xi won‘t have that and Putin knows it. He really has no other option than playing nice with Xi, as he has already burnt down all bridges to the West.
@@NombuleloBlose-v2s Same here! I suspect we have made plain to Russia's senior military leaders that we are watching them. "We see them when they're sleeping; we know when they're awake..." and we know where they, AND THEIR FAMILIES are, 24/7/365. "They can run, but they can't hide"!
@@flyingspirit3549 Rumor in the intelligence community is that the US regularly lets Putin know that they know exactly where he is right now, even when he's at some secret location, so that he understands that if a nuke flies, he's the first target in a retaliatory strike. One advantage to Russia being a one man show dictatorship is that the one man will do whatever he can to stay alive and in power. In a way it's easier to deal with than an ideological state like the USSR, where taking out the leadership just ensured a full counter-strike from the ideologically motivated military. Having removed all his political opponents and filled the power structure with weak sycophants, Putin is basically a single point of failure for the whole thing.
The "lob a nuke" talk is particularly disturbing as if a nuclear exchange would involve a handful of cities being flattened and then we all take a deep breath now that we got it out of our system vs. reality, i.e. one nuke is launched = all nukes are launched and every single person you know is dead or dying in under an hour without so much as a chance to say goodbye.
Think of it this way, if the modern world cant handle literally the most bloodsoaked fought over land in history being fought over, between a nuclear armed county and a small nation state. We are fucked, like there is no future. But nukes aren't flying and the war has continued, so that would suggest reality is far less cavalier. Nukes mean no more nazi world conquests, no more empires annexing entire nations, it forces less extreme war. Until one actually flies and we ge to see what seceret technology the U.S has been hiding to intercept then
It's cute that everyone thinks the Russians have nukes or that they still work. Remember a LOT of them went missing after the USSR fell. Whether they have techs left to build and maintain them is another o0en question.
@josephdoiron8376 I'm not even convinced of tactical ones, nukes are finicky weapons that require a lot of maintenance and precision. Strapping them to giant rockets definitely adds a massive layer of complexity but there has to be serious doubts as to whether tactical weapons, even if launched would actually detonate.
This is very stupid thinking. Just because the Russians haven`t used nukes YET doesn`t mean they won`t use nukes EVER. If you look at the period prior to WW1 there were a bunch of times when war could have broken out and it DIDN`T. What ultimately happened was that the Great Powers sleepwalked into a major war. We don`t want this to happen now.
You can't assume your enemy is incompetent or that his equipment doesn't work. That's how you end up thinking you'll roll into Kyiv in three days and three years later struggle to hold Kursk.
My impression is that the foundational dilemma for Russia is that their soldiers and officers just don’t want to fight. There is apathy, complacency, no urgency, no sense of courage and self sacrifice. Yes, there are some hung ho types in their military, but the bulk aren’t motivated to fight with distinction, integrity, honor, and purpose. As a result, so many just die in the meat grinder tactics and that kind of warfare spreads up and down the rank and file to just discourage everyone to fight with vigor and dedication.
I see a flaw in your analysis Peter. 4:49 Very specific, particular pieces of recently delivered equipment and individual units which underwent western training are very very very very VERY strangely absent from any of the footage coming from Kursk, as well as absent from Donetsk. Also, Russian reports tell of about 10,000 Ukrainian troops in the area, which is way less than those reserves they have. A lot of people still think Ukraine has a small secondary force waiting to strike again to follow up the Kursk incursion.
Some commentators are asking, 'where is the lost 100,000?' After the 24-27 Ukrainian mobilization earlier this year, and given the 3 month minimum infantryman training time, there are divisional sized units missing from the front....plus a turnover of experienced brigades being pulled from the lines and replaced with territorial defense troops. I have not seen one video of a Leopard 2 tank in Kursk. They still have over 100 of these in active service. Methinks something is brewing and NOT in Kursk.
I'll add the significant leadership advantage Ukraine has. Not only their own military leaders in commanders but also the advanced warning they receive and logistical support from other countries.
@@arau8310 A few serious military commentators suggest that Ukraine has the most capable Military in Europe. 2 years of war will do that.... I agree, Western sigint and logistical support add another whole level of competency.
At 10:10-:16 referring to the Russians launching nukes, Peter says, either they’re unwilling or unable to launch act..” Could it be restraint due to the extreme nature of nukes, as possibly a third choice.
I'm not sure about it being the last of the reserves. By what information I I've been paying attention to it would seem they have at least another 5 or 6 brigades. Time will tell.
I doubt the Territory itself is the Goal to begin with. There is 3 Reasons for this. 1. It Forces Russia to Spread its Forces alot more. Because right now Ukraine has to Fully Staff its Frontlines to prevent Russian Attacks. While Russia was Safe behind its Border and thus could just put minimal Numbers of Conscripts there. 2. What You call a War Movement is also Importand. (And often Overlooked by Many). Russian Doctrine and Weaponry is Focused on Trench Warfare. Slow Moving Frontlines where Russia can Pound Enemies with their massive numbers of Towed Artillery. Is what Russia likes. But Western Equipment and Doctrine is Focused on Maneuver Warfare. Its far more Accurate and Mobile but far less Numerous Artillery and other Units are of Limited use in Trench Warfare. But are Great for a Fast moving Frontline where Towed Artillery becomes exceedingly hard to use and exceedingly easy to destroy. 3. And Finally. There is the Morale Effects. This Incursion is a Huge Morale Boost for Ukrainians. Especially after being Slowly Pushed back over the last Months. Likewise on the Russian Side its a massive Blow to Morale. Because this heavily scrapes on the Russian claims about everything going according to plan. And Ukraine just delaying the Inevitable.
@@albertmaziarz6739 And for those commenting on the relatively low reaction from that population for the moment, the media is downplaying what little they are reporting and the great Putin is not to be seen or heard, except on some foreign trip to a stan.
It's interesting to call Putin Putler. Hitler had a lot of military success at the start of WW2, which shocked the world with their successes. Putin failed from the very start.
A dude that backpacks outside of cell service talking about geopolitics is like taking stock market advice from a guy that lives deep within the Amazon.
The Russian strategy of showering the Ukrainians with artillery to immobilize them requires copious preparation and prepositioning of equipment and personnel, along with a substantial lead time to account for Russia's top-down command structure that hamstrings agility and the ability to react effectively to a changing battlefield. And that's all if they are *not* currently under attack. Ukraine bringing the fight to them dramatically extends this already protracted timeline, and the time it will take for the Kremlin to lay waste to its own territory to "defend" it enough to expel the Ukrainian forces will be great enough that the effect on the war in Ukraine will likely be effectively irreversible. Russia cannot ignore this invasion, but reacting to it is largely beyond their capability too. The psychological impact cannot be overstated, nor can the effect on Putin's grip on power.
5:50 "neither do the Russians have the men necessary to eject". The way I see it Putin is going to try to keep his contract army fighting in the Donbas and he's going to give the 200,000 plus conscript army who are only allowed to fight on Russian territory the job of evicting the ukrainians. This has several advantages for Putin, enlarging the force that can actually fight and giving the conscript forces combat experience, Plus eventually pressuring Ukraine on their northern front with the conscripts and putting him in a better operational situation. That said the ukrainians were losing the war of attrition against a larger foe with a better industrial base, they had to do something and this was pretty brilliant
That's the dilemma that Ukraine wants. Using conscripts means using the sons and daughters of Putin's supporters instead of "volunteer" minorities. This would bring the war home to a lot more Russians.
I agree 100% on the nuke not flying. Russia at this point is no longer a nuclear power. It has nuke, but no power, therefore it's just a nuke storage and janitor is holding a key. No need to worry about their nuke at this point.
Doesn't seem like they're confused to me. They seem to be ignoring the Ukrainians and enjoying the now-easier time they're having in Donbas without those extra Ukrainians resources which went into Kursk.
Russia is unable to detonate nukes. Plutonium nukes require deuterium, which has a shelf life if 13 years. Considering the poor upkeep on the cheaper weapons, the more used weapons, we can assume the nuclear weapons have been neglected the same or worse due to cost and lack of potential use. Even if 1/10 of their weapons are operational, Russia would be hard pressed to know which ones will fire, let alone detonate. If the targeting systems of their missles show anything, if an ICBM is launched from Russia its as likely to hit Russia as much as Ireland, Spain, or the Artic.
I think you meant tritium, not deuterium. Deuterium is a stable isotope of hydrogen. Tritium is the unstable one, with a half life of approximately a decade, yes
Ukraine just completed a mobilization and training period - not only are there more troops, they have started to receive mass shipments of weapons from abroad. I would call Kursk a feint. What they'll do from there is anyone's guess but I'd say Crimea. If they can get the Russians to commit on Kursk that will fix the "Eye of Sauron" (Putin) and his attention on Kursk - allowing them to operate elsewhere more easily.
The Chinese, who have just crossed the 50% sales line of diminishing ICE vs rising EV automobiles, to regain breathable air in their cities, would not appreciate Russia poisoning it with nuclear fallout.
Belgorod is fed via a rail line going south-east from Kursk. UKR is nowhere near it yet. RU can easily take 10% of the forces from Donbas (30K) without impacting the front. This may not be enough to push UKR out of Kursk, but may be enough to stop further UKR advance. UKR has at least 5 brigades left in reserve. Question is where they are going to use them. Probably somewhere else. Then the Kursk operation makes sense as a binding operation. Other than that, it does not impact RU logistics much and the value and size of the taken territory is not enough to exchange it for anything significant.
This video hasn’t aged well. Ukrainian losses in this diversionary offensive are proving to be more heavy than worthwhile (as the diversion has essentially failed). Meanwhile Russia continues to advance in Donbas. So it apparently wasn’t worth it. Ukraine was doing better concentrating on defense.
My likely overly simplistic opinion is that Russia is keeping the nukes capped because China primarily and India secondarily are keeping them on an economic leash
You're not wrong about that. I think it's very possible that the Chinese have quietly suggested to Mr. Putin that they don't want to see any nukes brought out to play with.
You're not wrong. Neither country could get along without the west without taking a major hit financially. I'm not conceited enough to think that they couldn't eventually recover but current leadership may not survive to see the recovery - and they are not willing to sacrifice themselves for the "Greater Good" as they demand others to.
@@albertmaziarz6739 probably not wrong. China is biding their time so that Russia grows weaker and also distracts the west. China wants a piece of Russias far east.
If Ukrainian figures are anywhere near accurate, Russia is now losing 50 artillery a day, which amounts to over 18,000 in a year. Russian advantage in arty is drying up rapidly. Then what do the Russians do, they rely so heavily on arty.
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None of My chosen people-those whom I predestined and chose-can be possessed by evil spirits ever and rather always will be holy. Now, I show you, one by one, the things that were previously hidden. Arise and cooperate with Me! I will certainly not mistreat anyone who faithfully devotes themselves to Me. Give yourself completely to Me! What you eat, what you wear, and your future are all in My hands; I will set everything right, so that you will have endless enjoyment, which you will never run out of.) Almighty God said That My MYSTERIES are REVEALED and OPENLY seen, and NOT HIDDEN, is ENTIRELY due to My GRACE and MERCY. Furthermore, that My WORD appears AMONG PEOPLE, and is NO longer COVERED, is also due to My GRACE and MERCY. 🙏 I LOVE ALL those who SINCERELY--HEARTEDLY SPEND THEMSELVES for Me and DEDICATE THEMSELVES to Me. I AM ANGRY against those who were BORN from Me but do NOT KNOW Me, and STILL RESIST Me. I WILL not FORSAKE ANYONE who has a SINCERE--HEART for Me, RATHER I WILL DOUBLE that person's BLESSINGS. I will punish doubly those who are ungrateful and violate My kindness, and I will not just leave them alone. ☀️ In My KINGDOM, THERE is NO PERVERSION or DECEPTION, and NO WORLDLINESS; that is, NO CORPSE smell. Rather, ALL is RIGHTEOUSNESS and righteousness; ALL is boldness and FAITHFULNESS, with NOTHING HIDDEN or hidden. ALL is FRESH, ALL is FUN, and ALL is IMPROVEMENT. Anyone who smells--still dead cannot REMAIN in My KINGDOM, but rather RULE with My ROD of IRON. ALL the ENDLESS MYSTERIES, from the FIRST TIME to the PRESENT, are FULLY REVEALED to YOU---the GROUP of PEOPLE I HAVE GAINED in the LAST DAYS. Don't you feel blessed? 🙏💐 Furthermore, the days when everything will be openly revealed are the days when you will be part of My reign. 🙏 The GROUP of PEOPLE who REALLY RULE DEPEND on My PREDESTINATION and CHOICE, and have ABSOLUTELY NO HUMAN will here. 🙏 Anyone who dares to take part in this will have to experience punishment from My hand, and such people will be the target of My fiery wrath, this is another side of My righteousness and majesty. I SAID I RULE OVER ALL THINGS, I AM the WISE GOD who HOLDS all POWER, and I am strict over all; I am completely ruthless, and ABSOLUTELY without PERSONAL FEELINGS. ☀️ I treat everyone (no matter how well-spoken he is, I will not let him go) with My righteousness, righteousness, and majesty, while enabling everyone to see more clearly the wonderfulness of My works, as well that is also the meaning of My works. One by one, I punish the evil spirits for all kinds of actions they commit, casting them one by one into the eternal abyss. This WORK I FINISHED before TIME began, LEAVING them WITHOUT a POSITION, LEAVING them with NO PLACE to do their WORK. None of My CHOSEN PEOPLE---those who were pre---DESIGNED and CHOSEN by Me---can ever be possessed by evil spirits and INSTEAD will always be HOLY. 🙏💐 As for those who are not predestined and chosen, I will pass them over to Satan, and I will not let them stay. In all respects, My JUSTICE and My MAJESTY are INCLUDED in My administrative orders. I will not spare one of Satan's actions, but will throw them with their bodies into Hades, because I hate Satan. I will not let it go lightly, but will destroy it completely, not giving it the slightest chance to do its work. ALL that SATAN has DESTROYED in any way (that is, the objects of disaster) are under the great arrangement of My own hand. ☀️ Do not think that this happened as a result of Satan's ferocity; know that I am the ALMIGHTY GOD who RULES the ENTIRE UNIVERSE and all THINGS! 🙏 For Me, there is NO PROBLEM UNSOLVED, and especially NO THING UNDOED or any WORD UNSPOKEN. People should not act as My advisers. Beware of falling by My hand and cast into Hades. I'm telling you this! 🙏 Those who actively COOPERATE with Me NOW are the SMARTEST, and they will avoid losses and escape the pain of judgment. ALL of these are My arrangements, predestined by Me. 🙏 Don't COMMENT vulgarly and DON'T SPEAK disparagingly, THINKING you're so good. Was it not all by My predestination? You, who will be My counselors, are shameless! You do not know your own height; how low it is! Even so, you think it is a small matter, and you do not recognize yourselves. Always, you do not listen to My words, causing My careful efforts to be wasted, and do not even realize that these are manifestations of My grace and mercy. Instead, you try to demonstrate your own intelligence over and over again. Do you remember this? What chastisement should people who think they are so good receive? Careless and unfaithful to My words, and not taking them to heart, you use Me as a pretense to do this and that. Bad people! When will you be able to fully consider My heart? ☀️ You have no regard for this so calling you "evil" is not mistreatment of you. It really suits you! NOW, I AM SHOWING YOU, ONE by ONE, the THINGS that were HIDDEN BEFORE. The GREAT RED DRAGON is THROWN into the ETERNAL DEEP and COMPLETELY DESTROYED, because there is ABSOLUTELY NO POINT in KEEPING it any longer; means it doesn't serve CHRIST. 🙏 After this, the RED things will DISAPPEAR; little by little, they WILL DISAPPEAR UNTIL they are LOST. I DO what I SAY; this is the EVENT of My WORK. 🙏 REMOVE human UNDERSTANDING; EVERYTHING I SAID, I DID. ☀️ All those who are wise bring only destruction and reproach upon themselves, and do not want to live. Therefore, I will satisfy You, and I will certainly not keep such people. After this, the population will rise to excellence while those who are not actively working with Me will be swept away into nothingness. The ones I approve of are the ones I WILL MAKE PERFECT, and I will REJECT NO ONE. There are NO contradictions in what I SAY. Those who do not actively cooperate with Me will suffer more chastisement, although, in the end I will surely save them. However, WHEN THAT TIME COMES, THE SCOPE of their LIVES will be DIFFERENT. Do you want to be that kind of person? 🙏 RISE and HELP Me! ☀️ I will certainly not mistreat anyone who faithfully devotes themselves to Me. TO THOSE who SINCERELY--HEARTEDLY DEDICATE THEMSELVES to Me, I WILL GIVE ALL My BLESSINGS to YOU. GIVE YOURSELF COMPLETELY to Me! WHAT you EAT, WHAT you WEAR, and your FUTURE are ALL in My HANDS; I will ARRANGE EVERYTHING RIGHT, so that you WILL HAVE ENDLESS ENJOYMENT, which YOU will NEVER END UP.☀️🙏 This is because I SAID, "To those who sincerely spend for Me, I will surely bless You abundantly." ALL BLESSINGS WILL COME TO EVERY PERSON who sincerely--heartedly SPENDS HIMSELF for Me. 🙏💐 From "The WORD Appears in the Flesh" Fulfilled in "In the beginning He was the Word, the Word was with God, and the Word was God" (John 1:1). and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:13). 📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 ful. (Mat. 16:18)
Ryan McBeth explains it well: Create dilemmas for your enemy, not problems. A problem has a solution. A dilemma has several solutions, all of which have undesirable consequences. Russia will need to re-deploy troops out of the Donbas to address Kursk, which will leave Donbas vulnerable AND get troops on the move where theyre more vulnerable. When asked about his thoughts on the Kursk encroachment last week, President Biden literally said "Kursk has given Putin quite a dilemma"
Another good point I've seen pointed out elsewhere is that the Kursk oblast is Russia's breadbasket. A significant amount of Russia's food production has now been hampered right before the grain harvest season. This is likely to drive up food prices in Russia and/or hamstringing one of Russia's few remaining viable export revenue streams. Also, that region is one of the major iron ore production regions of Russia. While it's unlikely that the loss of iron or wheat will be enough to cause major disruption, it will drive up prices, hamper heavy industry and put additional political pressure on Moscow to go to the bargaining table.
About the Nukes willingness - I'd say that there's probably a difference between attacking with a Ukrainian force capable of taking a part of a province... Versus let's say the US crossing the Russian border.
You are right here man. People here are expecting Ukraine's incursion with tanks and artillery to mean Russia's red line. I think the world would see a nuke reaction from Russia at this stage or type of incursions to be premature.
Great analysis. Something to mention though. The west has provided a lot of aid and a lot of it has arrived in the last 9 months or so. As far as we can see not much of that is being utilized in Kursk. Also Zelensky signed a decree in March requiring all men 18 to 60 to register for service. We've seen droves of people lining up to register. So then where is all this aid? Where are all these men? Some say Kursk is also a diversion and they are going to open yet another front.
@@sburns2421 No it's physics. Even a newly manufactured nuclear weapon has a substantial failure rate - much less stuff that's been half-lifed away. That's a significant part of nuclear weapons research - not making a bomb that works when fresh off the line, but one that still works after 15 or 30 years. I don't know if russia has been reconditioning their arsenal but there is a HUGE business for this in USA.
@@brianwelch1579 The only part of your response that matters is where you said "I don't know" You assume their inventory is just rusting away. But in reality the people that do know in Russia would never disclose their ongoing maintenance. Putin does not strike me as a person that bluffs. If they decide to use a tactical nuke I am confident that specific device will have all its maintenance current.
When the original Russian invasion bogged down, I joked that Putin would eventually tout the 'liberation' of Belgorod , declare victory and cease hostilities. 😶😑😐🤨 This was not supposed to be a prediction!
Peter has great, interesting analysis of all topics. I think that anyone who is surprised by Russia's lack of a nuclear response to Ukraine's invasion of Kursk Oblast either just hasn't been paying attention or has swallowed too much of Putin's information operations. As Peter alludes to, using nukes has too many downsides for Russia. Also, Russia has been proving for 2.5 years that its "red lines" mean nothing and that it requires no "triggers" for escalation: Russia escalates as much as it wants and needs no excuse (just a lame excuse for its info ops, maybe). And Russia has clearly shown for almost the entire war that it has already escalated to the maximum: e.g., as much mobilization as it can afford politically and logistically, razing cities to the ground, attacking targets that are clearly in violation of the law of armed conflict, use of weapons that violate the LOAC, treatment of POWs and civilians, abduction of children, and so forth. If it were going to use nukes, it would have done so a long time ago. Anders Puck Nielsen made an excellent analysis of this about two full years ago. Furthermore, it's reasonable to speculate that NATO or the U.S. has explicitly or implicitly told Russia that if it uses nukes, it will get a massive, non-nuclear response that it cannot defend against or recover from. (I don't think that Peter is surprised by Russia's non-use of nukes, but he says that it's major news. I'd say that it may be significant, but it's not really a new insight that wasn't inferable long ago.)
*Russia:* It's an invasion.
*Ukraine:* No, it's a special military operation.
Let's remember that Volodymyr Zelenskyi was a comedian before elected president. He actually played the president in a comedy show.
@@eerohorila1109lol, and?
@@gamurarandrei2657
It's Satirical reciprocation...to Putler. 😂
A Liberation
😂
The surprise was that the local Russians think the war only started on Aug. 5, when THEY were invaded.
actually quite rational way to look at the world. which war are you currently fighting in? so what war goes on "for you"?
I think if you asked most Americans wouldn’t know the US military plays in Syria various places in Africa South America ect.
Obviously no one cares till it affects themselves.
Exactly, the Obama administration started the war almost a decade before that
@Birdsaregovspys6969 thats a tad different than the largest land war in europe since ww2 that russia started. Thats like Americans not knowing we invaded mexico
@@Birdsaregovspys6969The scale is different. Also, the Russian government did have a limited mobilization and there're ads everywhere
Putin complained that Ukraine launched an "un-provoked attack" against Russia. Really? The irony is lost on no one.
Source for this "complaint" by Putin?
The Russians are simple minded, even a little Neolithic.
Ukraine found out Putin tried joining NATO 20 years ago, hence it totally justifying their invasion of Russia
@@GenuineAccounting you do realize that Russia has baned and blocked access to youtube? So why you here Ivan?
@@MrAndrethegiant420 Russia has blocked RUclips due to RUclips's policy of arbitrarily banning Russian channels, from official news outlets to even artists. An inevitable result of such a policy by RUclips, it must be noted.
You want to give your enemy dilemmas, not problems. Problems can be solved. Dilemmas have 2 answers, both of which are bad.
German mechanized vehicles and weapons being deploying inside of Russia (Kursk no less) was absolutely unthinkable to the German (and other European) public at the outset of this war. I guess watching children's hospitals get glide bombed for a year or so changes people's minds.
As they say, history may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme
You’re spot on…. Karma is a bitch!!
As a child in Alberta, I used to get into fights because I was Ukrainian. Now I couldn't be more proud.
I was brought up in Vancouver in the 1960s and one of my best friends, son of Ukrainian parents, educated me about the occupation of Ukraine before I was even ten years old. Thanks to him I was supporting Ukraine in 1969 when I was just nine.
SLAVA UKRAINI 🇺🇦🇺🇲 HEROYAM SLAVA!
From Australia Slava Ukraini.🤠👍🇭🇲❤️🇺🇦
As a child we all had fights. I was the son of a military family and I had to fight every time we moved. About every 2 to 3 yrs.
Ukrain is taking names....Don't mess with the U
Why have we not seen an outpouring of patriotic fervor on the part of the Russian population? Mother Russia was invaded by a foreign army and nothing. From Mosco to St. Petersburg all we get is defining silence.
Because the population is deeply de-politicized. This is also why they not rise up against Putin. Same mechanics.
There was some Russian vet online shaming the males who evacuated, turned out he was in the headstone business these days.
Because russians are not a real nation.
Remember, when Wagner did their little march toward Moscow to "have words with" Shoigu and Putin, not a single dissenter was found. The videos show citizens lining up to meet Prigozin and his group with cheers. Should tell you how they really feel.
It seems that their depoliticized "as long as it doesn't affect me then whatever" state applies here too.
Peter is the first one to mention isolating Belgorod.
He didn't check the map properly
He is not. I discussed it a week ago plus.
@matthewobrien7326 just so you know Peter talked about the importance of Belgorod at least a year ago, iirc in a talk about Russian highway and railroad logistics around Moscow
@@matthewobrien7326 Peter has been discussing this for at least a year. So he beats your few weeks :D
Railway to Belgorod is blocked, nobody needs to talk much just watch how Orkistan implodes with limited reserves and deficit budget and high interest rates AND inflation with Turkish bypass of sanctions closed and Chinese not willing to trade over official banks 😂
If Russia hasn't used a nuclear weapon, it has nothing to do with optics. It is because they understand that using a nuclear weapon won't help them win.
They are also likely terrified using it may trigger someone else using one too. It doesn't just go one way.
optics are part of winning. What are you on about
@@moonasha threating nukes is optics, getting invaded and doing nothing is proof they wont use nukes lol you funny kid
If theirs even work at all
I suspect that very early on, the US government made 2 things clear to Russia:
1) Mutually Assured Destruction is still a thing
2) because of the above, they will allow Russia to achieve a technical victory in this war, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory: i.e. the territory they mange to take from Ukraine will be very small compared to the effort and cost (and casualties) they pay for this war.
Ukraine has no territorial claims against Russia, and it's clear that the goal of the Kursk incursion is to achieve short-term tactical advantage and perhaps to use the territory as a bargaining chip in an eventual armistice negotiation.
I wonder if what was made VERY clear to Russia was that THEIR complete and utter destruction was very much a "thing". As to whether they would be able to inflict "Assured Destruction", we seem to be discovering throughout this "special military operation" that Russia always comes up short.
If they can neutralize the railroad then they can cripple the Russian army feeding into the occupied Ukrainian land. Peter's point about Belgorod makes perfect sense to me but I wonder if it's even simpler to say it's the supply lines and that mainly means rail.
Additionally, they can fortify their own internationally recognized border now that they have established a buffer zone. Slava Ukraine!
@@DuelScreen I think the invasion is also meant to call out the bullshit of Western politicians withholding aid/prohibiting Ukraine to use provided long range missiles inside Russia on the basis of fear of escalation.
The problem with your thinking is there is no Pyrrhic victory in Ukraine.
If Russia maintains logged on left bank of Dnieper and doesnt control the right one - it cant tap the water for crimea and Donbas.
Ukraine has economically killed Donbas by closing the tap water from Zaporozhi dam in 2014. There is no economy left.
Irrigation systems of southern Ukraine were destroyed with Kachovka.
Crimea has drained its soviet "WW3" reservoirs in autumn 2021. It cant exist without the dam being rebuilt, it will turn into semi desert.
(consider this one of the first actual Water wars)
For the reservoir to be rebuilt (and making ZNPP operational) its a DECADE of rebuilding the dam and refilling the reservoir.
Noone will do that on a river that would be a border.
And equally - if Ukraine doesnt control the river fully it cant use it for trade (essentialy getting to same harmstrung problem Moldova, Northern romania and Western Ukraine are facing with Transnistrian occupation and blockade of Dniester)
In Essence- Ukraine - at any price - must get back full control of Kherson and Zaporozhi regions. Without them its absolutely unsustainable as state.
But without those regions- Crimea is dead for Russia- utterly unsustainable to hold.
Equally -there is no natural border within Ukraine. (Dnieper is not one now when the reservoir is gone) - there is no economicaly and politicaly sustainable line dividing ukraine which wasnt tried in last 1000 years. And any attempt of division of Ukraine has ended in war.
There will be no working armistice coming for decades.
how to put it bluntly- Unless russia takes over 2/3 of Ukraine - literaly- anything it holds will be more detremental to it then useful. There has been no geopolitical solution to Ukraine for last 1000 years...
you either have to occupy it all... or you are better off not having any piece of it. Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Turks...
Everyone learned hard way. But for everyone else its technicaly expendable territory they dont need. Russians need it all for "security" but also as Peter already once pointed out- its nowhere close enough for Russian security.
And Ukrainians loathe Russians in principle- the "armistice" would include Ukrainian demands like Russian language to remain banned, Russian church to remained banned, abolishing of all citizenship Russia issued ot ukrainians, cancelling adoptions of all ukrainian children in Russia, their removal from Russian families and return to Ukraine... with same "derussification" imposed on them as "degermanization" was done on kids abducted by nazi Lebensborn post 1945 (yes - Germans were literaly mandated by allies to remove children they stole from families, and restore their national identity - literaly Germans were obligated to tell those children - "Yes, we have been genocidal mass murdering monsters, yes we have attempted to destroy your national identity, we have attempted to impose on you ours, and for that your addoptive parents warcriminals were hanged... you are to learn the language and culture of the nation we stole you from and be that one."
Degermanification - undoing of attempted genocide.
Derussification after this war must be the same.
1) It is the US empire working to seize territory from Russia (NATO=US territory).
2) The Russian government, including Putin personally, had to make it clear to the increasingly aggressive Americans that M.A.D. is still a thing - saying "it is not a bluff" like talking to a child, yet here we are, still marching forward to doom.
This war was never about territory, and we are getting uncomfortably close to finding out. Ukraine mistreating their Russian population was a pretext. There is only one real reason for the war - breaking NATO aggression. After 2008 NATO "invitations" to Ukraine and Georgia, the Russians first attacked their smaller neighbour then put the big one on notice. Despite all warnings and smouldering Ukrainian civil war, the Americans pushed "regime change" in Kyiv and kept invading the Russian zone of influence. Yes, there is a Russian counterpart to the American Monroe doctrine and as outdated as both empires seem to be in 2024, they both still have a giant fully functional nuclear arsenal to enforce such a doctrine.
Just a quick correction, Peter, this is not an incursion, it's a special military operation. Little more than a policing action, really.
They are just denazifying kurst
And liberating all of those Ethnic Ukrainians from Russian political oppression.
hardly more than an anti-terrorism operation.
Its a waste of ukraines resources for a pr stunt unfortunately
@@jebes909090 Not so. The prisoners of war being taken are also the children of the powerful within Moscow. Ukraine is creating a dilemma for Putin, sowing the seeds of dissent within his own bureaucracy. Taking Kursk was an excellent long term strategy, giving Kyiv a bargaining chip they lacked previously.
Please, Ukraine, surprise us even more! ❤
24/7
They will...when they bring in the United States and Europe to fight after they run out of people.
It's like movie for you?
Really great and brave people are dying every day while westerns are afraid of everything, limiting support, do not allow to use their weapon in russia, etc. And instead requesting - entertain, surprise us!
What is the measurement in both European square "kilometers" and Imperial square "miles" of the territory that stretches from #Kaliningrad to #Belgorod? 😊 0:02
Surprised? But I thought you neocons were going to conquer all of Russia?
When Peter used the phrase "tip of the spear" I couldn't help but think of Bill Paxton and the character he played in Edge of Tomorrow. Sergeant Farrell, "tip of the spear edge of the sword"
Crack of my...
The Russian people have developed a sense of borderlessness. Kherson wasn’t Russia, then it was, then it wasn’t. Same with Kharkiv. The Russian people have grown indifferent to the empire growing or shrinking.
Indifference and apathy are actually VIRTUES in russian culture. Everybody who cared and was brave enough to voice their concerns was brutally removed from the system. And the official propaganda is quiet on the topic except for maybe "Due to recent events in the Kursk region trains to Belgorod may be delayed and/or cancelled. This is completely normal and nothing out of the ordinary!"
Difference between people fighting for themselves and people fighting for others.
yeah the ukrainians are fighting on behalf of the americans and the russians for themselves.
"Pretty fuckin' clever" is a good description of the entire Kursk enterprise.
Yes, as a carefully-planned psyop, it is achieving its goals on the Russian and EU populations. As a military operation, it’s stupid beyond belief.
really. While I cheer for Ukraine and will celebrate their parade through red square as much as anyone I am not a naieve fool, like some. What has been shocking and might be the cleverest move of the war is that putin hasn't let the invasion of his border province divert quality troops from the Donbas. The kremlin is confident that Ukraine won't and can't stay in russia - but they intend to stay in the Donbas. I am both astonished by the cynicism and self control of the kremlin and depressed by the lack of clear thinking of so many commentators.
Ukraine single-handedly turned Ruzzias nuclear doctrine into a worthless piece of paper..
Tell that to the Ukranians fighting the Russians in Adivka front.
Chasiv Yar, that's Ukraine, Russians are pulling troops out of there (UA) to Russian, Kursk! Win, win, with Zelensky! 🇺🇦🩵
If Russia uses a nuke it opens pandoras box for future conflicts. Also Ukraine isn't a nuclear power, while it's really frowned upon to use a nuke in general, using a nuke against a non-nuclear power would be seen in even worse light.
But let's all remember, the loudest guy in the room is usually the weakest.
>>while it's really frowned upon to use a nuke in general, using a nuke against a non-nuclear power would be seen in even worse light
@@alexmuenster2102 I'm talking about public perception. It's the same thing as shooting an unarmed man.
@@Potatoshanekolike Russia has any reputation to lose
Using a nuke against a non nuclear nation. There’s only one nation that dropped a nuke and it was against another that didn’t have one so where did you get context for this assumption? NATO and its allies are definitely the loudest in the room. You can’t even see/hear what the Russians are saying first hand as it’s been censored
this nuclear nonsense is just propaganda to get more funding. complete nonsense
With the issues they have been having with equipment functionality, is it possible they have fear that even the nukes will just fall on their own people?
Possible, but also the treat was against nato, not against Ukraine that needed to be liberated/rescued. Now Ukraine is crossing the border into Russia, not nato and throwing a nuke on Kiev would go against the propaganda of liberating Ukraine ...
Two points
1) the Russians were told everything is going to plan. So kind of a wake up call. Like the Tet offensive. Even in Russia, don’t underestimate the impact of super bad unscripted information.
2) building a platoon badge takes men, machines and material and it’s easily seen. The combat engineers are actually harder to replace.
Ha ha. No. That's magical thinking buddy. The Russians already knew of the planned incursion. Hence the failure of Ukraine to reach its objective the nuclear plant. And now withdrawing from the sliver of kursk region they entered is an immediate death sentence. Unfortunately western media does not deal in reality anymore so we have to go to media of more neutral or non aligned countries. And its quite clear what the current situation is. Thank God for internet.
incompetence corruption, remember this is russia where human decency , bar is setup sow low, that they tripping with evry step
Most objective analysis I’ve heard since the Kursk operation . Thanks Mr. Zeihan!
😂😂😂 tou must be joking
Your IQ must be tiny. His analysis is bs.
Objective?
Ukraine joins Germany and France in successful invasions of Russia.
You should check out Ward Carroll on the F-16s then.
Like, Ward is okay, but the real gem is his recurring guest, Justin Bronk.
Also, anything you can find of Fiona Hill (on Russia at least, I cannot speak about other topics) is absolutely amazing.
Mark Galeotti's In Moscow's Shadows is also worth giving a try (but he's more musing/wandering in his speech, and getting solid data out of Russia to test his ideas has become hard since the breaking of ties etc - so your mileage may vary, style/preferences wise)
And the channel Beau of the Fifth Column has _a lot_ of wisdom when it comes to foreign policy and boots on the grounds practicalities.
Imagine if the Ukrainians weren’t being forced to fight with one hand tied behind their backs.
Imagine if they had agreed to the peace deal they were about to sign back in April of 2022 before Boris screwed that up
@@CM-gj6ut They wouldn’t have been able to launch their special military operation to liberate the Kursk Ukrainian People’s Republic from the yoke of Russian Fascism.
@@DriveByBacon how many propaganda buzzwords can you say in one sentence?
@@digestiveissue7710 What is the Russian word for sarcasm?
@@CM-gj6ut It was not a peace deal - it was Russian request for Ukraine's unconditional surrender.
One of conditions was that in case Russia attacks Ukraine again, signatories and Ukraine safety guarantors (e.g. EU, USA) were supposed to consult first with Russia and get Russia's go-ahead before helping Ukraine to repel Russians.
Yes, you read it right :)
Then recently, Russians sent some fractional documents from that deal to some media people and these useful-you-know-who built a sandcastle out of it.
Read more about it.
Do not be useful-you-know-who too....
It's not the Ukrainian military in Kursk, it's little blue men. Referendum being held soon. Nothing to see here.
No the blue men are in your ma.
I might be a bit early, but Kursk is Part of Taiwanese Territory since ancient Times😂
It's not Ukrainian intent to add Russia to Ukraine, so they will not be holding Fake referendums.
American mercenary PMCs, for plausible deniability.
@@BobAbc0815
Chinese historical lands.
Vladivostok is Chinese forever!
if Russia used nukes, China and India would buy no more from Russia.
Who would Russia sell too?
Where would they get food?
answer: you should have thought of that beforehand
'..that has the full support of every western country'
Forgot to mention that eastern countries might want a piece too, like China?
Or, more importantly, separatists previously oppressed/ suppressed by might decide to rise up and join..
..as many Russian soldiers have not only been captured, not only surrendered in such quantities as to have slowed Ukraine's 'special military operations' but actually asked to join Ukraine in them.
The reserv'ed'ness and caution here was surprisingly so. Didn't expect a cheerleaders skirt & pom poms with a enthusiastically supportive cheer, but.. it ended on an up note vs how it started I s'pose. 👏 👏 👏
Viva La Revolucíon!
No, but seriously, someone kicks in your front door, how you gonna go? That they haven't done this already given how unbelievably much ass they've kicked up to this point surprises me. Hopefully the rest of the EurAsian Economic Community takes note and grows even more of a pair. The nuclear blackmail Europe & Co have lived under for 2z3 generations at this point is as bullshit as nuclear blackmail is and then some.
good afternoon from Ukraine, Peter. We are going to surprise you even more
🇺🇦🔱💪🏻
No you wont. No one took your bait.
Get outta here ruski bot@@joeschmoe8965
@@joeschmoe8965copious copium 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@joeschmoe8965 learn Ukraianian or RUN Komrade .
They were not allowed to use NATO gear to attack from Ukraine so they drove it into Russia and used it. NATO gear in Russia what an humiliation
I live in Bulgaria which was part of the Eastern block back in the day. As a result we had to learn to speak Russian and can watch their side of the story.
In the Western part of the internet English speaking people like yourself see it as some major victory and a humiliation to Russia. In the Russian speaking world this seen as a distraction and a last ditch attempt of a losing enemy.
Perception is a big thing.
@@cowboybeboop9420 fortunately, most of us here aren't brainwashed zombies that the russkis are, so it doesn't really matter what they say on their TV.
Great!
@@cowboybeboop9420 thanj you for your comment, this differance of perspectives is very intresting - could you comment on whether the eastern-russian speaking world perspective is influenced (and if yes to what extent) by the official russian media?
@@victorspencer4885 of course they are trying to brainwash their citizens, why would not they?
Good insight! Thank you! The Ukrainians have changed the parameters. They remain flexible and enigmatic. Way to Go!
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Perhaps it’s time for Japan to take back its northern islands….
Was just thinking the same thing
China can retake Manchuria as well. Watch. This is like when Bush Jr. broke the Middle east.
Xi is waiting for weaker Russia to take back Manchuria
maybe it's time for Muslims to culturally enrich your country?
And the half of Sakhalin it used to own. Maybe all of it.
Be careful with rhetoric calling someone a wimp for not using their nukes
The Russians are in a real dilemma now. I kind of expect them to use at least tactical nukes. If they don't they have a real political problem on their hands, they look weak, and Russians hate looking weak.
This guy is and unabashedly russophobic. Doesn’t even pretend to be impartial…which he ought to be. Of course you have the usual cheerleaders in the comments section regardless. Does V.Putin strike anyone as a coward? No he does not and I look forward to seeing a response to the “defensive alliance Nato’s” trained and supported Ukrainian incursion….
@@johnoconnell3842 Russophobic? That's a pretty cringe worthy term.
Of course Peter is biased against Russia, he is heavily involved with their enemies... And many times he underestimates Russia.
That said the term Russophobic is stupid and should disappear forever.
It's just ridiculous to actually belive they'll use nukes unless the state's existence or Putin himself is seriously threatened. And the more people say things like we can do x thing or they'll use nukes.
@@johnoconnell3842How does Putin's 🐓 feel in your backside?
Is not push, is special military operation
exactly, don't let anyone believe this is a War. This is a Special Military Operation with the objective to De-Putinfy Russia.
Ah, a fellow man of culture. HLC is great
oh wow, google removed my comment
@@EnterpriseKnight first time?
😂
Ukraine keeps looking for red lines but they can never find them. Maybe those red lines only exist in Washington.
Maybe the real red lines are the friends we made along the way
@@alexbrokholm4883 can you explain? I don't get it..
Sullivan's "finest" invention
@@tepesvoda464 it's a joke reference.
It's a movie trope where the main characters are on a journey in search of treasure, and thoughout the story, the main characters will meet people that will assist them in the journey, where they through hardship along the way will learn about eachother and become friends.
The story will often end with the treasure being lost or a dissapointment, the group will be sad, until one member says "maybe the real treasure was the friends we made along the way" to hint that the journey wasn't all for nothing.
You might also have heard the saying once: "it's not about the destination, it's about the journey"
From what I know about the reality of Russia and Putin, I'd say the real 'red lines' are a whole lot closer to Moscow and St. Petersburg. Everything beyond those two areas are sacrificial.
Nato Modernizes Millitary Equipment while Russia defends Kursk with World War 2 Artillery.
Nato has modern weapons - but they have a significant lack in quantity which is a big problem
Didn't Ukraine retire the Abrahams from the front line because they were losing them too fast? What's the point of modern equipment if you're not allowed to use it?
@@189Blakeit's an artillery war. Not a fire and maneuver war.
NATO has a De-Escalation Disease...
Then WTF is dron fighting and tranch fighting??? @@Dularr
When Peter sticks to GeoPolitics (instead of discussing party politics), he's amazing.
Well some of us are not as disconnected from reality as others and appreciate his excellent takes on both.
I couldn’t agree more. I love his GeoPolitical explanations. His American political vids feels like watching MSNBC.
Basically Russia had no plans for defense 😁
Welcome back from your backpacking trip Peter! I'm glad you are safe and I hope it went well enough. Thank you for your analysis as always, you are much appreciated.
Russia's resources aren't endless. They are starting to run low on equipment, and they will run out of people who are willing to go to war in a Scobey do van.
in st petersburg city 20.000 dolllars to enlist for 6 months , for poorest russian asian minority 2.000 dollars , they will never run out of people , russian value human life , in ww2 1941 russian population 170 millions germany 70 , 23 millions russian die 8 millions german , in ukraine under 600.000 russian 164.000 ukrainian, russian population 1945- 143 millions 2024 -144 , german 62 in 2024 -83 millions , in 79 years grew 1 million german21 usa 196 millions, 25 percent russian men die before 55 , on potato cabbage vodka daiet , mortality 2022-68 in2024-66 , german 78 , russian economy is 3rd world on life support , g.d.p. 30 military 3 civill domestic , infrastructure absolute junk from soviet era , russia is winning destroying ther economy population.
😂😂😂😂😂
Jinkies! Blyat!
That is a TON of information for 11 minutes o7 thank you for your time
Fake information 😂
More like dis- and misinformation. (I forget which is which but it doesn't matter, this guy spews both.)
Misinformation.
Nobody thought that Ukraine had the reserves to invade Russia. Then thousands appeared. What makes you think that they have no more reserves?
The invasion of Ukraine and the following sanctions of the western economic system have completely upended Russian trade with the West, which forced them to completely shift to the Chinese dominated land based Asian trading system. Xi doesn’t like the war (probably because it’s taking too long), but he decided to give Putin an almost free hand in Ukraine in exchange for what can be summarised as beneficiary trade relations. This allows the Chinese to somewhat reduce their dependence on ocean going trade and therefore American non-interference, which is great for them as they are still planning to „unify“ large parts of the South China Sea. Now if Putin decides to use a nuclear weapon during an offensive war, many of the adjacent smaller nations will most likely try to get their own nukes, which inevitably will nullify all military options the Chinese ever had and probably ever will have to achieve their goals. Xi won‘t have that and Putin knows it. He really has no other option than playing nice with Xi, as he has already burnt down all bridges to the West.
Good work PZ..
Feels like its all coming to a head.
🇬🇧🇺🇦
Oh man, have I been looking forward to this one.
Who hasn't? 😄
Because you have no life or hobby
May we have a conversation about the disparity between who would order a nuclear strike from Russia, versus who might actually enact said strike?
It is entirely possible that Putin has been pushing the launch nukes button for months without anything happening.
>>May we have a conversation about the disparity between who would order a nuclear strike from Russia, versus who
Great question. It has been on my mind for a few days now.
@@NombuleloBlose-v2s Same here! I suspect we have made plain to Russia's senior military leaders that we are watching them. "We see them when they're sleeping; we know when they're awake..." and we know where they, AND THEIR FAMILIES are, 24/7/365. "They can run, but they can't hide"!
@@flyingspirit3549 Rumor in the intelligence community is that the US regularly lets Putin know that they know exactly where he is right now, even when he's at some secret location, so that he understands that if a nuke flies, he's the first target in a retaliatory strike. One advantage to Russia being a one man show dictatorship is that the one man will do whatever he can to stay alive and in power. In a way it's easier to deal with than an ideological state like the USSR, where taking out the leadership just ensured a full counter-strike from the ideologically motivated military. Having removed all his political opponents and filled the power structure with weak sycophants, Putin is basically a single point of failure for the whole thing.
This cavalier attitude toward nukes from US foreign policy experts is kind of disturbing.
I agree, I feel like Kamala is going to lead us to apocalypse
@@davidlibin3754 So? Most Christians would call that a good thing,
@@NorthForkFisherman Your logic disturbing. The results of this election may determine the fate of the world in a way that is nuclear for us all.
The "lob a nuke" talk is particularly disturbing as if a nuclear exchange would involve a handful of cities being flattened and then we all take a deep breath now that we got it out of our system vs. reality, i.e. one nuke is launched = all nukes are launched and every single person you know is dead or dying in under an hour without so much as a chance to say goodbye.
Think of it this way, if the modern world cant handle literally the most bloodsoaked fought over land in history being fought over, between a nuclear armed county and a small nation state. We are fucked, like there is no future.
But nukes aren't flying and the war has continued, so that would suggest reality is far less cavalier. Nukes mean no more nazi world conquests, no more empires annexing entire nations, it forces less extreme war.
Until one actually flies and we ge to see what seceret technology the U.S has been hiding to intercept then
Greetings from Loveland, CO! And Slava!
It's cute that everyone thinks the Russians have nukes or that they still work. Remember a LOT of them went missing after the USSR fell. Whether they have techs left to build and maintain them is another o0en question.
probablynotmyname8521 I think they have tactical nukes, but keeping ICBMs Launch reading 24/7 is a whole other commitment.
@josephdoiron8376 I'm not even convinced of tactical ones, nukes are finicky weapons that require a lot of maintenance and precision. Strapping them to giant rockets definitely adds a massive layer of complexity but there has to be serious doubts as to whether tactical weapons, even if launched would actually detonate.
This is very stupid thinking. Just because the Russians haven`t used nukes YET doesn`t mean they won`t use nukes EVER.
If you look at the period prior to WW1 there were a bunch of times when war could have broken out and it DIDN`T. What ultimately happened was that the Great Powers sleepwalked into a major war. We don`t want this to happen now.
You can't assume your enemy is incompetent or that his equipment doesn't work. That's how you end up thinking you'll roll into Kyiv in three days and three years later struggle to hold Kursk.
@Elbuarto When red lines are continually crossed, you have to stop letting fear of the consequences limiti your actions.
As Stalin put it: Nukes only work on People with weak Nerves (and he didnt even have to worry about the West-Wind-Zone)
Been waiting for this one 🎉
30 years of advancing toward Moscow, and only about 300 miles to go! Giddyup!
My impression is that the foundational dilemma for Russia is that their soldiers and officers just don’t want to fight. There is apathy, complacency, no urgency, no sense of courage and self sacrifice. Yes, there are some hung ho types in their military, but the bulk aren’t motivated to fight with distinction, integrity, honor, and purpose. As a result, so many just die in the meat grinder tactics and that kind of warfare spreads up and down the rank and file to just discourage everyone to fight with vigor and dedication.
I see a flaw in your analysis Peter. 4:49
Very specific, particular pieces of recently delivered equipment and individual units which underwent western training are very very very very VERY strangely absent from any of the footage coming from Kursk, as well as absent from Donetsk. Also, Russian reports tell of about 10,000 Ukrainian troops in the area, which is way less than those reserves they have. A lot of people still think Ukraine has a small secondary force waiting to strike again to follow up the Kursk incursion.
120.000 reserves belarussian border
They have used some of the older equipment, like the German Marder or the American Stryker. That has been on footage recently.
Go 🇺🇦
😂😂😂
🇷🇺
Some commentators are asking, 'where is the lost 100,000?' After the 24-27 Ukrainian mobilization earlier this year, and given the 3 month minimum infantryman training time, there are divisional sized units missing from the front....plus a turnover of experienced brigades being pulled from the lines and replaced with territorial defense troops. I have not seen one video of a Leopard 2 tank in Kursk. They still have over 100 of these in active service. Methinks something is brewing and NOT in Kursk.
Also their F-16s are coming online. My guess is Crimea is the real goal
I'll add the significant leadership advantage Ukraine has. Not only their own military leaders in commanders but also the advanced warning they receive and logistical support from other countries.
Ukraine matters guy made a thumbnail of ukraine attacking crimea for his recent vid
@@arau8310 A few serious military commentators suggest that Ukraine has the most capable Military in Europe. 2 years of war will do that.... I agree, Western sigint and logistical support add another whole level of competency.
@@ovariantrolley2327 Georgy is switched on and shouldn't be dismissed. He may be onto something, or it could be what Budanov wants them to think lol
It took just 3 weeks for Peter to arrive to this Russia "incident"‼️
At 10:10-:16 referring to the Russians launching nukes, Peter says, either they’re unwilling or unable to launch act..” Could it be restraint due to the extreme nature of nukes, as possibly a third choice.
I'm not sure about it being the last of the reserves. By what information I I've been paying attention to it would seem they have at least another 5 or 6 brigades. Time will tell.
Great analysis Peter! Thank you
I doubt the Territory itself is the Goal to begin with.
There is 3 Reasons for this.
1.
It Forces Russia to Spread its Forces alot more. Because right now Ukraine has to Fully Staff its Frontlines to prevent Russian Attacks.
While Russia was Safe behind its Border and thus could just put minimal Numbers of Conscripts there.
2.
What You call a War Movement is also Importand. (And often Overlooked by Many). Russian Doctrine and Weaponry is Focused on Trench Warfare. Slow Moving Frontlines where Russia can Pound Enemies with their massive numbers of Towed Artillery. Is what Russia likes.
But Western Equipment and Doctrine is Focused on Maneuver Warfare. Its far more Accurate and Mobile but far less Numerous Artillery and other Units are of Limited use in Trench Warfare. But are Great for a Fast moving Frontline where Towed Artillery becomes exceedingly hard to use and exceedingly easy to destroy.
3.
And Finally. There is the Morale Effects. This Incursion is a Huge Morale Boost for Ukrainians. Especially after being Slowly Pushed back over the last Months.
Likewise on the Russian Side its a massive Blow to Morale. Because this heavily scrapes on the Russian claims about everything going according to plan. And Ukraine just delaying the Inevitable.
biggest impact on russian civill population
@@albertmaziarz6739 And for those commenting on the relatively low reaction from that population for the moment, the media is downplaying what little they are reporting and the great Putin is not to be seen or heard, except on some foreign trip to a stan.
All the best to Ukraine.
Thanks for taking the time to fill in some of the details
Peter sounds like he’s so plugged into the elitest he’s hoping Russia uses nukes so he can go hide
those ruzzian red lines are actually brown skid marks that they leave behind
bare-ass
putler is a sick joke
It's interesting to call Putin Putler. Hitler had a lot of military success at the start of WW2, which shocked the world with their successes.
Putin failed from the very start.
Thanks Peter!
A dude that backpacks outside of cell service talking about geopolitics is like taking stock market advice from a guy that lives deep within the Amazon.
The Russian strategy of showering the Ukrainians with artillery to immobilize them requires copious preparation and prepositioning of equipment and personnel, along with a substantial lead time to account for Russia's top-down command structure that hamstrings agility and the ability to react effectively to a changing battlefield. And that's all if they are *not* currently under attack. Ukraine bringing the fight to them dramatically extends this already protracted timeline, and the time it will take for the Kremlin to lay waste to its own territory to "defend" it enough to expel the Ukrainian forces will be great enough that the effect on the war in Ukraine will likely be effectively irreversible.
Russia cannot ignore this invasion, but reacting to it is largely beyond their capability too. The psychological impact cannot be overstated, nor can the effect on Putin's grip on power.
Putin is probably feeling like Alonzo Harris at the end of Training Day.
Either that or he may be Tywin Lannister orchestrating a special wedding banquet for Rob Stark.
"King Kong ain't got shit on me"
wasn't it Putin that said they will use nukes if territorial integrity of Russia is threatened ?
It's Russian legislation that authorises the use of nukes.
@@awf6554 In an authoritarian regime, I am sure legislation is flexible :-)
@thanasisk No doubt!
@@awf6554 Yes, but it's not mandatory, so there's still a choice to be made.
@peterflohr7827 Of course. But the legislation was the basis of the most imposing of Russia's nuclear red lines.
Don’t wish for nukes pal
This all makes me so sad. I wish peace could be found.
You have a decent track record of predicting these things, and I really hope you’re right this time as well.
5:50 "neither do the Russians have the men necessary to eject". The way I see it Putin is going to try to keep his contract army fighting in the Donbas and he's going to give the 200,000 plus conscript army who are only allowed to fight on Russian territory the job of evicting the ukrainians. This has several advantages for Putin, enlarging the force that can actually fight and giving the conscript forces combat experience, Plus eventually pressuring Ukraine on their northern front with the conscripts and putting him in a better operational situation.
That said the ukrainians were losing the war of attrition against a larger foe with a better industrial base, they had to do something and this was pretty brilliant
Conscripts fighting battle-hardened Ukrainian elite brigades? What could possibly go wrong?
That's the dilemma that Ukraine wants. Using conscripts means using the sons and daughters of Putin's supporters instead of "volunteer" minorities. This would bring the war home to a lot more Russians.
The "incursion that crossed the international border" happened *at least* in 2014 when Russia invaded crimean peninsula.
I agree 100% on the nuke not flying. Russia at this point is no longer a nuclear power. It has nuke, but no power, therefore it's just a nuke storage and janitor is holding a key. No need to worry about their nuke at this point.
some times I wonder if they really do have Nukes? lol
Doesn't seem like they're confused to me. They seem to be ignoring the Ukrainians and enjoying the now-easier time they're having in Donbas without those extra Ukrainians resources which went into Kursk.
This guy talks like nuclear weapons are no big deal. He downplay how much of an escalation it is to launch a nuclear weapon.
Russia is unable to detonate nukes. Plutonium nukes require deuterium, which has a shelf life if 13 years. Considering the poor upkeep on the cheaper weapons, the more used weapons, we can assume the nuclear weapons have been neglected the same or worse due to cost and lack of potential use. Even if 1/10 of their weapons are operational, Russia would be hard pressed to know which ones will fire, let alone detonate. If the targeting systems of their missles show anything, if an ICBM is launched from Russia its as likely to hit Russia as much as Ireland, Spain, or the Artic.
I think you meant tritium, not deuterium.
Deuterium is a stable isotope of hydrogen. Tritium is the unstable one, with a half life of approximately a decade, yes
Ukraine just completed a mobilization and training period - not only are there more troops, they have started to receive mass shipments of weapons from abroad. I would call Kursk a feint. What they'll do from there is anyone's guess but I'd say Crimea. If they can get the Russians to commit on Kursk that will fix the "Eye of Sauron" (Putin) and his attention on Kursk - allowing them to operate elsewhere more easily.
5-7 extra brigades are yet to be engaged.
The extensive defences in occupied territory are still there, and they've repelled major Ukrainian assaults already. I wouldn't be too optimistic.
Very unlikley
LOL cope - the Ukrainians can't even defend Donbas. They tried Crimea last year and Russia is much stronger since then
@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 OK bot,....Now crawl back into your vodka bottle...
The Chinese, who have just crossed the 50% sales line of diminishing ICE vs rising EV automobiles, to regain breathable air in their cities, would not appreciate Russia poisoning it with nuclear fallout.
Belgorod is fed via a rail line going south-east from Kursk. UKR is nowhere near it yet. RU can easily take 10% of the forces from Donbas (30K) without impacting the front. This may not be enough to push UKR out of Kursk, but may be enough to stop further UKR advance. UKR has at least 5 brigades left in reserve. Question is where they are going to use them. Probably somewhere else. Then the Kursk operation makes sense as a binding operation. Other than that, it does not impact RU logistics much and the value and size of the taken territory is not enough to exchange it for anything significant.
This video hasn’t aged well. Ukrainian losses in this diversionary offensive are proving to be more heavy than worthwhile (as the diversion has essentially failed). Meanwhile Russia continues to advance in Donbas.
So it apparently wasn’t worth it. Ukraine was doing better concentrating on defense.
I am interested to hear Ritters and McGregors views on the Kursk incursion. See what excuses they can conjure up!
Probably say WW3 is gonna happen any second now
Слава Україні! 💙💛
😂😂😂
My likely overly simplistic opinion is that Russia is keeping the nukes capped because China primarily and India secondarily are keeping them on an economic leash
You're not wrong about that. I think it's very possible that the Chinese have quietly suggested to Mr. Putin that they don't want to see any nukes brought out to play with.
You're not wrong. Neither country could get along without the west without taking a major hit financially. I'm not conceited enough to think that they couldn't eventually recover but current leadership may not survive to see the recovery - and they are not willing to sacrifice themselves for the "Greater Good" as they demand others to.
chaina to prolong thys war is they intrest , as of to day they own russia economy
@@albertmaziarz6739 probably not wrong. China is biding their time so that Russia grows weaker and also distracts the west. China wants a piece of Russias far east.
They are keeping the nukes capped because they cannot launch them. If they do they are gone. Putin has to exit and never come back.
Nicely Done. Thank you for your incite
If Ukrainian figures are anywhere near accurate, Russia is now losing 50 artillery a day, which amounts to over 18,000 in a year. Russian advantage in arty is drying up rapidly. Then what do the Russians do, they rely so heavily on arty.
15 seconds since this is released talk about great timing! Thank You 👏
(70) THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name"
(That My mysteries are revealed and openly seen, and no longer hidden, and entirely because of My grace and mercy. In My kingdom, there is no perversion or deception, and there is no worldliness; that is, there is no smell of a corpse. Rather, all is righteousness and justice; all is generosity and faithfulness, with nothing hidden or hidden. The group of people who truly rule rely on My predestination and choice, and there is absolutely no human will in it. I have said when I reigned over all things, I was the wise God who held all power, and I was strict with all, I was completely merciless, and completely without personal feelings. This work I finished before time began , leaving them without a position, leaving them without a place to do their work. None of My chosen people-those whom I predestined and chose-can be possessed by evil spirits ever and rather always will be holy. Now, I show you, one by one, the things that were previously hidden. Arise and cooperate with Me! I will certainly not mistreat anyone who faithfully devotes themselves to Me. Give yourself completely to Me! What you eat, what you wear, and your future are all in My hands; I will set everything right, so that you will have endless enjoyment, which you will never run out of.)
Almighty God said
That My MYSTERIES are REVEALED and OPENLY seen, and NOT HIDDEN, is ENTIRELY due to My GRACE and MERCY. Furthermore, that My WORD appears AMONG PEOPLE, and is NO longer COVERED, is also due to My GRACE and MERCY. 🙏
I LOVE ALL those who SINCERELY--HEARTEDLY SPEND THEMSELVES for Me and DEDICATE THEMSELVES to Me. I AM ANGRY against those who were BORN from Me but do NOT KNOW Me, and STILL RESIST Me. I WILL not FORSAKE ANYONE who has a SINCERE--HEART for Me, RATHER I WILL DOUBLE that person's BLESSINGS. I will punish doubly those who are ungrateful and violate My kindness, and I will not just leave them alone. ☀️
In My KINGDOM, THERE is NO PERVERSION or DECEPTION, and NO WORLDLINESS; that is, NO CORPSE smell. Rather, ALL is RIGHTEOUSNESS and righteousness; ALL is boldness and FAITHFULNESS, with NOTHING HIDDEN or hidden. ALL is FRESH, ALL is FUN, and ALL is IMPROVEMENT. Anyone who smells--still dead cannot REMAIN in My KINGDOM, but rather RULE with My ROD of IRON. ALL the ENDLESS MYSTERIES, from the FIRST TIME to the PRESENT, are FULLY REVEALED to YOU---the GROUP of PEOPLE I HAVE GAINED in the LAST DAYS. Don't you feel blessed? 🙏💐
Furthermore, the days when everything will be openly revealed are the days when you will be part of My reign. 🙏
The GROUP of PEOPLE who REALLY RULE DEPEND on My PREDESTINATION and CHOICE, and have ABSOLUTELY NO HUMAN will here. 🙏
Anyone who dares to take part in this will have to experience punishment from My hand, and such people will be the target of My fiery wrath, this is another side of My righteousness and majesty. I SAID I RULE OVER ALL THINGS, I AM the WISE GOD who HOLDS all POWER, and I am strict over all; I am completely ruthless, and ABSOLUTELY without PERSONAL FEELINGS. ☀️
I treat everyone (no matter how well-spoken he is, I will not let him go) with My righteousness, righteousness, and majesty, while enabling everyone to see more clearly the wonderfulness of My works, as well that is also the meaning of My works. One by one, I punish the evil spirits for all kinds of actions they commit, casting them one by one into the eternal abyss.
This WORK I FINISHED before TIME began, LEAVING them WITHOUT a POSITION, LEAVING them with NO PLACE to do their WORK. None of My CHOSEN PEOPLE---those who were pre---DESIGNED and CHOSEN by Me---can ever be possessed by evil spirits and INSTEAD will always be HOLY. 🙏💐
As for those who are not predestined and chosen, I will pass them over to Satan, and I will not let them stay. In all respects, My JUSTICE and My MAJESTY are INCLUDED in My administrative orders. I will not spare one of Satan's actions, but will throw them with their bodies into Hades, because I hate Satan. I will not let it go lightly, but will destroy it completely, not giving it the slightest chance to do its work. ALL that SATAN has DESTROYED in any way (that is, the objects of disaster) are under the great arrangement of My own hand. ☀️
Do not think that this happened as a result of Satan's ferocity; know that I am the ALMIGHTY GOD who RULES the ENTIRE UNIVERSE and all THINGS! 🙏
For Me, there is NO PROBLEM UNSOLVED, and especially NO THING UNDOED or any WORD UNSPOKEN. People should not act as My advisers. Beware of falling by My hand and cast into Hades. I'm telling you this! 🙏
Those who actively COOPERATE with Me NOW are the SMARTEST, and they will avoid losses and escape the pain of judgment. ALL of these are My arrangements, predestined by Me. 🙏
Don't COMMENT vulgarly and DON'T SPEAK disparagingly, THINKING you're so good. Was it not all by My predestination? You, who will be My counselors, are shameless! You do not know your own height; how low it is! Even so, you think it is a small matter, and you do not recognize yourselves. Always, you do not listen to My words, causing My careful efforts to be wasted, and do not even realize that these are manifestations of My grace and mercy.
Instead, you try to demonstrate your own intelligence over and over again. Do you remember this?
What chastisement should people who think they are so good receive?
Careless and unfaithful to My words, and not taking them to heart, you use Me as a pretense to do this and that. Bad people! When will you be able to fully consider My heart? ☀️
You have no regard for this so calling you "evil" is not mistreatment of you. It really suits you!
NOW, I AM SHOWING YOU, ONE by ONE, the THINGS that were HIDDEN BEFORE. The GREAT RED DRAGON is THROWN into the ETERNAL DEEP and COMPLETELY DESTROYED, because there is ABSOLUTELY NO POINT in KEEPING it any longer; means it doesn't serve CHRIST. 🙏
After this, the RED things will DISAPPEAR; little by little, they WILL DISAPPEAR UNTIL they are LOST. I DO what I SAY; this is the EVENT of My WORK. 🙏
REMOVE human UNDERSTANDING; EVERYTHING I SAID, I DID. ☀️
All those who are wise bring only destruction and reproach upon themselves, and do not want to live. Therefore, I will satisfy You, and I will certainly not keep such people. After this, the population will rise to excellence while those who are not actively working with Me will be swept away into nothingness. The ones I approve of are the ones I WILL MAKE PERFECT, and I will REJECT NO ONE. There are NO contradictions in what I SAY.
Those who do not actively cooperate with Me will suffer more chastisement, although, in the end I will surely save them. However, WHEN THAT TIME COMES, THE SCOPE of their LIVES will be DIFFERENT. Do you want to be that kind of person? 🙏
RISE and HELP Me! ☀️
I will certainly not mistreat anyone who faithfully devotes themselves to Me. TO THOSE who SINCERELY--HEARTEDLY DEDICATE THEMSELVES to Me, I WILL GIVE ALL My BLESSINGS to YOU. GIVE YOURSELF COMPLETELY to Me!
WHAT you EAT, WHAT you WEAR, and your FUTURE are ALL in My HANDS; I will ARRANGE EVERYTHING RIGHT, so that you WILL HAVE ENDLESS ENJOYMENT, which YOU will NEVER END UP.☀️🙏
This is because I SAID, "To those who sincerely spend for Me, I will surely bless You abundantly." ALL BLESSINGS WILL COME TO EVERY PERSON who sincerely--heartedly SPENDS HIMSELF for Me. 🙏💐
From "The WORD Appears in the Flesh"
Fulfilled in "In the beginning He was the Word, the Word was with God, and the Word was God" (John 1:1). and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:13).
📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 ful. (Mat. 16:18)
Ryan McBeth explains it well: Create dilemmas for your enemy, not problems. A problem has a solution. A dilemma has several solutions, all of which have undesirable consequences. Russia will need to re-deploy troops out of the Donbas to address Kursk, which will leave Donbas vulnerable AND get troops on the move where theyre more vulnerable. When asked about his thoughts on the Kursk encroachment last week, President Biden literally said "Kursk has given Putin quite a dilemma"
One of your best analyses to date. 👏
Another good point I've seen pointed out elsewhere is that the Kursk oblast is Russia's breadbasket. A significant amount of Russia's food production has now been hampered right before the grain harvest season. This is likely to drive up food prices in Russia and/or hamstringing one of Russia's few remaining viable export revenue streams. Also, that region is one of the major iron ore production regions of Russia. While it's unlikely that the loss of iron or wheat will be enough to cause major disruption, it will drive up prices, hamper heavy industry and put additional political pressure on Moscow to go to the bargaining table.
Malcolm Nance was very firm on saying that Russia would not use nukes in Ukraine because... WIND PATTERNS.
Dang son you get around. Bravo!
How does he
run so fast?!
Or just use different backdrops
About the Nukes willingness -
I'd say that there's probably a difference between attacking with a Ukrainian force capable of taking a part of a province...
Versus let's say the US crossing the Russian border.
You are right here man. People here are expecting Ukraine's incursion with tanks and artillery to mean Russia's red line. I think the world would see a nuke reaction from Russia at this stage or type of incursions to be premature.
Great analysis. Something to mention though. The west has provided a lot of aid and a lot of it has arrived in the last 9 months or so. As far as we can see not much of that is being utilized in Kursk. Also Zelensky signed a decree in March requiring all men 18 to 60 to register for service. We've seen droves of people lining up to register. So then where is all this aid? Where are all these men? Some say Kursk is also a diversion and they are going to open yet another front.
It is foolish to evaluate the success of any invasion of Russia in the summer time. Pure silliness.
You know this invasion is at most 40km from the boader right? You acting like they've marched 2000km into Russia
@@Nathan-jh1ho correct. And it's summer time. I look forward to an update from Peter in January 2025. I'll bet Ukraine isn't still in Russia by then.
was waiting for your take on the Ukraine Invasion, thanks keep it up
Thanks
Putin doesn’t know if there nukes will actually work
And I bet he is pretty sure the US nukes would work.
Jingoistic nonsense
@@sburns2421 No it's physics. Even a newly manufactured nuclear weapon has a substantial failure rate - much less stuff that's been half-lifed away. That's a significant part of nuclear weapons research - not making a bomb that works when fresh off the line, but one that still works after 15 or 30 years. I don't know if russia has been reconditioning their arsenal but there is a HUGE business for this in USA.
Well don’t you bet my life on that!
@@brianwelch1579 The only part of your response that matters is where you said "I don't know"
You assume their inventory is just rusting away. But in reality the people that do know in Russia would never disclose their ongoing maintenance.
Putin does not strike me as a person that bluffs. If they decide to use a tactical nuke I am confident that specific device will have all its maintenance current.
When the original Russian invasion bogged down, I joked that Putin would eventually tout the 'liberation' of Belgorod , declare victory and cease hostilities. 😶😑😐🤨
This was not supposed to be a prediction!
Peter has great, interesting analysis of all topics. I think that anyone who is surprised by Russia's lack of a nuclear response to Ukraine's invasion of Kursk Oblast either just hasn't been paying attention or has swallowed too much of Putin's information operations. As Peter alludes to, using nukes has too many downsides for Russia. Also, Russia has been proving for 2.5 years that its "red lines" mean nothing and that it requires no "triggers" for escalation: Russia escalates as much as it wants and needs no excuse (just a lame excuse for its info ops, maybe). And Russia has clearly shown for almost the entire war that it has already escalated to the maximum: e.g., as much mobilization as it can afford politically and logistically, razing cities to the ground, attacking targets that are clearly in violation of the law of armed conflict, use of weapons that violate the LOAC, treatment of POWs and civilians, abduction of children, and so forth. If it were going to use nukes, it would have done so a long time ago. Anders Puck Nielsen made an excellent analysis of this about two full years ago. Furthermore, it's reasonable to speculate that NATO or the U.S. has explicitly or implicitly told Russia that if it uses nukes, it will get a massive, non-nuclear response that it cannot defend against or recover from. (I don't think that Peter is surprised by Russia's non-use of nukes, but he says that it's major news. I'd say that it may be significant, but it's not really a new insight that wasn't inferable long ago.)
Why would they nuke Ukraine?
Ukraine is a brother country.