Fantastic stuff .....Thanks Blake for bringing best Saturday morning show for adults, anybody who has listened and not done well in these markets needs to take a hard look in the mirror. I am humbled at how spot on Jim has been. Thank You both!!!!
Hi thanks both. One of the best shows to watch over the weekend. Great analysis. I was bullish dxy but turn out Jim was right. Question is what SnP does from there, most likely a B wave bounce…and then will see. I see everyone over weekend is bearish and suggesting to sell stocks and then Berkshire selling 50% apple holding adds to negativity.
Hi Guys, great stuff as always. Great point about institutions way overweight tech and underweight general market -- AND bonds. The fact that TLT took a long time to develop makes the base even stronger. I've been telling people (of course nobody believes me -lol-) that the Magnificent 7 is a massive contrary indicator, it blows away the term Nifty Fifty. It's not if, but when, which could be now. Here's a contrary opinion that nobody thinks is remotely possible, after a historic bond bear market. What if the trend from 1982 in rates is still in place, this was a displacement due to the pandemic and not a change in trend - universally people are on the inflation camp, could that camp be too crowded?
Thank you. The challenge for bonds will be supply Neither political party will address the deficit and during the next recession the deficit will be above $3 trillion. My long term bias is predicated on the 5 wave decline in Treasury bonds and TLT from March 2020 to October 2023. This suggests that the October 2023 low will be exceeded
@@JimWelshMacro-Market-Trends thanks for the reply Jim, I know you've said elliot waves work maybe a third to half of the time, I'm with you their a valuable tool, but not the be all end all. 5 waves terminated the spx decline in march 2009, so there is that, it appears china is in a deflationary spiral ala Japan, AI is deflationary CRE deflationary, I know everybody believes the janet yellen and jay pow will bring out the big guns and save us, but will it work this time, TBD. Lowering rates for people that are already levered won't work, if they do bring out the fiscal cannon...
Jim many thanks comprehensive as always got one question you previously mentioned savers and how they are now spending their savings and as they will eventually run low this will impact the economy as will rising credit card debt? Are we close to that point or is there plenty of credit and savings still available?
John - Savings have been run down for the bottom 40% but the top 40% have assets - homes stocks - that have increased by 40% since 2019. If/when stocks lose 20% or more those people who start to cut back and they're the ones spending now. Banks have tightened lending standards so small business is being squeezed and banks will tighten more once the economy slows more. Bank lending is procyclical - Lend too much near the end of a the business cycle and tighten as the economy weakens. Like clockwork.
Thanks for the clarification .... I see a number of traders are blaming Japan increasing rates and thereby impacting the carry trade or reverse carry trade investor liquidating their position to pay off Yen loans....I'd love your comments on this?
@@johnfxjohn7247 The Nikkei was down -12% on Monday which set the table for the gap down. The BOJ is the largest shareholder of Japanese stocks and they won't be selling. Institutions were overweight tech stocks and are not done lowering their exposure, so another selling wave is likely after a bounce.
Thank you to Jim on spending his time on Traders Summit and Blakes interviewing skills. Excellent heads-up.
Thank you sir
Fantastic stuff .....Thanks Blake for bringing best Saturday morning show for adults, anybody who has listened and not done well in these markets needs to take a hard look in the mirror.
I am humbled at how spot on Jim has been. Thank You both!!!!
You are so welcome, Alan. Jim is great! And I am glad you are enjoying!
Thanks Blake and Jim again very awakening analysis👏.
Thanks for your comment. You're welcome!
Cheers, Cedrick!
Mr Jim. My shorts printed hugeee. Going to donate to your favorite charity, please let me know what that is.
Glad the analysis was helpful. Are you serious about donating to a charity?
@@JimWelshMacro-Market-Trends yes. Please let me know. My portfolio should open up really nice tomorrow looking at futures now.
Hi thanks both. One of the best shows to watch over the weekend.
Great analysis. I was bullish dxy but turn out Jim was right.
Question is what SnP does from there, most likely a B wave bounce…and then will see. I see everyone over weekend is bearish and suggesting to sell stocks and then Berkshire selling 50% apple holding adds to negativity.
Cheers, AB! Great view there!
Hi Guys, great stuff as always. Great point about institutions way overweight tech and underweight general market -- AND bonds. The fact that TLT took a long time to develop makes the base even stronger. I've been telling people (of course nobody believes me -lol-) that the Magnificent 7 is a massive contrary indicator, it blows away the term Nifty Fifty. It's not if, but when, which could be now. Here's a contrary opinion that nobody thinks is remotely possible, after a historic bond bear market. What if the trend from 1982 in rates is still in place, this was a displacement due to the pandemic and not a change in trend - universally people are on the inflation camp, could that camp be too crowded?
Thank you. The challenge for bonds will be supply Neither political party will address the deficit and during the next recession the deficit will be above $3 trillion.
My long term bias is predicated on the 5 wave decline in Treasury bonds and TLT from March 2020 to October 2023. This suggests that the October 2023 low will be exceeded
@@JimWelshMacro-Market-Trends thanks for the reply Jim, I know you've said elliot waves work maybe a third to half of the time, I'm with you their a valuable tool, but not the be all end all. 5 waves terminated the spx decline in march 2009, so there is that, it appears china is in a deflationary spiral ala Japan, AI is deflationary CRE deflationary, I know everybody believes the janet yellen and jay pow will bring out the big guns and save us, but will it work this time, TBD. Lowering rates for people that are already levered won't work, if they do bring out the fiscal cannon...
Jim many thanks comprehensive as always got one question you previously mentioned savers and how they are now spending their savings and as they will eventually run low this will impact the economy as will rising credit card debt? Are we close to that point or is there plenty of credit and savings still available?
John - Savings have been run down for the bottom 40% but the top 40% have assets - homes stocks - that have increased by 40% since 2019. If/when stocks lose 20% or more those people who start to cut back and they're the ones spending now. Banks have tightened lending standards so small business is being squeezed and banks will tighten more once the economy slows more. Bank lending is procyclical - Lend too much near the end of a the business cycle and tighten as the economy weakens. Like clockwork.
Thanks for the clarification .... I see a number of traders are blaming Japan increasing rates and thereby impacting the carry trade or reverse carry trade investor liquidating their position to pay off Yen loans....I'd love your comments on this?
@@johnfxjohn7247 The Nikkei was down -12% on Monday which set the table for the gap down. The BOJ is the largest shareholder of Japanese stocks and they won't be selling. Institutions were overweight tech stocks and are not done lowering their exposure, so another selling wave is likely after a bounce.