The USA is coming off the biggest financial collapse *EVER* in human history in 2022... *JUST ASK CHINA!* oddly enough there was no QE forever or any of that in fact the FOMC was the last to start lowering rates from the major Central Banks this Year very much an easing cycle now first in 4 Years so for the first time in Generation the American people are going to actually see revealed what a life without raging inflation destroying everything looks like...not some ahem *"esoterica"* to say the least *JUST ASK RUSSIA RIGHT NOW* ahem so yes wrong to look at this election of Trump 2.0 and see only Universal Bad is *THE UNDERSTATEMENT FOR ALL TIME* and yes as well very much part and parcel to a ruinious agenda in so being as well😊😊
- Unemployment spiking - Government stealth liquidity ending now the election is over - Worst risk premium since the 90s - 22x forward P/E - Defaults on cars, mortgages and credit cards spiking - Yield curve uninversion a few months ago - Extending and pretending can't go on forever and the lag effect is taking its toll - the list goes on Art is on something and I'd like to try some of it.
not to mention that that "Forward PE" is not a real # and is based on aggressive growth targets. I've noticed Wall St is always predicting 8-10% earnings growth for NEXT year then "next" year happens and it's always 4-6%. No one ever comes back to apologize for being wrong
Those are not guaranteed. But what is guaranteed is worsening impacts from accelerating abrupt climate change. Think of that as a depression that keeps getting worse and worse and worse for thousands of years. And I'd take stagflation or hyperinflation any day over abrupt climate change. Good luck.
I hit $113k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject.
It's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Myself, I'm guided by Evelyn Vera. for years and highly recommend her I focus on him. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
What impresses me most about Evelyn Vera is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
I love the grounded reality of this channel!!! *If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you..prevent inflation.*
I feel sympathy and empathy for our country, low income earners are suffering to survive, and I appreciate Wayne. You've helped my family with your advice. imagine investing $30,000 and receiving $95,460 after 28 days of trading.
Honestly, our government has no idea how people are suffering these days. I feel sorry for disabled people who don't get the help they deserve. All thanks to Mr Michael Wayne, imagine investing $1000 and receiving $5700 in a few days..
Did someone just mention Mr Wayne!? Damn! You just made my day; what a coincidence.. I've worked with him for over 2years and I can tell how good he is
I really appreciate Adam making the extra effort to bring more bullish perspectives to his forum, but Laffer is over the top. Cheerleader for the incoming administration, plain & simple. Plenty of more measured optimists out there. This was the bull equivalent of bringing Harry Dent on the show. And honestly, you're show DOES do a great job of bringing both perspectives to the fore. Frustrating when Lance always paints you as a bear. Don't listen to him. Keep doing you
Lance isnt that wrong, the number of bearish views outnumber the bullish ones by far. And if you do the reality check on videos on the old channel, many where just plain wrong. Laffer is the other extreme, ridiculously bullish. "Greatest economy for thousand years".. yea right. I guess the boring, realistic opinions just don't sell that well.
@ You have any statistics to back that up? I don’t either so I guess our respective claims are based solely on our own subjective perspectives. That said I’ve watched Adam since square 1. I can confidently state that I have watched 99% of his videos, including the Wealthion days. The sentiment of the show reflects the sentiment in markets by and large. In ‘22 for instance, most (not all, I certainly remember Howell coming on back then) guests were bearish, as were most market participants. In 23’ I’d characterize most guests as being cautiously optimistic, which was a reflection of markets climbing the proverbial wall of worry. You starting to see what I mean here? 24’ has been dialed down cautiously optimism but optimism nonetheless. And Adam gets a bad rep because as a good host he challenges some of these more sanguine or outright exuberant forecasts, thus making him a ‘bear’ in a lot of peoples minds. Again the show reflects the sentiment currently present in markets. Who knows, maybe the bulls will look as ridiculous as the bears in the not too distant future. As for getting it right or wrong this is a macro/markets channel. Anyone honest in that business will admit they’re wrong all the time. Even Druckenmiller is wrong like 40% of the time. If you’re looking for someone with a crystal ball then good luck. Let me know if you find them
I'm 51yrs old. $40,000 weekly and *I'm retired, this video have inspired me greatly in many ways that I remember my past of how I struggled with many things in life to be where I am today!!!!* ❤️
Same here waking up every 14th of each month to 210,000 dollars it's a blessing to l and my family... I can now retire knowing that I have a steady income❤️Big gratitude to Maria Frances Hanlon
After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom.
I envy this man, so full of energy at the age of 84😮, but he's on Trump team and by default he's heavily biased. The best economy and the best stock market ever ahead?? We've been going parabolic for couple of years and this is just a beginning? World is interconnected, US doesn't exist in a vacuum, US sucks all the world liquidity and the world will suffer a recession. I think Trump is stepping on a land mine here and the stock market bubble will bust during his term
I watched this because I like to challenge my bias. But I have to say that there are so many logical inconsistencies in Laffer's approach that this is blue sky thinking at its most extreme.
I started my working career in the late 70's as a purchasing manager. I worked under the pressure of inflation high interest rates stagflation and protectionism. It was chaos and this guy became a joke.
Huh? Regan wasn't in office yet. Stagflation was caused by previous government administrations. Also, did you not understand that monetary policy acts with a lag?
Great video! I’ve been seeking investment guidance cos It seems like I am never able to identify trends properly. Options always go against me and I can't utilize the scanners efficiently. Is it possible to achieve a simple, reproducible passive income strategy that supplements my income and will eventually replace my wage income? Need some advise please
Best thing is to carry out extensive research and be on top of current events. Know how current events can alter share prices and apply logic over your emotions. This is what worked for me. Best of luck
In order to make profits from trading you need loads of experience and a well defined strategy, which most traders don't have. If you trade without the proper preparation, you're most likely to lose your money. Identify the buy/sell ratios and identify the market leaders and most importantly. Diversify! this will help you spread risk.
"Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.".
Fewer and fewer working folks can remember the Reagan boom. Good to see Art telling them how it worked. The national debt immediately becomes a less scary problem when perception changes so that debt holders suddenly have renewed faith in the growth potential of the USA. Turning around the trade deficit is a great way to quickly show evidence that can lead to such changes in debt-holder's perspective. I hope the DOGE folks don't just try to make things more efficient but rather, use their analysis of waste, fraud ,and abuse as persuasive evidence that these institutions must be eliminated, Constitutionally, once and for all time. They must convince voters so that the future isn't just another round of left-right tug-of-war. All human actions are based on the perception of value from the available choices. That perception can certainly be dead wrong in hindsight, but hindsight cannot change past choices no matter how undesirable the actual consequences turned out to be. Perceptions can change instantaneously. I isn't necessarily a long drawn out process except maybe similar to going broke, slowly at first, then all at once. A LOT of perceptions can change ALL AT ONCE when things look especially bad, or after having been so bleak for the past 16 years, suddenly a ray of hope shines above the horizon. Tomorrow, perceptions can change...or the next day... this is a huge unknown. I'm really interested to see how 2025 goes.
We had 1 trillion in debt in 1980. We will shortly have 37 trillion. How the hell can the government handle that level of debt service without massive tax hikes or massive cuts?
sell assets....Fed Govt assets said to be 500 trillion. Make Anwar (Alaska oil field said to have more Oil & Gas than Saudi Arabia) productive and use the cash flow to pay down debt while forcing a balanced budget
Just saw the intro. We're 16 years into a bull market with valuations at record highs. We're probably already in recession. For stocks to continue, everything has to work out perfectly.
I have a lot of respect for Art Laffer, but I think he's way off the mark on this one. Comparing 2025 to 1981 is wild. The country couldn't be more different. Let's look at a few things here: 1981 federal debt to GDP 32%, 2025 it'll be over 120%; federal deficit spend 1981 was 79 billion. 2025 it'll be about 2.4 trillion (that's about 30 times higher); Social Security outlays versus income in 1981, approximated 122.5 billion outlay and 122.6 billion tax (Social Security was net positive for the government). Social Security outlays versus income in 2025, 1.62 trillion vs 1.43 trillion income (net loss for government of 190 billion). Lastly Medicare and Medicaid income versus outlays in 1981, 73 billion out and 45.3 billion in for net loss to government of (28 billion); Medicare and Medicaid for 2022 (couldn't easily find 2025) 1.750 trillion with revenue of 387 billion (now federal tax revenue isn't everything for Medicare and Medicaid since Medicare has premiums and Medicaid is half paid by the states but it's still easily net loss for the government of at least 1 trillion per year). Basically there is no wiggle room for the government here. If they want to reduce the deficit taxes have to go up or entitlements need to be cut. Both things Trump said they would not do. If they want to lower taxes without reducing spending, the only outcome I see is stagflation. If they want to shift tax burdens around like Laffer said, that means the poor get hammered since right now the majority of the tax burden is carried by the top quintile. If they want the federal reserve to reduce their balance sheet of treasuries then yields have to increase making the federal debt more expensive. As pointed out by Lacy Hunt the US savings rate is negative so there's no real money to absorb these treasuries without yield going up. The debt wall is coming and I feel like it's the same thing as when in Game of Thrones they all said "winter is coming."
Whether you agree with his assessment of America’s financial chances over the next 4 years or not (I’ll be surprised but remain hopeful) Art’s enthusiasm is infectious. He’s incredible for nearly 85!!! I hope I’m that chipper at 60 let alone in my 80’s!!!
This time of person is why I hate going to work in Manhattan. When you meet people who are rich and living off the high of the wealth effect, they talk like this guy. Truly don't grasp how crappy the economy is for 80% of people. You can't "deregulate" us out of it. You need to be giving massive pay raises, onshoring jobs, and creating actual jobs - not uber and fast food jobs - and raise rates a little and pop the speculative bubbles and bring down housing. Yeah ....no policy is gonna do that.
Yes you can deregulate out of it. Regulation makes the cost of everything go up, makes jobs disappear overseas, where there is less regulation. China doesn't care if it pollutes; we have to get the last one-millionth particle out or you cannot do it. You probably didn't notice how many jobs disappeared when minimum wage went up to an unaffordable level, so instead of a starting job, there were no jobs. Your comment is exactly the reverse of reality.
The paranoia over the "debt" needs to end. The debt doesn't matter, has never mattered, and never will matter. What DOES matter is govt spending which continues to inject capital and liquidity into the hands of select groups, leading to inflationary pressures and reducing the wealth of the working class.
"It's like pulling teeth to get these people to understand how money works." Joseph Wang, aka "Fed guy", doesn't usually talk about the competence and work ethic of colleagues and bosses from when he worked at the Fed, but made a recent exception. Just one point was about a new boss who said she didn't understand the department's work (I think it was the trading desk), but said she was keen to learn. Wang said something like, you can't coach IQ. He seems like a reasonable guy who wouldn't make such criticism if it wasn't deserved.
The original Adam. The Father of the debt spiral we find ourselves in today. It shows the state of the nation that someone so incompetent is still being sought for counsel. It's all logical. And perhaps incompetence isn't the word. The system is designed to accelerate the transfer of wealth to those at the top and if you love that paradigm Adam err Arthur is your hero. Let's build a monument on the National Mall.
To think we have Reagan era returning should frighten anyone who is not a millionaire. Personally, I will do well. I feel bad for the animal charities that will face lower revenues (rich people do not donate as much), and the struggling childless cat ladies that I donated to, so that they can afford to trap, spay/neuter, and rehome our homeless dumped dogs, cats, and the wild animals dying due to habitat loss. The Reagan years were not kind to children, animals, the environment. My sorrow more than compensates for Laffer who was crazy in 1980s and hasnt learned a thing. He was the topic of a lot of late night comedy.
Indeed, late-night comedy, where uncomfortable truths are told and make people laugh. He was also mentioned in the comedy film Ferris Bueller's Day Off by the economics teacher who specifically referred to the Laffer Curve and suggestions it was "voodoo economics."
Great interview as always. The cutting of tax brakets for corporations from 70% to the 30% was astonishing... It's interesting to look back at the results...
He is selling financial advisor services using social media. Gaining trust from the public, and building a mailing list. aside from that, the bears know how to profit from fear mongering.
I find it odd that he doesn't understand how cutting government spending would have a short term negative effect on the economy. Counter to common perception, most government spending goes to government contractors who are some of the largest employers in the US. In the long run this is the right thing to do but could cause short term economic pain.
Brilliant discussion Excellent Analysis Art Thank you Sir He's optimistic , but am too. It eels like better times are coming under Trump I love your work, and I always love listening to you Adam Thank you gentlemen
I agree. Very disappointed that Adam never asked him about trickle down economics. Never said a word about how unions have been destroyed. Very very bad interview.
Hillsdale college offers a free online course on supply side economics taught by Dr Laffer were he explains the logic in detail. I highly suggest taking it. It’s only 8 half hour videos and 5 questions quiz
@@will-ht3mc Reaganomics destroyed lower income, you know, the guys who by all of your countries random garbage. He's implying that your country's social and financial weakness is the result of Reagan financial policy way back when. He was one of the heads that advised Reagan's policy, It's hard to argue he's wrong given how trickle-down economics has only benefited the rich by having value accrue in assets rather than people.
Nice job interviewing someone who likely goes against your grain of thought (and I lean your direction). It was respectful in both directions. I learned a lot, in part because of the open-minded approach.
Great interview! There are only tough decisions regarding the economy these days. I felt like Dr. Laugher could be right about the benefits for the economy but the stock market may none the less react negatively in response to Trump policies.
YO, Adam, next time that you interview Laffer, ask him to point you towards a study that provides definitive proof of supply-side's and trickle-down economics' efficacy (Expect Laffer to do a lotta verbal tap-dancing.).
I dont know what this Dr. knows but with the Trump election, I certainly have a feeling that happy days could be here again...Im in my mid 60s and have seen all the business cycles he has mentioned.
Exactly! David Stockman, the Reagan budget director, has been warning of economic problems under 47 and showed the stats of the problems under 45. Laffer is totally shilling for a job, and relevance.
So let's just say the house and the Senate don't play along and play nice I wish there would be some transparency where they can put out a list of all the naysayers about these tax cuts and then people will know really who to vote for and who not to vote for going forward.
Good to hear from someone that thrived during the tumultuous times of the 60, 70, and 80. History can repeat itself. Study the past to plan for the future. Please and Thank you for having Art Laffer on. Would like to see him again, say 6 month's into Trump's second term to see how things are going.
Great interview and glad Laffer is in such good spirits because of why he is in good spirits. (Adam, production notes: your camera/screen positioning makes you look like you are sitting in a hole. Readjust to eye height for best presentation. I'd also check the "Kelvin" rating on your lighting and skew more toward the yellow not blue spectrum as it washes people pale.).
Sorry Adam, but Art Laffer is just plain wrong. Just a few of the major problems he seems oblivious about: What about the mountains of debt (an entire mountain range worth!), the fact for critical resources (think water, oil, copper, etc) are being quickly either depleted or just getting increasingly more expensive to extract, our rapidly changing climate and the disasterous impacts from which are roiling the home insurance markets- not to mention what will be mass migrations from the sunbelt where the increasing intensity/length of the extreme heat in the next few years will make the south/southwest unliveable. Our fragile, yet essential energy grid is already straining under the weight of yrs of neglect, while data centers are popping up all over, each one using as much electricity as some small cities, while they try to keep up with AI and crypto mining demands. I don't care what this guy's background is and what he says - Laffer's clearly out to lunch not to recognize the seriousness of our perilous situation. And he's advising trump? No wonder people are worried about the next 4 yrs.
Adam, most interesting and provocative interview with some rather extreme views. Could you ask Lance to provide his rational evaluation of Dr L's views? Would be generally useful to all of us I think. Thanks
How can so called economic professionals and "experts" differ so much on the near term U. S. economic outlook? Why are so many Americans not feeling optimistic about the debt, credit, inflation, unemployment numbers like Professor Laffer?
TTM P/E ratios when Reagan took office were around 10, now they're around 30, among the highest in history. You don't have a stock market boom from 30 times earnings, that's the sign that you're in the boom
Imho, the only choice facing policymakers is to find a way to continue credit expansion. Or have it come crashing down on their watch. I do not expect USA to do all that badly 2025. Since it can shift the pain to Europe and other dependencies by the dollar reserve status and the eurodollar system. But scrambling for ways to go further into debt is not what I would call a strong economy.
GET THE FREE 18-POINT END-OF-YEAR WEALTH PLANING CHECKLIST at thoughtfulmoney.substack.com/
The USA is coming off the biggest financial collapse *EVER* in human history in 2022... *JUST ASK CHINA!* oddly enough there was no QE forever or any of that in fact the FOMC was the last to start lowering rates from the major Central Banks this Year very much an easing cycle now first in 4 Years so for the first time in Generation the American people are going to actually see revealed what a life without raging inflation destroying everything looks like...not some ahem *"esoterica"* to say the least *JUST ASK RUSSIA RIGHT NOW* ahem so yes wrong to look at this election of Trump 2.0 and see only Universal Bad is *THE UNDERSTATEMENT FOR ALL TIME* and yes as well very much part and parcel to a ruinious agenda in so being as well😊😊
- Unemployment spiking
- Government stealth liquidity ending now the election is over
- Worst risk premium since the 90s
- 22x forward P/E
- Defaults on cars, mortgages and credit cards spiking
- Yield curve uninversion a few months ago
- Extending and pretending can't go on forever and the lag effect is taking its toll
- the list goes on
Art is on something and I'd like to try some of it.
not to mention that that "Forward PE" is not a real # and is based on aggressive growth targets. I've noticed Wall St is always predicting 8-10% earnings growth for NEXT year then "next" year happens and it's always 4-6%. No one ever comes back to apologize for being wrong
He still owes Peter Schiff a penny 😂
This is not the 80’s, but he is in his 80’s and can’t tell the difference. No wonder trump keeps him around to cheerlead and drink koolaid
@@gringadoor5385
Truth
Corporate tax rates are already very low, unlike when Reagan came in
This guy is a good contrary indicator. Right before the 2008 crash he was saying that there is no housing bubble. Hes a clown. Laufer is laughable
Truer words were never spoken!
And a free market that gens up 29 trillion for the banisters...
Exactly 💯 correct
@@marybusch6182 hardly a free market these days with all these monoplays, cartels and duo-oplays
First time listening to him and I think your right.wtf is this guy talking about 😅
Nope not gonna happen. Stagflation or hyperinflation right into a depression... that is what comes next.
too bad nobody is interviewing you
Probably what you said 10 years ago 🤔
Those are not guaranteed. But what is guaranteed is worsening impacts from accelerating abrupt climate change. Think of that as a depression that keeps getting worse and worse and worse for thousands of years. And I'd take stagflation or hyperinflation any day over abrupt climate change. Good luck.
@@OldJackWolf 🙄
I hit $113k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject.
It's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Myself, I'm guided by Evelyn Vera. for years and highly recommend her I focus on him. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
It is very encouraging to see Evelyn Vera here, I started with 3k now with good returns.highly recommended..
Really you people know her? I was even thinking that I'm the only one she has helped with trading.
I am surprised that Evelyn Vera is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her client trading on CNBC news last week..
What impresses me most about Evelyn Vera is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
I love the grounded reality of this channel!!!
*If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you..prevent inflation.*
I feel sympathy and empathy for our country, low income earners are suffering to survive, and I appreciate Wayne. You've helped my family with your advice. imagine investing $30,000 and receiving $95,460 after 28 days of trading.
Honestly, our government has no idea how people are suffering these days. I feel sorry for disabled people who don't get the help they deserve. All thanks to Mr Michael Wayne, imagine investing $1000 and receiving $5700 in a few days..
I'm in a similar situation where should I look to increase income? Do you have any advice? What did you do? Thank you
I will recommend. Michael Wayne . Investing Services. to you. He is good at what he does.
Did someone just mention Mr Wayne!? Damn! You just made my day; what a coincidence.. I've worked with him for over 2years and I can tell how good he is
I really appreciate Adam making the extra effort to bring more bullish perspectives to his forum, but Laffer is over the top. Cheerleader for the incoming administration, plain & simple. Plenty of more measured optimists out there. This was the bull equivalent of bringing Harry Dent on the show. And honestly, you're show DOES do a great job of bringing both perspectives to the fore. Frustrating when Lance always paints you as a bear. Don't listen to him. Keep doing you
"This was the bull equivalent of bringing Harry Dent on the show" Very apt comp.
Lance isnt that wrong, the number of bearish views outnumber the bullish ones by far. And if you do the reality check on videos on the old channel, many where just plain wrong. Laffer is the other extreme, ridiculously bullish. "Greatest economy for thousand years".. yea right. I guess the boring, realistic opinions just don't sell that well.
@ You have any statistics to back that up? I don’t either so I guess our respective claims are based solely on our own subjective perspectives. That said I’ve watched Adam since square 1. I can confidently state that I have watched 99% of his videos, including the Wealthion days. The sentiment of the show reflects the sentiment in markets by and large. In ‘22 for instance, most (not all, I certainly remember Howell coming on back then) guests were bearish, as were most market participants. In 23’ I’d characterize most guests as being cautiously optimistic, which was a reflection of markets climbing the proverbial wall of worry. You starting to see what I mean here? 24’ has been dialed down cautiously optimism but optimism nonetheless. And Adam gets a bad rep because as a good host he challenges some of these more sanguine or outright exuberant forecasts, thus making him a ‘bear’ in a lot of peoples minds. Again the show reflects the sentiment currently present in markets. Who knows, maybe the bulls will look as ridiculous as the bears in the not too distant future. As for getting it right or wrong this is a macro/markets channel. Anyone honest in that business will admit they’re wrong all the time. Even Druckenmiller is wrong like 40% of the time. If you’re looking for someone with a crystal ball then good luck. Let me know if you find them
The stock market is not the economy. Those gains mostly only help those at the top.
💯
I don’t know what this guy is on, but I want some 😂
Best laugh of the day!
I'm 51yrs old. $40,000 weekly and *I'm retired, this video have inspired me greatly in many ways that I remember my past of how I struggled with many things in life to be where I am today!!!!* ❤️
Hello how do you make such?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down myself because of low finance but I still believe in God
Same here
waking up every 14th of each
month to 210,000 dollars it's a blessing to l and my family... I can now retire knowing that I have a steady income❤️Big gratitude to
Maria Frances Hanlon
I do know Ms. Maria Frances Hanlon, I also have even become successful....
Absolutely! I've heard stories of people who started with little to no knowledge but made it out victoriously thanks to Ms. Maria Frances Hanlon.
After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states
also paid for my son's surgery
(Oscar). Glory to God.shalom.
I envy this man, so full of energy at the age of 84😮, but he's on Trump team and by default he's heavily biased. The best economy and the best stock market ever ahead?? We've been going parabolic for couple of years and this is just a beginning? World is interconnected, US doesn't exist in a vacuum, US sucks all the world liquidity and the world will suffer a recession. I think Trump is stepping on a land mine here and the stock market bubble will bust during his term
exactly ! When US opened the door to the world 30 years ago, something changed eventually.
Isn’t “boom” the sound made by something that crashed?
I am a Trump supporter, but I am worried about unintended outcomes from the big boom🤷♀️
I watched this because I like to challenge my bias. But I have to say that there are so many logical inconsistencies in Laffer's approach that this is blue sky thinking at its most extreme.
I started my working career in the late 70's as a purchasing manager. I worked under the pressure of inflation high interest rates stagflation and protectionism. It was chaos and this guy became a joke.
You may be right.
Seeing corporate rates cut from 79% to 30% while the blue collar workers' taxes remained stagnant
Huh? Regan wasn't in office yet. Stagflation was caused by previous government administrations. Also, did you not understand that monetary policy acts with a lag?
I love Art Laffer! He’s pretty awesome and has great energy
Great video! I’ve been seeking investment guidance cos It seems like I am never able to identify trends properly. Options always go against me and I can't utilize the scanners efficiently. Is it possible to achieve a simple, reproducible passive income strategy that supplements my income and will eventually replace my wage income? Need some advise please
Best thing is to carry out extensive research and be on top of current events. Know how current events can alter share prices and apply logic over your emotions. This is what worked for me. Best of luck
In order to make profits from trading you need loads of experience and a well defined strategy, which most traders don't have. If you trade without the proper preparation, you're most likely to lose your money. Identify the buy/sell ratios and identify the market leaders and most importantly. Diversify! this will help you spread risk.
it's all about finding the right moment to take advantage of and generate colossal profit, which is why you need to do your research
"Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.".
Could you let me know how I can get assistance from your advisor? I need help with allocating my portfolio right now.
Dr. Laffer....Yes,Yes,Yes Bring him back after the new administration has six months of action!!!!
Art is a great Man,, Love his economics. Brilliant
Art lafer is the best ❤❤❤❤
Hilarious watching Adam try to control this guy’s euphoria.
Adam is excellent
Absolutely exciting to hear him. Definitely like to to see him many many times. Thanks
I wish he would have elaborated why he thinks Operation Warp Speed was “unbelievably cool.”
Fewer and fewer working folks can remember the Reagan boom. Good to see Art telling them how it worked.
The national debt immediately becomes a less scary problem when perception changes so that debt holders suddenly have renewed faith in the growth potential of the USA. Turning around the trade deficit is a great way to quickly show evidence that can lead to such changes in debt-holder's perspective.
I hope the DOGE folks don't just try to make things more efficient but rather, use their analysis of waste, fraud ,and abuse as persuasive evidence that these institutions must be eliminated, Constitutionally, once and for all time. They must convince voters so that the future isn't just another round of left-right tug-of-war.
All human actions are based on the perception of value from the available choices. That perception can certainly be dead wrong in hindsight, but hindsight cannot change past choices no matter how undesirable the actual consequences turned out to be. Perceptions can change instantaneously. I isn't necessarily a long drawn out process except maybe similar to going broke, slowly at first, then all at once. A LOT of perceptions can change ALL AT ONCE when things look especially bad, or after having been so bleak for the past 16 years, suddenly a ray of hope shines above the horizon. Tomorrow, perceptions can change...or the next day... this is a huge unknown. I'm really interested to see how 2025 goes.
We had 1 trillion in debt in 1980. We will shortly have 37 trillion. How the hell can the government handle that level of debt service without massive tax hikes or massive cuts?
This was my thought also, and was surprised Adam let this slide so easily.
Easy, the same way Japan and China has: slow steady inflation.
sell assets....Fed Govt assets said to be 500 trillion. Make Anwar (Alaska oil field said to have more Oil & Gas than Saudi Arabia) productive and use the cash flow to pay down debt while forcing a balanced budget
@@solskengroupllp2758yah. I think so too.
Bro bought that suit before the Reagan era, but I like the retro look.
Trade Tariffs and higher income through tax breaks are inflationary. Rates will be forced lower pushing assets up - also inflationary.
Just saw the intro. We're 16 years into a bull market with valuations at record highs. We're probably already in recession. For stocks to continue, everything has to work out perfectly.
"For stocks to continue, everything has to work out perfectly."
No - they just have to keep printing money. Which they will.
I have a lot of respect for Art Laffer, but I think he's way off the mark on this one. Comparing 2025 to 1981 is wild. The country couldn't be more different. Let's look at a few things here:
1981 federal debt to GDP 32%, 2025 it'll be over 120%; federal deficit spend 1981 was 79 billion. 2025 it'll be about 2.4 trillion (that's about 30 times higher);
Social Security outlays versus income in 1981, approximated 122.5 billion outlay and 122.6 billion tax (Social Security was net positive for the government). Social Security outlays versus income in 2025, 1.62 trillion vs 1.43 trillion income (net loss for government of 190 billion).
Lastly Medicare and Medicaid income versus outlays in 1981, 73 billion out and 45.3 billion in for net loss to government of (28 billion); Medicare and Medicaid for 2022 (couldn't easily find 2025) 1.750 trillion with revenue of 387 billion (now federal tax revenue isn't everything for Medicare and Medicaid since Medicare has premiums and Medicaid is half paid by the states but it's still easily net loss for the government of at least 1 trillion per year).
Basically there is no wiggle room for the government here. If they want to reduce the deficit taxes have to go up or entitlements need to be cut. Both things Trump said they would not do.
If they want to lower taxes without reducing spending, the only outcome I see is stagflation.
If they want to shift tax burdens around like Laffer said, that means the poor get hammered since right now the majority of the tax burden is carried by the top quintile.
If they want the federal reserve to reduce their balance sheet of treasuries then yields have to increase making the federal debt more expensive. As pointed out by Lacy Hunt the US savings rate is negative so there's no real money to absorb these treasuries without yield going up.
The debt wall is coming and I feel like it's the same thing as when in Game of Thrones they all said "winter is coming."
Whether you agree with his assessment of America’s financial chances over the next 4 years or not (I’ll be surprised but remain hopeful) Art’s enthusiasm is infectious. He’s incredible for nearly 85!!! I hope I’m that chipper at 60 let alone in my 80’s!!!
This time of person is why I hate going to work in Manhattan. When you meet people who are rich and living off the high of the wealth effect, they talk like this guy. Truly don't grasp how crappy the economy is for 80% of people. You can't "deregulate" us out of it. You need to be giving massive pay raises, onshoring jobs, and creating actual jobs - not uber and fast food jobs - and raise rates a little and pop the speculative bubbles and bring down housing. Yeah ....no policy is gonna do that.
Yes you can deregulate out of it. Regulation makes the cost of everything go up, makes jobs disappear overseas, where there is less regulation. China doesn't care if it pollutes; we have to get the last one-millionth particle out or you cannot do it. You probably didn't notice how many jobs disappeared when minimum wage went up to an unaffordable level, so instead of a starting job, there were no jobs. Your comment is exactly the reverse of reality.
If you like Walmart P/E 48, you're gonna love Walmart at P/E 60.
Love Art's enthusiasm ! But i do understand why.
Thanks TMYou never disappoint in securing very interesting and quite diverse interviews.
Wow! What an opening statement. Sounds like someone has completely forgotten about the debt.
Debt doesn't matter. Has it ever? It's the govt spending that introduces more currency into the hands of select groups that is the problem.
@@tatersquad2000 you own bitcoin don't you.
@@tatersquad2000 Tell that to whoever owes you money.
I hope that I have his level of energy and enthusiasm and his mental sharpness when I’m his age.
The paranoia over the "debt" needs to end. The debt doesn't matter, has never mattered, and never will matter. What DOES matter is govt spending which continues to inject capital and liquidity into the hands of select groups, leading to inflationary pressures and reducing the wealth of the working class.
The injected capital/liquidity comes from the debt....duh
You need to study history. Debt ALWAYS matters.
Of course it matters. ❤
"It's like pulling teeth to get these people to understand how money works."
Joseph Wang, aka "Fed guy", doesn't usually talk about the competence and work ethic of colleagues and bosses from when he worked at the Fed, but made a recent exception. Just one point was about a new boss who said she didn't understand the department's work (I think it was the trading desk), but said she was keen to learn. Wang said something like, you can't coach IQ. He seems like a reasonable guy who wouldn't make such criticism if it wasn't deserved.
The original Adam. The Father of the debt spiral we find ourselves in today. It shows the state of the nation that someone so incompetent is still being sought for counsel. It's all logical. And perhaps incompetence isn't the word. The system is designed to accelerate the transfer of wealth to those at the top and if you love that paradigm Adam err Arthur is your hero. Let's build a monument on the National Mall.
To think we have Reagan era returning should frighten anyone who is not a millionaire. Personally, I will do well. I feel bad for the animal charities that will face lower revenues (rich people do not donate as much), and the struggling childless cat ladies that I donated to, so that they can afford to trap, spay/neuter, and rehome our homeless dumped dogs, cats, and the wild animals dying due to habitat loss. The Reagan years were not kind to children, animals, the environment. My sorrow more than compensates for Laffer who was crazy in 1980s and hasnt learned a thing. He was the topic of a lot of late night comedy.
Indeed, late-night comedy, where uncomfortable truths are told and make people laugh. He was also mentioned in the comedy film Ferris Bueller's Day Off by the economics teacher who specifically referred to the Laffer Curve and suggestions it was "voodoo economics."
Great interview as always.
The cutting of tax brakets for corporations from 70% to the 30% was astonishing...
It's interesting to look back at the results...
Adam has been bearish forever.
He's been wrong for the same amount of time.
He is selling financial advisor services using social media. Gaining trust from the public, and building a mailing list. aside from that, the bears know how to profit from fear mongering.
Laffer is the most entertaining and upbeat economist in history.
God bless art laffer !!!!
I find it odd that he doesn't understand how cutting government spending would have a short term negative effect on the economy. Counter to common perception, most government spending goes to government contractors who are some of the largest employers in the US. In the long run this is the right thing to do but could cause short term economic pain.
This is great to hear someone so positive!
The "boom" will be the debt exploding.
Participation not Taxation…. That’s the tonic.
Brilliant discussion
Excellent Analysis Art
Thank you Sir
He's optimistic , but am too. It eels like better times are coming under Trump
I love your work, and I always love listening to you Adam
Thank you gentlemen
Difficult to know why you interviewed Laffer. He is the guy who gave us trickle down economics - which is why we have a colossal national debt.
I agree. Very disappointed that Adam never asked him about trickle down economics. Never said a word about how unions have been destroyed. Very very bad interview.
Bottom line! You don’t work you don’t eat! The gravy train is over!
Hillsdale college offers a free online course on supply side economics taught by Dr Laffer were he explains the logic in detail. I highly suggest taking it. It’s only 8 half hour videos and 5 questions quiz
This guy single-handedly has almost destroyed the US economy
How?
Example? Just one?
@@will-ht3mc Reaganomics destroyed lower income, you know, the guys who by all of your countries random garbage. He's implying that your country's social and financial weakness is the result of Reagan financial policy way back when. He was one of the heads that advised Reagan's policy, It's hard to argue he's wrong given how trickle-down economics has only benefited the rich by having value accrue in assets rather than people.
@@dennisthemenace2341I think he’s referring to reaganomics which tripled the national debt
When, where, how? Oh, you must be one of those types that likes to complain about Reagan.
We are now entering Bizarro universe - where what you thought was wrong is right and right is wrong.
Nice job interviewing someone who likely goes against your grain of thought (and I lean your direction). It was respectful in both directions. I learned a lot, in part because of the open-minded approach.
I would like to see him debate professor hanke who is very pessimistic 😅 as usual
Wow, if we could all have a grandparent like this.
So many people here are predicting him to be wrong makes me very bullish.
Great work,solutions to problems start with seeing and asking the questions
Great interview! There are only tough decisions regarding the economy these days. I felt like Dr. Laugher could be right about the benefits for the economy but the stock market may none the less react negatively in response to Trump policies.
YO, Adam, next time that you interview Laffer, ask him to point you towards a study that provides definitive proof of supply-side's and trickle-down economics' efficacy (Expect Laffer to do a lotta verbal tap-dancing.).
Great interview and a nice German ending from doctor Laffer😅
I agree with a lot of what he says is needed. I have trouble seeing it happening without some real pain.
I dont know what this Dr. knows but with the Trump election, I certainly have a feeling that happy days could be here again...Im in my mid 60s and have seen all the business cycles he has mentioned.
No, not Mr. Reganomics!
Exactly! David Stockman, the Reagan budget director, has been warning of economic problems under 47 and showed the stats of the problems under 45. Laffer is totally shilling for a job, and relevance.
Trickle down that never works just makes the rich richer.... here we go !!!
Here comes 10 trillion new debt! 8+ trillion the first Trump admin. Boom!
So let's just say the house and the Senate don't play along and play nice I wish there would be some transparency where they can put out a list of all the naysayers about these tax cuts and then people will know really who to vote for and who not to vote for going forward.
Will be curious about how he maintained his youthful look?
Wow, that’s some strong cool aid. Probably good to remain a sceptic until proven otherwise.
Great Interview. I have hope
Good to hear from someone that thrived during the tumultuous times of the 60, 70, and 80. History can repeat itself. Study the past to plan for the future. Please and Thank you for having Art Laffer on. Would like to see him again, say 6 month's into Trump's second term to see how things are going.
True optimism is worth a second look!
Fascinating! Thanks
More inequality for the working class and it is supported by "thoughtful money for the rich"
Wow
Great interview and glad Laffer is in such good spirits because of why he is in good spirits.
(Adam, production notes: your camera/screen positioning makes you look like you are sitting in a hole. Readjust to eye height for best presentation. I'd also check the "Kelvin" rating on your lighting and skew more toward the yellow not blue spectrum as it washes people pale.).
Sorry Adam, but Art Laffer is just plain wrong. Just a few of the major problems he seems oblivious about:
What about the mountains of debt (an entire mountain range worth!), the fact for critical resources (think water, oil, copper, etc) are being quickly either depleted or just getting increasingly more expensive to extract, our rapidly changing climate and the disasterous impacts from which are roiling the home insurance markets- not to mention what will be mass migrations from the sunbelt where the increasing intensity/length of the extreme heat in the next few years will make the south/southwest unliveable. Our fragile, yet essential energy grid is already straining under the weight of yrs of neglect, while data centers are popping up all over, each one using as much electricity as some small cities, while they try to keep up with AI and crypto mining demands. I don't care what this guy's background is and what he says - Laffer's clearly out to lunch not to recognize the seriousness of our perilous situation. And he's advising trump? No wonder people are worried about the next 4 yrs.
Adam, most interesting and provocative interview with some rather extreme views. Could you ask Lance to provide his rational evaluation of Dr L's views? Would be generally useful to all of us I think. Thanks
Art always cracks me up.
Yeah, California limit on mortgage interest deduction and limit on property tax deduction of $10k is not helping.
I always appreciate when Laffer is on. Thank you both.
thanks
Contagious optimism!❤
Wow, what a great episode.
My gosh, Adam. The absolutely perfect guest. Well done. . .
You're a saint Adam. All I'm gonna say, everyone welcome to their own interpretation of that.
Great interview , thanks
@11:30 Eliminate the income tax? Can you imagine where the stock market would go if that comes to pass?
It would be insane. And money from all over the world would come on board, companies would be flush with liquidity
Thank you Adam
If you can do me a favor and talk to Art about promoting no tax on overtime that would be amazing
America will experience a ZENITH again!⚡️
Art is smart
Adam... You are getting some serious plugs on kitco right now, that includes Rick rule, what's up with that?
Thank you
If you have a really bad headache and then you sprain your ankle, you can put ice on the ankle without anyone assuming you like the headache.
Thanks for having someone who is not a doom and gloomer!
IKR..
Ok, I liked the quote in German :)
How can so called economic professionals and "experts" differ so much on the near term U. S. economic outlook? Why are so many Americans not feeling optimistic about the debt, credit, inflation, unemployment numbers like Professor Laffer?
Love Art’s positivity and optimism especially no war!!
I love his energy, but I’m cautiously optimistic!
TTM P/E ratios when Reagan took office were around 10, now they're around 30, among the highest in history. You don't have a stock market boom from 30 times earnings, that's the sign that you're in the boom
Which is why they need it to crash between now and Inauguration. 🤔
@FreeSpeech4All They seem to be trying everything to make it happen
Imho, the only choice facing policymakers is to find a way to continue credit expansion. Or have it come crashing down on their watch.
I do not expect USA to do all that badly 2025. Since it can shift the pain to Europe and other dependencies by the dollar reserve status and the eurodollar system.
But scrambling for ways to go further into debt is not what I would call a strong economy.