My take as to why uranium is different from other commodities that show a supply gap: 1: Most supply gaps aren't that large, so they aren't that difficult to close. Uranium's gap is massive. In 2023, supply was estimated at 75% of demand, expected to reduce that gap over the next few years (but not so much with Kaz production misses), then the gap opening massively at the end of the decade. 2: Some commodities are susceptible to substitution (coal/nat gas, battery metals). No substitution for uranium. 3: Most commodities are susceptible to economic cycles/demand destruction (a supply gap results in increased prices which results in reduced quantity demanded). Uranium is not susceptible to this, except maybe at absurdly high prices ($1,000+). 4: In other commodities, producers respond quickly to price signals. In uranium, the price response to supply/demand imbalance lags for years until it's too late, due to the multi-year fuel cycle, long-term contracting, and unknown inventory levels, and producers don't respond until the price responds. 5: Uranium only has a few big players with most of the world's production. If they can't ramp, no one else is close to large enough to matter. The few big players aren't really incentivized to increase production to the extent it would kill the bull market either, whether they can or can't.
Incredibly well stated ! . This will run for a decade or three. Don’t expect the needed supplies to come from mines. It’s just not possible in the time line. Sea water extraction??
Awesome guest. When are you fellas gonna get Kevin Ball from Whitehaven? mining cfo of the year hands down.. but picking up pennies to pay BHP for the qld mines.
Wish there was more coverage of Deep Yellow and Bannerman but thankful for the coverage there was. Interesting details about the water situation. Financing in Africa is going to be another interesting topic.
Hey lads, been following Justin for the last 3 years; stoked to see him on your awesome podcast. Bit like two Worlds collide. Big thanks from over here in NZ
Great show, nice to see Justin on the show, he's a dictionary of knowledge on all things uranium. Given the price action today in the market I wonder if it's going to start to become more risky shorting some of these companies like DYL given how hard uranium companies run when they get going.
Agree. Get Lobo on to explain his Pre-production Sweet Spot within the Lassonde Curve (MoM logo), And then I will debunk his study as per my own for ASX stocks
I think there was some misunderstanding on the SPUT dynamics. The trust only buys pounds. It does not sell. NAV is equal to pounds x spot price. So if everyone who held SPUT suddenly sold and drove the share price to zero for some reason, the discount to NAV would be 100%, but there would be no selling of pounds into the spot market. Conversely, if the shares trade at a 1% or greater premium to NAV, the trust will issue units to raise money to buy more pounds.
Correct. SPUT has an "at the market" facility to sell additional units in the trust to raise capital to buy physical uranium for the close-ended trust. Trading units in SPUT does not change the physical holding of uranium within the trust
MoM Matty bingo: Oh phone while guest is talking CHECK, no shoes CHECK, vape hit mid show CHECK, yell a random Australian sounding word (Huuuuuuuuhn) CHECK
Question, where did all the USA uranium come from? Once being the biggest producer, where did it come from, how much was getting produced annually and how much does it cost today to extract. Obviously time constraints would be another question. Hahaha I already know the answer to this one but who owns them now? I'm late to this discussion, hopefully fashionably
@@adriansaw8329 Yes, there's been the two bottlenecks already now this low. I've been in lithium since 2012, so when I read commentary from speculators, it's quite the 😂 Uranium is the ugly dance partner among markets. It's only a matter of time but there's prettier opportunities available short term.
Fellas when are we going to see an on location show from Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal on a stinkin’ hot summers day with coal dust flying around everywhere??
DYL,PDN,BOE, have grown to dominate my super fund now 77%. Future looks bright in U Hardest decision will be deciding when to start selling, buying when out of favour is easy
They are building 150 reactors. Why would they dump their pounds when they can't replace them? The economic value (impact) of the energy the reactors will generate is orders of magnitude more valuable than uranium even at $1,000/lb.
My take as to why uranium is different from other commodities that show a supply gap:
1: Most supply gaps aren't that large, so they aren't that difficult to close. Uranium's gap is massive. In 2023, supply was estimated at 75% of demand, expected to reduce that gap over the next few years (but not so much with Kaz production misses), then the gap opening massively at the end of the decade.
2: Some commodities are susceptible to substitution (coal/nat gas, battery metals). No substitution for uranium.
3: Most commodities are susceptible to economic cycles/demand destruction (a supply gap results in increased prices which results in reduced quantity demanded). Uranium is not susceptible to this, except maybe at absurdly high prices ($1,000+).
4: In other commodities, producers respond quickly to price signals. In uranium, the price response to supply/demand imbalance lags for years until it's too late, due to the multi-year fuel cycle, long-term contracting, and unknown inventory levels, and producers don't respond until the price responds.
5: Uranium only has a few big players with most of the world's production. If they can't ramp, no one else is close to large enough to matter. The few big players aren't really incentivized to increase production to the extent it would kill the bull market either, whether they can or can't.
Incredibly well stated ! . This will run for a decade or three. Don’t expect the needed supplies to come from mines. It’s just not possible in the time line. Sea water extraction??
Well said. You on Twitter?
@greatdecoupling@@epdoobie
Justin interviewed on this channel! Media phase is about to begin🤣love today’s market action as well.
Awesome guest. When are you fellas gonna get Kevin Ball from Whitehaven? mining cfo of the year hands down.. but picking up pennies to pay BHP for the qld mines.
Wish there was more coverage of Deep Yellow and Bannerman but thankful for the coverage there was. Interesting details about the water situation. Financing in Africa is going to be another interesting topic.
Yes, Bos has had its big run, and for sure BMN and DYL are next
Hey lads, been following Justin for the last 3 years; stoked to see him on your awesome podcast. Bit like two Worlds collide. Big thanks from over here in NZ
Awesome get boys .Justin is one of the best. Know his stuff .
the fellas got Justin on the show.. almost flipped when i saw it come up.thanks.
First time watching you lads, bravo! Good laugh but a high level interview/qna... legends
Great episode. Thanks guys, gonna be interesting seeing Uranium boom and bust cycle in the coming years.
ASX Uranium Stocks moved up strongly today! Cheers
Great show, nice to see Justin on the show, he's a dictionary of knowledge on all things uranium. Given the price action today in the market I wonder if it's going to start to become more risky shorting some of these companies like DYL given how hard uranium companies run when they get going.
Thanks for the content guys. Don't know how you find time....
Well done with Justin. Awesome!
Luv your daily show, well done for getting Justin. Next we will have Rick Rule and Lobo Tiggre
Agree. Get Lobo on to explain his Pre-production Sweet Spot within the Lassonde Curve (MoM logo), And then I will debunk his study as per my own for ASX stocks
Awesome interview, so insightful, thanks much!
I think there was some misunderstanding on the SPUT dynamics. The trust only buys pounds. It does not sell. NAV is equal to pounds x spot price. So if everyone who held SPUT suddenly sold and drove the share price to zero for some reason, the discount to NAV would be 100%, but there would be no selling of pounds into the spot market. Conversely, if the shares trade at a 1% or greater premium to NAV, the trust will issue units to raise money to buy more pounds.
We are all the wiser thanks mate
.. just buy Silex mate and be done with it.. 10 bagger on the way.
sold silex recently, ill pass@@MrSmileyPeople
Correct. SPUT has an "at the market" facility to sell additional units in the trust to raise capital to buy physical uranium for the close-ended trust.
Trading units in SPUT does not change the physical holding of uranium within the trust
Holy shit Justin on MOM! Awesome!
I like the "ballsdeep" commentary :-)
Waw what a tour de force Justin thanks
Effen Beaut! The Hoon!
Guys asked good questions. Thanks
Which companies around the world are the main suppliers of sulphuric acid?
KZ is building a new sulphuric acid plant (800kt capacity) + increasing imports from RU and UZ
MoM Matty bingo: Oh phone while guest is talking CHECK, no shoes CHECK, vape hit mid show CHECK, yell a random Australian sounding word (Huuuuuuuuhn) CHECK
I was investigating Uranium output at Olympic Dam.....constantly on the job
"It cannot not go up" i love it lol. thanks for asking that question on uranium downside catalysts...
"Balls deep in Uranium" epic line!!
I'm balls deep in Elevate Uranium, ASX EL8 👍
Cracker of a show boys. Let’s get more Uranium guests on 👍
Question, where did all the USA uranium come from? Once being the biggest producer, where did it come from, how much was getting produced annually and how much does it cost today to extract. Obviously time constraints would be another question. Hahaha I already know the answer to this one but who owns them now? I'm late to this discussion, hopefully fashionably
In the 40s it was the Belgian Congo. Eventually Many states. NM. UT. cO. VA. Wy. Va. Ax. Mt. ….
Justin Huhn whacko! If you can speak to Andy from finding value that would be even more impressive.
Any news on the merger between Lynas and MP Materials?
Long term contacting about $72 now. Shovels in Namibia will get going $90-$100 LT contracts.
It's been a crazy long trade guys...7 years in the making.
Interesting 7 years...in that other sector, there's already been 2 n half cycles. #Uranium was enviable, with the signing on new 7 year terms.
@@peterlattimore6013 in lithium? Yes i remember the 2017 boom then bust then 2022/23 boom and now bust...is that what you meant?
@@adriansaw8329 Yes, there's been the two bottlenecks already now this low. I've been in lithium since 2012, so when I read commentary from speculators, it's quite the 😂
Uranium is the ugly dance partner among markets. It's only a matter of time but there's prettier opportunities available short term.
the parallels with GBTC are interesting. Unless it can be redeemed the uranium trust will trade at a deficit
One of the Oz guys just confused SPUT with an ETF.
Fellas when are we going to see an on location show from Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal on a stinkin’ hot summers day with coal dust flying around everywhere??
Would like to see BHP ramp up Uranium, to replace the coal revenue.
Didnt kno deep yellow was one of most shorted stocks on ASX, interesting. Shorts must be having a rough time out there
Within last two weeks I see every other channels talks Uranium-time to get out
🤪
HUUUUhn
Wow I’ve calling it Kazza Tom Prom all this time 🤔
Hahahahaha that's exactly how I pronounced it first time aswell on the show (Matty)
DYL shorts! Haha
Wonder how they are sleeping 😂
DYL,PDN,BOE, have grown to dominate my super fund now 77%.
Future looks bright in U
Hardest decision will be deciding when to start selling,
buying when out of favour is easy
First lol
This is going to end bad 😅 china is going to dump it
They are building 150 reactors. Why would they dump their pounds when they can't replace them? The economic value (impact) of the energy the reactors will generate is orders of magnitude more valuable than uranium even at $1,000/lb.
@@arrogantprickly oh no 😂
This Rocket just refuelled for a massive February. Get your tickets now .All Aboard 😊
that would be good for jap and yank utilities who would gladly take it off their hands.. china also hoarding copper nickel and zinc.
Chinese have long term vision.They will not dump. I believe they would dump their gold first and we are likely to see pigs flying before that happens.
Buy gold.