Hugh Hendry: 2016 macro outlook | | SKAGEN New Year Conference
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- Hugh Hendry, hedgefund manager and founder of Eclectica.
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It's great to see Hugh Hendry is back (in the media). I always enjoy listening to his opinions and many of his angles are original and run counter to mainstream thinking. Always refreshing.
Beautiful... Hugh has always been honest and deep-thinking. Respect
WOW! that was the most epic Q&A session ever...1 question with an incredible answer! most valuable part of an overall great presentation. thank you so much for posting this.
As a sidenote - I recommend you put "Hugh Hendry" in the Title. I almost missed this great video because I didn't realize it was all about him!
Certainly a charismatic chap and he does make some good points.
However, ultimately his annualised return has been 5.6% over the last 12.4 years. Considering the time-value of money this is not particularly good. Might as well have bought a Government Bond 12.4 years ago.
Hello?? Can I tell you about the real world?
Amazing 🎉
All these years, and we see Hugh is getting humble a little bit eh? To have been right once and wrong so many times is discouraging I am sure. All this time I have watched Hugh speak, and he is so well spoken and entertaining, but all this crap that he talks about and all the while I have been holding AAPL stock. Thank goodness I have not "diversified" like Cramer says, and thanks goodness I have not taken any action relating to Hugh's recommendations. China? Hugh, you took a tourist trip to China a few years back and you thought the sky was falling. Have fun Hugh, show me something real please.
Answer to question number one should be a often quoted knowledge train? The Federal reserve is going to need a Burgess Meridith if it believes it can lose its balance sheet and increase its omnipresence? Henry ford gave a 500 dollar rebate to any buyer of the model A? He gave a huge rebate and had Battelle design the assembly line?
"QE took away the risk of a depression" nah it just moved the date and increased the size of the next depression. As long as there is human greed there will always be a depression.
+@BitRod It didn't stop the depression. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump would not be serious presidential candidates if everything was fine. They represent a very angry voting population. The top 0.01% are doing great, but everyone else is seeing flat wages, rising food prices, rising medical costs, fewer work hours, fewer work benefits.
Big fan of him!
Did he say "Thank you, Huge" at the end?
Not sure how "deflation" became a pejorative and something to be avoided it's what you should expect in an advancing economy.
Paul Volcker raising the interet rates was what eventually BROUGHT DOWN the price of gold, not the other way around. The price of gold had been skyrocketing before he raised the rates, but raising the rates doesn't automatically switch everything around like using the light switch - rather it's like herding thousands of cows, and changing direction takes time. Raising the interest rates made it more profitable for peopel to stay in cash and keep the $ in the bank than to own gold. In today's negative to zero interest rate climate where the debt levels around the world are skyrocketing, there is NO WAY the government can raise the interest rates to the point where it would be more attractive to hold cash than own gold.
8% Uncorrelated. Ok well done, but if a fund is hedged what does it matter if some alpha is correlated...
He Was bearish in 2009 and bullish from 2013.. he doesnt fit to be a billion dollar fund manager
No comments from 2022 or post-Covid…? This just came up in my feed.
Mad genius
after watching hugh for years, i can say hugh's hey day's are over not to come back.
hugh is talking about the miracle of globalization and technology as the drivers of our current 'interest rate' regime. and he ends his speech talking about henry ford rewarding his workers.
the irony of hugh's lack of self awareness on this point is that he's not making more money on his investors.
high has tremendous incite. but he's no salesmen. he admits as much. and that is why his investors left him.
hugh is a handsomer and more socially competent michael burry. a leader of men he is not. a presenter and entertainer, not really. a manager of money, sure.
he doesn't understand that bragging about good at being wrong is not going to get him more investors. if you're on stage pitching academic researchers this is one thing, but the man should be selling himself and instead he's selling his ideas and shorting his-self.
+Zeev Kirsh Yes, I have watched him over the years too and it is sad to see. He obvioulsy got 2008 right but didn't pick the extent to which the Central Banks would backstop the financial system to prevent it freezing up. Mind you neither did some other (less) notable characters , like John Corzine who burned MF Globals' customers supposedly safe cash accounts , by using it to bet against European sovereign debt - and ofcourse didn't beat the ECB. Everything is easy in hindsight.
www.zerohedge.com/article/excel-breakdown-all-discount-window-users-between-march-2008-2009
why cant his ideas be himself?
Wow! tough crowd, we're they even alive? Is that what Norway is like? huh "hug"?
its ironic hugh talking about starbucks being over saturated and how mainland china would be soon as well and lol and behold now in 2023 starbucks has gone all in on growing in mainland china for its growth
🤣 wish you would come across this video hugh
29.35 did he say "Thankyoug ah Hewg"?
very nice
I think he is very bright but still, would you give your money to a guy that says "the financial works is crazy?" paradox and that other word... I'd want a guy that said "you see? I told you I knew it was going to happen and it did! the world is so predictable and yet nobody listens to me"...
You clearly miss the point
i think hendry reemerges in 2019.
attorney general of the southern district of New York pulls the punchbowl ages before the Federal Reserve smells the water in the single malt?
33:05 effective policies make equities worth more
@@deesus1085 wow thank you for the insight very profound
Just say it Hugh..."A LACK of sound money & free markets...a banking cartel funding inherently inefficient & wasteful Governments (that favors bond markets especially & gets massive fees from it--for funding Govt)....massive malinvestments..." Love him but he overcomplicates everything....And he is a fan of quantitative easing...wtf. that statement didn't age well, did it.
stuck up crowd!
Dom cummings of finance….
I don't understand his graph. What the hell is "vol adjusted" stocks vs bonds? He thinks stocks UNDERperformed relative to bonds? They're up 1000x in a few decades. Anyone who bought stocks in 1980 is rich as fuck right now.
Fuck bonds. Stocks going up 10x is what inflation looks like. That's the inflation people are trying to protect against.
+Shawn Smith its return adjusted for risk, not that complicated
+Kalen Foster
Volatility and risk are not the same thing. Volatility means the price goes up and down. Risk is when the value goes up and down.
+Shawn Smith I'll let you argue that with academics, but pretty much the entirety of financial theory is based on vol=risk
And that's why most investors are terrible at investing. They buy things based on price movement rather than buying something for the sake of ownership. People who know what they are doing buy stocks based on dividends.
Cool story bro. Although u have a contradiction in ur own sentence. Buy something for its divs or buy something for the sake of ownership?
What a lot of BS.
I have never heard so much BS in my life. Keep it simple... stick to quality stocks & real estate. It has worked for centuries.