Ukraine: They can Win this Round, Unless...
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- Опубликовано: 11 июл 2024
- Despite the modest results of the Ukrainian counter offensive, there is still the possibility of acheiving a result of strategic relevance. Let's see what it is.
By the way, the thumbnail is a Soviet prototype of the '60s. It clocked 350 Km/h but it burnt too much fuel to be practical, so it was abandoned.
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Despite the modest results of the Ukrainian counter offensive, there is still the possibility of acheiving a result of strategic relevance. Let's see what it is.
Join this channel to support it:
ruclips.net/channel/UCVDkfkGRzo0qcZ8AkB4TMuwjoin
Support me on Patreon www.patreon.com/Millennium7
One off donation with PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/Millennium7star
Join the Discord server discord.gg/nCHxkzyH9T
Buy an Aircraft Model at Air Models! airmodels.net/?aff=173
----------------------------
Ask me anything!
Take part to the community Q&A clicking the link below!
forms.office.com/r/LNPQtf3Tc0
--------------------
Visit the subreddit!
www.reddit.com/r/Millennium7Lounge/
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All images and additional video segments contained in the Thumbnails and/or B-roll segments are used in strict compliance with the appropriate permissions and licenses required from the source and in accordance with the RUclips Partner Program, Community guidelines & RUclips terms of service.
Modest? On what planet? They are kicking the shit out of the Russians. This trench warfare not seen since WW1. It is arduous time consuming bloody work to clean them out. But they are doing it slowly but steadily. Give them time.
Completely disagree.
"modest results" - 76k dead for 4 villages and after 2 nights of fighting they lose one of them
Gus? Given the information that's incredibly accessible at this point, supporting Ukraine requires at a minimum caveats; disclaimers for things like Svoboda, which aren't just "far right" (which is truly used so tenuously as to be appropriately meaningless) but absolute fascists. A party which had overt nazis but is now "reformed." Such that finding group photos of people who emblazon their bodies with unambiguous nazi iconography. Technically, one could (fairly) argue that to even nazis claims is actually ad hominem. So in sticking to the merits, I'll just attack their beliefs and actions.
First, every second longer results in the death of more Ukrainians ABDUCTED into the service of an unwinnable 'war.' A war that's been justified under such absurd claims as:
- We're defending Ukraine's border (which lasted at best a few months).
- Ukraine is the first in Putin's attempts to remake the Soviet Union.
- We fight Russia over there so we don't have to fight them here (the US!)
- We fight Russia so CHINA knows we're serious.
- For the sake of "liberating" people who felt liberated upon Russian troop's arrival!
- We're defending Ukraine's "Liberal Democracy."
Huge portions of Ukrainians were disenfranchised (Zelenskyy).
Ukraine is violating the UN charter on minority rights since ~2015.
Ukraine failed to implement Minsk despite promising that they would.
There have been ~500,000 Ukrainian casualties (KIA: 450k amputees: 50k)
Contrary to MSM, the Donbas elections were far more democratic & honest.
US + other Western nations partnered with fascists to conduct a coup in 2014
The regime aspires to liberate the CIVILIANS Kyiv is bombing & shelling since 2014.
We're told the regime that kills journalists with death squads and locks up those it can't (eg: Gonzalo Lira, whom I don't personally like) and even puts US senators et al on a KILL LIST. THESE are the good guys. Despite Ukraine's public kill list, Myrotvorets, which updates those who meet violent deaths as "liquidated" (a kill list which prominently features hundreds of children under the age of 14 down to 9 years old), which has overtly murdered Russians such as Ms Dugina, the Russian FSB has conducted no analogous operations to kill Ukrainians. Clearly they could, yet, Russia has not.
Russia was blamed for blowing up their own pipeline, for shelling their OWN POW facility, and were even claimed to be shelling the nuclear facility that they are in, which, even the US media has reported Ukrainian attempts to degrade the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear facility ... only to then claim they don't know whether it was Ukraine or Russia shelling the facility that ... Russians have controlled since April of 2022.
There are videos of Ukrainians admitting to shooting Russian POWs in the femoral artery to allow them to slowly bleed to death. Of CASTRATING Russian POWs. These weren't spoofed; they were broadcast by the Ukrainians under the misguided belief that the world would be fond of these anti-Geneva acts. Yet, Russians have still treated Ukrainian POWs far better. But we're to believe that after Russia left Bucha, that Russian sympathizers were found executed by ... Russians, despite still wearing the armbands signifying their Russian-support.
And others like Sy Hersh has also written about this confabulation as well as others the US / West lies about for propagandistic purposes. It was after all, not 10 years ago when the NYT still occasionally showed both sides of at least some stories. But after the Branch Covidians, such bilateral journalism that fanes a modicum of objectivism is absolutely absent. People who read that drivel know that they've abandoned such principles and are engaged in explicit agitprop; yet they read it as if it's news anyway.
At what point does it become not only untenable, but embarrassing to support these thugs? Not only thugs, but thugs you're supposed to believe constitute the "Liberal Democracy" that Russia isn't. Despite sanctioning the murder of journalists and overtly targeting civilians that are miles from any military target, during an ammo shortage. Targeting non-combatants not only who reside in Russia, but even in the UNITED STATES (Rand Paul, Max Blumenthal, Aaron Matte, Scott Ritter, etc etc) and it goes without saying in Ukraine. Whom to this day, idolizes a guy nazis deemed "too extreme" even for them (Bandera), to whom there are not only statues of in Ukraine ... but in NEW YORK.
I watch your channel because I admire the intelligence that goes into defense hardware. Of course I think it's righteous for a nation to defend itself. But obviously nazi Germany wasn't engaged in self-defense when the Russians and the US were marching on Berlin, were they !?
Perhaps you'd care to argue some of the point I mentioned above. Maybe you are either unaware or have proof that some of the claims I made are either not the opinion of unbiased experts, or perhaps you can falsify some of my claims or beliefs. I'd like that. I'd love to find out that what the US / West is engaged in is an obviously-moral exercise. And if you're successful in persuading me, I'd be happy to either donate to you (first preference) or to the charity of your choosing. We'd just need to establish the topics and criteria.
I'd also be quite willing to bet Ukraine WILL lose.
The only question is how much Ukraine and the rest of us will lose in that process.
Deindustrialization of Germany..?
Impoverishment of the US..?
Dedollarization of the world economy..?
And the worst case scenario the US promiscuously flirts with: Nuclear.
I take for granted people as smart as you cannot trust the corporate media that brought us:
• Horse dewormer
• 15 days to slow the spread
• Natural immunity doesn't work
• Trust the science (anti scientific: science operates off skepticism, _not trust!_ )
• Peacefully & patriotically incited a riot
• Lockdown protest = super-spreader
• Mostly peaceful = immunity booster.
• 51 intelligence officers said so.
• 2016 election: Russia Russia Russia
• Laptop = Russia Russia Russia
• Trump's a Pooty-Poot-agent
• It's Pooty-Poot's Price-Hike
• Very fine people.
• WMDs
• _Killing incubator-babies_
• Polar caps melted by 2013
• Safest and securestest election
• Racism made Kyle shoot his white attackers
• Inflating Currency = _REDUCES inflation_
• US invades Syria / Iraq ~8,000 miles away = self defense
• Russia [invited] to help neighbor in 8 year old civil war: "unprovoked invasion"
• Admit origin of virus = Racism
• _Chinese eat bats & endangered pangolins:_ Totally not racist
• Now, Ukraine needs _a 3rd army_ !! (bc ... they're winning)
_Russia so crazy, they blow up their own:_
• pipeline (Nord Stream)
• POW facility.
• nuclear facility. Zaporizhzhia
Now, I've barely scratched the surface of lies and misdeeds. But I can provide video evidence ... and US own internally funded (by the US Gov) validating many of my claims. Contradicting the "official narratives."
CERTAINLY you don't believe Ukraine is a liberal democracy, do you??
@@trumanhwwow that was a crazy rant. Perhaps take it to channel where folks actually fall for this crazy talk😂😂😂😂
This seems obvious to anyone who has opened a map that has both the road and the railroad on it. But then again, most people don't look at maps. Which means this is a necessary video.
First time I've heard of it. I'm kinda casual war observer, but still typically watch one thing a day on it for sure.
I have to say, if you, an intelligent internet commentator/content creator, can see the vulnerability of the rail line logistics, i'll bet you my life savings, firstborn child, and my dog, every day of the week, and twice on sundays, that the Russian General Staff sees it also and has planned accordingly.
That is not to say it can't be done, but the fact that it hasn't been attempted would indicate to me that it's an overwhelmingly heavy lift for a fighting force as depleted as the AFU.
Well said
And again, The Ukraine's problem is depleted air defenses. In order to take out permanently a certain infrastructure, you have to place guns, permanently. Which are just a target, once close enough for aerial bombardment. (No Artillery gun can outrange an airplane). Which, could be reduced (made risky), BY a working air defense.... But yeah, i am starting to repeat old issues. NATO cannot deliver properly layered Air defense.
@@Gunni1972 i would say there are several artillery systems that can outrange an airplane, and could easily deal with a rail junction and then some... they just operate on a strategic, rather than tactical, level.
not the dog. there are limits. If you lose your life savings and your firstborn, you're going to need the dog.
I guess you missed the news that the RU is building a new railway line ( Burne-Malovodne aroun 60km and they are half way done) which makes their supply much more robust and bypasses Donetsk itself. So the Ukrainians would have to take quite a large area and bring in artillery which would itself be under the crosshairs of Russian artillerymen.
Good analysis. So far the Ukrainian offensive reminds me of Kursk during ww2. Delayed attack waiting for wunderwaffe, strong prepared in depth defences on known attack vectors etc.
Drawing arrows on maps and then hoping that soldiers get where they are supposed to is not good... On the map it always looks like a short journey but in reality these few kilometers can be a real hell . Every concentration of troops is immediately discovered by drones and destroyed by Arty and co. Ukraine can't mass enough troops there to capture that part of the front, I think. The combination of good intelligence, long-range weapons and extensive fortifications makes this war a slaughterhouse I think.
That's why the guy said "The pen is strong (when drawing big arrows on the map) and the pen is weak (when you break it out of frustration) it depends."
That's interesting stuff to think about, but in the end, reality is the final arbiter. What is the actual loss rate for both sides at the front, and can Ukraine get past the defensive lines and minefields anywhere, and get behind the russians. I've heard stories that they have. Now going behind enemy lines is risky business, but it can cause nightmares for the russians too. We'll see.
@@fjalics Ukraine has breached a number of defensive lines around Robotyne and Verbove. It is not yet clear how strong are the positions to which the Russians have retreated.
@@hb1338they didn't breach anything. Those "lines" are not defensive lines, they are security zones (or crumple zones, or forward position) these are spread out everywhere and are not meant to be held at all cost. It's function is to provide early warning of an attack as well as slow down any potential offensive so the people in the main line could prepare the defensive action such as launching drones/airplanes/artillery prep.
3 months and they haven't gone past the first line of defense yet.
@@far_centristactually they did break defense lines of Russia
At first I thought that the area you pointed to was too urbanized to attack (basically would create another Bakhmut meat grinder) but after checking the map, it is not and actually would be as vulnerable as the Zaporizhia. However, the issue is that Russia can simply use truck and (as you mentioned) ferry logistics temporarily and then connect the fairly closely located railway appendages south of Donetsk restoring the railway communication. This would make the operation essentially a dead end as proximity to Donetsk would make further advance too difficult.
@gbabayan
I assume as well that Russia would be well aware of the intentions behind advancing in that direction and they'd probably commit considerably more to defend the area than they did in robotine for instance considering how much more strategically important it is.
@@hollowgonzalo4329 Unless those forces were already attrited in Robotyne, they have been pulling VDV from the Kremina line to help reinforce their forces.
I dont believe that train line is actually being used currently (it was cut in the 2014 2015 wars) and if i remember right another one closer to the sea was being built, but i could bed wrong.
otherwise its a good little thing to point out that not much others have, however Crimea can be supplied with ferrys alone (it was before the bridge was built)
That was my impression as well.
Supplying Crimea using ferries was painfully and dangerously slow - that is one of the reasons why the bridge was built.
Russia also has major airlift capabilities that seem to be continuously forgotten.
@@fozzy0266Well, there is a reason the capabilities Russia reports on paper are often forgotten... where are they?
After losing a few transport aircraft in the opening stage of the war, they seem to have learned a lesson.
Yeah, I don't think this railway is relied upon and Millennium seems to have forgotten about remotely laid mines. Plus, he's correct to say that air-defences have improved but Ukraine's ability to penetrate them has also drastically improved in recent months (as demonstrated by strikes in Russia and Crimea).
Depends on your definition of goal/win. Reminds an old joke...
Q: how many -MACINTOSH- -programmers- Ukranians does it take to change a light bulb ???
A: NONE !!! THEY just declare DARKNESS the new STANDARD !!!
A bit like how Russians claim they never wanted Kyiv after their failed offensive there.
a former general of Polish Army Mr Skrzypczak (very experienced guy) said already last summer "either you break this land bridge now or you can forget about this direction (it would be fortified soon). His idea about advancing this year was also more to the east (Doneck). In his opinion, no experienced military professional would choose south for offensive strikes, so he believes this is politicians making military decisions.
You miss an important point about rail lines. True, they are thin. But they also have parallel tracks and a long line of grey rocks that stand out. Visual systems that can target a camouflaged tank can easily spot that line. Hit it anywhere along that long line at the rail line is down. The weakness of rail is that every point is vital. You can drive on the shoulders to bypass damage like a road.
What about all of the drone that RU employ? Sure you can strike rail lines with artillery and MLRS systems but by doing so, you remove them from striking potentially more valuable targets/providing troop with fire support and prolonging their exposure to counter fire, monitored by drones and other loiters. IMO, UKR are simply just too handy capped on the materials front to waste precious equipment's like the RU side are doing.
Its a question of cost l imagine. Would Ukraine be able to keep up the damage? Afaik, repairs would be cheaper than the weapons they use to damage the rail lines. Moreover, the russians still have the other Crimea route active so you essentially waste resources without and actual gain.
@@alispeed5095, Re: "...repairs would be cheaper than the weapons they use to damage the rail lines."
Exactly that. Ukraine is already using HIMARS just to take out Russian artillery. I don't see how they could sustain a long range attack on railways for very long, if at all.
Well, what a mess!
Drone recon, when a train it in range shell it.
Damage the train and its cars , you stop the flow and cost Russia money in material and a train.
Forget the track hit the train in the track.
@@alispeed5095 You might argue that any restriction imposed on supply routes is worthwhile. None of us knows whether the effect is large enough to give the task sufficient priority that it gets done.
One of my two top channels on Ukraine/Russia with History Legends. Very interesting take, clever presentation, lovely voice.
He can barely speak english
@@cactuslietuva "Cars can barely move"
@cactuslietuva indeed ... but so far his logical approaching and analysis he provides is correct and interesting 🤔
@@rstefan1821 he makes predictions that are just that
@@rstefan1821 To me he speaks a very solid English. Maybe it's because I am French and his accent is easy on my ears but within the context of "international english" youtube I would rate him high.
Beside native English speakers who don't speak any language complaining on the quality of his English deserve fat slaps in the face with a massive trout. There are thousands of hours of skills he learned so that you can benefit for the extra thousands of hours on his expertise you don't get by native English speakers YT and you're picky? Spoiled brat.
Thank you for pointing out the difficulty of cutting rail/road communications without physically capturing a section.
because that makes it impractical. but the theory is laid out well. and thats why we are here! :) THANKS FOR THE GREAT CONTENT!
thanks for this heart. from you, this means means a lot to me!
I'm sure this railroad crosses a river at some point, all that's needed is to blow up the bridge. A railroad bridge is not easy to repair.
@@adrien5834 if only they were able to hit them...which doesnt seem to happen...
@@simonschneider5913 That seems unlikely. I'm pretty sure it's just a question of time.
The Ukrainian offensive met my expectation that it would have the same outcome as Operation Clausewitz did.
the parallels are mind-boggling...its like what they shoved my grandfather into.....
Doesnt make any sense at all, this is a proxy war instigated by the U.S, like wtf are you guys on??? are you paid to push such stupidity?
And what are the similarities? Well, besides the losses of the attacking side?
@@dimushka383 1. The invading army in both instances is the Red Army;
2. The delusion of the defending (counterattacking) side on their prospects of success;
3. The tendancy of the defending (counterattacking) army to rely overly on wunderwaffen, singlular weapons systems that purportedly would change the outcome of the war;
4. The defending side's proclivities for national socialism: and
5. The invading army's stated goal to remove elements of national socialism ideology.
@@user295295
Are you sure you're not confusing Operation "Clausewitz" with something else?
Aren't you even confused by the name of this offensive operation in honor of a German military leader?
Your videos are always enjoyable. Thanks for your work
NATO / Ukro-Nazi counteroffensive id doomed. He did not show any disaster.
You say severing the land bridge and Kerch bridge would Isolate Crimea.
But the Russians have controlled Crimea since 2014 and the Kerch bridge was only built in 2018. The land bridge has only existed since 2022.
That means for 4 years (between 2014 and 2018) Crimea was cut off and isolated, how did the Russians cope?
Surely, even if the Ukrainians succeed the Russians would just go back to supplying Crimea however they did between 2014 and 2018?
There were no military operations ongoing. However, yes, the ferrys are there as I explain in the video.
The ferries were very slow and awkward, which is why Russia built the bridge. Having only the ferries available would make it extremely difficult to supply Crimea quickly enough.
Military operations are a much larger logistical headache than keeping the locals supplied. Crimea wasn’t doing great after 2014, economy shrunk, goods harder to get. If it was perfect there was no need for the 2 bridges.
Bridge was built primarily for civilian and economical purposes. Military do not rely on it too heavily, because it may be damaged any time with some good effort, they use land and their own landing crafts.
I greatly appreciate your... delicate... but fairly even hand in discussing the current state of this conflict as opposed to the frequently heard 'LOL Russia is fighting with shovels' approach.
this propaganda-BS will get you nothing more than what my ancestors got in the last round. yet, there we are. again. like nobody even remembers what they tought me as a child, in the 90ies.....absolutely horrific to witness...
"delicate... but fairly even hand"
well put, its really precious to have guys like him to learn from.
this can only work if there is no military on the other side that will destroy your artillery when you bring it close to the front
In one of your previous videos you also brought up the "Transparent Battlefield" point. Very well thought out analysis.
Russia's large ground and helicopter based EW units and brigades, spoofing GPS etc etc
Your videos come together really well.
The extent of Russia's EW capability is of interest. We (the general public) know that it is effective against some weapons (e.g drones), but we don't know how many installations Russia has available. We do know that any installations destroyed by Ukraine would take a very long time to replace.
@@hb1338 >"We do know that any installations destroyed by Ukraine would take a very long time to replace"
How do you "know" that?
@@hb1338 we also know Ukraine captured some of the most modern examples.
@@hb1338 the Russian ground EW assets that i was referring to are the mechanized mobile ground units. that was brought up Millennium7* .
that and small drones and heli etc
@@georgethompson1460and Russia has captured Ukrainian equipment from the West.🤷🏻♂️
You haven't fully informed yourself. The Russians since late 2022, have been building a new railway line near the coast, from Mariupol to Melitopol. It's finished already a few months ago. They were working on it alongside building the defensive lines. Thus, Ukraine offensive must be able to reach Melitopol to cut off Russian land routes.
AFAIK the railroad in DNR and Zaporozhie is not used for military logistics. The section from Donetsk to Volnovakha is not operational at all, and the only working direction from Volnovakha is south to Mariupol. Military cargoes arrive at Rostov-on-Don and from there are transported on trucks via the reconstructed coastal highway on the land bridge. Since Russia has its own mass production of trucks, will never run out of fuel, and the land bridge offers plenty of routes, this mode of work is perfectly sustainable bar actual Ukrainian breakthrough to the coast (which obviously isn't happening).
The Crimean Bridge also isn't used for military logistics, hasn't been for maybe a year now. I don't know about the Azov Sea ports, they're in use but to what extent is a question. The port in Mariupol is mainly used for mass import of construction materials for the ongoing reconstruction of the city, and for export of grain. It's still being reconstructed and expanded though.
Thank you for your sharing 😊
Can you do a video on how WW3 will pan out for everyone so we can put a stop to this before it really gets out of hand and sorry but who is this battle plan for? I do prefer it when you talked about aircraft...
It's only POSSIBLE in Ukraine's Dream or a big IF or if Russian soldiers just watch and does nothing.
it is a bit weird to see the whole community of people discussing the problem of beating your ass, and complaining that it turns out to be not so easy lol
Nice Analisys, Thanks for Video.
Thank you for your intelligent analysis.
But isn’t it a simplification to assume that the Ukrainians would advance at similar speed once they have broken through the multiple defence lines? It seems to me that once these are penetrated and “bridgeheads” are established, armour could pour into the less defended rear areas and advance at much higher speeds?
The problem is Ukraine is using the reserve armor right now that would be needed for a push. And the logistics train to support a rapid advance is being attrited every day the breakthrough is delayed.🤷🏻♂️
@@dougconnor40This conflict is over for Ukraine. It just hasn't been realized yet.
@@dougconnor40Reserve armor isn't the only thing Ukraine is using. They've used up their infantry, in great part, and have recently ordered all able bodied men to report to conscription offices, according to a report from Emil Cosman, and it seems like it is probably accurate because I follow a Ukrainian family who left Odessa and are living in Estonia and the wife has recently posted videos of Ukraine conscription officers snatching Ukrainian males up in a subway station, and a wife of a Ukrianian who said her husband was snatched off of the bus while she was throwing quite the fit in the recruitment office in the aftermath. They're running out of men and equipment. This is over. It's just not realized yet.
@@dougconnor40ruclips.net/video/lrIEcGrmahA/видео.htmlsi=FstsQ9F86PzojGxN
Okay, second video I've seen of you and now subscribing. You have given me my new favorite quote "facts are stubborn" and a great laugh with the "alleged Sea of Azov".
There is a lot of discussion about Storm Shadow and Taurus. I would appreciate a review of the weapon systems. Why do the Ukrainians still want the Taurus, even if they have the Storm Shadow? Thank you for your efforts.
It's physically a bit larger and given the turbofan vs turbojet probably gets a bit further range which would reduce the risk to pilots launching them to near 0 or hit deeper targets.
They want to strike moscow
@@maksimluzin1121 considering the whole point of storm shadows design is that It can't be communicated with even by the launching party so can't really be jammed electronically and follows a preprogrammed flight path that takes into account scouted/probed air defense and for the most part stays out of range or the majority of AA/SAM that isn't manpad/shorad or just moved systems by default. The only way to "jam" it is to visually obscure the target from its infrared camera it uses to compare to an image of the target stored onboard. So nahhhh
Also if they were taking out 8/10 missiles Ukraine would have run out ages ago before even getting the number of successful hits they have. Britain only had 700-1000 total and certainly didn't give anywhere near all of them.
To have more ammo, basically. Storm Shadow has proved extremely effective and having a strategic impact, but like any PGM is finite. The more the merrier.
@@maksimluzin1121that's obviously nonsense.
It should be important to note the "short blanket" effect: concentrating war effort in an area will shorten the concentration of the other. Don't forget Russia is "only" in defensive but it can change anytime considering its strategy and open opportunities.
Simply watching the front lines doesn't tell the full story of what's happening, it doesn't let you predict what will happen in the future. An important aspect of the war is force degradation and reconstitution, and that is very hard to estimate from an outside perspective. If Russian forces are sufficiently attrited then Ukrainian gains could speed up, and if Ukrainian forces become exhausted the offensive will completely stall. We don't know which.
Yes we do know. The Ukrainians suffered huge losses. And these were highly trained soldiers.
The lost three armies. The first was done summer '22. The second was done after Bakhmut. The third (65.000 men!) in this "counteroffensive".
There is no more. The west do not have high military production capabilities.
Ukraine only can speed up own losses.
The Russian forces are certainly not attritted as the Ukrainian offensive is only happening at three small points in the whole 1K km front line, and Russia has not engaged its 150K reserve with hundreds of tanks in military bases used for training away from Ukraine, as even the WSJ admits in its reporting.
However, the Ukrainian side is in stall the whole time even when its forces were fully prepared and fresh in the beginning of June after months of delay of its “spring”counteroffensive. But it does not mean that the Ukrainian forces are fully attritted: they still have about half of its equipment and will get more equipment in the coming months.
This WWI-era stalemate can last for years with no resolution unless Russia would decide to drastically increase its efforts, which are, for now, just a background thing for the country with none of its regular financial or industrial or social programs changed in any way to divert a truly major effort on the war. In fact, the country is only expanding its pricey non-military investments, so I doubt that it will be able to make a major progress in Ukraine.
Yes we do, stop kidding yourself.
@@reptilespantoso the West does increase its military production. But it is not catching up the Russian manufacturing, let alone combined with countries like Iran and North Korea, both of which have huge military manufacturing.
Another great video thanks
Barrister mode (already knowing): "How was Crimea supplied from 2014-2018 i.e. before the land bridge and the Kerch bridge?"
At great expense, besides Russia has been sinking ferries to provide an anti drone wall to protect the bridge.
They aren't sinking ferries. MSM has melted people's critical thinking. They are using barges which were partially sunk/lowered.@@georgethompson1460
good video, honestly makes you wonder why they attacked there exactly
They want to get Tokmak and Melitopol while cutting the land bridge to Crimea, it will yield the most sucesses (both strategic and political) per kilometer gained. That is if they end up cutting through the defensive lines and reaching Tokmak which is a pretty optimistic view of things
@@doom8680 yeah, the problem is that reality has enemy action.
Excellent analysis
27:48 i love when people say this because they dont know how hard it is to get a photo of something thats miles away in the sky. Use flight radar and just stand in your backyard and see if you can get a high res photo. If you can, how many time did you try and imagine if you didnt have all the warnings and knowledge you had of where and when to take the photo
you brought up the counter argumentation yourself. rails are VERY easily and quickly repaired.
unless it is bridges, the repair takes mere hours. you could have pinpointed the real vulnerable points (bridges, track switches) in your video as addon information.
these would bring the lines to a longer halt, but also one has to assume that these vulnerable points are most protected by air defense...
But if it's within regular artillery range then it can be hit while you try and repair.
Thank you. As a former part-time military engineer and someone who lives and works in a post glacial landscape, I am well aware of line of communication issues but the majority of people have little conception of what you have talked about here.
rail is fixed rather quickly, i a matter of hours. if you need it...or is that not true?
@@simonschneider5913 Depends upon the level of damage and environmental conditions at the time; plus availability of trained personnel and materials. Damage to rails and sleepers is one matter. Damage to bridges, tunnels, culverts, etcetera could be exacerbated by heavy rain. Temporary closure at a critical time appears to have been the most common objective in historical military attacks on railway infrastructure.
@@michaelguerin56 Thanks for that clarification. You know more than i do.
I think theres a reason rail is highly valued, on both sides....rail is efficient, when you care to keep it up.
More efficient than any other means of transport.
@@michaelguerin56 i dont have any links
..but the russians seem to be very quick at fixing those damages.
@@simonschneider5913 Point to point, where terrain is not too steep and population density is sufficient. The reason why New York, London and other large cities had significant numbers of horses and horse shit on their streets in the late nineteenth century-and early twentieth century- is that the number of horses went it several fold, in order to transport goods and people to/from the railways. No solution is ideal.
Can anyone tell me what the small object is (at 1.40) that flies over the fighter jet?
The vulnerability isnt discussed because its not a vulnerability. It would be a minor inconvenience for the Russian to lose that railway. But all of their forces are already staged. They dont need to move much, just food and ammo. Which is significantly less than having to move the 300,000 troops and all their vehicles and gear into the region to begin with. Actually taking the railway would just force Russia to commit more resources and troops to the region to be able to withdraw the troops that are already there. Which Russia has plenty of.
Food, ammo, replacement vehicles, spare parts, reinforcements, fuel... etc.
It's almost like rail is the main way Russia supplies its' troops, we've already seen them commandeer civilian vehicles to shore up their underwhelming truck fleet. Heck some Russian units in zaporizia have been using donkies to help them supply their troops.
@@georgethompson1460 The US stole civilian vehicles in the wars in the middle east and used donkeys and horses in AFG. That isn't proof we didn't have trucks and I know we did. Rail is the main form of transport and would remain the main form of transport for 99% of Russian forces. They wont make it that rail line but hypothetically if they did it has almost no effect. Russia will simply use other means which are free because like I said 99% of the rest of Russia is using rail. That leaves a lot of trucks ready to use.
we may not always agree on this war but i really do enjoy these videos.
keep at it mr.
ruclips.net/video/vnJZ29OtpZY/видео.html
Railway Troops perform the tasks of rail services (preparation, construction, reconstruction and protection of the objects of railways). It is the oldest such force in the world, established in 1851, as a unit in the engineering corps of the Imperial Russian Army.
from wiki.
Nice video
The amount that i care can be poured into an astonishingly small container without spilling a drop.
The Russians have dedicated units to repair the railways in no time.
They did a good job on the Kerch bridge, didn't they ? It has been operating at less than half capacity for nearly a year.
@@hb1338 For military supplies, the main line of the bridge is railway, and it has been operating 100% without interruption all this time. The capacity of the road branches was reduced by half within two months after the first attack and just under three months after the second one, for a total of less than five months. At the same time, keep in mind that the bridge’s capacity is set with a significant margin and traffic jams on the bridge only formed during the holiday period, when the bridge is filled with tourists in their cars. Taking into account the fact that in both cases the damaged bridge spans were completely replaced, and not cosmetic repairs, these are very good results. Anyway only private carriers and tourists suffered from bridge damage.
@@hb1338 imagine if they were operating at full capacity.
Depends on what is hit. On land, sure, repaired in a day. But take out a few bridges (not just dislodging a section but actually fold it in half) and there are real problems.
@@MarioSeoane The amount of Bozos thinking that cutting off Crimea from the mainland is even remotely possible, are really doing a number on my hope for humanity. The entirety of the Azov Sea is Russia's backyard and they can use whatever the ducking duck that floats or flies to send just as many supplies as they already do, with virtually complete impunity.
They've still got LSTs and LCPs of the Black Sea Fleet that can keep hauling @ss 24/7 to and from Crimea, besides the sizable fleet of civilian ferries mentioned in the video. And then you've got a huge number of military transport aircraft not in use, a small percentage of which could further enhance their ability to supply Crimea. Not to mention that they could transfer commercial vessels into the Black Sea to reinforce the supply chain. It's not like Turkey would would go full Gandalf over a freaking cargo ship or ferry passing through the Bosporus.
No matter what Ukraine attacks and how many times it does, they won't be able to achieve anything before expending all their invaluable long range PGWs on the supply chain and losing their ability to hit any other strategic targets, that in reality, would benefit their cause more than trying to cut off Crimea would.
The key issue here is that Ukrainian logistics themselves behind the current LOC have been under severe strain, constantly hit by the Russian long-range weapons including FOBs, drones, guided rockets and artillery. I wonder what percentage of equipment and ammunition actually makes it unscathed to the front...
Thanks for your thoughts. Russia is tough opponent but Ukraine is also tough. This offensive is not over and Ukraine has no where to go so it has to fight. Russia can leave at anytime
Ukraine is not tough, Ukraine is getting all the necessary support from the west (NATO). Without it, the war would end in a week time.
Ukraine ain't tough lol they nearly surrendered back in late April last year. They are dying in hundreds of thousands and if there is someone that doesn't want to fight, that's Ukrainians
Ukraine is a 404, the first army war annihilated, they relied on NATO mercs for a long time, sooner or later it will take a tall on how many casualties NATO can have on the battlefield.
It is just so satysfying to see some american karen having absolutely zero idea about what is really on the ground)
@@Max_Da_G Hilarious. They've completely taken the initiative from Russia and have been steadily advancing for a year now. If Ukrainians aren't tough then the Russians must be soft, that's the only explanation.
Thanks for the Info. What do you make out of the reports by some analysts that Ukraine is fighting a war of attrition?
It is sort of true, but because they have no alternative, not by choice
Very Good
I love this chanel. But I will question the premis that the Crimea can easily be cut off when it has by your own admission 3 lines of comunication.Train ,road and ship.
Spot on !!
How you are defining 'offensive' and 'counter offensive'?
Praying for negotiations. It’s starting to look like WWI attrition but without the possibility of an outside army to break the stalemate.
Conserve life, swallow the pride, make peace, and rebuild. Hopefully even become better neighbors who listen to each other’s security concerns.
Negotiations today just puts the war off until tomorrow.
Russia has no security concerns, just excuses.
I heard that Russia is constructing a coastal railway from Taganrog to Melitopol (I think). That would solve the (possible) railway bombardment issue you describe.
And indeed, the existing coastal road and ship transports can do a lot too.
It is true
"The first offensive in history with a trailer". Ha! Ah...I'd viewed the salient as a liability. I am better informed now. Thanks.
Is there any ballistic missle that can fit the f o a b
These kind of railway strikes are why I like 203 mm 2S7
Imagine rocket artillery mines for the tracks lmao
@Millemium7HistoryTech what happened to your video you published 9/28 about the F-35? I was going to share it, but suddenly it disappeared!
I still can see it...it looks normal to me
I doubt that Russian production even comes close to their munitions and equipment burn rate. I have not heard anyone seriously suggest that it does. With new aircraft capable of launching guided munitions and Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs both coming to Ukraine over the winter it should be possible to close the land bridge.
Ok, now tell us what happened AFTER you woke up?
Bravissimo!
They don't need to get to the coast. They need to take Tokmak and reinforce their flanks on the way there. Once they have Tokmak, they've got the railroad. They're not that far from Tokmak as it is.
If they can get to the coast, great, but they don't need that.
They can wait in Tokmak for the F-16's!
Almost four months to go 8k through Robotyne and reach the first of two Surovikin lines. How long do you suppose it will take to go 16k through both lines and then take the fortified city?
@@PraktikoolSinik Strykers have been seen beyond the first line south of Verbove.
@@georgethompson1460, If they're going to Tokmak, they're going the wrong way. Tell 'em to make a right.
On the other hand, if you haven't seen my other discussion about the lines here and are being serious... It's too soon to discuss the claims that started coming out just last night. (23 Sep, 24 today) Either way, the question stands.
Edit: I can find no claim that Ukraine has made it south of Verbove. There is just a huge media push of vaguely worded articles to rehash gains made last week. They have currently made it across the tank ditch and line of dragon teeth (what people like to call the first line of three) and remain at the first of the two "Surovikin" lines north and north-west of Verbove.
The Ukrainians don't need to take Tokmak to block the railroad. They just need to get close enough to monitor it with drones. Trains are big, slow, and extremely predictable. Once Excalibur or HIMARS stops the train by damaging the tracks, it's a sitting duck for anything they care to throw at it. Or maybe the train can't stop and derails and then gets pounded. Russia may be able to repair the tracks quickly but they lose the entire train. A boxcar full of 152 cooking off would be impressive.
Even hitting a moving train isn't that hard. I see moving armor getting hit by artillery and drones all the time.
With Ukraine getting ATACMS, I could see Berdyansk and Melitopol being dicey as far as shipping goes.
There are a few bridges across the Molochna River that would pose short-term logistical issues for the Russians if destroyed. Pontoon bridges don't instantly pop up and can't carry as much as a steel bridge can but I'm not sure if it would be cost-effective to throw SCALP at them. But if Ukraine could get within HIMARS range, they might be worth taking out. There's also the possibility of getting within SCALP range of Kerch.
It appears air defense in western Crimea is really depleted and what remains of the Russian fleet is going to have to move to the eastern Black Sea. That will relieve a lot of pressure.
Автор, к сожалению это уже не первое ваше видео, где вы опираетесь не на факты, а на цепочку желаемых предположений, что печально и подрывает суть видео
1) 8 лет Крым не имел сухопутного сообщения с Россией и тем не менее его спокойно снабжали...
2) Автор, наверное увлекшись самолетами. ЗАБЫЛ ЧТО ЕСТЬ ЕЩЕ СНАБЖЕНИЕ ПО ВОДЕ. хорошо, что под конец видео вспомнил
3) Даже если отбросить водное(очень смешно) то остается сообщение по дорогам. Это не будет так же эффективно как по железной дороге, но это возможно. Скоростные трасы работают спокойно. Вспоминаем как Украина до последнего даже по огнем снабжала Бахмут
4)Автор почему-то не учитывает места, где находятся склады в областях. По его мнению, чтобы поддерживать группировку у Херсона, припасы постоянно возят аж от Ростова? Ну не смешите
5)При уничтожении Крымского моста или повреждении жд (что Украина давно бы уже сделала) поставки кораблями к Керчи или Севастополю, Мариуполю, Бердянску (а они уже используются) заменят выпадающие мощности
6) Что мешает ударить в ответ и уничтожить мосты через Днепр? Они в разы более важные артерии для Украины. Россия всегда может зайти с севера, через Белоруссию
7)Как уничтожение портов в Одессе сказалось на Украину? Это ли не стратегический проеб? Потеря не только мощностей по продаже своей пшеницы, чтобы хоть как-то пополнять бюджет, так еще и потеря портов, для получения снабжения со стороны НАТО
It is exactly what I said in the video. Did you watch it till the end? It is just 10 minutes. BTW the bridges on the Dniepr are still intact because most of them are actually roads on top of a dam, a much more resilient target han a bridge, which is already a difficult target to begin with.
Я досмотрел до конца, вы покрыли вопрос частично обсудив мореходства в Азовском Море, а еще есть черное и там главные базы снабжения это Севастополь и Новороссийск @@Millennium7HistoryTech
@@Millennium7HistoryTech there is a 200M span of road that is not connected to the dam at Zaporizhzhia & no dam at Dnipro by attacking these it would make logistics harder for Ukraine in the south . There is no reason that I can think off for Russia not to have attacked these already
No, you didn't say everything he said in your video. You completely ignore the fact that supplies are also coming from Crimea through Herson, you pretend that Russia doesn’t have tonnes of supplies stached away in the area, you treat the issue as if Russia can’t supply using roads, you mention the road buy the sea in the beginning, and that it is secondary in importance but pretend as if it cannot be used if the rail road is cut, also, as the commenter said, Bahmut is a good example of stiff resistance despite having a horrible supply situation(even though it was a catastrophic defeat for Ukraine, it should be mentioned in the video), absurdly claiming that the Kerch bridge is under „constant“ attack, even though it was attacked a total of 2 times during 1.5 years and both of the attacks managed only to destroy only one of the lanes without damaging the railway, and both of them had almost no effect, and there are many more issues wich can be mentioned.
The funny thing is that you craft an obviously bogus narrative during most of the video, but then use the last third of it to debunk everything you said previously, wich just makes this video pointless and bizarre. Also you disperse snippets of footage of random Ukrainian aircraft (Ukraine barely uses its air force, and is hopelessly outmatched buy Russia wich uses it extensively to bomb Ukrainian forward positions and rear bases) in the video wich gives it a general propagandistic aura. Other than a few decent moments of analysis, this is not a good video.
There's plenty of channels that get "do a video like this or else" type threats from YT. It happened at the start of the war to even big creators, they had to make slava ukraini shilling or get demonitized and taken off the recommendations. Would not surprise if they gave this guy the squeeze as well.
2:29 wow he said it so quietly he need to add subtitles
Hold on Wait a 60 or 100 seconds
very elegant form to say Failure of Ucraien Counteroffensive, without saying failure or Fracaso, or Defeat. but at the end, this is a defeat of Ucraine.
Russian is building new railway lines as we speak and im surprised you havent mentioned it
True...I will make a follow up
Probaly the best way for a stand Off "destruction" the railway is to use a shit ton of Cluster and Mine weapons which are stand of launched. But as you said that would be expensive and not a solution for ever
The primary problem there is that they would first have to get close enough to use artillery. They can't and long range weapons are much, much, more resource intensive.
The assumption of cutting off Russia's infrastructure is a little funny.
Just think about which side will actually be able to play this game more effectively. a country that has a couple of dozen long-range systems, or a country that has hundreds of such systems, as well as missile carriers at sea and in the air?
Besides, let's take into account the quality of the rear service. The Crimean Bridge has already been broken three times. The bridge is located quite close to the front. And still, every time it was restored and it works. While Ukraine has not been able to repair the bridge in the outflow for more than 1.5 years, the bridge that connects it with Romania.
So who is easier to damage the infrastructure and who will take longer to restore it?
The author is clearly on the side of Ukraine, although he tries to be impartial.
But still, his bias is clearly revealed by exaggerating some facts and completely ignoring others. This is how such successful forecasts are created.
Russian missile carriers in sevastapol are leaving crimea due to 'measly Ukrainian missiles'
@@georgethompson1460😂😂😂
Tnx for proofing that italians are smartn't :)
wonder if theyll use FOAB to squash that salient?
As per Russian spirit. Even when their enemy is literally supported by 30 Nations, they pulled through by sheer insane luck? firepower? morale? All of these? But either way, they pulled through. Now we shall see what happens next year.
The Russians soldiers and people have balls of Steel hahahahaha remember ww2 my friends this war is not over yet
@@user-cj7xk1vi8uBut in Ww2 the USSR was the one being propped up by lend lease. Factories that made T 34's were American made, majority of the trucks were also American.
@@georgethompson913 the factory's dat made the t 34 or Americans made ? Ar you mad really now do you believe your propaganda or this what you learned in school? Hahahaha
@@georgethompson913 lol yes and Migs and Sukhois are actually made by Boeing and Lockheed Martin 😂
Very deep trenches help to give a feeling of safety.
How about taking out an entire train while it's on the track? That's a lot harder to fix than a few rails.
Kiev isn't a military factor since the depletion of it's arsenals in 2022 - NATO has a much more challenging task than severing _a single line of communication_ (which possession didn't help the Wehrmacht on their march unto the oil fields of Baku in 1942, either):
*The Russian Federation has prepared for **_a large-scale war in Europe_** since the de facto rejection of the Munich Speech in 2007* .
The respective *State Armament Program that includes a modernization of the arms industry capacities began in 2010 and was concluded in 2020* - with the exception of remote controlled platforms like the 'Armata' chassis series and the Su-57 (including the Su-70 heavy strike drone and the Su-75 light fighter/unmanned aerial vehicle) which have been pushed into the program for 2018-2027 (with procurement like the Mig-35 modernization as non-priority).
*_All studying of maps_** - like the 'independent' one's of the Kagan and Nuland families - has become pointless for understanding the faction that only intends to attrite losses and to inflict costs, yielding territory in the process* (the Soviets didn't have to take all of Germany to install a regime along the Elbe river).
*The Russian General Staff fights this war largely as it was conceived during the ZAPAD exercise of 1981: with real time command and control through encrypted, wireless broadband across services and units and with **_mass produced guided precision weapons_** for 'non-contact' stand-off strikes ('Reconnaissance Strike Complex' or '-Fire Contour' at the divisional level, real time precision targeting up to 500km) that make **_a distinction between front and rear_** practically irrelevant* (the most painful NATO losses were not inflicted along the trenches, manned with Kiev's conscripts, but in the operational and even strategic rear, including a diplomatic enlargement of BRICS, instead of Russia's isolation).
*All Russian reorganization - **_restoring Combined Arms Regiments, Divisions and Armies_** , beyond mere Combat Brigades or the propagated Battalion Tactical groupings... of the Soviet-Afghan War - and equipment procurement since 2010 reflects this reality while **_Transatlantic planers have projected their own concepts unto the Russian mentality_* , assuming 'all men are created equal' and are thus the same (e.g. equally obsessed with 'area denial' air defenses and awaiting futuristic equipment procurement solutions like 'invisible' aircraft or robot armies that don't have to be recruited in a populist political climate)...
If one has studied e.g. *reports by the Center for Naval Analysis since the 1980s* , the actual *continuity between Soviet and Russian doctrinal planing* is obvious (see e.g. reports by Mary Fitzgerald), the same goes for Soviet sources since Frunze - prioritizing frequent maneuver exercise and it's communications, and conventional warheads on intercontinental arms, with _submarines never leaving their 'Bastion'_ .
The STALINIST Armored Breakthrough as the epitome of Soviet strategy existed only in the minds of NATO officers, from which it was popularized into video games (e.g. MICROPOSE).
That is the reason why this *_world war_** between two power blocs (NATO vs Sino-Russia)* will demand _a wartime economy across the European Union_ , and why the conflict will be escalated into nuclear deployment, regardless of Russian doctrine - given that *the Anglophone elite will never come to terms with an integrated Eurasia that is supreme from Atlantic maritime blockade* (a strategy that goes back all the way to the British Empire and Halford MacKinder)...
Like others before 1914 and 1939, many anticipated the probable outcome of a direct East-West clash for a long time, yet normal people will remain asleep in their blind, _indoctrinated_ routines until they lie in the puddle of their own guts.
Aside stating the fact, there is nothing to be done, anymore.
i just read about some destroyed rail in rodynske. not sure exactly what happened, but something definitely happened.
Expectations? Vain hopes you should say.
The railways are hardly a golden bullet for Russian success but they are difficult to cut. The thing is, the Ukrainians also have remotely laid mines, cluster munitions for the 155mm (and potentially for ATACMS soon as well), and drones.
Russian air-defences definitely improved but in recent months, Ukraine has demonstrated a drastically improved ability to pentrate, and even destroy, them.
I wouldn't want to be a Russian loaded onto one of those WW2 Soviet style cattle wagons for a train ride to the front. It would suck just transiting Russia on one of those heaps... but look at what happened to the armoured trains at the start of the war; they didn’t fare much better than the current wooden crates would.
With the Ukrainian arsenal's capabilities growing each week, it's obvious why the Russians are dependent on trucks and cars to get stuff to frontline forces. The railways are vulnerable but it's ultimately necessary to do so anyway, as railways aren't as extensive as roads and this is why other forces have moved on from basing their critical logistics so heavily on railways.
Naturally, the Ukrainians target Russian forces' logistics and personnel trucks. I wouldn't call the consequences the worst possible outcome for the Russian central command but I certainly wouldn't call the loss of tens of thousands of lives, hundreds of vehicles, at least one logistics ship, a submarine, several headquarters (including the Black Sea Fleet's back-up and primary HQ) and senior officers a good day at the office.
For comparison, how are Russian efforts to cut off Ukrainian grain shipments currently going?
Last I heard, about 30% of Ukrainian grain infrastructure had been damaged or destroyed but shipments were still increasing.
it is quite interesting 🤔 the point of view that you provide in this video. I am a not a strategies expert but .... if we consider for a moment the "great picture" and consider that always an action will have a higher level of attrition reaction from the one who has the upper hand overally., I'd dare to say that if such can materialize the Russian army can really and easily afford to decide to totally play all in in totally dismantling much of Ukrainian railway hubs eg kiev-poland , harkiv etc. it is already a great question about why this is not happening
FYI - the Russians have reportedly almost finished the construction of a railway further south from the main one on the Crimean land bridge, in anticipation of pressure on the main line that is close to LOC.
How much difference will the Falcon and Griffin do?
For a ukrainian victory? none !just gona prolong war!
As long as Russian ignored importance of AWACS and datalink, they would be bagged by them low flying missile and pantsir would be overworked like average man in Gulag..
Russia has never ignored the importance of AWACS, there is always at least one A50 up over either Russia or Belarus working in unison with numerous ground based radar systems, including a couple of powerful OTH arrays.
I would suggest a variation. Use a lot of unguided bombs to take out lots of spots on the railway, enough to make them bring out the automated machines, and then target that machine that repairs them. They probably don't have too many of those.
"Use a lot of unguided bombs to take out lots of spots on the railway" how?
Ukraine is not the US, they don't have a lot of aircrafts, and no one would go to the enemy territory and use unguided bombs, both sides have a lot of air defense
This proxy war is a nightmare for Ukraine, whose widows and orphans grow by thousands each and every day. And it's an economic disaster for the whole of Europe, especially for Germany which had to "accept" the blowing up of the Baltic sea gas pipelines and now has to pay a huge price for both gas and oil. And just imagine what could happen if Iran and Saudi Arabia put an oil embargo as in 1973. Western leaders, especially EU leaders are a bunch of morons, they have accepted and have been fostering a brutal war against their own principles and against their vital economic interests.
You are looking very fit and healthy these days, keep up whatever it is you are doing! Re the offensive "failure", that is a matter of opinion at best, and expectations varied widely prior to it. I'd encourage you to take a look at Perun's recent analysis of Russian military spending, with respect to the prospect of new weapons becoming available. Many pro-Russian commentators paint a similarly bleak picture of Ukraininan acomplishments, capacity and capability, and relative Russian strengths. As mentioned before, negotiation will not happen as negotiation with Russia today, is just putting off the war until tomorrow. And nobody wants to risk the consequences of slaughtering the Russian army (almost guaranteed) in a direct confrontation with NATO.
Perun has great talent, if he only learned to think logically he would be very good
*_Ace._*
see 3:36 ... E/W rail is near the front.
Very interesting point, but I wonder why Ukraine didn't even attempt to cut such important railway line if it is really that near....
U answered yourself.
COULD BE BUT WON'T BE
I read somewhere that Russians are making some rail links in Donbass.
They seem to be one step ahead.
Yes, they are building some new segments to work around the problem but it will take at least many months, likely a couple of years, to be completed.
@@Millennium7HistoryTechдорога уже на половину готова😂 через пару месяцев будет полностью готова
Ya. According to this guy a new railway can't be build
Or railway line can't be redirected
One of the interesting questions is, in fact, why there was no additional work on the railways in the area. It is a question I do't have the answer yet.
@@Millennium7HistoryTech
Maybe the Russians actually know more about what is really happening, it’s not like Ukraine is spewing anything Truthful 🤔
Also Russians are starting to build a new railway in the land bridge part, that will be away from the front line
that explains the importance of Bakhmut
What a mistake Russia made putting down Surovikin. He’s the only commander who did most things right and he is responsible for setting up the amazingly effective fortifications. Ukraine did a great job considering Western planners quickly figured out the fortifications were exponentially better than their planners expected with exponentially denser mining.
It ain’t over yet chico
“severe” “sever”?
You should make a collab video with William Spaniel. :)
This is a light-hearted place but also a serious one
I doubt very much that any of this is news to Gen Zulushny. Get to Topmak means they cut the rail link. The fact is that they cannot and not for lack of trying.
Just as they tried to cut the Kerch link several time and never could occupy it or prevent it being repared quickly. And Crimea is not enough. At this AFU also has to worry about defending Kharkov, Kiev, and Odessa.
Those last statements you made have a very liberal look of things, I assume the most the Russians will achieve with an offensive will be the capture of Kupyansk and the entirety of Luhansk oblast. The Kerch bridge will not be so much of a tough nut if Germany decides to deliver Taurus missiles with their advanced MEPHISTO pentrators.
@@doom8680 Russians are making haste slowly in attacking. The issue for AFU is weaponry, and troop strength after almost 2 years of attrition. UA needs a very high rate of recruitment, training, and replenishment of hardware. But the West appears to be unwilling or unable to supply liberally.
“At this rate they’ll reach the sea in 2 years”. Why would the assumption be at the same rate when Russian defenses are strongest at the front and have been slowly getting penetrated?
I knew someone was going to object this...watch again pleas
I knew someone was going to object this...watch again pleas
How crazy can one be there was never a time Ukraine destroyed the railway bridge in Crimea it was the road span they kept on hitting even while the roadway was closed the train tracks still kept on functioning and delivering war armaments
Rather than attack the rail line, could the Ukrainians not use drones & artillery to attack rail traffic itself? It's the traffic you want to stop, and the traffic (engines, rolling stock, good they're carrying, etc) are more valuable than the rails.
true, knock out the engines of the train, I think drones could do this. If you could blow up the engine and possibly derail the train that would cause a blockage that is difficult to fix. Then blow up the repair equipment.
@@WJV9 I would think drones could provide recon and fire spotting for arty. The artillery in this war seems to be devastating.
@@Splattle101 drones don't have anywhere near the range and in any event Russia EW protecting the trains is guaranteed to be a priority. And no, you can't go behind enemy lines to launch drones, it's trench warfare. There have been incidences of storm shadow being used against train hubs, though.
I forgot about the rail link closer to the front line. The desire to keep it safe may explain the Russian's decision to try and fight more towards the front and contest the battle even beyond the immediate line of contact these past three months. Instead of more willingly trading space for time as I and others anticipated. (although with 100 - 120 km's to the sea though that's not a lot of space to trade with.)
I hold Gerasimov and his ilks in contempt for their tendencies to emphasize the offensive even when it's clear their force quality is not up to it as shown in their waste of a winter offensive. (Surovikin has proven to be very rational by comparison) But in this case, defending forward of the First Line of defenses and ceding space only when necessary appears to be reasonable. The Ukrainians have finally achieved some breaches but as to whether that turns into a breakthrough of operational or strategic import is to be seen.
This is still very much contingent. It can still go either way depending on how both sides play their cards.
Another informative video M7.
rumint has it that it is not used as too dangerous. the effort could be explained as opening it up.
They attritted much of their resources to conceive a breach. I doubt very much if they could make a breakthrough.
@@nooonanoonung6237depends on if Russia also attrited their reserves.
@@nooonanoonung6237 this is probably the last haven of the fog of war. it is unclear how much resources who has left. Judging that some kinds of weapons haven't been seen yet, which means there are Ukrainian reserves that not engaged yet,
Looking at equipment losses from oryx there is a weird, close to equal equipment losses.