To conclude that the US is in decline leads to two questions: 1. Every entity/organism declines long term; the relevant questions are "how healthy now" and "when does it die"; see below. 2. What does decline actually look like? Clearly the US is politically divided and the trad media and social media are fixated on the factors involved... wokeness vs. alt right; institutional racism vs. billionaires; trade deficits and middle class collapse; congressional dysfunction; massive public and private debt; etc. However, viewed with a long lens the current situation is virtually benign compared to what's happened before.. the civil war called the American Revolution (c.30% of Americans did NOT want to break from Britain); the actual Civil War; slavery; the genocidal dispossession of native Americans; Jim Crow and the KKK; the Great Depression and the New Deal; Charles Lindbergh and American Nazis in the 30's; WW2 and the nuclear bombing of Japan; the existential threat of the Cold War; Civil Rights and the Vietnam War in the 60's; massive inflation and recession in the 70's. Since the 80's and especially the 90's US society has been relatively stable even as the industrial base hollowed out and labour's share of national income declined. That has all come to a head with Trump and the MAGA movement, which offers simplistic and wrong-headed solutions to complex problems. There is little doubt that the November election is a tipping point one way or the other. Harris wins and incremental improvements (read those words carefully) continue. Trump wins and the US destabilises itself and the world (Ukraine, Baltics, NATO, Israel/Palestine/Iran, Taiwan, South China Sea), and the Handmaid's Tale ensues. So, to answer my own questions: How healthy? Not great but both medication and vaccines are at hand. When does it die? There is no current obvious replacement as world leader; the only possibility is China and there isn't enough time or space to document its own challenges so I'll limit it to one... uncontrolled ubiquitous corruption. What does decline actually look like? When the dollar is genuinely challenged as the world's reserve currency the US will be in serious trouble. It's not clear when that might happen but it is not imminent. I am not American, nor an apologist for US hegemony or politics. However, most commenters on US decline express wishful thinking, demonstrate recency bias, and do not consider the issues facing the rest of the world.
Coupled with preventing any Palestinian person from addressing the convention, Harris' "most lethal military" speech was both disturbing and disappointingly typical. As naive as it is to expect anything else from an establishment democratic candidate vetted and chosen specifically because they'll maintain the status quo global hegemony, not threaten it, it's still disappointing to witness in the moment. The takeaway for me was that america is a nation in decline. It's not a shining city on the hill, nor is it a beacon of democracy. It's a troubled nation where politicians succeed by invoking myth and nostalgia, and conjuring illusions of "greatness" while doing little to address the corrosive systemic compound inequity that threatens societal and economic cohesion. For many in america, and globally, it won't make any material difference who wins on election day. That's the tragedy of "american democracy".
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To conclude that the US is in decline leads to two questions:
1. Every entity/organism declines long term; the relevant questions are "how healthy now" and "when does it die"; see below.
2. What does decline actually look like?
Clearly the US is politically divided and the trad media and social media are fixated on the factors involved... wokeness vs. alt right; institutional racism vs. billionaires; trade deficits and middle class collapse; congressional dysfunction; massive public and private debt; etc.
However, viewed with a long lens the current situation is virtually benign compared to what's happened before.. the civil war called the American Revolution (c.30% of Americans did NOT want to break from Britain); the actual Civil War; slavery; the genocidal dispossession of native Americans; Jim Crow and the KKK; the Great Depression and the New Deal; Charles Lindbergh and American Nazis in the 30's; WW2 and the nuclear bombing of Japan; the existential threat of the Cold War; Civil Rights and the Vietnam War in the 60's; massive inflation and recession in the 70's.
Since the 80's and especially the 90's US society has been relatively stable even as the industrial base hollowed out and labour's share of national income declined. That has all come to a head with Trump and the MAGA movement, which offers simplistic and wrong-headed solutions to complex problems. There is little doubt that the November election is a tipping point one way or the other. Harris wins and incremental improvements (read those words carefully) continue. Trump wins and the US destabilises itself and the world (Ukraine, Baltics, NATO, Israel/Palestine/Iran, Taiwan, South China Sea), and the Handmaid's Tale ensues.
So, to answer my own questions:
How healthy? Not great but both medication and vaccines are at hand.
When does it die? There is no current obvious replacement as world leader; the only possibility is China and there isn't enough time or space to document its own challenges so I'll limit it to one... uncontrolled ubiquitous corruption.
What does decline actually look like? When the dollar is genuinely challenged as the world's reserve currency the US will be in serious trouble. It's not clear when that might happen but it is not imminent.
I am not American, nor an apologist for US hegemony or politics. However, most commenters on US decline express wishful thinking, demonstrate recency bias, and do not consider the issues facing the rest of the world.
Coupled with preventing any Palestinian person from addressing the convention, Harris' "most lethal military" speech was both disturbing and disappointingly typical. As naive as it is to expect anything else from an establishment democratic candidate vetted and chosen specifically because they'll maintain the status quo global hegemony, not threaten it, it's still disappointing to witness in the moment.
The takeaway for me was that america is a nation in decline. It's not a shining city on the hill, nor is it a beacon of democracy. It's a troubled nation where politicians succeed by invoking myth and nostalgia, and conjuring illusions of "greatness" while doing little to address the corrosive systemic compound inequity that threatens societal and economic cohesion. For many in america, and globally, it won't make any material difference who wins on election day. That's the tragedy of "american democracy".